Expertform ratings

[Duritz]

So, people, have we checked them out? I think they are excellent - comprehensive and accurate. I backed the last four winners in Perth today using them.

[Horse Whisperer]

where abouts do you get the tips from??

[Duritz]

They haven't brought those out yet, i think they're coming out in thenext week or so. Not sure on that one.

[Franskter]

I had a look at the Expertform site. Lots of detail there. Did you take an average of the ratings (ie last 4 starts) provided to come up with your selections at Belmont yesterday?

[gazman]

hey durits,,did you just use the top raters or did you frame the market like you said in the other thread...thanks and cheers..gazman...

[Duritz]

I used their ratings to frame my own market. Basically, using the ratings figures next to each horse's run in the expertform form guide, I estimated what i think they could rate today, adjusted for weight, and had selections as a result. I then framed a market using those selections.

I didn't just average runs, I looked at what they had been doing and pretty much gacve them close to their best recent rating, so long as they could handle the distance and going (dead). If they could, I'd give them their best recent rating, then adjusted for weight.

Expertform have an explanation page of the ratings and how to use them and how to turn them into selections. Have a read of that, it's a good way to do the form.

[xptdriver]

So, people, have we checked them out? I think they are excellent - comprehensive and accurate. I backed the last four winners in Perth today using them.


Gday Duritz,

you don't say whether you had these last 4 as on top selections or in your first four or five?

I had 3 of the last four winners rated in my top 5 With Terror Torian (9$) rated 3rd , Josie's Show (15.9$) rated 2nd missed the 7th.. and Rooftop Grosve (7.4$) rated 5th... Taking the overs you collect on all of those races, and incidentally my ratings are posted for all to see, prior to the event and are always free of charge.. I believe the ratings you are spruiking will attract a fee... do you know how much that fee will be? can you say what the top rated S/R is and what the average dividend for the top rater is.. I can... for July (so far on wet tracks :( ) my SR over 216 races is 17.6% with average win price of 6.16$.. (that keeps head above water betting on ALL races) on the couple of meetings that have been run on dry tracks, both in WA, the SR is 27% av div $7.7..

I would have loved to have seen the ratings for the last 4 from Belmont using the ratings you are spruiking prior to the event rather than after.. The ratings posted in another thread ( I assume using the same ratings and the same formula) yesterday did not fill my heart with hope nor my pockets with cash..

I had a look at them and will reserve my judgment without jumping in on one day's results, the pricing of the product will be interseting, whilstever anything is free it will always have people who will support it no matter what, I wonder whether that support will remain when people are parting with their hard earned and the inevitable run of outs occurs..

Just my 2 bobs worth

[Duritz]

G'Day XPT - here's the selections I had for Belmont. Prices were framed to 70% for a value market:

BEL race 5 3UCL6 1000m 2.55
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $5.9 ZEDFIRE
5 0.4 $6.4 TERROR TORIAN
10 1.1 $8.3 FREDS METAL
4 2.1 $13.9 EVALUATE
8 2.5 $15.8 FLUTIQUE
9 2.8 $18.8 LIONEL PARK
6 3.6 $32.3 NOBLE PAK
2 3.9 $46.4 DELTAMASTER

BEL race 6 3UCL6 1200m 3.3
seln mgn price name
3 0.0 $3.9 GOBITON
4 1.4 $6.3 HERO OF THE DAWN
8 2.5 $9.9 PET BALL
1 2.8 $12.5 JOSIES SHOW
2 3.2 $17.0 RISCA FLIGHT
10 4.3 $35.3 SEYMOUR MIST
9 5.0 $73.9 ROSE OF SOMERSET
7 6.7 $260.7 MARCHONI

BEL race 7 3UFMCL6 1400m 4.05
seln mgn price name
5 0.0 $8.0 JUST LOOKING
6 0.4 $8.5 DOCTOR ROSIE
8 1.4 $13.1 TRASH
7 1.8 $14.6 PRIDE OF SURTEE
11 2.1 $18.9 LADY EDWINSTOWE
4 2.5 $20.7 TYCOON RUBY
10 2.5 $23.4 CINTRICE
1 2.8 $24.9 KENSINGTON LANE

BEL race 8 3UEGCL6 1400m 4.4
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $3.3 WATEVI
3 2.1 $7.9 ROOFTOP GROSVE
5 2.5 $9.3 SOOTY THE SWEEP
6 3.6 $16.7 DONT SAY NOTHIN
11 3.6 $19.4 SONIC CRUISER
4 3.9 $24.5 OVERMASTER
8 5.7 $92.8 INDEMNITY

[Duritz]

Those selections were just my thoughts, using the performance ratings figures on the expertform site. I am not trying to sell selections or tips or anything like that, and never will. I don't have the patience to even regularly put them up here, let alone lock myself into regularly tipping all the time. I was just opening up a discussion on the performance ratings that are available on that site, and giving my selections that I framed using them. The results at Sandown were mediocre, but some of the winners were very hard to find.

But even with the results being "mediocre" at SAndown, I still won on the day value betting them. WEll might you say "nor my pockets full of money" but had you value betted those selections that I posted in another thread using the expertform ratings at Sandown yesterday, you would have WON on the day. So I don't know what you mean by not filling your pockets, you mustn't have checked the results properly. (I am not talknig about winning a percent or two, I won just under 50% on turnover for the day on those selections.) Again, don't know what's wrong with a 50% profit.

XPT you do a lot of hard work putting your selections up here, I'm not trying to do anything like that, I was just excited about what expertform are offering.

[Duritz]

I can't speak for expertform but I did speak to one of the guys there yesterday, they are apparently looking at charging about $40 a month for access to all the ratings. That means every day, every meeting a form guide with last 10 runs in it and rating figure next to each run. That adds up to about 30c per meeting for that service. I know another ratings site, TRB, charge about 4 or 5 times that amount for the same thing.

They're apparently also going to have automated top 4 or 5 selections every race, every day, and an analyst's prices for Wednesday and Saturday Melbourne and Sydney. That won't be included in the 40 a month apparently, and I don't know how much that will cost, but less than the 40 apparently.

[xptdriver]

Gday Duritz,

thanx for that .. its always good to see em b4 hand.. Bemont was a very difficult betting proposition yesterday with the shortest winner being Wicked Will at 4.3$ (NSW DIV) the rest were all at reasonable prices The Divs were 4.3, 6.6, 11.9, 11.2, 9, 15.9, 13.9, 7.4 Of that lot I only had the winner osf race 2 on top, 2nd raters won races 1, 4 and 6 .. I couldnt find the winner in the top 5 in races 3 and 7 .. So to come out with a profit from Belmont yesterday was a pretty hand effort..

I hope those ratings work well for you... I am not sure how I would go about using them... I like to keep it simple.. and I am not sure that they would do the trick for me...

Anyway good luck with them

[xptdriver]

(I am not talknig about winning a percent or two, I won just under 50% on turnover for the day on those selections.) Again, don't know what's wrong with a 50% profit.

XPT you do a lot of hard work putting your selections up here, I'm not trying to do anything like that, I was just excited about what expertform are offering.

Gday again Duritz,

I checked the results .. I am not arguing that you can't make a profit backing value runners, I make a fair income doing just that.. I was in no way bagging betting value betting.. what I am trying to establish ( and I am sure I wont be the only one) is how the top rater performs, that's all.. A lot of punters will ONLY look at the top rater (do some research on this very site and you will see that this argument has been had before)

You say there is nothing wrong with 50% profit.. I agree with you whole heartedly..

The reason I responded to this thread was that there was a claim (rightly) of backing the last 4 winners at Belmont Park yesterday, but there was no detail. You have provided the detail, the way I read it (the original post) was that the ratings you are talking about provided the last 4 winners as ON TOP selections.. Now that is my fault for reading it that way.. And I was very curious how anybody could come up with that given the prices of the winners.. you have put the record straight and thanx for that.. Having said that I do not bet all my on top horses, there has to be an "ontopper' in every race, some are stronger than others, but the ontopper is an indicator of how your ratings are going.. In the past I have had people say to me that my on toppers are lousy and are not winning.. sure that happens, but like you, have a look down the list a bit and you will see some winners at nice prices, quite often only 2nd or 3rd raters.. I dont go past the top 5

As I said earlier, I won't be be jumping in using them, but I will keep an eye on them... I wont be bagging them, I just don't see how I can use them when my own method provides plenty of nice priced winners..

[Duritz]

Sweet thanks for clearing all that up XPT. The on top rater is a curious thing, I don't know why so many people stick just to it. Say you've got your top pick priced $4.0 and your 2nd pick priced $4.10, and your top pick is odds on yet your second pick is 20/1, why on earth wouldn't you back the second pick?

Seems like common sense to me.

Anyway, hey I agree with what you say about why should you use them when you have your own method - you've refined a method you're pleased with, by all means stick to it. I am excited about Expertform's product because of what it represents: an easily available, inexpensive ratings method. For all those people who can't and don't have the time to calculate their own ratings, here is an answer, a site with accurate ratings across all of Australia and New Zealand. Makes winning a lot more possible for people, and that's something I am for.

I have spoken to some of the blokes at Expertform about this, and apparently their next step is including Hong Kong ratings, then America, then the UK. Their overall goal is a worldwide set of ratings, all on the same points scale, rating all the races in the world. Pretty ambitious, but it'd sure make spring carnivals easier. And, when all's said and done, TABCORP are going to be betting on American, English, Asian racing sooner rather than later. I know this for sure, so having a site that rates all of the world's races on the same scale, accurately, from your maiden at Tocumnwal (is that even spelled right?) to the Kentucky Derby, I reckon that'd be bloody fantastic.

[Duritz]

Fresh off the Belmont success yesterday, I'll post my selections for Northam using the Expertform ratings in this thread a little later. Just got my hands full with a one year old for now....

[Duritz]

As promised to my leagues of adoring fans :P here are my ratings for the last three races at Northam, again these are done using the ratings on the EXPERTFORM website and are rated to a 70% market, which means they are value odds, ie if any of these horses are longer than the odds listed, back em!!!

NOR race 7 3UCL4 1300m 3.32
seln mgn price name
9 0.0 $5.1 MERIGNAC
2 0.4 $5.5 CHINA CITY
8 2.5 $14.7 JAUNTY LAD
7 2.8 $16.8 APPLE JACK
1 3.6 $25.5 CIRCLES-NZ
10 3.6 $29.7 MISS ITALIA
6 4.3 $43.2 VIXEN
3 4.3 $45.9 SIKMREX

NOR race 8 3UCL3 1600m 4.1
seln mgn price name
8 0.0 $6.5 DUAL DYNASTY
5 0.4 $6.9 ITS A LEGEND
3 1.4 $9.8 BETA PLUS
2 1.4 $10.4 ECONOMY FLIGHT
6 2.1 $13.3 OFFICE SECRET
1 2.5 $17.7 PRECISELY
9 3.6 $33.0 MONSOON
10 3.6 $40.1 NIGHT WIZARD

NOR race 9 3UCL2 1250m 4.45
seln mgn price name
6 0.0 $6.5 STRAIGHT BUSINES
1 1.1 $9.0 DOUBLE BAY
5 1.8 $12.2 IMPECCABLE KNIGH
9 1.8 $13.1 LOMONDS JEWEL
7 2.1 $14.8 AMMON AVENUE
4 2.1 $15.2 PRECIOUS RESOURC
8 2.8 $22.6 FRED IN THE RED
3 3.2 $27.0 TIFFANY ISLAND


Good luck all. Hopefully the expertform ratings are as accurate today as they were yesterday in WA!!

[Duritz]

First up horses - I never know what figure to give them!! At his best, sikmrex had the ratings to win that, I didn't know what figure to give - what do you guys do when doing the form on first uppers?

[xptdriver]

First up horses - I never know what figure to give them!! At his best, sikmrex had the ratings to win that, I didn't know what figure to give - what do you guys do when doing the form on first uppers?

Gday Duritz,

I personally penalise first uppers, by using the number of days between runs as a negative... ie last run 10 days ago = minus 10, last run 100 days ago, minus 100.. altho I am thinking of ditching this from my ratings formula, I end up with lots of horses with a negative rating.. I will make a decison at the end of the month ready for the new season... I will see how this month pans out... I am prepared to penalise them because I am sure that statistically first uppers do not win their fair share of races...

Thats what I meant earlier in the day when I said I wasnt sure that the EXForm ratings were not for me.. they are scored differently to the way I do them and I can't see how I can use that style of rating

[iamcool]

You guys consider Expform superior to programs such as price predictor?http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon6.gif

[Franskter]

XPT. I only back first uppers that are proven first up in previous preparations and they are in what appears to be an open field. eg they have either won or come in a close second or third first up in their two previous preparations. ( Distances 1100 to 1600 only...no first uppers for +1700 metres).


Some horses only seem to have only one or two decent runs in them each prep. A case in point is a country NSW horse (Beautiful Dapper). In the last two preps, this horse has streeted the field and broken the track record each time. Then it flounders for the rest of the prep! Of course .....it won at double figure odds each time first up. I would suspect that these hard runs first up left the Dapper flat. Didn't seem to be ridden hard, so you can't blame the jockey.

I also keep hearing about the second up 'hoodoo'. It is no hoodoo if the horse has been flattened running first up.

As we know, backing a first upper is risky. Sometimes we hear that the trainer has a horse primed for a first up win....but most of the time the trainer seems to be planning to have the horse at peak fitness third or fourth up (maybe second up for sprinters). To complicate things further, the opportunity for the jockey, owners etc to take the opportunity to win prizemoney (particularly on the country circuits)...can throw this theory into complete chaos.


That's a funny thought...all that money going on the first upper when the trainer has the horse in the race only as an early prep warm up. LOL!!!

[Duritz]

iamcool - nice sunnies :)

I don't know how price predictor goes so don't know, and Expertform is yet to be fully tested. It's going to be interesting to see how they go. Personally, as I stated earlier, I am excited about expertform because I think what they are trying to do could be revolutionary in its scope, magnitude and accuracy. May be a good idea to keep this thread going, see how they are do go over time.

I spoke to a guy there late yesterday, he said this is phase one of their ratings roll out. Apparently in a week or so the ratings will be fully ready (still in "production mode" he called it) at the moment. Apparently when done they are going to have performance ratings for all horses all the way back to 1991, same scale etc, compare apples with apples.

AS I said, will be interested to see how it goes. I do know one thing - I won again last night punting in Perth on their ratings. Two days out of two, three meeting in those two days, I have won well at all three. It's a good start.

[iamcool]

Duritz - congrats on the recent success.
The sunnies help my image, not sure about my punting but at least they look good!

I agree with what you're saying re international ratings. A uniform rating system from the users standpoint, would open a whole range of interesting possibilities and one that i will look forward to following.

From your discussions with them, do you have any inkling of the costs involved? I am assuming different "package" levels will be available. From memory i don't think present offerings are prohibitively expensive - $40 a month or so although i can't recall what that was for.

Enough said - i will certainly look forward to seeing your posts and following (hopefully) your successes

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon6.gif

[Duritz]

Yeah a bloke there told me they were working on $40 a month for complete access to all the ratings on all their guides in Aus and NZ, per month, including gSt. They are also going to have computerised rating selections for most races every day and an analyst's selections and prices on a wed and sat, but he didn't tell me how much those extras would cost. From their current pricing model, I would suspect they would be less than the 40 per month, and he did say you CAN have one without the other, ie you can get just tips, or just ratings on guides, or both etc.

[Duritz]

Hey guys I've had a look at the last couple of races in Perth using the Expertform ratings again, here's what I've come up with, prices to 70% for VALUE!!

BEL race 7 3UFMCL6 1200m 4.07
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $4.5 URBAN CHILL
4 0.7 $5.3 NEMCHINOVA
6 2.1 $9.7 ABOUT CARLA
3 2.8 $13.9 HAUNTS
8 3.9 $31.5 CINTRICE
11 3.9 $36.2 ROUGE SKY
5 4.3 $38.0 STRAWBERRY JANE
7 5.3 $96.2 TRIBELLA


BEL race 8 3UEGCL6 1200m 4.42
seln mgn price name
11 0.0 $3.7 NOWA NOWA
1 1.8 $6.7 TIP THE TILL
3 2.1 $7.7 BEST BUYS
5 2.8 $13.5 DRIVEN TO VICTOR
13 3.6 $20.3 TORBAY BAY
9 5.3 $75.8 BY THE MARK-NZ
6 5.7 $122.1 NITRONIAN
12 6.4 $161.4 SERGEANT


Good luck!