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hermes
23rd June 2002, 07:25 AM
Can anyone suggest to me a system for place betting. I've been trialling one on paper over 100 races. No good. Lots of strikes but a LOT of over 12% so far. I'm yet to see a decent scheme for place betting. Any placebetters in this forum who can initiate me into the mysteries of profitable place betting? All suggestions warmly appreciated.

Hermes

23rd June 2002, 11:37 AM
Depends on your strike rate and odds.

Keep records of all bets, after a while you'll know whether place betting has any merit.

becareful
23rd June 2002, 04:02 PM
Hermes,

I have tried a couple of times to work out a system for place betting but have trouble getting a decent return. If I use the selections from my win bet system (which gives a profit of over 10%) and do place bets the return is only 2-3%. As you say the strike rate can be great but the divs just don't seem to be good enough.

If you are betting with TAB then a big problem is that you are severly limited on the bet size you can place without affecting the dividend. Also the dividends are extremely volatile (much more so than win) - it is not unusual to see a $2.00 place div at jump time drop to 1.40 when the race has been run - very hard to look for value with this kind of variation.

Personally I think place betting is great for the casual punter (high strike rate, etc) but it would be very hard to make enough out of it to live on if you want to become a professional punter.

TESTAROSSA
23rd June 2002, 04:25 PM
Hermes ,

To make a profit with place betting you must have a great strike rate (80% or more) and a very good staking plan.
I have a good place betting plan which has served me very well , and is quite simple it just involves picking a horse at 2/1 or less and putting it through several rules and if it passes its a selection.
Over the last year the average dividend is $1.30 which doesn't sound very exciting but using various staking plans and starting with a bank of $200 i have accumulated around $13,000 in 12 months.

23rd June 2002, 09:13 PM
On 2002-06-23 17:25, TESTAROSSA wrote:

To make a profit with place betting you must have a great strike rate (80% or more) and a very good staking plan.
I have a good place betting plan which has served me very well , and is quite simple it just involves picking a horse at 2/1 or less and putting it through several rules and if it passes its a selection.
Over the last year the average dividend is $1.30 which doesn't sound very exciting but using various staking plans and starting with a bank of $200 i have accumulated around $13,000 in 12 months.


You turned $200 into $13,000 betting for a place with avg divs of $1.30?
I don't believe you!
Do you sell racing systems??????

Either you added some money to the account or you placed other bets - win bets, allup best, trifectas.

TESTAROSSA
24th June 2002, 12:10 AM
Chief ,

No i don't sell racing systems , and yes i have made $13,000 in 1 year on place betting where the avg div was $1.30 , although i must add something that i did not to my earlier post and that is i used 4 staking plans in which i started with $200 for each plan , therefore i started with $800.
In the past year i had 163 place bets which on avg is about 3 bets per week , and 142 were placed an avg of %87.There were also 82 winners at %50.3.The longest losing run was just 2 bets.
With each bank i started with $200 and bet $50 on each selection (%25 of bank) as soon as it reached $400 i increased the bet to $80 (%20 of bank) when it reached $800 i increased the bet to $100 (%12.5 of bank).
The staking plans are simple the first one is just simple place betting on each horse one after another.The 2nd is just an all-up on every 2 selections.The 3rd is just an all-up on every 3 selections.The 4th is another doubles plan such as the 2nd plan but the 2nd leg of the 1st double also becomes the 1st leg of the 2nd double.The 2nd leg of the 2nd double becomes the ist leg of the 3rd double and so on.
So as you can see using simple staking plans and a good selection process you can successfully make quite a good profit on place betting.

P.S It seems to me Chief that you like downplaying other peoples suggestions and opinions , Equine Investors stable systems is one that springs to mind and various other posters , My question is why?????

24th June 2002, 08:10 AM
The maths now make sense.

Placegetter
24th June 2002, 08:45 AM
Congratulations Testarossa,

I feel like someone has just downloaded the contents of my hard drive of my PC onto this forum, but this is almost identical to the staking plan I have perfected over some years.

Placegetter

Shaun
24th June 2002, 11:38 AM
Ok i must be thick...i understand the first 3 types of bet but that 4th one gets me
plan 1 single bets
plan 2 2 race allup
plans 3 3 race allup
plan 4?



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Shaun on 2002-06-24 12:45 ]</font>

Placegetter
24th June 2002, 12:00 PM
Shaun, you're not thick, you're just learning something new. Did you understand English the first time you heard it?

The way my staking works and correct me if I'm wrong Testarossa, but your Plan 4 apears to as well, is like this.

Consider a series of bets A,B,C,D,E.

Combine the following bets:

A&B, B&C, C&D, D&E etc. So the second bet of the first series is the first bet of the second series.

If you were to only bet A&B, C&D etc, you would get nothing if A or D didn't pay, but in Testaross'a plan you still collect if B and C have saluted. You could argue that A&D should be combined etc, but that would be missing the point. Then I would just call you thick......

Anyway, I've got a couple of insurances in my plan, but that comes down to the person. I wrote eight staking plans, put my past results into it, and then just prospectively took the best one for my strike rate. You should do that too.

Placegetter

Goldcoaster
24th June 2002, 01:51 PM
what would happen to the bet amount if the last bet lost...would you continue on with that bet amount or what?

Dude
24th June 2002, 02:32 PM
I too am a Placebeter.
My strike rate is currently at 81%, my Average Return is $1.40
My Staking Plan is simple. I bet 10% of my Bank and review it at the start of every month.
I have been using this system for about 4 months now, I started with $100 placing $10 bets and currently have alomost $500 an I'm placing $40 bets.

As long as you are DISCIPLINED, you can make it work.
Its a long slow road, but it speeds up quicker than yoou think.

Dude

24th June 2002, 02:45 PM
Lets say you had 3 horses you wanted to bet on, but were at different venues. You can't place an all-up bet automatically - do you place one manually by taking the winnings and placing on the next horse?

Why don't they allow all-up bets across different states?

becareful
24th June 2002, 02:57 PM
Roadrunner - yes you would have to place the allup bets manually if they are not at the same meeting. The reason TAB's don't to all-up across different meetings is that they can't guarantee that the results for the first race will be available before 2nd race jumps (because of delays or protests etc).

Dude
24th June 2002, 03:00 PM
Yea, good question Roadrunner.
And why cant you place them online in Vic anyway ?
I thought I was going mad when I once tried to put on a Quadie through my NSW TAB account. Why dont they offer them ?

Dude

Placegetter
24th June 2002, 04:22 PM
On 2002-06-24 14:51, Goldcoaster wrote:
what would happen to the bet amount if the last bet lost...would you continue on with that bet amount or what?


Goldcoaster,

In my staking a loss wipes out all four series, as it appears to in Testarossa's (jump in at any time Testarossa).

It's just that the multiplier effect of reinvesting winnings well and truly compensates for the times you miss (remember these guys have 80%+ strike rates).

Okay so....
A - Win, B - Win, C - Win , D - Win, E - Lose, F - Win, G - Win

Bets on: A, B, C, D, F, G at level stakes, A*B, B*C, C*D, F*G 2 race parlays, A*B*C, B*C*D 3 race parlays all win.

E, D*E, E*F, C*D*E, D*E*F, E*F*G all lose (each bet started a new series).

So you've bet 18 units (notice that's 3 units per race plus winnings where applicable) with 12 of them collecting. On a six out of seven strike rate (86%) you are almost certainly in front (I gave up guaranteeing anything years ago) but on 5 out of seven your average dividend is going to need to be better I suspect (without doing the maths).

It's up to you now to learn how to use Excel or some other spreadsheet, fire in your historical data and see what suits your strike rate.

Placegetter

PS. Don't forget principles of protecting your capital can still apply too. Just because we are gambling/wagering/betting (as opposed to investing) doesn't mean we can't be smart and grow rich slowly.

24th June 2002, 04:45 PM
I think his question was meant to mean if you a lose a bet, is your next bet the same size? ie $50 if your last one was? or a certain % of your bank?

Placegetter
24th June 2002, 08:20 PM
On 2002-06-24 17:45, chief wrote:
I think his question was meant to mean if you a lose a bet, is your next bet the same size? ie $50 if your last one was? or a certain % of your bank?


Thanks chief! It took me half an hour to type and you rendered it useless in two sentences! :evil:

BTW, percentage of bank is the answer to your question in my plan.

Placegetter

hermes
24th June 2002, 08:54 PM
I'm new to this but I gather we have a plan of simultaneous parlays and the bet size is percentage of bank each time. So its a type of win-building system. I'Ii trial it myself on paper. The prospect of $800 into $13,000 is irresistible.

But I can't claim a 80+% strike rate. It all hangs on that strike rate, doesn't it? Any advice on selection factors for placegetters? Is it just a matter of selecting as per winners but backing them to place?

Placegetter
24th June 2002, 09:11 PM
On 2002-06-23 08:25, hermes wrote:
I've been trialling one on paper over 100 races. No good. Lots of strikes but a LOT of over 12% so far.

I think you should probably be able to tell us a few things. If you are brand new to this and have a Loss On Tunronover of only 12% then you are a gun. What have you learnt so far? Go back over your records, they'll tell you a few stories. Keep refining, keep chiselling, the pot of gold will be yours.

24th June 2002, 10:17 PM
Hermes,

I've spent the past 2.5 years (on and off) trying to work out a stats based system that works consistently. I developed one a couple of years ago that worked unbelievable well for a month or two then fell head over heals.

Only now am I confident about my system (different from early one).

The best advice I could give, having spent hours looking for a good method is keep old form guides. Results can be obtained easily from the Web, however form guides can't - Wizard charges $11 for back issues. So keep old form guides - if you do this for several months you will have plenty of data to work with.

My method tends to be more profitable betting for a win. Win strike rate is about 40% currently with avg div of $4.45. My place strike rate is about 70% - not high enough for place betting - marginally profitable but win betting seems to work much better. I'm considering adopting both methods and running separate banks in addition to a bank for exotics.

hermes
24th June 2002, 10:24 PM
Not brand new to this, but new at such things as keeping records, trialling systems etc. Before that a casual fun better.

LOT of about 13.6% over 100 races with a fairly mechanical elimination method for picking placegetters in the trial I mentioned. Need at least 200 race sample to mean anything at all though really. I'm not getting excited.

I'm using the Zip ratings from the Sportsman coupled with recent form factors like last start and days since last start. In my sample only races with 12 or less runners.


Placegetter. You are obviously highly selective about races. Is number of runners a main factor? Simple maths says it must be easier to choose a first, second or third from a small field than from a large.

hermes
24th June 2002, 10:30 PM
Thanks Chief. All sound advice. I have a modest collection of Sportsman at present. Slowly building up a database along with the online TAB results. Never tried the Wizard but interested to read topics in these forums about its merits.

$11 a back issue! Forget that!

hermes
24th June 2002, 10:38 PM
There's a variety of opinions here on most issues but there seems something of a concensus about one thing: it is best to keep several banks, several systems, as insurance against each other.

A bank for exotics, Chief. Now at exotics I am brand new. Except the odd qiuinella now and then but mainly when I'm too feeble to choose between two good horses. A cop out more than a deliberate betting strategy. Quinellas appeal. Never tried an Exacta. Once lost heaps playing trifectas with mates one afternoon. My total experience of exotics.

I have a vague stragegy of starting with place betting, then win betting, then the rest sometime later maybe. Looking for ideas and systems along these lines.

Placegetter
25th June 2002, 08:13 AM
On 2002-06-24 23:24, hermes wrote:
Placegetter. You are obviously highly selective about races. Is number of runners a main factor? Simple maths says it must be easier to choose a first, second or third from a small field than from a large.


Privateer and I had this discussion a few weeks back. Basically the race HAS to have more than 7 runners, watch how often your selection runs third in a seven horse field. after that, the size of the field only increases your dividend! I can confidently turn a 20 horse field into a 12 horse race anyway, if not, I don't bet on it.

Privateer
25th June 2002, 09:32 AM
Hermes, a good way to incorporate a win component into your predominantly place betting is to bet each way but with a multiple place ratio, say 1 x 4.

If the horse runs a place, it can pay as little as $1.30 and you'll still show a profit. If it wins, that's bonus money.

Also, re the field size...personally, I don't worry about that. If your selection method is sound it's the least of your worries. In fact I look forward to the larger fields as they tend to produce great place dividends for even the favoured runners(i.e. Falvelon in the Stradbroke $2.60).

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-06-25 10:38 ]</font>

becareful
25th June 2002, 09:37 AM
Hermes,

Definitely a good idea to get win/place betting sorted out before you even consider exotics. I wouldn't necessarily go for place betting before win though - have a go at both (on paper first!) and see which works for you best - like Chief I have found win betting more profitable than place betting so I generally bet win only at the moment.

I don't necessarily agree that you HAVE to have multiple systems/banks going at once fron day 1. It is hard enough to come up with one winning system when starting out without trying to do 3 or 4 at once. What is important is that you have rules in place to protect your bank - I use one that says if I lose more than 25% of my starting bank in a week (or month if you are only betting a few times a week) then STOP BETTING and review your system. I also never bet more than 2% of my current bank in any bet.

25th June 2002, 10:50 AM
computer entered the same posting twice - so i've taken one out.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-25 11:54 ]</font>

25th June 2002, 10:51 AM
Hermes,

A few ideas:

# If you believe that you can maintain a strike rate above 80%, then place betting may be the way to go. If you can't see this happening then you should look at win betting.

# If you bet for a win, it all depends on your avg div as to a req'd strike rate. My method is aimed at a strike rate above 30% and avg div of at least $4. That equates to 120%, or POT of 20%+. Currently it is well above that, however as long as it stays above 20% over the LT my bank will be doing fine.

# With Stats based systems, in my experience you need to construct one that has a set of rules that are not too rigid individually, but combined are powerful. By that I mean, if you have rigid rules they will knock out too many winners and you'll be left with hardly any good priced bets. For every criteria such as LS position, I use 2 or 3 moderate rules which combined are powerful, but individually aren't too daunting for horses to achieve.

# When trialling, only trial on "Paper" for a short period. The reason is, unless you place real money on selections you won't get a proper idea on how accurate the system is. That's because when you have marginal selections, one can cheat a little and include marginal winners, and exclude marginal losers. You'll have some horses which are on the border of being selections and you won't know whether to include them or not. But if you have to place real money on them, your results will be clear cut. I'd suggest placing small bets at the beginning, say $1/race. So if your system doesn't work too well, it doesn't matter much. If your system shows promise, then start increasing your bets, steadily. But don't go from betting $1/race to $50/race in a week, unless you can afford it, cause many systems have bad weeks and you don't want to give away a few hundred dollars straight away.

# Don't take it too seriously - have fun with your method. Horse racing can throw up some odd results at times which defy explanation, so don't get too serious otherwise you'll start going mad when you have a bad week or two. There is nothing worse then spending countless hours working out your selections/method and have it fall in a heap on race day. I'd suggest don't spend any more than 2 hours doing selections each race day. If it takes longer, you're system needs to be improved.

# Review your method regularly - don't make drastic changes if you have one bad week though. But you should review results and see if any minor modifications need to be made.

# Banks - you can operate just the one bank and still have multiple bet types, just keep accurate records on your computer as too which bet types are performing best.

# Field size - Depends on your approach. My system works best on fields on 9-16. However, if you're betting for a place or betting on horses above 10/1 then fields of 17-20 can be profitable as you will receive good divs - the Falvelon example was a good place bet, but a poor win bet in a field like that. Don't except under 10/1 in large fields if win betting, unless we are talking Sunline running against backmarkers. I also wouldn't accept place divs below $2.50 in large fields.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-25 12:07 ]</font>

becareful
25th June 2002, 11:16 AM
On 2002-06-25 11:51, chief wrote:

# When trialling, only trial on "Paper" for a short period. The reason is, unless you place real money on selections you won't get a proper idea on how accurate the system is. That's because when you have marginal selections, one can cheat a little and include marginal winners, and exclude marginal losers.

Chief - I agree ONLY IF your paper trialing is showing a profit - in this case move to real betting with small bets. If you can't make a profit on paper then don't bother trying with real money - keep going with the paper betting and revise your system until you can make a profit and only then move to the real thing. Remember that the horses will still be racing next month so don't be in too much of a hurry.

25th June 2002, 11:24 AM
Sorry, I thought that was obvious.
If the system doesn't work on paper, why would you put money on it?

trench digger
25th June 2002, 01:20 PM
My frist post so excuse my ignorance. How long should i trial a system on paper. I have been developing a place system and testing on paper over the last 8 months. 30 Plcaings from 33 bets (91%) 23.5% pot. Tessta Rossa staking plan seems ideal for me. After how many bets can i have some confidence in the expected outcome.

becareful
25th June 2002, 02:00 PM
trench digger,

Statistically speaking you really need several hundred "trials" before you can be confident that the results are significant. Of course if the system you are looking at only gives you one bet a week then this is not practical. With the results you quote I would say you could start betting now but start with a small bank that you would not be too upset losing - say $100 or so and with a 90% strike rate you could bet 10% of that each time (so first bet would be $10). If your success continues then you should be able to build you bank up over time.

25th June 2002, 02:21 PM
Are you serious?

8 months and only 33 selections?
Must be very strict, but if it works good for you.

How could you wait 8 mths?? Start putting money on it. You'll soon know whether its any good or not.

Merriguy
27th April 2003, 10:56 AM
Just thought I'd resurrect this old topic on a wet Sydney morning for two reasons:

1) Does anyone have an Excel workout of Testarossa's staking plan the they would not mind sending to me? I understand the principles of Excel; but would find it difficult to actually format (or whatever the word is) the worksheets for his plan. Thanks.
smgh@ozemail.com.au

I, too, was fascinated by the fast building of his banks on such small dividends. But it does work!! It is amazing how quickly they mount up :smile:

Which brings me to my second point:
2) There is a very strong correlation between the 100 raters on QldTAB (from AAP actually) and favourites in so far as placegetters are concerned. Just watch them for a while and, discounting those that are obviously only going to return $1.10 or less, you will find that quite a few come in at $1.40 - $1.90.

Even $10 with an all up on $1.40 and $1.60 divs comes to $22.40!!

OZDOC
15th May 2003, 11:44 PM
Hi All,
Testarossa, I replied to merriguys email regards the excel version of your system and offered to help if i could, However i feel it wrong to build the system based on your findings without your knowledge / approval.

I would name it the Testarossa System if you were in agreeance and in addition consult with you in its development and final look, and on completion hand to you so you may forward it to whom ever you desired.

hope to hear from you
R
Pete