Laying False favs 29% POT

[Bhagwan]

For those who like Laying the false Fav.

One could even Dutch the field to win , leaving these Lays out .
For a very tidy profit.

The real art in Laying is to see if we can be successful taking on the $4.50 & less shots to fall over- not an easy task.
Anything under 21%SR and we have made a very good profit.

These runners showing 20-24% Win SR seem to be over bet with the general public.

Getting the fav SR down from 30%SR to 20%SR is usually a difficult exercise.
Maybe this has legs.
Maybe someone with a larger data base could check these figures for mid week.

One could use the pre-post market to get initial selections & go from there

81% SR
29% POT


RULES
Target 1st & 2nd Favs

Win SR 20-23%

10+ runners

Lay Price 2.00-4.50




There were 174 selections for the System
There were 141 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 81.03%
You had to pay out $114.01 but brought in $165.3 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $51.29 or a percentage profit/loss of 29.48%

The Rules used were : WinPriceLay >= 2 and WinPriceLay <=4.5 and priceRank < 90 and priceRank >= 1 and priceRank <=2 and winStrikeRate >= 20 and winStrikeRate <=23 and runners >= 10

[aussielongboat]

Apart from data fitting what is the significance of win SR 20-23%.


cheers
aussie

[Bhagwan]

The logic being that nearly every system one has seen , based on form, uses that percentage range in the rules somewhere, when it comes to Handicapping a race.

Thus, they tend to be over bet by the general public.
Thus their market price is less than their true price ability to win the race.

Remember the art in laying is taking on horses priced below their true value chance of winning.
Example
Live market price 4.50
Accessed price chance 5.00 (20% chance of winning)

Therefore if I can successfully keep doing this for this price range for example.
over 100 races all exactly 4.50 & only win 20% of their races.
4.50 x 20 = Payout 90.00
Outlay 100
Prof +10
10% POT

Also 2nd Favs are more vulnerable to falling over than say the 1st favs
2nd favs general SR is 20%
This gives us a strong base to start with.

That's the general idea of why it works.

Like always with these things .
Its imperative that you do your own due diligence checks before betting any real money on any system one wishes to pursue, over approx 150 bets.
Or over another data base, using unseen data.
Then go from there.