CADBURY GUINEAS - 1600M [Group 1] 12 Mar 05 - Flemington

[Paddy]

1 AL MAHER Gai Waterhouse 55.5
2 ALINGHI Lee Freedman 53
3 BARELY A MOMENT Tony McEvoy 55.5
4 BINDING John Hawkes 55.5
5 BRIEFING (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 55.5
6 BROMIDE John Hawkes 55.5
7 CAPTIOUS (NZ) Mick Price 55.5
8 CARGO CULT Colin Alderson 55.5
9 CLASSICONI Shane Fliedner 55.5
10 CONCEPTUAL Graeme Rogerson 55.5
11 DANCE HERO Gai Waterhouse 55.5
12 DANE SHADOW John Hawkes 55.5
13 DANEHILL EXPRESS Brian Mayfield-Smith 55.5
14 DUNES Stephen Theodore 55.5
15 ECONSUL (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 55.5
16 GLEN SHIAN Cliff Brown 53
17 GRAPHICAL (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 55.5
18 HEAVENLY PUN Heath Conners 55.5
19 HIGH CEE (NZ) Bart Cummings 55.5
20 LIEUTENANT John Hawkes 55.5
21 MR MARTINI Leon Corstens 55.5
22 NICONERO Tony McEvoy 55.5
23 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil 55.5
24 PARMAR DAY Peter G Moody 55.5
25 PROCESSOR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 55.5
26 RENEWABLE (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 55.5
27 RESTLESS WIND Ron Quinton 55.5
28 ROCKFORD BAY Michael Moroney 55.5
29 RUSSIAN CHARM (NZ) Ron Quinton 55.5
30 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson 55.5
31 SHANIA DANE John Hawkes 53
32 SHINZIG Chris Waller 55.5
33 SPIKES John Hawkes 55.5
34 SUBDIVIDE Graeme Rogerson 55.5
35 TANTAT SECRET Doug Harrison 55.5
36 TIRADE Mathew Ellerton 55.5
37 TREZEVANT Gai Waterhouse 53
38 UTILITY (NZ) Pat Carey 55.5
39 VOLITANT Michael Hibbs 55.5
40 WATCHYERBACK (NZ) Brent Gray 55.5
41 ZANKEL (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith 55.5

[Paddy]

Horse Win Place

Savabeel $2.75 $1.45
Econsul $7.50 $2.65
Al Maher $9.00 $3.00
Barely a Moment $9.00 $3.00
Danehill Express $9.00 $3.00
Lieutenant $9.00 $3.00
Renewable $11.00 $3.50
Not a Single Doubt $13.00 $4.00
Shania Dane $15.00 $4.50
Shinzig $15.00 $4.50
Classiconi $17.00 $5.00
Russian Charm $17.00 $5.00
Dane Shadow $21.00 $6.00
Niconero $21.00 $6.00
Dance Hero $26.00 $7.25
Volitant $26.00 $7.25
Captious $34.00 $9.25
Tirade $34.00 $9.25
Trezevant $34.00 $9.25
Zankel $34.00 $9.25
Cargo Cult $51.00 $13.50
Heavenly Pun $51.00 $13.50
Tantat Secret $67.00 $17.50
Briefing $101.00 $26.00
Bromide $101.00 $26.00
Conceptual $101.00 $26.00
Dunes $101.00 $26.00
Restless Wind $101.00 $26.00
Rockford Bay $101.00 $26.00
Subdivide $101.00 $26.00
High Cee $126.00 $32.25
Parmar Day $126.00 $32.25
Processor $126.00 $32.25
Watchyerback $126.00 $32.25
Graphical $151.00 $38.50
Glen Shian $201.00 $51.00
Utility $251.00 $63.50
Alinghi Suspended Suspended

[Paddy]

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight

1 DR GREEN (NZ) Brian Jenkins 14 56
2 NOBLE FLYER Bede Murray R M Quinn 1 56
3 REPLICATOR Anthony Cummings R McLeod 12 56
4 SUPER SNIPPET Clarry Conners L Beasley 13 56
5 TOP LODGE Bill Prain J Byrne 2 56
6 EL DE LAGO Bart Cummings B Pengelly 6 56
7 FAST 'N' FAMOUS John O'Shea C Brown 7 56
8 KING OF HEARTS Kevin Moses J Cassidy 10 56
9 PENDRAGON (NZ) Bart Cummings G Boss 8 56
10 STAR ROSSA Bede Murray H Bowman 16 56
11 PERMISSIVE Gai Waterhouse C Munce 9 54
12 SPRUNG Clarry Conners 15 54
13 AQUA BLESSING Clarry Conners D Beasley 5 54
14 JODHABAI Graeme Rogerson 3 54
15 STAR OF CHANEL Bede Murray L Cassidy 4 54
16 SUGARBOMB Stephen Hill D Beadman 11 54

[Paddy]

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight

1 DR GREEN (NZ) Brian Jenkins 14 56
2 NOBLE FLYER Bede Murray R M Quinn 1 56
3 REPLICATOR Anthony Cummings R McLeod 12 56
4 SUPER SNIPPET Clarry Conners L Beasley 13 56
5 TOP LODGE Bill Prain J Byrne 2 56
6 EL DE LAGO Bart Cummings B Pengelly 6 56
7 FAST 'N' FAMOUS John O'Shea C Brown 7 56
8 KING OF HEARTS Kevin Moses J Cassidy 10 56
9 PENDRAGON (NZ) Bart Cummings G Boss 8 56
10 STAR ROSSA Bede Murray H Bowman 16 56
11 PERMISSIVE Gai Waterhouse C Munce 9 54
12 SPRUNG Clarry Conners 15 54
13 AQUA BLESSING Clarry Conners D Beasley 5 54
14 JODHABAI Graeme Rogerson 3 54
15 STAR OF CHANEL Bede Murray L Cassidy 4 54
16 SUGARBOMB Stephen Hill D Beadman 11 54



the black stuff has got2me!!

[gum stumpa]

the black stuff has got2me!!


know the feeling Paddy!!

[Paddy]

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight

1 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson D Nikolic 9 55.5
2 ECONSUL (NZ) Graeme Rogerson N Ryan (a) 6 55.5
3 BARELY A MOMENT Tony McEvoy G Boss 5 55.5
4 AL MAHER Gai Waterhouse N Callow 2 55.5
5 LIEUTENANT John Hawkes D Gauci 4 55.5
6 CLASSICONI Shane Fliedner D Dunn 11 55.5
7 SHINZIG Chris Waller Steven King 8 55.5
8 DANEHILL EXPRESS Brian Mayfield-Smith D Oliver 1 55.5
9 NICONERO Tony McEvoy N Rawiller 3 55.5
10 RUSSIAN CHARM (NZ) Ron Quinton S Seamer 10 55.5
11 CARGO CULT Colin Alderson B Shinn (a) 7 55.5

[Paddy]

No. Selection Win Place

1 Savabeel $3.00 $1.50
8 Danehill Express $7.50 $2.35
2 Econsul $7.50 $2.60
4 Al Maher $9.00 $3.00
5 Lieutenant $9.00 $2.75
10 Russian Charm $9.00 $3.00
3 Barely a Moment $11.00 $3.00
7 Shinzig $13.00 $4.50
9 Niconero $13.00 $4.50
6 Classiconi $21.00 $5.00
11 Cargo Cult $51.00 $13.50

[Paddy]

Savabeel to win
Niconero to place

[Mr ed]

I'm with you Paddy, Niconero may not be the classiest horse in the field, but gee he's racing well, whereas the rest of them are mixing their form @ $21 he looks a great e/w chance. But Savabeel if right should brain these.

[Tenacious Spirit]

Pretty even field this one (bar the class factor of savabeel). Hard to differentiate between Al Maher, Danehill Express, Barely a moment, Liutenant. Throw in Shinzig for good measure after last run.

[Tenacious Spirit]

Oh and i agree with you also Mr. Ed, Niconero, racing brilliantly, also good e/w.

Hmmmm, thats 7 i have listed, not going too well with this one.

[Mr ed]

Haha don't think so Paddy, Always a good idea when you know a horse is running in a big race like this to get on before they accept.

[nutz]

Savabeel
Econsul
Al Maher
Shinzig

[Kingston Rule]

(1) Savabeel
(2) Econsul
(8) Danehill Express
(9) Niconero

[brave chief]

Niconero $6.00
Al Maher $6.67
Danehill Express $6.67
Savabeel $7.50
Barely a Moment $7.50
Classiconi $12.00
Russian Charm $20.00
Econsul $30.00
Luitenant $60.00

Very open race in my book with 9 of the 11 starters having an assessed price. I'm taking Savabeel on somewhat, as I believe he is better over 2000m+, so he has not been assessed on his projected peak of 73.

Niconero perhaps has more scope for improvement than any other horse in this race. My gut feeling is he's the one they all have to beat and is currently great value at $13.00.

Al Maher has a projected peak of 69. Just a shame he couldn't hang on last week for me in an easier race :(

Danehill Express is projected to 69, and i'll be very disappointed if he doesn't do it here. About time Olly hit some form too, he's been way below par.

Savabeel is assessed on 69 as well over 1600m, a grade below his expected peak. 3/1 may be the best bookies will offer on Saturday, so I have to bet against him here.

Barely a Moment may provide some value as well. Has a projected peak of 68 and Boss on board. Genuine chance.

Classiconi also has a projected peak of 68, but has an outside barrier.

[Tenacious Spirit]

Niconero represents outrageous value in anyones language. In such an even race i might have something on him. Al Maher seems to have a lot of improvement left aswell. I agree that savabeel will want longer, but it is hard to discount such a class horse. A few others are mixing their form and it wouldn;t shock whether they won or lost.

[purpleheart68]

Given the obvious class edge,Savabeel should win this with a leg in the air.Am hoping gamble against it,but doubt that very much.More suitable distance than last start.Being an old digger,I am putting Leiutenant in for the quin.

[pop]

1 SAVABEEL **
10 RUSSIAN CHARM
8 DANEHILL EXPRESS
2 ECONSUL

[maverick1993]

Danehill Express.
Savabeel
Barely a Moment
Classiconi

The DE will get the nice sit 2 back on the inside and come out and win..has been crying out for this distance..
The video of Classiconi's run the other was good..has the outside barrier but shouldn't worry him and a confident jockey on board...hmmm i might have a go at him if the odds stay juicy..

[Svenvlad]

Niconero*
Al Maher
Cargo Cult
Savabeel

[Paddy]

Given the obvious class edge,Savabeel should win this with a leg in the air.Am hoping gamble against it,but doubt that very much.More suitable distance than last start.Being an old digger,I am putting Leiutenant in for the quin.

I'd be contacting brave chief if I was you purpleheart68 & getting some of that $60 on offer for Leiutenant ;)

[Rudolph]

I have to agree with Maverick, Danehill Express finally gets to the 1600, the inside gate is a good draw and should get run of the race, Al Maher to run second, and Savabeel to run third.

[Paddy]

No. Selection Win Place

001 Savabeel $3.25 $1.55
008 Danehill Express $6.50 $2.25
002 Econsul $7.50 $2.60
004 Al Maher $9.00 $3.00
005 Lieutenant $9.00 $2.75
010 Russian Charm $9.00 $3.00
003 Barely a Moment $11.00 $3.00
007 Shinzig $13.00 $4.50
009 Niconero $13.00 $4.50
006 Classiconi $21.00 $5.00
011 Cargo Cult $51.00 $13.50

[Paddy]

No. Horse - Win Divi Last Post - Current Win Divi

001 Savabeel $3.00 $3.25
008 Danehill Express $7.50 $6.50
002 Econsul $7.50 $7.50
004 Al Maher $9.00 $9.00
005 Lieutenant $9.00 $9.00
010 Russian Charm $9.00 $9.00
003 Barely a Moment $11.00 $11.00
007 Shinzig $13.00 $13.00
009 Niconero $13.00 $13.00
006 Classiconi $21.00 $21.00
011 Cargo Cult $51.00 $51.00

[brave chief]

now now Paddy, the $60 is to a 90% market :)
If I was laying the horse, the most I would offer would be around $45.00 (120% market). Still thats way better than the licensed brigade :p

[brave chief]

No. Horse - Win Divi Last Post - Current Win Divi

001 Savabeel $3.00 $3.25
008 Danehill Express $7.50 $5.00 **
010 Russian Charm $9.00 $8.00 **
002 Econsul $7.50 $8.00
009 Niconero $13.00 $10.00 **
005 Lieutenant $9.00 $10.00
004 Al Maher $9.00 $11.00
007 Shinzig $13.00 $13.00
003 Barely a Moment $11.00 $15.00
006 Classiconi $21.00 $26.00
011 Cargo Cult $51.00 $67.00

Been some very strong support for Danehill Express today on the TAB. It is now below my assessed price so it looks like i'll have to bet around it. Shame. I'm on Niconero @ $13.00 and Al Maher @ $11.00.

Col Tidy's market:
1 - Savabeel 3.25 1.55
8 - Danehill Express 6.00 2.00
4 - Al Maher 8.00 2.50
2 - Econsul 9.00 3.00
9 - Niconero 9.00 3.00
3 - Barely A Moment 11.00 3.20
7 - Shinzig 11.00 3.50
10 - Russian Charm 11.00 3.00
5 - Lieutenant 12.00 3.20
6 - Classiconi 26.00 7.25
11 - Cargo Cult 51.00 9.00

[PrinceJudea]

NICONERO with 5 wins from 6 starts looks to be on the up and up.

SHINZIG going great guns of late looks the main danger.

Would of rated SAVABEEL higher, but a still a little concerned by his last run.

DANEHILL EXPRESS does meet SHINZIG much better at the weights this time around, so will also have to include.

[Duritz]

OK well I am contradictory to everyone else's thoughts - here's mine:

SAVABEEL - ignore LS. Caulfield, soft track, very slowly run, second up, leader advantage. Cox plate winner against own age with level weights. Shame on you all for potting him. If he didn't run LS on the strength of his first up run he'd be $1.50. I'll be backing him.

ECONSUL - SUPER run LS, SUPER. Fabulous sectionals. Is a miler plus, you could tell it from his run LS too. Great value.

DANEHILL EXPRESS - over rated. Had enough on line LS, layed in near post indicating that. I am willing to go out on a limb and say it won't run a place.

THE REST - all about the same, not up to the top two I mentioned...

Good luck, I'm either a mug or a genius in this race!

[Duritz]

OH yeah Niconero has promise, but tomorrow is acid test. Won't write it off, nor say it can't win, but won't take what I consider to be unders.

[westman]

SAVABEEL *****************************************

[goldmember]

Savabeel
Al Maher
Russian Charm
Barely a Moment

[Paddy]

Track good, all starting

[Raw Instinct]

Classiconi
Danehill Express
Savabeel
Econsul

[luv2bet]

savabeel

[theshoe]

Savabeel
Barely A Moment
Econsul
Niconero

[Paddy]

08 CADBURY GUINEAS 3YO
1600 Metres
4:35pm
1ST LEG DAILY DOUBLE
3RD LEG QUADRELLA

WIN/PLACE
4 7.40 2.10
8...............2.00
2...............3.80

QUINELLA (4-8) 19.20
EXACTA (4-8) 44.50
TRIFECTA
(4-8-2) 336.50
FIRST 4
(4-8-2-7) 2,643.50

(4) AL MAHER (N.CALLOW)
(8) DANEHILL EXPRESS (DAMIEN OLIVER)
(2) ECONSUL (N.RYAN)

SCR - NIL
Quadrella Sub = 1