Target Betting Blog

[thorns]

I know it usually starts fights talking about target betting, but found this blog the other day which is an interesting read and details one guys go at target betting, currently up around $190k since July 2010.

You'd need to have a high pain threshold thats for sure, and I know there no way I could do it, but some interesting reading none the less (does babble on here and there).

http://targetbetting.blogspot.com

[moeee]

Thank You for posting that Link Thorns.

I don't know if reading it will improve my situation , but it can't make it any worse :(

[thorns]

Been doing some thinking about target betting today.
Can someone confirm my numbers here.

If you have a 25% strike rate, your chances of striking a winner within 15 bets is 98.89%, is that figure correct?

Secondly, if you were targetting $10 a series at an average dividend of 3.5, your total outlay for 13 losing bets would be $783.71.

So with a 25% and $3.50 you have a LOT of 12.5%

Can someone check those numbers? If they are correct I will continue with a theory here, which if I'm being honest, there must be some flaws in, but on a spreadsheet the numbers seem to crunch nicely which doesnt quite compute in my head.

[Barny]

$783.71 is a lot of money to put on a horse that is a 2-1/2 to one chance of winning. Do I assume that this bet is because you're losing $2,732.98 and you're trying to get those losses back PLUS be $10 in front ?? If so, you taking 273 to one ON (in the RED) about a 5/2 shot.

[Barny]

No, it's 77 to one ON, isn't it ??

[thorns]

$783.71 is a lot of money to put on a horse that is a 2-1/2 to one chance of winning. Do I assume that this bet is because you're losing $2,732.98 and you're trying to get those losses back PLUS be $10 in front ?? If so, you taking 273 to one ON (in the RED) about a 5/2 shot.
$783 would be the total you'd be out of pocket if you lost on the 13th bet, the 13th bet would be around $226 by my calculations.

If those original figures are correct that I posted re the SR and chance of a winner in 15 bets, it seems to make a profit in theory IF for example.

You wait for two loosers before commencing betting and then start your series. You would therefore expect a winner 98.9% of the time before you stopped on bet 13. So 98.9 series out of 100 would win $10, and 1.11 series out of 100 you would blow $783.

So winning would be:
$989 (98.9*10)

Losses
869 (1.11*783)

Therefore profit of $120.......

Obviously there is alot of assumption there with the dividends, but long term if your av divi is 3.5, it should in theory work out, you might have one series where you lose more that 869, and some series where you lose less.......

Thats what my spreadsheet seems to suggest, it doesnt seem right to me though, as it goes against everything I've ever thought about punting.......its just that blog got me thinking.


Wether it actually worked in practice is another story altogether.

[thorns]

Or my head could be playing tricks on me (wouldnt be the first time), and I have my numbers all muddled up (I did fail stats at school!)


Putting this up for discussion more than anything, not saying this is 100% accurate.

[Barny]

I corrected myself thorns. You'd be out of pocket $783, as you correctly said. Who would have the kahunas to do this tho' ?

Good article.

[thorns]

I know I sure as heck dont have the cahunas, if you could dettach yourself from the value of money perhaps, but it would be a tough nut to put it all on the line.

[Barny]

thorns, you're betting $783 to win $10 ..... that's 77 to one ON.

That's about $1.02 isn't it ?? ..... for a $3.50 chance.

[thorns]

You'd be betting $226 to win $793.


$783 is what you would have lost at the end of a 13 run series if it looses.

[Barny]

I'll go kick my dog and get back to you .................

[The Ocho]

I hope not your darkydog!

[thorns]

I'll go kick my dog and get back to you .................
LOL, say sorry to your dog.

I think I see what you are getting at, different wavelengths here.

But yes effectively you are on the 13th you are risking 783 to win $10......

[norisk]

As I posted in another thread, a mate of mine did a packet chasing shortpriced NRL favourites betting on them in a manner not too different to that suggested in the blog.

Not saying it cant be done...just never seen anyone come close to doing it & as pointed out by others, big amounts are being risked to win a pittance & thats just nuts IMHO.

[Shaun]

The guy lost all credibility when he started saying that black jack card counting was useless, yeah right i don't see baccarat players being banned from casinos.

This is just loss chasing and doomed to failure.

[Barny]

Nah, not different wavelengths thorn, just the old brain about to explode ..... wots left of it that is.