System developed by so called system-maker

[dolly007]

Apply the following 10 rating strategies separately and if your selection receives 7 or more points out of the 10 then statistically your selected horse has a much better chnace than average of winning and you can therefore back it whith added confidence.

1/ If the horse is selected as the 1, 2 or 3 most favoured by the newspaper opinion pollsters, then give the horse 1 point.
(The reason for this is that this group of horses win over 55% of all races)

2/If the horse's TAB number is between number 1 and up to and including number 6, then give the horse 1 pt.
(The reasons for this is that this group of horses win over 65% of all races)

3/If the horse is in the top 4 shortest price horses give it 1 pt.
(The reason for this is that this group of horses win over 70% of all races)

4/If the horse finished its previous start between 1 and up to 4 place, then give the horse 1 pt.
{The reason for this is that this group of horses win over 65%of all races)

5/If the horse'sast start was less than 22 days, then give the horse 1 pt.
{the reason for this is that this group of horses win over 85% of all races}

6/If the horse's barrier position is between 1 and 12, then give the horse 1 pt.
{The reason for this is that this group of horses win over80% of all races. Another reason for this is that a horse drawn closer to the fence has marginally less distance to travel to the winning post in most races and because of this is less likely to have to use extra energy, than other contenders to get to the lead. As it would have to do if drawn out very wide)

7/If the horse has won 1of its last 3 starts in the same city at a major metropoltian track, then give the horse 1 pt.
(The reason for this is that it shows that the horse is capable of winning metropoltian quality races)

8/If the horse has either one of the top 3 jockeys riding it or is trained by one of the top 3 trainers, then give the horse 1 pt.
(The reason for this is that this class jockey/trainer wins more often)

9/If the horse is 4Kgor heaiver than the lowest weighted horse, then give the horse 1 pt.
(The reason for this is that the handicapper obviously believes that this horse is better quality than the lower weighted horses)

10/If the horse is aged between 2 yers and 5 years, then give the horse 1 pt.
{The reason for this is that youth usually carries more speed and stamina)

Comments, opinions are extremely welcomed.

Have you used it before?
Looks a little too rigid to me, and too many rules - you'll end up just backing the fav most of the time.

[TESTAROSSA]

I see you also recieved that 10 point plan through Charter Publishing Dolly007.

[Equine Investor]

From what I understand, this system is supposed to be used in conjunction with your existing selections. I.E. supposed to add weight to your selections, tell you if they are statistically winning chances.

[becareful]

Seems to me that if you are backing favourites (or top 2 or 3) horses then the system will confirm your selections pretty much all the time - if you are backing longer odds value selections then it will tell you not to bet all the time. Can't see the point in it myself - either your selection system works or it doesn't. If you want to back favourites then just include some of the more logical rules into your selection system in the first place.

As I have said before just because a horse has a better than average chance of winning does not make it a good bet. If horse has 50% chance of winning but is paying $1.70 you are throwing your money away.

Rule 1 has to be a joke doesn't it??? I wouldn't give any credit to newspaper pollsters - they generally all pick the top 3 favourites - the only variation is the order they select them in.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-06-21 10:02 ]</font>

[Placegetter]

I agree. Newspaper tipsters can have their opinions all to themselves for my liking. Other rules with a question mark. There is only one I know of worth his salt, even then he's a bit streaky.

"2/If the horse's TAB number is between number 1 and up to and including number 6, then give the horse 1 pt.
(The reasons for this is that this group of horses win over 65% of all races)"

This is statistically unsound. Almost all races have 6 horses in them (I used to live in Darwin so know all about small fields) but how many have 14 runners or more that you apply the rules to?

"5/If the horse's last start was less than 22 days, then give the horse 1 pt.
{the reason for this is that this group of horses win over 85% of all races}"

Again statistically unsound, as the majority of horses will fall into this category, although not quite to the extent of the 6 runners or more in a field category.

"6/If the horse's barrier position is between 1 and 12, then give the horse 1 pt."

Enough debate has been made on this forum regarding this point to say just one thing. Bollocks.

"8/If the horse has either one of the top 3 jockeys riding it or is trained by one of the top 3 trainers, then give the horse 1 pt.
(The reason for this is that this class jockey/trainer wins more often)"

How are we rating the jockeys or trainers. Winners as a percentage of the horses ridden or trained? If I had a thousand horses in work and got 500 winners and Equine Investor had 10 horses in work and got 20 winners, who would you be backing? What's a top jockey anyway? I'll have any of the top fifteen in all but the best races (when they are literally up against each other).

"9/If the horse is 4Kgor heaiver than the lowest weighted horse, then give the horse 1 pt. (The reason for this is that the handicapper obviously believes that this horse is better quality than the lower weighted horses)"

Of course the handicapper thinks its better, that's why he's giving it the grandstand. Ever heard the saying 'Weight will stop a train'....... Unless you're Sunline and the race is the All Aged. Big weights are knocked over just as often as they get up.

10/If the horse is aged between 2 yers and 5 years, then give the horse 1 pt.
{The reason for this is that youth usually carries more speed and stamina)

Ever watched a 2yo race. They go really fast alright.......sideways. I would amend this one to 3yo-5yo and treat the babies with less respect. Maybe put them in your fun bets.

Placegettor,

You picked that system to death.
Next??

11) If the horse has 4 legs - give it 1 point

12) If the horse has a saddle - give it 1 point

13) If the horse is entered in a race - give it 2 points

14) If the horse wags it tail before the race - give it 10 points.

15) If the horse blinks before the race - give it 100pts (The theory is the horse is blinking to try and tell the punters it is going to win)

16) If the horse dumps before a race - give it 1000pts (The theory is its now lighter and has a weight advantage)



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-21 12:00 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-06-21 11:47, chief wrote:
15) If the horse blinks before the race - give it 100pts (The theory is the horse is blinking to try and tell the punters it is going to win)


:lol:

"LET IT RIDE" funniest move ever with Richard Dreyfuss.
(if you haven't ever seen it, get it from your video shop - it's well worth the laugh.)

[Big Orange]

EI,

"Let It Ride" is a gem of a video.
If ever a movie was made for punters, this is it. And an absolute hoot!

I endorse your recommendation totally.
***** Five Stars!

[Reenster]

Another rule to consider when creating a system to sell for thousands of dollars. This one has actually been proven and works most of the time:

If a horse is first past the post, give it 10 points (the theory is that horses first past the post are usually the winner).

Then retrofit every other rule in your system to suit this horse.

On the subject of top jockeys, how good is this kid from Tassie, Craig Newitt. Every gram of his 3kg claim is a bonus. He's ridden some great winners at long odds since he landed here, including another double on Wednesday. One to watch.

I'm been falling out of my chair laughing at this thread!!!

Care of wives/girlfriends:
15) If its got a nice name - 100pts
16) If it has pretty colours - 100pts.

Richard Dreyfuss is one of my fav actors - "Tin Men" with Danny DeVito was a classic film.

[Placegetter]

Reenster/Chief,

Sorry to disappoint but I've already put together the rules you suggest in a system. It's a cracker. You should see my one about only selecting horses named Octagonal......

Placegetter.

PS. I'm sticking with Juanmo tomorrow at Eagle Farm and I'll be there to watch her win!!!

[TheDuck]

This is hysterical, and thanks for the movie suggestion. We'll be renting that one for tonight.

I'll add some more from what I call "Mom's System":

First apply the wives/girlfriend's rules (15 and 16). Let's say this selects number 8.

Then, when number 2 screams across 3.5 lengths ahead of the field and the jockey for #8 drags his horse across the finish line by its tail and leaves it for dead apply this rule:

17) Claim you never really liked 8.
18) Mention, off-handedly, that you were thinking 2 just after you mentioned 8.
19) Go home saying you picked 'em again -- if only you had bet on them...

Duck

[Placegetter]

On 2002-07-10 04:27, TheDuck wrote:
.....thanks for the movie suggestion. We'll be renting that one for tonight.


G'day TheDuck, I did exactly that on the weekend! Very worthwhile.

I'll be over your way soon, got an email address?

Placegetter