NORTHERLY

[Sandgroper]

Given the size of the "Northerly Returns" thread, thought I'd start a new one where members can post their comments or views on the great WA champion.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-20 12:21 ]</font>

[Sandgroper]

Interesting interview with Fred Kersley on local ABC radio this morning.

Sees Fields Of Omagh as his main danger on Saturday and throughout Northerly’s current campaign in Melbourne.

Although a small field on Saturday (5 starters last count) he is concerned if run at a muddling pace could play into the hands of Fields Of Omagh – could be we might see Northerly going to the lead early.

What I found even more interesting, was Fred’s comments re Northerly’s reported Sydney plans.

Don’t seem to be set in concrete and Fred even stated that Northerly might return to Perth following his Melbourne campaign.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-20 12:23 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Some interesting stuff there Perth Placegetter. Sticking my neck out a bit and wondering if Northerly might be vulnerable on Saturday :wink:

[Paddy]

Courtesy The West Australian website:

England has joined the growing list of leading racing countries keen to lure WA's champion galloper Northerly out of Australia.

Trainer Fred Kersley, who has put on hold many requests to race Northerly in Dubai's $13 million World Cup, the world's richest race, now has to entertain English hopes.

Like other northern hemisphere fans, Northerly has made the English heads spin, specially with his demolition of top European star Grandera in last season's Group 1 Cox Plate in Melbourne.

Nick Cheyne, Ascot director of racing, yesterday arrived in Melbourne and took Kersley and wife Judy, Northerly's half owner, to lunch.

But Kersley was typically non-committal about the English idea to run Northerly in the $2 million King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes over his 2002 Caulfield Cup-winning distance of 2400m.

The Guy Walter-trained Defier, runner-up to Northerly when the WA star won his second successive Cox Plate, is also high on the list of England.

"There's a lot of water to pass under the bridge before then," Judy Kersley said. "Fred has just added it to the list. He wants to concentrate on the Australian Cup and BMW."

Before Kersley thinks about Europe, Dubai or Singapore, he has Northerly aimed at the $1.25 Australian Cup at Flemington on March 10 and the $2 million BMW Classic in Sydney on April 12.

Northerly has his second run in his latest campaign in the $200,000 weight-for-age St George Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield on Saturday when he renews rivalry with the Tony McEvoy-trained Fields Of Omagh.

Kersley has been pleased with Northerly's progress since his first-up Melbourne fourth to Yell in the Orr Stakes on February 8 when Fields Of Omagh ran a close second.

The 1400m was far too short for Northerly and he is favourite to return to the winners' list at the 1800m of the St George Stakes.

He is an odds-on favourite in early St George fixed odds markets and dominates betting with Fields Of Omagh.

[Mark]

At around 10-11%, backing the others looks good to me. Stranger things have happened.

[Magoo]

The rain in Melbourne should provide a chance for Mr Casanova to add value to the trifecta and if it is on the dead-slow side then Georgie Boy.

Magoo

[ra sun]

never back against a champion!!!!

Northerly all the way no matter what the price. nothing will ever pass it in the straight, its a freak

[Magoo]

Too good - no matter the track condition, Northerly is just too good and any slight hope of exploiting a factor against his class is generally a waste of time (ask B Martin trying his hardest to squeeze out a protest during the race call). With thanks to Kevin Costner: "Here endeth the lesson". Couldn't agree more Ra Sun and the lesson has been learnt. To give him his credit, Mr Martin did concede shortly afterwards his interest was beaten by a better horse, which adds weight to Ra Sun's comments.

[red]

Hi all,
just reading that the 1400m Futurity might be an option for Northerly as Kersley is worried with a 16day break to the Australian Cup the champ won't be at peak fitness. The other 2 options are the 2000m Gold Cup where he'd carry 60kg or strong gallops leading into the big race.
I hope Fred sticks to the strong gallops as he has Sydney and possible International campaign ahead. In fact I will be very interested to see how Northerly handles the Sydney(right handed) way of going, if it's a bother at all. Imagine how the STC will promote the first time appearance of the no.1 galloper of the last 2 years during their carnival. Should pack 'em in like sardines.

[Paddy]

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Trainer Fred Kersley has sprung a surprise by announcing he will enter champion galloper Northerly for Saturday's $400,000 weight-for-age Futurity Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield.

The gelding, who boosted his stake earnings beyond $8 million when he brilliantly won Saturday's St George Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield, looked in top order yesterday.

He is nominal favourite for the $1.25 million Australian Cup (2000m) at Flemington on March 10.

If Northerly tackles the Futurity, classy WA sprinter Old Fashion will be among his rivals. Old Fashion is booked to be flown from Perth tonight and his trainer, Vernon Brockman, has engaged Stephen Miller to ride the Railway Stakes winner on Saturday.

Kersley said yesterday he had added the Futurity to his options in the Australian Cup lead-up because he was worried that Northerly might not be at peak fitness for the rich Flemington race.

The trainer said after the St George Stakes that his star would be nominated for Saturday's $100,000 Victoria Gold Cup over 2000m, a distance which would suit Northerly's program leading to the Australian Cup.

Kersley's consideration of the Futurity Stakes comes as a surprise because stayers rarely switch back to a sprint when heading to a major middle-distance race.

"There is a risk Northerly wouldn't be in peak form at Australian Cup time if he did not start in the previous 16 days," Kersley said yesterday.

"I now consider we have three options in the next fortnight. The Victoria Gold Cup is a handicap over the right distance. It has a 60kg maximum but rivals will have light weights and Northerly is no longer suited by handicaps.

"The Futurity is probably too short for him to be a strong winning prospect but the race has weight-for-age conditions that are ideal for him.

"Our third option is to give him solid trackwork to ensure he's fully fit on Australian Cup day. We'll decide on Wednesday or Thursday morning whether he races at Caulfield again next Saturday."

Northerly, a winner at 13 of his 18 Melbourne starts, delighted Kersley in the St George Stakes. "He was fully tested by Field Of Omagh's challenge to the 200m post but then went to the line with something in reserve," the trainer said.

"Northerly was not stressed by the race and has benefited from it. He pulled up without cuts or bruises."

[Rogan Josh]

Reported in this morning's press that there is still a strong chance that Northerly will run at Caulfield on Saturday in the Futurity Stakes (1400m) or Victoria Gold Cup (2020m).

Kersley will not decide which race to target until after handicaps are declared.

Kersley at this stage is leaning towards the Gold Cup, which has a maximum handicap of 60kg.

Kersley is concerned of the 16-day gap to the Australian Cup, last year there were only nine days between the St George Stakes and the Australian Cup.

[ra sun]

thats it magoo, when northerly raced in his first few lead up races last spring i tried to find something which could beat it and lost every time. come caulfield cup day i wasn't falling for that again and he won me some money that day and also cox plate day, the things a dead set freak, dare i say, UNBEATABLE when fit and over the right distance

[Sandgroper]

Caulfield Saturday - VICTORIA GOLD CUP 2020M - Weights

1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 60
2 GUNNAMATTA Tony Noonan 52
3 MR. CASANOVA Colin Alderson 52
4 LORD ARDSLEY (NZ) Doug Harrison 51
5 ARENA VALADORA David Hall 51
6 CONSULAR Peter Morgan 51
7 MR. TRICKSTER Mick Price 51
8 LADY KNOCKOUT Tony McEvoy 51
9 GUSSY GODIVA (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith 51
10 GALLIC (NZ) Bradley Marzato 51


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-25 18:58 ]</font>

[Sandgroper]

Caulfield Saturday - FUTURITY STAKES 1400M - Nominations

1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 1 58
2 OLD FASHION V A Brockman 4 58
3 TIT FOR TAAT (NZ) Wayne Herbert 6 58
4 AQUIVER John Hawkes 7 58
5 EMISSION Cliff Brown 9 58
6 VIKING RULER Clarry Conners 11 58
7 MR. MAGOO James Riley 12 58
8 EL NINO Tony McEvoy 15 58
9 ROMAN ARCH Robbie Laing 16 58
10 CHOISIR Paul Perry 2 55
11 YELL John Hawkes 5 55
12 TITANIC JACK Tom Hughes (Jnr) 13 55
13 TYCOON RULER Jim Marconi 14 55
14 INNOVATION GIRL Brian Mayfield-Smith 3 52.5
15 BRIEF EMBRACE Peter G Moody 8 52.5
16 LA BELLA DAME Mick Price 10 52.5



_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-25 19:01 ]</font>

[Magoo]

That would have to be the lightest weight Lady Knockout (51kg) has lumped and should be right in the finish. Thanks for the info, Sandgroper.

[Paddy]

LADY KNOCKOUT must be some chance of filling a place, Magoo. Given Northerly is still to reach peak form, I expect GUNNAMATTA and MR. CASANOVA to give the champ a run for his money.

[Paddy]

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Heavyweight jockey Patrick Payne retains the ride on Northerly in the Victoria Gold Cup , Northerly has the maximum limit topweight of 60kg.

Kersley said Heavy Nova, a first-up third at Sandown, would be ridden by Carbery in the Carlyon Cup, a race Northerly won two years ago on his climb to stardom.

He said the 2020m of the Victoria Gold Cup was an ideal step up from the 1800m of last week's St George Stakes in which Northerly trounced arch rival Fields of Omagh.

Although Northerly meets inferior horses to Fields Of Omagh on Saturday, Kersley is mindful of the big weight difference between Northerly and his rivals, a factor which cost him several Perth races.

[Sandgroper]

The final field has fallen away a bit, and MR. CASANOVA is not starting, Paddy.

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley P Payne 4 60
2 GUNNAMATTA Tony Noonan R Wheeler (a) 1 52
3 GUSSY GODIVA (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 6 51
4 LADY KNOCKOUT Tony McEvoy R McLeod 5 51
5 LORD ARDSLEY (NZ) Doug Harrison W Davis 2 51
6 MR. TRICKSTER Mick Price C Newitt (a) 3 51


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-02-27 13:52 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Courtesy The Age website:

Just a week ago, Caulfield trainer Mick Price said he now felt comfortable mixing it with racing's big names, but Price yesterday admitted to being embarrassed and numb after his galloper Mr Trickster claimed the biggest scalp in Australasia by outgunning Northerly in the listed Victoria Gold Cup (2020m) at Caulfield.

While obviously delighted with the upset win, which followed his winning treble on Blue Diamond Stakes day last weekend, Price was stuck for words.

"What do you say? It was a funny race and a fluke result happened. I really don't know how it happened, but I'll take it," Price said.

A fluke it may have been but Price revealed that he and apprentice rider Craig Newitt had decided before the race that as Mr Trickster would carry nine kilograms less than Northerly yesterday, they would make the champion earn victory.

"Our plan was to get out and lead and make him win the race. I thought he would, but my bloke just stuck on and the unbelievable happened," Price said

"It's a bit embarrassing, to tell you the truth."
Mr Trickster ($9) sped away in the straight and then held Northerly ($1.30), who rallied late, by three-quarters of a length. Mornington Cup winner Gunnamatta ($8) was three lengths away third.

Northerly's trainer Fred Kersley said he felt that Northerly had faltered on the track as heavy rain fell before the race, making the surface slippery.

Jockey Patrick Payne said he knew as far out as 700 metres from home that the champion would struggle to win.

"He did slip a few times near the home turn but all credit to the winner," Payne said. "He made us carry our weight (60 kilograms) and we were never really travelling well enough to get to him.

"But he still ran pretty well. When he slipped, it took a bit of confidence out of him as he couldn't really dig into the track," Payne said.

"The last 200 metres was good, though and, I'd have to say, he is still well and truly on track for the Australian Cup."

In 2001, Northerly was beaten in the Victoria Gold Cup by an unknown called Greenstone Charm, but it is a fair bet that more will be heard of Mr Trickster.

The four-year-old gelding yesterday took his earnings to more than $200,000 at his 17th start yesterday.

Mr Trickster had a severe leg injury as a three-year-old when he was shaping as a most promising stayer but Price said he was ready yesterday to test the galloper fully.

Mr Trickster is now likely to go to the autumn carnivals in either Sydney or Brisbane, with Price eyeing a group race success.

An interested onlooker yesterday was trainer Tony McEvoy, whose best galloper, Fields Of Omagh, has chased Northerly unsuccessfully since last spring.

"It shows it can happen," McEvoy said of the upset.

"If only it would happen to us," he added.

[red]

I see the knives already out for the champ,talk like Lonhro's time has come etc., the positive out of yesterday I guess is that Fred now knows what work there is to be done before the Australian Cup, also considering the Sydney/International campaign ahead and his pattern of last prep. especially, he's not at his peak this early.
Maybe also Payne won't ride such a pretty race in future.
Hoping for a good-fast track on March 10th.

I fail to see why a jockey of Payne's ability did not take Northerly to the lead and set his own pace.In a field of 6 and giving away so much weight,the only possible way he could have lost was the way he did,chasing a lightweight frontrunner who made him carry his weight.I note with interest that Mick Price worked this out,why couldn't Fred and Paddy?I also note that Paddy said he was slipping in the slippery ground,and doubted that he could win at the 700 metre mark,so why didn't he make a forward move earlier?I realise that Northerly is not a noted frontrunner,but surely in a field of 6 with 60kgs,wouldn't it have been a smarter move to lead,and make the lightweights try to run him down?I doubt that any of them would have,including the winner,who basically has to lead to win,as shown in his past performances.Maybe Fred and Paddy got to carried away with all the accolades in the press,and thought they only had to go around to win,no matter where he was ridden!I just hope it has brought both of them back to earth.Northerly is a champion,and will no doubt win a lot more races,but he'll also lose more than he should if ridden like that again.I would like to see Greg Childs,Corey Brown or Chri Munce on his back!

[topsy99]

working on times northerly had the worst time performance last start leading into this race.
he gave mr. trickster 8 lengths on times.
i didnt tip him. i didnt back him and i think his run was very good.

i would say he could have used a harder run in the st george but running in small fields doesnt often smarten them up enough particularly as his weight was high and he was giving a fair bit away.
as i said i think it was a good run.

[Paddy]

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Champion galloper Northerly, a shock loser on Saturday, cannot be faulted and connections are confident he will bounce back to win next Monday's $1.25 million Australian Cup at Flemington.

The gelding was among several fancies who failed to handle slippery conditions at Saturday's Caulfield meeting when he ran second with 60kg in the Victoria Gold Cup.

"It was also a case of him again being vulnerable in handicaps," trainer Fred Kersley said.

Northerly, a winner 11 times in 15 weight-for-age races, has been beaten at five of his past seven starts under handicap conditions.

Kersley indicated yesterday his confidence in the $8 million stake-earner had not been dented. The trainer inspected stables in Sydney and confirmed Northerly's NSW autumn carnival program.

"I've looked at Rosehill, Warwick Farm and Canterbury facilities, searching for the best place to stable Northerly when he comes here," Kersley said. "He will be based at Rosehill, the venue for his first two Sydney races."

Northerly is scheduled to run in the $400,000 Ranvet Stakes (2000m) on March 29 and the $2 million BMW (2400m) a fortnight later.

[Touchy]

I'm now awaiting the"post mortum"(spelling),on the race,would of had to be a watch only with the price $1.20 a win,small field,& not one mention of the winner in the prepost washup from you lot,great horse but jeeze all the hype!!,to tell the truth I got more enjoyment(& money$2.20)from a 9 length winner at Toowoomba on Sat than the "big" race.But what would I know only being a mug.Better punting to you all.Touchy,><>.

[xanadu]

Angel,

You do't think that to Fred this was only a glorified track gallop with no real concern whether Northerly won or not? I suspect he only wanted to give him a hit-out.
Agreed, he had to go back in distance from his previous run but "champions" can do this. Kingston Town was able to mix distances against top quality opposition and still win.
It is open to conjecture whether Northerly is in "the King's" class.
I was wary of this race as I thought it may turn out as it did. As we say in punting circles, it was a potential "wealth hazard" although, at $1.10 place tote, it was better than you can get at any bank(btbi.....better than bank interest).

heers.

Xanadu,I'm not suggesting that Northerly wasn't trying,I would just have liked to have seen him ridden a bit more aggressively.Because of the fact that Paddy Payne sat and sat,even though he later admitted Northerly wasn't comfortable on the slippery surface,did they think that it was a lay down misere,no matter how the race was run?He had a soft win the start before,so I don't think he is anywhwere near fit,and the Australian Cup,plus WFA races in Sydney are obviously the races he has been set for.I don't think that Greg Childs would have sat there like that on Sunline!I know that comparisons are odious,but Northerly would have to show me a lot more before I would put him in Kingston Town or Sunline's class!He does mix his distances,but not with the same degree of success as the other two.Maybe he is strictly WFA performer?As a previous poster pointed out,he has been beaten in 5 out of his last 7 handicap events.As for you being a mug Touchy,I don't think so!Much smarter to do what you did than follow the hype and take the skinny odds.I know I didn't,and never will.Follow the old late and great Ken Howard adage,"never bet odds on,never run up steps!".Words of wisdom if ever I've heard any.Cheers

[xanadu]

Angel,

Firstly, if Northerly wasn't fit don't you think the stewards are culpable for letting the trainer present a horse for racing when he is not at his best?
Secondly, some punters steer away from odds-on betting and this is good for me as on some occasions I may have assessed a runner as a 1/10 prospect and have been able to secure 4/5 or evens thereby achieving a favourable percentage advantage(arbitrage transaction). More precisely, if I can get a significant percentage overlay regularly then this increases the prospects of maintaining a long-term winning strategy. I stress here that I certainly do not bet exclusively on short-priced runners as I usually seek out any value on offer. However, when the opportunity presents itself I will invest heavily on the short priced runner offering a significant percentage overlay.

See ya buddy.

Xanadu,thanks for the reply old mate,always good to hear from you.As for stewards being "culpable"as you so succintly put it,well that's another topic of discussion.I don't really want to open a can of worms here,but how many times can you look at a race and eliminate certain runners from contention because it is only going around to get race fitness?Prime example:Bart Cummings has stated how many miles he has to get into a stayers legs in preparation for a Melbourne Cup.So for instance,if Rogan Josh began it's preparation for a Cup stint in a 1000metre sprint,what chance would give it of winning?None.But do the stewards tell Bart it can't go around because it is not fit?No.I gues it's just part of the racing game,and being able to assess the ones that can't win that enables us to keep our nose in front.I'm not saying that Northerly wasn't fit,what I am saying is that I don't think he was 100% fit,as he is being aimed at far richer plums than the race he contested on Saturday.I'm also sure that wilet mentor would have told Paddy Payne not to knock him about too much if he didn't think he could win at the 500 metre mark.As for taking shorts,I see your point in the way you approach it with your own assessments,but I myself will NEVER bet odds on.My own cutoff point is 6/4.
Cheers mate,talk to ya soon
P.S.
Have you been "dutching" the leading stables runners as I suggested?I got Laguna Lake atgood odds,did you have anything on it?

[xanadu]

No, unfortunately I didn't but I can recommend our fellow forum subscribers that they monitor this angle.

[xanadu]

Another method which estimates whether a horse is fit or unfit to race is the bloodcount on the morning of the race, or more practical, the day before, and duly reported in the press. So what...., it may cost more to do so , which will inevitably be passed on to we the punters, but it may also prevent us backing losers on which we placed speculative bets , believing they were fit for racing.
I am very adamant about this subject as I believe that it tells you whether class horses coming back early in their preparation are fit and ready to contest the race in question.

[xanadu]

Top o' the mornin' to you Paddy!

Your point in an earlier post regarding Northerly's history in handicap races is very valid and it confirms that the betting public maybe should have shied away from this race.

Good to ye!

[Paddy]

AUSTRALIAN CUP - 2000m

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley P Payne 8 58
2 DON EDUARDO (NZ) Lee Freedman D Oliver 4 58
3 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy G Childs 3 58
4 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker Steven King 6 58
5 MR. TRICKSTER Mick Price N Callow 7 58
6 BORELLI (NZ) Robbie Laing 2 58
7 OSCA ERIC Gary Farrell D Nikolic 1 58
8 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison C Williams 5 53.5



Looks a very disappointing field to me.

NORTHERLY to reign supreme.

I’ll be coupling with FIELDS OF OMAGH, DISTINCTLY SECRET, NATURAL BLITZ and DON EDUARDO in the multiples.

[ra sun]

fields of omah to win if northerly doesnt see it, the only way to beat it is if he doesnt know ya there otherwise northerly all the way. big quinella tip. two horse race

[Paddy]

06 AUSTRALIAN CUP
2000 Metres
2:45pm


WIN/PLACE
1 1.60 1.20
8...............3.00
2.............N.T.D.

QUINELLA (1-8) 6.20
EXACTA (1-8) 9.60
TRIFECTA
(1-8-2) 54.50
FIRST 4
(1-8-2-5) 228.40

(1) NORTHERLY (PATRICK PAYNE)
(8) NATURAL BLITZ (C.WILLIAMS)
(2) DON EDUARDO (DAMIEN OLIVER)

SCR - 6

[Paddy]

Courtesy Thoroughbred News website:

The champion racehorse Northerly stood up to be counted on today and he did so in most impressive fashion by thrashing the field in the $A1.25m, Group 1, Australian Cup, WFA, 2000m by four lengths.

Northerly (Serheed-North Bell, by Bellwater) was beaten in his last start in the Victoria Gold Cup at Caulfield under a big weight but it was back to weight-for-age conditions at Flemington. Jockey Patrick Payne was taking no prisoners right from the barriers opening. Payne took the six-year-old to the lead and set a tempo that dictated to the field exactly what they would have to do to be better. Don Eduardo (NZ) came alongside as they cruised past the 900m mark and he then tracked Northerly to the entrance to the straight.

Payne quickened and Northerly was just idling waiting to go faster. Don Eduardo was burnt off and then Payne pressed the pedal. With his head held high Northerly showed a wonderful turn of foot and he was two lengths clear, three lengths and then four as the post went past. It was a galloping exhibition that was of the highest order and worthy of the Group 1 win.

The three-year-old Natural Blitz carrying 53.5kg went past Don Eduardo for second by a long head who faltered just 100m from the post after trying hard for the distance and taking the race to the champion. Mr Trickster was fourth, Fields Of Omagh a disappointing fifth and Distinctly Secret sixth. The time was 2.01.47, the last 600 in 34.84.

This remarkable horse was running his 31st race and he has won 19 of them, placed in another seven and taken his prize money to $A8,855,950. Sydney now beckons and the $A400,000, Group 1, Ranvet Stakes, 2000m at Rosehill on March 29th, 2003.

[Chrome Prince]

Fields Of Omagh was found to be sore in the foreleg after the race and waiting on reports as to the extent of the injury.

I'm hoping it's not the same leg as injured before,otherwise could be out for quite some time or even retired.

Kudos to the champ Northerly though, who ran a magnificent race and won like a true Champion.

Only goes to prove my point.....why did Patrick Payne not take Northerly to the front the start before????? Where was Mr Trickster today,when he could not dictate his own terms in front????? Where would he have been laststart,if Northerly had led?????Too many unanswered questions for my liking.Why didn't the stewards query Payne's tactics the start before?No doubt if they had,would have told that Northerly is a better horse ridden from behind the pace.Where would that theory have stood after today' debacle?????? I rest my case.

[TESTAROSSA]

Angel416 ,

Agree with you about Paddy Payne not taking Northerly closer to Mr Trickster the start before , but i think the weight might have been the difference in this race not the positioning of both horses in yesterdays race.

[ra sun]

too true testarossa. youve hit the nail right on the head there. id say they were using the gold cup as a barrier trial of the aussie cup, i know which one id prefer win

[Paddy]

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Northerly, who has thrived since boosting his stake-earnings to $8.8 million by brilliantly winning last Monday's Australian Cup at Flemington, will be flown from Melbourne to Sydney tonight.

He worked clockwise over 1800m for jockey Patrick Payne at Caulfield on Saturday morning.

"We are due to fly out at 7pm and he should be at his Warwick Farm stable within 2½ hours," Kersley said.

Northerly will contest Saturday week's $400,000 Ranvet Stakes (2000m) and the $2 million BMW (2400m) on April 12.

[Paddy]

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Lonhro will not be there but champion Northerly may face up to eight opponents in Saturday's Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill, including Australian Cup placegetters Natural Blitz and Don Eduardo.

Trainer Doug Harrison will decide later this week whether to start three-year-old Natural Blitz in the Group 1 Ranvet or the Sky High Stakes (1900m) on the same program for his first Sydney appearance.

There were fears the presence of Northerly would scare trainers off but he will not have it all his own way if all the entrants start.

Republic Lass, who finished third to Northerly in the Caulfield Cup, will be there along with dual Group 1 winner Carnegie Express and Chipping Norton Stakes placegetter Dress Circle.

The John Hawkes-trained Freemason, fifth in the Caulfield Cup, is another definite starter. "Who knows, he could fluke second," Hawkes said.

Rounding off the nominations are Manner Hill and grand stager Ears' Ronny.



Champion galloper Northerly, to make his Sydney race debut in next Saturday's $400,000 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill, yesterday passed a vital direction change test with flying colours.

The powerful six-year-old Serheed gelding, galloping clockwise for the first time under racing conditions, ran a fast-finishing second at the Warwick Farm barrier trials.

Race rider Patrick Payne said the $8.8 million stake earner comfortably handled his switch from Perth and Melbourne's anti-clockwise racing to the clockwise galloping in Sydney.

"I'm now much more confident that he will also be superior in Sydney races," Payne said after the trial. "He jumped well, settled behind leaders and was in fourth position, about eight lengths from frontrunners nearing the home turn.

"Northerly cornered very well although I could feel he was still learning how to handle his new direction. He ran on strongly near the rails to finish within a half-neck of the winner, without being extended. With the benefit of that experience, his clockwise galloping action should be spot on for the Ranvet Stakes."

Trainer Fred Kersley said he was delighted with Northerly's adaption to the clockwise direction.

"I'm very happy with how he went," Kersley said. "More importantly, Patrick Payne was most satisfied by the way he galloped in this direction. Everything is on target."

Northerly, a brilliant winner in the $1.25 million Australian Cup (2000m) at Flemington on March 10, was flown to Sydney last Monday night and he is stabled at Warwick Farm.

His main NSW target is the $2 million BMW (2400m) at Rosehill on April 12. After the BMW, Kersley will decide whether to set Northerly for a showdown with star performers Lonhro and Defier in the $750,000 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Randwick on May 3.

[Paddy]

Current NSWTAB win odds for the RANVET STAKES (2000m) on Saturday:

107 Northerly $1.60 $0.00
100 Carnegie Express $7.50 $0.00
106 Natural Blitz $7.50 $0.00
108 Republic Lass $7.50 $0.00
101 Don Eduardo $12.00 $0.00
102 Dress Circle $16.00 $0.00
105 Manner Hill $17.00 $0.00
104 Freemason $51.00 $0.00
103 Ears' Ronny $151.00 $0.00

At this stage (pending final field line-up) I believe Northerly is not a good thing and poor value (at odds on) and have already backed a couple of others that I believe are realistic chances and good value at the moment. Will include Northerly in the exotics, as he is still obviously the one to beat.

[BettyBoop]

(1) Northerly, (4) Dress Circle, (5) Manner Hill & (3) Carnegie Express

[red]

Paddy,if you followed your own advice you cleaned up. Have a smiling Sunday.

[Paddy]

Yes red, I did do well & made a nice profit. I had an inkling that Northerly would be vulnerable first time the "opposite" way of going under race conditions.

You could see he lacked his usual confidence in the straight and was not comfortable, turning his head towards Republic Lass and having a good stare at such a critical stage of the race did not help.

Hopefully we will see the real Northerly next time around & we might even get better odds :wink:

[partypooper]

Ah! paddy you are the best, if only I had your insight, must be great! Could you give me just "ONE" piece of advice that would either improve my strike rate, or at least put me OFF some losers??

[Mark]

Just one......never bet odds on.


:smile:

[Mark]

Let me add to that, never bet odds on on horses, one on one sports are a different matter.

[Paddy]

Courtesy The West Australian website:

Champion racehorse Northerly needs more "match practice" if he is to win the $2 million BMW (2400m) at Rosehill on April 12.

That is the opinion of top trainer Fred Kersley following the defeat of Northerly in last Saturday's Ranvet Stakes, when he ran a short half head second to Republic Lass.

Kersley is following a plan that has proved a great success in the past with Northerly, who performs at his best when racing in consecutive weeks.

Kersley has nominated Northerly for Saturday's Manion Cup (2400m) at Rosehill and he will then race a week later in the BMW.

"He needs the match practice racing the right hand way of racing in Sydney and he also needs the racing to bring him to his top," he said.

"He pulled up well from the run, but he indicated he really needed the run."

Northerly is likely to carry top weight (61kg) in the Manion Cup.

"He prefers his racing when coming off a short break and I would feel more comfortable if he was going into the BMW with another run under his belt," Kersley said.

"The only other option I had was to run him against Lonhro and Defier in a 1500m race at Rosehill on Saturday, and that would not have been the best option."

Kersley was also aware that Northerly was a "little lost" on the home turn on Saturday, when having his first run in the Sydney direction of racing.

"He'll get a lot out of the run experience-wise, but it was obvious that it was new to him under the race conditions," he said.

"There were lots of things not ideal for him on Saturday. He was flown to Sydney, in new stabling, and the environment was all different for him.

"He was brave in defeat and certainly not at the top of his game.

"One thing that was overlooked on Saturday was how good the mare Republic Lass was in winning. She's a very good mare, but it will be different next time."

Northerly was one of 12 nominations yesterday for the Manion Cup, but the Sydney Turf Club has extended nominations until today.

[xanadu]

Paddy,

You are an experienced punter, so don't you think that Fred may give his charge a run in an unsuitable race to "top" him up for future events?
He's done it before, so I suggest that we be wary about the champ's program as it can be a "wealth hazard" unless you invest in the ratio of 1w 5pl.

Cheers.

[partypooper]

I'm still waiting for "insight" rather than "hindsight" (tongue firmly in cheek)

[Rogan Josh]

ROYALE CORPORATE CUP 2400M - Rosehill 5th April

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley P Payne 1 61
2 STOWAY Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 11 54
3 BEDOUIN John O'Shea H Bowman 6 53.5
4 BEAU Myffy Rae D Oliver 2 53
5 CURATA STORM John Hawkes R M Quinn 3 53
6 GRAMPIANS John Hawkes D Beadman 13 53
7 GRAND CITY Gai Waterhouse J Cassidy 12 53
8 ICY PRIDE Shaun Dwyer C Carmody 9 53
9 LAGUNA LAKE (USA) Gai Waterhouse C Munce 5 53
10 MAJESTICALLY (NZ) Jack Denham Steven King 10 53
11 MR. TRICKSTER Mick Price D Nikolic 7 53
12 RISING HEIGHTS (NZ) Howie Matthews G Childs 4 53
13 TERRIFIC TAURUS Diane Poidevin-Laine J Innes 8 53


I rated Northerly's last run around 1.25len below his best for the distance, so expect further improvement.

I see his main dangers on Saturday as 2 - STOWAY, 5 - CURATA STORM, 6 - GRAMPIANS, 10 MAJESTICALLY.

[BettyBoop]

(1) Northerly - if the champ replicates his Caulfield Cup run, he will win easily.

(2) Stoway & (6) Grampians the main dangers.

(12) Rising Heights my longshot. From NZ winning 6 from 20 starts. Untried this distance but could surprise.

[ra sun]

trying to pick one to beat the champ but finding it very hard even considering his weight.

#1 Notherly
#9 Laguna Lake
#2 Stoway
Roughy-#12Rising Heights

[partypooper]

I'll just settle for "INSIGHT" before the race rather than "HINDSIGHT" later!!!!!!
(Tongue STILL firmly in cheek!)

[Sandgroper]

It seems to me that Paddy made his point before the race partypooper, if that is what you are on about :wink:


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2003-04-04 23:54 ]</font>

I do not think that Northerly can win.Every time he has to carry more than 58kgs he is found wanting.Weight will stop a train.Never bet odds on,never run up steps.Mr.Trickster likely to lead again,if not him,something else will set a fast tempo and make him carry his weight.Patrick Payne will have it in his head(if Mr.Trickster leads)that he has to be closer this time.That will bring him undone.Also Fred Kersley has already"given the hint"that he was forced to run him this week because he needs more experience at the Sydney way of racing before next weeks BMW,which is obviously is the main target for him.So the excuse was there for him last week,and it is already in place for him on Saturday,should he lose.
I am not saying that he can't win,I'm just saying that I don't think he will,so it opens up some value in the race.
I personally am going to dutch book these runners to beat him.

Stoway
Bedouin
Beau
Grand City
Laguna Lake
Majestically
Mr.Trickster

I don't normally dutch book that many horses,but with him stifling the market,it will be possible,and a good result is on the cards,providing one champion called doesn't spoil my party!!!

Partypooper,where did you dig that name up man??I just wanted you to read my previous post,that is my insight,and I hope that I don't end up with egg all over my face in hindsight!!!
Cheers,angel

[Mark]

Good old Northerly, beaten at odds on again.


:grin:

[partypooper]

Angel, you are right again, I picked the name purely as a reflection of my own failure, i.e. EVERY idea that I've scrutinised, (mine or others) always falls in aheap. YET I'm still searching, maybe I should have called myself the "ETERNAL OPTIMIST" but alas "one Swallow has never made a SPRING")

[partypooper]

and as I said, I'm STILL waiting for "INSIGHT"??????

Northerly goes under again.Thank you Patrick Payne.Great ride once again.As I stated in a prior post,I bet against him.I managed to narrow my dutch book down to 4 runners,and luckily Grand City was one of those 4!Was able to show a profit of $1000 on the race for an outlay of only $200.Thank you again Paddy Payne.If Fred Kersley does not give him the flick after that ride,there is definitely a conspiracy in place.I will say here and now he cannot win the BMW if P.Payne rides him.Damien Oliver or Greg Childs on board,he wins his last 2 starts guaranteed.And will win the BMW with one of those two on board,and at backable odds!!

Partypooper,you should change your name to Jethro Tull,you are as thick as a brick man!!Insight?????Did you not read my prior post???Before the race?Did I not give you the "insight"that Northerly would not win,and advise you which horses to back to beat him?Is that not insight?Do you want all the Northerly fans on this forum to say something to you?Northerly is a champion,but even champions get beaten sometimes.I did try to give you some "insight"as to how and why he could be beaten,but obviously it went way above your head.I promise I won't try again.To all the Northerly fans,pray that Fred sees the light and changes jockeys.Paddy is not agressive enough for a bulldog like Northerly.It's as simple as that.

[partypooper]

Thankyou angel, but all I saw was NORTHERLY< NOERTHERLY, NORTHERLY, not the other one what was it Grand something?????

Let me see a scanned copy of your betting ticket????

[partypooper]

oh! shit must have got the wrong race!!!!

[partypooper]

Angel, although we are by now arched enemies, (by all accounts) let it be known that I "ALWAYS" give credit where it's due,...... so congradts. on Airlie Bird, well done!! (from the heart)

Thank you for your kind words,obviously did not read my post,when I gave you "INSIGHT"and advised you and anyone else who cared to take notice as to which horses I thought could win.Grand City paid $20+ up here,but you didn't take heed.Don't blame me if you mixed up your races,although I fail to see how.And NO,you cannot and never will scan my betting tickets.Did you take my tip for Airlie Bird?No,mixed up the races.

Partypooper aka Jethro Tull,let it be known"by all accounts"that I am not your enemy(or your enema!)I don't seek any kudos for tipping Airlie Bird.I just hope you and lots of people on the forum had something on it!Please read my posts before you decide to get up me in the future,and you and I will get along just fine.I have no intentions of getting involved in a slanging match with you.I have to much respect for Neil and Guy to ever do that.Cheers,angel416

[TESTAROSSA]

Will you give it up Angel416 , why is it when there are insults or slanging matches you are at the centre of them , how many people are there left on the forum that you haven't had a go at 4,5....

If you don't ask for any kudos on some good tips than why do you pipe up and congratulate yourself on the forum and tell everyone how good you did and that everyone should have listened to you????

I don't see you congratulate yourself when you pick losers, most people who post tips have the decency to give the results of there tips whether they were good or bad, when they have a good day they don't all of a sudden pipe up and say i hope everyone listened to me and when they have a bad day just say nothing.

BettyBoop tipped Zabarra in the Newcastle Newmarket last week at 30/1 and she didn't ask for any credit or congratulations on her tip, i'm just glad you didn't tip it or we would still be hearing about it.

[xanadu]

G'day angel,

I could not agree more! It was a "payneful" ride from P. Payne but we should have seen it coming! It was a primer for next week and luckily i did not do too much on it. When are the stewards going to do something about these shenanigans?
As for Fred, "red hot" comes naturally to him having made his name in the 'red hots" so he is immune to being booed for having odds on favs beaten. All in all it gives racing a bad feel and can cause harm to the industry.

Cheers.

Testarossa,thank you,point taken.I have just re-read some of my previous posts,and you are absolutely right.I didn't realise I had offended so many people.
Au Revoir

[partypooper]

ANGEL, dont let it go to your head, my note was out of common courtesy, deserved for clearly tipping Airly Bird clearly BEFORE the race. No I didn't back it, I would be evenmore broke than I am if I backed all the tips here.
My tongue in cheek attitude, does get up some people, but I have never resorted to hissing obsenities!! Read back over some of your previous posts (disagreements) and see who is the agressive one!