Can anyone help?

[andesite]

I estimate I have blown $100 000 over the years chain betting at the TAB. Can anyone suggest a strategy to recoup some of my losses? I am willing to be patient and disiplined. Serious replies only, I don't need anyone else telling me what an idiot I've been. I have had a break from punting but I would like to get back into it, taking a more disiplined approach.

[KennyVictor]

One place to start might be to work out what bad strategies you had in the past. Was your problem that you can't pick winning horses or was it the lack of discipline? Did you get behind on the day, throw your possible winning strategies out the window and chase favorites to try and get back in front?
Be honest and tell us how you think you did so badly, that will (in my opinion) be a good place to start building.
If you've got bad habits which you're likely to carry forward probably no winning system we can suggest will help you.

KV

[Sportz]

Okay, I won't tell you what an idiot you've been, but I will say that I think you should quit while you're WAY behind and not try to "recoup those losses". I'm certainly not saying that it's impossible for you to win some of that money back, but with your past history, you probably shouldn't even be thinking about it. You obviously had a BIG problem, and if you now have your head above water, then you should be very thankful about that and probably just forget about betting. Find another interest.

Sorry. Just my opinion. :o

[andesite]

I am quite good at form study and selecting some winners. I usually picked around six or seven per week based on the horses previous run. The trouble used to lie in chasing losses or giving back winnings. This just lies in sheer lack of disipline, so the six bets per week would turn into 30 or 40.TAB 'pop-ins" or internet benders were common. I would just focus on the balance for the day. I would like to test something without actually betting on it and when it looks OK, I will invest on it. Hopefully old habbits will not creep in. I totally understand the money I lost is gone for good but I feel I have a talent for selecting winners but am lacking patience. I thought if I could follow something 'systematical' with small success, I could make a go of it. I still have a massive credit card debt I'm paying off.Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

[andesite]

Sportz,

I totally understand your opinion. It is just so frustrating when I am selecting winners but not profiting from it. I realise though, I would sink for good if things went bad again.

[bluetown]

Try typing in Forum's Search, "Staking Plans" in Topics.

[davez]

take sportz's advice, seriously

[bigwaz]

You could always become a bookie

[Neil]

Sportz,

I totally understand your opinion. It is just so frustrating when I am selecting winners but not profiting from it. I realise though, I would sink for good if things went bad again.

Personally I believe one should only bet on horses with discretionary money that one is prepared to lose. That if lost, it will not affect one's lifestyle. That does not seem to be your situation, judging by what you just posted.

Once people start betting with money they cannot afford to lose all sorts of bad discipline comes in like betting up big to recover all the day's losses because a horse has been plunged so you don't want to miss out.

Also the simple method of selecting horses, unless purely computer generated, could be influenced because of the financial situation behind the betting. Will you be selecting the same horses if you know you are going to bet on them and "would sink for good" if things went wrong?

I'll have very substantial amounts running for me in the stockmarket on just one company if I have thoroughly researched it, like market conditions etc. etc.

But there is no way I will have a large amount running on one horse, no matter how confident I feel.

Hope this is something to seriously think about,

Cheers,
Neil.

[rith]

One place to start might be to work out what bad strategies you had in the past. Was your problem that you can't pick winning horses or was it the lack of discipline? Did you get behind on the day, throw your possible winning strategies out the window and chase favorites to try and get back in front?

KV

you dont recommend chasing favourites?
the method i was taught is... you back the favourite in every race.. and if the first favourite winner comes up... when youve made you profit.. you stop betting for the day....

[davez]

you dont recommend chasing favourites?
the method i was taught is... you back the favourite in every race.. and if the first favourite winner comes up... when youve made you profit.. you stop betting for the day....

one of the quicker ways to the poor house, me thinks

[Bhagwan]

Hi Andesite & welcome,

I think everyone of us has been down that similar road of chain betting .

First of all one has to take on an approach one feels comforable with.
E.g.
-Does one like to follow race to race then stop when a result is met.
-Does one prefer to lay out all bets on a few horses for the day all at once & walk away.
-Does one like to focus on one venue for the day or several venues.
-Are the bets weekend only or during the week as well.
-Whats the longest run of days experienced where not one winner was struck from ones 7 bets.
-Try & avoid runners paying less than expected price.

Here a a few ideas to consider.

If betting say your 7 horses for the day .
Stop at the first winner struck using its last start price as a divisor to take out a set amount say $100

e.g.One of your selections may have been $5.00 at its last start . Divide $5.00 into the said $100= $20 O/L on that horse & so on .

Keep using the std $100 over all your bets until one gets up then stop.
I`m sure you will strike at least 1 out of your 7 bets , this is a method on how to bet them to make a profit over time.
We are assuming the form has been done for us for the horse to justify its final last start price .

TABQ has this price info by double clicking onto the horses name & upcomes all the runners in the race with its last start TAB pricing.

If for some reason all 7 fall over on the day.
Multiply your initial $100 by 1.20 = 120 is now your new base return figure to divide into.
If this also falls over on your bets for the day , next betting day $120X1.20=$144 is the new base return figure base .
If a profit for the day go back one stage , in this case $120

One must stop at the first winner regardless weather a profit was made or not.
It is far easier to hit say 1 winner out of 8 then stop ,
than it is to hit 5 out of 8 .

The good thing with this sort of betting is that one can often get the overs on your last start price , using this as your divisor .
E.g. last start price may have been $3.20 into $100= 31 O/L & it may pay say $5.90 X 31 O/L = 183 Ret - 31 O/L = +$152 Profit.

You have made +$69 more than one would have betting to its actual price.
As most punters have experienced , it is very difficult to bet to actual price on the TAB because of the constant changes , so this is one way to work around it based on previous form .
In effect one is creating their own book against the Bookie.

This also has the benefit that one may not be placing too much on a mule with less hopfull chances of winning dispite its short price on the day .
e.g. It may have been priced at $11 last start but today its showing $2.90 if it falls over , there wont be as much damage as if one were to bet at its actual price on the day.

Its an idea to restrict ones bets for the day to 5 only instead of 7
using this process.

One could bet the overs only with this method , over your 7 horses.
E.g. If it was $3.00 last start , only bet on it if it is paying more than this figure on the day but using its last start price as the divisor so as to maximise the overlay advantage.

Like anything , it only works if one can pick a few winners.

Saying for the day:
"A Fool & his money are soon partying".

May The Punt Be With You.

Cheers.

[andesite]

Thankyou, everyone, for your input. I have absorbed it all.

Bhagwan, thanks for your comprehensive method suggestion. I will analyse it without money over the next few months until i feel confident enough to try it for real. I am almost at the stage of forgetting my losses and starting fresh with a clean state of mind. I think I can succeed, especially knowing the dangers of taking things too far. I may even post my six or seven selections every Saturday to see if I've got what it takes. It looks like I average around 2 out six or seven selections for win and 4 out of six or seven for place.

Best Regards and thanks again.

[KennyVictor]

you dont recommend chasing favourites?
the method i was taught is... you back the favourite in every race.. and if the first favourite winner comes up... when youve made you profit.. you stop betting for the day....

I dislike your method for so many reasons.
Presumably if the first favorite doesn't win and the second one is short you have to bump up your bet a bit. Then if that doesn't win you bump it up a bit more. etc., etc., etc. Like Davez says not the best investment strategy.
Secondly, what if you win your first race, what do you do for the rest of the day? No, punting is an ongoing thing for me - I enjoy it - none of this quit while your ahead crap, let's get more ahead.
Thirdly, pick the favorite in every race? I might as well buy lottery tickets. Working out which is the best horse is much more challenging than which is the shortest priced one. I Punt as an intellectual challenge, not the for buzz of putting a bet on.
Fourthly. Nah, I've had enough and you probably have too. :-)

KV

[beton]

To be a successful punter requires a particular mindset of being logical analytical, patient and above all in control of the what ifs. Most punters are the exact opposite to the point being emotive and bordering on addiction. It is a long road between.

[marcus25]

To be a successful punter requires a particular mindset of being logical analytical, patient and above all in control of the what ifs.

Jesus Christ!
Why did you have to say that!!!
I feel comfortable with all the aforementioned but the "what ifs" always make me shiver.

[captain charger]

You have identified your own problem,lack of discipline.If you were getting winners,stop.Greed(and I don't mean that offensively)will always bring punters down .If you were doing ok,continue but you must have DISCIPLINE.Never chase losses,never get greedy,cheers.

[kenchar]

KV,

Just as a matter of interest do you punt for a living or for the fun of it.

[Chrome Prince]

I'm not going to tell andesite not to bet, he knows what he's done, and he knows he'd probably be better off never betting again, as he has the form to be undisciplined.

My suggestions if you want to bet and like to bet, but know you have discipline problems.....

When you go to the TAB, leave all cash EFTPOS cards, credit cards, not at home - but with either a trusted relative, friend or in the freezer (frozen), so they have to thaw out to use them!

Only bring a daily limit for your bets, no more.

Have your credit card closed, or limit lowered to $500 limit only, and pay it off as a loan, not a running overdraft.

Put your bets on early and leave the TAB for the day - listen or watch the races elsewhere.

Close all internet TAB or online bookie accounts and make the trip to the TAB if you must bet.

If there's a long break between races, and you know you'll be tempted, walk out of the TAB and go have a coffee and a sandwich and read the paper (not the formguide) until your race is about to start - it's cheaper in the longrun.

My suggestions only in good spirit to help you.

[KennyVictor]

KV,
Just as a matter of interest do you punt for a living or for the fun of it.

I've only been punting seriously for 12 months Kenchar and at the moment I'm punting as a (minor) supplement my puny living as a programmer which only occupies me about 1 day a week. I'm slowly building successful systems so the income side of it is improving. I'm thinking of the punt more as a form of untaxed superannuation really (haven't got any real super), started off with a wedge and am just trying to build it up without removing any if you get my drift.
I don't need to punt so I guess the short answer is for the fun of it.

KV