Thoughts On Valuebet

[stacky69]

Hi All, just like to get everyone's thoughts on Valuebet. Got a friend l go to the track with occasionally and he informed me that he purchased 20 credits (for SMS) to "test" it out. Here's the breakdown:

Selections: 20
Winners: 1 @ $5.10 (and there were two win selections in the race)
Placings: 8 (2 placings $2.30 & $2.70, the rest big unders)
Exotics: 1 x Trif @ $17.40, 1 x Quin @ $6.90

Hardly seems like 'value' to me...

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: stacky69 on 2004-03-19 12:11 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Those figures don't surprise me one little bit.

Yeah! after much procrastination would have to agree with sportznut's educated eye.

[sentabool]

I have been using Valuebet most Saturdays since mid Jan. I back all suggested winners for a win plus any suggested selections to include in multiples for a win if they are >$10. I subscribe only to Syd, Melb, Bris & Adel on Saturdays and public holdidays.

Results : -

Bets 254
Return (at flat stakes) 293
Winners 34
Win Strike 13.4%
Av win price $8.62
POT (flat) 15.3%

Fair results after having a very average run in the last few weeks up until the last in Sydney on Sat when Daniels the Man ($22) was a suggested multiple.

For me their selections seem to complement my betting selections from other sources - ie often have different selections - so would appear to provide some diversification for me.

I don't bet multiples (yet) but they do get many placegetters at good odds.

For mine the jury is still out. I'll probably give them another few months.

[sportznut]

What about the cost of all the phone calls??? Isn't it $4.40 a call or is there some other way you can get their selections?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-22 09:38 ]</font>

[easy pick]

yes sportznut try 1800 reverse..

[goldmember]

I think anybody who pays for race tips has more money than brains, if you can't pick winners yourself you should't be punting.

cheers

[sentabool]

You can get Valuebet SMS at $350 for 100 credits over the internet.

As for paying for tips/ratings - I look at it as outsourcing much of the hard work which I don't have time to do. I subscribe to numerous services as well as having my own selection methods.

Anyway, when you are making money from a service the cost becomes more insignificant as you increase turnover.

For mine the seemingly high cost of Valuebet is an R&D cost I'm happy to wear for a period of evaluation.

[stacky69]

Goldmember, here here (like they say in parliment), that's what l told my friend...get back to using your own methods to pick winners.

[Luckyboy]

Not sure who has seen this but found this article on the Sky Channel website for Valuebet...

SUMMARY OF FIRST YEARS RESULTS
12/2/2003 TO 11/2/2004
(Saturdays and National Public Holidays)

Results are based on a wagering strategy first outlined in a metropolitan daily newspaper in April 2003.

Whilst it would have been easy to show successful results by selectively interpreting past results, to maintain integrity we have used the same methodology outlined in the newspaper article.

Value Bet does not advocate any particular approach to using selections. That is the client's decision. You may prefer win bets only, or even place bets.

The survey assumes a $100 win bet on each race where Value Bet selections are available.

If there is one Value Bet selection the bet is $100 win. If there are two recommended the bet is $50 win on each. If there are three selections the bet is $33 win on each.

For multiples the survey assumes an additional investment of $100 in boxed trifectas, i.e. a total investment of $200 per race.

Win selections are included in every box trifecta.

For example, if the Value Bet selection is no. 1, and for multiples add 2, 3 and 4 we take the following boxed trifectas:
1 2 3
1 2 4
1 3 4

But not 2 3 4 because the win selection is not included in this combination. Where there are two or more win selections at least one of them is included in each trifecta box.

SUMMARY
Results are based on Saturday and Public Holiday meetings as pools are largest and least subject to being affected by Value Bet wagers.

Opening Bank: $2,000
Trading Profit: $27,832
Cost of Calls @ $4.40: $4,675
Annual Profit: $23,157 or 1,157%

It must be stressed that it is not possible to guarantee that this profit can be maintained in the future.

Makes you want to sign up doesn't it?


Luckyboy

[goldmember]

How many people can afford $100 a race,does that mean @$10 a race profit would be $2,315.70 -less phone calls@$4.40 = $4,675 Loss of $2,360 over 12 moths know . mmmm
Makes me want to sign up right now!!!

cheers.

[nedkelly]

I'd like to be able to tae a bet on what the valuebet is....
I reckon I can spot it everytime.....

[Desi]

$100 win bets, just under $5000 for phone calls for the year..mate, I am definitely small time...the best of luck to you...

[sportznut]

These figures are only for Saturdays and Public Holidays. Imagine the Phone Bill if you used it EVERY day. I think it works out at around $80 a day just on phone calls!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-25 08:27 ]</font>