Group1 C.F. ORR STAKES 1400 M (Caul Feb12)

[Sportz]

CAUL R5-3.10 C.F. ORR STAKES 1400 M
($302000) WFA (GROUP 1)

1 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil N Rawiller 15 58
2 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman N Ryan (a) 10 58
3 PENTASTIC Colin Alderson B Shinn (a) 8 58
4 MR. MURPHY Lee Freedman D Gauci 7 58
5 REGAL ROLLER Clinton McDonald M Flaherty 6 58
6 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison D Dunn 5 58
7 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton V Hall 3 58
8 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted B E Johns 9 58
9 RIZON Cliff Brown G Childs 1 58
10 PRETORIUS (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 11 58
11 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman Steven King 4 55.5
12 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody L Nolen 13 55.5
13 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson D Nikolic 12 54.5
14 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil S W Arnold 14 54.5
15 DANEHILL EXPRESS Brian Mayfield-Smith D Oliver 2 54.5

[Mr ed]

Looks like Regal Roller is going to get the softest G1 lead of all time. I cant see any of these going with him early and he should get it all his own way. He is awesome here and any price over $3.00 is a good bet

[Raw Instinct]

I like Lad of the Manor and his first up run was about what I expected out of him just not what alot of others predicted, Regal Roller may get a softish lead but I still have questions about this horse sure he has won some good races but it was against the likes of Oscar Warrior I mean c'mon he is a solid horse but no superstar that is for certain. I just felt although I did expect him to lose first up it was a very average effort and was under pressure for along way maybe he just needed the run. Hard to knock the 3 yo's in this either any of them could win it and I wouldn't be surprised to see them even possibly triffecta the race at the moment I have a liking for Danehill Express just ahead of Savabeel and Not A Single Doubt after that Elvstroem should be tough aswell barrier is the biggest concern there. I like Rizon a little as place chance but the WFA scale puts me off of it would think it could certainly prduce a decent run 1st up though.

[brave chief]

I'm with the 3yo's too:

Savabeel
Danehill Express

[Duritz]

Regal Roller will not be beaten, if you blokes back anything else you're kidding yourselves.

[maverick1993]

I wouldnt be taking anything short about Regal Roller....not until he beats something worthy..
i like the 3yo's aswell ...the bottom 3 for me with one of the stayers running home like Elvis or Pentastic ..

[Duritz]

OK let me show you some sense:

Elvstroem

Will be on an Australia Cup prep. Ain't no WAY Tony will have him near fit for this race, and from barrier 15 he'll have to go back to the tail, or sit on a limb. NO ONE can sit ona limb at Caulfield and win, and if he goes back to last, he can't win. So, he can't win.

MUMMIFY

Same reasons as above without the barrier stuff. Also, he's a strong one pacer, not suited at 1400.

PENTASTIC

Whilst he likes it best dead, he likes Flemington, never been placed Caulfield (thoguh has run well here) but 1400 is too short also.

CASUAL PASS

Nice horse, but suspect will be going for races over more distance also, and isn't up to the class of the group one horses in this race.

LAD OF THE MANOR

Nice horse, not a group one WFA horse though.

MAKYBE DIVA

My favourite horse on the planet. Won a HEAP on her two years ago Melb Cup day. Love her. Champion. Best staying mare I have ever seen. CANNOT rap her enough, however she can't win over 1400m.

VOUVRAY

Also a nice mare, however not up to this. COULD make a group one horse in open company (QLD oaks doesn't count, not sure if it is G1 anyway) however again I suspect this is too short a trip.

SAVABEEL

The only horse who wouldn't surprise if won.

NOT A SINGLE DOUBT

Not G1 on last starts win.

DANEHILL EXPRESS

Will make a nice horse and trained by a genius, but doubt up to this yet.


The rest of them aren't up to this. Regal Roller just wins. I'll be having heaps on him

Good luck if you bet around him, and good punting.

Duritz.

[milbre]

REGAL ROLLER
DANEHILL EXPRESS
ELVSTROEM
CASUAL PASS

[Filante]

Duritz,

Some points to consider:

1. 3yos won the Orr Stakes six years in a row before last year - the weight advantage is significant.

2. Regal Roller was sluggish first up.

3. Danehill Express needed the run first up. He'll be much better tomorrow and he has winning form at Caulfield 1400m.

4. There's plenty of class around with Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate winners in the field.

I wouldn't be rushing to throw a stack of money on Regal Roller tomorrow.

Anyway, should be a great race. My numbers are:

15. Danehill Express
5. Regal Roller
14. Not a Single Doubt

I'm still unsure what to do with Savabeel.

Cheers & good luck,

F

ps. the Queensland Oaks is G1

[Duritz]

all good points except -

NONE of the big three (caulfield cup, melb, cox) will be ready tomorrow. regal roller was sluggish b/c he's being set for this.

anyway, we'll see tomorrow. I hope I'm not wrong after declaring him like this, but I really don't think I will be. I think he's as good a thing as I've seen on a metro track in a long time.

last time I made declarations this big, the horse was scratched!!! (cool trent!)

Good luck

Duritz

[Filante]

all good points except -

NONE of the big three (caulfield cup, melb, cox) will be ready tomorrow. regal roller was sluggish b/c he's being set for this.

anyway, we'll see tomorrow. I hope I'm not wrong after declaring him like this, but I really don't think I will be. I think he's as good a thing as I've seen on a metro track in a long time.

last time I made declarations this big, the horse was scratched!!! (cool trent!)

Good luck

Duritz

The best thing on a metro track tomorrow is Doomben R1 No.1 Foolish - have a look! - He's got about 12 lengths on them...

Probably lose now!

[Chrome Prince]

The best thing on a metro track tomorrow is Doomben R1 No.1 Foolish - have a look! - He's got about 12 lengths on them...

Probably lose now!

You could be right Filante, but I don't agree.
That win was at Toowoomba in a very average time and last 600m time.
Then Foolish and Taabinga met next start and Foolish was rolled in another average time.
And he's stepping up in distance again.
Where do you glean 12 lengths from?

[Duritz]

i'll look on my figs though i don't know the horses

[Duritz]

Well it didn't take long to look at the race. On their ratings so far, I'm in your camp Filante, it has lengths on them. There's an unraced on though, what do you know about it?

The topweight will kill the raced brigade on figures so far.

Duritz

[Filante]

You could be right Filante, but I don't agree.
That win was at Toowoomba in a very average time and last 600m time.
Where do you glean 12 lengths from?

Foolish ran 4th, 1.4 lengths away, in a strong Eagle Farm open 2yo event. The best run I can see from the rest is Latin Idol's 3nd beaten 5.5 len in an Ipswich maiden. On my ratings there's at least 12 lengths difference between those two runs.

I wouldn't be quick to knock the Toowoomba win either - he did beat 15 others that day.

Further, in terms of speed over the last 600m, look at the runs of horses 4 to 7 inclusive: they all drop off over shorter distances than tomorrow's 1350m.

Anyway...on my ratings Foolish is one of the best 2yos in Brisbane and far too good for these.

[Filante]

Well it didn't take long to look at the race. On their ratings so far, I'm in your camp Filante, it has lengths on them. There's an unraced on though, what do you know about it?

The topweight will kill the raced brigade on figures so far.

Duritz

Duritz,

Justfly was beaten 6.2 lengths in a 900m Gold Coast trial on 1 February 2005.

Think we've got him covered.

Cheers,

F

[Duritz]

OK think i'll bet. THanks for bringing my attention to it.

BTW go all up onto R Roller, I know you like the 3yo's, I think they're the dangers, so quinella them with the moral

[Filante]

OK think i'll bet. THanks for bringing my attention to it.

BTW go all up onto R Roller, I know you like the 3yo's, I think they're the dangers, so quinella them with the moral

Still crunching the numbers on the Orr - I think I might be able to squeeze the Roller into about $4. There's $3.5 on Betfair at the moment, which might drift, so maybe I'll be on with you. Or maybe I'll give the race a miss coz I'm not sure about Savabeel...or Elvstroem for that matter.

Sleep time for me.

Cheers

[Mr ed]

Duritz i think your dead right, the more i look the more i want to clear my Bank account, sell my car, and pawn my grandmothers jewellery to get on with. Nothing will pressure him at all, he grows a leg or two here, stable thinks he's better then ever. I don't know how you can say he didn't beat much, Our Egyptian Raine and Alinghi would kill this lot at their best, Alinghi is so much better then the colts in this race.

[Mr ed]

As for Foolish, looks all over the winner but is a two-year-old and the 1.40 or less IMO is a bit risky for such inexperience. Much better to go the Dance Hero - Roller all up, he'll get out to $1.60, was awesome first up and easily has these covered at the weights.

[Chrome Prince]

Messiaen - Regal Roller all-up each way should get the chocolates ;)

[Filante]

As for Foolish, looks all over the winner but is a two-year-old and the 1.40 or less IMO is a bit risky for such inexperience. Much better to go the Dance Hero - Roller all up, he'll get out to $1.60, was awesome first up and easily has these covered at the weights.

I'm with you there, Mr Ed - Dance Hero looks too good. But I would be taking Foolish at $1.4.

Everyone here seems to be banking on the Roller, but its more difficult to lead all the way at Caulfield when the rail is out six meters. I was out there on Boxing Day (also rail out 6m), and was impressed by the way Cool Trent and Porto Duoro were able to sweep down the outside. On the other hand, Roller finds lengths over this course and he will lead unchallenged - certainly the obvious on-pace runners like Mr Murphy, Not A Single Doubt, Danehill Express and Lad of the Manor won't sit up with him. I still think the weight advantage that the 3yos get puts them right in the race.

[Duritz]

You're right about Dance Hero, flew first up, has these covered easily.

As to the 3yo's in the Orr, I have a line for you. Mr. Ed is dead right on this one. Alinghi couldn't run the Roller down, granted she had a tough run, and NONE of these three year olds would beat Alinghi over 1400m. None. No hope. She would beat them two lengths, and she couldn't beat Regal Roller. How will they?

[Filante]

As for Foolish, looks all over the winner but is a two-year-old and the 1.40 or less IMO is a bit risky for such inexperience. Much better to go the Dance Hero - Roller all up, he'll get out to $1.60, was awesome first up and easily has these covered at the weights.

Just took $1.82 on betfair...

[Mr ed]

Well i rated it 1.40 so probably good odds there, still wont have mine don't like 2yo but good luck.

[Duritz]

I'll wait and see, I don't like odds on. The horse is a moral, however, morals can get beat. It's flesh and blood after all, not like RoboHorse.

[Duritz]

Won like it should. Gee they were no good behind it. There are two other morals today, excluding Regal Roller, one of them has been mentioned - Dance hero, the other I have discovered in the Marong Cup at Bendigo. Forest Pride, on his last two starts, would walk in. There is no foreseeable reason as to why he wouldn't hold that form for one more run, and if he does they can't beat him.

Duritz.

[Chrome Prince]

Credit where it's due, well done Filante.

You sure did well with the $1.82 on Betfair.

[Filante]

Credit where it's due, well done Filante.

You sure did well with the $1.82 on Betfair.

Thanks mate. He's a pretty good colt. I think he wouldn't be embarrassed if they took him to Sydney for a 1400m to 1600m handicap.

[Raw Instinct]

No excuses there for anything the winner sat 3 wide and 2nd place was tracking it 3 wide I must say it panned out how I thought it could was a nice run from Lad of the Manor but he did have every chance.

[brave chief]

Learn from this foolishness.

I never bet below 3/1, let alone look for 'value' in odds-on chances.

[Duritz]

Winner's a champ, second horse is a champ. I am a chump.

I must admit in the hour or so leading up to the race I got very worried.... Leaders weren't dominating.... Horses were winning down the middle?! Was this the Caulfield I knew??


I hate Caulfield. I have now officially sacked it. I haven't backed a winner in I don't know how long, and I am no longer betting there. I hate it. I should have sacked it when Makybe failed to win the Caulfield Cup last year at 25/1 for me. I hate the place. I am a ratings man, and Caulfield makes ratings stupid because you so, so often need to be in the right part of the track.

Not potting Elvs, he IS a champion, and I did already know that, I just thought he couldn't sit wide and win. He did, however today was a day when you could.

I did my A R S E everywhere today, except for one place - Sydney. I had one bet there, and it saluted, and it covered ALL my losing bets all over the rest of the country, and in fact I had a small win on the day thanks to it saluting.

I rated (on 80% odds) Dance hero a $2.0 chance, and Outback Prince $6.0 second pick. THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU Outback Prince, because today would have been a DISASTER, of magnificent proportions. I bet in 5 races at Caul, 4 in Perth, 1 at Bendigo, 1 at Sydney, backed only one winner and got out.

Today was a HOUDINI for me, but I am not ungrateful. I have learned some very very valuable things for today, I am just extremely glad that it didn't cost me $$$$$ to learn them.

Cheers all, from one very happy punter this morning.

Duritz

[Mr ed]

I'm happy to eat my words.

Its the only thing i'll be eating for three weeks, i've had a c#*t of a month.

I also got worried b4 the race but it didn't stop me unloading, i'm happy Regal didn't win cause i would've all upped and been twice as shitty.

Great win by Elvis, but i loved Regals Run, he had them strung right out kicked probably on the worst part of the track and then hang out like a bitch in the last 200m it was a big run. No Elvis or Savabeel in the Futurity, when is it, i cant wait.

Until then I think i'm a little overraced and its time for me to go out for a spell.

or maybe just a freshen up.

[Searay]

What an absolute stripout for me at Caufield, correct me if im wrong but was
that the leaders track we know there. Although they do seem to come from behind in the worse going there, but it was rated dead and they really didnt seem to be chopping it up too badly. Caufield is on the backburner for me
for a while!

Great run Elvis, but to my poor evaluations i never gave him a chance, ie:
didnt think he could sprint like that jumping from the carpark, and what arun Savabeel.

Squared up in Sydney with THE GRAND HORSE and Red hot with two very
mature pieces of jockey handling.

anyone blackbooked something for next time from yesterday, i know ive sacked freedmans 2 year old Queen of the hill and Caufield for that matter.

REMEMBER- Think first before saying NOTHING.

[Sportz]

Guys, sometimes I reckon punters try to think about things WAY too much.

What were the two best horses running anywhere in Australia yesterday??? Grand Armee and Elvstroem. Someone who didn't think too much about things would have just accepted that both of these horses were in races they could win on tracks that they liked and taken what were pretty reasonable odds.

Perhaps before we go into the form too much we should just take a more simplistic view of things and look for the obvious.

For what it's worth, I backed both Regal Roller and Elvstroem in the Orr and made a small profit on the race. I didn't touch the Grand Armee race because of the small field.

[Sportz]

Duritz, well done on Outback Prince. Don't know how it paid so much, even with Dance Hero's short price.

My best priced winner was Fashions Afield in the 4th and I was amazed at that price too.

[Duritz]

LOL Mr Ed that was very funny....

I am sacking Caulfield too, don't worry about it, I have done a heap there too. Not just yesterday, but seemingly every time they race there. You and me both, not betting there. There's plenty of other races to do, plenty of value elsewhere at tracks which race more evenly. Hell, Newcastle is a top track, if they're racing at Newcastle next time they're racing at Caulfield, I'm going to do the Newcastle form. Been to the races there once, was impressed, and found a couple of winners.

The problem is, the races they schedule there are so damn good. Caulfield races would be so damn good if they weren't raced at Caulfield..!

Duritz

[maverick1993]

was a great day for me thanks to Glamour Puss and the tri.......
i hope i talked you out of super imprint Mr Ed ,,it was a hard race...
Sedecreme finally saluted after carrying my hard earned the last few starts...a nice tri there as well..
Miss Glory Hunter was overs aswell..
I lost heavily on Savabeel but won it back on Grand Armee....Dance hero was just to short to back,,,,
A great win by the king ...thought Savabeel was huge as well,,,,

[Mr ed]

Yeh didn't have a cent on Super Imprint, cheers mate, but he did show very good value on the tote compared to the track.

[Raw Instinct]

Well atleast someone got some joy out of Sedecrem winning I was on the ex aussie Lamond thought he had it won just got knocked off on the line.