Formula 1

[Playlife]

Hey guys, new to this forum but not new to betting or staking plans.

Wondering if there is any interest in Formula 1 betting here?
Pre-season testing you can find some excellent odds given the slow response from Australian agencies in particular. I find they are slower to respond to breaking news than those based in Europe/UK (as you may well expect).

For instance, was able to get Hamilton @$8 and Rosberg @$18 in February to win the World Driver's Championship. WDC favourite Vettel was very short at ~$2 given he'd won 4 on the trot.

Three races to go, mathematically there are only 3 drivers who can win the WDC. Realistically, only one of the two Mercedes drivers will win, Hamilton and Rosberg. Hamilton leads by 17 points (25 points for a win).

From combinations of agencies they are priced at:
1.35 Hamilton
4.00 Rosberg

Giving a 1% arb.

With Rosberg on pole in Austin, and Hamilton suffering from brake issues which may carry into the race, Nico has a good chance of closing the gap.

If Nico wins, expect the 4.00 to come in significantly.
If Hamilton wins I wouldn't expect too much movement.


Love to hear your thoughts.

[Playlife]

Sorry double topic when I refreshed, could the mod please delete one of them.

[Playlife]

After Lewis ' win in Austin, Ricciardo is now out of the WDC.
It's now a two horse battle between the Merc boys, Lewis and Nico, with Lewis leading by 24 points (1 race win is worth 25 points).

Two races to go, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. The latter is a double points race so the Championship is far but over with still 75 points to play for.

Odds for both Merc boys are as follows:
1.20 Hamilton
5.70 Rosberg

[Playlife]

Depending where you 'shop', you can get:
1.20 Hamilton
6.20 Rosberg

The Brazilian Grand Prix is this weekend, with the current forecast for a storm across all three days of the event.

Brazil is usually a chaotic race at the best of times, so in the wet with the current crop of high-torque F1 cars, we should see quite a few upset results.

There may be some excellent value bets for qualifying and the race.

I will make a final prediction after watching practice but except to see the unlikely Toro Rosso pair of Kvyat and Vergne punch about their weight in qualifying.

[Lord Greystoke]

After Lewis ' win in Austin, Ricciardo is now out of the WDC.
It's now a two horse battle between the Merc boys, Lewis and Nico, with Lewis leading by 24 points (1 race win is worth 25 points).

Two races to go, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. The latter is a double points race so the Championship is far but over with still 75 points to play for.

Odds for both Merc boys are as follows:
1.20 Hamilton
5.70 Rosberg

Hi Playlife,

GOOD to see another sport come to life here mate. Also one that i follow! I am a bit confused however. If the championship is still very much up for grabs if i have read you correct, why has Rosberg drifted out to 6.20 as per your earlier post today. It looks like its almost a 'done deal' with Hamilton a very short odds on fav??

Cheers LG

[Sportz]

Well, if Hamilton has no mechanical problems, then he will almost certainly win. But that's a big if. You never know what can happen. He has been favourite pretty much all the way through. Even earlier in the year when Rosberg was leading, Hamilton was favourite.

[Lord Greystoke]

Two things I am aware of here. Those two hate each other and when this happens the likelihood of one driver shunting another out of a race INCREASE. More so in the run home to the championship and irrespective of whether they are on the same 'team' or not, if there is such a concept in F1 these days?

If the odds on Rossberg continue to drift, might be a bit of value there I reckon. Nice thread Playlife and good spot Sportz!

Cheers LG

[Chrome Prince]

The real question here is will the turbo blow up?
Hamilton is an extremely aggressive driver, they all are I guess, but even when he was driving the V8's he was aggressive.
Turbos place so much strain on these smaller engines and cooling is a big factor.
Rain is another factor, could lead to a couple of safety cars.
I'd take the value on Nico.
I actually think that $1.20 is under the odds for Hamilton to win the WDC.
He'll probably win, but there's no value there.

As for love lost, Hamilton doesn't have a good relationship with Nico, but last year both Alonso and Webber, did not have a good relationship with Vettel.
I remember Alonso would not talk to Vettel at all.

The reason I think $1.20 is too short, is because there are too many variables.
Another driver could win either race and all Nico has to do is beat Hamilton in the placings.

There are some big changes coming next year team wise, should be very interesting. And this year has been a learning curve for the other teams.
I know Ferrari have been working a lot behind the scenes to change the whole setup for next year.

Rumours are flying around about Alonso starting his own team backed by a big gun. Alonso has nether confirmed nor denied this. We know what this means in the political arena ;)

Playlife, a big congratulations on securing those early odds, that was a gutsy move and looks like a huge overlay now!
$2.00 was way too short on Vettel considering the move from v8's to v6 turbos. Everything changes.

[Playlife]

Thanks Lord Greystoke. Wasn't sure if anyone was keen on F1 but figured I'd post anyway on the off chance there were a few lurking about!

As Sportz said, Hamilton has effectively been the favourite ever seen it was clear that the Mercedes was miles ahead of the pack. With the pre-season testing clearly exposing Red Bull's massive engine issues with their Renault powerplant, I was very surprised they remained not only short but favourites still!

As Chrome Prince rightly pointed out, 1.20 is too short simply because of the number of things that can happen. All it takes is Lewis to DNF and they're effectively back on terms if Rosberg can win that race (with the best car, there's no reason he couldn't).

Further, the last race of the season is double points.
Worst case scenario for Hamilton:
*Brazil, Lewis wins and Rosberg DNFs. Lewis leads WDC by 49 points.
*Abu Dhabi, Rosberg wins and Lewis DNFs. Rosberg wins the WDC by 1 point!

Rain, reliability, plus numerous unknown factors (such as non-WDC contenders taking more liberties knowing that the Mercs will give way so as not to jeopardise DNF-ing) mean that despite the 24 point lead, Rosberg still has a decent chance.

Al Lewis has to do is finish 2nd to Nico in both races. But knowing Lewis, he won't do that at all, he'll try and win both.

Part of the reason for the 1.20 also is because Lewis has won 5 races on the trot. Realistically speaking the chances of him continuing the run become increasingly smaller surely (I know they're independent events but you know what I mean!).

[Playlife]

Brazilian Grand Prix Forecast
Friday: Storm 31°C
Saturday: Storm 25°C
Sunday: Rain 21°C

The track is largely unforgiving, there is the strong possibility of hitting something hard if you go off so with wet conditions for the entire weekend, drivers will have to ensure they keep on the black stuff.

[Chrome Prince]

Realistically speaking the chances of him continuing the run become increasingly smaller surely (I know they're independent events but you know what I mean!).

I agree, what about the stress on engine and gearbox, he has had some braking issues and electrical issues.
I wouldn't take $1.20 as a value bet.
If they change the engine or gearbox and he has to start from the pits, Nico can win for sure.
Nico made one mistake in USA in that he didn't adjust the downforce on his front wing like Hamilton did. That made a big difference.
At the rate the turbos are spinning, turbo failure is a big possibility, let alone the other components.

[grizzle]

Brazilian Grand Prix Forecast
Friday: Storm 31°C
Saturday: Storm 25°C
Sunday: Rain 21°C

The track is largely unforgiving, there is the strong possibility of hitting something hard if you go off so with wet conditions for the entire weekend, drivers will have to ensure they keep on the black stuff.
shame about the weather, the famous old Interlagos circuit usually produces phenomenal racing

[grizzle]

Final Positions after Qualifying:

1 Nico Rosberg (Ger) Mercedes GP
2 Lewis Hamilton (Gbr) Mercedes GP
3 Felipe Massa (Bra) Williams
4 Valtteri Bottas (Fin) Williams
5 Jenson Button (Gbr) McLaren
6 Sebastian Vettel (Ger) Red Bull
7 Kevin Magnussen (Den) McLaren
8 Fernando Alonso (Spa) Ferrari
9 Daniel Ricciardo (Aus) Red Bull
10 Kimi Raikkonen (Fin) Ferrari
11 Esteban Gutierrez (Mex) Sauber-Ferrari
12 Nico Hulkenberg (Ger) Force India
13 Adrian Sutil (Ger) Sauber-Ferrari
14 Daniil Kvyat (Rus) Scuderia Toro Rosso
15 Romain Grosjean (Fra) Lotus F1 Team
16 Jean-Eric Vergne (Fra) Scuderia Toro Rosso
17 Sergio Perez (Mex) Force India
18 Pastor Maldonado (Ven) Lotus F1 Team

[Chrome Prince]

Very interesting to see the gap between Vettel and Ricciardo.

[Sands]

Final Positions after Qualifying:

1 Nico Rosberg (Ger) Mercedes GP
2 Lewis Hamilton (Gbr) Mercedes GP
3 Felipe Massa (Bra) Williams
4 Valtteri Bottas (Fin) Williams
5 Jenson Button (Gbr) McLaren
6 Sebastian Vettel (Ger) Red Bull
7 Kevin Magnussen (Den) McLaren
8 Fernando Alonso (Spa) Ferrari
9 Daniel Ricciardo (Aus) Red Bull
10 Kimi Raikkonen (Fin) Ferrari
11 Esteban Gutierrez (Mex) Sauber-Ferrari
12 Nico Hulkenberg (Ger) Force India
13 Adrian Sutil (Ger) Sauber-Ferrari
14 Daniil Kvyat (Rus) Scuderia Toro Rosso
15 Romain Grosjean (Fra) Lotus F1 Team
16 Jean-Eric Vergne (Fra) Scuderia Toro Rosso
17 Sergio Perez (Mex) Force India
18 Pastor Maldonado (Ven) Lotus F1 Team
Daniel very disappointed with 9th, was hoping to be in the top 5

[Lord Greystoke]

Needless to say, he will probably race with his cajones in his hands as usual and sling his red bull up as close to the lead as possible. Wouldn't put a podium past him in this one, Sands.

Cheers LG

[Sands]

Needless to say, he will probably race with his cajones in his hands as usual and sling his red bull up as close to the lead as possible. Wouldn't put a podium past him in this one, Sands.

Cheers LG
Absolutely!

[Playlife]

Looks like the rain came in the evening each day instead of during the day!

Current update shows a reduced 30% chance of rain for the race.

Nico topped every practice session and took pole position _just_. Lewis probably could have grabbed it if not for 2 mistakes in the last two of three corners.

Ricciardo has been struggling all weekend compared to Vettel, the latter being quite quick around Interlagos.
Historically Interlagos is one of, if not the worst circuit for him. Will be interesting to see if he can hold onto Nico.

Massa was a potential for pole - I'd think he, or team-mate Bottas, are a chance at splitting the Mercedes pair.

[Sands]

Brazilian GP: Final standings

1.Rosberg (Mercedes)
2.Hamilton (Mercedes)
3.Massa (Williams)
4.Button (McLaren)
5.Vettel (Red Bull)
6.Alonso (Ferrari)
7.Raikkonen (Ferrari)
8.Hülkenberg (Force India)
9.Magnussen (McLaren)
10.Bottas (Williams)

[Sands]

Daniel Ricciardo retired with suspension failure
Ricciardo battled on with a front-left suspension failure but pulled the pin on the 40th lap

[Sands]

Rosberg's triumph reduces Hamilton's lead in the championship from 24 points to 17 with one race remaining, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 23

[Chrome Prince]

Ricciardo battled on with a front-left suspension failure but pulled the pin on the 40th lap

That's quite an apt statement Sands as I think the pin that holds the knuckle of the upper wishbone gave way.

[Chrome Prince]

Rosberg's triumph reduces Hamilton's lead in the championship from 24 points to 17 with one race remaining, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 23

Abu Dhabi is double points, so Hamilton only has to run no worse than second to win the WDC. He's got to be $1.10 now with the bookies, but anything can happen in F1 considering how far he pushed the car and spun off.
Tyre choices and pitstop strategy will be critical. So worried about the turbo strain at this late stage.

Anyone who watched the race, I thought it was very poor form from Ferrari not to let Alonso through just because he's leaving next year. He was clearly faster than Kimi. Considering they told Schumacher to let his rival through a few years ago.

[Chrome Prince]

In other news Jules Bianchi remains in stable but critical condition in Japan unable to be moved back to Europe :(

[Playlife]

It truly is a sad situation for Jules and his family/friends. I just can't see a good outcome :(


As for the Brazilian GP, I was surprised the Williams duo didn't have the same performance they showed in qualifying. Despite Massa's blunders he still managed to be best of the rest.

Lewis gave Nico a hard time but just couldn't get it done.

Despite Lewis leading by 17 points, we go into Abu Dhabi with almost the situation where each Merc driver needs to beat the other in the race. I'm sure Lewis doesn't want to qualify in P2 and risk the chance of a bonzai move from someone else taking liberties since they know he's vulnerable.

It's really shaping up to be a great finale!

[Playlife]

So that Grand Finale this evening!

Rosberg on pole, Lewis qualified in 2nd.


WDC permutations

Lewis wins the WDC if:
1. Lewis finishes in the top 2.
2. Lewis finishes at least 5th if Rosberg doesn't win.
3. Lewis finishes at least 6th if Rosberg is not in the top 2.

Rosberg wins the WDC if:
1. Rosberg wins and Lewis does not finish 2nd.
2. Rosberg finishes 2nd if Lewis is 6th or lower.
3. Rosberg finishes at least 5th if Lewis is outside the points.


If Rosberg is:
- 1st, Lewis needs 2nd
- 2nd, Lewis needs 5th
- 3rd, Lewis needs 6th
- 4th, Lewis needs 8th
- 5th, Lewis needs 9th
- 6th, Lewis is Champion

[Playlife]

Odds
~1.30 Hamilton
~4.00-4.30 Rosberg

[kiwiz]

Daniel Ricciardo retired with suspension failure
Ricciardo battled on with a front-left suspension failure but pulled the pin on the 40th lap
Hey Sands,,did you hear
Bad lucky continuing for Ricciardo
Race stewards have ruled that the Red Bull cars had illegal front wing flaps
Relegated to the back of the grid
Daniel had originally qualified on the third row

[grizzle]

Pos Driver Car Team Grid Fastest Lap Race Time Points

1 Lewis Hamilton 44 Mercedes 2 1:45.599 1:39:02.619 50
2 Felipe Massa 19 Williams 4 1:44.826 +00:02.500 36
3 Valtteri Bottas 77 Williams 3 1:45.727 +00:28.800 30
4 Daniel Ricciardo 3 Red Bull 20 1:44.496 +00:37.200 24
5 Jenson Button 22 McLaren 6 1:46.739 +01:00.300 20
6 Nico Hulkenberg 27 Force India 12 1:45.777 +01:02.100 16
7 Sergio Perez 11 Force India 11 1:45.808 +01:11.000 12
8 Sebastian Vettel 1 Red Bull 19 1:45.552 +01:12.000 8
9 Fernando Alonso 14 Ferrari 8 1:47.424 +01:25.800 4
10 Kimi Raikkonen 7 Ferrari 7 1:47.736 +01:27.800 2
11 Kevin Magnussen 20 McLaren 9 1:46.824 +01:30.300 0
12 Jean-Eric Vergne 25 Toro Rosso 10 1:45.686 +01:31.900 0
13 Romain Grosjean 8 Lotus 18 1:47.897 lapped 0
14 Nico Rosberg 6 Mercedes 1 1:46.869 lapped 0
15 Esteban Gutierrez 21 Sauber 14 1:47.698 lapped 0
16 Adrian Sutil 99 Sauber 13 1:47.508 lapped 0
17 Will Stevens 46 Caterham 17 1:48.398 lapped 0
18 Kamui Kobayashi 10 Caterham 16 1:47.431 retired, 42 laps 0
19 Pastor Maldonado 13 Lotus 15 1:48.933 retired, 26 laps 0
20 Daniil Kvyat 26 Toro Rosso 5 1:48.748 retired, 14 laps 0

[grizzle]

1. Lewis Hamilton (GBR) 384 pts - world champion
2. Nico Rosberg (GER) 317
3. Daniel Ricciardo (AUS) 238
4. Valtteri Bottas (FIN) 186
5. Sebastian Vettel (GER) 167
6. Fernando Alonso (ESP) 161
7. Felipe Massa (BRA) 134
8. Jenson Button (GBR) 126
9. Nico Hulkenberg (GER) 96
10. Sergio Perez (MEX) 59
11. Kevin Magnussen (DEN) 55
12. Kimi Raikkonen (FIN) 55
13. Jean-Eric Vergne (FRA) 22
14. Romain Grosjean (FRA) 8
15. Daniil Kvyat (RUS) 8
16. Pastor Maldonado (VEN) 2
17. Jules Bianchi (FRA) 2

[grizzle]

1. Mercedes 701 pts
2. Red Bull 405
3. Williams 320
4. Ferrari 216
5. McLaren 181
6. Force India 155
7. Toro Rosso 30
8. Lotus 10
9. Marussia 2

[Playlife]

Button saved McLaren's bacon, Force India almost stole that WCC position from them.

Congrats to Lewis.

Be interesting to see how testing goes in February, but I'd be surprised if anyone can catch the Mercs still.

[Playlife]

F1 official testing will be starting in a few weeks time.

The first few days of testing can be misleading, but by the time of the second test then there could be some obvious pointers to the form expected for 2015.

I find the markets are slow to react to some obvious (well, obvious to the knowledgeable F1 fan!) trends and patterns.

Perfect example was getting BrawnGP @120 to win the Constructors Championship and Button to win the Drivers Championship @ 80 in 2009. Unfortunately I was too cautious and placed low stakes...

[Sands]

Formula One Drivers Championship 2015


Lewis Hamilton $1.77
Nico Rosberg $4.61
Sebastian Vettel $17.60
Daniel Ricciardo $19
Fernando Alonso $20
Jenson Button $34
Valtteri Bottas $41
Kimi Raikkonen $51
Felipe Massa $67
Daniil Kvyat $81
Others $300+

[Sands]

Formula One Constructors Championship 2015


Mercedes $1.25
Ferrari $17
McLaren $18.10
Red Bull $20
Williams $38
Others $200+

[Sands]

The 2015 calendar:

15/03 Australia
29/03 Malaysia
05/04 Bahrain
19/04 China
10/05 Spain
24/05 Monaco
07/06 Canada
21/06 Austria
05/07 Britain
19/07 Germany *
26/07 Hungary
23/08 Belgium
06/09 Italy
20/09 Singapore
27/09 Japan
11/10 Russia
25/10 USA
01/11 Mexico
15/11 Brazil
29/11 Abu Dhabi

* contract with either Hockenheim or Nurburgring for the race on July 19, yet to be resolved

[Sands]

Australian Grand Prix Winner

Lewis Hamilton $2.25
Nico Rosberg $3.25
Sebastian Vettel $8
Daniel Ricciardo $12
Kimi Raikkonen $13
Fernando Alonso $26
Valtteri Bottas $26
Felipe Massa $34
Jenson Button $41
Daniil Kvyat $67
Others $150+

[Sands]

Australian Grand Prix Winner

Lewis Hamilton $2.25
Nico Rosberg $3.25
Sebastian Vettel $8
Daniel Ricciardo $12
Kimi Raikkonen $13
Fernando Alonso $26
Valtteri Bottas $26
Felipe Massa $34
Jenson Button $41
Daniil Kvyat $67
Others $150+
Australian Grand Prix Winner

Lewis Hamilton $2.10
Nico Rosberg $3.25
Sebastian Vettel $15.10
Valtteri Bottas $18
Daniel Ricciardo $19
Kimi Raikkonen $26
Felipe Massa $31
Jenson Button $101
Daniil Kvyat $101
Others $250+

Fernando Alonso Non-starter (on medical advice)

Valtteri Bottas $26 into $18

[Sands]

Australian Grand Prix Winner

Lewis Hamilton $1.40
Nico Rosberg $4.10

Sebastian Vettel $29
Felipe Massa $31
Valtteri Bottas $41
Kimi Raikkonen $41
Daniel Ricciardo $81

Others $500+

[grizzle]

1. Lewis Hamilton GBR Mercedes-Mercedes 58 laps 1hr 31m 54.067s
2. Nico Rosberg GER Mercedes-Mercedes +1.3s
3. Sebastian Vettel GER Ferrari-Ferrari +34.5s
4. Felipe Massa BRZ Williams-Mercedes +38.1s
5. Felipe Nasr BRZ Sauber-Ferrari +1m 35.1s
6. Daniel Ricciardo AUS Red Bull-Renault +1 lap
7. Nico Hulkenberg GER Force India-Mercedes +1 lap
8. Marcus Ericsson SWE Sauber-Ferrari +1 lap
9. Carlos Sainz Jr ESP Toro Rosso-Renault +1 lap
10. Sergio Perez MEX Force India-Mercedes +1 lap
11. Jenson Button GBR McLaren-Honda +2 laps

Fastest Laps
Rank Driver Car Fastest lap Gap On lap

1 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’30.945 50
2 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1’31.092 0.147 47
3 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1’31.426 0.481 36
4 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 1’31.457 0.512 52
5 Marcus Ericsson Sauber-Ferrari 1’31.560 0.615 51
6 Felipe Massa Williams-Mercedes 1’31.719 0.774 50
7 Sergio Perez Force India-Mercedes 1’31.959 1.014 46
8 Nico Hulkenberg Force India-Mercedes 1’31.970 1.025 48
9 Felipe Nasr Sauber-Ferrari 1’32.612 1.667 46
10 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull-Renault 1’32.797 1.852 46
11 Carlos Sainz Jnr Toro Rosso-Renault 1’32.872 1.927 49
12 Jenson Button McLaren-Honda 1’33.338 2.393 56
13 Max Verstappen Toro Rosso-Renault 1’34.295 3.350 30

Not Classified
Rtd Kimi Raikkonen FIN Ferrari-Ferrari 40 laps completed
Rtd Max Verstappen NED Toro Rosso-Renault 32 laps completed
Rtd Romain Grosjean FRA Lotus-Mercedes 0 laps completed
Rtd Pastor Maldonado VEN Lotus-Mercedes 0 laps completed

Did Not Start
Daniil Kvyat RUS Red Bull-Renault gearbox
Kevin Magnussen DEN McLaren-Honda engine
Valtteri Bottas FIN Williams-Mercedes back injury
Will Stevens GBR Manor-Ferrari did not qualify
Roberto Merhi ESP Manor-Ferrari did not qualify

[Playlife]

I'm not sure why Alonso and Button were so short before the AGP weekend given the well documented issues McLaren have had.

[grizzle]

Pos. No. Country Driver Constructor Laps Time/Retired Grid

1 5 Germany Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 56 1:41:05.793 2
2 44 United Kingdom Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 56 +8.569 1
3 6 Germany Nico Rosberg Mercedes 56 +12.310 3
4 7 Finland Kimi Räikkönen Ferrari 56 +53.822 11
5 77 Finland Valtteri Bottas Williams-Mercedes 56 +1:10.409 8
6 19 Brazil Felipe Massa Williams-Mercedes 56 +1:13.586 7
7 33 Netherlands Max Verstappen Toro Rosso-Renault 56 +1:37.762 6
8 55 Spain Carlos Sainz Jr. Toro Rosso-Renault 55 +1 Lap 15
9 26 Russia Daniil Kvyat Red Bull-Renault 55 +1 Lap 5
10 3 Australia Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull-Renault 55 +1 Lap 4
11 8 France Romain Grosjean Lotus-Mercedes 55 +1 Lap 10
12 12 Brazil Felipe Nasr Sauber-Ferrari 55 +1 Lap 16
13 11 Mexico Sergio Pérez Force India-Mercedes 55 +1 Lap 14
14 27 Germany Nico Hülkenberg Force India-Mercedes 55 +1 Lap 13
15 98 Spain Roberto Merhi Marussia-Ferrari 53 +3 Laps 19
Ret 13 Venezuela Pastor Maldonado Lotus-Mercedes 46 Brakes 12
Ret 22 United Kingdom Jenson Button McLaren-Honda 40 Turbo 17
Ret 14 Spain Fernando Alonso McLaren-Honda 20 Power Unit 18
Ret 9 Sweden Marcus Ericsson Sauber-Ferrari 2 Spun off 9
DNS 28 United Kingdom Will Stevens Marussia-Ferrari 0 Fuel system 20

[Playlife]

Been a while!

Rosberg has a 33 points lead with 4 races to go. With only 100 points on offer and Nico in good form he will be hard to beat.

Rosberg $1.20
Hamilton $4.00

[grizzle]

Rosberg now has lead of 26 points with 3 races to go

Rosberg $1.25
Hamilton $4.33

Rosberg to win only needs to finish second twice and third once
Hamilton needs to win all the three remaining races, Rosberg to finish one fourth or lower, or two of them in third

2016 US Grand Prix result
1 L Hamilton Mercedes 25pts
2 N Rosberg Mercedes 18 pts
3 D Ricciardo Red Bull Racing 15pts
4 S Vettel Ferrari 12pts
5 F Alonso McLaren Honda 10pts

[grizzle]

Rosberg now has lead of 19 points with 2 races to go

Rosberg $1.25
Hamilton $4.51

2016 Mexican Grand Prix result
1 L Hamilton Mercedes 25pts
2 N Rosberg Mercedes 18 pts
3 D Ricciardo Red Bull 15pts
4 M. Verstappen Toro Rosso 12pts
5 S. Vettel Ferrari 10pts

[grizzle]

Rosberg now has lead of 12 points with 1 race to go

Rosberg $1.25
Hamilton $4.85

2016 Brazil Grand Prix result
1 L Hamilton Mercedes 25pts
2 N Rosberg Mercedes 18 pts
3 M. Verstappen Red Bull 15pts
4 S Perez Force India 12pts
5 S. Vettel Ferrari 10pts

[grizzle]

Rosberg now has lead of 12 points with 1 race to go

Rosberg $1.25
Hamilton $4.85

2016 Brazil Grand Prix result
1 L Hamilton Mercedes 25pts
2 N Rosberg Mercedes 18 pts
3 M. Verstappen Red Bull 15pts
4 S Perez Force India 12pts
5 S. Vettel Ferrari 10pts
2016 Abu Dhabi result
1 L Hamilton Mercedes 25pts
2 N Rosberg Mercedes 18 pts
3 S. Vettel Ferrari 15pts
4 M. Verstappen Red Bull 12pts
5 D Ricciardo Red Bull 10pts

[kiwiz]

World champion Nico Rosberg has announced he has retired from Formula 1 with immediate effect.

The 31-year-old German won his first world title on Sunday, beating Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton by finishing second in the final race in Abu Dhabi.

"I have climbed my mountain, I am on the peak, so this feels right," Rosberg said.

Rosberg won nine of this season's 21 grands prix, beating three-time champion Hamilton by five points.

"For 25 years in racing, it has been my dream, my 'one thing', to become Formula 1 world champion," he added.

"Through the hard work, the pain, the sacrifices, this has been my target. And now I've made it."

The son of Finnish 1982 world champion Keke, Rosberg made his F1 debut for Williams at the Bahrain Grand Prix in 2006, finishing seventh.

And when asked if there was any chance of a return, Rosberg added: "No definitely not. End of story. Done."

By Andrew Benson
Chief F1 writer

[Playlife]

Shock news indeed with Nico's retirement.

Given the sweeping regulation changes for the 2017 season, I expect to see some good value next year.

I am tempted to place a few bets PRIOR to pre-season testing, and then making an assessment post pre-season testing for the season proper.

I expect Red Bull lead by Adrian Newey to have a fair crack at the WDC next year which is expected to be a more aero formula.

[grizzle]

World champion Nico Rosberg has announced he has retired from Formula 1 with immediate effect.

The 31-year-old German won his first world title on Sunday, beating Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton by finishing second in the final race in Abu Dhabi.

"I have climbed my mountain, I am on the peak, so this feels right," Rosberg said.

Rosberg won nine of this season's 21 grands prix, beating three-time champion Hamilton by five points.

"For 25 years in racing, it has been my dream, my 'one thing', to become Formula 1 world champion," he added.

"Through the hard work, the pain, the sacrifices, this has been my target. And now I've made it."

The son of Finnish 1982 world champion Keke, Rosberg made his F1 debut for Williams at the Bahrain Grand Prix in 2006, finishing seventh.

And when asked if there was any chance of a return, Rosberg added: "No definitely not. End of story. Done."

By Andrew Benson
Chief F1 writer
interview following Nico's retirement announcement
some interesting stuff

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTjovArrtqI

[Chrome Prince]

That was very surprising news to me, but I looked at it this way - he achieved his goal and also lived up to his father's reputation (huge pressure), toured the world and then there's testing etc. He's a young man and wants to probably settle down with his wife. It's tough to be a family man and be away so much and still compete at the highest level. Plus they move the goal posts every year, it's getting ridiculous.

[Playlife]

That was very surprising news to me, but I looked at it this way - he achieved his goal and also lived up to his father's reputation (huge pressure), toured the world and then there's testing etc. He's a young man and wants to probably settle down with his wife. It's tough to be a family man and be away so much and still compete at the highest level. Plus they move the goal posts every year, it's getting ridiculous.


I think it takes lots of balls to do what he did - walk away from the best seat in F1.

But as you said, he has achieved his goal and that is all he wanted (and needed) to do to satisfy himself. From his account, it really took a toll on him and he wants to spend more time with his family. Reality check for all, more to life than driving around in circles as Niki Lauda once said.

It's not often you get personalities like Nico in F1, he has definitely left a really positive legacy.

[kiwiz]

Bookies rate Valtteri Bottas (8/11) or Pascal Wehrlein (11/10) as the likely replacement for Nico

[grizzle]

Bookies rate Valtteri Bottas (8/11) or Pascal Wehrlein (11/10) as the likely replacement for Nico
latest statement, an announcement on Rosberg’s replacement not until 3 Jan at the earliest

[Playlife]

Bottas is a shoe in for the Merc seat.

According to Sky Italia, Massa has signed a GBP 5mi contract with Williams for 2017, coming out of a very short retirement. It has yet to be announced.

I can't find any sites offering bets on the Merc seat.

[grizzle]

I can't find any sites offering bets on the Merc seat.
currently, betfair
Valtteri Bottas 2/15
Nico Hulkenberg 20/21
Esteban Ocon 38/5
Pascal Wehrlein 9
Paul di Resta 66/5
Jenson Button 69/5
Others 20/1 & over

[Playlife]

currently, betfair
Valtteri Bottas 2/15
Nico Hulkenberg 20/21
Esteban Ocon 38/5
Pascal Wehrlein 9
Paul di Resta 66/5
Jenson Button 69/5
Others 20/1 & over


Cheers grizzle, I had not seen that.

[grizzle]

next season f1 early market

Lewis Hamilton 5/4
Max Verstappen 4/1
Daniel Ricciardo 4/1
Valtteri Bottas 5/1
Sebastian Vettel 16/1
others 33/1 & over

[kiwiz]

Might be a case of "wait & see" before placing any worthwhile bets

For 2017,,cars will be wider,,heavier & run on fatter tyres
Wings will also be wider,,with the rear wing lower than is currently the case

[grizzle]

as expected the new Mercedes F1 driver is Valtteri Bottas

[Playlife]

as expected the new Mercedes F1 driver is Valtteri Bottas

Yep, both Bottas and Massa were announced today for a nice collect at $1.13 for the former.

Current WCC odds are:
$1.67 Mercedes
$2.50 Red Bull
$10.00 Ferrari

I wouldn't bother with any other team just yet below the top 3. I think Red Bull are still good value, given Merc has lost Rosberg and Paddy Lowe.

Ferrari are making a HUGE push after their disastrous 2016. If they don't deliver at least a race win, heads will roll in Maranello.

Cars are being launched from 21st February for the first test a week later.

[kiwiz]

Australian Grand Prix
current market

Lewis Hamilton $1.90
Max Verstappen $4.50
Valtteri Bottas $4.50
Daniel Ricciardo $5
Sebastian Vettel $15
Others $26 or better

[Chrome Prince]

Lewis Hamilton, too short for me.
Australia has always thrown up surprises being Round 1 and last year was only because of the crash on lap 18 which allowed Nico to win and Lewis to run second.
This year apparently there has been some major specification change yet again.
So $1.90 is definitely unders for me.

[Chrome Prince]

Might be a case of "wait & see" before placing any worthwhile bets

For 2017,,cars will be wider,,heavier & run on fatter tyres
Wings will also be wider,,with the rear wing lower than is currently the case

Not sure, but aren't there some more engine mods as well?

[El Gordo]

For 2017,,cars will be wider,,heavier & run on fatter tyres
Wings will also be wider,,with the rear wing lower than is currently the case
They're expecting lap times to be cut by around 3 seconds - increased aero & mechanical grip, combined with revised tyres to suit slightly heavier cars. Faster corner speeds rather than top speeds.

[El Gordo]

Australian Grand Prix
current market

Lewis Hamilton $1.90
Max Verstappen $4.50
Valtteri Bottas $4.50
Daniel Ricciardo $5
Sebastian Vettel $15
Others $26 or better
Market has changed considerably

Lewis Hamilton $2.48
Sebastian Vettel $4.60
Valtteri Bottas $7.60
Kimi Raikkonen $9.80
Daniel Ricciardo $12
Max Verstappen $13.50

Others $100 or better

[Playlife]

Unfortunately I was not able to get onto the forum in the last month or so.

Ferrari showed blistering pace in testing and to no surprised were a match for Mercedes in Melbourne.

Prior to the first race, I was able to get Vettel @ $22 for the WDC and Kimi @ $55. After quali, Vettel was paying $4.00 for the race win. Unfortunately Red Bull and a punt on McLaren pushed out the wrong way.

I think Bottas is a value bet given his outing in Melbourne which is one of his worst circuits. Vettel and Ferrari can definitely have a crack at both championships.

[El Gordo]

Chinese Grand Prix Winner

Lewis Hamilton $1.85
Sebastian Vettel $3.05
Valtteri Bottas $14.50
Kimi Raikkonen $21
Daniel Ricciardo $44
Max Verstappen $90

Others $300 or better

[beberrycareful]

dominant display by Hamilton

[Chrome Prince]

Ferrari's Formula One championship leader Sebastian Vettel will face no further sanction for his 'road rage' collision with Lewis Hamilton at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
The German, a four times world champion, was given a 10 second stop-and-go penalty during the race for angrily banging wheels with his Mercedes rival while they were behind the safety car.
The International Autmobile Federation said Vettel, who turned 30 on Monday, attended a meeting at its Paris headquarters.
He admitted full responsibility, apologised and also "committed to devote personal time over the next 12 months to educational activities across a variety of FIA championships and events."
The governing body said that "in light of these developments, FIA President Jean Todt decided that on this occasion the matter should be closed."
-Source AAP.

A 10 second penalty is fine for taking another drivers racing line and causing a collision, but a road rage incident behind a safety car is inexcusable as Hamilton pointed out over his radio in a pointed but subtle fashion. These things have a way of evening themselves out, and I can see Hamilton beating Vettel due to better luck as well as skill in Austria.

[jake]

..well done to our boy from perth..daniel ricciardo wins his fifth grand prix
..at one stage sat in 17th position..but got up to win an incident-packed azerbaijan grand prix
..got 80/1 :)

[beberrycareful]

Relatively good odds for Hamilton today, even tho he's been struggling a bit of late

[Playlife]

Over halfway into the season with a narrow lead to Vettel in the WDC. Although I think it's going to be tight all the way, I am now starting to consider cashing out my WDC bets. The races in Malaysian and Japan, which should favour Mercedes, might be worth waiting for before making that decision.

Kimi's inconsistency has allowed Mercedes to get a solid 40odd point lead in the Constructors.

[Playlife]

I hedged out after Malaysia and thank god since Vettel's title hopes vanished in Japan. Still the races in Singapore and Malaysia really dented my profit margin.

Next season should be more open. Keep eyes peeled on testing next year. I find the markets are generally very slow to react to testing, as proven by this thread and pretty much every season I've seen since I've had internet (~2000).

[Chrome Prince]

I also think different tracks suit different setups.
Some suit Mercedes others suit Red Bull for example, it's hard to say in advance because each year the goal posts move.

[kiwiz]

2018 Formula 1 Drivers Championship Winner

Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) 2.25
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) 5.00
Max Verstappen (Red Bull) 5.50
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull) 9.00
Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) 15.00
Fernando Alonso (McLaren) 17.00
Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 34.00

Others 101.00 or better

[kiwiz]

2018 Formula 1 Constructors Championship Winner

Mercedes 1.75
Red Bull 4.00
Ferrari 4.50
McLaren 21.00
Renault 81.00
Williams 251.00
Force India 301.00
Haas 501.00
Sauber 501.00
Toro Rosso 501.00

[Chrome Prince]

Holy Guacamole Kiwiz!
Lewis Hamilton $2.25 before the season even starts, that's gross unders.
He has to win the Championship despite engine failures, crashes, one or two circuits not suited to last year's setup, punctures etc.
You'd think Red Bull learnt a lot about the failed transition from v8's to V6 turbos and have madly been engineering during the winter break.
I'd be happy to take Bottas and Vettel at those odds.

[Chrome Prince]

Well Hamilton should have won Round 1, I could see how shattered he was in the cockpit as he sat and pondered "how did that happen", it's not about the money anymore for him, it's about the competition.
Good news is, Ferrari are competitive and will beat Mercedes at a couple of circuits, however, I still think Hamilton will win another Championship, but the odds are gross unders for mine.
Interesting the new Halo seems to have been endorsed by most drivers and is less obtrusive than I thought. At least they have better safety for the drivers head now in the case of a rollover or slide under a track vehicle.

[Lord Greystoke]

Well Hamilton should have won Round 1, I could see how shattered he was in the cockpit as he sat and pondered "how did that happen", it's not about the money anymore for him, it's about the competition.
Good news is, Ferrari are competitive and will beat Mercedes at a couple of circuits, however, I still think Hamilton will win another Championship, but the odds are gross unders for mine.
Interesting the new Halo seems to have been endorsed by most drivers and is less obtrusive than I thought. At least they have better safety for the drivers head now in the case of a rollover or slide under a track vehicle.

Where is the value in your opinion CP, if you don't mind me asking?

Cheers LG

[Chrome Prince]

Sorry LG, I just saw your post, and after Bahrain the value has gone down. I still think Hamilton will win the Championship again, but I would have had Vettel earlier.
The odds on both are too short now on Betfair!
Could have had Vettel around $7.00, now plummeted to $1.91
The value now is to lay Vettel up to $2.00 before Chinese GP.

[Lord Greystoke]

Sorry LG, I just saw your post, and after Bahrain the value has gone down. I still think Hamilton will win the Championship again, but I would have had Vettel earlier.
The odds on both are too short now on Betfair!
Could have had Vettel around $7.00, now plummeted to $1.91
The value now is to lay Vettel up to $2.00 before Chinese GP.

Nice one Chrome. Value your input mate, as always.

Cheers LG

[Chrome Prince]

Four races into the season and Hamilton leads by four points, and only won in Azerbaijan by pure luck, but then again luck went against him in Melbourne, so it all evens out.
Still think Vettel is unders, even though he's got a better car this year.

[Chrome Prince]

Well you could trade out now LG for a nice profit or just let it ride :)

[Playlife]

I think Vettel is looking handy for the WDC still, despite the 14 point deficit.

Ferrari seem to have the better car on average than Mercedes. RBR as ever will be hard to beat at slow circuits that are heavily aero dependant. Despite Canada having a lot of long straights, good downforce and riding of kerbs is still important and that's why i think RBR are looking competitive here tonight.

Mercedes did not bring an upgraded engine to Canada as they till had reliability concerns. Will be interesting to see when that engine arrives. They clearly lacked 'something' in quali.

[Chrome Prince]

When is the new engine coming Playlife, and will there be a grid penalty?
Currently they have Vettel and Hamilton at $2.62 each to win the WDC.

[El Gordo]

Daniel Ricciardo new two-year deal with Renault from 2019

[Chrome Prince]

Could be a backwards step from Red Bull, they must have really splashed the cash to entice him, good on him, I would have taken the cash also.

There's 24 points between Hamilton and Vettel now after Hamilton's absolute blitz in the latest race.
Lewis Hamilton now $1.58 to win the Championship
Sebastian Vettel now $2.78

Vettel is favourite to take out the Belgian Grand Prix at this point.

[Seekray]

Daniel Ricciardo new two-year deal with Renault from 2019
Short term pain for long term gain

[Playlife]

Sorry guys, a turn of events meant I have been absent for a number of months.

The F1 season really took a strange turn when Ferrari's upgrades didn't work for 3 races before they worked it out.

[Sands]

Short term pain for long term gain
Not sure about the short-term bit
Ricciardo finished seventh at the Chinese Grand Prix after retiring from the first two races of the year because of car troubles

[Seekray]

Yeah Sands, not looking good, another failure on the weekend, Ricciardo’s teammate Nico Hulkenberg not having any luck either, Renault need to get their act together sooner than later