OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

walkermac

20th May 2019, 06:44 PM

Here are the nominees for Saturday's Andrew Ramsden. The winner will receive a ballot exemption for the 2019 Melbourne Cup.

<table><tbody><tr><td>1</td><td>1x21111x15</td><td>EASTENDER </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Barry Campbell</td><td>1</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>102</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>0x34100x04</td><td>RUNAWAY </td><td>R</td><td>4</td><td>Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott</td><td>2</td><td>58kg</td><td></td><td>101</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>078x056782</td><td>SOPRESSA </td><td>M</td><td>4</td><td>Ciaron Maher & David Eustace</td><td>3</td><td>56kg</td><td></td><td>89</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>1151413</td><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ) </td><td>G</td><td>4</td><td>Paul Preusker</td><td>4</td><td>58kg</td><td></td><td>100</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>116x033216</td><td>TRANSACT </td><td>G</td><td>3</td><td>Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott</td><td>5</td><td>54kg</td><td></td><td>85</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>21122x1111</td><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Anthony Freedman</td><td>6</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>99</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>3658x57352</td><td>SHEEZDASHING </td><td>M</td><td>4</td><td>Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra</td><td>7</td><td>56kg</td><td></td><td>88</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>x12120x461</td><td>ALFARRIS (FR) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>David & B Hayes & T Dabernig</td><td>8</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>93</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>52132x8830</td><td>AZURO (FR) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Ciaron Maher & David Eustace</td><td>9</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>82</td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>2218x98006</td><td>TIFFANY’S LASS </td><td>M</td><td>5</td><td>Danny Laws</td><td>10</td><td>56.5kg</td><td></td><td>75</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>8150x08008</td><td>SERENADE THE STARS (IRE) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Peter Gelagotis</td><td>11</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>74</td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>274x236152</td><td>BARRY THE BAPTIST </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Paul A Jones</td><td>12</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>80</td></tr> <tr><td>13</td><td>723x512103</td><td>FELAAR (NZ) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Stephen Marsh</td><td>13</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>88</td></tr> <tr><td>14</td><td>321492691</td><td>GOLDEN AUTHORITY (NZ) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Dane Smith</td><td>14</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>81</td></tr> <tr><td>15</td><td>142x710x61</td><td>SASKO </td><td>G</td><td>4</td><td>Tony McEvoy</td><td>15</td><td>58kg</td><td></td><td>80</td></tr> <tr><td>16</td><td>6x38111324</td><td>ROCKARRAL </td><td>G</td><td>4</td><td>Tony McEvoy</td><td>16</td><td>58kg</td><td></td><td>78</td></tr> <tr><td>17</td><td>x521356121</td><td>CHOUXTING THE MOB (NZ) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Simon Morrish</td><td>17</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>69</td></tr> <tr><td>18</td><td>314247x815</td><td>SAN REMO (IRE) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Dane Smith</td><td>18</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>68</td></tr> <tr><td>19</td><td>8488343321</td><td>BEMBOKA QUEEN </td><td>M</td><td>4</td><td>Robbie Laing</td><td>19</td><td>56kg</td><td></td><td>65</td></tr> <tr><td>20</td><td>6466x35984</td><td>INSTIGATOR (GER) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Aaron Purcell</td><td>20</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>76</td></tr> <tr><td>21</td><td>427x221243</td><td>SKYWAY STAR </td><td>F</td><td>3</td><td>Symon Wilde</td><td>21</td><td>52kg</td><td></td><td>66</td></tr> <tr><td>22</td><td>35110x5143</td><td>FAIRLIGHT (IRE) </td><td>G</td><td>4</td><td>Kris Lees</td><td>22</td><td>58kg</td><td></td><td>72</td></tr> <tr><td>23</td><td>6474907934</td><td>MENTAL TELEPATHY (NZ) </td><td>G</td><td>5</td><td>Simon Morrish</td><td>23</td><td>58.5kg</td><td></td><td>73</td></tr> <tr><td>24</td><td>0185x12337</td><td>AMERICAN IN PARIS </td><td>G</td><td>3</td><td>Symon Wilde</td><td>24</td><td>54kg</td><td></td><td>67</td></tr></tbody></table>

Surprise Baby looks one of the likeliest candidates.

Rogan Josh

29th May 2019, 12:28 PM

Here are the nominees for Saturday's Andrew Ramsden. The winner will receive a ballot exemption for the 2019 Melbourne Cup.

Surprise Baby looks one of the likeliest candidates.
Tip-top finish. Steel Prince got the golden ticket. Surprise Baby gallant in defeat. Dead-heat would have been nice, both would have got thru. The race a hit with fans.

walkermac

30th May 2019, 05:27 PM

Steel Prince is the first horse into the 2019 Melbourne Cup after winning last weekend's Andrew Ramsden. He's at $31 in early Melbourne Cup betting, finishing just 0.1L ahead of Surprise Baby ($26) who inarguably had the better race: drawn second widest, 3 wide or worse the trip, back further than midfield but took the lead at the 200m mark before being narrowly out-sprinted in the final furlong. Eastender ($67) flashed home to finish in 3rd position, 2.4L adrift.

Having a ballot exemption for the Andrew Ramsden was intended to provide a pathway for Australian horses into the Cup. While Steel Prince is Irish-bred and had a handful of early races there, it seems he's been a local since 2017. From August 2018, Steel Prince has had 11 starts for 7 wins and 4 seconds (with all bar two starts at 2400m or greater).

Now spelling, his connections will be able to tailor his Spring program so that he peaks on Cup Day.

(sorry for my dupe info Rogan Josh, I've had this browser tab open for a couple of days waiting for motivation to strike; I didn't refresh before posting)

walkermac

30th May 2019, 11:37 PM

2019 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP
(159th of Series)
3200 Metres
TUESDAY 5 NOVEMBER 2019
At FLEMINGTON RACECOURSE, MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA

Prizes
First - $4,000,000 and trophies valued at $200,000, $20,000, $15,000, $7,500 & $7,500 to owner, rider, trainer, strapper and breeder respectively
Second - $1,000,000
Third - $500,000
Fourth - $300,000
Fifth - $200,000
Sixth - $150,000
Seventh - $150,000
Eighth - $150,000
Ninth - $150,000
Tenth - $150,000
Eleventh - $150,000
Twelfth - $150,000

For horses earning prizemoney for being placed 1st – 12th inclusive, respective prizemonies payable shall be distributed as follows:
Owner - 85%; Trainer - 10%; Rider - 5%

Entries
Entries close at 12 NOON on THURSDAY 29 AUGUST 2019. Fee - $1800.
(Late Entries: Any horse not previously entered may be nominated before 12 NOON on THURSDAY 5 SEPTEMBER 2019. Fee - $5,500.)

Handicaps
Handicaps will be declared not later than TUESDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2018.

Benchmark Weights:
3YO C&G 50.0kg; 3YO Filly 48.5kg
4YO E&G 58.0kg; 4YO Mare 56.5kg
5YO+ E&G 59.5kg 5YO+ Mare 58.0kg

<red>Change to benchmark weights this year: </red>
NH 3YO C&G 56.5kg; NH 3YO Filly 55.0kg

Minimum Handicap Weight:
3YO 49.0kg
4YO&Up 50.0kg.

There is no maximum weight for this race. Minimum top weight of 58kg at the time of weights being released. There is no minimum top weight after acceptances.

No allowances for apprentices.

Weight Penalties
The Handicapper can determine that, after declaration of weights, a subsequent winner of an internationally recognised Listed, Group or Graded flat race may carry additional weight. (It's only applicable for handicapped races >= 1600m, or non-handicaps >= 2300m).

Declarations of Acceptance
There is now a third declaration ahead of final declarations. It now costs an additional $1,000 all-up, in comparison to last year.

First Declaration: TUESDAY 1 OCTOBER (Fee: $2,000)
Second Declaration: TUESDAY 15 OCTOBER (Fee: $3,000)
Third Declaration: MONDAY 28 OCTOBER (Fee: $4,000

Final Declaration: SATURDAY 3 NOVEMBER (Fee: $49,500)
Any horse for which a declaration is not received is removed from the race.

Rider Notification
By 7.00 PM, SATURDAY 2 NOVEMBER

Ballot Exemptions
- 2019 Andrew Ramsden
- 2019 VRC Bart Cummings
- 2019 VRC Hotham Handicap (Lexus Stakes)
- 2019 MVRC Cox Plate
- 2019 MRC Caulfield Cup

Qualifying Performances

A) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further;
OR won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the:

Queensland Derby (2018 - Dark Dream, Heavenly Thought, Mahamedeis; 2019 - TBH 8th June),
Queensland Oaks (2018 - Youngstar, Another Dollar, Sheezdashing; 2019 - TBH 1st June), or

Brisbane Cup (2018 - Sedanzer, Anton En Avant, Kiwia; 2109 - TBH 8th June) OR

B) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, was placed 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run, OR

C) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further, OR

D) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the York Ebor (UK; 2018 - Muntahaa, Weekender, Sea The Lion; 2019 - TBH 24th August) or Champions & Chater Cup (HK; 2018 - Pakistan Star, Exultant, Gold Mount; 2019 - Exultant, Rise High, Dark Dream), OR

E) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won the Northumberland Plate (UK; 2018 - Withhold; 2019 - TBH 29th June), Cesarewitch (UK; 2018 - Low Sun; 2019 - TBH 12th October), or Queen Mother Memorial Cup (HK; 2018 - Exultant; 2019 - Mulanchi), OR

F) was placed 6th, 7th or 8th in the 2019 MRC Caulfield Cup (20th October), OR

G) was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2019 MVRC Cox Plate (26th October), OR

H) won the 2019 VRC TAB Turnbull Stakes (5th October), OR

I) won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2017 Emirates Melbourne Cup (Rekindling, Johannes Vermeer, Max Dynamite), OR

J) won the 2017 Caulfield Cup (Boom Time)

Ballot order will be - asides from those runners who are exempt - in descending weight figure. Those of equal weight will be ordered by aggregate prizemoney received in Qualifying Races since 1 February 2018 inclusive.

Progressive order of entry lists will be available on a regular basis from Friday 13 September 2019.

walkermac

31st May 2019, 02:57 PM

Qualifying Performances

Queensland Oaks (2018 - Youngstar, Another Dollar, Sheezdashing; 2019 - TBH 1st June), or The Queensland Oaks are on tomorrow. Last year's first two placegetters - Another Dollar and Youngstar - both nominated for the 2018 Melbourne Cup, with the latter making the final field and finishing in 6th position. The winner of the Oaks will score $300,000: which was enough to be 31st in the initial Order of Entry list last year (Youngstar also came 3rd in the Queensland Derby - another qualifying race - which bumped her eligible prizemoney up enough so that she was in 28th). Youngstar subsequently earned $120,000 for a 7th placing in the Caulfield Cup to be #22 on the big day.

While of course dependent on overseas entrants, the Oaks winner will be in a very good position to make the Melbourne Cup final field. Northern hemisphere 3 years olds in the Cup have also collectively been penalised 1kg this year, so perhaps that will result in fewer entries making their way here.

The race favourite is PRINCESS JENNI, who has a 4kg advantage on the rest of the field per the official handicap ratings. She won the Australasian Oaks at Morphettville earlier this month over 2000m on a soft track. She also has the same sire as Youngstar: High Chaparral. Her broodmare sire is Zabeel, which is a mix that has had some pretty good results. Per the Nicking Stats for mares by Zabeel (NZ) when bred to High Chaparral (IRE), progeny have nearly 5 times the average earning index. It looks like she'll have no problem getting the Cup distance; to the extent that I was worried she may be too dour. Following her Australasian Oaks win though, a stable rep said: "Every time since her maiden win, she's always been sharp, always had a serious turn of foot and to overcome a bunch of problems in the run to sprint like that when the gap came was impressive." So if Princess Jenni can back up and win tomorrow she's a good chance of making the Cup field....and finishing 5th-10th. (No mare has finished better than 5th the past 11 runnings).

Overseas this weekend, one could cast their gaze to the Group 2 Grand Prix De Chantilly or the Group 1 Coronation Cup.

The latter, set to jump just after midnight tonight, is likely to be of more interest, with the following starters:
Communique
Cypress Creek
Defoe
Kew Gardens
Marmelo
Morando
Old Persian
Salouen
Lah Ti Dar

Kew Gardens was number 1 in the Melbourne Cup order of entry last year but elected not to come. He's favourite here at $3.25, with Old Persian ($4) and Lah Ti Dar ($4.50) close behind. Last year's Melbourne Cup second placegetter Marmelo is at $19.

Finche (4th) came through the Grand Prix De Chantilly last year. It's on June 2nd and it may be easier to find the runners in a day or so.

wotarun

31st May 2019, 04:51 PM

Tip-top finish. Steel Prince got the golden ticket. Surprise Baby gallant in defeat. Dead-heat would have been nice, both would have got thru. The race a hit with fans.
Huge effort Surprise Baby, wide most of the race. A post-race veterinary examination revealed that the gelding pulled up distressed. He gave his all. I'm now a fan!

walkermac

1st June 2019, 09:35 PM

Boilover in the Queensland Oaks. Taking the victory was Winning Ways at $21, quickly followed by Dawson Diva and Lady Cuvee: both at $151! Consequently the exotics were HUGE. The trifecta paid over $180k on UBet; though 'only' $10k in NSW. The first four were all over the $100k mark across all pools.

Winning Ways wasn't that bad of a prospect. She had won 3 of her last 4, though finished midfield in The Roses - her immediately preceding race - which seemed to turn people off. Per the race notes, she got way too far back in that run from a wide draw, running on comfortably but left with too much to do.

It seems silly to say given that she won, but Winning Ways clearly had the best run today. The leading four in running (which included race favourite Princess Jenni) took the field along at a fast clip, with Winning Ways a small break behind. Finishers in second through fifth were all running towards the rear and gobbled up a tired field, though Winning Ways was able to hold them all off.

It was an emotional win, given that her owner had died the preceding week. After the race her trainer Garry Newham said: "This is the best filly I have ever had my hands on. She could be a Caulfield Cup horse". Following the race though, stewards reported she had bled and is banned from racing for three months - likely she was to spell anyway. Hopefully she can come back fit and healthy for a Spring campaign.

So: Winning Ways, Dawson Diva and Lady Cuvee have all now passed the first ballot clause of the Melbourne Cup. The latter pairing will likely have to win a few more qualifying races to amass enough eligible prizemoney to threaten making the final field. You could read into the trainer's statement somewhat that there are queries at the Cup distance.

Watch the full race here: https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/e%20fm/20190309/race/6

The Coronation Cup has been run in the UK with Defoe taking out a comfortable 0.5L win ahead of Kew Gardens. They broke away from the rest of the field, putting on an additional 5 lengths. The race was one of the fastest of latter years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYRP4st_-Cw

Leading into the race Defoe had an Official Handicap Rating (from Irish authorities) of 115, whereas Kew Gardens (from British authorities) was 120. They were at level weights here and Kew Gardens was said to be targeting this race since the start of the season. So a very encouraging performance by Defoe (who also beat the 117-rated Marmelo by 9 lengths). Would likely receive a very challenging handicap for the Melbourne Cup now and one could think it pretty unlikely that either of Defoe or Kew Gardens will try their luck in Australia.

The field is set for the Grand Prix de Chantilly:
Listen In
Aspetar
Gyllen
Silverware
Petit Fils
Folamour
Ziyad

Aspetar is owned by Sheikh Fahad al Thani (of Qatar Bloodstock), who won the 2011 Melbourne Cup with Dunaden, trained by Roger Charlton who had Quest For More in the 2015 Cup and failed to qualify with Withhold last year.

Gyllen is a Godolphin runner trained by Andre Fabre, who brought Vadamos to Australia in 2016 (finishing 4th in both the Cox Plate and Mackinnon Stakes).

Both Folamour and Ziyad are owned by Wertheimer & Frere, a racing and breeding operation. They bred Americain and Dunaden, amongst others, but I'm not sure they have brought any runners out here themselves.

Aspetar looks a particularly interesting candidate: resuming in April over a Group 3 2400m, he finished in 2nd place, 1 length behind Marmelo and 3 lengths ahead of Defoe at level weights. Didn't do so well in his next, but was said not to handle the soft conditions. 2w-3p from 7 starts. Looks like he should be able to handle further than 2400m.

kiwiz

2nd June 2019, 04:53 AM

Tip-top finish. Steel Prince got the golden ticket. Surprise Baby gallant in defeat. Dead-heat would have been nice, both would have got thru. The race a hit with fans.
Both have firmed in the Cup market I've been watching
Steel Prince $21,,Surprise Baby $26
Cross Counter $15 favourite

walkermac

3rd June 2019, 01:34 AM

The field is set for the Grand Prix de Chantilly:
< snip >
<snip>Aspetar looks a particularly interesting candidate: resuming in April over a Group 3 2400m, he finished in 2nd place, 1 length behind Marmelo and 3 lengths ahead of Defoe at level weights. Didn't do so well in his next, but was said not to handle the soft conditions. 2w-3p from 7 starts. Looks like he should be able to handle further than 2400m.Aspetar wins at $9.50, runs what appears to be a race record of 2'24.60s and collects around $AUD120k of prizemoney. Ziyad was second 0.75L behind, with Silverware 1.25L third.

</snip><snip> http://media.geny.com/web/photo/arv/88/photo_arrivee_1063488.jpg
</snip>

You can watch the race here: https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2019-06-02/R1/C4

Ran slightly worse than midfield, gave the leaders around 6 lengths start and ran them down somewhat comfortably. Wrap him up in cotton wool, send him down here and run him in a lead-up race if he needs to jump up the order of entry.

suds

3rd June 2019, 05:59 PM

Huge effort Surprise Baby, wide most of the race. A post-race veterinary examination revealed that the gelding pulled up distressed. He gave his all. I'm now a fan!
Not surprising, Surprise Baby off for a well-earned break

walkermac

4th June 2019, 10:53 PM

Some qualifying races this weekend:

The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational will be held Saturday morning, Australian time. Red Cardinal won the race in 2017. Last year the field included Prince of Arran, who went on to take out third place in the Melbourne Cup.

The field this year:
Mootasadir
Noble Thought
Amade
Red Knight
Highland Sky
Arklow
Hunter O'Riley
Raa Atoll
Canessar

Mootasadir is trained by Hugo Palmer who brought out Wall of Fire for the 2017 Melbourne Cup. He's also owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa bin Saeed Al Maktoum, cousin of the Dubai ruler and Godolphin head.

Hugo spoke earlier this year regarding Mootasadir's target: "The long-term aim, an end goal, is for him to be a Melbourne Cup horse - but we have got to jump through various hoops to get there first."

One of those hoops may be his poor showing on turf. Of his 9 starts he's had an impressive 6 wins, but those 3 losses (by 3L, 42L, and 18L respectively) have been his only runs on a turf surface. Per the British official ratings, he's a 6kg better horse on All-Weather. Speaking prior to his last loss - which admittedly was against Stradivarius - Palmer said: "He has got excuses for both runs on turf, but he has not done much wrong. Hopefully we can now try and get that win on the turf into him."

The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational is over the turf course. It's also over 3200m: 800m further than his longest race to date.

Raa Atoll is reportedly another horse with Melbourne Cup aims. He won the €100,000 G2 Comer Group International Oleander-Rennen (3200m) at Berlin’s Hoppegarten racecourse, defeating Thomas Hobson by 1.5 lengths, in mid-May. Thomas Hobson was the $1.50 favourite. Watch the race here: https://youtu.be/pgeWkOCIxvQ. The past two winners of the Oleander-Rennen have relocated to Australia - Red Cardinal (2017) and Sound Check (2018) - with both horses unplaced in subsequent Melbourne Cup attempts. Raa Atoll ran a quicker race though, if that counts for anything.

Raa Atoll went up against a few other familiar names last season, finishing just over 1L behind Rostropovich in the 2400m Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at level weights, then failed badly (58L) in his next race, which featured Best Solution and Duretto.

Also overseas this weekend, runners could pass the first ballot clause in contesting the Belmont Stakes, Brooklyn Invitational Stakes (also at Belmont) or the Betway Pinnacle Stakes (at Haydock Park, UK). Looks unlikely any candidate will come from those races though.

In Australia we're set for the Queensland Derby (first 5 in betting: Nobu, Mr Quickie, Scarlet Dream, Carif, Fun Fact) and Brisbane Cup (Sixties Groove, The Candy Man, Haripour, Life Less Ordinary, Grey Lion) at Eagle Farm this Saturday.

walkermac

8th June 2019, 09:11 AM

Amade takes out the Belmont Gold Cup. I read last night that OTI Racing had bought into him this March and boss Terry Henderson was confident he was well-placed in the race leading in:

"It’s a Group 2 race and a win there would probably take him up to (an international rating of) 112-to-114 mark and that makes him a serious Melbourne Cup horse.

"Red Cardinal won it a couple of years ago. It’s on a flat track (the same as Flemington) so we get a good assessment of that and it’s also left-handed – the Melbourne way of running – so we’ll get a pretty good idea."

Per their twitter after this morning's win: "A Melbourne Cup campaign will very much be on the agenda after an incredible win for connections!"

You can read a comprehensive pre-race profile on him (and the other internationals in the field) here: https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2019/06/05/2019-belmont-gold-cup-international-scouting-reports-raa-atoll-mootasadir-amade

You can watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRbfcKTh6Pg (with Spanish commentary).

Mootasadir and Raa Atoll were 1-2 most of the way. They only seemed to go at a moderate pace though and were swept past in the straight. Race time was 3'19.95, which is the slowest since it become a black type race a few years ago.

OTI Racing have Grey Lion ($7) and Master Zephyr ($101) in today's Brisbane Cup.

walkermac

8th June 2019, 08:36 PM

In Australia we're set for the Queensland Derby (first 5 in betting: Nobu, Mr Quickie, Scarlet Dream, Carif, Fun Fact) and Brisbane Cup (Sixties Groove, The Candy Man, Haripour, Life Less Ordinary, Grey Lion) at Eagle Farm this Saturday.Mr Quickie won the Queensland Derby ("[F]or his age: gee this horse can stay, his record speaks for itself he's remarkable", said Trainer Phillip Stokes) and Sixties Groove took out the Brisbane Cup ("This is the first time he has actually been out to a trip since we owned him. We bought him thinking he would be a Caulfield Cup horse," Australian Bloodstock’s Jamie Lovett said).

Not sure there's much thought of Mr Quickie going to the Melbourne Cup (currently unlisted in the Futures Market) whereas Sixties Groove looks at least some chance ($201).

That's it for local qualifying races until the Newcastle Gold Cup on September 13th. Is it any wonder the race is now dominated by overseas horses?

Speaking of foreign candidates, the next likeliest source of those runners is during the Royal Ascot Carnival (June 15th - June 24th).

walkermac

11th June 2019, 12:18 PM

Changes announced today increased this year's Melbourne Cup prizepool to $8mil from $7.3mil:

First - <strike>$4,000,000</strike> $4,400,000 and trophies valued at $200,000, $20,000, $15,000, $7,500 & $7,500 to owner, rider, trainer, strapper and breeder respectively
Second - <strike>$1,000,000</strike> $1,100,000
Third - <strike>$500,000</strike> $550,000
Fourth - <strike>$300,000</strike> $350,000
Fifth - <strike>$200,000</strike> $230,000
Sixth - <strike>$150,000</strike> $160,000
Seventh - <strike>$150,000</strike> $160,000
Eighth - <strike>$150,000</strike> $160,000
Ninth - <strike>$150,000</strike> $160,000
Tenth - <strike>$150,000</strike> $160,000
Eleventh - <strike>$150,000</strike> $160,000
Twelfth - <strike>$150,000</strike> $160,000

For horses earning prizemoney for being placed 1st – 12th inclusive, respective prizemonies payable shall be distributed as follows:
Owner - 85%; Trainer - 10%; Rider - 5%

walkermac

18th June 2019, 03:54 PM

Gold Mount won a guaranteed spot in the Ebor Handicap in the Listed 2800m Grand Cup Stakes at York over the weekend. The Ebor is held on the same/course distance and the last three winners there have subsequently contested The Melbourne Cup (2016: Heartbreak City, 2017: Nakeeta, 2018: Muntahaa). There is no guarantee he takes his earned position though, as it's also a handicapped race:

"In terms of the Ebor I think the handicapper will give him plenty of weight. He's a small horse, a big weight in a top handicap might be tough for him,” his trainer Ian Williams said.

"He's been sent to me to be prepared for the Melbourne Cup, so we'll work back from there."

You can watch his Grand Cup Stakes run here: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/3/94641/

Gold Mount races at the rear before easily accounting for the rest of the field in the straight. As impressive as it looks, it's in a small field, he's a 6yo who will likely be weighted such that the same tactics won't work as well in the Melbourne Cup, and the time was 5secs slower than what Marmelo ran to win the same race the year previous.

Gold Mount is an English horse who spent a spent a couple of seasons in Hong Kong. There, the owners decided to aim him at the Melbourne Cup. Shipping him back to the UK seems like a roundabout way of going about things, but there are so many more opportunities to qualify by that route.

This was his first black-type win, which was preceded by 13 Group starts for 3 minor placings. His prior race was in the Dubai Gold Cup, his first over the 3200m distance, where Cross Counter beat him by 8 lengths (with Gold Mount carrying 2.5kg extra).

Trainer Ian Williams was here last year with Magic Circle, who finished 16th in the Cup. (Magic Circle has since contested just the one race, resuming in a 2700m Group 3 at Chester, finishing in 3rd position and 8.5L behind the winner Morando. More encouragingly, in 2nd position - and only 0.5L ahead - was Kew Gardens).

Gold Mount is currently at $26 in Melbourne Cup futures with Magic Circle at $61.

walkermac

18th June 2019, 05:09 PM

I'm not really a follower of overseas racing (only in retrospect once the Melbourne Cup nominees are announced) but looking at the Royal Ascot Racing Carnival, the following races would be qualifying performances for the Melbourne Cup:

Queen's Vase - Wednesday midnight (AEST)
Group 2 - 2847m - 3yo

He didn't ultimately come to the Melbourne Cup, but last year's winner of this race, Kew Gardens, was an entrant. Hartnell and Stradivarius are also past victors. Western Australia is the current favourite ($4 - trained by Aidan O'Brien who has won 3 of the past 4 runnings), followed by Norway ($4.80 - also trained by O'Brien) and Jalmoud ($6 - trained by Charlie Appleby and owned by Godolphin, who teamed up to win the Cup with Cross Counter last year). Northern Hemisphere 3yo's have essentially been penalised an extra kilogram this year, but I don't expect that to be enough to totally dissuade those with a handy chance to make the trip, given the success of similarly-aged horses in recent times.

The Gold Cup - Thursday 11:50pm (AEST)
Group 1 - 4014m - 4yo+

Cross Counter vs the defending champ Stradivarius is the headline act with Dee Ex Bee, Kew Gardens, Flag of Honour, Magic Circle, Thomas Hobson and Master of Reality among those also featuring. Trip To Paris won this race in 2015 ahead of a Melbourne Cup tilt in the same year. At one stage he was favourite in the lead-up and finished a nice 4th in the Prince of Penzance win/dodgem derby. A place behind in that same race was Big Orange who would go on to win The Gold Cup a couple of years later.

The King Edward VII Stakes - Friday midnight (AEST)
Group 2 - 2406m - 3yo C&G

Rostropovich was second in this race last year. Best Solution was 10th in it the year prior.

The Hardwicke Stakes -Sunday 12:40am
Group 2 - 2406m - 4yo+

walkermac

21st June 2019, 03:12 PM

Queen's Vase

Dashing Willoughby takes out the 2800m Queen's Vase, beating Barbados and Nayef Road in wet conditions after a betting plunge saw his starting odds halve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bGrZSmpXDE. Winner Dashing Willoughby is heading to the St Leger, as will the majority of this field given that they're all colts.

The Gold Cup

Stradivarius goes back-to-back, jumping at evens. He was always in the front group, alongside placegetters Dee Ex Bee and Master of Reality. Looked to be in a little danger after being boxed-in until well down the home straight, but Frankie Dettori managed to get him out. Cross Counter was the only challenger to run on from the rear and finished in 4th; this lead bunch putting 5 lengths on the rest of the field. The track condition was Soft, the race time nearly 10 seconds slower than what Stradivarius achieved last year.

Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOKDLEyQPms

No chance of Stradivarius coming out for the Melbourne Cup: the handicapper would have him towing a caravan.

Dee Ex Bee's racing manager seems to think they could turn the tables if things went a little differently. Apparently Dee Ex Bee's a battler who was focused on the tussle with Master of Reality on his immediate outside, rather than the lead horse who was wider. I think he's just proud of his horse.

The Lloyd Williams Group owns Master of Reality and Nick Williams confirmed after the race that he'll be heading to Melbourne. Followers might recall that Master of Reality was meant to come to Australia last season (as companion to Latrobe), but there was no space for him in quarantine. I think he's a bit on the dour side if he makes the final field of the Melbourne Cup, but he should ensure that the race goes at a genuine clip, hoping to outlast the rest.

Cross Counter would have lost very few fans with his performance. As noted above, he was the only horse to run on. At 2.5 miles it's a little longer than he'd like and perhaps reason enough that he didn't have quite the speedy, sustained finish as shown in the past - though the 57.5kg might have had something to with it also, along with the soft surface. Trainer Charlie Appleby stated after the race that a return for the Melbourne Cup would likely depend on the weight he was allotted - but it's certainly not off the table.

walkermac

23rd June 2019, 01:25 PM

The King Edward VII Stakes
Group 2 - 2406m - 3yo C&G

Japan (the horse; not the country) won the King Edward VII stakes in comprehensive fashion. From his Jockey Ryan Moore: "This is a high-class colt. He's very good, and he put them to bed very easily there," he said. "He was the best horse. It was just keeping it simple, really. He could be more than a Leger horse—he's a good horse. He will be very effective over a mile and a half."

He looks to be headed toward the St Leger but there appears to be some thought of meeting all-aged horses in the King George first, or even going on to the Arc. Bangkok and Eagles By Day took out the minors; neither of whom are talking about heading to Melbourne.

Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZQLxVm-NpI

The Hardwicke Stakes
Group 2 - 2406m - 4yo+

It was another favourite that took out the Hardwicke Stakes. Defoe has already had a few mentions in this thread, including noting his lead-up win in the Coronation Cup at a new career peak. Gelding really seems to have done him some favours. It was only a 0.75L win ahead of Nagano Gold, whose jockey spent the first furlong of the race determining his mount was still in one piece after Masar on his outside came out of the gates sideways. He was also held up and checked in the dash for home as he swept from the rear.

Nagano Gold is a Czech horse. In 2016 there was a Czech entrant for the Melbourne Cup, Trip To Rhodos, but they weren't able to come in the end due to quarantine regulations. Because there is no agreement between Australia and the Czech Republic, a horse needs to spend 60 days in an approved country prior to importation. They left it too late in 2016, it looks like connections here are going to keep him in Europe.

Watch the race here: https://youtu.be/yZ4ZQzDeuhg

I listened to a radio interview from a couple of weeks ago with the VRC's Executive General Manager, who was asked about some of the foreign horses they were trying to get to Melbourne for the Cup (https://player.fm/series/rsn-racing-pulse/the-vrcs-executive-gm-of-racing-leigh-jordon-with-his-melbourne-cup-wish-list). He said that there were a couple of runners in today's Takarazuka Kinen that had expressed some interest.

The Takarazuka Kinen is a Group 1 2200m Turf race to be held at Hanshin racecourse later this afternoon. In recent times at least, the Japanese horses who have made the trip to Australia have tended to have proven they can run the Cup distance, rather than be the horse who can run it most effectively given the style of race. So it's interesting that a "couple of potential candidates" are contesting a far shorter race this time.

No word on which of the runners are among those to have expressed interest, but the #1 horse Kiseki is trained by Katsuhiko Sumii who took out the 2006 Melbourne Cup with Delta Blues - and also trained Pop Rock who finished in 2nd. Kiseki also won a G1 3000m race for 3yos in 2017, so little fear of the 2 miles.

After googling about, I discovered that it was reported earlier this month that Kiseki had received an invite from the Moonee Valley Racing Club to contest the Cox Plate. Almond Eye received a similar invite and had been anticipated to be in this race (runners are selected by popular vote and she was on top of the count) but withdrew. It's a fair chance that these are the two runners that were hinted at in the radio interview.

Rey de Oro is the favourite in the race, but 6 of the 12 runners are at $10 or under (Kiseki is at $11 first up) so it will be hotly contested.

walkermac

23rd June 2019, 05:36 PM

Rey de Oro is the favourite in the race, but 6 of the 12 runners are at $10 or under (Kiseki is at $11 first up) so it will be hotly contested.There was a fair bit of movement in the odds with Kiseki actually jumping as favourite ($3.60). Kiseki led most of the way - and well into the straight - before Lys Gracieux ($5.40) took over and cantered away with it. On board was Aussie Damian Lane. Kiseki held second place 3 lengths back and two ahead of Suave Richard in 3rd. It was the second fastest running over this course/distance since 1993 (which is how far wikipedia results go back to).

Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNA9yh0Jga8

The Takarazuka Kinen may not be a Melbourne Cup qualifying race, but Kiseki came 2nd in the Japan Cup late last year - which is, given it's a G1 2400m - earning over $7mil. If they want in The Cup then a start would be pretty much assured.

He looks to have changed his running style, perhaps with an Australian tilt in mind. His early races saw him running towards the rear, whereas the last few have had him lead. Kiseki also looks comfortable on tracks that aren't the typical Japanese Firm: that 3000m victory mentioned previously was on a heavy turf track.

I think he might be slightly better suited to the Cox and Caulfield, but the extra entry fees for the Melbourne Cup wouldn't be a problem: why not all three! ;)

walkermac

27th June 2019, 12:39 PM

A little bit of action overseas for potential foreign raiders:

There were some qualifying races in Italy and the USA (the Premio Gran Premio Di Milano and the San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap, respectively) but it's unlikely any candidates were racing there.

A more likely source is Friday's Comer Group International Curragh Cup, a Group 2 2800m. Winners in past years have included Rekindling (2017) and Red Cadeaux (2011). There's currently a field of 19 though this includes several Dual Acceptors and it appears a max of 14 will make it to the gates. Twelve of the 19 horses are trained by O'Briens; 10 are sired by Galileo.

The "name horse" in the field is Latrobe who, of course, is owned by the Williams Team and was shipped to Australia to run in last year's Cup. They eventually elected not to run him there due to the horse's immaturity, instead contesting the McKinnon Stakes where Latrobe was a narrow 2nd.

Capri and Southern France have the highest ratings going into the race though there are plenty of challengers early on in their careers amongst the field. This includes Kangaroo Valley, who won a 2400m maiden by 8 lengths on Sunday (with a further 8 lengths back to third).

Barbados is back after his second placing in the Queen's Vase and Raa Atoll returns from his US trip hoping to get back on track for his owner (and sponsor of the race).

Back at Curragh on Saturday is the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, a 2400m Group 1 for 3yos. Latrobe won this race last year and Capri the year before. Anthony Van Dyck and Broome from Coolmore are at the top of betting currently, with Shadwell Racing's Madhmoon also under $4.

There have been a few stories of late regarding the penalisation of northern hemisphere 3 year olds in the Melbourne Cup this year (despite the information clearly appearing in the race conditions upon release over a month ago) so it will be interesting if any challengers come out of this race.

Also this weekend are the following qualifying races:

Oslo Cup (2400m Group 3)
Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud (2400m Group 1)
Prix De Malleret (also at Saint-Cloud over 2400m but a Group 2 for 3yo fillies)
Pferdewetten.De Grosser Hansa-Preis (2400m Group 2; Protectionist won in 2014 and 2016)

Looking at Melbourne Cup futures betting at Ladbrokes: Cross Counter is shortest at $15 with overseas winners Master of Reality ($16) and Amade ($21) next in line.

Raa Atoll is misspelt (Raa Atoli) at $34 and they're remarkably bullish regarding the chances of Libran ($201) given that he was sadly euthanised after a track accident earlier this month.

walkermac

2nd July 2019, 06:15 PM

Comer Group International Curragh Cup
(Group 2 2800m)

Latrobe held most of the race interest - certainly from a future Melbourne Cup perspective - but finished a narrow second to Twilight Payment, a former Godolphin horse. TP had previously finished 2nd to Order of St George on two occasions and within 3 lengths of Rekindling in his winning year. He had come into the Curragh Cup winning the Listed Levmoss Stakes over the same distance, so was showing good form.

After that race his trainer Jim Bolger was reported as saying: "The better horses have been running well over the last six weeks and any little step up on that was helpful. He'd a good run at Navan the last day. He could go for the Curragh Cup and maybe Melbourne later in the year. He's been a good servant and is nothing if not consistent".

Interestingly, the horse he beat in that Stakes race - Falcon Eight (who Racing Victoria's GM of International Operations revealed today is on their Melbourne Cup wishlist) - is listed at $26 now on Sportsbet for the Melbourne Cup. In the race prior he was within two lengths of Master of Reality, who's at $21. Twilight Payment doesn't feature in that list (or Ladbroke's or TAB's), but it was noted in several articles I've read that he's at $51.

They're now likely to aim him at the St Leger trials (16th August) and then the St Leger Stakes (14th September) - 7 weeks out from The Cup. Plenty of time to make an attempt here, given that a horse must spend 2 weeks in quarantine prior to travel, followed by a further 2 weeks at Werribee.

Watch the race here: https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/ondemand/34577

Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby
(2400m Group 1 for 3yos)

Latrobe won this race last year. Anthony Van Dyck and Broome were at the top of early betting here and they're still listed quite highly in Cup futures (both $26 at TAB). They got whacked in this race though by another Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien runner - Sovereign, at odds - who put 6 lengths on the others.

He went out to a huge early lead and the field could make very little in-road, with some calling it a betting sting. He did win his maiden by 14 lengths, so has talent, but his record appears very inconsistent.

Watch the race here: https://youtu.be/SRAyZpPD9BU

There might be an interesting prospect from another race on the same program: Buckhurst, who took out the 2000m International Stakes. Trained by Joseph O'Brien and owned by Lloyd Williams. Johannes Vermeer won the same race in 2017. As did Yucatan last year. Looks a good'n and is at $101 at Ladbroke's.

Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud
(2400m Group 1)

Last year's Cup's second placegetter Marmelo finished 4 lengths back in 5th without threatening, just behind the Grand Prix de Chantilly winner Aspetar. Out in front was Coronet, closely followed by Ziyad and Lah Ti Dar. It was 36 degrees there the day before. Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gQLBrP01jw

Square de Luynes won the Oslo Cup (2400m Group 3). Race fave Mehdaayih won the Prix De Malleret (2400m Group 2 for 3yo fillies) and another fave in French King authoritatively won the Grosser Hansa-Preis (2400m Group 2).

Coming up this weekend are the qualifying races the Lancashire Oaks and Deutsches Derby, both for 3 year olds and likely not of a standard to warrant the trip here.

Looking at Futures markets, Godolphin's Ispolini is a horse that seems to be a quiet overachiever. On Ladbroke's he's at $21, the second line of betting, alongside Marmelo, Master of Reality and Torcedor (who missed his flight to Melbourne last year on reporting an elevated temperature). I haven't found any news saying he's coming, but he previously had an entry in this year's Sydney Cup. After winning the Nad Al Sheba Trophy (check out the finish: https://youtu.be/Tf0mhcEXq7Y?t=156) he elected to remain in Dubai for the Gold Cup instead, finishing 1.25L behind Cross Counter and way ahead of Gold Mount and Prince of Arran. That was back in March and he's since finished 7 lengths behind Stradivarius in the Yorkshire Cup Stakes.

walkermac

3rd July 2019, 03:41 PM

Channel 10 have won the broadcast rights for The Melbourne Cup this year (along with some supporting Spring Carnival meetings) and have just announced that they'll also be showing some international meetings in the lead-up. I guess that the idea is to highlight potential runners so that those imports who do come don't quite feel like randoms to local audiences. Doubtless this programming would have been in concert with Racing Victoria's own International Operations section and based upon their foreign raider hit-list. There might be some leads for those who like to trade in futures markets.

Upcoming international meetings that will be shown on Channel Ten are:

Group I Coral Eclipse meeting (July 6)
Group I July Cup meeting (July 13)
Gordon Stakes meeting at Goodwood (August 3)
Ebor Handicap meeting (August 24)
Group I Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes and Group I The Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (September 28)
ARC meeting (Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe) - (7 Group I's) (October 6)
British Champions day meeting (October 19)

walkermac

8th July 2019, 01:43 AM

Interestingly, the horse he beat in that Stakes race - Falcon Eight (who Racing Victoria's GM of International Operations revealed today is on their Melbourne Cup wishlist) - is listed at $26 now on Sportsbet for the Melbourne Cup. Falcon Eight is still at $26 (up to $31 at Ladbroke's) despite his win this weekend in The Escher Stakes (3264m). His trainer Dermot Weld said after the run:

"That was only the fifth race of his life. I look forward to training him for the next couple of years, that’s why I’m in no hurry this year. There is a big race in this horse.

"He has got a big future ahead of him, as he is just a work in progress. I think he will go all the way to a Group One in time. The Melbourne Cup would be under consideration, but whether this year comes too soon, we will see how he progresses in the autumn".

He was in a tight dual with Mekong, the pair putting 4 lengths on the rest of the field. Racing Victoria's handicapper Greg Carpenter was also impressed by his performance: "Another step taken by Falcon Eight on the road to the 2019 Melbourne Cup winning the Marathon Stakes over 2 miles @Sandown overnight for Dermot Weld and ridden by @FrankieDettori".

Also on the Sandown program - the first of Channel 10's international racing broadcasts leading towards The Melbourne Cup - was the Eclipse, a 2000m Group 1 race that saw the triumphant return of Enable. Joining her in the field was Zabeel Prince who Paul Bloodworth, Racing Victoria’s general manager of international operations, had previously name-dropped as a potential raider flying under the radar. Odd choice, as he came last in this field of eight and with a record that looks like he'll struggle to make any distance over 1800m.

Wells Farhh Go was another of Bloodworth's nominees and seems a likelier candidate, resuming this season in a Listed 2400m and winning by 4 lengths in late June.

At Sunday's Deutsches Derby in Hamburg, a Group 1 for 3yos over 2400m, the Australian-connected (Suman Hedge Bloodstock) horse Django Freeman came second. Apparently he'll soon be on his way to Robert Hickmott, following much the same path as Schabau took: who is 3 from 3 in his Australian runs since arriving this Summer. They're going to assess how best to time Django Freeman's journey with a view of setting him for a Spring target: both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups have been mentioned as possibilities. Today's race was his first over the distance and - per the radio call - he finished off strongly.

walkermac

16th July 2019, 12:27 AM

Entries for the Ebor Cup closed this past week. Among the 81 horses are Melbourne Cup possibles Prince of Arran, Falcon Eight, Gold Mount, Latrobe, Red Verdon, Thomas Hobson, Wells Farhh Go and Withhold. Max Dynamite is still kicking around in the entrants as a 9 year old! It's a handicap with weights to be released on July 24th, one month ahead of the race itself. The prizemoney has doubled this year up to the 1 million pound mark so will attract a very strong field. Current full entrants list here: https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/107/york/2019-08-24/734038

In qualifying races,there was the John Smith's Silver Cup Stakes this past weekend at York over the Ebor course/distance. Red Verdon (at $21) won the race in a tight finish against Gold Mount and Raheen House. Check out the finish here: https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1150039268741517312/vid/1280x720/39UxDNMcsVrRHI_E.mp4

Marmelo missed out by a nose on defending his crown in the Maurice De Nieuil Stakes, a Group 2 2800m at Longchamp. Way To Paris took the win, with the pair of them putting 4 lengths on 3rd. Marmelo's connections put in a protest, watch the race to see if it was warranted: https://youtu.be/JUYbtGgguiI

Later on the same program, Japan (the horse) was the winning $1.40 favourite in the Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris Stakes, a Group 1 2400m race for three year olds. Kew Gardens won this race last season. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8wa6QNpIts

walkermac

6th August 2019, 10:04 PM

I've been a little slack on the news front the past couple of weeks, but couldn't miss today's announcement of nominees for the Cox Plate: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-cox-plate-nominations.

187 horses have put their name forward; up from 135 last year.

Rostropovich, Youngstar, Ventura Storm, Ace High, Avilius and Red Cardinal were all 2018 Cox Plate nominees that went on to make the Melbourne Cup startlist.

Aidan O'Brien has nominated 11 horses, 8 of these are Northern Hemisphere 3 year olds (SH 4yo), including the exciting Japan. His son Joseph has 4, including Buckhurst, Latrobe and Master of Reality. Liam Howley's nominated Johannes Vermeer and Yucatan, among others.

From Japan they have Lys Gracieu and Meiner Fanrong coming. From France, Australian Bloodstock's Danceteria

Django Freeman will be coming over from Germany to Robert Hickmott, as expected.

Queensland Derby winner Mr Quickie is among the nominees, as is the Queensland Oaks winner Winning Ways, and All-Star Mile winner Mystic Journey.

Chris Waller unsurprisingly has the most nominees with 23, including: Finche, Verry Elleegant and Youngstar. Hayes & Dabernig have nominated 22.

Nominees for the Melbourne Cup should be released on August 29th. The race itself is only 90 days away.

walkermac

9th August 2019, 05:15 PM

2017 Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling has been retired to stud. He didn't race for 18 months following that victory, due to a tendon injury. His only subsequent race was the Australian Cup earlier this year in which he finished last.

Last year's winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy (who also won in 2000 and 2016) is getting a statue built in his honour in his hometown of Streaky Bay. This was announced during his visit as an ambassador for the Melbourne Cup tour. You can see all tour dates here: https://www.flemington.com.au/melbourne-cup-carnival/lexus-melbourne-cup-tour

French import Azuro won the Listed 3200m Queensland Cup at Eagle Farm. That performance hasn't moved the bookies much though: he's still $101 in futures. Probably overs on ability given some tight tussles with Steel Prince ($31) last year and an encouraging record over the Cup distance: 2 wins and 1 placing (0.2L) from his 3 runs. Steel Prince though, of course, won a ballot exemption through winning the Andrew Ramsden. Speaking of, rumours went wild as the payment of prizemoney for the race was delayed. The money was held up waiting on swab results, which led to speculation of an overturning of places. The runner-up Surprise Baby was reported to have been best backed with bookmakers in the preceding weeks. It wasn't until late July that the swabs - and Steel Prince - were given the all-clear.

Also late last month was the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 1 2400m at Ascot. Enable and Crystal Ocean fought out a huge battle, with the pair and 3rd placegetter Waldgeist putting quite a margin on the rest of the field: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJyfXL3ICKg. No chance of seeing the first two here, but a couple of the also-rans from Aidan O'Brien have nominated for the Cox Plate: Anthony Van Dyck, Magic Wand and Hunting Horn.

The Goodwood Cup rounded out July's racing with Stradivarius completing his threepeat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APkb6wDmI5Y. Last year's Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter finished in 3rd position. No shame in that with the first three (Dee Ex Bee in 2nd) pulling well clear of the rest. After the race trainer Charlie Appleby declared that Cross Counter defending his 2018 Melbourne Cup was 'Plan A' and that they expected to be asked to carry 57 or 57.5kg.

Also at Goodwood was the Gordon Stakes for 3 year olds, which was won the previous year by Cross Counter in record time. This year's winner was Nayef Road in a tight finish: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXmbo3jw7bE. Not sure we'll see any of these runners in Melbourne later this year.

More Glorious Goodwood with the Queen's Plate Group 3 over 2400m. Desert Encounter took the win with Mirage Dancer a 2-length second. The latter is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who was with Fiorente ahead of her being sold to Gai Waterhouse (only about 2 months before her 2012 Melbourne Cup 2nd placing). It was reported in the past couple of days that Mirage Dancer has now been sold to Australian interests and will be trained by Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young. The plan is to run in the Caulfield Cup ahead of the Melbourne Cup; he's qualified for both. The Cox Plate nomination he holds is a just-in-case. Finishing last in the 5-horse field was Prince of Arran who was eased in the last furlong to finish 14 lengths behind.

Latrobe has won another race overseas, this time in the 2400m Group 3 Ballroan Stakes at Leopardstown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psBWyC_xCE8. Not a hugely impressive win for a $1.90 favourite.

Weights have been released for Europe's richest handicap, the Ebor Cup. Irish runners Communique and Salouen carry the two heaviest handicaps for the race on August 24th. 67 remain in the field. Among those also in the Melbourne Cup futures markets: Falcon Eight ($21), Latrobe ($21), A Prince of Arran ($26), Gold Mount ($26), Withhold ($34), Mustajeer ($51), Red Verdon ($51) and True Self ($51). The last three Ebor Cup winners have all made the Melbourne Cup final field: the best of these was 2016's second place finisher Heartbreak City.

Magic Circle won't be making a return trip for this year's Cup. Finishing 16th last year, his colourful owner Marwan Koukash was popular in the press with his promise that if he won he'd receive the trophy wearing nothing but a tie and thong.

walkermac

20th August 2019, 10:18 PM

This Saturday is the Ebor Handicap (Ebor being short for 'Eboracum', the Roman name for York). 4 of the last 5 winners have gone on to contest the Melbourne Cup. Recognising the links between the two events - and sweetening the £1mil prize - the Victoria Racing Club will pay for two all-expenses paid trips for Cup Week for winning connections.

The current favourite in the field (max of 22 runners) is King's Advice. He's a 5yo Frankel horse who's won 6 of his last 7 races - and 8 wins from his 10 total starts. Ahead of the 2011 Melbourne Cup his trainer Mark Johnston was quoted:

"The Melbourne Cup is not seen in Europe as it is in Australia," he says bluntly. "That's not my fault. It's just a fact. I would be lying if I said the Melbourne Cup has anywhere near the same kudos in Europe it has over here. It's a huge big prize and a huge challenge to take a horse from one side of the world to the other and win it. But it's not the biggest race in the world.

"It's not the most prestigious race. But it's certainly the most valuable. And this is my best chance to win it."

His runners that year were Fox Hunt and Jukebox Jury who went on to finish 7th and 20th respectively.

King's Advice is yet to qualify, given that he's yet to run outside of handicaps - but the top 3 finishers in the Ebor Cup will pass the first ballot clause.

Withhold is on the second line of betting. The one-time favourite for the 2018 Melbourne Cup had to be withdrawn from that race after bleeding in the Geelong Cup. He's run once since then, taking out the Marsh Cup in July, a 3300m handicap. "It’s a big decision to go [to Melbourne] again, but you’d think he’s the perfect type for it."

Raheen House is third favourite, announced today as being purchased by Australian Bloodstock. Raheen House holds some fame as once having beaten superstar mare Enable (back in April 2017 in Enable's second ever race). After the Ebor Handicap he'll come to Australia to contest both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

As will the other recent Australian Bloodstock purchase in the field, Mustajeer. Last week the Hunter-based syndicators were reported as believing that Mustajeer is their best Caulfield Cup chance and among their top three Melbourne Cup hopes.

Sydney Cup winner Shraaoh and Torcedor headline the company's Melbourne Cup hopes in the TAB market at $26. Murrell rated Mustajeer ($51) ahead of the Chris Waller-trained Shraaoh, but:

"If Torcedor shows up, none of them will get near him," he said. "He's by far the best, but he's an older horse and he's only just started his campaign, so his worry is, is he going to be fit enough?"

Last year Torcedor recorded an elevated temperature as he was about to enter quarantine, ruling him out of an Australian trip. His first race since then was earlier this month, finishing 10 lengths back in a Listed German 2800m. The plan is for one more German race in mid-September and then straight to the Melbourne Cup. They'd want to see something in his next run though, surely...

Ducking the Ebor will be Gold Mount. From his trainer Ian Williams: "It's a great shame we are going to miss the Sky Bet Ebor, but he was sent to me from Richard Gibson in Hong Kong with a view to getting him ready for the Melbourne Cup, and that's the challenge now. He's been given a nice weight, and he'll get out to Australia early, so he may run in the Caulfield Cup there first."

In other racing news, Marmelo continues his good form with a win in the Prix Kergolay: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8Gd3hkddl4. He won that race in 2017 before finishing 9th in that year's Melbourne Cup. He was, of course, 2nd place last year after being overtaken late by Cross Counter. The two of them now share $17 favouritism in this year's futures markets with Ladbrokes. Apparently this will be his last run before heading to Melbourne once more. Third place in the Kergolay was Maky, an OTI runner whom we may see down here some time as well.

Latrobe won another, this time the Group 3 2400m Ballyroan Stakes: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1159555247624413184.
"The main reason for coming here was that Lloyd and Nick Williams felt that it would be important to get a win under his belt this year and then we could make a plan for the second half of the year," Joseph O’Brien said.

"He has options all over the place. He could go to Australia, but he has options in America as well. There are places like Japan and there are big races here as well. I’m not sure where exactly he’s going to go yet."

It was subsequently reported that he'll next be contesting the Irish St Leger on September 15th, where he's also anticipated to meet Cross Counter.

Another Williams chance, Master of Reality, finished 3rd in the St Leger Trial Stakes: https://youtu.be/4ftKx9Ym-z0. It wasn't a surprise for a horse by an O'Brien to do well in the race: they comprised the whole field! Joseph O'Brien had 4 of the 6 runners while his father Aidan had the remainder. Dad won bragging rights with Southern France while Joseph filled the rest of the podium with OTI's Downdraft and Master of Reality. Downdraft was reported as needing to do well to increase his official handicap rating ahead of the release of Melbourne Cup weights next month.

walkermac

28th August 2019, 05:39 PM

Stradivarius has kept his winning run going in the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (3270m Group 2). A small field of 4 went around including Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight, who were among those at the top of Melbourne Cup futures ($26 and $31 respectively). Both runners have since been ruled out of The Cup after having bled following this race. Falcon Eight was left well adrift of the first three, who were all within 1.5L at the finish: though Stradivarius always looked comfortable as he defended his title from last year. Max Dynamite won this race in 2015 ahead of his 2nd placing in The Cup. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TFKXvv2WHE

Also at York was the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (2400m Group 2). None of the starters are currently in Melbourne Cup betting, though that may change tomorrow when the first Entry List is to be published. Logician and Constantinople cleared well out from the rest of the small field: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIZTohwNA-M. Logician is the favourite for the St Leger. It would be nice to see Constantinople here but his trainer Aidan O'Brien said: "We were very happy with Constantinople and we'll see how he comes out of it. He's a big cruiser and still a little bit weak and he'll be a better horse next year. Norway ran well and is another in the [St Leger] mix."

Enable destroyed the competition in the Yorkshire Oaks but there's no chance that we'd see her here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0AfBuaq8H0. Off to the Arc to try and be the first three-time winner.

The Ebor was the York race of most interest for Cup followers, with the handicap taken out by Australian Bloodstock-owned Mustajeer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEHQDVUEIrg. He's now an equal Melbourne Cup favourite with Cross Counter, Marmelo and Torcedor ($17 with Ladbrokes). Rounding out the top 3 - and also notching a qualifying run for the Cup - were Red Galileo (0.75L) and Desert Skyline (1.25L). Raheen House was the favourite but finish well back in 9th. One spot ahead was Prince of Arran, 3rd in last year's Melbourne Cup, but unloved here at $34. Max Dynamite, Withhold, Wells Farhh Go, King's Advice and Weekender were some names that had been bandied about but all fell well down the order. Race time was actually the 3rd fastest since 1986: 0.5s faster than Muntahaa last year and over 3s faster than Nakeeta the year before.

Ziyad won the Grand Prix de Deauville (2500m G2): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Oi5jyWPTdo. This was the race that Tiberian won in 2017 ahead of a Top 10 Melbourne Cup finish later the same year. This race was markedly faster and Tiberian - who was part of the field once more - finished well back this time around. This edition actually saw a race record, nearly a second quicker than the next fastest time recorded. The winner Ziyad had also beaten Marmelo earlier on in his prep and is ineligible for the Arc: "He is gelded and so we almost certainly need to be on our travels with him and there are some nice international targets that could come into calculations." Melbourne would be nice.... Soft Light (the only 3yo in the race) was 2nd and gaining, and Nagano Gold came in 3rd.

Marmelo's trainer has announced his plans: "I think the plan is to give him a couple of weeks off - then go out to Australia at the same time he did last year, and then go straight to the Melbourne Cup," Morrison said.

"It seemed to work well last year. That doesn't necessarily mean it will again, but the horse is in good form.

"We left him in the Irish St Leger as an option, but I don't think we will be going there unless there is a huge change of heart. If the race was in August then we might have gone there."

Confirmed Melbourne Cup starter Steel Prince starts his campaign this weekend in the Heatherlie Stakes. He's the $4.40 favourite for the 1700m race, well short of his best, but his ballot exemption means his trainer can choose his program to best peak on Cup day, not having to worry about placings along the way.

walkermac

29th August 2019, 02:15 PM

Entrants for the 2019 Melbourne Cup: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-melbourne-cup-nominations

Entrants for the 2019 Caulfield Cup: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-caulfield-cup-nominations

walkermac

3rd September 2019, 11:50 PM

Here are the weekend's results from Melbourne Cup nominees:

<table><tbody><tr><td>EXEMPLAR (IRE)</td><td>2nd of 7</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>2400m Good4 HCP $135,000</td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>3rd of 7</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>2400m Good4 HCP $135,000</td></tr> <tr><td>JINDA (NZ)</td><td>6th of 7</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>2400m Good4 HCP $135,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>1st of 12</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HEATHERLIE HCP Listed $140,500</td></tr> <tr><td>CAPTAIN COOK (GB)</td><td>2nd of 12</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HEATHERLIE HCP Listed $140,500</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>3rd of 12</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HEATHERLIE HCP Listed $140,500</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>4th of 12</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HEATHERLIE HCP Listed $140,500</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>6th of 12</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HEATHERLIE HCP Listed $140,500</td></tr> <tr><td>LORD FANDANGO (GER)</td><td>9th of 12</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HEATHERLIE HCP Listed $140,500</td></tr> <tr><td>AMBITIOUS (JPN)</td><td>10th of 12</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HEATHERLIE HCP Listed $140,500</td></tr> <tr><td>SELF SENSE</td><td>11th of 12</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HEATHERLIE HCP Listed $140,500</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>SO SI BON</td><td>2nd of 13</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 MEMSIE Group 1 $1,002,000</td></tr> <tr><td>HARTNELL (GB)</td><td>4th of 13</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 MEMSIE Group 1 $1,002,000</td></tr> <tr><td>OOHOOD</td><td>7th of 13</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 MEMSIE Group 1 $1,002,000</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>10th of 13</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 MEMSIE Group 1 $1,002,000</td></tr> <tr><td>MATERIAL MAN</td><td>13th of 13</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 MEMSIE Group 1 $1,002,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>2nd of 16</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 HCP $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td>NIGHT'S WATCH (NZ)</td><td>5th of 16</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 HCP $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>9th of 16</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 HCP $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>10th of 16</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 HCP $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td>GUNDOWN</td><td>13th of 16</td><td>CAUL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Good3 HCP $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>STIVERS (ARG)</td><td>5th of 6</td><td>CHES</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>2896m Good CHESTER STKS Listed $65,734</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>LOOKS LIKE ELVIS</td><td>1st of 10</td><td>E FM</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1815m Good3 CL6-SW $75,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>HEART OF GRACE (JPN)</td><td>14th of 15</td><td>RHIL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>2000m Heavy9 BM78 $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>CARZOFF (FR)</td><td>3rd of 10</td><td>RHIL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1900m Heavy9 PREMIERCUP Group 3 $161,000</td></tr> <tr><td>SWEET THOMAS (GER)</td><td>6th of 10</td><td>RHIL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1900m Heavy9 PREMIERCUP Group 3 $161,000</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>8th of 10</td><td>RHIL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1900m Heavy9 PREMIERCUP Group 3 $161,000</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>9th of 10</td><td>RHIL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1900m Heavy9 PREMIERCUP Group 3 $161,000</td></tr> <tr><td>MAWAANY MACHINE (IRE)</td><td>10th of 10</td><td>RHIL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1900m Heavy9 PREMIERCUP Group 3 $161,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>LADY CUVEE (NZ)</td><td>5th of 9</td><td>RHIL</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1500m Heavy9 F&M BM78 $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>VERNANME (NZ)</td><td>2nd of 9</td><td>RUAK</td><td>31-Aug-19</td><td>1400m Soft RATING 82 $28,596</td></tr></tbody></table>

Here are the horses that trialled on Tuesday (various tracks):
<table width="240" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:8777;width:180pt" width="240"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt;width:180pt" width="240" height="20">WREN'S DAY (USA)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">RE EDIT</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">BONDEIGER</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MR QUICKIE</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">SOUND (GER)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">VOW AND DECLARE</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">BIG DUKE (IRE)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">FAIRLIGHT (IRE)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">GOATHLAND (IRE)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">SAUNTER BOY (FR)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">ALIFEROUS</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">ANGEL OF HEAVEN</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">GRAND BOUQUET (NZ)</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

walkermac

4th September 2019, 11:50 AM

Melbourne Cup nominees racing over the next few days:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Wednesday</td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>Kensington - Race 5 - 3:45PM RIBCHESTER @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1550 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TAVISTOCK DANCER (NZ)</td><td>Ladbrokes Park Hillside - Race 3 - 2:10PM Blue Star Print Handicap (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TARWIN</td><td>Ladbrokes Park Hillside - Race 7 - 4:30PM Ladbrokes Park Handicap (1400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Friday</td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ALIFEROUS</td><td>Wyong - Race 6 - 3:55PM WINNING COMMERCIAL MONA LISA STAKES (1350 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CENTURY (IRE)</td><td>Wyong - Race 7 - 4:35PM 2019 CARLTON DRAUGHT WYONG GOLD CUP (2100 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE)</td><td>Wyong - Race 7 - 4:35PM 2019 CARLTON DRAUGHT WYONG GOLD CUP (2100 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>CON TE PARTIRO (USA)</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GIRL TUESDAY</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HARIPOUR (IRE)</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MAURUS (GB)</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SAMADOUBT</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>UNFORGOTTEN</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:50PM BOB INGHAM CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MANTASTIC (IRE)</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:30PM HARVEY NORMAN TRAMWAY STAKES (1400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>CARIF</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:10PM NEXON HANDICAP (1500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>RE EDIT</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:10PM NEXON HANDICAP (1500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:10PM NEXON HANDICAP (1500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)</td><td>The Valley - Race 3 - 1:40PM Powerflo Solutions Handicap (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>DURETTO (GB)</td><td>The Valley - Race 3 - 1:40PM Powerflo Solutions Handicap (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>KENTUCKY BREEZE</td><td>The Valley - Race 3 - 1:40PM Powerflo Solutions Handicap (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)</td><td>The Valley - Race 3 - 1:40PM Powerflo Solutions Handicap (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SYLPHEED</td><td>The Valley - Race 3 - 1:40PM Powerflo Solutions Handicap (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VENTURA STORM (IRE)</td><td>The Valley - Race 3 - 1:40PM Powerflo Solutions Handicap (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>BEAU BALMAIN (GER)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>BEST OF DAYS (GB)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>FIFTY STARS (IRE)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HARLEM (GB)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>KENEDNA</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MR MARATHON MAN (GB)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SIKANDARABAD (IRE)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TRAP FOR FOOLS</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>YULONG PRINCE (SAF)</td><td>The Valley - Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)</td><td>The Valley - Race 9 - 5:30PM Drummond Golf Handicap (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL (NZ)</td><td>The Valley - Race 9 - 5:30PM Drummond Golf Handicap (1600 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

7th September 2019, 10:04 PM

Local results from Melbourne Cup nominees:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Wednesday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>2nd of 9</td><td>KENS</td><td>4-Sep-19</td><td>1550m Good4 BM76 $50,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>TAVISTOCK DANCER (NZ)</td><td>8th of 15</td><td>SANH</td><td>4-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Good4 BM70 $50,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Friday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CENTURY (IRE)</td><td>14th of 16</td><td>WYNG</td><td>6-Sep-19</td><td>2100m Good4 WYONG CUP Listed $164,000</td></tr> <tr><td>SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE)</td><td>15th of 16</td><td>WYNG</td><td>6-Sep-19</td><td>2100m Good4 WYONG CUP Listed $164,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ALIFEROUS</td><td>14th of 15</td><td>WYNG</td><td>6-Sep-19</td><td>1350m Good4 MONA LISA Listed $141,700</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>KENTUCKY BREEZE</td><td>1st of 10</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good4 HCP $135,000</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)</td><td>3rd of 10</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good4 HCP $135,000</td></tr> <tr><td>DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)</td><td>4th of 10</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good4 HCP $135,000</td></tr> <tr><td>VENTURA STORM (IRE)</td><td>6th of 10</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good4 HCP $135,000</td></tr> <tr><td>DURETTO (GB)</td><td>9th of 10</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good4 HCP $135,000</td></tr> <tr><td>SYLPHEED</td><td>10th of 10</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good4 HCP $135,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>1st of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>BEST OF DAYS (GB)</td><td>3rd of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>4th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>5th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>SIKANDARABAD (IRE)</td><td>6th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>FIFTY STARS (IRE)</td><td>7th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>KENEDNA</td><td>8th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>YULONG PRINCE (SAF)</td><td>9th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>MR MARATHON MAN (GB)</td><td>10th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>TRAP FOR FOOLS</td><td>11th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>12th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>BEAU BALMAIN (GER)</td><td>13th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>14th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td>HARLEM (GB)</td><td>15th of 15</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 FEEHAN Group 2 $251,500</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL (NZ)</td><td>4th of 12</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 HCP $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td>TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)</td><td>5th of 12</td><td>M V</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 HCP $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>SAMADOUBT</td><td>1st of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>2nd of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>GIRL TUESDAY</td><td>3rd of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>HARIPOUR (IRE)</td><td>4th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>5th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>6th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>7th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>9th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>UNFORGOTTEN</td><td>10th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>MAURUS (GB)</td><td>11th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>12th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>13th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>14th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 CHELMSFORD Group 2 $252,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>2nd of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1500m Good4 BM94 $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td>RE EDIT</td><td>6th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1500m Good4 BM94 $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td>CARIF</td><td>11th of 14</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1500m Good4 BM94 $125,000</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MANTASTIC (IRE)</td><td>8th of 13</td><td>RAND</td><td>7-Sep-19</td><td>1400m Good4 TRAMWAY Group 2 $202,000</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

8th September 2019, 12:00 AM

A couple of foreign races of interest:

Later on tonight at Kempton Park it's the Sun Racing September Stakes, a Group 3 race over 2400m. In the field are Melbourne Cup nominees Mountain Hunter and Prince of Arran. Last year's Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution is the race favourite with Prince of Arran at $12 in the 12-strong field, and Mountain Hunter at $34.

Tomorrow night at Longchamp it's the Group 3 Prix Gladiateur, with Haky contesting the 3100m Group 3.

There was a bit of movement in Cup futures betting this week with Constantinople gaining a fair bit of interest. Both he and Cape of Good Hope were purchased by Lindsay Park clients and will now be trained by Hayes-Hayes-Dabernig.

"There’s a bit of hype about this horse (Constantinople) but I want to get my hands on him and see how he is, but I think he’s a false favourite," David Hayes, said.

"I bought Rostropovich for this year and these two I’ve bought, I hope they run well this year and the market says they will, but I’m more keen for the future.

"This is a bonus this year."

They're both expected to arrive in the first shipment of foreign horses. Interestingly David Hayes said their work at Werribee would be limited following all the injuries that occurred at the facility last season.

Much of the interest is on account of the similarities between Constantinople this year and Cross Counter the last: born within a week of each other a year apart, their respective Cup preps are very similar. Cross Counter went into the Melbourne Cup without a warm-up with his last race the Voltigeur Stakes.

Cross Counter carried 57kg and finished a 0.2L 2nd in a race run on Good-Firm in 2'28.34s. Constantinople carried the same weight on a Good track, a 1.75L 2nd behind the St Leger Stakes favourite Logician - in 2'27.91s.

The race prior Cross Counter set a new record in the Gordon Stakes, carrying 57.5kg around in 2'31.39s. Constantinople carried 59kg and finished 2nd by 0.4L in 2'35.67s.

Cross Counter snuck in another race (a 2L victory in the Woodford Reserve Handicap) between the Gordon Stakes and the next one they have in common: the King George V Stakes. Here Constantinople came 2nd finishing 0.4L back in 2'32.74s on Good-Soft. Cross Counter didn't finish as highly (4th 2.75L) carrying 0.5kg less in a much quicker race: 2'28.36s - though it was on a track that was Good-Firm.

Constantinople: 8 starts for 2 wins and 5 placings.
Cross Counter (at the same time): 7 starts for 4 wins and 2 placings.

The benchmark handicap for horses of this age has also gone up 1kg this year.

walkermac

9th September 2019, 02:41 PM

A couple of foreign races of interest:
Sun Racing September Stakes, a Group 3 race over 2400m

I can't find a direct link, but you can watch the race on this page: https://www.racingtv.com/news/royal-reigns-with-september-success. It was a bunch finish with Prince of Arran across the line in 3rd (1.75L) and Mountain Hunter in 5th (2.25L). They both were ahead of last year's Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution (7th 2.75L) who was in his first race since 2018's Melbourne Cup. They all carried 59.5kg over the Synthetic surface.

Longchamp it's the Group 3 Prix Gladiateur, with Haky contesting the 3100m Group 3.

Called To The Bar was the odds-on favourite and triumphed accordingly, winning by 2 lengths easing. OTI Racing's Melbourne Cup nominee Haky certainly gave them something to chase though, leading the field for much of the race and by a large margin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RH_ep9VXlPg. He still finished in 2nd place, a further 2 lengths in front of Boulevard.

According to OTI they anticipated him receiving 51.5kg though hope his strong showing here will bump up his handicap more - they reckon he'd need 53kg to be sure of making the field. The plan now is to have him on the first shipment of horses and look to qualify him locally (not to mention: deal with his poor first up record). Either the Herbert Power Stakes on October 12th or the Caulfield Cup on October 19th being the target.

His previous race, his first at Group level, was a third placing 3.75L behind Marmelo in the 3000m Prix de Kergolay. Each of them carried 59kg and you'd anticipate them having different handicaps for the Cup. No fear of him getting the distance either: he's had 4 starts at 3000m or more for 1 win and 3 placings. It looks like he'll push the race along at a very genuine tempo if he makes the final field.

Weights should be out tomorrow (per the Feature Race Conditions: Handicaps will be declared not later than TUESDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2019; so technically they could come out earlier, but not likely).

walkermac

10th September 2019, 12:59 PM

Weights are out for the 2019 Melbourne Cup: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-weights

Kew Gardens will be the topweight with 58kg - if he decides to contest the race, of course. If he doesn't, then weights will remain the same: rather than shift upwards as they have in some past runnings.

Cross Counter has been awarded 57.5kg, 6.5kg greater than he carried to victory in last year's race. Placegetters Marmelo and Prince of Arran will carry the same weight that they did in 2018.

Constantinople, this year's Cross Counter/Rekindling doppelganger was awarded 52.5kg. So it looks like Greg Carpenter hasn't done any further handicapping for these 3yo northern/4 yo southern types aside from the pre-announced 1kg bump in benchmark weights.

The ballot exemption-winning horse Steel Prince will carry 53.5kg.

A brief look shows a few that would be stoked with their handicap. Ispolini and Master of Reality both look well in.

The first Order of Entry will be out this Friday. I'm not sure why they can't release that immediately... Maybe that gives some people who make an effort to determine eligible prizemoney winnings a brief trading advantage in Futures markets.

First Acceptances are due by noon on October 1st.

walkermac

10th September 2019, 09:34 PM

I had a look at who seems to have a good handicap, given their official rating. Of course the official handicapper may be of the belief they won't run at that rating over the 3200m, hence the lighter than anticipated weight.

Note that I couldn't find an official rating for a few horses. They were either Japanese, German, still a Maiden, too new, yet to race, or undetermined:
BIZZWINKLE (NZ)
DJANGO FREEMAN (GER)
ENTENTE
JUST THINKIN'
LYS GRACIEUX (JPN)
MEINER WUNSCH (JPN)
MER DE GLACE (JPN)
ONCE WERE LOST (IRE)
RULE THE WORLD
STELLAR IMPACT (JPN)
TORCEDOR (IRE)
TRUE SELF (IRE)

For the others (which I think I've got right) see below. TLDR: Il Paradiso really shouldn't race again ahead of The Cup. Should be in the Top 24 when the Order of Entry comes out on Friday and has passed the first ballot clause. He was 1.35L behind Stradivarius in the 3270m Lonsdale Cup Stakes and more or less tied with Dee Ex Bee. Il Paradiso carried 7kg less than Stradivarius who would be on 59kg in The Cup.

<table><tbody><tr><td>HORSE</td><td></td><td>WEIGHT</td><td>RATING</td><td>WEIGHT ADVANTAGE</td></tr> <tr><td>IL PARADISO (USA)</td><td>H</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>115</td><td>3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>110</td><td>3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MOUNT EVEREST (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>110</td><td>3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>BUCKHURST (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>52kg</td><td>113</td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB)</td><td>H</td><td>52kg</td><td>113</td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUTH PACIFIC (GB)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>109</td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>113</td><td>2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>55.5kg</td><td>118</td><td>2</td></tr> <tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>55kg</td><td>115</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ISPOLINI (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>55kg</td><td>115</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>54kg</td><td>113</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>DESERT SKYLINE (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>53kg</td><td>111</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>53kg</td><td>111</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>110</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TECHNICIAN (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>52kg</td><td>109</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>56kg</td><td>116</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>H</td><td>55.5kg</td><td>115</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>55kg</td><td>114</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>GOLD MOUNT (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>54kg</td><td>112</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>RED VERDON (USA)</td><td>H</td><td>54kg</td><td>112</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>109</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>BARSANTI (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>52kg</td><td>108</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>52kg</td><td>108</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>POUNAMU</td><td>G</td><td>52kg</td><td>108</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>BIN BATTUTA (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>50.5kg</td><td>105</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MOUNTAIN HUNTER (USA)</td><td>G</td><td>50.5kg</td><td>105</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>NORWAY (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>104</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>WESTERN AUSTRALIA (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>104</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>KEW GARDENS (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>58kg</td><td>119</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>57.5kg</td><td>118</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CROSS COUNTER (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>57.5kg</td><td>118</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>55kg</td><td>113</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MORANDO (FR)</td><td>G</td><td>54.5kg</td><td>112</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>53.5kg</td><td>110</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MARMELO (GB)</td><td>H</td><td>56kg</td><td>114</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>55.5kg</td><td>113</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>LATROBE (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>55kg</td><td>112</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>54kg</td><td>110</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>53kg</td><td>108</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>NELSON (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>52kg</td><td>106</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>VENICE BEACH (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>51kg</td><td>104</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SELF SENSE</td><td>G</td><td>50.5kg</td><td>103</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>53.5kg</td><td>108</td><td>-1</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CENTURY (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>106</td><td>-1</td></tr> <tr><td>AMBITIOUS (JPN)</td><td>H</td><td>52kg</td><td>105</td><td>-1</td></tr> <tr><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE)</td><td>M</td><td>53.5kg</td><td>111</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>KENEDNA</td><td>M</td><td>53kg</td><td>110</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>TRAP FOR FOOLS</td><td>G</td><td>55kg</td><td>110</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>54kg</td><td>108</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>M</td><td>52kg</td><td>108</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>54kg</td><td>108</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>DURETTO (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>53.5kg</td><td>107</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>H</td><td>53.5kg</td><td>107</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>H</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>105</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>105</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>CROWN PROSECUTOR</td><td>H</td><td>52kg</td><td>104</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>YOGI (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>52kg</td><td>104</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>NIGHT'S WATCH (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>51.5kg</td><td>103</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>STIVERS (ARG)</td><td>H</td><td>51.5kg</td><td>103</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MIDTERM (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>51kg</td><td>102</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SWEET THOMAS (GER)</td><td>G</td><td>51kg</td><td>102</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>100</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>JOHANNES VERMEER (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>55kg</td><td>109</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>55kg</td><td>109</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>YUCATAN (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>54.5kg</td><td>108</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>M</td><td>52kg</td><td>107</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>G</td><td>53.5kg</td><td>106</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>53.5kg</td><td>106</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>G</td><td>53.5kg</td><td>106</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>53kg</td><td>105</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>YULONG PRINCE (SAF)</td><td>H</td><td>53kg</td><td>105</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>104</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>104</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>SIKANDARABAD (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>52kg</td><td>103</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>CALIBURN (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>99</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>G</td><td>56kg</td><td>110</td><td>-2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>M</td><td>52kg</td><td>106</td><td>-2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>103</td><td>-2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>HARIPOUR (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>52kg</td><td>102</td><td>-2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>IN A TWINKLING</td><td>G</td><td>51kg</td><td>100</td><td>-2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>LORD FANDANGO (GER)</td><td>G</td><td>51kg</td><td>100</td><td>-2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>EMINENCE (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>98</td><td>-2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>53kg</td><td>103</td><td>-3</td></tr> <tr><td>RUNAWAY</td><td>R</td><td>52kg</td><td>101</td><td>-3</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>G</td><td>50.5kg</td><td>98</td><td>-3</td></tr> <tr><td>BONDEIGER</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>97</td><td>-3</td></tr> <tr><td>SPANISH STEPS (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>97</td><td>-3</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>97</td><td>-3</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>M</td><td>51kg</td><td>102</td><td>-3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>G</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>101</td><td>-3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>CASCADIAN (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>51kg</td><td>98</td><td>-3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>WREN'S DAY (USA)</td><td>H</td><td>51kg</td><td>98</td><td>-3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>ZACADA (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>51kg</td><td>98</td><td>-3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>GIRL TUESDAY</td><td>M</td><td>50.5kg</td><td>100</td><td>-4</td></tr> <tr><td>DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>95</td><td>-4</td></tr> <tr><td>US ARMY RANGER (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>95</td><td>-4</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>94</td><td>-4.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SAUNTER BOY (FR)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>94</td><td>-4.5</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>51.5kg</td><td>96</td><td>-5</td></tr> <tr><td>BLUE BREEZE (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>51kg</td><td>95</td><td>-5</td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>93</td><td>-5</td></tr> <tr><td>HARRISON (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>93</td><td>-5</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>H</td><td>51.5kg</td><td>95</td><td>-5.5</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>91</td><td>-6</td></tr> <tr><td>BEAU BALMAIN (GER)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>90</td><td>-6.5</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>90</td><td>-6.5</td></tr> <tr><td>LOOKS LIKE ELVIS</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>90</td><td>-6.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>G</td><td>52.5kg</td><td>94</td><td>-7</td></tr> <tr><td>TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>89</td><td>-7</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>89</td><td>-7</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>88</td><td>-7.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>M</td><td>50kg</td><td>90</td><td>-8.5</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>G</td><td>50.5kg</td><td>87</td><td>-8.5</td></tr> <tr><td>TRANSACT</td><td>G</td><td>50.5kg</td><td>85</td><td>-9.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>84</td><td>-9.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MOSH MUSIC</td><td>M</td><td>50kg</td><td>87</td><td>-10</td></tr> <tr><td>GUNDOWN</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>83</td><td>-10</td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>83</td><td>-10</td></tr> <tr><td>ALIFEROUS</td><td>M</td><td>50kg</td><td>86</td><td>-10.5</td></tr> <tr><td>EXEMPLAR (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>82</td><td>-10.5</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>G</td><td>52kg</td><td>85</td><td>-11</td></tr> <tr><td>VERNANME (NZ)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>81</td><td>-11</td></tr> <tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>M</td><td>50kg</td><td>83</td><td>-12</td></tr> <tr><td>THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>77</td><td>-13</td></tr> <tr><td>RE EDIT</td><td>M</td><td>50kg</td><td>80</td><td>-13.5</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CANDIDATE (IRE)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>75</td><td>-14</td></tr> <tr><td>CARIF</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>73</td><td>-15</td></tr> <tr><td>BASS (JPN)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>72</td><td>-15.5</td></tr> <tr><td>FAIRLIGHT (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>72</td><td>-15.5</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF HEAVEN</td><td>M</td><td>50kg</td><td>75</td><td>-16</td></tr> <tr><td>ILWENDO (GER)</td><td>H</td><td>50kg</td><td>71</td><td>-16</td></tr> <tr><td>TARWIN</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>71</td><td>-16</td></tr> <tr><td>DABIYR (IRE)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>70</td><td>-16.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>69</td><td>-17</td></tr> <tr><td>SPANISH POINT (GB)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>69</td><td>-17</td></tr> <tr><td>HEART OF GRACE (JPN)</td><td>M</td><td>50kg</td><td>72</td><td>-17.5</td></tr> <tr><td>TAVISTOCK DANCER (NZ)</td><td>G</td><td>50kg</td><td>68</td><td>-17.5</td></tr> <tr><td>DIVANATION</td><td>M</td><td>50kg</td><td>69</td><td>-19</td></tr> <tr><td>LADY YOUNG</td><td>M</td><td>50kg</td><td>68</td><td>-19.5</td></tr> <tr><td>ECHO LAD</td><td>G</td><td>49kg</td><td>62</td><td>-19.5</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

11th September 2019, 12:50 PM

Melbourne Cup nominees racing locally over the next few days:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Thursday</td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>STELLAR IMPACT (JPN)</td><td>Hawkesbury - Race 6 - 3:20PM RICHMOND CLUB BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (2100 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>Flemington - Race 1 - 12:30PM Very Special Kids Pin and Win Plate (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>CALIBURN (IRE)</td><td>Flemington - Race 1 - 12:30PM Very Special Kids Pin and Win Plate (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)</td><td>Flemington - Race 1 - 12:30PM Very Special Kids Pin and Win Plate (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>EXEMPLAR (IRE)</td><td>Flemington - Race 1 - 12:30PM Very Special Kids Pin and Win Plate (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HARRISON (GB)</td><td>Flemington - Race 1 - 12:30PM Very Special Kids Pin and Win Plate (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)</td><td>Flemington - Race 1 - 12:30PM Very Special Kids Pin and Win Plate (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>TARWIN</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 2:15PM The Sofitel (1400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:10PM PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:10PM PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:10PM PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>NIGHT'S WATCH (NZ)</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:10PM PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:10PM PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:10PM PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:10PM PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>YUCATAN (IRE)</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:10PM PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>BIZZWINKLE (NZ)</td><td>Flemington - Race 9 - 5:25PM Vale Russell Cameron (1700 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>Flemington - Race 9 - 5:25PM Vale Russell Cameron (1700 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>Flemington - Race 9 - 5:25PM Vale Russell Cameron (1700 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>Flemington - Race 9 - 5:25PM Vale Russell Cameron (1700 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MIDTERM (GB)</td><td>Flemington - Race 9 - 5:25PM Vale Russell Cameron (1700 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MOSH MUSIC</td><td>Flemington - Race 9 - 5:25PM Vale Russell Cameron (1700 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SPANISH STEPS (IRE)</td><td>Flemington - Race 9 - 5:25PM Vale Russell Cameron (1700 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>Flemington - Race 9 - 5:25PM Vale Russell Cameron (1700 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>Flemington - Race 9 - 5:25PM Vale Russell Cameron (1700 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>HEART OF GRACE (JPN)</td><td>Rosehill Gardens - Race 2 - 12:50PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF HEAVEN</td><td>Rosehill Gardens - Race 3 - 1:25PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>DABIYR (IRE)</td><td>Rosehill Gardens - Race 4 - 2:00PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td></tr> <tr><td>JUST THINKIN'</td><td>Rosehill Gardens - Race 5 - 2:35PM DULCIFY STAKES (1500 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

These are the nominated horses who trialled on Monday and Tuesday:
AZURO (FR)
CASCADIAN (GB)
GREY LION (IRE)
HEART OF GRACE (JPN)
MUNTAHAA (IRE)
RULE THE WORLD
RUNAWAY
SWEET THOMAS (GER)

walkermac

12th September 2019, 12:28 PM

Long interview with handicapper Greg Carpenter regarding the weights for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups: https://audioboom.com/posts/7364736-greg-carpenter-racinginsider-11-9-2019

walkermac

12th September 2019, 11:07 PM

Hugely important weekend of overseas racing. Plenty of candidates are running across Europe and will determine whether they subsequently make the trip to Australia. Greg Carpenter will also be watching closely to ping them with penalties (in the interview linked above he particularly mentioned Il Paradiso as being difficult to handicap due to a lack of races).

The live nominations are causing a few problems with quarantine. It was reported today that Latrobe may be left out in the cold. Last year Lloyd Williams threatened not to bring him unless there was also space for his travel companion Master of Reality. This year he is one of the lower rated horses aiming for the second flight. Ratings of many of the horses may change due to this weekend's results though, just to throw more uncertainty into the mix.

Werribee's quarantine facility has space for 32 horses in the first shipment and just 8 in the second. Those on the first shipment (arriving September 28th and able to race from October 12th) have just gone into quarantine in the UK for 2 weeks. As can be seen in the races below, there are far more nominated horses vying in races this weekend than can fit in those 8 remaining spaces.

The second shipment go into quarantine in the UK on September 26th, arriving October 12th and able to race from October 26th (Cox Plate Day).

Victorian Racing Officials are hanging on Aidan O'Brien determining which of the runners he's nominated he actually brings. There's even a possibility of a third flight being chartered to Sydney with horses being quarantined at Canterbury racecourse, able to race just 3 days before the Cup.

Friday

3600m Magners Rose Doncaster Cup Stakes
(Group 2) (British Champions Series) (3yo+) @ Doncaster
Barsanti @ $26 is up against Stradivarius, Dee Ex Bee and Max Dynamite. Interesting that Dee Ex Bee couldn't nominate for the Melbourne Cup after bleeding in his last run but he's allowed to race again in the UK straight away...

Saturday

2920m William Hill St Leger Stakes
(Group 1) (British Champions Series) (3yo) @ Doncaster
Il Paradiso @ $7 is third favourite behind Logician and Sir Dragonet. Also in the field are fellow Cup nominees Technician @ $15, Dashing Willoughby @ $17, and Western Australia @ $51.

2400m Paddy Power Betting Shop Stakes
(Group 3) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown
Stivers, Buckhurst, Mount Everest, and Norway are all in the running

2000m QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes
(Group 1) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown
Hunting Horn and Magic Wand are nominated in this non-qualifying race

2600m Irish Stallion Farms EBF "Petingo" Handicap
(Premier Handicap) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown
Eminence is in this non-qualifying race

Sunday

2400m 135th Deutsches St Leger
(Group 3) (3yo+) (Turf) @ Dortmund
Ispolini is the only Cup contender who nominated for this race but is also in the field for the Irish St. Leger. You'd think he'd go there...

2400m Comer Group International Irish St. Leger
(Group 1) (3yo+) @ Curragh
Kew Gardens @ $3.25, Cross Counter @ $4.30, Southern France @ $6.50, Master of Reality @ $9, Latrobe $9, Ispolini @ $13, Twilight Payment @ $13, Western Australia @ $51

There very well may be even more runners in action. I just looked for qualifying races (2400m and above at Group level) and when a couple were scratched I checked what they were up to.

walkermac

12th September 2019, 11:31 PM

Finally, for today: the first Order of Entry for the Melbourne Cup has been released. Subsequent lists will come out each Monday. Last year you'd find them on this page: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/the-sport/racing/victorian-race-program/spring-feature-conditions, but it might be a matter of just keeping an eye on Racing Victoria's twitter: https://twitter.com/racinginsider

Order of Entry: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-september-12

Of the horses I posted on Tuesday that were weighted less than their official handicap indicated they should be:
<table><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Order</td><td>Advantage</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>9</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)</td><td>11</td><td>2kg</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>12</td><td>1kg</td></tr> <tr><td>IL PARADISO (USA)</td><td>13</td><td>3.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>16</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>ISPOLINI (GB)</td><td>20</td><td>1kg</td></tr> <tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>22</td><td>1kg</td></tr> <tr><td>DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB)</td><td>24</td><td>3kg</td></tr> <tr><td>TECHNICIAN (IRE)</td><td>26</td><td>1kg</td></tr> <tr><td>RED VERDON (USA)</td><td>33</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)</td><td>34</td><td>1kg</td></tr> <tr><td>GOLD MOUNT (GB)</td><td>35</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>DESERT SKYLINE (IRE)</td><td>50</td><td>1kg</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>55</td><td>1kg</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>56</td><td>2.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>71</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>BARSANTI (IRE)</td><td>72</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>NORWAY (IRE)</td><td>74</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>BIN BATTUTA (GB)</td><td>85</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>WESTERN AUSTRALIA (IRE)</td><td>89</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>3.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>MOUNT EVEREST (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>3.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>BUCKHURST (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>3kg</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUTH PACIFIC (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>3kg</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>MOUNTAIN HUNTER (USA)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>POUNAMU</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr> <tr><td>RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>0.5kg</td></tr></tbody></table>
YTPFBC = yet to pass first ballot clause

So Il Paradiso and Dashing Willoughby look to have conditions that are pretty favourable if they were to come.

Nakeeta at #48 last year looks to have been the lowest in the initial Order of Entry to get into the race without subsequently picking up a penalty or winning a ballot exemption. Avilius (Bart Cummings winner), Yucatan (+2.5kg Herbert Power), Runaway (+1.5kg Geelong Cup), and Prince of Arran (Lexus Stakes winner) were all initially lower but won their way into the final field.

walkermac

13th September 2019, 07:38 PM

Eighteen horses have gone into 2 weeks of quarantine in the UK prior to departing for Australia (arriving on September 28th). Thirteen of those are nominated for the Melbourne Cup:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Order of Entry</td></tr> <tr><td>Mirage Dancer</td><td>9th</td></tr> <tr><td>Constantinople</td><td>12th</td></tr> <tr><td>Mustajeer</td><td>16th</td></tr> <tr><td>Red Verdon</td><td>33rd</td></tr> <tr><td>Raymond Tusk</td><td>34th</td></tr> <tr><td>Gold Mount</td><td>35th</td></tr> <tr><td>Torcedor</td><td>42nd</td></tr> <tr><td>Prince of Arran</td><td>48th</td></tr> <tr><td>True Self</td><td>53rd</td></tr> <tr><td>Raheen House</td><td>55th</td></tr> <tr><td>Haky</td><td>71st</td></tr> <tr><td>Red Galileo</td><td>56th</td></tr> <tr><td>Cape Of Good Hope</td><td>YTPFBC</td></tr></tbody></table>

Already in quarantine and arriving on September 24th from Japan is:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Order of Entry</td></tr> <tr><td>Meiner Wunsch</td><td>YTPFBC</td></tr></tbody></table>

Also from Japan and going into quarantine after this weekend (arriving October 1st) are:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Order of Entry</td></tr> <tr><td>Lys Gracieux</td><td>2nd</td></tr> <tr><td>Mer De Glace</td><td>YTPFBC</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

16th September 2019, 11:14 AM

Local results for Melbourne Cup nominees:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Thursday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>STELLAR IMPACT (JPN)</td><td>1st of 10</td><td>-4.34L</td><td>HAWK</td><td>12-Sep-19</td><td>2100m Good3 BM64 $35,000</td><td>@$2.25</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>1st of 9</td><td>-0.1L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>2500m Good4 Qlty $135,000</td><td>@$9.5</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)</td><td>4th of 9</td><td>0.5L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>2500m Good4 Qlty $135,000</td><td>@$3</td></tr> <tr><td>TE AKAU CALIBURN (IRE)</td><td>5th of 9</td><td>0.8L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>2500m Good4 Qlty $135,000</td><td>@$5.5</td></tr> <tr><td>HARRISON (GB)</td><td>7th of 9</td><td>3.05L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>2500m Good4 Qlty $135,000</td><td>@$7.5</td></tr> <tr><td>EXEMPLAR (IRE)</td><td>8th of 9</td><td>4.05L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>2500m Good4 Qlty $135,000</td><td>@$7.5</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MOSH MUSIC</td><td>1st of 16</td><td>-0.75L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HCP $125,000</td><td>@$12</td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>4th of 16</td><td>1.05L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HCP $125,000</td><td>@$10</td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>5th of 16</td><td>1.15L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HCP $125,000</td><td>@$41</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>7th of 16</td><td>2.8L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HCP $125,000</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>9th of 16</td><td>4.1L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HCP $125,000</td><td>@$8.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SPANISH STEPS (IRE)</td><td>10th of 16</td><td>4.3L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HCP $125,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>BIZZWINKLE (NZ)</td><td>11th of 16</td><td>4.8L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HCP $125,000</td><td>@$101</td></tr> <tr><td>MIDTERM (GB)</td><td>13th of 16</td><td>5.9L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1700m Good3 HCP $125,000</td><td>@$81</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>3rd of 15</td><td>1.5L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good3 MAKYBE DIVA Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>7th of 15</td><td>3.05L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good3 MAKYBE DIVA Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>8th of 15</td><td>3.25L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good3 MAKYBE DIVA Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$13</td></tr> <tr><td>NIGHT'S WATCH (NZ)</td><td>9th of 15</td><td>3.45L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good3 MAKYBE DIVA Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$71</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>10th of 15</td><td>6.2L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good3 MAKYBE DIVA Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>YUCATAN (IRE)</td><td>12th of 15</td><td>6.5L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good3 MAKYBE DIVA Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$17</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>14th of 15</td><td>7.6L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good3 MAKYBE DIVA Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$201</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>15th of 15</td><td>7.7L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good3 MAKYBE DIVA Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$41</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>TARWIN</td><td>9th of 14</td><td>3.2L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1400m Good3 TONTONAN Listed $141,200</td><td>@$8</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>DABIYR (IRE)</td><td>2nd of 12</td><td>1.3L</td><td>RHIL</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>2400m Good4 BM78 $125,000</td><td>@$2.1</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>JUST THINKIN'</td><td>1st of 13</td><td>-0.4L</td><td>RHIL</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1500m Good4 DULCIFY Listed $150,000</td><td>@$9.5</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF HEAVEN</td><td>3rd of 11</td><td>4.5L</td><td>RHIL</td><td>14-Sep-19</td><td>1500m Good4 BM78 $125,000</td><td>@$11</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Sunday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>SPANISH POINT (GB)</td><td>1st of 12</td><td>-0.75L</td><td>GEEL</td><td>15-Sep-19</td><td>2424m Soft5 BM78 $35,000</td><td>@$2.9</td></tr> <tr><td>BASS (JPN)</td><td>2nd of 12</td><td>0.75L</td><td>GEEL</td><td>15-Sep-19</td><td>2424m Soft5 BM78 $35,000</td><td>@$2.7</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

16th September 2019, 02:58 PM

Results from overseas nominees:

3600m Magners Rose Doncaster Cup Stakes
(Group 2) (British Champions Series) (3yo+) @ Doncaster

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drBjsssBgkU

Stradivarius unsurprisingly won this race, jumping at $1.10 following the withdrawal of Dee Ex Bee due to the firm track. Cup nominee Barasanti at $11 was actually second favourite in what became a slowly run race due to small field of five. Finishing in 3rd was two-time Melbourne Cup placegetter, Max Dynamite. Barsanti ran towards the rear, looked to get the distance easily, but struggled to close ground on the three ahead of him. He crossed the line 6.75L behind Stradivarius, carrying 2kg less. Consequently it wasn't a terrible run, given their respective ratings and how the race was not run to suit a backmarker. I'm not sure he showed enough to warrant the journey here - forgetting for the moment that his rating would mean he was in doubt of fitting into Werribee in any case...

2920m William Hill St Leger Stakes
(Group 1) (British Champions Series) (3yo) @ Doncaster

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAy70lZxwvk

Another odds-on favourite took out this race with the undefeated Logician a very impressive $1.80 winner. Four Melbourne Cup nominees featured here - with them finishing in the final four positions in the 8-horse field.

Western Australia, the $51 outsider, was sacrificed as pace maker for Aidan O'Brien's runners, hoping to shake the race up. The early speed helped Logician break the track record, now set at 3'00.27s, edging out Masked Marvel's 2011 performance (which in turn broke an 85 year-old mark). In that 2011 race the placegetters were Brown Panther and Sea Moon who would go on to place 8th and 13th in the 2013 Melbourne Cup respectively.

Going into the race Logician had a 115 rating. This was only his fifth start and his first at Group 1 level. It'll be hard to judge the performance of the other runners until his official handicap is updated. I wouldn't be surprised if he went up to 118+.

Of the Melbourne Cup nominees, Il Paradiso finished highest in 5th position, 5.25L adrift of the winner. He was also rated at 115 - the same as Logician - more or less solely due to his last race over 3270m where he was just 1.35L behind Stradivarius. He was looking great in this race at one point, taking the lead in the straight when his jockey pushed the button. Ultimately it looked like this move came far too early, with him weakening with plenty to go. It looked like he expected more fuel to be in the tank, so I'm not sure if Il Paradiso had a bad day, was impacted by leading the bunch that was tracking Western Australia or - optimistically thinking - he was run to not gain Greg Carpenter's attention. Ultimately he finished 3-4 lengths further back than one would have hoped, but he gets something like 7 lengths back in The Cup due to his favourable handicap.

2400m Paddy Power Betting Shop Stakes
(Group 3) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown

I couldn't find any vision so here's a blurb from Coolmore regarding Norway (1st), Buckhurst (2nd 1.25L) and Mount Everest (4th 1.75L):

Coolmore Stud sires dominated Saturday’s Group 3 Paddy Power Betting Shop Stakes at Leopardstown, which saw Norway land the spoils under Seamie Heffernan for Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore partners.

Group 2 placed last time out and third in the Irish Derby earlier in the season, Norway was sent off joint-favourite with Buckhurst (Australia), who had won his last two starts at Group 3 level. Racing towards the back of the field for much of the mile and a half contest, he was asked to quicken from two furlongs out and progressed to take second entering the final furlong. Staying on strongly, he led 100 yards from the line and won by a length and a quarter, as Buckhurst ran on to beat Blenheim Palace (Galileo) for second.

Norway may now go globetrotting, according to his trainer, who said, “He's a horse that is probably going to get better, he's going to be better next year. He's a lovely horse to have, fast ground, a mile-and-a-half and he can travel and quicken. There are going to be a lot of places to suit him. He could travel a little bit at the end. He could go to Hong Kong or America.” Seemingly no talk of the Melbourne Cup for any of them. The other nominee in the field, Stivers, was a long last.

2000m QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes
(Group 1) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqdcNvXb1po

Magic Wand and Hunting Horn contested this race which won't effect their current ranking or attract any penalties: a good thing too as they're currently at #21 and #22 in the Order. Hunting Horn was the sacrificial pacemaker and finished as badly as his $67 odds would suggest. Magic Wand's $21 price didn't suggest he would be at the pointy end but he finished in the front of a bunch that was chasing winner Magical, 2.25L ahead.

This was a really good run. Magical has been running at a consistent 122 rating, chasing Enable for much of the past year. Magic Wand has a 111 rating and ran admirably here at equal weights.

After the race her trainer Aidan O'Brien was looking abroad: "She can do the likes of Hong Kong and all those places. She loves fast ground and anywhere from a mile to a mile and a half. She's very versatile." That doesn't sound very encouraging for a Cup tilt, but earlier this month he also said: "She’s in the Cox Plate, the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup. I always thought 1m4f was far enough over here in Group 1s but, it’s funny, that type of race can often suit that type of horse. Flemington is a very flat track and you need a horse who is tactically quick enough. It’s a daft thing but it might just suit her".

2600m Irish Stallion Farms EBF "Petingo" Handicap
(Premier Handicap) (3yo+) @ Leopardstown

Eminence was second favourite in the 17-horse field, starting at $6 and finishing in 8th position and 4 lengths back in this non-qualifying race. Can't find vision but the race notes say: "Chased leaders, 3rd 5f out, ridden 2f out but no extra under pressure from over 1f out and gradually weakened".

2400m 135th Deutsches St Leger
(Group 3) (3yo+) (Turf) @ Dortmund

https://youtu.be/3LDDt8xDqoQ

Ispolini is back on track after a poor run in his last, the Yorkshire Cup against Stradivarius and Southern France. He was towards the top of Melbourne Cup futures betting for a fair while on account of his 2nd to Cross Counter in the Dubai Gold Cup earlier this year.

He was the odds-on favourite in the 13-strong Deutsches St Leger, winning in a very tight finish. He was 20th in the Order of Entry last week and his trainer Charlie Appleby appears buoyed by his run here: "Ispolini probably got to the front a bit too soon but he has stuck to his guns well. It was a pleasing performance and he has hopefully now booked his ticket to Australia for the Melbourne Cup."

2400m Comer Group International Irish St. Leger
(Group 1) (3yo+) @ Curragh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA

Starting odds: Cross Counter @ $2.50, Kew Gardens @ $4.50, Southern France @ $10, Master of Reality @ $15, Latrobe $8, Twilight Payment @ $15

The winner was Search For A Song in only her 5th race. She was also weighed 5kg lighter than every other runner. When she took the lead and put on a couple of lengths at the mile marker she just couldn't be run down. Some strong rain before and during the race but it doesn't appear to have largely effected the surface: it was rated Good-to-Firm for this contest and only downgraded to Good in the next (it dried out and was back to a Good-to-Firm by the last race).

Kew Gardens ran on for a 2.25L 2nd with the remaining Cup nominees finishing in the next few positions. Southern France, Cross Counter and Master of Reality all finished within 0.25L of each other (1.5 lengths behind Kew Gardens). Latrobe and Twilight Payment were within a further couple of lengths.

There seems little hope of Kew Gardens travelling. According to Lloyd Williams there was very little between the other five candidates in the field though: "They finished within two [and a half] lengths of each other, and there is nothing between them in the future. The rides [they got] and the conditions [were] the difference," he said. "Southern France [was] a very good run, a positive [for his Cup chances]. Master of Reality did most of the work [in front] and was a good run. Twilight Payment needed the run and has changed stables. He hadn't started since June." "Latrobe was disappointing to the eye but not the jockey. Improvement is possible."

Cross Counter didn't show the blazing finishing speed that attracted me to him last year. He's older and higher in the weights now. He'll certainly need a different change of tactics than those he used in last year's race... On the positive side he was 3-wide for a fair hunk of the race, which wouldn't have helped.

walkermac

18th September 2019, 12:48 PM

2920m William Hill St Leger Stakes
(Group 1) (British Champions Series) (3yo) @ Doncaster

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAy70lZxwvk

Going into the race Logician had a 115 rating. This was only his fifth start and his first at Group 1 level. It'll be hard to judge the performance of the other runners until his official handicap is updated. I wouldn't be surprised if he went up to 118+.Logician got re-rated to 117 following this race. Per Greg Carpenter himself, 0.5kg is equivalent to 1 length over 3200m: near enough to this race distance. So at equal weights Il Paradiso (rated at 115 pounds) would be expected to finish 2 lengths adrift, instead of the 5.25L he actually did. His run reminded me of Marmelo's Melbourne Cup performance in 2017 and we saw last year what the difference was when they timed that horse's prep right. There was 3 weeks between the St Leger Stakes and Il Paradiso's prior race, the 3200m Lonsdale Cup. Perhaps the back-up was too soon for this 3yo.

There's an interesting blog post from the British Handicapping Authority's Matthew Tester regarding the re-rating of Logician and the strength of this race: https://www.britishhorseracing.com/william-hill-st-leger-festival/. (https://www.britishhorseracing.com/william-hill-st-leger-festival/) He also suggests that Logicians performance could have been as high as a 120, or that he ran as high as a 117 in spite of the conditions and race distance not being his preferred.

Per the Race Conditions there's meant to be an updated Order of Entry sent out each Monday. That doesn't seem to have happened.

Melbourne Cup nominees racing locally over the next few days:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Wednesday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ENTENTE</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Warwick Farm - Race 1 - 1:25PM ATC MEMBER TOURS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>FAIRLIGHT (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Warwick Farm - Race 3 - 2:35PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (2200 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Warwick Farm - Race 6 - 4:20PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Thursday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ONCE WERE LOST (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Northam - Race 6 - 4:45PM 6PR KIDS DAY OUT SEPT 30 MAIDEN (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Friday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>WREN'S DAY (USA)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Newcastle - Race 5 - 3:25PM AUSTRALIAN BLOODSTOCK CAMERON HANDICAP (1500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>85</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>41</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>88</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CANDIDATE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CENTURY (IRE)</td><td>64</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SAUNTER BOY (FR)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>58</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SWEET THOMAS (GER)</td><td>82</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Newcastle - Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>76</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>84</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>59</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>LORD FANDANGO (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>44</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SELF SENSE</td><td>83</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SIKANDARABAD (IRE)</td><td>69</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:35PM East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>LOOKS LIKE ELVIS</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Eagle Farm - Race 8 - 4:07PM MAKERS MARK OPEN Handicap (1835 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>30</td><td>Morphettville - Race 5 - 3:16PM Tokyo City Cup (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>89</td><td>Morphettville - Race 5 - 3:16PM Tokyo City Cup (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ALIFEROUS</td><td>71</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 3 - 1:30PM SHOOT OUT MILE (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>RE EDIT</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 3 - 1:30PM SHOOT OUT MILE (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>CASCADIAN (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 5 - 2:40PM BILL RITCHIE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>15</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:55PM COLGATE OPTIC WHITE STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>5</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:55PM COLGATE OPTIC WHITE STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>20</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:55PM COLGATE OPTIC WHITE STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>42</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 3:55PM COLGATE OPTIC WHITE STAKES (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>CARIF</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>32</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GIRL TUESDAY</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>63</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HARIPOUR (IRE)</td><td>70</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>50</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>52</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>38</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

The following Cup nominees trialled yesterday:
BLUE BREEZE (NZ)
BONDEIGER
DIVANATION
LADY YOUNG
SUPERNOVA (GB)
WALL OF FIRE (IRE)

walkermac

20th September 2019, 12:29 PM

The nominees are getting whittled away:

Django Freeman - out for the spring with bone chips (was 10th in the Order of Entry)

Meiner Wunsch - isn't coming from Japan after reviewing where they sat in the Order of Entry (yet to pass the first ballot clause and would be in the 60s unless they picked up a penalty).

In addition to the nominees racing this weekend listed in the previous post, on Sunday there's also:

<table><tbody><tr><td>GUNDOWN
</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Sportsbet-Ballarat - Race 6 - 4:20PM Mortimer Petroleum Gold Nugget (1600 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

23rd September 2019, 02:10 AM

Results from the past few days:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Wednesday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>FAIRLIGHT (IRE)</td><td>110=</td><td>4th of 6</td><td>6.5L</td><td>W FM</td><td>18-Sep-19</td><td>2200m Heavy10 BM72 $50,000 (https://mediarnsws.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190918WAFR04_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569167509~acl=/*~hmac=ac6d313a34ce77907e5db6751e8d460192e4c80e1e172dad62519c7a9c04ad32)</td><td>@$4.4</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ENTENTE</td><td>110=</td><td>6th of 7</td><td>7.1L</td><td>W FM</td><td>18-Sep-19</td><td>1400m Heavy10 3Y MDN $50,000 (https://mediarnsws.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190918WAFR01_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569167563~acl=/*~hmac=41672d25b9d3a22a2693d6299222c11386a71d55ef33b2f0e9380dd5bd54175c)</td><td>@$3.2</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Thursday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ONCE WERE LOST (IRE)</td><td>110=</td><td>11th of 13</td><td>6.89L</td><td>NTHM</td><td>19-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Good4 Mdn $20,000 (https://cris.rwwa.com.au/JwPlayer.aspx?jw=JnJlcGxheVVybD1odHRwOi8vbWVkaWFyd3dhLnNreXJhY2luZy5jb20uYXUvUmFjZV9SZXBsYXkvMjAxOS8wOS8yMDE5MDkxOU5PVFIwNl9WLm1wNCZ2ZW51ZT1Ob3J0aGFtJnJhY2VEYXRlPTIwMTktMDktMTkmcmFjZU51bT02)</td><td>@$5.5</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Friday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>87</td><td>1st of 15</td><td>-0.65L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>2300m Good4 NCLE CUP Group 3 $204,900 (https://mediarnsws.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190920NEWR07_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569167709~acl=/*~hmac=64a73402f543295d3fa4bcac03237b2339c1726b543067843cf69bfddabf19f0)</td><td>@$5</td></tr> <tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>93</td><td>2nd of 15</td><td>0.65L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>2300m Good4 NCLE CUP Group 3 $204,900</td><td>@$13</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CANDIDATE (IRE)</td><td>94</td><td>3rd of 15</td><td>0.67L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>2300m Good4 NCLE CUP Group 3 $204,900</td><td>@$2.9</td></tr> <tr><td>RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td><td>100</td><td>5th of 15</td><td>3.89L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>2300m Good4 NCLE CUP Group 3 $204,900</td><td>@$9</td></tr> <tr><td>THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)</td><td>110=</td><td>6th of 15</td><td>4.09L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>2300m Good4 NCLE CUP Group 3 $204,900</td><td>@$7</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CENTURY (IRE)</td><td>63</td><td>7th of 15</td><td>4.96L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>2300m Good4 NCLE CUP Group 3 $204,900</td><td>@$19</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>84</td><td>11th of 15</td><td>6.15L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>2300m Good4 NCLE CUP Group 3 $204,900</td><td>@$19</td></tr> <tr><td>SAUNTER BOY (FR)</td><td>110=</td><td>13th of 15</td><td>11.66L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>2300m Good4 NCLE CUP Group 3 $204,900</td><td>@$81</td></tr> <tr><td>SWEET THOMAS (GER)</td><td>81</td><td>15th of 15</td><td>12.14L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>2300m Good4 NCLE CUP Group 3 $204,900</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>WREN'S DAY (USA)</td><td>105=</td><td>5th of 15</td><td>2.9L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>20-Sep-19</td><td>1500m Soft5 CAMERON Group 3 $161,400 (https://mediarnsws.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190920NEWR05_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569167735~acl=/*~hmac=1f0aa01521d37ce965c025eb4ce7430556b10191b1748054993eecb5165214bb)</td><td>@$6</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>75</td><td>1st of 11</td><td>-1.25L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 NATURALISM Group 3 $160,750 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1175284726598254593)</td><td>@$21</td></tr> <tr><td>SIKANDARABAD (IRE)</td><td>68</td><td>3rd of 11</td><td>3L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 NATURALISM Group 3 $160,750</td><td>@$3.9</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>58</td><td>4th of 11</td><td>3.75L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 NATURALISM Group 3 $160,750</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>110=</td><td>5th of 11</td><td>3.95L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 NATURALISM Group 3 $160,750</td><td>@$7.5</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1</td><td>6th of 11</td><td>4.05L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 NATURALISM Group 3 $160,750</td><td>@$7.5</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>43</td><td>7th of 11</td><td>4.35L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 NATURALISM Group 3 $160,750</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>110=</td><td>8th of 11</td><td>4.45L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 NATURALISM Group 3 $160,750</td><td>@$3.6</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>83</td><td>9th of 11</td><td>4.95L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 NATURALISM Group 3 $160,750</td><td>@$8.5</td></tr> <tr><td>LORD FANDANGO (GER)</td><td>105=</td><td>11th of 11</td><td>10.7L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 NATURALISM Group 3 $160,750</td><td>@$61</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>LOOKS LIKE ELVIS</td><td>110=</td><td>1st of 10</td><td>-1.3L</td><td>E FM</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1835m Good4 HCP $105,000 (https://mediarqs.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190921EAFR08_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569168281~acl=/*~hmac=efb7de3fc541689c02a84a051d7aedd22dab1942ec63fab34a46b399c8cd3afd)</td><td>@$2.4</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>88</td><td>7th of 8</td><td>5.8L</td><td>MORP</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Soft6 TOKYO CITY Listed $100,000 (http://d26j0amf97rmny.cloudfront.net/30072/2019-09-21_race5.mp4)</td><td>@$7</td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>29</td><td>8th of 8</td><td>6.8L</td><td>MORP</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Soft6 TOKYO CITY Listed $100,000</td><td>@$7</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>CARIF</td><td>110=</td><td>1st of 6</td><td>-0.23L</td><td>NCLE</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1850m Good4 CL1-SW $35,000 (https://mediarnsws.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190921NEWR01_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569168365~acl=/*~hmac=b69f2bfd0c3f192431a25a2d1162632a3247acca5580cd0cf58197dc68fded92)</td><td>@$1.1</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>31</td><td>1st of 16</td><td>-0.4L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000 (https://mediarnsws.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190921RANR08_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569168398~acl=/*~hmac=229fbd289f04912538abcdc357264180ca6a614d2e00352431d5a8643df304c7)</td><td>@$10</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>62</td><td>4th of 16</td><td>1.9L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$14</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>57</td><td>5th of 16</td><td>2.7L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$51</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>40</td><td>7th of 16</td><td>3.8L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$9.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>51</td><td>7th of 16</td><td>3.8L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$11</td></tr> <tr><td>HARIPOUR (IRE)</td><td>69</td><td>9th of 16</td><td>3.9L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$19</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>110=</td><td>10th of 16</td><td>4.7L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$3.9</td></tr> <tr><td>GIRL TUESDAY</td><td>101=</td><td>11th of 16</td><td>5.6L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$9</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>37</td><td>12th of 16</td><td>5.8L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$61</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>49</td><td>16th of 16</td><td>27.5L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 KING TOWN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$151</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>5</td><td>1st of 9</td><td>-2.3L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Soft6 GEO MAIN Group 1 $505,000 (https://mediarnsws.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190921RANR07_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569168425~acl=/*~hmac=9763760b4d331bea2555a2794e3ae25a930246ff52e34c45405f5dcd5864c8b8)</td><td>@$3.1</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>19</td><td>4th of 9</td><td>3.8L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Soft6 GEO MAIN Group 1 $505,000</td><td>@$7</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>14</td><td>5th of 9</td><td>3.9L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Soft6 GEO MAIN Group 1 $505,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>41</td><td>8th of 9</td><td>5.6L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Soft6 GEO MAIN Group 1 $505,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>110=</td><td>3rd of 13</td><td>0.9L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Soft7 BM88 $125,000 (https://mediarnsws.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190921RANR03_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569168702~acl=/*~hmac=bb2dd702772cd1b203468e42720c235a719fcd4661a0314ddec60eedfd126c10)</td><td>@$4.6</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ALIFEROUS</td><td>70</td><td>5th of 13</td><td>3.4L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Soft7 BM88 $125,000</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>RE EDIT</td><td>110=</td><td>9th of 13</td><td>7.1L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Soft7 BM88 $125,000</td><td>@$8.5</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>CASCADIAN (GB)</td><td>105=</td><td>4th of 10</td><td>2.8L</td><td>RAND</td><td>21-Sep-19</td><td>1400m Soft7 RITCHIE Group 3 $161,600 (https://mediarnsws.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/09/20190921RANR05_V.mp4?hdnts=exp=1569168722~acl=/*~hmac=0ec5b716ac8bb2e5ed35c4123b0c476c15b2400dec0b2938e4411ddc30302ea9)</td><td>@$4.2</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Sunday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>GUNDOWN</td><td>110=</td><td>4th of 7</td><td>2.7L</td><td>BRAT</td><td>22-Sep-19</td><td>1600m Soft7 GOLD NUGGET $50,000 (https://twitter.com/Racing/status/1175657112854323200)</td><td>@$10</td></tr></tbody></table>

UselessBettor

23rd September 2019, 06:56 AM

walkermac,

I'm looking forward to the Melbourne cup analysis again this year as it gets closer to the final field. This thread always has the best analysis I can find anywhere.

Thanks for all your hard work.

evajb001

23rd September 2019, 09:58 AM

Hey walkermac,

I second what UB has said. Whilst we may not often reply to this thread its usually because you have great information and there's nothing constructive I can really add. As the field get whittled down some more I may add some bits and pieces but so far I'm more than happy to take in the information as an onlooker.

Appreciate your efforts!

Lord Greystoke

23rd September 2019, 03:16 PM

walkermac

24th September 2019, 12:54 PM

Cheers, fellas :)

A new Order of Entry came out yesterday: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-september-23 (and was linked from Racing Victoria's Spring Feature Race Conditions page, so no need to stalk their Twitter: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/the-sport/racing/victorian-race-program/spring-feature-conditions).

Django Freedman is the only horse to have officially withdrawn so far, but more are on the way. Foremost of these is 2017 Cup placegetter Johannes Vermeer, who was also announced to be missing this Spring through injury.

There was a little movement in the Order:

Buckhurst has passed the first ballot clause and rockets to #26 following his placing in the Kilternan Stakes.

Attention Run and Our Candidate take up positions #93 and #94 respectively following their placings in the Newcastle Cup

Brimham Rocks didn't earn a penalty for his Naturalism Stakes win, though he did win ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup. This leaves him currently at 75th in the Order and unlikely to make the Melbourne Cup field unless he wins either the Bart Cummings (5th Oct - unlikely as he's nominated for the Metropolitan in Sydney on the same day), Caulfield Cup (19th Oct), or Lexus Stakes (2nd Nov).

Finche similarly didn't gain a penalty for his win in the Kingston Town Stakes: being only 2000m, it wasn't an eligible race.

No overseas runners gained a weight penalty either, which will buoy supporters of Il Paradiso, Ispolini and Magic Wand, among others. Horses of this ilk will have to enter quarantine on Thursday to make the second shipment of internationals. The first shipment is set to arrive this Saturday.

Among them will be Gold Mount who recently had to process a name change with Racing Australia. He was still registered under his old name Primitivo.

Caliburn is also now known as Te Akau Caliburn. His owners are confident that he'll be a strong candidate for the Cups next year but are having a throw at the stumps in 2019. He's anticipated to next run in the Bart Cummings for a ballot exemption.

In major scratching news: Taylor Swift. Initially announced as Melbourne Cup Day entertainment, she soon withdrew citing a scheduling conflict. There was certainly some conflict in social media where she was part of a targeted campaign from both her fans with concerns over racing and gambling, as well as by animal rights activists. Racing Victoria have said they will refund any ticket purchases made expressly to see Swift.

Sportsbet have a market for who will be announced as her replacement: the $3 favourite is Daryl Braithwaite with John Farnham ($4), Delta Goodrem ($5.50), Meat Loaf ($7), the winner of The Masked Singer Australia ($8.50) and Jimmy Barnes ($10) being the other frontrunners.

In other entertainment news: Ride Like A Girl, the story of Michelle Payne's career and her win in the 2015 Melbourne Cup with 100-1 shot Prince of Penzance, will open in cinemas Thursday.

If you do happen to go watch, check to see if your theatre is part of the My Cinema network (https://mycinema.com.au/locations-2/). They've a competition running where you can win $5000: https://fs2.formsite.com/MyCinema/ridelikeagirl/index.html

Raheen House will have an Australian run ahead of the Melbourne Cup, per his trainer William Haggas. Plan A is the Caulfield Cup but, if he weren't able to make the final field, the Geelong Cup 4 days later is the backup. Raheen House was the $6 favourite in the Ebor Cup but could only manage a 9th placing 7L adrift of Mustajeer. Haggas says that he was lacking early pace which saw him running too far back. He also had concerns that the ground may have been too quick.

First declarations are due next Tuesday on 1st October, after which I'll probably start on some horse profiles.

walkermac

25th September 2019, 03:44 PM

It looks like the quarantine issue for those making the second shipment won't be determined until shortly before the plane takes off.

From Coolmore comes news that Il Paradiso, Hunting Horn and Magic Wand have entered quarantine BUT they'll use this 2-week quarantine period to determine if/how many of them will actually be coming. Rob Archibald, Coolmore's racing manager and nominations, said a decision could be left to within days of the flight out of Ireland.

Also into quarantine is former Coolmore stayer Southern France who will be looked after by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace on arrival.

Melbourne Cup nominees racing over the next few days:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Wednesday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>DIVANATION</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Wallace Handicap (1630 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Friday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>BIZZWINKLE (NZ)</td><td>78</td><td>Benalla - Race 9 - 4:35PM Bet365 Benalla Gold Cup (2046 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Benalla - Race 9 - 4:35PM Bet365 Benalla Gold Cup (2046 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>39</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MIDTERM (GB)</td><td>79</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MOSH MUSIC</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>32</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SPANISH STEPS (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>91</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)</td><td>90</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>YUCATAN (IRE)</td><td>27</td><td>The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>TAVISTOCK DANCER (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Mornington - Race 4 - 1:55PM Penang Turf Club Trophy (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>EXEMPLAR (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Mornington - Race 7 - 3:45PM R.M. Ansett Classic (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SELF SENSE</td><td>82</td><td>Mornington - Race 7 - 3:45PM R.M. Ansett Classic (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>88</td><td>Mornington - Race 7 - 3:45PM R.M. Ansett Classic (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>LADY YOUNG</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Morphettville Parks - Race 6 - 4:07PM AAMI Spring Carnival at Morphettville Oct 19 - Nov 5 Handicap (1400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>BLUE BREEZE (NZ)</td><td>80</td><td>Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>DABIYR (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>51</td><td>Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SWEET THOMAS (GER)</td><td>81</td><td>Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>JUST THINKIN'</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Rosehill Gardens - Race 8 - 4:45PM ANTLER GLOAMING STAKES (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Sunday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>7</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>KENEDNA</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TRAP FOR FOOLS</td><td>24</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>YULONG PRINCE (SAF)</td><td>54</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>TARWIN</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:00PM Bass Strait Beef Handicap (1400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

30th September 2019, 01:31 AM

Results from Melbourne Cup nominees the past few days:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Tuesday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>RUNAWAY</td><td>64</td><td>T 1st of 9</td><td></td><td>W FM</td><td>24-Sep-19</td><td>1200m Soft6 OPEN-BT </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Wednesday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>DIVANATION</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>12th of 13</td><td>6.65L</td><td>FLEM</td><td>25-Sep-19</td><td>1630m Good4 BM78 $50,000</td><td>@$4.4</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Friday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>1st of 7</td><td>0L</td><td>BLLA</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>2046m Good3 BLLA CUP $125,000</td><td>@$2.05</td></tr> <tr><td>BIZZWINKLE (NZ)</td><td>78</td><td>3rd of 7</td><td>0.6L</td><td>BLLA</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>2046m Good3 BLLA CUP $125,000</td><td>@$11</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>91</td><td>2nd of 9</td><td>0.1L</td><td>M V</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500</td><td>@$9</td></tr> <tr><td>MOSH MUSIC</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>3rd of 9</td><td>0.85L</td><td>M V</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500</td><td>@$4.8</td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>39</td><td>5th of 9</td><td>2.2L</td><td>M V</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500</td><td>@$15</td></tr> <tr><td>TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)</td><td>90</td><td>6th of 9</td><td>3.45L</td><td>M V</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500</td><td>@$71</td></tr> <tr><td>YUCATAN (IRE)</td><td>27</td><td>7th of 9</td><td>3.85L</td><td>M V</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500</td><td>@$6</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>8th of 9</td><td>4.6L</td><td>M V</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>MIDTERM (GB)</td><td>79</td><td>9th of 9</td><td>6.85L</td><td>M V</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500</td><td>@$51</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>49</td><td>T 9th of 9</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>27-Sep-19</td><td>1045m Good4 OPEN-BT </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>88</td><td>1st of 8</td><td>0L</td><td>MORN</td><td>28-Sep-19</td><td>2400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000</td><td>@$4</td></tr> <tr><td>EXEMPLAR (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>2nd of 8</td><td>0.5L</td><td>MORN</td><td>28-Sep-19</td><td>2400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000</td><td>@$9</td></tr> <tr><td>SELF SENSE</td><td>82</td><td>5th of 8</td><td>6.2L</td><td>MORN</td><td>28-Sep-19</td><td>2400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000</td><td>@$19</td></tr> <tr><td>DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>8th of 8</td><td>8.3L</td><td>MORN</td><td>28-Sep-19</td><td>2400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000</td><td>@$3.4</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>TAVISTOCK DANCER (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>3rd of 7</td><td>1.8L</td><td>MORN</td><td>28-Sep-19</td><td>2000m Good4 BM70 $50,000</td><td>@$4.8</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>LADY YOUNG</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7th of 9</td><td>2.3L</td><td>MRPK</td><td>28-Sep-19</td><td>1400m Good4 MARES BM75 $50,000</td><td>@$2.5</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>DABIYR (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>4th of 9</td><td>4.1L</td><td>RHIL</td><td>28-Sep-19</td><td>2400m Good4 CSTEPHEN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$2.6</td></tr> <tr><td>BLUE BREEZE (NZ)</td><td>80</td><td>9th of 9</td><td>41L</td><td>RHIL</td><td>28-Sep-19</td><td>2400m Good4 CSTEPHEN Group 3 $161,000</td><td>@$41</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>JUST THINKIN'</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>4th of 12</td><td>4.5L</td><td>RHIL</td><td>28-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Good4 GLOAMING Group 3 $201,000</td><td>@$3.2</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Sunday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>7</td><td>2nd of 12</td><td>0.2L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>29-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>TRAP FOR FOOLS</td><td>24</td><td>7th of 12</td><td>3.15L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>29-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$61</td></tr> <tr><td>YULONG PRINCE (SAF)</td><td>54</td><td>8th of 12</td><td>3.55L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>29-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$41</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>9th of 12</td><td>3.95L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>29-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$9.5</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>10th of 12</td><td>4.35L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>29-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>11th of 12</td><td>7.1L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>29-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$41</td></tr> <tr><td>KENEDNA</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>12th of 12</td><td>7.85L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>29-Sep-19</td><td>1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000</td><td>@$19</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>32</td><td>5th of 11</td><td>3.35L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>29-Sep-19</td><td>1700m Good4 HCP $125,000</td><td>@$4</td></tr></tbody></table>

The number listed is as per the latest Order of Entry. First declarations are due on Tuesday.

walkermac

30th September 2019, 02:11 AM

The first shipment of Europeans arrived this weekend, including Melbourne Cup nomineees:
Mirage Dancer<sup>9</sup>
Constantinople<sup>11</sup>
Mustajeer<sup>15</sup>
Red Verdon<sup>33</sup>
Raymond Tusk<sup>34</sup>
Gold Mount<sup>35</sup>
Torcedor<sup>42</sup>
Prince of Arran<sup>48</sup>
True Self<sup>53</sup>
Raheen House<sup>55</sup>
Red Galileo<sup>56</sup>
Haky<sup>71</sup>
Cape Of Good Hope<sup>YTPFBC</sup>

On Tuesday, arriving from Japan are:
Lys de Gracieux<sup>2</sup>
Mer De Glace<sup>YTPFBC</sup>

The second wave of internationals are in quarantine and set for arrival on October 12th:
Cross Counter<sup>4</sup>
Marmelo<sup>6</sup>
Southern France<sup>8</sup>
Master Of Reality<sup>10</sup>
Il Paradiso<sup>12</sup>
Latrobe<sup>13</sup>
Ispolini<sup>18</sup>
Magic Wand<sup>20</sup>
Hunting Horn<sup>21</sup>
Twilight Payment<sup>22</sup>
Downdraft<sup>47</sup>
Norway<sup>74</sup>

That means that there is NO:
Kew Gardens<sup>3</sup>
Dashing Willoghby<sup>23</sup>
Technician<sup>25</sup>
Buckhurst<sup>26</sup>
Morando<sup>28</sup>
Desert Skyline<sup>50</sup>
Barsanti<sup>72</sup>
Stivers<sup>76</sup>
Bin Battuta<sup>85</sup>
Western Australia<sup>89</sup>
Meiner Wunsch<sup>YTPFBC</sup>
Mountain Hunter<sup>YTPFBC</sup>
Eminence<sup>YTPFBC</sup>
Mount Everest<sup>YTPFBC</sup>
South Pacific<sup>YTPFBC</sup>

walkermac

1st October 2019, 06:57 PM

Down to 79 horses following First Acceptances:
https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-melbourne-cup-1st-acceptances

walkermac

1st October 2019, 10:35 PM

Down to 79 horses following First Acceptances:
https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-melbourne-cup-1st-acceptancesCorrection: Racing Victoria made a mistake.

There's actually 80 left after First Acceptances: The Good Fight was omitted in error.

Updated First Acceptors list (https://t.co/2INb4Q07mM)

Updated Order of Entry (https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-as-at-oct-1-4pm)

evajb001

2nd October 2019, 11:00 AM

walkermac, some of the ones i'll be taking a look at more closely soon include:

Steel Prince
Southern France
Constantinople
Il Paradiso
Ispolini
Raymond Tusk

They appear to be the ones that meet my early criteria the best, not sure if you've got any initial thoughts on those 6 runners. I'm thinking i'll start getting some futures bets on soon and make use of some odds boosts where I can as well. From memory usually a horse or two performs well in one of the leadup races and people get overly excited and sometimes crunch those odds in and they generally fall flat in the big race.

I also noticed there seems to be a lot of horses this year that have run in the melbourne cup previously, which rarely end up winning it a second time around.

walkermac

3rd October 2019, 02:33 PM

They appear to be the ones that meet my early criteria the best, not sure if you've got any initial thoughts on those 6 runners.To be honest I haven't done enough research for my opinion to hold much weight and I just haven't seen a performance yet that made me sit up and take notice like Cross Counter's Gordon Stakes win last year did, for example, or Rekindling in the Curragh Cup the year prior.

If the race were today and I had to make a snap decision I'd probably be most interested in Ispolini and Finche, then Master of Reality and Constantinople. But I'm prepared to throw them out entirely as I look deeper into each one as intended.

So we have a little bit of crossover with our respective early fancies.

I was very keen on Il Paradiso but find I have to keep making excuses: doubts on the strength of that Lonsdale Cup run (small field, half of them bled, Stradivarius said to only do "enough" for his wins), his unimpressive performance last race, not having won any blacktype... If all the positive presumptions you need to make are true, then he's a great chance for sure though.

I think the Ebor is very good form this year: the prizemoney was increased so the field was stronger and it was run in very fast time, if memory serves. Raymond Tusk was thought to have had an unlucky run but also doesn't have a good head-to-head record against a lot of other Cup candidates currently at longer odds.

Southern France would be challenging, especially given recent performances alongside Master of Reality and Cross Counter but I think is handicapped a kg or two heavier than ideal.

Steel Prince I would like to see against some internationals to line up form with but, with 8 wins locally appears to be pretty well known by the handicapper and much of his success has been during the leaner months of the racing season.

walkermac

3rd October 2019, 02:42 PM

Here are the Melbourne Cup nominees racing across this long weekend. Most attention will be on the Bart Cummings where the winner will earn ballot exemption. Probably the most interesting race though is the Turnbull Stakes.

<table><tbody><tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>24</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>41</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>LOOKS LIKE ELVIS</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>23</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>14</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>35</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TRAP FOR FOOLS</td><td>20</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>36</td><td>Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>56</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>48</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>55</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)</td><td>62</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>22</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>47</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TE AKAU CALIBURN (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>12</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CENTURY (IRE)</td><td>50</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>16</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>32</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>63</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>31</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>52</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>46</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>49</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>58</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>34</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>39</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>40</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>29</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>45</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Sunday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>BONDEIGER</td><td>57</td><td>bet365 Bairnsdale - Race 7 - 4:50PM Patties Foods Bairnsdale Cup (1600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Monday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>FAIRLIGHT (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Warwick Farm - Race 6 - 4:20PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (2130 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Warwick Farm - Race 6 - 4:20PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (2130 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

5th October 2019, 12:53 AM

Here's a bit of fun. It's time for a progressive look at "the system".

The first time I hosted one of these threads I included a few historical form factor factoids spread through different horse profiles. After the race was won and done, I went back and collected the form factors to see how they did. The Cup winner was the only one who satisfied all of the following:

Less than 8 years old
Weight < 57kg (unless Makybe Diva)
Not a mare (unless Makybe Diva)
<= $21 starting price
< $16 in last start
Weighted lower than in preceding race
Field size in last race >= 10
Previously won a black type race
Finished within 7 lengths in last race
No more than 5 career victories
Within first 9 runners at the turn in last race
The 'Finished within 7 lengths in last race' was changed to 3 lengths after looking at recent results.

The 'Within first 9 runners at the turn in last race' was omitted from last year's calculations; probably 'cause it was hard to determine for some runners and pretty useless for others, given that many of the fields comprised of 9 runners or less in any case!

Last year 'the system' was used ahead of the race and it did pretty well. The first 4 were among the top 7 rated by the system and the winner was one of those in yellow.

Now what's this yellow business? The horses with a yellow background in the image were those with a Conduit Mare Profile Stamina number of 17. Search for the 'Is Dosage Bunkum?' thread for the background, but essentially only 24% of Cup runners have this figure of 17 but they've won 10 of the past 11 races (missed in 2010).

Now that's all out of the way, here's a progressive standing of where the nominees figure per 'the system'. Obviously this is going to change following further racing. I might update it once a week just to see how much movement there is.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Order</td><td>Total</td><td>Less than 8yo</td><td>Wgt < 57kg</td><td>Not a mare</td><td><= $21 SP</td><td>< $16 in last</td><td>Weighted lower</td><td>FS in last >= 10</td><td>Won Black Type</td><td><=3L in last</td><td><6 victories</td></tr> <tr><td>ISPOLINI (GB)</td><td>15</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>24</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>47</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)</td><td>8</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>43</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)</td><td>27</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>38</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>5</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>13</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>58</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>36</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>7</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)</td><td>19</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MARMELO (GB)</td><td>4</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE)</td><td>6</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>LATROBE (IRE)</td><td>11</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>14</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN)</td><td>65</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>ZACADA (NZ)</td><td>53</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>55</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>52</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>66</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)</td><td>62</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>JUST THINKIN'</td><td>69=</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>69=</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>GOLD MOUNT (GB)</td><td>28</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>51</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>CROSS COUNTER (GB)</td><td>2</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>37</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>29</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TRUE SELF (IRE)</td><td>42</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>23</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>49</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>YUCATAN (IRE)</td><td>21</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>34</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>41</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>48</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>22</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>69=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>61</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>25</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>LORD FANDANGO (GER)</td><td>68</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>45</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>LOOKS LIKE ELVIS</td><td>69=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>69=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>69=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TE AKAU CALIBURN (IRE)</td><td>69=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)</td><td>69=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>63</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>44</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>IL PARADISO (USA)</td><td>10</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>18</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RED VERDON (USA)</td><td>26</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>64</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td><td>67</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>3</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>TRAP FOR FOOLS</td><td>20</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SWEET THOMAS (GER)</td><td>54</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE)</td><td>17</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>12</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>46</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>30</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>35</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>31</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>56</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>69=</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>59</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>40</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>69=</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>FAIRLIGHT (IRE)</td><td>69=</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TORCEDOR (IRE)</td><td>33</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CENTURY (IRE)</td><td>50</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>32</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>16</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>69=</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>39</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>BONDEIGER</td><td>57</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)</td><td>60</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

7th October 2019, 01:56 PM

Surprise Baby has been penalised 1kg in the Melbourne Cup following his win in The Bart Cummings. This takes him from 52.5kg to 53.5kg.

Almandin received the same penalty in 2016. He was given an Official Handicap Rating of 99 following the 2016 Bart Cummings. In the Cup he carried 52kg (though he was originally given 51kg, the field shifted up 1kg so that the topweight was at least 57kg - the rule at the time).

Surprise Baby now has a current Official Handicap Rating of 104 - only going up 1 rating point following his win. ...which says something about Saturday's opposition, I suppose. That accounts for the 5 rating point/2.5kg difference between what he's now set to carry vs what Almandin was supposed to carry in 2016.

For comparison's sake, Almandin's Bart Cummings victory was in 2'37.47s (35.27s last 600m), lumping 55kg. Surprise Baby did it in 2'38.66s (35.18s) with 57kg; so about two lengths slower with the weight discrepancy taken into account. It was also the 10th race in both of their careers: for Almandin it was preceded by 4 Australian runs, in which his overseas handicap actually came down (so it wasn't like they had guessed his standard horribly wrong).

Almandin would go on to win the 2016 Melbourne Cup, of course, just 0.1 lengths ahead of Heartbreak City, but 4.45 lengths ahead of 3rd. In that respect it seems a pretty sporting penalty for Surprise Baby, particularly given that he's already shown he can comfortably run 2 miles in his Adelaide Cup victory earlier this year.

The problem is that Cross Counter, for example, has a 118 handicap and is also quite handy over 3200m. Assuming rough equivalence between British and Australian official ratings, there should be a 7kg difference between what Cross Counter carries (57.5kg) and Surprise Baby (now 53.5kg) does: there's only 4kg (or 8 lengths over 3200m, as Greg Carpenter has it). Even worse is Master of Reality, also with 118 from Irish Racing but only carrying 55.5kg.

In that regard, Surprise Baby has had few favours when compared to some overseas raiders. Then again, the ratings get a little wibbly-wobbly over longer races, so it's all a matter of interpretation...

Following his Bart Cummings win Surprise Baby was briefly the Cup favourite. At $9. Which was a huge overreaction... Presumably following his penalty he's now out to $13 and it's Finche that has moved into favouritism at $8.

Both Finche and Surprise Baby were ranked highly per 'the system', which I posted ahead of Saturday's racing, so hopefully that prompted people to get on before their odds were slashed - if they were going to anyway.

I stupidly tried to multi Surprise Baby in the Bart Cummings and Melbourne Cup futures. It's not in my pending bets so I presume that it wasn't accepted due to them being related events. I just didn't see it complain obviously enough about it at the time.

walkermac

7th October 2019, 11:45 PM

Here's an updated Order of Entry: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-as-at-oct-7

Surprise Baby has won an exemption.
Big Duke has jumped Youngstar (though they're back in 32nd and 33rd).
Kings Will Dream leaps over Patrick Erin and Scarlet Dream into 40th position.
Sir Charles Road and Gallic Chieftan each move ahead of Red Galileo (now in 47th).
Supernova and Wolfe have passed the first ballot clause, but are in 60th and 63rd positions respectively.
Second declarations are due noon next Tuesday.

And here's the weekend's results from Cup nominees:

<table><tbody><tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>1=</td><td>1st of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>60</td><td>2nd of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$6</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>63</td><td>3rd of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$8</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>56</td><td>5th of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$21</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>48</td><td>6th of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$16</td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7th of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)</td><td>64</td><td>9th of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$9</td></tr> <tr><td>THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>10th of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$91</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>55</td><td>11th of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$19</td></tr> <tr><td>TE AKAU CALIBURN (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>12th of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$21</td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>23</td><td>13th of 13</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2520m Good3 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $502,500</td><td>@$101</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>40</td><td>1st of 11</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $502,500</td><td>@$11</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>25</td><td>2nd of 11</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $502,500</td><td>@$5.5</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>37</td><td>4th of 11</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $502,500</td><td>@$17</td></tr> <tr><td>LOOKS LIKE ELVIS</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6th of 11</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $502,500</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>36</td><td>7th of 11</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $502,500</td><td>@$151</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>15</td><td>9th of 11</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $502,500</td><td>@$12</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>24</td><td>10th of 11</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $502,500</td><td>@$3.4</td></tr> <tr><td>TRAP FOR FOOLS</td><td>21</td><td>11th of 11</td><td></td><td>FLEM</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Good3 TURNBULL Group 1 $502,500</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>46</td><td>2nd of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$18</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>45</td><td>3rd of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>32</td><td>5th of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$13</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>41</td><td>6th of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$101</td></tr> <tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>65</td><td>7th of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$17</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>58</td><td>8th of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$10</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>52</td><td>9th of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$5.5</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>49</td><td>10th of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>42</td><td>12th of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$10</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>35</td><td>13th of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$11</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>30</td><td>14th of 14</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2400m Soft6 THE METROP Group 1 $755,000</td><td>@$18</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>17</td><td>1st of 8</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 HILL STKS Group 2 $502,000</td><td>@$2.4</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CENTURY (IRE)</td><td>50</td><td>6th of 8</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 HILL STKS Group 2 $502,000</td><td>@$51</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>33</td><td>7th of 8</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 HILL STKS Group 2 $502,000</td><td>@$10</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>13</td><td>8th of 8</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>5-Oct-19</td><td>2000m Soft6 HILL STKS Group 2 $502,000</td><td>@$4.2</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Sunday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>FAIRLIGHT (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7th of 10</td><td></td><td>W FM</td><td>7-Oct-19</td><td>2130m Soft5 BM74 $60,000</td><td>@$5</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>Monday</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>BONDEIGER</td><td>57</td><td>6th of 9</td><td></td><td>BDLE</td><td>6-Oct-19</td><td>1600m Good3 BAIRNSDALE CUP $70,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

8th October 2019, 12:47 AM

Not a whole lot changed with the order of horses per 'the system'.

Hush Writer stayed on 9 points but received a boost to his handicap. An 8th place finish doesn't sound too notable, but it was his first Group 1 race and he only finished 2 lengths behind the winner in The Metropolitan. His rating moved from 96 to 101.

A similar story for Vow And Declare but the rise in his rating was even larger: from 85 to 100. Notable rating rises also went to Te Akau Caliburn (+4), Alfarris (+5), Looks Like Elvis (+4) and Attention Run (+12), though those are all well down the order.

Rostopovich dropped down the table following what looked like a meh run in The Turnbull. The Stewards Report said he over raced early and was three wide. He held his ground at the end but did not run on.

Kings Will Dream gained a point after his win in the same race. Neufbosc, Wolfe, Supernova and Fairlight also moved up to 8 points. But it's a different 8 points really... Wolfe and Supernova took out the placings in the Bart Cummings, gaining a point for finishing within 3 lengths of the winner. Fairlight gained a point for the same but his was via a 7th placing in a BM74. Neufbosc earned an extra point for starting at < $16; never mind that he finished 30 lengths behind!

Ispolini, Finche and Surprise Baby are still on top with 10 points; the latter the only one to have a Conduit Mare Stamina figure of 17 (on the minus side: he's carrying too much weight).

walkermac

9th October 2019, 12:52 AM

https://resource11.racingandsports.com.au/Photos/photogallery/large/2019/Horse-surprise-baby-130335-750x500.jpg

Surprise Baby
5yo B/BR Gelding
Shocking (AUS) - Bula Baby (NZ) [By Kaapstad (NZ)]

10s: 5-1-1

Surprise Baby is the great local hope in the 2019 Melbourne Cup. Forgive for the moment that he is New Zealand-bred; that's close enough! The Europeans have had it too much their own way, lately. Though is that any wonder given the dire local programming of endurance races and the focus on breeding early-maturing sprinters in Australia?

New Zealand isn't quite as enamoured by the shorter races. Still though, his sire Shocking - the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner - stands at Rich Hill Stud in Waikato, NZ and his coverage fee is a comparatively paltry $NZ8500. A price that was actually dropped from $10,000 the year before! Bred to Bula Baby, who predominately raced over the mile to mile and a quarter - their progeny was so unappealing it was passed in at auction: twice.

Eventually his breeders listed him on gavelhorse.com, a site where you can buy a horse for as little as a few hundred dollars. Surprise Baby's sale price was $NZ5500. His current winnings are over $700,000.

Had he not sold, Rich Hill Stud would have run him themselves. They could be upset about it all (not to mention having also sold his dam in the meantime) but are doubtless feeling positive about Shocking become a more popular sire (he has several progeny for sale in the upcoming Ready To Run Sale in late November, which should be a fair indication of change in market sentiment).

Shocking has sired 153 runners thus far; of those there has only been one Group 1 winner: Fanatic, who narrowly won the 2016 New Zealand Oaks (a 3yo race over 2400m at Trentham). His progeny predominately contest 1200-2000m, though those who are tested at the Cup distance seem to do reasonably well: 6 individual runners share 3 wins and 2 places over 12 attempts.

One of these, of course, is Surprise Baby, who has already shown he can run the distance following his victory in the Adelaide Cup earlier this year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJb0KsO5_kE

While he impressively pulled away to win by two lengths (as a 72-rater in a Group 2 race), even his jockey stated that it "wasn't the strongest Adelaide Cup ever". Perhaps more should be made of the win though, considering that it was only his 6th start and he leapt 1200m further than his last, after he missed a lead-up run on account of being scratching due to barrier manners. In his favour for the Cup, he showed that he has a very nice turn of foot.

So: Adelaide Cup winner. Big deal, right? After all, the previous winners never seemed to go on to greatness, did they? (The 2018 winner was his "brother" Fanatic, in what turned out to be his final Australian race). What was different this year was that another Melbourne Cup ballot exemption race had been added to the calendar: the Andrew Ramsden.

Surprise Baby's target became this race. On the way he placed in a Flemington 2600m handicap, despite being severley inconvenienced by Belgravia, who was injured and sadly had to be euthanised. His final 800m was the fastest in the field but was left a little too much to do, finishing 0.4 lengths from the winner Steel Prince. There was a 6kg difference in the Prince's favour.

In the Andrew Ramsden, Surprise Baby and Steel Prince had a ding-dong battle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YsfrIGsXys. The result went to a photo with Steel Prince just taking the win and earning a ticket into the Melbourne Cup.

Surprise Baby spelled and returned over 1600m with a middling effort, before his win in the Bart Cummings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P66NyCL9tEA, earning the Cup exemption that he had just missed out on earlier this year.

He again showed that he was likely to race midfield or worse before unleashing a fierce, sustained finishing burst. Encouragingly he did this despite being weighted higher than those he overhauled. The query is whether he will be able to do this against far higher standard competitors....

Surprise Baby's Dosage Profile is (1-14-19-0-0) with a DI of 2.58 and CD of 0.47. That would indicate his best is at around is at about 2200m.

His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-6-5-6-11) with Speed 10, Stamina 17 , Index of 0.58, and Triads (15-17-22) which seems to imply a little longer. The bulk of that profile is in the Professional category, after all, so perhaps around 2600-2800m is his best distance. That Stamina figure of 17 has seemed to be the magic number for Melbourne Cup winners the past few years, with 10 of the past 11 winners having the same. This year only 10 of the remaining candidates have such, and only 5 of those are in the top 24 per the current Order of Entry.

His win saw him briefly become the race favourite before a 1kg penalty was announced. He's now the second favourite, somewhere between $9.50 and $11.00, depending on the bookie.

I like this horse a lot. But I would feel far more confident were he carrying less than 53.5kg. The encouraging thing is that he's only 10 races into his career, so the handicapper might not quite have a bead on him yet. As it stands though, he has a 104 handicap rating and Master of Reality, for example, is rated at 118. They should be 7kg apart in the weights, but there's only a 2kg difference. 5 kilos/10 lengths is a whole lot of distance to make up given that the bulk of that is likely to occur in the final straight of a 3200m against hardened Group1 winners...

While things could certainly fall in his favour and he may take victory, I'm inclined to think that he'll be a Top 5 finisher and fall just short. This is the '17 Stamina' horse that should win but has been set a very difficult and weighty task. This might break the run....

walkermac

9th October 2019, 12:14 PM

Acceptances for this weekend's racing from Melbourne Cup nominees.

A few of the internationals will be marking their release from Quarantine with a run in the Herbert Power: Prince of Arran, Raheen House, Haky and True Self. Their Australian ratings differ from their British ones a little. Raheen House has a British handicap of 111 and an Aussie mark of 105. Prince of Arran has been given the same Aussie rating but is only 108 at home.

<table><tbody><tr><td>Saturday</td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>31</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>51</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>39</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>26</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>44</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1=</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>62</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SWEET THOMAS (GER)</td><td>54</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TRUE SELF (IRE)</td><td>43</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 5 - 2:35PM Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>4</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 3:50PM Ladbrokes Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>6</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 3:50PM Ladbrokes Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 7 - 3:50PM Ladbrokes Stakes (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 2 - 1:45PM HARROLDS HANDICAP (2000 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>JUST THINKIN'</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 7 - 4:50PM MOËT & CHANDON SPRING CHAMPION STAKES (2000 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

The Ocho

9th October 2019, 09:16 PM

Thanks for all the updates walkermac. I can't wait for the final system horses.

walkermac

10th October 2019, 05:54 PM

https://resource11.racingandsports.com.au/Photos/photogallery/large/2019/Horse-steel-prince-134000-750x500.jpg

Steel Prince
5yo B Gelding
Nathaniel (IRE) - Steel Princess (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]

20s: 8-5-1

Steel Prince is the other horse currently holding a ballot exemption for the 2019 Melbourne Cup. For the first time, this was on account of a win in May's Listed 2800m Andrew Ramsden. The internationalisation of The Cup has been a hot button topic in recent times and the addition of this race to those offering ballot exemption was largely to more easily provide a pathway for an Australian runner.

A 'pathway for an Australian trainer' is perhaps more accurate. Steel Prince after all was bred and raced in Ireland. Locals buying interest in internationals on Cup-eve is the new trend, so give it a couple of years and the bulk of entrants in the Andrew Ramsden will likely be those very same looking for another chance. It's very much a short-term band-aid solution, when the actual answer is to provide a racing calendar that gives endurance horses a chance at a career.

None of that should reflect on Steel Prince's win in the Andrew Ramsden, however. As noted in the Surprise Baby profile, it was a close and exciting battle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YsfrIGsXys. Steel Prince's win closed out a remarkable 5yo 2018/19 Season: 11 races comprising 7 wins and 4 seconds.

His Australian career started at BM70 level (after winning his maiden in Ireland as part of a short non-descript career; including a loss in his debut to Homesman). Once he hit the 2400m distance he looked a real prospect though.

He then got caught up in the Darren Weir scandal and was part of a diaspora that saw him end up with Lee Freedman. This new partnership began with him stringing 5 wins together, including the Andrew Ramsden, and a rise of 20 rating points.

Surprise Baby was favourite in that race, following a narrow loss to Steel Prince earlier that month and a 6.5kg swing in his favour in the weights this time around. Though there was only 0.1L in it at the finish line, Surprise Baby ran nearly 4 lengths longer over the course, so Steel Prince could have been said to be lucky. I think it moreso says something about the competitor Steel Prince is; the Best Bets race comment has it that he "refused to lose".

So Steel Prince was first into the Melbourne Cup; though it wasn't such a sure thing for quite some time. There were delays in awarding prizemoney for the race and rumours swirled that they had found something in the swabs taken. For a time Surprise Baby was best backed for the Cup, with the suspicion he was about to be elevated to Ramsden winner and take the ballot exemption. It turned out this was all for nought though, with the prizemoney finally coming through with no official concerns and Surprise Baby winning exemption through the Bart Cummings (though those who moved early would still be happy with the odds they got earlier on in the piece).

The big advantage of winning the Ramsden was being able to plot your program to the Cup without having to stress about qualifying. This was particularly advantageous for Steel Prince as according to his trainer: "He's a European horse and the more you run them the more dour they get". The plan was his fourth run of this campaign to be the Melbourne Cup. With his next race this Saturday's Herbert Power Stakes it means he'll likely skip the Caulfield Cup, for which he still holds a nomination.

This is his first Group 2 race and his first against such weighty opposition: and it will only get tougher as none of these are higher than 26 in the order of entry. Last year's 3rd placegetter Prince of Arran makes his return, as does Ebor Cup favourite Raheen House. Both of these also appear to have received some handicap favours, carrying 1.5-3kg less than their British Official Ratings would imply. Despite this Steel Prince is the $3.90 favourite.

I find it hard to see him winning this Saturday, unless he improves lengths on what he's shown before. That's certainly not impossible given his trajectory but, given the top 6 are all weighted per their Melbourne Cup handicaps, if there isn't that improvement - or at least excuses - then it's hard to see him succeeding there either.

On the positive side, he's another with the magic 17 Stamina figure. He's also one of the few that survived the genealogy filtering I do (looking at ancestors Conduit Indexes, GSV figures, Dosage and other nonsense). Only he and Southern France survived the process (with Cross Counter missing out on account of the weight he'll carry).

His Dosage Profile is (3-6-21-8-0) with DI of 1.05 and CD of 0.11. This would imply that up to 3200m should be fine. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-9-1-8-9), with Speed 12, Stamina 17 and Conduit Index of 0.59 and Triads of (13-18-18); say: 2400m is ideal?

Currently at $26 in Futures betting and it seems fair for mine, that that would stay the same until race day, unless he shows marked improvement this weekend. I don't think he'll be among "the system's" top picks, having already won 8 career races, for one thing. If I were pressed to pick where he'll finish, I'd go midfield, give or take.

walkermac

11th October 2019, 11:24 PM

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Marmelo-734x460.png

Marmelo

6yo B Horse
Duke Of Marmalade - Capriolla (GB) [by In The Wings (GB)]

22s: 7-8-1

I wanted to write another profile while I had some momentum; I have doubts that tomorrow's headliners Avilius and Homesman will go on to contest the Melbourne Cup, no others racing this weekend have made the final field yet, and I didn't want to waste my effort on a non-runner. So why not Marmelo?

In 2017 I wrote on Marmelo's profile: here's the horse that will win The Cup. I checked. I was only joshing though. I'd looked at some genealogical filters of past winners and Marmelo was the only one in the current field who fell within the bounds. The reason I was joking about it was because I believed it was all a bit silly.

In yesterday's profile I wrote that only Steel Prince and Southern France survived this year's genealogical filtering so, given that this stuff doesn't change from year-to-year, where was Marmelo this time around? Well, in turns out this stuff does change from year-to-year! pedigreequery.com now sources their Dosage data from an Australian consortium who use additional/different chefs. These figures put Marmelo just out of bounds (and likely many of the others from history on whom my filters were based); I might try and update it again later.

In 2017 Hugh Bowman went for home waaaay too early and Marmelo's run ended with 300m to go. Post-race his trainer thought that he may have been left flat by his run in the Caulfield Cup. Bowman certainly expected more in the tank and a look at Marmelo's stats seemed to bear the hypothesis out.

The following year they elected to go straight to the Cup without a lead-up run. This decision bore fruit when he was only overhauled by the far too lightly-weighted Cross Counter in the last 50m: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGUBQdYmiWY

The end result was perhaps even better than it looked: the Steward's Report recorded that he began awkwardly, tried to eat Avilius on leaving the gates and then finished up lame in his hind leg. He did get a pretty charmed run around the turn though, which saw him cut towards the inside and improve 8 places within 200m.

So what's changed this year? The Australian preparation surely hasn't. The intent is still to go straight into The Cup. His handicap has gone up 1kg though. Sort of. Hugh Bowman weighed 1kg over for last year's race, so his handicap is essentially unchanged. The northern hemisphere 4yos have been slugged an extra kilo this time, so given that he was beaten narrowly by the best of those last year and that the 3rd place horse (Prince of Arran) was 2 lengths further back: they'd be stoked, surely! The query is whether he's bringing the same form this year....

Per the Official French Ratings, he is: http://www.france-galop.com/en/horse/UC85UzUrclB3aTl3OXk4dW1uUitZdz09. His rating hasn't gone below 51.5 (i.e. 114) since the 2017 Melbourne Cup. The British ratings agree: 114 ahead of the 2018 Cup (a peak of 117 after it) and now back to 114.

One change this season is that he's had some shorter runs. Last year he didn't run below 2800m, this season he had 3 runs over 2400m. While his first showed an impressive finish (https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1117163356987764736), the next two 2400m performances were a little middling.

Back at 2800m and above he had two good runs. The first of these a nose behind Way To Paris at equal weights (and 4 lengths ahead of 3rd): https://youtu.be/JUYbtGgguiI. Way To Paris (115) would finish 2 lengths behind Waldgeist following this run, carrying the same, and Waldgeist (128) would next take out the Arc by 1.75L.

Another Prix Kergolay victory followed for Marmelo (https://youtu.be/e8Gd3hkddl4), narrowly finishing ahead of Call The Wind (115) who would split Holdthaisgreen (116) and Dee Ex Bee (119) in his next race at equal weights.

What a long-winded way to say that Marmelo does indeed seem to be going as well as he was last year, if not better.... And if that's the case he looks a very good chance of another top finish.

walkermac

12th October 2019, 07:51 PM

Today's results from Cup nominees:

<table><tbody><tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>PFBC</td><td>1st of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$6.5</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>39</td><td>2nd of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$8.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>62</td><td>3rd of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$9.5</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>4th of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$101</td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>5th of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$7.5</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>44</td><td>6th of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$9.5</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>26</td><td>8th of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$17</td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>31</td><td>9th of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$11</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>10th of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$18</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>51</td><td>11th of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$6.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SWEET THOMAS (GER)</td><td>54</td><td>12th of 13</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $401,000</td><td>@$101</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>4</td><td>4th of 10</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2000m Good3 CAULFIELD STKS Group 1 $1,002,750</td><td>@$2.05</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>5th of 10</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2000m Good3 CAULFIELD STKS Group 1 $1,002,750</td><td>@$19</td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>6</td><td>6th of 10</td><td></td><td>CAUL</td><td>2000m Good3 CAULFIELD STKS Group 1 $1,002,750</td><td>@$4.4</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>1st of 7</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>2000m Good4 BM88</td><td>@$2.1</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>JUST THINKIN'</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>4th of 11</td><td></td><td>RAND</td><td>2000m Good4 CHAMPION Group 1 $1,005,000</td><td>@$8</td></tr></tbody></table>

The Chosen One passes the first ballot clause and looks like he'll be around 42nd in the Order. If he gets a 1kg penalty then he'll be about 30th. I think it's quite plausible he'll get 1.5kg - which means he's as high as 23rd. Prince of Arran may be in the running for one also, they both put 3 lengths on the rest of the field.... The problem is that it wasn't a very strong field. Yucatan got a 2.5kg penalty for his Herbert Power win in 2018 with a smaller margin, but he eased down a lot and his race was still a second faster (both on Good 3). Racing Victoria will announce any penalties on Monday, along with a new Order of Entry. Second Acceptances are due at noon the day after.

Steel Prince was a late scratching; per the Steward's Report: "Fractious in the barrier and kicked out. Underwent a veterinary examination and was found to be lame left hind and had sustained abrasions to the thigh". Will need a vet clearance ahead of his next race. When might that be? It was reported they wanted another run ahead of the Melbourne Cup. They haven't made the Caulfield Cup field. Would he heal in time for Wednesday's 2000m Coongy Cup? Other targets could be the Geelong Cup on the 23rd, or the Moonee Valley Cup on the 26th.

walkermac

13th October 2019, 12:50 PM

A couple of less likely candidates are running today:

<table><tbody><tr><td>LOOKS LIKE ELVIS</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Cranbourne - Race 9 - 5:10PM TAB Cranbourne Cup (2025 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>LORD FANDANGO (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Cranbourne - Race 9 - 5:10PM TAB Cranbourne Cup (2025 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

13th October 2019, 06:09 PM

The second wave of internationals arrived yesterday afternoon and are settled in for a 2 week stay in quarantine. They are able to run from October 26th (Cox Plate day):
Cross Counter<sup>3</sup>
Marmelo<sup>5</sup>
Southern France<sup>7</sup>
Master Of Reality<sup>9</sup>
Il Paradiso<sup>11</sup>
Latrobe<sup>12</sup>
Ispolini<sup>16</sup>
Magic Wand<sup>18</sup>
Hunting Horn<sup>19</sup>
Twilight Payment<sup>20</sup>
Downdraft<sup>38</sup>

No good result for today's Cup nominees running in the Cranbourne Cup. It was taken out by Dr Drill with nominees Looks Like Elvis finishing in 8th, one place ahead of his fellow Lord Fandango.

It was reported that Steel Prince has sustained no long-term injury following x-rays after his scratching yesterday. As anticipated, his next race will either be the Geelong or Moonee Valley Cups.

walkermac

14th October 2019, 01:38 PM

The Chosen One has received a measly 0.5kg penalty following his win in the Herbert Power Stakes. That seems to imply that, per the handicapper, only he and Prince of Arran are any good and the rest who participated in the race are rubbish.

As noted, the win meant he passed the first ballot clause and - with the extra 0.5kg - is now set to carry 52kg in the Cup, currently lying at 37th in the Order.

The updated Order of Entry is available here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-as-at-oct-14

Competing in Wednesday's Coongy Cup (which gives ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup) are Melbourne Cup nominees:
TOP OF THE RANGE<sup>64</sup>
WOLFE<sup>62</sup>
<sup>
</sup>

walkermac

14th October 2019, 01:54 PM

Here is an update of the standings in 'the system' following the weekend's racing. Pretty tight at the top!

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Order</td><td>Total</td><td>Less than 8yo</td><td>Wgt < 57kg</td><td>Not a mare</td><td><= $21 SP</td><td>< $16 in last</td><td>Weighted lower</td><td>FS in last >= 10</td><td>Won Black Type</td><td><=3L in last</td><td><6 victories</td></tr> <tr><td>ISPOLINI (GB)</td><td>16</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>25</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>1=</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>10</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)</td><td>28</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>59</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>6</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>40</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>45</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>14</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>38</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>37</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>JUST THINKIN'</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>8</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)</td><td>20</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>LATROBE (IRE)</td><td>12</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MARMELO (GB)</td><td>5</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE)</td><td>7</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>41</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>53</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>35</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ZACADA (NZ)</td><td>54</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)</td><td>65</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>64</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>61</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>FAIRLIGHT (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>GOLD MOUNT (GB)</td><td>29</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>4</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CROSS COUNTER (GB)</td><td>3</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>39</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>24</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>TRUE SELF (IRE)</td><td>44</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>47</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>15</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>30</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>13</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>52</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>YUCATAN (IRE)</td><td>22</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>23</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>63</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPER TITUS (GB)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>56</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>32</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>46</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>LORD FANDANGO (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>48</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>IL PARADISO (USA)</td><td>11</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>19</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RED VERDON (USA)</td><td>27</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE)</td><td>18</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>49</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>31</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>TRAP FOR FOOLS</td><td>21</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>LOOKS LIKE ELVIS</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>36</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SWEET THOMAS (GER)</td><td>55</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>17</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>33</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>42</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>57</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>26</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HANG MAN (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>TE AKAU CALIBURN (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>60</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TORCEDOR (IRE)</td><td>34</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>50</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>66</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)</td><td>62</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SCARLET DREAM</td><td>43</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>OUR CENTURY (IRE)</td><td>51</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>BONDEIGER</td><td>58</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>

UselessBettor

14th October 2019, 07:44 PM

Some of these don't apply at the moment unless they don't race again:

< $16 in last
Weighted lower
<=3L in last
FS in last >= 10

I assumed Weighted lower was weighted lower than last start.

These 4 will make a huge difference when they all compete against each other in the standard lead up races.

walkermac

14th October 2019, 11:41 PM

Some of these don't apply at the moment unless they don't race againYep, exactly right; that's why they're changing from week-to-week after the most recent races. It'll be interesting to see how much movement there is from the first list to the last; there hasn't been much so far. And of course, there's a few horses we know won't run 'til Cup day and can roughly see where they're going to be ranked (Ispolini is going to be in the first bunch; Cross Counter isn't, for example).

I see that Prince of Arran's odds have come in on some sites and now also has a score of 10.

walkermac

15th October 2019, 02:04 PM

Can't see it announced anywhere yet, but with my 1337 hacking skillz (i.e. typing a different date into the URL), here is the Order of Entry list following second acceptances: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-as-at-oct-15

walkermac

15th October 2019, 02:21 PM

There's 64 remaining in the running for a Melbourne Cup berth. We say a sad farewell to:
Trap For Fools (formerly at #21)
Torcedor (#34 - out for the Spring)
Scarlet Dream (#43)
Our Century (#51)
Zacada (#54)
Sweet Thomas (#55)
Bondeiger (#58)
King of Leogrance (#65)

And also from those who were yet to pass the first ballot clause:
Lord Fandango
Fairlight
Hang Man
Just Thinkin'
Looks Like Elvis
Super Titus
Te Akau Caliburn
The Good Fight

It was announced yesterday that Raymond Tusk was skipping the Caulfield Cup to focus on the Melbourne Cup. He was at 28th in the Order at the time, so I figured they were confident he was going to get a start after asking around and determining several were likely to drop out today. He's still only at 27th though with plenty of opportunity for others to leap him. It's a bit of a gamble...

I'm sure a couple will drop out and have just paid the extra few thousand as insurance if something goes awry for them ahead of the Caulfield or Cox (like it did for Steel Prince last week).

UselessBettor

15th October 2019, 08:21 PM

It was announced yesterday that Raymond Tusk was skipping the Caulfield Cup to focus on the Melbourne Cup. He was at 28th in the Order at the time, so I figured they were confident he was going to get a start after asking around and determining several were likely to drop out today. He's still only at 27th though with plenty of opportunity for others to leap him. It's a bit of a gamble...

I'm sure a couple will drop out and have just paid the extra few thousand as insurance if something goes awry for them ahead of the Caulfield or Cox (like it did for Steel Prince last week).

I understand that if your in the top 15. But 27th is crazy and very likely to miss out.

walkermac

16th October 2019, 02:00 AM

https://godolphin-cpl.netdna-ssl.com/sites/default/files/styles/horse_profile/public/uploads/Ispolini-1st-Maiden-Kempton-291117-JH-01-A.jpg (https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcRAuL_ler8fmqUPYgdz-3scqNdYX6otrbUUtNXmy6WbvD5hZIsL)

Ispolini
4yo B Gelding
Dubawi (IRE) - Giants Play (USA) [By Giant's Causeway (USA)]

11s: 4-3-0

Ispolini has been sitting on top of 'the system' rankings and will still be there come raceday, given that he's not expected to have a lead-up run ahead of The Cup. There's actually some sub-sorting of those horses on equal scores that has heretofore gone unmentioned. Those with a weight advantage are listed foremost. Cross Counter has a 118 handicap from the British Horseracing Authority and Ispolini has 115. That means that the latter should carry 1.5kg less than the former. Instead Ispolini carries 55kg to Cross Counter's 57.5kg. 6 horses of the current top-24 have a weight advantage (with respect to Cross Counter) and only Master of Reality (-2kg) and Il Paradiso (-1.5kg) fare better than Ispolini does.

A more direct comparison between Ispolini and his stablemate Cross Counter can be made: they faced each other in Cross Counter's first race following his 2018 Melbourne Cup victory: the Dubai World Cup. Held over 3200m the two were at level weights with Ispolini finishing just 1.25L behind: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxryP4DxT-Q&t=1s. Also in the race was Gold Mount (8.25L back), Red Galileo (31L back); and Prince of Arran (31.25L back) - each carrying 2.5kg extra. Ispolini now has a 2.5kg swing in his favour in the Melbourne Cup.

I've said that unlike previous years I've struggled to identify a run that got me excited. Maybe it's this one by Ispolini, his race prior: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf0mhcEXq7Y. He beats 2nd - Red Galileo again - by over 10 lengths. It's still over a second outside of the track record (by Almoonqith) but he does it very easily.

Less impressive was his return to England following his UAE campaign, the Yorkshire Cup Stakes: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1129387744101314561. He's well-beaten by Stradivarius (fair enough) but also Southern France - and the latter gets a further 2kg in his favour in the Melbourne Cup. Was Ispolini's performance here too bad to be true? It was a big drop from what was shown in Meydan and he was sent for a spell afterwards, so perhaps. The Racing Post has it that the race was 5secs slower than par, so he might not have been suited by the race shape either.

He most recently resumed in Dortmund at the Deutsches St Leger, taking out the win but not putting paid to his competition. The rest of the first 4 were rated at 107 going into the race (2nd placegetter Djukon carried 4kg less, in his second career start, otherwise they were at equal weights). It looks to be on a par with his Yorkshire Cup Stakes performance. Instead of asking what went wrong there, it might be better to ask what went right in Meydan? Over there he was 2 wins and 2 seconds from 4 starts. His remaining two career wins were his maiden (on All-Weather for a purse under $10k) and what looks a middling performance in Dortmund. With such inconsistency it would have been very helpful to see him have a run in Australia ahead of the big dance....

His Dosage Profile is (2-16-13-10-1) with Points Across The Board. His DI is 1.4 and Cd is 0.19. This would suggest a most suited distance of around 3000m. His Conduit Mare Profile is very symmetrical: (7-7-4-7-7) with Speed and Stamina both 14, a Conduit Index of 1 and Triads (18-18-18). This is very atypical for a Melbourne Cup runner, just over 5.5% of those this century have a Speed figure greater than or equal to their Stamina figure. The best finisher of these was Criterion (3rd in 2015), then Big Duke (4th in 2017). 2015 was a sit and sprint/demolition derby and one could argue that there are few conclusions that can be drawn from it. And Big Duke was a freakish outlier compared to the others of this group as his Stamina points mostly came from the Professional category: he had 11 whereas the next highest had 6.

Also having a huge points total in the Professional category (11) was Rekindling. He was the winner with the lowest gap between Speed (16) and Stamina (18) so far this century. One could argue his victory also had a lot to do with him receiving a handicap that was too friendly.

I liked Ispolini going into this profile but now I'm not so sure. I certainly don't like his Conduit Mare figures. I also think he would have been better suited by a local run or two. If he brings his Meydan form he's certainly not without hope, but it seems likelier that he'll be 5-7 lengths or so off the pace, given his last couple of runs. Horses have finished 3rd through 17th within that range, so it depends on your faith in 'the system' as to where you think he'll end up.

walkermac

17th October 2019, 12:38 AM

Wolfe and Top Of The Range finish 1-2 in the Coongy Cup. Wolfe consequently wins his way into the Caulfield Cup this weekend - where he's 7 rating points lower than anyone else. His winnings today also look to have bumped him up to around 53rd in the Order; Top Of The Range may have crept into 54th.

Racing this Saturday:

<table><tbody><tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>13</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>49</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>10</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>24</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GOLD MOUNT (GB)</td><td>28</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>8</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>23</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>14</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>38</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>25</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>45</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>RED VERDON (USA)</td><td>26</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>15</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>34</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>35</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TRUE SELF (IRE)</td><td>41</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>36</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>57</td><td>Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>51</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>31</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>44</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>52</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>33</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>40</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>43</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>53</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>32</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

UselessBettor

17th October 2019, 06:26 AM

I am surprised at how low the current ranking is for a lot of those Caulfield cup runners. I guess they are avoiding any additional penalty.

walkermac

18th October 2019, 12:59 AM

https://dkgm08yz51nav.cloudfront.net/WEBFILES/1346449-490336.jpg

Constantinople
3yo B Colt
Galileo (IRE) - One Moment In Time (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]

8s: 2-4-1

The two past winners of the Melbourne Cup have been Northern Hemisphere 4 years olds. Here to make it three in a row is Constantinople.

Making it slightly tougher is a re-appraisal made by the handicapper. Following a review after last year's running, the benchmark for horses of this type was increased by one kilogram.

Rekindling went into the 2017 Cup with a 116 BHA Performance Rating in his race prior. He carried 51.5kg.

Cross Counter went into the 2018 Cup with a 114 BHA Performance Rating. He carried 50kg.

Constantinople's last race was awarded a 110 rating and he will carry 52.5kg. Making a direct comparison to the two prior victors, their rating going into the race and what they actually carried, he should be handicapped 4-4.5kg less than he is. Per the handicapper, that equates to around 8-9 lengths over 3200m. That far back over the last two years would have seen him in 6th-9th position.

Constantinople is a growing horse early in his career though so it's possible that he will continue to improve over his next couple of races. It may be useful to look at the trajectory of those who continued to compete in Europe while he was in quarantine.

His final race was the Great Voltigeur Stakes a Group 2 for 3 year olds, held over 2400m (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TppLdv5FaGU). He finished a 1.75L second to Logician but the race wasn't rated terribly highly. The official British handicapper awarded a 115 to the winner: the second lowest figure to take out the race this century. More encouragingly, Logician would continue his undefeated series in his next race - the St Leger Stakes - and in track record time, to earn a 117 Rating. There's a little more to it than though... Handicapping is an art and the 117 was come to by looking at the ratings of the five previous winners. 117 was in the middle of that range: 114 to 120. While there is some argument that Logician should get the higher number (he broke the record after all) looking at his competitors, the distance they finished behind and the rating they had coming into the race, he could have been awarded as little as 111.

The third placegetter Nayef Road was particularly well exposed, having his 14th career start. He had a steady series of 4 races rating between 103 and 105 mid-campaign. The last of these was in beating Constantinople in the Gordon Stakes: Constantinople's second-to-last UK race. Nayef Road then jumped up to a 108 rating in his next, by virtue of his competitiors, in finishing a 13 lengths last.

So it's safe to say I have some doubts regarding his overseas form.

He's yet to race further than 2400m but his profiles appear he'll be up to the task. His Dosage Profile is (5-6-25-12-0) with DI of 0.96 and CD of 0.08, looking pretty ideal for 3200m. His Conduit Mare Profile is (2-7-2-11-7) with Speed 9, Stamina 18, Conduit Index 0.48, and Triads (11-20-20). Perhaps lacking in some top-end speed there but again, no concerns about making the distance.

There's every chance he's improved since coming to Australia and it's good that we'll get the opportunity to see if that's the case in the Caulfield Cup. With the information at hand though, I'm inclined to believe he finishes in the lower half of the Top 10.

evajb001

18th October 2019, 09:58 AM

I was looking through to race/market earlier this week as I wanted to do some futures multi's for a bit of fun if they make it through to Cup day. Really the only runners standing out for me at the moment are Ispolini, Master of Reality, Raymond Tusk and Southern France. It's hard to get too excited about most others at the moment. I think a few runners have been overbet in the leadup such as surprise baby, constantinople and finche - I think these three will find it much harder cup day.

Going by the writeups you've completed so far it would appear you somewhat agree that there aren't many/any standouts at the moment - is it possible this year could be another boilover?

UselessBettor

18th October 2019, 06:15 PM

Going by the writeups you've completed so far it would appear you somewhat agree that there aren't many/any standouts at the moment - is it possible this year could be another boilover?

Doubt it. This happens every year. The only reason there was a boilover a few years ago was due to a major jockey mistake (arrogance) which took out more than half the field.

https://www.racing.com/videos/2019-08-23/1-michelle-payne-2015-melbourne-cup

Fast forward to 3 mins and watch all the runners who were going to run on be taken out. I count 13 horses impacted and most were in the top chances.

I agree its just ad luck and that riding at the back of the pack causes bad luck to have a higher impact but it was still the action which caused the boilover. I still think the winner will come this year in the top chances in the market.

evajb001

18th October 2019, 06:51 PM

Boilover probably wasn't the right word, but I can picture the winner being in the $15 - $31 range this year for some reason. I just don't really like the current favourites that much and I can almost guarantee whatever wins the caulfield cup, if its a melb cup runner it will come in heavily but not win the melb cup.

UselessBettor

18th October 2019, 09:21 PM

walkermac

20th October 2019, 12:18 AM

Yeah, what UB said. No standouts just means more candidates in the $11-$31 range.

Here's todays results from Cup nominees:

<table><tbody><tr><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN)</td><td>60</td><td>1st of 18</td><td>0L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$8</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>36</td><td>2nd of 18</td><td>1L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$8</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>8</td><td>3rd of 18</td><td>1.2L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$16</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>10</td><td>4th of 18</td><td>1.4L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$6.5</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>24</td><td>5th of 18</td><td>1.6L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$7.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>14</td><td>6th of 18</td><td>1.8L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$12</td></tr> <tr><td>RED VERDON (USA)</td><td>26</td><td>8th of 18</td><td>3.8L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$71</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>35</td><td>9th of 18</td><td>3.9L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$13</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>34</td><td>10th of 18</td><td>4L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$101</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>23</td><td>11th of 18</td><td>4.2L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$8</td></tr> <tr><td>GOLD MOUNT (GB)</td><td>28</td><td>12th of 18</td><td>4.4L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>57</td><td>13th of 18</td><td>5.4L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$21</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>49</td><td>14th of 18</td><td>5.5L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>13</td><td>15th of 18</td><td>5.6L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$41</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>15</td><td>16th of 18</td><td>7.1L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>25</td><td>17th of 18</td><td>7.5L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$41</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>31</td><td>18th of 18</td><td>99L</td><td>CAUL</td><td>2400m Good3 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000</td><td>@$41</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>52</td><td>1st of 11</td><td>0L</td><td>RAND</td><td>2600m Good3 ST LEGER $501,500</td><td>@$6</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>32</td><td>3rd of 11</td><td>2.5L</td><td>RAND</td><td>2600m Good3 ST LEGER $501,500</td><td>@$6.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>43</td><td>3rd of 11</td><td>2.5L</td><td>RAND</td><td>2600m Good3 ST LEGER $501,500</td><td>@$10</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>51</td><td>5th of 11</td><td>2.7L</td><td>RAND</td><td>2600m Good3 ST LEGER $501,500</td><td>@$13</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>40</td><td>6th of 11</td><td>2.8L</td><td>RAND</td><td>2600m Good3 ST LEGER $501,500</td><td>@$19</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>44</td><td>8th of 11</td><td>3.3L</td><td>RAND</td><td>2600m Good3 ST LEGER $501,500</td><td>@$4.6</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>53</td><td>11th of 11</td><td>7.5L</td><td>RAND</td><td>2600m Good3 ST LEGER $501,500</td><td>@$21</td></tr></tbody></table>

UselessBettor

20th October 2019, 08:12 AM

The 3L rule will cut out a lot of those horses from the cup selection system.

Will be interesting to see the new table when you get time.

walkermac

20th October 2019, 06:58 PM

Will be interesting to see the new table when you get time.I'll post it tomorrow when the new Order of Entry should come out and once we hear whether Mer de Glace gets any penalty (not that that should make a difference).

As a sneak peak: unless their odds change in the meantime, joining Ispolini, Finche and Surprise Baby on max points will be Constantinople, Mustajeer and Vow and Declare.

walkermac

20th October 2019, 08:16 PM

Did we finally see the form franking race ahead of the Melbourne Cup?! No, not the Caulfield Cup! The Long Distance Cup held at Ascot overnight. Kew Gardens and Stradivarius were in a battle royale: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g4bPQSAiM8. Stradivarius takes the lead and looks like he'll run away but Kew Gardens won't lie down, fights back and beats him in a photo.

An enduring criticism of Stradivarius - despite winning every contest since coming 2nd to Order of St George in the 2017 running of the very same race - is that he never puts his opposition away. 9 of those 10 victories were inside of two lengths; the biggest win just 3 lengths. While there's no shame in getting beaten by Stradivarius, the margin often doesn't give a fair indication of his combatants' efforts. Even in this race, he makes up the two lengths he's behind early on in the straight, but that strong move stops once he knows that he's hit the lead. Kew Gardens then pushes him along, they both draw away from the rest of the runners and either Stradivarius tires slightly when finally being stretched in this manner, else it's a lucky bob.

This race was only moved to Ascot in 2011 so it's hard to do much in the way of time analysis, but it's the fastest since that inaugural running (which was on Good, whereas the track grading here was changed to Soft after this race). 3rd place was 5 lengths back , 4th 6 lengths adrift and the rest 10 lengths and beyond.

So instead of looking at horses who went up against Stradivarius to determine form, how about looking at those in relation to Kew Gardens? Unfortunately Kew Gardens suffered an injury following the Coronation Cup and missed around 3 months of the European season. In that race he ran up to his career high, finishing 0.5L behind Defoe.

He returned for the St Leger but his trainer Aidan O'Brien claimed that he "barely made it back" in time. Still, he finished ahead of Southern France (1.5L), Cross Counter (1.75L), Master of Reality (1.75L), Latrobe (3.25L) and Twilight Payment (4L); second only to Search For A Song, the 3yo filly the field let get out to a huge lead who ran on. Racing Post rated his run 5 points below that in the Coronation Cup and 6 below that in the Long Distance Cup, so while it might be a good race to compare the other runners to each other (all at equal weights) it might be inaccurate to compare them to Kew Gardens' better performances.

Looking back at the Coronation Cup, Marmelo is worryingly a 9 length 5th - though there is a race comment that he was held up and 2400m is less than ideal for him. Following the winner Defoe though, he goes from the Coronation Cup to the Hardwicke Stakes. Racing Post give him just 1 rating point lower in that than for his previous. Who's finishing in third? It's yesterday's third placegetter in the Caulfield Cup at $16: Mirage Dancer. (....and an 8-length 6th is Southern France).

So maybe the top-6 in the Caulfield Cup (who all finished within 2 lengths of the winner) are going pretty alright. They're all doing quite well per 'the system'. Only Mer de Glace (more than 5 career wins) and Mirage Dancer ($16 or greater in their previous race) lose any possible points. Their ability over distance could be a differentiating factor though: Finche we know about, Vow And Declare has convincingly won a Group 3000m earlier this year and Mustajeer won the Ebor Cup over 2800m. The rest haven't run beyond 2400m.

walkermac

21st October 2019, 12:42 PM

Gold Mount out of the Cup. Found to be lame after the Caulfield Cup.

Today's Order of Entry is here, but he's still on the list in 29th position: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-as-at-oct-21.

Mer de Glace has received a 1kg penalty.

walkermac

21st October 2019, 02:10 PM

Here is the current standings in 'the system'.

Following the 1kg penalty Mer de Glace drops a point as he's no longer weighted less than what he carried in his preceding race.

Third declarations are due next Monday.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Order</td><td>Total</td><td>Less than 8yo</td><td>Wgt < 57kg</td><td>Not a mare</td><td><= $21 SP</td><td>< $16 in last</td><td>Wgtd < than in last</td><td>FS in last >= 10</td><td>Won Black Type</td><td><=3L in last</td><td><6 victories</td></tr> <tr><td>ISPOLINI (GB)</td><td>17</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>10</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>23</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>15</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>30</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>1=</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)</td><td>11</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)</td><td>28</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>52</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>7</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>8</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>38</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)</td><td>21</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>LATROBE (IRE)</td><td>13</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MARMELO (GB)</td><td>6</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE)</td><td>9</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>39</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>42</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>34</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>43</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN)</td><td>1=</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>51</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>33</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>54=</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>IL PARADISO (USA)</td><td>12</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>5</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>CROSS COUNTER (GB)</td><td>4</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>37</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>25</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>44</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>29</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TRUE SELF (IRE)</td><td>41</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>49</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>14</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>48</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>16</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>36</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>YUCATAN (IRE)</td><td>22</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>24</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>54=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>50</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)</td><td>56</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>45</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>20</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE)</td><td>19</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>46</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>GLORY DAYS (NZ)</td><td>31</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>RED VERDON (USA)</td><td>26</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>35</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>18</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>40</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>QAFILA</td><td>27</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>47</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>YTPFBC
</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>BIG DUKE (IRE)</td><td>32</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>53</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>58</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>WOLFE (JPN)</td><td>57</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>

UselessBettor

21st October 2019, 09:18 PM

Thanks for the updated table.

Looks fairly crowded up the top. That could mean a very competitive race this year but I think that is good. I prefer to dutch when there are a good number of chances as its more likely to be one of those horses.

Will definitely be an interesting race this year.

walkermac

22nd October 2019, 11:09 AM

I understand that if your in the top 15. But 27th is crazy and very likely to miss out.Raymond Tusk is edging closer... He dropped down to 28th following the Caulfield Cup win by Mer de Glace which granted that horse ballot exemption, but has now risen to 26th following some dropouts.

Red Verdon<sup>26</sup> is out with a leg injury. Following his 8th in the Caulfield Cup he was found to have superficial abrasions on 3 of his legs. They did a bone scan test to be safe and found a tiny fracture that could develop into something far worse. This is the second year running where he's come out for the Cup and had to be withdrawn through injury.

Qafila<sup>27</sup> is also not continuing on to the Cup per his stable, following his 17th placing at Caulfield.

The final field is out for the Cox Plate:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Number</td><td>Horse</td><td>Melbourne Cup Order</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>BLACK HEART BART </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>AVILIUS (GB) </td><td>5</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>KLUGER (JPN) </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>HARLEM (GB) </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>HOMESMAN (USA) </td><td>7</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE) </td><td>39</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>TE AKAU SHARK (NZ) </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>DANCETERIA (FR) </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>LYS GRACIEUX (JPN) </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE) </td><td>19</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (IRE) </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>MYSTIC JOURNEY </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>13</td><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) </td><td>18</td></tr> <tr><td>14</td><td>CASTELVECCHIO </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>15e</td><td>HUMIDOR (NZ) </td><td>YTPFBC</td></tr> <tr><td>16e</td><td>MR QUICKIE </td><td>25</td></tr> <tr><td>17e</td><td>GAILO CHOP (FR) </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>18e</td><td>DREAM CASTLE (GB)</td></tr></tbody></table>

The winner gets a ballot exemption for the Cup. Minor placegetters pass the first ballot clause.

It's a shame Humidor didn't make the final field - Winx retires and he doesn't get a chance to win it with her gone! He'll likely contest the Moonee Valley Gold Cup instead: which is probably going to be easier to qualify via, to be honest.

The Geelong Cup is tomorrow and the following nominees will be running:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>46</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>47</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>48</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>24</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>34</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>38</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>45</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1=</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>54=</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TRUE SELF (IRE)</td><td>41</td><td>bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

evajb001

22nd October 2019, 11:45 AM

*Only* 13 horses in the top 24 order of entry are actually within the top scoring levels in walkermac's table (i.e. scoring 10, 9 or 8). Obviously things can change a bit but if you want to be really strict and only look at horses within those scoring levels it helps eliminate half the field which is quite handy.

On top of that if you eliminate a few runners based on how they are weighted vs their rating and/or appear to be a little overbet then you can narrow things down quite a bit. For example if you look at the current Melb Cup futures a lot of the Caulfield Cup placegettors have had their prices brought right in. In addition Constantinople is now the clear fave when it has some solid hurdles infront of it in terms of weight vs rating which walkermac has highlighted.

I find myself looking more at Vow and Declare and Mirage Dancer after the caulfield cup.

walkermac

23rd October 2019, 08:31 PM

Results from today's Geelong Cup (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ1XfgvsESk):

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>36</td><td>1st of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$4.2</td></tr> <tr><td>TRUE SELF (IRE)</td><td>39</td><td>2nd of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$4.6</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>46</td><td>3rd of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>RED CARDINAL (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>4th of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>43</td><td>5th of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$13</td></tr> <tr><td>SUPERNOVA (GB)</td><td>52=</td><td>6th of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$5.5</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1=</td><td>7th of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$6</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>45</td><td>8th of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$21</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>32</td><td>9th of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>44</td><td>10th of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$10</td></tr> <tr><td>MUNTAHAA (IRE)</td><td>24</td><td>11th of 11</td><td></td><td>GEEL</td><td>2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td></td><td>@$101</td></tr></tbody></table>
Things went to script for Prince Of Arran with his connections publicly begging the handicapper for a weight penalty after taking out the race. Just 0.5kg will shift him up to around 29th; 1kg will leave him about 23rd in the Order. I think there's a chance of 4 or 5 of the current top 24 not going on to contest the Cup, so he'll be hoping for not only a penalty of some sort, but also some surety after third declarations next week.

Cup nominees running this Saturday (Humidor and Mr Quickie are both also emergencies for the Cox Plate):

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>56</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:55PM CLUBSNSW CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB CUP (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:55PM CLUBSNSW CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB CUP (2400 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>The Valley - Race 7 - 3:35PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>35</td><td>The Valley - Race 7 - 3:35PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>48</td><td>The Valley - Race 7 - 3:35PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)*</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>The Valley - Race 7 - 3:35PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>20</td><td>The Valley - Race 7 - 3:35PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE*</td><td>25</td><td>The Valley - Race 7 - 3:35PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>27</td><td>The Valley - Race 7 - 3:35PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>52=</td><td>The Valley - Race 7 - 3:35PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)</td><td>54</td><td>The Valley - Race 7 - 3:35PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>5</td><td>The Valley - Race 9 - 4:55PM Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>7</td><td>The Valley - Race 9 - 4:55PM Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>37</td><td>The Valley - Race 9 - 4:55PM Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE)</td><td>19</td><td>The Valley - Race 9 - 4:55PM Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>18</td><td>The Valley - Race 9 - 4:55PM Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

24th October 2019, 12:21 AM

http://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/UserFiles/Image/Royal%20Ascot%202018%2FMagic%20Wand%20Ribblesdale%20LK.jpg

Magic Wand
4yo B Filly
Galileo (IRE) - Prudenzia (IRE) [By Dansili (GB)]

18s: 2-7-2

Magic Wand certainly doesn't make a habit of winning, with only 2 victories across her 18 starts. Each of these were mid last year in sex and age-restricted company. 0 wins from 10 Group 1s makes for worrying reading. Though her trainer contends that's due to the quality of her opposition, rather than lack of ability on her part.

She has certainly shown some good spirit in being amongst the placings for a lot of her runs. In her current campaign - a series of 7 races thus far that stretches back to March and will continue this weekend with the Cox Plate and thence to the Melbourne Cup - she's only missed a podium finish twice. In those misses she really bombed: pulling out of the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes and finishing 10 lengths adrift in the Dubai Sheema Classic.

Magic Wand has just had the one qualifying performance: the 2018 G1 Prix Vermeille in which she came 2nd (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMdeXPTXwls). Showing some impressive speed in the straight, she was narrowly beaten by Kitesurf (who was up against Marmelo two races earlier, going down there by 2.75L while carrying 1.5kg less over 2800m. Kitesurf went on to the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes where Magical beat her by 5 lengths; arguably about square given that Kitesurf was carrying 3kg more).

Though Magic Wand qualified via that race, she's pretty much coming because of her results in another: in the Irish Champion Stakes she finished 2.25L behind Magical at equal weights (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqdcNvXb1po).

Magical has been a very consistent and high-achieving runner. She's not been far off stars Enable and Crystal Ocean this season, with her official handicap hovering around 122-123 across all runs. Given Magic Wand's official handicap going into the Champion Stakes was 111, connections would have been stoked with her performance. Perhaps just as much by also edging out Anthony Van Dyck with his 118 handicap (carrying 1.5kg less than the first two). Magic Wand's handicap was bumped up to 114 but if this race was indicative of future performances, then it may have been underestimated. She's currently weighted to her rating in the Cup, but this was probably a 121-performance: potentially leaving her with a very friendly handicap.

It was a race over 2000m though, a distance where she may have no wins, but does hold a 6-from-6 place rate. At longer distances it's a little more spotty. Up to 2400m - the furthest she's raced - it's 1 win & 1 place from 6 attempts. Her record also seems to imply she's better on solid ground, so might bear watching given the forecast rain this weekend.

The other race of hers worth examining is also over 2000m. In the Wolferton Stakes she finished just ahead of Latrobe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEkwgqn0NQQ. Though it's probably a little on the short side for him, it goes to show that he wouldn't want to give Magic Wand a headstart in the Cup.

The winner of that race, Addeybb, just finished 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes last weekend, with Anthony Van Dyck in 3rd. The form is franked; but whether the form can be reproduced, is the question.

Lending further weight to her trainer's argument that her poor win record is due to the quality of her opposition: in the US she had a couple of 2nd places to Bricks And Mortar, who looks to be a candidate for the American Horse of the Year. He's 5 wins from 5 starts this year, with 4 of those coming at Group 1 level. He's also rated at 120 in the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings, which makes him the second-highest-rated U.S.-based horse. His breeding rights were recently sold to Shadai Farm in Japan, who were looking to replace Deep Impact. In Magic Wand's most recent race against Bricks and Mortar she carried 1.5kg less (i.e. less than the 2kg mare's allowance) and finished within a length, the time within a second of the race record and the fastest for nearly 25 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io0PLy6rhzc

Travel shouldn't be a bother. She's done a fair bit for her age: Ireland, England, France, USA 3 times, UAE and now to Australia.

Her ability over the distance seems the real concern, given her performance record. Looking at her figures it appears that she should do fine though. Her Dosage Profile is (3-4-19-12-0) with DI 0.77 and CD of -0.05. That's all very similar to Marmelo. Her Conduit Mare Profile is (5-7-1-10-10), with Speed 12, Stamina 20, Index of 0.58 and Triads (13-18-21), which again is quite similar to Marmelo's only even more suited to further, given the points in the Professional category.

She's currently languishing towards the bottom of the table per 'the system' though that will likely change this weekend. Magic Wand is going to remain a mare (so will miss a point there) but she'll definitely pick up some others. The field size will be greater than 10 (+1), she's currently at $14 in Cox Plate betting (if it stays under $16, as you'd expect after emergencies are ruled out, then that's another +1) and were she to do well on Saturday her Melbourne Cup price will definitely shorten from the current $41 (+1 if she finishes up <= $21; which is closer to her true odds IMO). Suddenly she's on 9 points - and is in the half of the field the winner is likely to come from (I'm not sure the system will be much help this year! :D )

I think she's a great prospect this weekend with her first up record, her past performances over the distance and how she could compare very favourably to others on her peak effort. The issue might again be the quality of her opposition.... Still, at this very moment, I'd have her among those whom I'm most interested in for the Cup.

walkermac

24th October 2019, 10:41 AM

Prince Of Arran has been given a 1kg penalty after winning the Geelong Cup. I wonder what the result would have been had he not placed in last year's Melbourne Cup and been in danger of missing this field....?

The Geelong Cup winner has earned a weight penalty the past 13 years. And I know this because Racing Victoria have released the list, presumably as defense of the decision: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/melbourne-cup-penalties-to-geelong-cup-winners-since-1980

I think he was pretty lucky. It looks like they may have based it on his finish with respect to Red Cardinal and Red Galileo, neither of whom are going to be in the Cup. It wasn't based on True Self: despite her finishing within 0.2L, Prince of Arran now carries 1kg more (were True Self to make the Cup - and she almost definitely won't).

The only other runners that were there and still in line to contest the Cup now (save for winning exemption through the Hotham Handicap on Saturday week) were Steel Prince (who looked to just treat it as a conditioning run back in 8th) and Muntahaa. Somehow - despite finishing last in each of his 4 races since the 2018 Melbourne Cup - Muntahaa is 25th in the Order. Hopefully they don't pay for third acceptance (due this Monday). If they don't drop out then surely the organisers must use their powers to turf him out themselves. Prince of Arran certainly deserves to be there ahead of him, though several others may feel aggrieved about it, having been leapt also.

Prince of Arran now moved into 23rd in the Order of Entry, per the updated list: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-as-at-oct-24.
(https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/the-sport/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-as-at-oct-24)

walkermac

24th October 2019, 01:47 PM

Somehow - despite finishing last in each of his 4 races since the 2018 Melbourne Cup - Muntahaa is 25th in the Order. Hopefully they don't pay for third acceptance (due this Monday). If they don't drop out then surely the organisers must use their powers to turf him out themselvesMuntahaa is out. Gone for a spell. Hope he's OK but glad he's not taking the spot of a worthier candidate.

walkermac

25th October 2019, 12:55 AM

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/racing/horses/p/princeofarrangeelongcup_660x380rp.jpg

Prince Of Arran
6yo B Gelding
Shirocco (GER) - Storming Sioux (GB) [By Storming Home (GB)]

37s: 6-7-5

Though Prince Of Arran is returning for the Cup this year, this is the first time I've written a profile on him. I was pressed for time on Cup-eve last year and he was one of the few I skipped. I figured that he'd be too fatigued from the Hotham Handicap win that got him into the field to do well. He, of course, went on to run third. I missed picking him as a candidate, but the all-powerful 'system' had him right up there....

He finished two lengths behind Marmelo in 2018, with Cross Counter a further length in front. There was 2kg officially between Marmelo's and Prince Of Arran's handicaps but Hugh Bowman, jockey of the former, weighed one kilo over - so there was really a 3kg discrepancy. Following the Prince's penalty from the Geelong Cup victory yesterday (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OlSi8tajzw), the weight difference will be 2kg again this year. I've written about how it appears that Marmelo is doing just as well as he was last year, so the question with regards to Prince Of Arran is: has he gotten four lengths better? (the two lengths he lost by + the 1kg extra he'll be carrying this year compared to Marmelo).

The easy - but unhelpful - answer is: well, he won't have to run 2500m three days before the Cup this time! So: maybe. Probably. Ummm...surely?

His final race before leaving for Australia last year was in the Heritage Handicap. Per the British Handicapping Authority he ran a 111 BHA Performance Figure while having a 107 rating. Following his Australian success he then galloped across the globe, in Hong Kong and the UAE before returning to the UK. They bumped him up to a 110 rating on arrival but his two performances there were adjudged to be at 108 level (plus a shocker on resuming which can be discounted). Long story short: they think he's ballpark of where he was last year: somewhere between 3 points better by rating, and 3 points worse than his peak performance.

In Australia last season he got a 104 rating for the Herbert Power and Hotham Handicap and a 105 in the Cup. Following the Geelong Cup it looks like his interim handicap has been raised to 108. So they reckon he's 3 points better than he was here last year - only they rated him 3 points lower than his UK rating to begin with.

He's certainly seemed to have shown his best on Australian tracks (5s:2w-3p). He's contested the Herbert Power both years, so some comparison can be made. This year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnQEfIIoKH4) with 58kg he ran 2435m in 2'27.61s, with his last 3 200m sectionals in 12.06s, 11.64s, and 12.36s. Last year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4GojR1Bxew) he carried 1kg less and ran 2433m in 2'26.77s, with the last 3 sectionals in 11.60s, 11.37s, 11.56s. Last year's performance looks better, but perhaps it was more due to how the race unfolded, rather than a direct measure of performance...

There are a few concerning stats from his profile: 0 wins from 11 Group 1 and Group 2 starts; has only won on Good, or All-Weather back in 2015/16; has had 11 starts in fields greater than 13 for no wins and only 3 placings. All his wins have been at low prices: the highest was $8 all the rest were under $5. On the positive side: he does have a decent record at 3200m, with 1 win and 4 placings from 9 starts.

Looking at some pedigree stuff, his Dosage Profile is (2-0-7-4-1) with DI 0.65 and CD -0.14. No concerns with distance; he'd be suited to even longer. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-5-3-13-6) with Speed 10, Stamina 19, Index 0.64 and Triads (13-21-22). Again, no problems with the distance though only Ethereal has won the Cup this century with a higher Stamina number. There's a couple of other winners whom he looks quite alike though: Makybe Diva, has a very similar profile, though more Speed points; and Media Puzzle is closer still. Interestingly Media Puzzle did the Geelong Cup-Melbourne Cup double in 2002. He was penalised 1.5kg for his course record win and carried 52.5kg in the Melbourne Cup. I'd feel a little more confident if Prince Of Arran was carrying the same.

I think he'll make a good account of himself, but for mine, he's carrying a little too much and he's also lacking some brilliant speed (The Chosen One easily ran him down in the shorter Caulfield straight in the Herbert Power; though the danger of that happening again will depend on the make-up of the final field). In any case, I think those two things combined just knock him out of winning contention. Will almost definitely finish top-10 and likely higher rather than lower.

jose

25th October 2019, 11:51 AM

Really enjoying this thread walkermac.
Best on here ATM by a very long way.
Top job.

walkermac

26th October 2019, 01:20 AM

Cheers jose.

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Mustajeer-734x460.jpeg

Mustajeer
6yo B Gelding
Medicean (GB) - Qelaan (USA) [By Dynaformer (USA)]

20s: 4-3-3

Mustajeer won this year's renewal of the Ebor Handicap and it was a particularly strong race, given that the prizemoney had been increased to 1 million pounds. It was also the fastest run race since 1998, though the distance does seem to shuffle about slightly from year-to-year.

He was 10th in betting at $17, beating two at $26. Also in the large field of 22 runners were Melbourne Cup nominees Red Galileo<sup>42</sup>, Raymond Tusk<sup>26</sup>, True Self<sup>38</sup>, Prince Of Arran<sup>23</sup> and Raheen House<sup>39</sup>. Mustajeer ran from barrier 2 and stuck to the fence in a slightly worse than midfield position. On entering the straight, the field switched to the outside rail and Mustajeer basically had everyone move out of his way so that he could run on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5gkgBmRKAE. It was a charmed ride where he likely took the shortest route of the field. Consequently others were given more credit for their runs following the race. Foremost among these: Raymond Tusk who had a particularly rough time of it but finished well in 4th.

Leading up to the Ebor, Mustajeer had some pretty ordinary looking runs up against Magical, finishing 12 lengths behind in each. Both races were over 2000m though and he seemed to fare far better once the distance got up to the 2800m mark.

The first of these was the Vintage Crop stakes: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1122606753957470208. Mustajeer edges ahead of Master of Reality who then fights back to win by a neck. Southern France is 0.75L further back in 3rd position. Mustajeer was carrying 0.5kg more than both here, whereas he will carry 0.5kg less in the Cup. It should be noted though that Master of Reality and Southern France were both 1st up after 5-6 months off. Twilight Payment was also safely held, two lengths adrift with no weight change between this and the Cup.

Twilight Payment switched it up in their next tussle over 2800m, winning the Curragh Cup: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1144678404891058181. Again at level weights (62kg!), Mustajeer this time finished a 3.5L 5th. The difference may have been in the track surface with a Good here, and a Yielding in the other - Twilight Payment looks to prefer the former and perhaps Mustajeer the latter. Other notables in the same race were Latrobe (2nd nk) and Southern France (4th 3.25L).

Australian Bloodstock has bought him and were reported as saying he was their best Caulfield Cup chance. He went on to finish there a 1.8L 6th. From the start he drifted back towards the rear, as is his wont. Those running on from the rear looked to have some advantage with the 1st and 2nd finishers in 15th and 17th position for much of the race, before they came wide and made their move after the 800m. Mustajeer could have made the same move as that pair (Mer de Glace and Vow And Declare) but instead was held up by them and couldn't get going until there was too much left to do. Constantinople had pretty much the same chequered run and is the $7 Cup favourite. Admittedly he was effected slightly more and managed to quickly put half a length on Mustajeer (but then couldn't pull any further away). Mustajeer is at $19 and there isn't that much between the two. I reckon Constantinople is unders...

I don't think that Mustajeer is overs. I don't like how he tends to race at the rear, particularly given his figures. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-6-5-9-5), Speed = 11, Stamina = 14, Index = 0.88 and Triads of (16-20-19). Only Delta Blues and Americain have won this century with a Stamina figure that low. He's not going to race like Delta Blues did; maybe he has more of a(n Americain) chance if the track is Slow. In either case, both of those winners had better Brilliant figures to counter that lower Stamina. Also, the only winner this century with a higher Conduit Mare Index was Prince of Penzance (though he does tie with Americain: who had 4 straight victories leading into the Cup and had already raced at 3000m or longer 8 times; so little distance concerns there).

He doesn't really pique my interest. While the race may fall into his lap - like the Ebor did - I feel that there are better candidates to take it out. $21 seems about right to me.

walkermac

26th October 2019, 10:01 PM

Today's results from Cup nominees:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>20</td><td>1st of 8</td><td>M V</td><td>2500m Good4 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000</td><td>@$4.2</td></tr> <tr><td>MR QUICKIE</td><td>25</td><td>2nd of 8</td><td>M V</td><td>2500m Good4 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000</td><td>@$3.8</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>35</td><td>3rd of 8</td><td>M V</td><td>2500m Good4 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000</td><td>@$3.9</td></tr> <tr><td>HUMIDOR (NZ)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>4th of 8</td><td>M V</td><td>2500m Good4 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000</td><td>@$4.4</td></tr> <tr><td>SHRAAOH (IRE)</td><td>27</td><td>6th of 8</td><td>M V</td><td>2500m Good4 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>ALFARRIS (FR)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>7th of 8</td><td>M V</td><td>2500m Good4 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000</td><td>@$21</td></tr> <tr><td>ETYMOLOGY</td><td>47</td><td>8th of 8</td><td>M V</td><td>2500m Good4 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE)</td><td>19</td><td>4th of 14</td><td>M V</td><td>2040m Good4 COX PLATE Group 1 $5,050,000</td><td>@$9</td></tr> <tr><td>KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)</td><td>36</td><td>6th of 14</td><td>M V</td><td>2040m Good4 COX PLATE Group 1 $5,050,000</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>AVILIUS (GB)</td><td>5</td><td>7th of 14</td><td>M V</td><td>2040m Good4 COX PLATE Group 1 $5,050,000</td><td>@$13</td></tr> <tr><td>HOMESMAN (USA)</td><td>7</td><td>11th of 14</td><td>M V</td><td>2040m Good4 COX PLATE Group 1 $5,050,000</td><td>@$31</td></tr> <tr><td>VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)</td><td>18</td><td>12th of 14</td><td>M V</td><td>2040m Good4 COX PLATE Group 1 $5,050,000</td><td>@$21</td></tr> <tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF WINE (GER)</td><td>PFBC</td><td>1st of 10</td><td>RAND</td><td>2400m Good3 C-TATTS CUP Listed $141,000</td><td>@$2.25</td></tr> <tr><td>ATTENTION RUN (GER)</td><td>55</td><td>6th of 10</td><td>RAND</td><td>2400m Good3 C-TATTS CUP Listed $141,000</td><td>@$4.4</td></tr></tbody></table>

Will Hunting Horn get a penalty for this Melbourne Cup win? He'd hope not, given that he's already 20th in the Order of Entry. He's got an Irish handicap of 115; Downdraft has one of 110. Downdraft carried 0.5kg more at set weights, so Hunting Horn should have won by more than he actually did (putting aside the slow pace of the race, the short straight, etc). They've given that pair 109 and 106 ratings locally.

Mr Quickie (rated at 108 going into the race) was reported to either spell or go to the Mackinnon Stakes after his Moonee Valley Gold Cup run. His trainer has ruled him out of the Melbourne Cup; they don't think he can stay.

Master Of Wine passes the first ballot clause but won't be inside the current Top 50.

Third declarations must be made by 10am on Monday.

walkermac

27th October 2019, 09:14 PM

https://resource11.racingandsports.com.au/Photos/photogallery/large/2018/Horse-hunting-horn-120099-750x500.jpg

Hunting Horn
4yo B Horse
Camelot (GB) - Mora Bai (IRE) [By Indian Ridge (IRE)]

22s: 3-2-5

Hunting Horn took out yesterday's Moonee Valley Gold Cup. The track record was set last year by Ventura Storm; he came 10th in last year's Melbourne Cup. Who Shot Thebarman won in 2017; scratched from Cup. Grand Marshal won in 2016; 11th in Cup. The United States in 2015; 14th in Cup.

There are actually Melbourne Cup systems that include "did not win the Moonee Valley Cup" as a filter. Aspro's Melbourne Cup System has been posted to Racing & Sports each year:
Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day)
Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run
Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner
Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run.
Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older.

That system hasn't done so well the last couple of years as it's skewed to determine the best local contenders, omitting the foreign raiders debuting in the Cup itself. This year only Downdraft would qualify through the race - and then only if they're lucky with acceptances falling their way.

Hunting Horn has very much been Magic Wand's shadow. Most often competing on the same program, if not contesting the same race; as was the case yesterday when Magic Wand was also at the Valley and finished 4th in the Cox Plate. Hunting Horn tends to go in 2400m races with Magic Wand around 2000m.

When they have gone head-to-head, Magic Wand has the supremacy in the shorter distances and Hunting Horn the longer:
11Aug - 2000m: Magic Wand - 2nd 2.25L, Hunting Horn - 8th 11L
14Sep - 2000m: Magic Wand - 2nd 2.25L, Hunting Horn - 8th 7.45L
11May - 2200m: Magic Wand - 3rd 0.75L, Hunting Horn - 4th 1L
27Jul - 2400m: Hunting Horn - 5th 9.55L, Magic Wand - 11th 50.45L
30Mar - 2400m: Hunting Horn - 4th 10.25L, Magic Wand - 5th 10.35L

Hunting Horn carried 1.5kg extra in all bar the last, which was a 2kg difference.

Yesterday's run was the furthest he's travelled. His two previous wins were over the 2000m. While not winning over 2400m he had an OK record: 0 wins and 4 places from 8 starts.

It was also the 10th run of his current campaign, which stretches all the way back to January of this year. He hadn't won any of his preceding 14 races, though 11 of these were at Group 1 level . The trick is to put Ryan Moore aboard: he's the only jockey to ever win on him (8 starts for 3 wins and 3 places).

His Dosage Profile is (2-13-12-8-1) with DI 1.4 and CD 0.19, so about 3000m looks ideal there. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-4-3-8-8) with Speed 9, Stamina 16, Index 0.63, and Triads (12-15-19). Which looks suited to around about the same.

Yesterday was a very slow-run race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hCB3c7XjWU. It was 5 seconds slower than Ventura Storm's effort of 2018 (who was also in the field this year). What wasn't slow was the last 600m, which was nearly 2 seconds quicker than 2018.

Given the pace of the race, it says very little about these horses' staying ability. With no-one making a move from the rear until it's too late, it was pretty much just a contest between the first four runners. Though Hunting Horn has a 109 Australian rating, the Irish official ratings have him at 115. Shraaoh (107), Mr Quickie (108) and Ventura Storm (102) were going to do it pretty tough - particularly when Hunting Horn carried as much or up to 1kg less than all of these! I'd hope to have seen a Mer de Glace level of acceleration with that kind of discrepancy.

Since the Moonee Valley Gold Cup is a useless form guide, how about some other races? Discounting anything under 2400m...

If the Chester Vase Stakes hadn't happened so long ago (May 2018, as a 3yo) it would have been helpful. In that race over 2400m he was 3L behind Dee Ex Bee and 0.5L in front of Ispolini. Hunting Horn and Ispolini are currently at equal weights in the Cup, but any penalty for yesterday's win will be announced tomorrow. I'll doubt he'll get anything.

Earlier this year he was in the Amir Trophy in Doha against Raymond Tusk, beating him by a length: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHXVKFhY7Ec. He outpaces Raymond Tusk in the straight - who did a little more work in his run - but the latter will get 1kg back in the Cup.

A month after that he and Magic Wand were up against each other in the Dubai Sheema Classic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnucwtMz1Y. Hunting Horn edges out Magic Wand despite being a rank outsider, carrying 2kg more and less suited to the distance. Magic Wand was first up though. They were both 10 lengths back from Old Persian, who left them in his dust with the 300m to go.

This is a long post, not so much cause there's plenty to say, moreso that there isn't a whole lot of substance to go on. I'm inclined to think that Hunting Horn is a couple of classes below Europe's top runners and that there's a couple of others in the Cup field who have accounted themselves against those better. He races forward, should get the distance but - with that 55kg weight (so far) - I'd hope that he was a bit more accomplished than having just 3 wins from 22: none of those at Group 1 level and his only one at Group 2 level being in an extremely week race. I guesstimate that he finishes somewhere between 10th and 15th.

walkermac

28th October 2019, 01:33 PM

Third acceptances were due this morning for Melbourne Cup nominees. 42 remain in the hunt to be among the 24 that line up on racing day. The current Order of Entry is available here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2019-rv/news/files/2019-lexus-melbourne-cup-order-of-entry-as-at-oct-28

Final acceptances will be taken this Saturday and then the top 35 of those remaining will undergo a vet check to see if they'll be right to race on the following Tuesday.

Dropping out at this stage are:
ALFARRIS (FR)
ATTENTION RUN (GER)
AVILIUS (GB)
BIG DUKE (IRE)
ETYMOLOGY
GLORY DAYS (NZ)
HOMESMAN (USA)
HUMIDOR (NZ)
KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)
MASTER OF WINE (GER)
MR QUICKIE
RED CARDINAL (IRE)
SHRAAOH (IRE)
SUPERNOVA (GB)
TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
WOLFE (JPN)
YUCATAN (IRE)

There are two remaining chances for those currently aside the Top 24 (asides from those above them dropping out through illness/injury).

The first of these is Wednesday's Bendigo Cup. There's a chance to earn a penalty or earn enough prizemoney to leap ahead of others. Those Cup nominees who have accepted for the race:
ANGEL OF TRUTH<sup>12</sup>
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)<sup>37</sup> - needs 2kg penalty
PATRICK ERIN (NZ)<sup>28</sup> - needs 0.5kg penalty
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)<sup>30</sup> - needs 1kg penalty
SULLY (NZ)<sup>41</sup> - needs 3.5kg penalty

Acceptances for this race were due ahead of the release of the new Order of Entry.

The final chance for nominees is the Hotham Handicap/Lexus Stakes this Saturday, where the winner will receive the final ballot exemption. 28 have nominated for the race so far. Prizemoney for 2nd or worse won't be enough for those on the same handicap as 24th-placed Neufbosc to progress. It will be win and you're in.

Nominations close for this race on Wednesday at noon. Of those who have accepted for the Ballarat Cup: Brimham Rocks and Patrick Erin have already nominated (as has Angel of Truth, who is safely in the field and will probably just run at Ballarat for a tune-up if at all). Neither Raheen House or Sully are yet to nominate. Sully will have to run in the Hotham and cop the Ballarat Cup scratching fee; perhaps Raheen House will try their luck at Ballarat given the smaller task. Only 18 will make the final field of the Hotham, so that may make some decisions. There's only 4 hours between acceptances for the Hotham being announced and the start of the Ballarat Cup.

As anticipated, Hunting Horn did not receive a penalty for his win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Nor did Master of Wine for his first ballot clause passing-win in the Tattersalls Cup.

walkermac

28th October 2019, 01:48 PM

Here's the current standings in 'the system'. The dropouts didn't make it any easier. The highest score to drop out was the lowermost '8' Master Of Wine... Only 5 nominees with a Conduit Mare Stamina figure of 17 remain (10 of the past 11 winners) in the final 24 starters so far.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Order</td><td>Total</td><td>Less than 8yo</td><td>Wgt < 57kg</td><td>Not a mare</td><td><= $21 SP</td><td>< $16 in last</td><td>Wgtd < than in last</td><td>FS in last >= 10</td><td>Won Black Type</td><td><=3L in last</td><td><6 victories</td></tr> <tr><td>ISPOLINI (GB)</td><td>16</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>8</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>20</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>13</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>22</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>1=</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)</td><td>21</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>LATROBE (IRE)</td><td>11</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE)</td><td>7</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>39</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>14</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>19</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE)</td><td>17</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)</td><td>18</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MARMELO (GB)</td><td>5</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>6</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>30</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>31</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN)</td><td>1=</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>38</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>23</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>IL PARADISO (USA)</td><td>10</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>CROSS COUNTER (GB)</td><td>4</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>32</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>37</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>12</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>34</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>27</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>36</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>33</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>15</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1=</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>26</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TRUE SELF (IRE)</td><td>29</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>24</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>41</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>25</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>28</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>35</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>40</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>

evajb001

28th October 2019, 02:05 PM

walkermac,

Any chance you can add another column at the start which states your thoughts on whether the horse is weighted fairly or not compared to the horse ratings as you posted some time ago? Hope that isn't too much of a stuff around for you, and if it is then dont worry about it but just thought it may be handy.

Cheers

walkermac

28th October 2019, 06:15 PM

Any chance you can add another column at the start which states your thoughts on whether the horse is weighted fairly or not compared to the horse ratings as you posted some time ago? Hope that isn't too much of a stuff around for you, and if it is then dont worry about it but just thought it may be handy.It depends on which ratings you go off. For the horses shipped over here I've included their most recent overseas rating. A positive number indicates that they are carrying that weight above that which is indicated by their rating. So negative numbers are good. (Disclaimer: their rating isn't uniform across all race distances). Defending Champion Cross Counter is the base rater used.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td># in the Order</td><td>Aus Rating</td><td>Aus Ratings Diff (kg)
</td><td>Foreign Rating</td><td>Higher Rating Diff (kg)
</td></tr> <tr><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN)</td><td>1=</td><td>109</td><td>3</td><td>112</td><td>1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>1=</td><td>104</td><td>2</td><td></td><td>2</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>1=</td><td>104</td><td>3</td><td></td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>CROSS COUNTER (GB)</td><td>4</td><td></td><td></td><td>118</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MARMELO (GB)</td><td>5</td><td></td><td></td><td>114</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>6</td><td>110</td><td>2</td><td>115</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE)</td><td>7</td><td></td><td></td><td>113</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>8</td><td>109</td><td>-0.5</td><td>110</td><td>-1</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)</td><td>9</td><td></td><td></td><td>118</td><td>-2</td></tr> <tr><td>IL PARADISO (USA)</td><td>10</td><td></td><td></td><td>111</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>LATROBE (IRE)</td><td>11</td><td></td><td></td><td>112</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>12</td><td>106</td><td>2</td><td></td><td>2</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>13</td><td>109</td><td>2</td><td>114</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>14</td><td>109</td><td>2</td><td>115</td><td>-1</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>15</td><td>109</td><td>2</td><td></td><td>2</td></tr> <tr><td>ISPOLINI (GB)</td><td>16</td><td></td><td></td><td>115</td><td>-1</td></tr> <tr><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE)</td><td>17</td><td>114</td><td>0</td><td>114</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)</td><td>18</td><td></td><td></td><td>113</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>19</td><td>105</td><td>3</td><td>108</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>20</td><td>108</td><td>1.5</td><td></td><td>1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)</td><td>21</td><td></td><td></td><td>113</td><td>-1</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>22</td><td>102</td><td>2.5</td><td></td><td>2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>23</td><td>104</td><td>3.5</td><td></td><td>3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>24</td><td>105</td><td>2.5</td><td></td><td>2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>25</td><td>105</td><td>2.5</td><td></td><td>2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>26</td><td>103</td><td>2</td><td></td><td>2</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>27</td><td>106</td><td>2</td><td>110</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>28</td><td>103</td><td>3</td><td></td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>TRUE SELF (IRE)</td><td>29</td><td>106</td><td>2</td><td>108</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>30</td><td>105</td><td>2</td><td>111</td><td>-1</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>31</td><td>103</td><td>2.5</td><td></td><td>2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)</td><td>32</td><td>107</td><td>0.5</td><td></td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>RED GALILEO (GB)</td><td>33</td><td>104</td><td>2</td><td>113</td><td>-2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>DAL HARRAILD (GB)</td><td>34</td><td>104</td><td>2</td><td></td><td>2</td></tr> <tr><td>GREY LION (IRE)</td><td>35</td><td>104</td><td>2</td><td></td><td>2</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>36</td><td>103</td><td>2</td><td>108</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>37</td><td>103</td><td>1.5</td><td></td><td>1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>38</td><td>97</td><td>3.5</td><td></td><td>3.5</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>39</td><td>101</td><td>1</td><td></td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>40</td><td>93</td><td>5</td><td></td><td>5</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>41</td><td>98</td><td>2.5</td><td></td><td>2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>YTPFBC</td><td>95</td><td>4</td><td></td><td>4</td></tr></tbody></table>

walkermac

29th October 2019, 01:26 AM

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wp711452/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/10/19165219/thumbnail_Mer-De-GlaceCaulfield-CupGroup-1_19-10-2019_WIN_Caulfield_9__1340.jpg

Mer De Glace
4yo B/BR Horse
Rulership (JPN) - Glacier Blue (JPN) [By Sunday Silence (USA)]

18s: 8-2-5

Mer De Glace is on a streak of 6 victories that extends back to the start of the year and culminated in the Caulfield Cup. Caulfield Cup winners don't have a great record in the Melbourne Cup: only 11 horses have done the double in history. The last of these was Ethereal in 2001.

He's the current second favourite with perhaps the biggest question mark being his aptitude at the Cup distance. His 2400m Caulfield Cup win was actually the furthest distance over which he's competed. The bulk of his career, since turning 3, has been over either 2000m or 2200m.

Per his Dosage Profile (7-0-21-2-0), DI (1.4) and CD (0.4); he might be pushing it to get the distance. That looks like 2400m is ideal. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-5-7-11-2) with Speed 8, Stamina 13, Index 0.82 and Triads (15-23-20). That looks around 2000m is ideal.

That Stamina figure is lower than any other winner this century. There have been 26 runners with a figure of 13, they have an average finishing position of 14th with a best finish of 2nd (Yippyio in 2000). It's not so cut and dried though: there have been 4 placegetters with a Stamina figure even lower. One was Criterion in 2015, though that was an atypical sit and sprint dodgem derby. Another was Jardine's Lookout in 2003 4 lengths back in 3rd. And the final two were both from 2006, curiously also both with low Speed figures: Pop Rock (an omen?) and nearly 5 lengths back Maybe Better. I think the race type and field quality has moved on from the early-mid 2000s so I hold concerns over the distance.

His profile is very similar to that of Admire Rakti, who also won the Caulfield Cup - and had a sad end following the 2014 Melbourne Cup.... They both have a very low figure for the Professional category (i.e. the rightmost) in the Conduit Mare Profile. Only 9 of the 400+ horses who have contested the Cup this century have had a figure of 2 or lower. The best finish was 5th - and all of them had a Speed figure of at least 10 to counteract that somewhat.

All that being said: his Caulfield Cup win was pretty good. No other runner covered as much ground as he did, but he still powers comfortably to the lead in the straight and holds off the rest of the field: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4.

You can watch more vision of him here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6CRUmvHl-k. Looking a little closer, his Kokura Kinen run was the 4th slowest in the past 17 years. Both his Naruo Kinen and Niigata Kinen are of middling time. ...though not many of those runners compete outside of Japan to lend much in the way of comparison.

The 2nd placegetter in the Niigata Kinen, finishing 0.3L behind Mer De Glace, just ran the Group 1 Autumn Tenno Sho this past weekend and got smashed by 14 lengths. The horses we've tended to get here in Australia have contested (and generally done better) at the Tenno Sho. Mer De Glace's only Group 1 race is the Caulfield Cup, with all his other blacktype at Group 3 level.

Track surface is another area of concern. He'll be hoping it stays dry: only one run on Soft and it was no good. His sire has pretty abysmal wet weather stats for his offspring also. On a Good track Mer De Glace is 1w-1p/4s. On Firm is where he's been smashing it: 7w-6p/13s.

Damien Lane will be his jockey after striking up a profitable relationship with the horse (2w/2 for around $2million dollars prizemoney in Japan) and winning the trust of his trainer, who acquiesced to Lane's plea to bring Mer De Glace to Australia. He'll be well-rested for the Cup as he picked up a 10 meeting suspension for his ride at Caulfield, shifting in when not clear of another horse (Sound was badly effected).

If Mer De Glace was first up in the Cup I wouldn't rate him highly. His performance in the Caulfield Cup is the only thing lending me caution. Doing the double seems a particularly difficult ask for him though. He's carrying just 1.5kg less than Cross Counter and is rated 6-9 points lower, with those points earned at a distance to which he appears far better suited. I just can't have him among my top picks. I may end up looking silly(er) but I'm even inclined to think that he's more likely to finish in the 2nd half of the field than the first.

walkermac

29th October 2019, 08:41 PM

https://cdn.racenet.com.au/images/news/news_images/700w/raymond-tusk.jpg

Raymond Tusk
4yo B Horse
High Chaparral (IRE) - Dancing Shoes (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]

12s: 3-3-1

Raymond Tusk is a character in the US TV Series House of Cards, a billionaire industrialist with an interest in nuclear power. Is his horse namesake about to go thermonuclear in the Melbourne Cup?

He's a syndicated horse whose company decided to steer towards the Cup after fielding plenty of offers to purchase from Australian groups. They figured that Raymond Tusk must have something going for him, so elected to take him to Melbourne themselves. They made a tactical pass on the Caulfield Cup, trusting that natural attrition would be enough to scrape into the field. In the end, they're well in; currently lying at 21st in the Order of Entry.

Raymond Tusk has the 3rd lowest eligible winnings from those comprising the Top 24. The bulk of that prizemoney is from his sole Group-level win: in Milan. That was also his last victory - just 5 races ago - but a year and a day ago today. There were only 5 horses in the race and it wasn't a comprehensive victory: the first 3 finishing within 1 length. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrw7m6VvxZc. I'm not one for analysing a horse's action, but....that's a pretty impressive action he has.... It's hard to judge the quality of the race. The two placegetters were German horses with current ratings of 106 (+2.5kg) and 111 (+1kg). Raymond Tusk was a 3 year old and they were 1-2 years older. Third hasn't raced since; second finished 2nd in two Listed races in August.

He had a few months off before resuming in the Amir Trophy in Doha, which also featured Hunting Horn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHXVKFhY7Ec. Held over 2400m, Raymond Tusk finished 1.25L behind Hunting Horn at level weights; he'll carry 1kg less in the Cup. As noted in Hunting Horn's profile, he ran past Raymond Tusk easily enough in the straight.

Raymond Tusk returned to English shores and tried his luck in Group 1 company, finishing 2nd to Dee Ex Bee (3.25L) and then 3rd to Crystal Ocean (5L). In the former race, Raymond Tusk only lost contact in the last furlong of the 2 miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTB83JxeATo. Dee Ex Bee also went on to win his next race, then finish 2nd to Stradivarius in his following three Group 1s, a series of runs which also saw his rating go up 4 points. RT carried 2.5kg more than the winner in their race, so it was an impressive run all round.

In the second race Raymond Tusk went back to 2400m and Crystal Ocean put on a bit of a clinic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3hekfPUxHo. It was a deserved margin given the $1.20 starting price, and Raymond Tusk couldn't stay with him for the last 2 furlongs.

Next race was the 4000m Gold Cup: not only his longest contested distance, but also his first encounter with a Soft track. He finished 7th of 11, 8 lengths adrift: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB69t2__p9w. 7L ahead of him were fellow Melbourne Cup candidates Master of Reality and Cross Counter; though he will get back 1.5kg and 3.5kg respectively. I'm not sure his high knee lift running style would be suited to wet tracks either.... That performance was pretty much expected though, per a stable spokesman ahead of the race: "He is still 6lb short of Stradivarius. If somebody said to me he will finish within six lengths of him, I would take that now, because that might be third - but it could easily be sixth." After the race they agreed that he didn't stay out the trip and his opposition were too classy.

His current odds - now $18! - are pretty much due to his Ebor Cup results. The stable said the 2800m was far more suitable and his performance bore that out: drawn the carpark he raced towards the rear, then was held up in the straight from last position, but still ended up a 2-length 4th. He definitely had the best run in the race, in arguably the strongest Ebor run ever and in the fastest time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5gkgBmRKAE.

In the Melbourne Cup he gets 1.5kg back from Red Galileo (2nd 0.75L) and 2.5kg back from Mustajeer (1st). Prince Of Arran (+0.5kg) and Raheen House (-1kg) were well held and won't be weighted too dissimilar in the Cup. True Self got a friendly handicap though, only finishing 1 length further back and 2kg better off were he to win his way through the Hotham Handicap.

The stable reckoned 2800m was more his distance. Per his pedigree stats, his Dosage Profile is (3-8-34-4-1) with DI 1.27 and CD 0.16. That says around 3100m. His Conduit Mare Profile is (6-8-1-12-5) with Speed 14, Stamina 17, Index 0.91 and Triads (15-21-18). Say, around 2600m? 14 is the highest Speed figure left in the Cup field, though he shares that mark with Rostropovich, Ispolini and Neufbosc. His Stamina figure hits that magic number 17...

I don't mind him. He carries 1kg less than his rating says that he should. He meets many of those he's gone up against lately better at the weights. He has that 17 Stamina, survived my rejigged pedigree filtering, and has sighted the Cup distance. I would however, want him to be on a dry track and to be drawn well inside for a cushy run closer to the speed. His good Ebor run was 1st up after a 4 month spell and it's been just over 2 months since then, so that break ahead of the Cup shouldn't be too much of a problem. He does seem to be a just a smidge below the real high-flyers though and would need some things to go his way. Should include in trifectas and first fours, to my mind.

walkermac

30th October 2019, 12:28 AM

http://www.sportsnewsfirst.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Vow-and-Declare-2-945x579.jpg

Vow And Declare
4yo CH Gelding
Declaration of War (USA) - Geblitzt (AUS) [By Testa Rossa (AUS)]

12s: 3-3-2

The Great Australian Hope! Currently the 4th favourite at $12. Is patriotism shortening his odds? Or is he as genuine a chance as the price implies?

Vow And Declare first announced himself in the Queenland Derby, finishing within a length of Mr Quickie at odds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ckl403bn-I.

His rating rocketed from 73 to 85 - and then sped further to 99 following his performance as favourite in taking out the Tattersall's Cup, beating second placegetter Big Duke by 3 lengths as he sped down the straight: http://mediaatc.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2019/06/20190622EAFR06_V.mp4

That finished his Winter campaign and he resumed 3 months later in the Turnbull Stakes. He finished a close 4th (1.7L): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zAgHvA4stE with Kings Will Dream taking the victory and Finche just 0.1 lengths behind. Though only over 2000m, Vow And Declare will get back 1.5kg over Finche - who otherwise held him comfortably in the straight.

Vow And Declare's final race ahead of the big dance was the Caulfield Cup, where he ran on from worse than midfield to take out second position, 1 length behind Mer De Glace and just ahead of Mirage Dancer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkC7OfGgUbc. Swooping late he ran the fastest final 200m of the race, which surely must augur well for the 3200m distance.

Come Cup-eve his rating is 102. ....but he must carry 2.5kg greater than his rating would suggest (when compared to Cross Counter). On the positive side: he gets 1kg back vs Mer De Glace.

Per his Dosage Profile of (6-8-6-0-0), DI of 5.67 and CD of 1, he's not suited to long journeys at all. His Conduit Mare Profile again indicates that he's suited to far shorter: (5-8-2-9-5) with Speed 13, Stamina 14, Index 0.95 and Triads (15-19-16). No other horse has won a Melbourne Cup with an Index so high this century (the closest is Prince of Penzance with 0.92). Criterion in "crazy 2015" is the only horse to place this century with a Speed figure greater than Stamina. Only two others have placed with a 1 point discrepancy between the two: Jardines Lookout and Maybe Better were both 4+ length 3rds.

Of course all this pedigree stuff should be discounted when presented with evidence to the contrary and there's every indication thus far that Vow And Declare will make the distance comfortably. ...but how good is Big Duke now? That is: the horse he beat into 2nd place over 3000m. Big Duke has required a vet certificate to race again in each of his last two runs. That can't lend much confidence....

As much as I'd like Vow And Declare to be a real prospect, I think it more likely that he'll be scraping into the top 10.

walkermac

30th October 2019, 01:03 AM

I hadn't mentioned it earlier as I was waiting for further information, but there were some concerns regarding the fitness of Marmelo and Ispolini. They were sent for scans when soreness was detected by a Racing Victoria vet. The results of those scans were subsequently forwarded to their trainers - presumably so they could make some hard decisions or undertake further investigation prior to the "official" vet checks of the top Cup candidates this weekend.

I can understand that Racing Victoria are especially cautious regarding the physical capabilities of each potential runner. I think I remember reading that only one of the past 5 runnings of the Melbourne Cup hasn't had a runner that sadly died during or immediately after the race. If they can prevent such an occurence happening again by being hyper-viligant with the physical well-being of candidates, then I am all for it. If it's found to be of benefit, I would hope such vigilance is extended to every race on the calendar.

The issue is of particular relevance now given the recently publicised results of the ABC's investigation into retired horses and the increasing anti-Cup sentiment from the general public.

I have to admit: I have huge ethical concerns regarding the whole racehorse industry. I honestly would much prefer to be talking about humans participating in these races, than horses from whom we can't clearly ascertain whether they want to be involved or not. I don't have a background with horses at all and I'm mostly in love with the amount of data available. I've certainly learnt that horses are incredible athletes along the way, but the post-race future (or even pre-race existence) of thoroughbred horses is an issue that I'm not at all comfortable with.

That being said, I am very pleased to read of Hughie Morrison's confidence regarding Marmelo: "I didn't see having a scan as a problem," Morrison said. "We know this horse incredibly well. Tom (his handler) has ridden him since he was a baby. I have known him since he was a two-year-old.

"Tom, who has loved him for three years, said he is moving as well as ever and Hughie (Bowman) rode him today and said he worked better this time than he did this time last year.

"All roads lead to next Tuesday.

"He was x-rayed and cleared before he came and he was x-rayed last week. His x-rays showed no difference to this time last year and I think the CT scan, from what I have heard, I don't think it's significant.

"I think his form is probably on a similar level."

Similar news for the Godolphin pair who underwent scans, Cross Counter and Ispolini:

"We were very happy with both of them today," foreman Chris Connett said from Werribee. "We have been happy with them the whole trip.

"Regarding Cross Counter, he had a slight filling in his left front and on vet inspection by Grace Forbes, she was a little concerned.

"We took some x-rays, which we were happy with. We were invited to go for a standing CT, which we did on Saturday, and we have been passed clear. We are very happy with that.

"With regards to Ispolini, when he arrived here RV vet Grace Forbes was not exactly happy with his action and invited us to go for a standing CT.

"Those results have come back and the team back home are looking at those. He went for a scan yesterday (Monday) at Ballarat. When we get the results back from there the team back home and the vets here will have a discussion and decide what we want to do.

"They both look good to my eye. They haven't missed a day of training while they have been here. Their gallops have been good and at the moment we are full steam ahead.

"As long as we get the okay, they will work tomorrow."

walkermac

30th October 2019, 11:49 PM

A lot changes in a day...

Marmelo out. Ispolini out.

"Marmelo was referred to the University of Melbourne Equine Clinic to undergo a standing CT scan across the weekend after showing signs of soreness upon inspection by RV veterinarians.

"The results of the standing CT scan indicated an incomplete fracture in the horse’s near fore cannon bone and an incomplete fracture in its off hind cannon bone.

"Having considered the RV veterinary report, in addition to veterinary reports submitted by trainer Hughie Morrison, Stewards acting under AR20(d) have ordered the withdrawal of the horse from the Melbourne Cup."

"Ispolini was referred to the University of Melbourne Equine Clinic to undergo a standing CT scan across the weekend after showing signs of soreness upon inspection by RV veterinarians. The results of the standing CT scan indicated pre-fracture pathology within the horse’s right front cannon bone.

"Having considered the RV veterinary report, in addition to veterinary reports submitted by trainer Charlie Appleby, Stewards acting under AR20(d) have ordered the withdrawal of the horse from the Melbourne Cup."

Sound and The Chosen One now move into the Top 24 in the Order Of Entry.

walkermac

31st October 2019, 12:13 AM

Results of Cup nominees in today's Bendigo Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4aci3e41zc

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)</td><td>36</td><td>2nd of 14</td><td>BDGO</td><td>2400m Good3 BDGO CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td>@$6</td></tr> <tr><td>SULLY (NZ)</td><td>40</td><td>7th of 14</td><td>BDGO</td><td>2400m Good3 BDGO CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td>@$5</td></tr> <tr><td>ANGEL OF TRUTH</td><td>12</td><td>11th of 14</td><td>BDGO</td><td>2400m Good3 BDGO CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td>@$12</td></tr> <tr><td>RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)</td><td>30</td><td>13th of 14</td><td>BDGO</td><td>2400m Good3 BDGO CUP Group 3 $400,000</td><td>@$8</td></tr></tbody></table>

Nominees for Saturday's Lexus Stakes/Hotham Handicap:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>37</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>27</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>35</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>38</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>24</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>31</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>25</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>26</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>39</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>41</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>23</td><td>Flemington - Race 4 - 1:40PM Lexus Hotham Stakes (2500 METRES)</td></tr></tbody></table>
The position in the Order of Entry for each is actually two less - unless the appeal that Charlie Appleby is talking about making regarding Marmelo is successful. Surely Youngstar and Neufbosc don't run in this.....

If the victor of the race is a Melbourne Cup nominee (there are two in the field who are not) and takes up the ballot exemption, then 24th in the Order will miss out. Sound<sup>23</sup> and The Chosen One<sup>24</sup> are on the same handicap and within $7000 in eligible prizemoney winnings. The final runner in the Cup field might come down to placings in this race: 1st $180,000, 2nd $54,000, 3rd $27,000, 4th $13,500, 5th $7,500, 6th $6,000, 7th $6,000, 8th $6,000.

Yesterday True Self's connections announced they wouldn't make a late entry for the Lexus and rely on attrition to get into the field. They were in 29th then; what did they know!? ;)

Red Galileo has also withdrawn from the race, though he was in 33rd and it wasn't of great concern.

This is exhausting...

walkermac

31st October 2019, 11:29 AM

Talk of legal action from the Hughie Morrison camp regarding Marmelo's forced withdrawal. Understandable as it costs a fair whack of change to get a horse out here for what may amount to be just a holiday.

You can listen to his interview on RSN this morning here: https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=454314

In it he claims the world's leading expert in the "condition" for which he has been turfed out was consulted and says that there is no issue. The areas of concern from the CT scan may have been with the horse for months, if not years: time in which he has comfortably raced without any problems being evident.

Part of the issue might be that there are only 3 of these standing CT scanners in the world. It's only just been put in place at the University of Melbourne's Werribee equine clinic, costing 1.3 million dollars. Ideally what should occur is that current scans are compared to previous ones to highlight areas of change. I know that if I were to have a scan of my foot, it would likely pick up evidence of a bunch of fractures - but these would have happened decades ago.

I'm not sure what model machine they're using, but given the scarcity of them and the quoted price, I would imagine it is a 4-camera version of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RJZtGGedwU. It only takes 30 seconds to do a full scan.

The manufacturers recommend charging clients between $700 and $1000 per scan. That's the advice to vet clinics they're hoping to sell the item to, to recoup the cost (approx. four scans per week).

Honestly, each racing body should park at least one of these in each capital city and registered horses should have to be scanned there every couple of months: no recent scan and they can't race. I also don't think we'd be too far off from AI being able to compare scans and automatically note areas of concern.

walkermac

31st October 2019, 11:42 AM

Marmelo's part-owner John O'Neill with his take on the events of the last 24 hours: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/marmelos-part-owner-john-oneill-his-take-on-events/id1240190872?i=1000455537340

Godolphin travelling foreman Chris Connett with his take on Ispolini's withdrawal from the Cup: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/godolphin-travelling-foreman-chris-connett-joined-us/id1240190872?i=1000455537339

Racing Victoria's GM of Integrity Jamie Stier discusses the reasons international gallopers Marmelo and Ispolini were scratched: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rvs-gm-integrity-jamie-stier-discusses-reasons-international/id1240190872?i=1000455537338

walkermac

1st November 2019, 12:03 AM

Getting hard to keep track but we're now down to 37 candidates with both Angel Of Truth and Raheen House dropping out of the race.

...at least they weren't horses I'd already written a profile on...

Southern France has drifted out to $26 now. Hunting Horn out to $34.

walkermac

1st November 2019, 02:07 AM

https://www.rp-assets.com/images/news/2019/05/17/61783-medium.jpeg

Twilight Payment
6yo B Gelding
Teofilo (IRE) - Dream On Buddy (IRE) [By Oasis Dream (GB)]

24s: 5-9-5

Owner Lloyd Williams and trainer Joseph O'Brien join together again, as they did to great success in 2017 with Rekindling. O'Brien hasn't long been Twilight Payment's trainer though, just in his last race, with the horse switching from John Bolger.

His last race wasn't especially impressive, though he was in good company there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA In the Irish St Leger he finished in 7th position 6.25L back. It wasn't quite as bad as it looked though with Search For A Song surprising the field and going on with it after sneaking away with a lead. Only Kew Gardens was able to bridge the gap somewhat, and then soon after came 'the also-rans', all finishing within 2.5 lengths. Among this bunch were Southern France, Cross Counter, Master Of Reality, Latrobe and Twilight Payment. They were all at level weights here but there will be some changes for the Cup. That's not the case with respect to Latrobe, but Twilight Payment will otherwise be 0.5kg better off against Southern France and Master of Reality, and 2.5kg better off against Cross Counter.

Williams wasn't that disappointed in his performance, claiming that he needed the run and had not long switched stables. There may be some argument that he didn't enjoy the conditions either. The ground wasn't effected much (conditions only changed from Good-to-Firm to Good after the race), but there was torrential rain just ahead of their run.

His three preceding races, each also over 2800m, are the ones that bear looking at. They seem to show that there's not much between the Williams runners.

Twilight Payment vs Master of Reality: -1.75L carrying 0.5kg more and +5.25L carrying 1kg more
Twilight Payment vs Southern France: -0.75L carrying 0.5kg more and +3.25L at level weights

Twilight Payment vs Latrobe: +nk at level weights

Bonus:
Twilight Payment vs Mustajeer: -1.4L and +3.5L, both at level weights

The Curragh Cup was his best performance and that was held over the same course as the St Leger Stakes. The most I can find of the race is here: https://www.racingtv.com/news/twilight-in-the-zone-for-bolger-and-manning. What's different between this and the St Leger Stakes? He's leading in this one (by 3 lengths at the midway point per a race comment) and he's also well into his campaign. His record has him at 0 wins from 10 first or second up races. In 8 of those he placed, but one was when he was still a maiden and the rest were only 5-8 horse fields. Is that a character of the horse, or by virtue of his previous trainer's programming? We don't know...

His official Irish rating jumped to 113 after his last race but that presumably was only due to those he finished around in the St Leger Stakes: 5 lengths away from where it would have mattered. The previous 2 years has seen his rating hover between 105 and 110, which consequently seems a likelier estimate. Particularly for a mature horse.

His Dosage Profile is (1-4-15-6-0), with DI 0.93 and CD 0: 3600m looks the ticket. He's had 3 runs over the Cup distance with 1 win and 2 placings from 3 attempts, all at black type. His Conduit Mare Profile also indicates the longer, the better: (2-7-2-9-10) with Speed 9, Stamina 19, Index 0.42 and Triads (11-18-21).

His past race record looks impressive with some big names popping out and he seems to mix it with Lloyd's other runners when conditions favour, but you feel that if something wonderful were to happen in his career, it would have already happened. His current odds are $61, which do seem a little high though. Somewhere between the Latrobe ($17) and Southern France ($34) marks seems a better estimate.

He looks a bit dour (only Ethereal has won with a higher Stamina figure). I find it hard to picture him running the leader down in the straight but I could see him leading into the straight and having to be run down. You'd think given the size of the field that it would be difficult to get into that position firstly, and that there then would be someone who had had a cushy enough run to have enough in the tank to overhaul him. While he could sneak a place if conditions suit, I'm more inclined to think he'll finish around 10th.

walkermac

2nd November 2019, 04:13 PM

Results from the Hotham Handicap by Cup nominees:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>24</td><td>1st of 10</td><td>FLEM</td><td>2500m Soft7 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $301,500</td><td>@$5.5</td></tr> <tr><td>AZURO (FR)</td><td>32</td><td>3rd of 10</td><td>FLEM</td><td>2500m Soft7 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $301,500</td><td>@$9.5</td></tr> <tr><td>SIR CHARLES ROAD</td><td>27</td><td>4th of 10</td><td>FLEM</td><td>2500m Soft7 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $301,500</td><td>@$9.5</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>23</td><td>5th of 10</td><td>FLEM</td><td>2500m Soft7 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $301,500</td><td>@$6</td></tr> <tr><td>HUSH WRITER (JPN)</td><td>33</td><td>6th of 10</td><td>FLEM</td><td>2500m Soft7 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $301,500</td><td>@$7</td></tr> <tr><td>WALL OF FIRE (IRE)</td><td>36</td><td>7th of 10</td><td>FLEM</td><td>2500m Soft7 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $301,500</td><td>@$14</td></tr> <tr><td>HAKY (IRE)</td><td>30</td><td>8th of 10</td><td>FLEM</td><td>2500m Soft7 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $301,500</td><td>@$8</td></tr> <tr><td>VALAC (IRE)</td><td>34</td><td>9th of 10</td><td>FLEM</td><td>2500m Soft7 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $301,500</td><td>@$26</td></tr> <tr><td>PATRICK ERIN (NZ)</td><td>25</td><td>10th of 10</td><td>FLEM</td><td>2500m Soft7 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $301,500</td><td>@$9.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
Downdraft wins and is into Tuesday's Melbourne Cup with his ballot exemption. Following the forced withdrawals of Marmelo and Ispolini, and the scratching of Angel of Truth, he was in 24th so needed to protect his position. It's been announced that he has not earned a penalty.

Angel of Truth ruined everything. Check out this alternative timeline: After Marmelo and Ispolini were turfed by stewards, Sound was 23rd in the order and elected to skip the Hotham. The Chosen One in 24th needed to run, with the winner otherwise bumping him from the Cup. Both he and Sound were on the same handicap with Sound just ahead with $248,489 of eligible winnings. The Chosen One was close behind with $241,000. He just finished 5th and won $7500, taking his eligible winnings to $248,500. He should have jumped ahead of Sound in the Order and would have made it into the Melbourne Cup field by just $11.

But Angel Of Truth wrecked it on Thursday. Sound could withdraw from the Hotham as he was guaranteed a Melbourne Cup start.

Don't know why The Chosen One ran... Downdraft couldn't leap ahead of him in the prizemoney stakes by coming 2nd. If another horse won the exemption then it would have been Downdraft missing out on the Top 24.

Final declarations, along with rider notifications, are due by 4:30pm today. The barrier draw is set to start at 5:30pm.

walkermac

2nd November 2019, 05:08 PM

Here is the extra distance that each horse ran when compared to the one that covered the least metres in their Cup. Collected by barrier and per the tracking stats available for the last 2 years (NB - only one data point for barrier 9 and one for barrier 24).

https://i.ibb.co/Sn4Vjm4/Barrier-Distance.png

UselessBettor

2nd November 2019, 05:12 PM

walkermac

2nd November 2019, 06:59 PM

Aside from the odds perhaps fluctuating over the next couple of days, here are the final results of 'the system'. Not as helpful as in past years!

(NB - Bold runners have a Conduit Mare Stamina Figure of 17, as have had 10 of the last 11 winners).

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Barrier</td><td>Total</td><td>Less than 8yo</td><td>Wgt < 57kg</td><td>Not a mare</td><td><= $21 SP</td><td>< $16 in last</td><td>Wgtd < than in last</td><td>FS in last >= 10</td><td>Won Black Type</td><td><=3L in last</td><td><6 victories</td></tr> <tr><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)</td><td>7</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>FINCHE (GB)</td><td>4</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MUSTAJEER (GB)</td><td>6</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE</td><td>21</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ)</td><td>20</td><td>10</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)</td><td>1</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)</td><td>3</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>LATROBE (IRE)</td><td>22</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE)</td><td>15</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)</td><td>8</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE)</td><td>24</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)</td><td>19</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE)</td><td>14</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE)</td><td>11</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB)</td><td>13</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)</td><td>18</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN)</td><td>2</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNGSTAR</td><td>9</td><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>IL PARADISO (USA)</td><td>17</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>CROSS COUNTER (GB)</td><td>5</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)</td><td>12</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE)</td><td>16</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>NEUFBOSC (FR)</td><td>23</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>SOUND (GER)</td><td>10</td><td>6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>

The Ocho

2nd November 2019, 10:38 PM

Thanks walkermac for all you've done with this thread. Can you remind us how the system works and what the system picks are? Would they be used just for the win or, say, a first 4?

walkermac

2nd November 2019, 11:05 PM

https://cdn.racenet.com.au/images/news/news_images/648w/neufbosc.jpg

Neufbosc
4yo GR Gelding
Mastercraftsman (IRE) - Nonsuch Way (IRE) [By Verglas (IRE)]

13s: 3-2-1

He's not given much chance by the market, Neufbosc has the longest odds in the race. Prince of Penzance won at $100 in 2015, why not Neufbosc at $126?

Let's look at his pedigree. His Dosage Profile is (1-13-6-0-0), DI 5.67 and CD 0.75. Oh. His DI and CD are higher than any winner this century. He looks more like a 1400m runner. 6 of the 38 placegetters had a higher CD - and one of these at $101 - so it's not impossible. Just unlikely.

He looks slightly better with his Conduit Mare Profile of (6-8-1-9-7), Speed 14, Stamina 16, Index 0.88 and Triads (15-18-17). Though Prince of Penzance still looks the most similar to him of recent winners...

Neufbosc was a French runner with some handy European form; mid last-year he finished a close second to Kew Gardens over 2400m. Behind him in that race was Dee Ex Bee (3 lengths further back) and Downdraft (14 lengths). Downdraft is at $16 for Tuesday's race. The race prior, he had beaten Ispolini by 4 lengths. The race following, he started favourite but was just beaten by Hunting Horn by 1.5L. Hunting Horn is at $31.

He was such a prospect that his final European start was last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

....did they ship the right horse? (To be honest, I actually spent some time trying to compare video to see if it was. Because he's a grey, his colour has changed markedly as he's aged; he looked waaaay more brown when he was at his best overseas as a 3 year old).

He was gelded sometime soon after his arrival but it didn't seem to do him any favours. He's had 5 starts in Australia over 1400m to 2400m and not finished any better than 7th or any closer than 4.5 lengths.

The Geelong Cup is probably the best guide as to his current ability: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ1XfgvsESk. He runs along the rail in 4th position with the field going at a moderate tempo. Rounding the final turn he's left behind a wall of horses and: it doesn't seem to matter. He never really threatens to run on. The speed that his figures said he should have has been totally lacking in his Australian races thus far.

Luckily for him, his Melbourne Cup handicap was based on his European performances from last year. Unlucky for those who missed out on a Cup position, he's not running anything up to that standard. His last official French rating was 112. His Australian rating is currently 105 and very kind. The handicapper wasn't to know his form would turn dire. When weights were released for the Cup Neufbosc had only had two runs, each of which over unfavourable distances, so his poor results in those were anticipated.

Given his current form, given that he's carrying 2.5kg more than his rating says he should, given his barrier (#23), and given how different his prep is to when he was performing well in France, he looks likely to finish within the last handful. It seems very unlikely that he'll suddenly bring this kind of form: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv4usV7wwdE (Neufbosc's jockey is in white with a purple cap). He'd be among the favourites if he did; but it seems an impossible ask to turn it all around.

walkermac

2nd November 2019, 11:57 PM

Thanks walkermac for all you've done with this thread. Can you remind us how the system works and what the system picks are? Would they be used just for the win or, say, a first 4?'The system' is just a collation of form factors that were supposed to shortlist the winner. 2017 was the first year and it was applied retroactively. The form factors were noted ahead of time and after the race I went back expecting to discover how useless they were, but the winner Rekindling was the only horse to have ticked off every factor (from memory, only he, Almandin and Wicklow Brave - the latter two whom could be ruled out by age - also had the 17 Conduit Mare Stamina figure).

Last year was the first time it was used to forecast the result. You can't see it on last year's thread now unfortunately: I posted it as an image and the hosting site has since shut down. I'm certain though (I think someone comments this in the thread) that the first four were among the total of 7 horses in the table that had either full points or were only one off. Cross Counter was one of the horses who had lost one point, but he was the only one of the seven who also had 17 Stamina.

As far as how to use the data in the table this year: unfortunately there are too many good candidates for it to be of much use this time! For an interest wager you could place a Win bet for Raymond Tusk, Downdraft or Surprise Baby: they're on the top two rungs + have a 17 Stamina figure.

It's probably more helpful as a means to help your own decision-making in coming up with a shortlist.

Here's another system which might leave a smaller number of candidates: "Aspro's Melbourne Cup System", presumably soon to be posted by Racing & Sports:

Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day)
Mer De Glace, Vow And Declare, Mirage Dancer

Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Downdraft

Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run
Cross Counter, Prince Of Arran

Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner
Downdraft

Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run.
N/A

Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older.
Bye, <str>Prince Of Arran</str>

So per this system, the winner comes from: Mer De Glace, Vow And Declare, Mirage Dancer, Downdraft, or Cross Counter.

Combine it with our 'the system' and the winner is "clearly" one of Downdraft and Vow And Declare. ...though you'll note that there's no way for a debuting foreign raider to be a selection per Aspro, so his system would have misfired the previous two years. Per 'the system', the best foreign debuting candidates are Master Of Reality and Latrobe. Box these 4 candidates for trifecta and first fours? Standout Downdraft - the only one of these with a 17 Stamina figure - for the win, if you're a strong believer.

I thought Marmelo was going to win this year, to be honest. So I was fully prepared for 'the system' to fail and was likely going to bet against it. That's how much confidence I have in its selections! LOL

<str></str><str><str></str></str>

walkermac

3rd November 2019, 02:35 AM

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2-11-2019-Downdraft-DSC_4853-734x460.jpg

Downdraft
4yo B Horse
Camelot (GB) - Cinnamon Rose (USA)

18s: 7-2-1

Apparently this guy is going to win the Melbourne Cup... ;)

Greg Carpenter made a couple of interesting tweets after Downdraft's win in the Hotham Handicap/Lexus Stakes:

[b]- Ten of last 13 Hotham Handicap winners have finished top ten in Melbourne Cup three days later - Six of those finishing top 5. Shocking (2009) and Brew (2000) last two to complete Hotham-Cup double.

- Factors considered in not issuing penalty were his defeats behind Southern France in Irish Leger Trial and Hunting Horn in MV Gold Cup last two runs and only Hotham winner to carry more than 51.5kg in last 25 years was Prince of Arran (53kg)

I omitted a profile on Prince Of Arran last year as I ran out of time to do them all and figured he was a safe sacrifice, given he'd surely be unlikely to run his best just 3 days after his Hotham victory. If I was aware of Greg Carpenter's stat, I wouldn't have been so surprised when he ended up running into 3rd.

Prince Of Arran had a bit of a tougher time in his race, with the favourite Brimham Rocks pushing him to the line. Downdraft had a comparatively cushy run: he travelled the least distance in the field and - coming into the turn - the leader Haky (also an OTI runner) drifted away from the fence to give him a saloon passage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBwUORaWtAY. Carif ran on for second, but the race was over at the 400m mark.

One negative is that Downdraft also ran last Saturday. Come Tuesday he'll have run 3 times inside of 11 days. Prince Of Arran didn't do that last year. Nor did Shocking. Brew very nearly did though: he came second in the Moonee Valley Cup, which was held on a Thursday at the time and so he just got an extra couple of days before the Hotham/Lexus/SAAB. Perhaps further indication of how soft Downdraft had it: both his and Brew's races were on a Soft 7 but yesterday's race was nearly 2 seconds slower.

The rise of Downdraft is only a relatively recent occurrence. OTI saw something they liked early in his career, following some meh All-Weather track performances in 2018. They held high hopes for his 3yo season but a trip to Longchamp (for the Juddmonte; the same race I linked in Neufbosc's profile) showed exactly where he stood: 15 lengths off the pace.

He didn't really hit his straps until this July. He kicked of this run of performances with a victory in a 4-horse field over 2400m, his first Listed victory and his first attempt at black type since his shellacking the previous year. Later that month he showed a very impressive finish in Her Majesty's Plate Listed Race at Down Royal: https://youtu.be/dVO_Er0usGs?t=244. He beat 2nd by 3 lengths and put another 5 on the rest of the field. Twilight Payment had won this race the year previous, in a time 7 seconds slower.

From there it was to the St Leger Trial Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ftKx9Ym-z0. Unfortunately we don't get to see the whole race. Southern France beat him by 2 lengths at equal weights, where Downdraft beat Master Of Reality by a further 2 lengths, carrying 1kg less. Downdraft will carry 2kg less than Southern France in the Cup and gets another 1kg off Master of Reality.

Australia beckoned and after a 10 week break he resumed in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEeY4F6zRto. He finished in 3rd position, 1.5 lengths behind Hunting Horn. Downdraft carried 0.5kg more here, and will carry 1.5kg less than him in the Cup. It looks like Handicapper Carpenter was very friendly regarding penalties.... Downdraft looks like he should have probably earned 1kg, to be fair. He'll be carrying 53.5kg, 2.5kg lighter than he's ever carried before.

His Moonee Valley performance was missing the zip we saw overseas. His only prior first up win was in a 4-horse race. And the zip seemed to be back yesterday. Perhaps he needed the run.

His Dosage Profile is (4-1-16-9-0), with DI 0.76 and CD of 0. That indicates no problem with getting the distance; in fact even further may be better. He is yet to race at 3200m, but at 2800m he has one win (Listed) and one place (Group 3). His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-5-1-8-9), with Speed 9, Stamina 17, Index of 0.52 and Triads (10-14-18). He has that "magic" 17 Stamina figure and looks like a slightly more dour Marmelo; perhaps that's why I'm warming to him.

He wouldn't be stoked with his barrier. He drew #15 and 5 of his 7 victories have come from barriers 1-3. At least it was no wider, that's when things start to go bad (see http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=374771&postcount=96 for more details).

Backing up after so much recent racing is the big concern, though we have no way to measure the effect. If honest reports from his trainer are that he has recuperated well and will be right to go, he looks a strong top-4 chance to me.

UselessBettor

3rd November 2019, 11:54 AM

Time to start posting our selections.

For the winner I think we are down to the following:

CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
FINCHE (GB)
MUSTAJEER (GB)
VOW AND DECLARE
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)
DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
MER DE GLACE (JPN)

I'm also going to throw in CROSS COUNTER because its being tipped everywhere but I don't expect it to win. That leaves us 11 selections.

In order of preference for me (ratings at the start with 0.0 being best):

0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN)
0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
1.5 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
2.5 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)
2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
2.5 FINCHE (GB)
2.5 MUSTAJEER (GB)
3.0 VOW AND DECLARE
9.9 CROSS COUNTER

My strategy for the Melbourne cup will be to lay those identified at the bottom of the list from WalkerMac's and will include:

IL PARADISO (USA)
ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)
NEUFBOSC (FR)
SOUND (GER)

to tell the truth most of my money comes from other races on Tuesday so this race won't have a big impact on profits.

Whats your tips? Do you disagree with mine? Put up your tips for bragging rights on Tuesday afternoon.

walkermac

3rd November 2019, 12:04 PM

https://cdn.racenet.com.au/images/news/news_images/1001w/latrobe-wins-in-ireland-but-doesnt-firm-in-spring-majors.jpg

Latrobe
4yo BR Horse
Camelot (GB) - Question Times (GB) [By Shamardal (USA)]

15s: 3-6-1

Latrobe has drifted in betting to $26 following yesterday's barrier draw. It also might be somewhat 'out of sight, out of mind', given that he's yet to race since arriving in Australia.

He's drawn barrier #22. As can be seen in the graph posted yesterday: the past two years, the horse in barrier #22 has run an average 20m further than the horse who travelled the least distance.

Last year I did some data crunching and determined that those drawn outside barrier 15 were under-represented in the Top-4 finishers.

Ahead of the 2018 race, I noted (using data from 2000 on) that the 3 winners within the sample were all carrying <= 52kg and 11 of the 13 top-4 finishers were <= $21 despite their draw. Using those filters on the whole data set, of the 140 finishers drawn outside barrier 15, the <= $21 rule eliminated 99 candidates and missed just 1 second and 1 third (Jakkalberry and Red Cadeaux). The 'Weight <= 54kg' eliminated a further 12 for no further top-4 misses.

Applying it for 2018, it meant that Cross Counter and Rostropovich were possible winners, and that A Prince Of Arran, Yucatan and Magic Circle were potential placegetters. It ruled out 5 horses: one of whom was Finche in 4th and the rest finished 13th and worse.

In 2019, Vow And Declare remains a winning chance, with Il Paradiso, Magic Wand and Surprise Baby remaining place chances (presuming prices don't change). Latrobe doesn't make the cut currently.

I read there's some thought that he may struggle at the distance if it's hard-run. There is something to bear that out in his pedigree figures. His Dosage Profile is (2-7-19-8-0) with DI 1.06 and CD 0.08; indicating around 3300m is his best distance. But his Conduit Mare Profile, which I tend to defer to, is (4-5-4-11-4), with Speed 9, Stamina 15, Index 0.74, and Triads (13-20-19) and looks like slightly short of that. Among the winners this century, only Americain and Delta Blues have a lower Stamina figure. Americain was on a Slow track and Delta Blues' win was one of the slower times on Good. Latrobe has had 3 goes over 2800m with two second placings at Group level, so he's not without hope, but would be hoping for a moderate pace.

Latrobe came to Australia last season to contest the Cup but was withdrawn and ran in the Mackinnon Stakes instead, coming 2nd to Trap For Fools. He dropped into Sha Tin - for little success - on the way home before spelling.

He resumed in April where he mixed it with some other Cup runners over 2000m: he accounted for Mustajeer in the Alleged Stakes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-fWGA-13f4 (carrying 2kg more; they're level on Tuesday) and was edged out by Magic Wand in the Wolferton Stakes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEkwgqn0NQQ (carrying 2.5kg more; he gets 1kg back on Tuesday).

Up at 2800m in the Curragh Cup (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE89Pj6PvEI) Latrobe got beaten by a neck by Twilight Payment (at even weights, as will be the case in the Cup), beat Southern France by 3 lengths (the latter will now carry 0.5kg more), and had another win over Mustajeer (3 lengths at the same weights).

His final European race was the 2800m Irish St Leger, finishing a 5.5 lengths 6th: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA. The winner had put just over 2 lengths on Kew Gardens. Another 2 lengths back to a bunch all finishing within a couple lengths of each other: Southern France, Cross Counter, Master Of Reality, Latrobe and Twilight Payment. Though he would have preferred to be a wee bit closer, Latrobe is better at the weights come the Cup. Per owner Lloyd Williams after the race: "Latrobe was disappointing to the eye but not the jockey [Donnacha O'Brien]. Improvement is possible." Hardly a ringing endorsement, but there's some hope for supporters.

I think the distance is slightly beyond his best, he's a notch below the better overseas candidates, he's lacking some top end speed, and the wide barrier draw is of little help. Let's say he'll finish around 14th.

walkermac

3rd November 2019, 01:30 PM

https://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/mbdxxlarge/mritems/Images/2018/11/6/cb6effbb3bc347c7a00107ddbd5c78ce_18.jpg

Cross Counter
4yo B Gelding
Teofilo (IRE) - Waitress (USA) [by Kingmambo (USA)]

12s: 6-2-1

You can read last year's profile on Cross Counter (in which I called him 'the likeliest candidate'), here: http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showthread.php?p=374798&highlight=cross+counter#post374798

So what's changed since last then? Well, he won last year's Melbourne Cup. In case anyone's forgotten how thrilling his finishing burst was: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95ypY3OqS6w. He was drawn wide, went back and with the light weight zipped by the field in the straight. He just collected Marmelo in the last 50m, but had 3 lengths on everyone else.

He's back to defend his title, and has a real weight rise of just 2.5kg. He carried 51kg, 4.5kg below the benchmark for a Northern Hemisphere 4yo at the time. His weight this year is 57.5kg, 2kg below benchmark.

From the stats I have for returning winners:

Almandin went up 4.5kg (12th 11.7L)
Americain went up 3.5kg (4th 1.5L and then 11th 6.7L)
Dunaden went up 4.5kg (14th 10L and 11th 8.8L)
Fiorente went up 1.5kg when moving from 2nd to 1st
Green Moon went up 3kg (21st 44.4L)
Makybe Diva went up 4.5kg (1st, then a further 2.5kg for 1st)

Media Puzzle went up 3kg (12th 10.3L, 2 years later)
Shocking went up 6kg (18th 19.4L)
Viewed went up 5kg (7th 4.4L).

So Cross Counter has been treated relatively kindly when compared to recent winners. Prior to the Melbourne Cup his Official British Rating was 114. Now it's 118, so that's also in keeping with the weight rise. Compared to the other horse's in the race and their ratings, only Raymond Tusk, Hunting Horn (if you take his overseas rating), Il Paradiso and Master Of Reality get 1kg or more in their favour.

Per a report earlier in September:

Syndicator Luke Murrell, whose company Australian Bloodstock syndicated the 2014 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist, said Cross Counter was extremely well in with his current weight.

“Cross Counter, with 57.5kg he has been gifted the race this year,” Murrell said.

“He’s had seven starts in Group company for three wins- two at Group I level and two placings to the best stayer in the world in Stradivarius – basically the Melbourne Cup is over before we start if he travels well.

“How you can get into a Melbourne Cup having won last year - then winning the Dubai Gold Cup - then with the fat Stradivarius form – with 57.5kg is surprising.

“You can only assume he's a put in and take out job - and the $17 is a gift this far out - if he arrives here on the day, he will start 4/1.”

He's at $14 currently, but then very little word has escaped Werribee.... He was also sent for a precautionary CT scan last week but was passed as suitable.

Since the 2018 Melbourne Cup he's won the Dubai Gold Cup relatively easily bar for Ispolini - who's since been scratched (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxryP4DxT-Q), ran 4th in the Gold Cup at Ascot within 2 lengths of Stradivarius (over 4000m which is too long for him), and then was back to 2 miles in the Goodwood Cup Stakes (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUMkUv6e1Tw) where he finished 7 lengths in front of Southern France, and just behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee again.

His one blemish was his final European race in the Irish St Leger. Southern France just shaded him and he finished among some other Cup challengers. Per his trainer Charlie Appleby: “Cross Counter put up a pleasing effort. It was a bit of a messy race but he produced another solid performance and we can look forward to seeing him try to defend his crown at Flemington.” Given his earlier form I'm inclined to think that Cross Counter just had an off day there.

He won't be able to run by the field as he did last year but he's drawn well in Barrier 5. I'd certainly have him among the top finishers and wouldn't rule him out of going back-to-back.

Lord Greystoke

3rd November 2019, 04:21 PM

SURPRISE BABY (NZ)

Whats your tips? Do you disagree with mine? Put up your tips for bragging rights on Tuesday afternoon.

The only selection which tops every 'system' or filter I draw on.

Next best is ..

DOWNDRAFT (IRE)

Best of luck gents and hats off to W Mac for another outstanding MC thread.

Cheers LG

walkermac

3rd November 2019, 06:25 PM

http://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/UserFiles/Image/Qatar%20Goodwood%202018%2FMirage%20Dancer%20LK%20(1%20of%201).jpg

Mirage Dancer
5yo B Horse
Frankel (GB) - Heat Haze (GB) [By Green Desert (USA)]

17s: 4-5-4

I'm gonna do it! 10 more profiles to go! ....10?! I'm gonna try and do it!

Mirage Dancer was one of the 5 shortlisted by Aspro's system but was a rung below those picked per 'the system' here. He lost two points from his tally: he wasn't under $16 in his last race - he was exactly $16; and he isn't less <= $21 in the Melbourne Cup. Those two factors can be quite broad, I think it was Rostropovich last year that was discounted on account of starting at $31 in the Cox Plate: it wasn't his fault he was up against Winx though! If you can determine that the preceding race wasn't typical or that the market had misread the actual chance, then you could argue about letting that one slide.

And the starting price is a nice filter, but 22.4% of those who finished in the first 4 this century had a starting price > $21. (22.8% for top 3; 26.3% for top 2; 10.5% for first). ...plus you feel smarter if you were to pick the runner contrary to market expectation.

In the Caulfield Cup, among eventual Melbourne Cup starters, both Mirage Dancer and Sound appeared to perform contrary to the market expectation. The former finished a 1.2L 3rd, with the next highest odds-finisher (Hartnell) two lengths back in 7th. Mirage Dancer finished in front of 5 other horses who were at lower odds.

I'm pretty sure the market had him wrong. Best Solution won the Caulfield Cup in 2018; who'd he beat by 0.5L in July of that year at equal weights? Mirage Dancer. Who'd Best Solution beat by a neck in his next race? Sound. The following race Best Solution beat Defoe by a neck and Defoe has been one of the good formlines of this season, during which Mirage Dancer also ran well against him.

Mirage Dancer's run against Defoe was in the Hardwicke Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ4ZQzDeuhg. He held on well for third and also beat Southern France by 7L.

Next up was the Princess of Wales's Tattersalls Stakes, where he finished second to Communique: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bA0HykJTMUc. That horse would go on to contest German Group 1's, including finished ahead of Old Persian in his next.

His final UK race was in the Glorious Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hESsYO5tajo, where he finished 2nd again (and 12 lengths ahead of Prince Of Arran). The winner Desert Encounter won his next two races in England (Group 3s) and then won a Group 1 in Canada.

From there it was off to Australia and into the care of Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. His first start for them was the Caulfield Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4. Both Mer De Glace and Vow And Declare came from the rear, whereas Mirage Dancer was midfield or slightly better. When the pressure came on, there was a line of horses in the way and he had to wait for a run. He was brushed with 200m to go and had to balance up again before he sprinted on well. Mer De Glace will carry 1kg more in the Cup following his weight penalty, whereas everyone else was at their Cup weight.

There were a couple who looked to have slightly more finishing speed than he did, but his first up stats are mixed so he may have needed the run. He has a good record second up.

2400m is the furthest he's run and it's where he has the bulk of his wins (3) and placings (6) come from (10 starts): though the bulk of those are in small fields. His Dosage Profile is (2-6-15-7-0), with DI 1.07 and CD 0.1; that looks like he should be fine over the Cup distance. His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-7-3-12-7) with Speed 11, Stamina 19, Index 0.62 and Triads (14-22-22). That looks quite similar to Prince Of Arran's profile, with slightly more Stamina and a tad less Speed.

I don't reckon he'll win but I think he's a good shot at getting a place. At $34 Win Odds he'd also surely be a half-decent price to finish top 10, for which I think he's a shoe-in.

UselessBettor

3rd November 2019, 06:59 PM

Im enjoying the reading of the profiles. Keep them coming.

jose

3rd November 2019, 09:07 PM

X 2 to the above.
Loving the whole thread.

walkermac

3rd November 2019, 10:19 PM

https://www.irishracing.com/photo_jpeg/U000015637314021.jpg

Il Paradiso
3yo CH Colt
Galileo (IRE) - Famous (IRE) [By Danehill Dancer (IRE)]

8s: 2-2-2

Looking to reproduce the result of the past two years, it's a 3yo candidate from the Northern Hemisphere (considered a 4yo in the Southern). Following the victories of Rekindling and Cross Counter, a review was held regarding the handicapping of this type. The result of the review was that their benchmark was increased by 1kg. Cross Counter carried 51kg last year, Il Paradiso will carry 52.5kg this year (i.e. not only was the benchmark weight bumped up 1kg, but he is adjudged as being 1 rating point/0.5kg better; I don't think that's the case, I think it just goes to show that Cross Counter wasn't carrying near enough the weight he should have been).

Il Paradiso is still quite well in at the weights though. Cross Counter's current rating is 118, meaning that with his Official Irish Rating of 111, he should be carrying 3.5kg less (presuming that their ratings are accurate for performances over 3200m). He's carrying 5kg less; i.e. he has 1.5kg in his favour.

What he doesn't have in his favour is his sire. 21 Galileos have crossed the finish line this century and while there have been two seconds and a third, the bulk of his progeny finished outside of the top 10. Is it just bad luck? His stats for runners to winners over 3200m are quite similar to his best distance ranges: 1600m and 2400m. The ones that appear to do well here though are those with higher Stamina figures. Perhaps the style of the Cup is different to those contested over the same distance in Europe and Galileos need a little extra here... The 3 Galileo placegetters each had Stamina figures of 19 or above, and were priced at under $16. Sir Johannes Vermeer in 2017, and Purple Moon and Mahler, both in 2007.

Ispolini has a Dosage Profile of (4-11-21-12-0), a DI of 1.13 and CD of 0.15 (i.e. 3150m is best, approximately). His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-10-1-9-10) with Speed 13, Stamina 19, Index 0.57 and Triads (14-20-20) - i.e. like a less speedy Johannes Vermeer. So he has a good Stamina figure for a Galileo and is currently at $14. He fits the profile....

Greg Carpenter has admitted that Ispolini was difficult to handicap. There haven't been many runs and there hasn't been consistency. He's basically been rated on his last 3 races.

The first of these was a 2 mile handicap where he beat 2nd by 12 lengths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu92ZGNakyg.

The next was the Lonsdale Cup, another 2 mile race but this time at Group 2 level: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrAn2_XW_Xg. Stradivarius wins relatively narrowly, as per his style, with Dee Ex Bee finishing a nose ahead of Il Paradiso. This was his Cup qualifying race and complicating how to judge it: there were only 4 starters, both Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight bled afterward, and Stradivarius only ever does enough to win - he never really smashes the field. Racing Post does indicate that it was run 1.5s faster than normal, but that's about all you can go on.

There are different rules regarding bleeding in the UK, so both Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight were back a month later in the Prix du Cadran over 4000m. The former must have felt pretty good, finishing 1.5L from Holdthasigreen and Call The Wind; both of those having form around Marmelo both this year and last.

Finally, wikipedia says that: in a 2005 study, horses finishing races with grade 4 EIPH (i.e. bleeding) were on average 6 metres behind those finishing with grade 0. It's only through repeated bouts where horses can get decreased lung function. Given that the race was 1.5s faster than normal and you'd only expect Dee Ex Bee to perform 3 lengths or so worse than he would regularly, then it's still a pretty good run. Particularly for a 3yo in only his 7th start.

His final race was the Group 1 St Leger Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAy70lZxwvk. Il Paradiso did a fair bit of early work. Western Australia shot out to a big initial lead and Il Paradiso marshalled the chasing bunch. He moved to the lead at the 3 furlong mark and looked about to go on with it, but weakened soon thereafter. I recall writing at the time that it looked pretty clear the jockey was expecting more to be in reserve (NB - a different jockey was on board than was with Il Paradiso on his 3 preceding runs; the new jockey has 5 black type wins, the old - Wayne Lordan - has won over 100 black type races and will be riding him in the Cup).

Logician was the winner and there's no shame losing to him: that was his 5th win from 5 starts. Given the ratings of the placegetters, Il Paradiso was still just 2 lengths off where his rating said he should be.

And now for the bad news: he's the only runner in the final field to have not won black type. He also had the least amount of eligible winnings of all runners after third acceptances once Raheen House dropped out. ....but that's the price of dodging the handicapper.

I've talked myself back around. He'll have the blinkers on. Aidan O'Brien sold Constantinople and not him. I don't think he'll win but he'll go very close. Let's go wild and crazy (and eschew 'the system') and say that he'll come 2nd.

walkermac

4th November 2019, 12:34 AM

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/fincheSD_web.jpg

Finche
5yo CH Gelding
Frankel (GB) - Binche (USA) [By Woodman (USA) 1983]

14s: 4-1-3

Ahead of last year's Geelong Cup, Finche's Australian debut, I picked him as a likely Melbourne Cup candidate. I thought he had mixed it with some good Europeans, that he was handicapped fairly, and that he looked as if he would handle the distance. He ended up finishing 3rd in the Geelong Cup (giving away 5kg to those ahead of him) before going on to the Melbourne Cup and finishing in 4th position. He ran at the front of the pack for much of the race, took the lead in the straight and held on to finish just 3.5 lengths from Cross Counter. He stayed on in Australia following the race and enjoyed a long break before resuming again in September.

His first run was over a mile, a distance he hadn't contested since his race debut. This was to be a very different preparation than his inaugural Cup tilt. His new trainer, Chris Waller, was endeavouring to follow a Bart Cummings-style preparation.

“I'm short [of the 10,000m] with Finche and a touch off it with Youngstar in terms of races, but if you add in trials we get there.

“I know my horses get better with racing like [Bart's] did and we get [to the Melbourne Cup] with them ready to peak.”

“I didn’t over-analyse it last year but I knew he would be a stronger horse in 12 months' time,” Waller said. “He has had the benefit of a year in the warmer weather and his preparation is what we wanted.

“If I have a shadow of doubt, it is just the way I train horses for these really big two mile [races] where it is a test. I might be a little bit soft on them but hopefully we get away with it.”

Finche’s preparation adds up to 8000m on racedays, with his two barrier trials taking the figure to 10,200m. I'm not a racehorse trainer; my background is in track and field. If any elite athlete is training for an event like they did in the 1990s, let alone the 1970s, they are doing it wrong. I don't see how getting a horse fit and fast is magically exempt from the progress that has been made in every other sport. I suspect there is far too much mythology associated with racing for it to be wholly logical, particularly when it comes to Bart Cummings and the Cup.

Anyway, next up was the 2000m Kingston Town Stakes. Finche was once more in the leading bunch before beating Stampede by half a length. Every Melbourne Cup nominee in this race subsequently dropped out or missed out on the final field.

Finche shifted to Victoria for the 2000m Turnbull Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe-vi1yMHcA. This was his first Group 1 placing, coming a narrow 2nd to Kings Will Dream. Finche began well and had a good trip in fourth place. Per the Race Notes: he improved nicely at the home turn, challenged coming to the 200m and kept fighting strongly for second, beaten a short head. Also in the field was Vow And Declare (4th 1.5L - 1.5kg better in the Cup), Sound (7th 3.75L - same) and Rostropovich (9th 4.5L - carries 1kg more, somehow).

On to the Caulfield Cup! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4 Finche drew a wide barrier and was caught outside as he once more travelled towards the pointy end. He moved up at the home turn, took the lead at the 300m and then held on for 5th - as several horses ran past him. He doesn't look to have the speed necessary to keep challengers at bay. His awkward running style certainly wouldn't conserve energy; at the end of this race it looked like he was jumping up and down on the spot.

On the plus side: he carries the same weight as he did in the 2018 Cup. Those who finished in front of him last year do worse: Cross Counter (+2.5kg), Marmelo (would have been +1kg) and Prince Of Arran (+1kg). The danger is a new crop of lightly-weighted internationals running him down.

Finche's Dosage Profile is now (6-7-19-14-0) with a DI of 0.96 and a CD of 0.11. That CD looks like 3200m is ideal. His Conduit Mare Profile reads as (3-8-4-13-6) with Speed 11, Stamina 19, Index of 0.62 and Triads of (15-25-23). It looks like even longer is preferred.

He's drawn barrier 4, which is perfect for him given where he'll want to be once the field resolves itself. He looks to be going as well as he was last year with the exact same weight. But....I think it unlikely he'll win; I think it unlikely he'll place. I reckon he'll be somewhere between 4th and 8th again. I'm yet to see him hold off a quality runner in the straight and this field has plenty.

walkermac

4th November 2019, 12:56 PM

http://britishchampionsseries.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/master-of-reality-e1561372218259.png

Master Of Reality
4yo B Gelding
Frankel (GB) - L'ancresse (IRE) [By Darshaan (GB)]

12s: 3-1-2

Frankie Dettori's latest bid for a first Melbourne Cup win will be from on board Master Of Reality. According to today's Herald Sun, Frankie texted Lloyd Williams a picture of his trophies from the Ascot Carnival and said "Melbourne Cup, please. I’m coming to ride Master Of Reality". Frankie was riding Stradivarius in the Gold Cup when Master Of Reality @ $67 finished within one length. He figured that any horse who could match it with Stradivarius at level weights and was a set for a start in the Melbourne Cup was the horse for him. ...but isn't there a saying that jockeys are the worst form experts?

As has been noted a number of times, Stradivarius never puts a distance on the other horses in the race. Up until being beaten by a nose by Kew Gardens in his last outing, he had put together a string of 10 consecutive victories; half of these were within one length, with all but one within two. His are also psychological victories over the other horses. He trails his opposition, passes them and then stays just far enough ahead to remind his chasers that they're still in the same race and won't win.

A far better guide to Master Of Reality's form is that he was beaten by a nose by Dee Ex Bee into 3rd and finished 0.75L in front of Cross Counter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB69t2__p9w. The Gold Cup is a real stayer's contest, held over 4000m though. Foreign raiders here have said that European horses with form over 2400m seem to fare better in the Melbourne Cup. They tend to have more speed in the arsenal, which may be more effective given the stop-start nature of our race.

One of the most appealing angles of Master Of Reality is his weight: he carries 2kg less than his rating says he should. His Official Irish Rating is currently 118 - equal highest in the field, level with Cross Counter - a mark he reached following this Ascot Gold Cup run and maintained during two subsequent Irish performances. The official rating is meant to capture the ability of a horse over its most suited distance range. Effectively, Greg Carpenter is saying that Master Of Reality is 2kg/4L worse over the Melbourne Cup trip.

Looking at his pedigree stuff, Master Of Reality is the dourest Frankel in the field. His Dosage Profile is (1-3-14-8-2) with DI 0.65 and CD -0.25; there is very little in the way of Brilliance figures and he has the lowest CD in the race. That's an indication that he's best suited at further than 4300m, so no wonder he did well in the Ascot Gold Cup. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-6-4-12-7) with Speed 9, Stamina 19, Index 0.53 and Triads (13-22-23); again best suited at above 4000m. He's similar to Almandin and will want the race to motor along to an extent such that any fast finishers from the tail of the field will have their sprinting bursts dulled and their passage potentially blocked by fading horses.

His "shorter" distances this campaign were all over the 2800m. He began his series of runs in April with a neck victory over Mustajeer. His starting odds were $34, reflecting a 3yo season that was - kindly - mixed; gelding worked. Also behind him in the field were Southern France and Twilight Payment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGy9lOOH3r8. They all finished within 2L and were within 0.5kg of each other, as will be the case tomorrow. The bulk of the run is missing, but per comments, he lead the race for the duration.

Twilight Payment flipped the script in their next race, beating Master Of Reality by 5 lengths. He was unable to take the lead, and could only keep on at the one pace inside the straight: https://youtu.be/KqvcGmcA77o?t=172

Next was the Ascot Gold Cup and then a short break before the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ftKx9Ym-z0. It was the turn of Southern France and Downdraft to beat him after Master Of Reality lead once again and ran on one-paced, again, in the straight to finish a 4-length 3rd.

His final European race was the Irish St Leger itself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA. He lead in the early stages before Search For A Song, the only 3yo filly in the race, was upset with the pace and sped off to head them all. She put on a distance that the field couldn't run down, with Master Of Reality finishing in a knot of Melbourne Cup candidates (Southern France, Cross Counter, Latrobe and Twilight Payment) 4 lengths back. Once again, he made no impression in the last couple of furlongs and ran on one-paced.

From his #1 barrier he won't have much further to run, but he may have to work quite hard to be find a position in the first bunch, where he prefers it. Even were he to get that spot, that some runner in the huge field couldn't run him down in the straight - given his lack of speed - seems quite unlikely. I think he'll finish somewhere from 4th-14th (the wide range is getting a position vs on the fence mid-field).

walkermac

4th November 2019, 02:32 PM

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Sound-Check_20-10-2018_GEN_Caulfield__495-734x460.jpg

Sound
6yo BR/BL Horse
Lando (GER) - Sky Dancing (IRE) [By Exit To Nowhere (USA)]

24s: 7-2-1

It all went wrong for Sound/Sound Check last season. His final race before departure was the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin. He finished just a neck behind Best Solution, an Irish-bred globetrotter that would soon join him in Australia for a Cups tilt. Best Solution would go on to win the 2018 Caulfield Cup and - despite a 2kg swing in his favour and the race being over the same distance - Sound proved wisely unloved in the betting, finishing 10 lengths back in 12th position.

Aside from one trip to Italy, all his racing was in Germany. Perhaps the travel didn't suit. It didn't go any better for him in the Melbourne Cup. He travelled among the frontrunners for much of the race but was taken via the carpark on the turn, dropping 15 spots over a couple hundred metres. He ended up 18th after not running on in the straight.

He stayed on in Australia after last year's Cup and endeavored to regroup for an Autumn campaign. His lead-up races weren't encouraging and the end result wasn't any different: a meek 8th in the Sydney Cup. No other horses from this year's Sydney Cup have made the Melbourne Cup field. Sound has only qualified by virtue of his performance in Berlin last year.

He's started at over $100 in each of his three races so far this season. The first two were over unfavourable distance and the latest was the Caulfield Cup. Though the 10th place finish looks disappointing, he was only 4 lengths off Mer De Glace and was severely checked in the straight: https://youtu.be/esSOa1T_6M4?t=120. He was in the front wall of horses around the turn, but being widest he lost a length. Into the straight he was then sandwiched between Vow And Declare and Red Verdon, losing all momentum and getting shot out the back. We never actually got to see what he could do and - all things considered - he went pretty well. His run looked as good as Mustajeer's, who is at $15 tomorrow while Sound languishes at $100.

On that scant claim though, it's hard to overturn the burden of evidence of all his poor runs in Australia. His trainer contends that his Autumn form is misleading, citing a poor ride that would have otherwise seen him come 2nd, and feet issues which meant that each race preparation was rushed. He was confident coming in to Spring that Sound would show his true colours.

According to his figures, Sound has a Dosage Profile of (2-1-7-0-0), with DI of 1.86 and CD of 0.5. That gives a preferred distance indication of 2100m. His Conduit Mare Profile hints at a a little further: (3-6-5-8-8) with Speed 9 and Stamina 16. His Conduit Index is 0.59 and Triads are (14-19-21). I'd say that's a good 3200m profile. His record over 2800m+ (even including his heretofore dire Australian form) is pretty good: 3w-1p from 7 starts.

Hoping for the best and expecting the worst sums things up. I certainly think he should be shorter than $100 but given all the black marks I'd anticipate him finishing somewhere in the teens rather than at the top.

walkermac

4th November 2019, 04:15 PM

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/The-Chosen-One-200419-3703-734x460.jpg

The Chosen One
4yo B Horse
Savabeel (AUS) - The Glitzy One (AUS) [By Flying Spur (AUS)]

16s: 5-2-0

The Chosen One had a big Summer and Autumn, running 8 times over 15,500m of racing. The bulk of that was in New Zealand where, following a truncated 3yo Spring campaign that started with two victories on debut, he had some up-and-down performances that corresponded with the size of the prize of offer.

Following a win in the Group 3 2000m Manawatu Classic (http://www.racingreplays.co.nz/media/201903/20190330MTU04_BB.mp4) Murray Baker tried his luck in the Australian Derby. Per his Jockey Blake Shinn: "I thought he ran a tremendous race, I had to take the horse back to negate the wide draw, they didn’t go that fast, he made a searching run from the 650m and he hit the line strongly.": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktwlH_Z6WPQ. He fell 3.7 lengths short in that Australian Derby, but it worked a treat in his next race with victory in the Frank Packer: "We made another searching run on him but we were coming back 400m in trip so I was mindful of that. He did the job nicely, he is a lovely horse."

He spelled back in New Zealand before returning to Australia this Spring. He began in the Feehan Stakes and continued into the Underwood, each of them too short for his pedigree and the running style he earlier saw success with.

It's his next 3 races which are the telling ones. The Chosen One won the Herbert Power, beating Prince Of Arran by 0.5kg and earning ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnQEfIIoKH4. It was back to script: running towards the rear and then putting on a burst in the finishing straight. The leading pair put 3 lengths on the rest of the them, though they will meet each other in the Cup with The Chosen One 1.5kg worse off. This victory also meant that he passed the first ballot clause and picked up a 0.5kg penalty.

Drawing barrier 18 in the Caulfield Cup (as he has for the Melbourne Cup) he was the widest runner and loped over to be at the tail of the field, trailing Mustajeer and Mer De Glace. When it came time to push the button he didn't have the pace needed to match these higher class horses and finished a 4-length 9th: https://youtu.be/esSOa1T_6M4?t=104.

I don't know why he elected to run in the Hotham Handicap. By the time all the chips fell, there was no way he could be pushed out of the Melbourne Cup field. It seems a very odd decision to choose to exhaust your horse a couple of days out from the Melbourne Cup. To run tomake the field is understandable, but...*shrug*. His 5th place finish, 8 lengths adrift, may be some indication that he tanked it, but the Steward's Report has it that he was unsettled: needing resaddling at the barrier and having to be restrained over the early and middle stages.

It's certainly not the best form to carry into the Cup and there must be some query over the distance, given only one success > 2000m and otherwise plenty of disappointment.

His Dosage Profile is (6-15-19-2-4) with DI 1.97 and CD 0.37; so around 2400m - or slightly longer, given the 4 Professional points - looks ideal. He also reaches that distance without sacrificing much at all in the speed categories. His Conduit Mare Profile is (6-4-0-8-8) with Speed 10, Stamina 16, Index 0.67 and Triads (10-12-16). Around the 2800m mark looks ideal. The 6 in the Brilliant position also agrees by this measure that he has some toe. In the final field, very few have as many pointers of speed, and even less maintaining their aptitude over distance.

I think this might all be a year too early though. I don't understand the Hotham run at all and can't see how that puts him in peak condition. Given his race style he'll have to be ridden for luck, so why lessen your odds? There are a few timelines in our multidimensional universe where he trots to the running rail from the start, coasts behind the field running which are going at a brutal pace and then takes a shortcut up the inside to, without encountering any interference to just triumph on the line....but I can't see it happening in this one. The current odds ($67) are pretty accurate; should finish back in the late teens to last range.

walkermac

4th November 2019, 05:26 PM

https://cdn.racenet.com.au/images/news/news_images/780w/804458.jpg

Youngstar
5yo B Mare
High Chaparral (IRE) - Starspangled (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]

21s: 4-1-4

I did last year's profile on Youngstar ahead of her Caulfield Cup performance. I queried whether she'd even go on to the Melbourne Cup, given that her trainer Chris Waller had said Caulfield was her grand final. Well, one of us is some kind of genius after I wrote "[w]ith a light weight in the Melbourne Cup I could imagine her jetting through on the line for 4th or 5th." (Hint: it's Waller, not me: she did what I said but finished 6th). Not bad for an afterthought...

She's gone up just 0.5kg for this renewal: getting back 0.5kg from Prince Of Arran and 6.5kg from Cross Counter (sort of: it's more like 2.5kg when taking his natural aging into account) among those who finished in front of her last year. For some reason, she's 0.5kg worse off with respect to the horse that finished immediately in front of her, Finche.

Per her trainer, she's since put on 20kg of muscle. In hindsight he believes he tried her a year early, over-enthused by her placing behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. Were she in the same form as last year you might expect much the same result this time around. Her Australian Official Handicap has dropped 3 points since last year though. Let's take a look....

Following the 2018 Melbourne Cup she spelled 'til Autumn and had a couple of disappointing runs before wrapping it up 'til Spring. Some barrier trials and "why bother" runs began her campaign with Waller subscribing to the theory that you should risk a horse running in races it has no chance in before its metre-age ticks over a certain point and it suddenly becomes fit. Like how you always see 800m runners contesting sprint races in the IAAF Diamond League ahead of the Olympics... /s

It's time to pay attention again in the Hill Stakes, over 2000m: https://youtu.be/7_JwSmG2NyU?t=94. It's not impressive. Makes very little ground in the straight where you would anticipate her to be doing her best work.

Her final lead-up race is in the 2600m St Leger Stakes with Youngstar initially racing midfield courtesy of the inside barrier, before she drifts back slightly, perhaps hoping to find the back from where she can subsequently swing out. She's still stuck on the rail however and Bowman is held up for almost the entirety of the straight. There's a crack of an opening in the last 100m and she looks to flatten out but makes little impression on the winner or the rest of the challengers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GDXxPrMgDQ.

No other runner from this race qualified for the Melbourne Cup. The only other starter she ran against this Spring was her stablemate Finche, both in the unsuited 1600m Chelmsford Stakes.

Youngstar actually had the oldest qualifying performance per the last Order of Entry, which went back to her Queensland Oaks win in May 2018. That was also her last victory. The 2.7L 3rd in the St Leger Stakes was both her closest and best finish this year, covering 8 races. Her form is not good.

Her Dosage Profile is (3-6-33-4-2) with DI 1.13 and CD 0.08. That implies 3300m. Her Conduit Mare Profile is (6-6-3-9-8), with Speed 12, Stamina 17, Index 0.75 and Triads (15-18-20). I defer to the Conduit Mare Profile and this says 2100m is more likely. Above all I defer to the horse's actual performances and they say she's 3w-2p:7s at 1885m - 2200m.

Waller could be playing four dimensional chess here, but even if he's aiming for her to peak on Cup Day, you'd expect a skerrick of evidence that Youngstar was responding well to that training. So far there's been anything but. Consequently she's a "no" from me. I think she'll be finishing mid to late teens.

...two to go! Hoping to do them quite late tonight

UselessBettor

4th November 2019, 07:12 PM

In order of preference for me (ratings at the start with 0.0 being best):

0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN)
0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
1.5 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
2.5 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)
2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
2.5 FINCHE (GB)
2.5 MUSTAJEER (GB)
3.0 VOW AND DECLARE
9.9 CROSS COUNTER

I played with the ratings a bit and an alternate set of selections have come out (same selections different order):

0.0 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
0.5 MER DE GLACE (JPN)
0.5 DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
0.5 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
1.0 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
1.0 SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
1.0 FINCHE (GB)
1.0 MUSTAJEER (GB)
1.5 VOW AND DECLARE
2.0 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)

Lets see which performs better :)

UselessBettor

4th November 2019, 08:12 PM

Looking at TRB's ratings on betfair Hub they said that 84% of all winners in the Melbourne cup have a rating of 106+ in their ratings. That seems like a good yard stick to use as a filter:

There were only 8 which made the rating:
#2 Mer De Glace
#4 Mirage Dancer
#11 Finche
#12 Prince Of Arran
#14 Downdraft
#18 Surprise Baby
#19 Constantinople
#23 Vow And Declare

Lets compare that to the list:

0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN)
0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
1.5 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) ****** NOT IN THE LIST
2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
2.5 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) ******** NOT IN THE LIST
2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
2.5 FINCHE (GB)
2.5 MUSTAJEER (GB) *********** NOT IN THE LIST
3.0 VOW AND DECLARE
9.9 CROSS COUNTER ******** NOT IN THE LIST

That leaves us with only 7 horses:

0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN)
0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
2.5 FINCHE (GB)
3.0 VOW AND DECLARE

I am reading a lot about MER DE GLACE not being able to make the distance. I am worried about VOW AND DECLARE, SURPRISE BABY and DOWNDRAFT drawing too wide.

That leaves us with these three as the top selections:

0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
2.5 FINCHE (GB)

These are the ones I might have a small bet on.

walkermac

5th November 2019, 12:11 AM

https://www.justhorseracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/r7_rostropovich_0606-734x460.jpg

Rostropovich
4yo B Gelding
Frankel (GB) - Tyranny (GB) [By Machiavellian (USA)]

18s: 4-2-2

He hasn't met with a whole lot of success since arriving in Australia. His first run he got smacked by Winx in last year's Cox Plate. Following that was the Melbourne Cup where he performed quite admirably, finishing in 5th position, 4.5L from the leader. In his 2018 profile I wrote that he was likely handicapped 2-3kg lighter than he should be and thought he might struggle to make the distance; if he drew well and had an easy race it was possible he could be nursed to the line and might nab get a placing. Things didn't quite go to plan when he drew barrier 21 and was stuck 3-wide the trip, but he did reasonably well regardless.

Following The Cup they tried their luck in the Hong Kong Vase, with the field including Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux, as well as Prince Of Arran, Latrobe and Miracle Dancer. Once again Rostropovich was forced to race wide and weakened in the straight, but he still finished ahead of the others who had come via Melbourne. He was just ahead of Prince Of Arran with a 2kg advantage (he now carries 1kg more in The Cup), Latrobe was 2 lengths back at level weights (as is the case tomorrow) and Miracle Dancer didn't run on.

He headed back to Australia where his training was taken over by Hayes, Hayes, Dabernig. He resumed in the Makybe Diva, finishing the 1600m in 7th place 3.2L behind.

He was gelded before his next run in the Turnbull Stakes, though it didn't turn around his fortune. He was the 9th place finisher over the more favourable 2000m trip, once again pulling a bad barrier. Rostropovich had every chance to do something in the straight but made no impact on any of the other runners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe-vi1yMHcA

His final lead-up was the Caulfield Cup where he tried something different: it wasn't not drawing a bad barrier; he did that again. Caught wide once more, he rode up to be off the leader. The end result was still the same though: showing very little in the straight and finishing towards the tail of the field.

Somewhat amazingly, his rating is still 109 - the same rating as he held going in to last year's race. Even if that rating were accurate, he's carrying 2kg more than he should when compared to Cross Counter. Rostropovich could carry a feather and it probably wouldn't matter, the way he's going.

I think he did well last year on account of a very favourable weight, made even more favourable by the conditions. He appears to be far better suited to 2000m-2500m and will again be tested by the Cup distance. His terrible form of late means he's likely to finish among the last couple.

walkermac

5th November 2019, 01:33 AM

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/SouthernFranceUK_Web.gif

Southern France
4yo B Horse
Galileo (IRE) - Alta Anna (FR) [By Anabaa (USA)]

14s: 3-3-3

The final horse to profile (yay) is Southern France. To recommend him: a narrow 2nd to Stradivarius (is there any other kind?) and a clear victory over Downdraft. These races were part of a Cup campaign that has extended back to April.

The first of these was the 2800m Vintage Crop Stakes, where he mixed it with some familiar candidates: Master Of Reality won, just edging out Mustajeer who beat Southern France by a length and Twilight Payment by another: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGy9lOOH3r8

The impressive run against Stradivarius was next, again over 2800m, in the Yorkshire Cup Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WTEeJ2OB7U. We only see the last couple of furlongs, but the pair put a margin on the rest of the field. The British Horseracing Authority gave Southern France a 115 performance rating for this run.

He was back down to Earth with his next performance in the Hardwicke Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ4ZQzDeuhg. He was 8 lengths adrift of Defoe, with Mirage Dancer coming in 3rd, just 1.5 lengths from the winner. This was at even weights between Southern France and Mirage Dancer, as it will be in the Melbourne Cup. There is little different between the two races, save this one being 400m shorter, but he only earned himself a 104 performance rating this time out. Perhaps Stradivarius coaxed him along to greater heights in the previous race by giving him something just ahead to chase. The next time he met Stradivarius - over 2 miles this time - it didn't work out that way. There were other challengers for him to taunt and Southern France was left in their collective dust, finishing 9 lengths back this time (and 7 behind Cross Counter; though he'll have 2kg back in his favour come 3pm).

Between those two races was the 2800m Curragh Cup and it was Southern France's turn to just beat Mustajeer, but they were both 3 lengths behind Twilight Payment and Latrobe.

Next: let's shuffle them up and give Southern France a win. His first Group victory..... This time make him beat Master Of Reality. What fun! It almost seems like they're taking turns. There's very little in the way of consistency to draw from. Downdraft is new on the scene though, with Southern France beating him by 2 lengths, and Downdraft beating Master Of Reality by the same. That was the St Leger Trial Stakes, for all that's worth, but Downdraft will get a positive 2kg swing in the Cup.

Finally it was the Irish St Leger which I've written umpteen times about, given all the candidates it featured. They all finished in a clump with Southern France at the leading edge.

So how to sum that all up? How about: ¯\_;)_/¯

Southern France seemed to be on an upward trajectory with his latter performances there, so you could put him slightly ahead on that count. Unfortunately we don't know how he travelled nor how he's handled the switch to Ciaron Maher's yard. Apparently Aiden O'Brien has been quite forthcoming with advice on his old charge so there shouldn't have been too much disruption.

He's run 3 races at greater than 2900m for one placing. Looking at the pedigree figures, his Dosage Profile is (9-2-23-12-0) with DI 0.96 and CD 0.17. This indicates that around 3000m would be good. His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-6-5-10-8) with Speed 10, Stamina 18, Index 0.61 and Triads (15-21-23) implies that even longer would be fine. Altogether he may be slightly too dour to suit The Cup.

Something to be careful of: he's never won first up. Each of his wins were from backing up within 3 weeks of the previous. Basically he could finish just about anywhere in the field without it being terribly surprising. I see other candidates far more likelier to finish higher though and would think it likely he'll be somewhere between 5th and 15th.

walkermac

5th November 2019, 03:13 AM

Done!

Here's a link to each profile, if it's of interest:

<table><tbody><tr><td>1</td><td>CROSS COUNTER (GB) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378261&postcount=130)</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378175&postcount=110)</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378281&postcount=137)</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378263&postcount=132)</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378294&postcount=144)</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378165&postcount=105)</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>LATROBE (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378260&postcount=129)</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>MUSTAJEER (GB) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378134&postcount=103)</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378293&postcount=143)</td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378202&postcount=119)</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>FINCHE (GB) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378277&postcount=136)</td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378115&postcount=101)</td></tr> <tr><td>13</td><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378182&postcount=111)</td></tr> <tr><td>14</td><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378252&postcount=127)</td></tr> <tr><td>15</td><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378105&postcount=98)</td></tr> <tr><td>16</td><td>NEUFBOSC (FR) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378249&postcount=125)</td></tr> <tr><td>17</td><td>SOUND (GER) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378282&postcount=138)</td></tr> <tr><td>18</td><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=377928&postcount=65)</td></tr> <tr><td>19</td><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378011&postcount=83)</td></tr> <tr><td>20</td><td>IL PARADISO (USA) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378267&postcount=135)</td></tr> <tr><td>21</td><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=377936&postcount=68)</td></tr> <tr><td>22</td><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378284&postcount=139)</td></tr> <tr><td>23</td><td>VOW AND DECLARE (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378183&postcount=112)</td></tr> <tr><td>24</td><td>YOUNGSTAR (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=378285&postcount=140)</td></tr></tbody></table>
I suppose all that's left is my tips. Here's my Top 10 and my stab at the order in which they'll finish:

1st - CROSS COUNTER (GB)
2nd - IL PARADISO (USA)
3rd - DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
4th - MIRAGE DANCER (GB)
5th - PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
6th - FINCHE (GB)
7th - MAGIC WAND (IRE)
8th - RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)
9th - CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
10th - MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)

One of the first 3 to win; some combination of the first 5 to be the trifecta; some combination of the first 6 to be the First Four.

I felt really bad about leaving out Surprise Baby and Vow And Declare....

I've ignored 'the system'. Hopefully I'm not punished for my treachery. I may post it one last time if there are any notable odds changes, or post-race to review.

My tips might turn out to be rubbish but hopefully folk have enjoyed seeing my workings. Fingers crossed for a fair race and all horses and jockeys coming home safely. Good luck with your investments :)

UselessBettor

5th November 2019, 06:40 AM

walkermac,

You got it done nice work. I sat here reading through them all again this morning.

I can't believe you ignored the system. Its to your own peril :)

Thanks for the hard work again this year.

piratebird

5th November 2019, 10:10 AM

Thanks for the most informative site ever on this forum. Take a bow, mate.

evajb001

5th November 2019, 10:38 AM

My first 4 had Master of Reality, Southern France, Constantinople and Il Paradiso to win.

Sprinkled for the placings were Cross Counter, Prince of Arran, Finche, Raymond Tusk, Downdraft and Mirage Dancer.

I just couldn't bring myself to include the aussie hopefules like surprise baby and vow and declare, they just seem over-supported by locals and overbet. Plus I think in their leadup runs they were either relatively soft fields or they had the most luck in those runs compared to others.

Anyhow best of luck to everyone and seriously another magnificent thread again this year wmac, everyone certainly appreciates the lengths you go to and the information you've put together. Super effort.

jose

5th November 2019, 01:52 PM

Absolutely splendid effort WM.
More power to you and I hope you Get your share of some of the exotics.

walkermac

5th November 2019, 02:35 PM

Last one ahead of the race. Here are the official VOP prices half an hour out.

https://i.ibb.co/hyHBz4x/Screen1.png (https://ibb.co/vHm3nTC)
https://i.ibb.co/xXdBwhG/Screen2.png (https://ibb.co/JmgG8n2)

Here are the top two rungs of 'the system' (those with a Stamina 17 figure in bold):
CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
FINCHE (GB)
MUSTAJEER (GB)
VOW AND DECLARE
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)
LATROBE (IRE)
DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)

Hardest race to pick for a while!

jose

5th November 2019, 03:24 PM

Hope you got some of that trifecta the "system" threw up WM.
Top job.

walkermac

5th November 2019, 03:34 PM

So per this system, the winner comes from: Mer De Glace, Vow And Declare, Mirage Dancer, Downdraft, or Cross Counter.

Combine it with our 'the system' and the winner is "clearly" one of Downdraft and Vow And Declare. ...though you'll note that there's no way for a debuting foreign raider to be a selection per Aspro, so his system would have misfired the previous two years. Per 'the system', the best foreign debuting candidates are Master Of Reality and Latrobe.
<str></str><str><str></str></str>I've written a lot of rubbish on this thread; I wish I listened to this particular piece of rubbish! ;)

I didn't mind my pick Cross Counter's run. I don't think what seemed to be a very slow pace would have suited. I think it was Constantinople who veered into his way early in the straight and caused him to lose momentum. It took him a while to rebalance and once he did - for a moment there - I thought he was going to blitz his way through. Unfortunately he started laying in and had to be straightened up.

Depending on how this protest goes, I might have bet around all the winners! I'll do some reviewing late tonight :)

Shaun

5th November 2019, 03:37 PM

I played with the ratings a bit and an alternate set of selections have come out (same selections different order):

0.0 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 3RD
0.5 MER DE GLACE (JPN)
0.5 DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
0.5 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
1.0 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 2ND
1.0 SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
1.0 FINCHE (GB)
1.0 MUSTAJEER (GB)
1.5 VOW AND DECLARE 1ST
2.0 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)

Lets see which performs better :)Nice

UselessBettor

5th November 2019, 06:49 PM

I am reading a lot about MER DE GLACE not being able to make the distance. I am worried about VOW AND DECLARE, SURPRISE BABY and DOWNDRAFT drawing too wide.

And this is why I use systems and not my own feel. I eliminated the winner just on personal choice. I made about $140 on the race but the day is looking very profitable.

The Ocho

5th November 2019, 10:00 PM

Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I played with the ratings a bit and an alternate set of selections have come out (same selections different order):

0.0 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 3RD
0.5 MER DE GLACE (JPN)
0.5 DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
0.5 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
1.0 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 2ND
1.0 SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
1.0 FINCHE (GB)
1.0 MUSTAJEER (GB)
1.5 VOW AND DECLARE 1ST
2.0 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)

Lets see which performs better

Nice
Unfortunately, for the sake of posterity, the protest between 4 v 2 was upheld so finishing order 23, 12, 20, 3 - So no trifecta.

But the system got the winner. Well done walkermac!

walkermac

5th November 2019, 10:51 PM

Here is the 2019 Melbourne Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2GnR4YRNmE

Here are the final results:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Finish</td><td>No.</td><td>Horse</td><td>Trainer</td><td>Jockey</td><td>Margin</td><td>Bar.</td><td>Weight</td><td>Penalty</td><td>Starting Price</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>23</td><td>VOW AND DECLARE </td><td>Danny O'Brien</td><td>Craig Williams</td><td></td><td>21</td><td>52kg</td><td></td><td>$11</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>12</td><td>PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) </td><td>Charlie Fellowes</td><td>Michael Walker</td><td>0.2L</td><td>8</td><td>54kg</td><td>1.0kg</td><td>$17</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>20</td><td>IL PARADISO (USA) </td><td>Aidan O'Brien</td><td>Wayne Lordan</td><td>0.3L</td><td>17</td><td>52.5kg</td><td></td><td>$15</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>3</td><td>MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) </td><td>Joseph O'Brien</td><td>Frankie Dettori</td><td>0.4L</td><td>1</td><td>55.5kg</td><td></td><td>$26</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>18</td><td>SURPRISE BABY (NZ) </td><td>Paul Preusker</td><td>Jordan Childs</td><td>0.9L</td><td>20</td><td>53.5kg</td><td>1.0kg</td><td>$12</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>2</td><td>MER DE GLACE (JPN) </td><td>Hisashi Shimizu</td><td>Damian Lane</td><td>1.2L</td><td>2</td><td>56kg</td><td>1.0kg</td><td>$9.50</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>11</td><td>FINCHE (GB) </td><td>Chris Waller</td><td>Kerrin McEvoy</td><td>1.4L</td><td>4</td><td>54kg</td><td></td><td>$8.50F</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>1</td><td>CROSS COUNTER (GB) </td><td>Charlie Appleby</td><td>William Buick</td><td>1.6L</td><td>5</td><td>57.5kg</td><td></td><td>$13</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>21</td><td>STEEL PRINCE (IRE) </td><td>Anthony Freedman</td><td>Brett Prebble</td><td>2.1L</td><td>16</td><td>52.5kg</td><td></td><td>$61</td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>15</td><td>MAGIC WAND (IRE) </td><td>Aidan O'Brien</td><td>Ryan Moore</td><td>3.6L</td><td>24</td><td>53.5kg</td><td></td><td>$26</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>10</td><td>TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) </td><td>Joseph O'Brien</td><td>Hugh Bowman</td><td>3.8L</td><td>19</td><td>55kg</td><td></td><td>$41</td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>17</td><td>SOUND (GER) </td><td>Michael Moroney</td><td>James Winks</td><td>3.9L</td><td>10</td><td>53.5kg</td><td></td><td>$91</td></tr> <tr><td>13</td><td>19</td><td>CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) </td><td>David & B Hayes & T Dabernig</td><td>Joao Moreira</td><td>4.1L</td><td>7</td><td>52.5kg</td><td></td><td>$9.50</td></tr> <tr><td>14</td><td>4</td><td>MIRAGE DANCER (GB) </td><td>Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young</td><td>Ben Melham</td><td>4.3L</td><td>13</td><td>55.5kg</td><td></td><td>$51</td></tr> <tr><td>15</td><td>6</td><td>HUNTING HORN (IRE) </td><td>Aidan O'Brien</td><td>Seamie Heffernan</td><td>4.5L</td><td>11</td><td>55kg</td><td></td><td>$51</td></tr> <tr><td>16</td><td>13</td><td>RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) </td><td>Richard Hannon</td><td>Jamie Spencer</td><td>5L</td><td>3</td><td>54kg</td><td></td><td>$21</td></tr> <tr><td>17</td><td>22</td><td>THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) </td><td>Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman</td><td>Tim Clark</td><td>5.2L</td><td>18</td><td>52kg</td><td>0.5kg</td><td>$31</td></tr> <tr><td>18</td><td>7</td><td>LATROBE (IRE) </td><td>Joseph O'Brien</td><td>James McDonald</td><td>6.45L</td><td>22</td><td>55kg</td><td></td><td>$21</td></tr> <tr><td>19</td><td>5</td><td>SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) </td><td>Ciaron Maher & David Eustace</td><td>Mark Zahra</td><td>6.55L</td><td>14</td><td>55.5kg</td><td></td><td>$26</td></tr> <tr><td>20</td><td>24</td><td>YOUNGSTAR </td><td>Chris Waller</td><td>Tommy Berry</td><td>7.3L</td><td>9</td><td>52kg</td><td></td><td>$31</td></tr> <tr><td>21</td><td>16</td><td>NEUFBOSC (FR) </td><td>David & B Hayes & T Dabernig</td><td>Luke Nolen</td><td>8.3L</td><td>23</td><td>53.5kg</td><td></td><td>$101</td></tr> <tr><td>22</td><td>14</td><td>DOWNDRAFT (IRE) </td><td>Joseph O'Brien</td><td>John Allen</td><td>8.6L</td><td>15</td><td>53.5kg</td><td></td><td>$21</td></tr> <tr><td>23</td><td>8</td><td>MUSTAJEER (GB) </td><td>Kris Lees</td><td>Damien Oliver</td><td>10.85L</td><td>6</td><td>55kg</td><td></td><td>$19</td></tr> <tr><td>24</td><td>9</td><td>ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) </td><td>David & B Hayes & T Dabernig</td><td>Dwayne Dunn</td><td>40.85L</td><td>12</td><td>55kg</td><td></td><td>$41</td></tr></tbody></table>

The race was run in 3'24.76 - there have only been two slower this century: Americain on Slow and Makybe Diva's middle title, also on a Soft 5. It wasn't just due to the track though: last year's track was a Soft 6 but the race was 3.5s quicker. Makybe Diva's last Cup was also on a Soft 5 and was 5 seconds quicker.

The 600m sectional was 34.75s - there have only been two quicker these past 10 years (since they were reported). 2012's Green Moon was in 34.07s and 2015's Prince Of Penzance was in 34.4s. They obviously had fuel left to burn.

The field was very slow from the 2200m through to the 1000m mark. The winning horses were able to position themselves at the front of the pack during this slow section. They got a rest and made it difficult for others to run them down in the straight. The horses that were 2nd, 3rd and 4th at the 1400m mark went on to be 1st, 2nd and 3rd across the line.

Because fatigue was not really a factor the field finished very close together; the first 12 finishers were within 4 lengths. The previous lowest place to finish within 4 lengths (this century) was 9th. The average distance a 12th place horse finished behind the winner prior to this renewal was 10.8 lengths.

The winner was very atypical given that it wasn't really a staying contest. Of the past 20 winners, Vow And Declare had the highest: Dosage Index, Centre of Distribution, and Conduit Index; and the lowest: Stamina figure (equal), third triad and difference between third and first triad. These are all indicators that a horse is more suited to shorter rather than longer races.

All credit to the placing jockeys: they turned the race into the kind of contest that would best suit their mounts. Brickbats for the other jockeys whom were unsuited by this turn of events: they just sat back and let it turn into a procession.

Can't really look at barrier distances because data for several horses is clearly wrong. They currently have Constantinople doing a 200m sectional in just over 9 seconds and running 202m further, for example.

'The system' had the winner on its top rung (among 5 horses). Master Of Reality slipped off the second rung inside the last few minutes with his price wound out to $26. So "posterity" didn't lose the trifecta on a protest! :D

The Conduit Mare Stamina 17 figure wasn't a factor this year given that stamina wasn't required.

Aspro's Melbourne Cup System had the winner among its shortlist also, so it does indeed sift the best local candidates.

The end!