Track Bias?

[Tenacious Spirit]

How do you know whether a track is going to show a certain bias? Does a particular track itself always show the same bias? Or does it depend on the day? For example, could i evaluate what the track bias is going to be tommorow at caulfied now or dp you have to see a couple of races first.

Thanks

[Real Deal]

Normally in race 1 of the day when they come round the turn and swing out 10-12 wide off the fence it gives you a fair indication. (last caulfield meeting)

[Tenacious Spirit]

What and if the leader holds them off you can conclude it is a on-pace bias and if a swooper takes it then you say its a run-on?

[fast eddy]

How do you know whether a track is going to show a certain bias? Does a particular track itself always show the same bias? Or does it depend on the day? For example, could i evaluate what the track bias is going to be tommorow at caulfied now or dp you have to see a couple of races first.

Thanks

Tenacious, I think you might have been sucked into one of those numerous punting myths, not to mention every race commentators catch cry (along with how an apprentice beat a seasoned rider to the line because of the 'weight', or vice versa because of 'experience'.). IMO track bias is pretty much a crock of s..t. It is the PACE of the race that DICTATES the SHAPE of the RACE (and therefore, any "bias"). (Don't mean to "shout", but don't know if I can bold/underscore). E.g. If the pace setter sets an easy pace in each race of an 8 card programme and the winner comes from the 1st 1/3 of the 'pack', does that constitute a front running bias? Not on your nelly. On average, those horses in the first 1/3 of the field win 1.8 times MORE than back runners.

IMO I don't think you can factor in a bias. It's not a handicappable factor because it is essentially intangible. Some may say different and that's up to them to post to the contrary. I suggest you know who the pace setter is in each race, who the handy/midfield and back runners are, the barrier draw in relation to 1st turn, competency of the rider, etc. Get these right right and then find some value about the horse you like.

PS Even in the winter on a bog track front runners win more frequently than back runners.

PPS. Very loose rule of thumb: Slow pace until last 6-800m suits front runners; average pace throughout suits most runners but particularly 1st 1/2 of the field; and fast pace to 6-800m suits back runners (but not always, e.g. the great Might & Power had a stunning ability to set a very high pace and still win. A true champion!).

[darkydog2002]

FAST EDDY.Couldnt agree more.
Cheers.
darky.

[Tenacious Spirit]

Extremely helpful advice Fast Eddy. I developed that opinion somewhat myself on saturday and it was cemented by the Oakleigh. There was obviously going to be frantic pace up front which is why I thought a midfield-back runner might take it out. FNR raced handy whilst Legally bay raced back (can't remember about segments). I assume the longer the race gets the more of a disadvantage a frantic pace is for the front runners. etc

Anyway, Cheers