Eqiune Investor Stable System

[Equine Investor]

Due to this interest in my stable system, and it being featured in this week's Punt To Win, I am going to post here regularly with selections as they come to hand.
To list my entire stable is impossible as it constantly changes with horses out of work etc and there are more than 200 of them.

So, I am going to post here for some months so people can get the LONGTERM idea. It will not work over a race meeting or a month. So please be patient and don't have a go at me when it has a bad day or week. If after 200 bets, it does not produce...I will fairly cop any criticism directed at me.

Any horses will be selected the day before the race.

The horses will be followed for no more than 5 runs if they fail to produce.

All figures will be win bets only @1.00 level stakes.

That's the same as a blackbook system where one picks horses with ability or "class".

I get sent about 20 blackbook horses every week. The problem is several start in the same race, and only a few win each week - finding those few is the hard bit.

[Equine Investor]

Chief, I know exactly what you're saying but the horse selection is critical.

[Equine Investor]

Thursday
Rockhampton

Race 7 Horse 3 Treasure The Kwila

It ran a close 4th or fifth, about 2 and half lengths from the winner after struggling on the inside going of the track.
No excuses, but will keep following as it ran a cheeky race, first leading and then easing back to sit behind the leader most of the way.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-13 23:44 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Selections for Saturday:

Melbourne
R1 Horse 2 Franjelica
R5 Horse 6 Lady Wild

Sydney
R7 Horse 2 Sportsbrat
Horse 7 Knickerbocker Kid

Brisbane
R7 Horse 6 Juanmo

Perth
R1 Horse 2 Miss Vandal

R5 Horse 1 Corporate Bruce
Horse 4 Prince Of Pop
Horse 5 Country Blazer
Horse 8 Grand Cavalier

Note:
There are 4 horses selected at Perth R5 as this is a quality race and the betting will be wide open.
These four are my stable selections and the aim is to win in the longterm.
There are at least two or three which will be at doublefigure odds.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-13 23:16 ]</font>

Backing stable horses or blackbook horses blindly won't work in the ST or LT.

One must sort thru them each time and only bet if:
1. They have a realistic chance of winning/placing
2. The odds/div represents good value.

[Equine Investor]

I do consider your point Chief, but these horses have been selected because of their superior class and the only reason some will be at good odds is the overall class of the race and the fact that their recent form is not their very best.
Campaigns over and over these great horses win great races....you just have to be patient for it all to work itself out.

If a horse's last three runs are 364 then they are not in the top 4 in betting because their form does not read 211 or 131 etc. however they finished within 3 lengths of the winner on those occasions.
(This is just an example).
Let's just see the workout of this over the next few weeks.
I know it works well in the longterm because I have been successfully using this system for quite some time.
You just can't expect to win every day.

The KEY to this system is in the selection of the horse not the form for the particular race.....however, if a horse continually badly fails on the track, then it is put away til the next campaign.(E.G. shows no glimpse of running on or contesting the final stages or dying badly on it's run more than twice. I give it two chances due to fitness, luck in running etc.).
One suggestion if you don't like betting the four horses in the one race, is to box them in a quinella or trifecta - but my results will only be for the win.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-14 01:35 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-14 01:36 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Results thus far:

0 wins, 3 placings from 11 selections.

Unfortunately we missed out on Perth running second and third in the same race.
I was pleased by the perfomances of 70% of the selections Juanmo,Sportsbrat and Miss Vandal running well behind the winner, the rest look to be ready to win soon and will continue to follow them as none of my selections have had their second run for the stable system as yet.

I told ya.

[Equine Investor]

Patience my good man!

[Equine Investor]

Thursday 20/6/2002

Gosford R6 Horse 2 ANCIENT SONG

Townsville R9 Horse 2 TYPHOON BARNEY

Ancient Song - 2/2 2nd up.
Only 12 days since 1st up run though - better if it was a few days more.

$5 or more would be a good price for Ancient Song.

[Equine Investor]

Saturday's picks :

Brisbane

R7 15 Desktop Lover
R7 5 Flying Sparks
R7 3 Kreisler Mirage
R7 1 Adamantly

R6 16 Russian Caravan
R6 3 Juanmo
R6 1 Paris Heartbeat

R5 10 Crete
R5 9 Citichy
R5 6 Alpine Express
R5 4 Machtig Mihi Panis
R5 3 Kenconcarne
R5 2 Pembleton
R5 1 Bomber Bill

R4 10 Sheer Devotion

R8 12 Royal Circle
R8 10 Hirschberg
R8 9 Lord Denning

Perth

R6 3 MasterClan

R3 1 The Right Money

Melbourne

R5 8 Bellonic
R5 12 Royal Treen

R6 2 Bush Padre
R6 8 Moonah Brooke

R7 4 Lady Wild

R8 1 Raja Lane

Sydney
R1 2 Outward Display

R2 1 Power Of Pegasus
R2 3 Ilze
R2 5 Manzeal

R3 1 Penny Opera

R4 3 Gramercy

R6 1 Call Me Lily (entered R7 too).
R6 2 Arrabeea

R7 1 Call Me Lily (entered R6 too).
R7 3 Impregnable

Adelaide

R6 2 Romilada

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-21 02:36 ]</font>

[Placegetter]

Forgive me Equine Investor, but what are we trying to achieve here? You've practically picked the field in one of the races? Are they seriously all in your stable?

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-06-20 21:52, Placegetter wrote:
Forgive me Equine Investor, but what are we trying to achieve here? You've practically picked the field in one of the races? Are they seriously all in your stable?


Placegetter, these picks are obviously all well in advance and allowing for scratchings, certainly these are the CLASS horses of the fields. Quite often one of these horses will salute at good odds because of moderate late form and have been abandoned by the betting public.

Yes, they are all in my stable. I have over 250 stable horses at the moment. Some are in work and some are racing.

I think you're on a hinding to nothing here. Every serious punter now operates a black book - similar to your "stable".
If you get a few winners, people are going to say - well you tipped 25 horses. If you don't they are going to bag you.

Like I said before - this always seems to happen with "stable" systems - you end up with too many horses in a race.

You might as well just start off with the entire field.

The only way this would work is if you had a small no of horses in your stable like a previous posting said he had. Any more than 30 and its not going to be viable.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-21 12:21 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

As I said before, you are backing the horse to win over it's next 5 starts. If there are five horses selected in a race, and they come up against eachother 5 times in a row, is the same horse going to win each time?

Not usually.

Therefore, often we will see a horse salute at overs which will more than cover the investment.
As I said there is no point judging this til the first selections have had five runs.

[Privateer]

EI, I must admit I nearly fell out of the chair when you said there are 250 horses in your "stable".

I've similarly run "stables" over the years and rarely had more than 30 horses.

Also, looking at some of the selections for tomorrow, it would appear that some of them have already "peaked" during this prep and are one run from the paddock.

Of course I hope you can win with them but I could never justify backing 7 horses in the same race. (not to mention I think you've missed the winner!)

Good luck anyway.

[Equine Investor]

How many horses are in Gai Waterhouse's stable?

How many in Lee Freedman etc.

Well, I have taken the best out of each TOP stable.

This system is not designed to capture the selections that are well in the market, it is designed to catch good horses at good odds.

Bear in mind these selections were made on Thursday, well before scratchings etc. So I would predict less than seven horses actually running.
Let's just see how this works out, over the next few weeks before criticism.

Not that I mind any healthy debate.
:wink:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-21 16:30 ]</font>

The difference is the trainers understand the horses a lot better than you do.

[Privateer]

Not to mention that whether their horse runs first or last, THEY still get paid!

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-06-21 16:41, chief wrote:
The difference is the trainers understand the horses a lot better than you do.


Some do, some don't.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-06-21 17:37, Privateer wrote:
Not to mention that whether their horse runs first or last, THEY still get paid!


Their continued success depends on results.
So does mine.
:grin:

[Equine Investor]

:oops: :oops: :oops:

What can I say.

1 Scratching
1 Winner Romilada Adelaide $3.40

Well, some very big odds just running second.

No excuses....there's always next week!

[Equine Investor]

Sundays Redemption!

Cranbourne R7 H6 Go Taiut
R8 H5 Forceful
R9 H2 Palla Strozzi

Casterton R7 H3 Pagano

Canterbury R2 H1 Stoushman
R3 H2 Mr. Attorney
R4 H1 Daunting Thought
R5 H2 Momentum
R7 H3 Minelli
R8 H3 Shockeroo

Sunshine Coast R7 H1 Clanger

[Ryan]

Hello Equine Investor

Forgive my stupidity but could you please answer my questions to some of the quotes you have made in this thread?

"Campaigns over and over these great horses win great races"
At Casterton?

“I have taken the best out of each TOP stable”
P M Wolsley?
O Koolman?
F J Penfold?
P G Blackwell?
N J Flouskos?
T M Andrews?
How do you define "TOP stable"?

“Chief, I know exactly what you're saying but the horse selection is critical”
To say that, then select 36 horses for 1 short priced winner, including having 7 picks in a field of 13 and STILL miss the winner, don't you think a word a tad stronger than "critical" is needed?

“these are the CLASS horses of the fields”
Do you think class is the most telling factor in horse selection?

I'm sure you'll have good explanations and don't get upset! I'm not trying to ridicule you. I'm probably only saying what a lot of others are thinking.

I have my own stable. Not as many runners as you though. I'll post it here later.

Ryan

This method is doomed to fail.

A horse's credentials is "relative" to its competition in a race.

You cannot hope to win, backing horses, by judging them on their own merits, without looking at the competition. In other words you have to assess all the major chances in a race. More often than not - your stable horse will not be the best horse in the race.

Therefore you'd be better off without a "stable" and just assess each race on its merits without clouding your judgement with personal bias towards a horse.

Good punters are objective - they don't have any particular bias towards an individual horse which this method encourages.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-06-23 10:42, Ryan wrote:
"Campaigns over and over these great horses win great races"
At Casterton?


There are horses that are in my stable which are one's that I have pinpointed/ earmarked to follow, after trackwork reports, trials and recent form. These are not necessarily the one's to which I was referring. The extra horses (lower class) make up only about 10% of the full stable and the rest are the Group and Listed class horses.


“I have taken the best out of each TOP stable”
P M Wolsley?
O Koolman?
F J Penfold?
P G Blackwell?
N J Flouskos?
T M Andrews?
How do you define "TOP stable"?



SEE ABOVE FOR SAME ANSWER.


“Chief, I know exactly what you're saying but the horse selection is critical”
To say that, then select 36 horses for 1 short priced winner, including having 7 picks in a field of 13 and STILL miss the winner, don't you think a word a tad stronger than "critical" is needed?


Class horses are indeed sometimes frustrating to pick exactly when they are going to fire, however, it does take time with this system to reap the rewards. It does NOT win every run of every horse every day. There were some fantastic runs on Saturday with quite a few horses at good odds just missing the prize, so I am happy to continue without adjustment at this stage.


“these are the CLASS horses of the fields”
Do you think class is the most telling factor in horse selection?


Yes but only one of the major factors. If you want to pick the winner of a particular race then there are numerous things to consider, with this system the class and ability and campaign consistency (eg has a few wins each preparation) are the most vital.
[/quote]

No offence taken Ryan. I welcome interesting questions and feedback.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-06-23 12:13, chief wrote:
This method is doomed to fail.

A horse's credentials is "relative" to its competition in a race.

You cannot hope to win, backing horses, by judging them on their own merits, without looking at the competition. In other words you have to assess all the major chances in a race. More often than not - your stable horse will not be the best horse in the race.

Therefore you'd be better off without a "stable" and just assess each race on its merits without clouding your judgement with personal bias towards a horse.

Good punters are objective - they don't have any particular bias towards an individual horse which this method encourages.




Chief, you are entitled to your opinion as far as this being doomed to fail. I did state in my first post re this system that it takes time to fire up. Again, I am not necessarily trying to pick the winner of an individual race against opposition, I am investing in a horse that I know has the class and ability to be able to string a few races together each campaign. Some will run 8th and then pop up at any old odds because there are things about a horses preparation that we as punters are not privy to(eg blood work, viruses, shin soreness, etc etc). Good form is winning form on the formguide and so these horses which are placing each start are usually under the $10 mark.
The shorter priced winners top up the bank...eventually. The profits lie in the $10 plus area.

I am a very objective punter and usually bet according to statistics rather than sentiment (except for Super Impose and old Luther's luck, which both won me a packet).

I have been using this sytem for the past 5 years and while you do string together a few very bad days, on occasion I have had days where 8 horses saluted (in different states at $15.00 plus each with the biggest price being about 33/1).
But I can't convince anyone else til it starts to turn a profit when a lot of the stable have had at least 3 runs. You can't judge it on around 30 horses with one run each. It seems people expect to pick every winner of every race...
We'd all be millionaires!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-23 19:15 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Sunday's redemption results!

Forceful $6.30

Pagano $6.30

Mr. Attorney $5.70

Minelli $3.80

Clanger $3.70

:grin:

[Equine Investor]

STANDBY for a fivestar day on Wednesday...

SANDOWN

R2 7 Ghost Party
R3 10 Macedon Lady
R5 15 Worrier
R7 1 Flying Ed
R8 3 Big Amy

BALAKLAVA

R6 9 Hug A Mug
R7 3 College Strike

DOOMBEN

R1 5 Windscreamer
R3 1 So Equal
R4 3 In Cobargo
R5 2 Bush Triumph
R6 3 Outrank
R7 5 Spirit Of Norway
R8 2 Defend

Randwick

R1 1 Cordial Kid
R2 8 Speckale
R3 5 Dow Jones
R4 13 French Jazz
R5 4 Market Unit
R6 1 Magna Carta
R7 1 Our Irish Hope
R8 1 Grand Estime


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-25 19:47 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Today's results....

Flying Ed $7.40

College Strike $3.80

Bush Triumph $7.00

Market Unit $2.80

4 wins /19 selections (not including scratchings)

Outlay $19.00
Return $21.00
profit $ 2.00
10% profit on the day.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-26 17:02 ]</font>