Some Friday Greyhound Markets

[moeee]

Traralgon Race 5

3 OUR BUDDY $2.6
1 STARRING NEO $6.7
6 BARKARDI GIRL $7.8
4 FLIGHT CONTROL $8.1
2 SWIFT AMY $14
7 NEWFIRE CHARGED $16
8 QUINBERLY SOUPY $20
5 WHERE'S THE DANE $25

Seems a good race to take the top selection blonk in Exotics

[moeee]

Traralgon Race 7

1 GOTTA CHANCE $1.8
3 OMEGA ELI $5.8
6 OUR BLUE MOON $12
8 BUMP INTO YOU $14
5 BELLEMIE $25
2 LACEY UNDERALL $33
4 CHAINS OF FIRE $36
7 HOTLIPS CUTIE $40

If not for the query about first start at the track , the top selection would be money for jam.

[moeee]

Traralgon Race 8

1 DIN'S ECHO $3.2
6 BIG STUD $5.2
3 LIBERTY SPEED $7.5
4 BIG BLUE ROOSTER $7.8
8 VELOCETTE MISS $12
7 THEATRICAL GIRL $14
2 HENRY STOMPER $16
5 WICKED WARLORD $50

have no idea how to wager here , but I sure as sunrise would like to get some of that $12 about 6 BIG STUD in The Watchdog Market

[moeee]

Traralgon Race 9

5 ALWAYS PUZZLED $4.8
6 SCHERZINGER $5.2
8 CHEWY'S GIRL $8.2
4 ZINGARELLA $8.4
2 YORGI MILO $9
3 RICEY $12
1 COOBOO $12
7 METRIC WAVES $14

As can be seen I have found this Race the Most Open as can be ever be found.
Good Luck.

[moeee]

Geelong Race 4

7 EARLY RETURN $4.3
5 SONIC CHICK $6
1 IMA HARLEY $6.6
6 SHANLYN TWIGLEY $9.2
8 SANZ SURPRIZE $9.3
4 PROVEN BREEZE $10
3 FASTER THAN YOU $12
2 SPEEDASTIC $16

As can be seen , nothing obvious again.

[moeee]

Geelong Race 5

8 PROVEN MADDY $3.1
6 SUPER TRAIN $5.5
7 GOTTA BE JOLLY $7.6
5 JOAN BALE $9.4
1 MARCUS GIRL $11
2 SUPER NITRO $12
4 COOL COOL CHARM $20
3 BOWL ALONG $30

Pretty sure the top selection wins this , so the door is open to bag some xotics here by taking it blonk.

[moeee]

RACE 6

3 WHODAT LASS $3.9
7 KUUSOU RUMBA $4.1
8 PRANCING JOE $6
5 JAMAICAN RUBY $7.2
2 DR. BAILEY $14
6 DONGY $16
4 WHERE'S BETTY $20
1 DARRYL'S FUTURE $60



RACE 7

5 CLASSY MALDINI $2.1
8 SCORSESE $7
3 FANCY DIAMOND $8.5
6 SUPER PAYMENT $11
2 ZABER $12
1 INDEPENDENT LASS $16
4 GREYWINDS FONZ $25

Should be a put and collect here but make sure you get over Even Money



RACE 8

1 ARVO'S VIXEN $5.5
4 ARVO'S JOSIE $6
5 CONNEMARA SUZY $6.7
3 GULA BALE $7.6
2 ARVO'S HANNAH $7.8
7 ELDIS BALE $10
8 TANDAR LASS $12
6 ICEBOX $16

And nothing to see here.

[Raven]

Any markets tonight Mo?

I might do a few markets tonight to test drive my speed ratings

[moeee]

Up and running already Raven?
Well Done.
Hopefully you just betting matchsticks.

If you have nothing of Value , you can post your idea here , and I will let you know whether you are on the right track.
I would never post what I have , even though it is not very succesful , and other members prolly couldn't get the same results as me.

Or if you really want some individual help raven , I have Messenger and would love to share whatever knowledge as guidance I have with you to get you up to par much quicker.

Here's a few Traralgon Markets.
I'll post my Meadows stuff elsewhere later

RACE 6

1 MOSCARDO $4.7
5 AXELS $5.2
6 ARNIE'S STAR $6.3
4 SMASHVILLE $7.3
8 DR. DUFUS $8.4
7 BREEZIN' LILY $12
3 ARVO'S STEFAN $20
2 DI JAMAICA $25



RACE 7

7 MID LEVELS $4.2
3 ONE STONE TWINK $5.2
8 DAZEE AGOGO $5.4
5 FAIRY HORSE $6.3
2 SHE'S TOPS $11
4 FAST GALO $16
1 LOVEABLE LYN $20
6 STORMY AGOGO $40




RACE 8

8 MCCOSKER SPEED $4.7
6 WHELAN $4.9
3 DR. ROCHELLE $5.1
1 DR. BOOSHAY $7.6
7 DR. AYE JAY $10
4 DR. TYE $11
2 WHERE'S FREEMAN $16

[Raven]

Basic stuff atm, still fiddling with the macro's etc. Not even considering boxes or early pace etc. Just want to see a positive correlation with regards the rated order.

[moeee]

Well the common denominator to every animals run is its elapsed Time.
But you need a standard to compare it against.

You could use the Race Record for the Track and Distance.
A better method is to use the Average.
Another could be to average the past 200 races.
Another could be to average the top 10 times.
Another could average only races of todays Grade.

I have my own suck it and see standards which i choose not to divulge , they prolly wrong anyway.

Are you using a Time standard raven , and if you are , what are you using?

[Raven]

Track records at the moment, In horse racing i have a set of 11 yr dry track pars. But that's a future project. Pricing model is also to be investigated.

Some discrepencies at Traralgon, interestingly no short priced faves, one of my long held fears of the dogs.

[moeee]

When I have finished with a race , I end up with each animal having a Final rating.
I then use a formula that converts these ratings into a 100% Market , and it is based on the gap differences between the Ratings.

I've noticed in your Markets raven , that there is no correlation between the ratings derived in a race and the odds of that particular runner.

Like in Race 6

2 DI JAMAICA 90.8 90.8 $14.00
3 ARVO'S STEFAN 88.3 93.1 $14.00

Different ratings , different Averages but the same Price.
obviously your Market Price has a further factor built into the Formula , be it Box Position , Prizemoney won , or perhaps Strike rate.

Is that right , or did you make an error?

What I might try help you with , is if i see some glaring errors , I'll point them out to you , and perhaps there may be a factor which you may have to introduce to your calculations.

I'm not trying to put you down , but I don't know how much of a beginner you are , but in Greyhound races , Box 1 is immensely superior to Box 2 compared to Barrier 1 and Barrier 2 in horses.
And the Outside Box is often the next best Box after Box 1 , compared to the outside barrier in horse racing which is usually the worst.
Were you well aware of that raven , so I know where you at at in your knowledge?

And raven - what is the second Column labelled Rave in your Program?
I thought it stood for Race Average or maybe Rating Average , but a buddy of mine suggested it may be short for Raven?

[moeee]

Something you may know but very useful if you didn't.

In the Comments of the form Guide.

M8777,C11

It reads about the Run.
It began Medium (M) Quick (Q) Slow (S)
was 8th early then 7th 7th 7th and was Checked during the run and lost about 11 lengths (C11)

When I see it has lost 11 lengths , I often delete that run because it drags the average down.
But this may show up in your deleted outliers anyway.

[woof43]

RACE 6

1 MOSCARDO $4.7
5 AXELS $5.2
6 ARNIE'S STAR $6.3
4 SMASHVILLE $7.3
8 DR. DUFUS $8.4
7 BREEZIN' LILY $12
3 ARVO'S STEFAN $20
2 DI JAMAICA $25



The fav in this race makes this an interesting race,
55% of the time it has missed the start in it's 29 outings. The two times sent over the longer journeys and it has tired badly wouldn't have broken 31.30 at the Meadows, but it does want the rails badly, but is that enough to get it home in this race?

my split market sees the following;
Box 1st Split Rating Rank
1 $4.52 3
2 $4.45 2
3 $15.15 5
4 $384.62 7
5 $6.29 4
6 $3.23 1
7 $67.57 6

[moeee]

55% of the time it has missed the start in it's 29 outings.

The two times sent over the longer journeys and it has tired badly wouldn't have broken 31.30 at the Meadows

To the 1st quote , does it matter whether it consistently misses the start yet still runs good times?

The 2nd quote is a beauty and is a reason my success rate is terrible.
I rate 400 metre dogs at their 400 meter ability when running over 500 metres.
I have yet to develop this ability , and it is possibly pigheadedness that is stopping me.

Hey Woof43.
I remember one time you posted a bit of a tutorial about taping Races and then superimposing a time clock over the top of the tape.

I think Dartfish provide a time clock on their Races , but I think when I replay the race Offline , the Time Clock is gone.

What I have pondered over is somehow to convert the Time ran into a graph of the acceleration of an animal , but without knowing the distance covered for each segment of the race , it is pointless.

The biggest problem I have is the amount of time spent watching replays as to how much it boosts my Profits is very very unworthwhile.

[Raven]

When I have finished with a race , I end up with each animal having a Final rating.
I then use a formula that converts these ratings into a 100% Market , and it is based on the gap differences between the Ratings.

I've noticed in your Markets raven , that there is no correlation between the ratings derived in a race and the odds of that particular runner.

Like in Race 6

2 DI JAMAICA 90.8 90.8 $14.00
3 ARVO'S STEFAN 88.3 93.1 $14.00

Different ratings , different Averages but the same Price.
obviously your Market Price has a further factor built into the Formula , be it Box Position , Prizemoney won , or perhaps Strike rate.

Price is based on Rating + Rave combined. Sorry for the confusion

Rating = overall speed assessment
Rave = Recent Average

Beginners luck in race 4. Winner an overlay on BF. Winner actully close 2nd pick on overall rating, rated poor on recent average. Only 1 race i know. Just got home from the pub

[woof43]

To the 1st quote , does it matter whether it consistently misses the start yet still runs good times?

The 2nd quote is a beauty and is a reason my success rate is terrible.
I rate 400 metre dogs at their 400 meter ability when running over 500 metres.
I have yet to develop this ability , and it is possibly pigheadedness that is stopping me.

Hey Woof43.
I remember one time you posted a bit of a tutorial about taping Races and then superimposing a time clock over the top of the tape.

I think Dartfish provide a time clock on their Races , but I think when I replay the race Offline , the Time Clock is gone.

What I have pondered over is somehow to convert the Time ran into a graph of the acceleration of an animal , but without knowing the distance covered for each segment of the race , it is pointless.

The biggest problem I have is the amount of time spent watching replays as to how much it boosts my Profits is very very unworthwhile.

Yep, your correct on that Time Clock, I posted (maybe 6 years ago) knowing that people wouldn't bother with the effort, it's easier to backfit.

You really don't need it Moee, all Vic races are pretty well catered for exact times and approx distances.
The original post was for horse racing, but in the guise of dog racing.
What I can provide is acceleration for a greyhound and some simple calcs to work out distances covered in set times

[moeee]

Race 1

1 DYNA FILBERT $2.8
4 WHY NOT HAPPY $6.9
3 RYKER BALE $7.1
8 SET TO TALK $7.9
6 WHERE'S CLEO $14.3
7 IMANI BALE $16.3
5 LAURIE VALENTINE $17.0
2 MAJOR KING $23.6



Race 2

4 CREDIT CRUNCHER $3.7
7 JET BLAST $4.3
8 MUNGO MAN $4.7
3 LAROCCO $7.7
6 EURIG BALE $12.4
1 DUDE RANCHER $23.7
2 AUSSIE REBEL $46.2
5 UP AND GONE $68.9



Race 3

7 LEKTRA EXPRESS $1.9
4 HAROLD BALE $6.8
5 SILVER BRODIE $9.8
6 INSTANT BALE $11.9
2 CAPTAINS MOUNT $12.4
1 CODE NINE $40.0
3 OH CARITAS $39.1
10 BOSSY BETTY $71.5



Race 4

8 RONALD WEASLEY $4.9
3 DREAM RATTLER $6.5
5 UCME TYPHOON $6.7
6 STARFIRE MAGIC $8.1
7 MOTIVATOR MISSY $10.0
1 NITRISS NEVEELK $10.6
2 SISCO HERO $11.3
4 FERMIN BALE $11.3



Race 5

5 SHIMAGUNI $1.2
6 MEPUNGA MELACHI $13.8
3 ALETA ALLEN $32.5
1 WHY NOT JAMES $41.4
2 PARISETTE $46.8
4 CACIA BALE $60.6
7 BOGGY SPITFIRE $169.7
8 CAROL BALE $185.6

Top selection here simply is way too short - OR IS IT????

[woof43]

RACE 7

7 MID LEVELS $4.2
3 ONE STONE TWINK $5.2
8 DAZEE AGOGO $5.4
5 FAIRY HORSE $6.3
2 SHE'S TOPS $11
4 FAST GALO $16
1 LOVEABLE LYN $20
6 STORMY AGOGO $40




I do have the #7 & #8 as with the #1 (it's last two starts have been well above what its produced before),the early leaders here Moee and seeing how right I was in that last race, lets hope it repeats.
The #7 will push to the rails is a problem in such a short race

[Raven]

He has run 2nd to Miata a few times, must rate well

[moeee]

seeing how right I was in that last race, lets hope it repeats.


I get it.
You are being sarcastic - Right? :)

[moeee]

He has run 2nd to Miata a few times, must rate well

I figure you talking about Shimaguni.
This is another thing that you will learn if you continue your experiment into Greyhound Punting.

The situation with Shimaguni today , is like Makybe Diva running in a Cox Plate.
No Problems with Class or ability , but the distance is possibly too short.

[woof43]

Moee,
If you understand this you have done well, then you can start calculating all the sectional distances.

COMPUTATION OF SECTIONAL DISTANCES FOR GREYHOUNDS
MEADOWS 525 TR =29.45 SECT RECORD =4.93

1. BASIC COMPUTATIONS:
ADJ TM 29.45 MINUS 1.11 = 28.34
MAX SPD 525 DIV BY 28.34 = 18.53
MAX TIM 29.45 MINUS 3.9 = 25.55
MAX DST 18.53 TIMES 25.55 = 473.32
ACC DIST 525 MINUS 473.32= 51.68

PROOF
MAX SPEED = 18.53

0.9 TIMES 18.53 = 16.67
1.89 TIMES 18.53 = 35.01
(SECT TIME MINUS 4.93-3.90)=1.03 TIMES 18.53 = 19.08
SUM 16.67+35.01+19.08= SECTIONAL DISTANCE 70.77 METRES

ACCELERATION CONSTANT
AVG SPEED: % MAX SPEED DISTANCE: AS % OF MAX SPEED
.9 T .99 T .9 T .99 T
0.450 0.995 0.90 1.89

[moeee]

Tomorrow morning I'll try when I am refreshed Woof43

RACE 6

8 GRANDUER $2.7
2 LEKTRA JOHNSON $3.7
1 ELLEN BALE $8.2
4 BARRIQUE $14.8
5 LASTING EFFECT $17.4
3 SUNSET JET $22.4
7 BLACK JACA $23.9
9 SISCO STYLE $47.1