Bounce theory

[strawb]

Just wondering if anyone has any ideas on this topic?I thought it may have something to do with the disappointing (for me)runs of True Glo,Sportsman in the DBMN Classic after running a race record 2 weeks beforehand.

[Paddy]

I remember a friend of mine telling me a few years back that he only expected horses to truly 'bounce' under two circumstances:

1. A horse that runs very hard in a competitive race to the line after a layoff of more than 90 days and then returns in less than three weeks. It's reasonable to assume horses like this will return muscle sore and require quite a bit of time to regain their form, if they ever do.

2. A first-time-starter who shows lots of speed, but ends up weakening to finish 2nd/3rd. Racing for the first time can be a frightening and unnerving experience for young horses and many of them are simply running scared in their debuts. The race starts, the jocks start screaming and the horse just runs as fast as it can for as far as it can. Horses like this invariably are overbet in their second trip to the post based on potential improvement. In reality, however, they are a bit wiser and may not try as hard. Or, they may have discovered that they hate the racing experience entirely, sulk and not run a lick.

[topsy99]

using hindsight as a wonderful tool to greater wisdom.
i would put it simply eagle farm to doomben.
particularly sportsman
sportsman drew relatively wide in both races.
eagle farm suits this rather than doomben
tru glow drew wide at eagle farm and inside at doomben.perhaps doesnt like inside and dropped back in running.

[osulldj]

Horses are athletes and like any athlete it's difficult to back up and keep producing peak performances every run. After a particular gut busting effort it is totally conceivable that a horse could be a little flat next time out. A lot of this depends on the trainer of course - how in tune he/she is with their horse and its condition.

However the problem with the so called 'bounce' theory is that it's impossible to predict before the race or even pick after the race. If a horse has reached a peak this run, do you assume it is going to bounce next run? That would be ridiculous.

What about after the race where a horse hasn't performed up to it last start peak?
There are literally dozens of reasons why a horse didn't perform in a race and the bounce theory would be one of the last you should consider.

On a related issue....Mark Read has held a theory for a number of years about our elite horses and how many of them are never the same and often break down sometime after an absolute peak run. His belief is that these horses naturally run faster and therefore place much more stress on their cardiovascular system, joints, mucles than ordinary horses. The effort and stress of such peak runs from elite horses can do irrepairable damage according to Read.

Maybe it's just coincidence but history is littered with plenty of elite horses who have broken down while just reaching their prime....leaving us to wonder what might have been.

Off the top of my head I can think of Might and Power, Saintly and going back to Dulcify. Mouawad was another of more recent times. I'm sure others can think of plenty more.

Bounce? Sure the concept exists but in a practical sense it's next to impossible to reliably capture either before or after the race and is therefore not much use.

[Fryingpan]

For those interested in the concept of the bounce, the originator was Len Ragozin who wrote "The Odds Must Be Crazy: Beating the Races with the Man Who Revolutionized Handicapping." (1997).

If you were on the wrong end of a "bounce" type event, (if that is what it was), then I'm sure you need to think that no one in their right mind had "Bob's Boy" as one of their solid straight out win selection (instead of Tru Glo). Such a surprise ought to tell a punter that luck or the surprise result replaces where form analysis might have prevailed. You have to build in those fuzzy moments in racing. In which case the effect of the punt shouldn't way you down with remorse. You probably made the right decision (in the long run). Luck or noise, or variation or bias or circumstances can play many hands.

As for the "bounce" maybe it's important to consider being on the collecting side of the equation and find something that had a bad (as in luckless) run and whcih has the potential and class to win next time (or two)... worth discussing.

[strawb]

Thank-you to everyone who replied to this post. I don't have data base on my computer to check this out. I do have heap of old sportsman's and I'll try to find a method of predicting this phenomina,may-be it will save me a bit of money.

cheers all,
strawb

[topsy99]

as a matter of interest.
bobs boy had won first up and put in a bad run second up.

my view is that horses like bob's boy winning at long odds can drive you crazy trying to pick them.
on my theory that last start group or listed winners are good bets worked on saturday for bob's boy was a good go on saturday.
another old theory that shows uup a lot is last start winners into group ones.