A THEORY OF THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPING .

[darkydog2002]

Could someone give me some information on this book by Joe Keating?
Very much appreciated.
Cheers.
darky.

[topsy99]

not heard of it. probably another theory. enough to drive us crazy.
finally got another neptune today at $20 at 10yo on a wet track i wonder what theory that falls into.
(listed horse > 10/1)

[darkydog2002]

Thanks for the reply Topsy99.
Good on you with that bet.Those good prices sure help don,t they.
Cheers.
darky.

[fast eddy]

Darky, Never heard of it, but try:
The Horseman's Bookshop & Gallery
857 High St Armadale 3143
Melbourne
(03) 9509 4743
Email hbookshop@bigpond.com

[Imagele]

Topsy
If Another Neptune is still racing when he's twenty, will he still qualify under your system.
I think that was his 2nd win from his last 37 starts.
has he qualified as a bet under your rules for each of these past 37 runs?

[topsy99]

no. but in the race were 3 starters two of which qualified.
he beat all the others.
i also back good things that lose.
in yesterdays racing i bet two races one at armidale and another neptunes race.
in armidale i got third.

you could argue many things with horse racing but losing on a 20/1 shot is not a lot different to losing on a 3/1 shot.

another nepturen only seems to win over 1400 many of his starts are over 1600 and he doesdnt win over the distance.
but back on the theory or lack of.
on saturday if backed vereza lucky night road to heaven cahuita and could have had sky cuddle but wouldnt outlay on too many horses.
i accept your skepticism but i find that 4 or 5 winners on a limited selection method is about as good as i do when applying my best attention and much shorter prices but in this case love the odds.
my reason for pointing out another neptune is that his trainer has decided to keep racing him and this is good enough for me.
he doesnt win often but at least he wins now and again. i back a lot of horses that dont seem to ever win. so in this respect another neptune is a hero.
another way to drive yourself crazy as i was saying earlier in the post or perhaps drive others crazy.

[darkydog2002]

FAST EDDY..Thanks for your reply.
Its advertised in Sportsman.
Theres so much racing book rubbish out there that it would be good to get an opinion from someone who has brought it.
The trb site has a list of recommended books but I have all those.
Cheers and warmest regards.
darky.

[topsy99]

i agree with the previous poster.
the success of most books and systems in the application applied by the punter.
you have to be committeed and dedicated to really make them work.
i have bought a lot of books and have settled on my own system due to the time constraints and amount of fun gained from the hobby.
i realise i cant teach anyone else anything but i enjoy the successes of the forum and fellow punters.
good luck with the book but its a difficult game

[fast eddy]

On 2004-11-08 12:33, topsy99 wrote:
i have bought a lot of books and have settled on my own system due to the time constraints and amount of fun gained from the hobby.
i realise i cant teach anyone else anything but i enjoy the successes of the forum and fellow punters.


Topsy, you are selling yourself short. People can be taught if they open their minds. We never stop learning and everyone has something of value to contribute, as you have done and will continue to do.

[topsy99]

thanks. if i could impart any thoughts to anyone it is that we should reduce the number of races we are targeting.
go where there are known winners e.g. listed horses, recent winnersm good times, trackwork etc.

on a broad scale i target listed horses because 20 races a week on average are won by listed horses. there are 30 meetings a week with 8 races which is 240 races. only about 45 races have listed horses in them so i have eliminated 195 races already.
all i have to do is to be on the right horses. in country races most listed horses are over-bet that is shorter than they should be and dont present value.
of the 20 races a week that listed horses win
those horses have been placed in a listed or group race in 80% of cases.
so the field is narrowing isnt it.
if it is a long-winder like another neptune then i need over 10/1 to back it.
simple isnt it.
many horses like get going and centre fire both of whom won recently keep going around at bernborough odds in country meetings.
if we keep backing them we are going to lose our shirt.
at long odds i can accept losers.
if i have a contribution to make then these fundamentals are it.
dont bet too many races,
bet recent performers else look for good odds.

[Mark]

Topsy, please tell me you were on Sky Cuddle. Group 3 WFA winner 3 starts ago, & mentioned 3 times in the Stewards report at its most recent start. What a ridiculous price it was. :grin:

[Mark]

Sorry, slow Mark just realised the whole race was full of listed runners.

[topsy99]

no mark.
thanks for your interest (possibly a little facetious)
but missed it. had excuses but no cash no complaints.
missed the race due to watching austar and having races contracted out to channel 10 missed some of the races waiting for them to line up.
then finding they were replaying.
but wasnt fussed in the race due to a couple of reasons.
heavy backing for grand armee threw so many horses into the over 10/1 bracket that i found it hard to handle.
admittedly wasnt happy after missing it but there are plenty of other races aren't there and there will be other 50/1 shots.

had a good day though. nothing today by the way and tomorrow a couple at scone
coalminer in race 3 and centre fire in race 7 but will be looking for odds.
nothing at wodonga.
regards sky cuddle would have been viable at the odds.
but alas wasnt watching closely enough.
was gardening actually while i was doing the races.

[fast eddy]

Topsy, it looks like you have a formula for picking consistent winners/placegetters to me.

Successful punting

[Mark]

Topsy, sorry for bringing it up, not being facetious at all. I believe anyone that can come up with a different approach (Kenchar for instance) is bound to win in the long run. I won't bother in future.

[topsy99]

mark.
sorry didnt mean to offend.
please keep commenting.
i am a victim of my own rules.
in the case of sky cuddle as i said before it is a matter of application and when we break from our system it gets up and bites us.
in an earlier post i mentioned 80% but didnt finish the line.
of the listed and group winners that win 80% have been placed or won a listed or group race in the past 12 months.
i use the method to limit the amount of committment to racing as i am sure i am like everyone else we have a lot of other things to do.

p.s. sorry mark didnt mean to offend.

[Mark]

No worries Topsy, remember to keep outside that circle. :wink: