Place Strike/Place Divs

[Big Orange]

Place-only betting for profit certainly seems to require acute selectivity and self-discipline. Is there a reason why some specific price ranges should be targetted more than others?

For example, looking at the following theoretical strike rates and associated average dividends - all of which result in around 5% P.O.T. , which one does everyone think is MOST achievable? Why?

87.5% @ $1.20
75.0% @ $1.40
65.6% @ $1.60
58.3% @ $1.80
52.5% @ $2.00
47.7% @ $2.20
43.8% @ $2.40
40.4% @ $2.60
37.5% @ $2.80
35.0% @ $3.00
32.8% @ $3.20
30.9% @ $3.40
29.2% @ $3.60
27.6% @ $3.80
26.3% @ $4.00

[hermes]

The most achievable? I'd say the higher percentage of strikes at the shorter odds rather than lower percentage at higher odds. Less skill involved. But what volume of races over what time? It is relatively easy to get a 80% strike rate by betting on absolutely sure things - one horse massively backed in the market in a field of roughies - but there might only be four or five of them, absolutely sure things, a year. If we want a decent number of races per week, i'm not sure which is easier to achieve and why. In theory shouldn't the return be proportionate to the degree of difficulty either end of the scale? Then it depends on the punter's temperament. It might come down to, Are you into precision or the more scatter-gun modes of betting?

[hermes]

Its a good question tho Big Orange. That's why I've started hanging around this forum. Get me thinking. In contrast to hanging around the local TAB which is as stimulating as a funeral.

[Big Orange]

Hi Hermes,

The question is definitely slanted towards the longer term, say a minimum of twelve months, and at least a steady volume, say a minimum of 10 bets a month. In other words, a consistent player.

You should be aiming for 20%+ POT.
5% is too marginal.
If you t/o $25,000 at 5% that's only $1,250pa.
A lot of betting for little reward.
Or to put it another way $500/week for $25 profit.

To achieve 20% you need:

90% $1.33
85% $1.41
80% $1.50
75% $1.60
70% $1.71
65% $1.85
60% $2.00
55% $2.18
50% $2.40

To achieve more than 85% over the LT is very difficult, so you should be looking below that figure.

If it was me, I'd aim for 75-80%. Which means aiming at horses near the top of the market.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-25 19:40 ]</font>

[becareful]

It is OK to aim for 20%+ but I wouldn't be to upset if you don't reach that level. Most professional punters that I know of aim for around the 5%-10% as a long term average - certainly anything over 10% would be considered a bonus. To make a living out of punting you need to establish that sort of average POT and then gradually increase turnover (as your bank increases) until you get to your desired income level. The most successful punter I personally know consistantly averages around 7-8% POT and does turnover of in excess of $200000 A MONTH - now that is a nice income!

[Shaun]

Chief....like you said $500 t/o for a $25 return does not sound much but keeping the same level of profit at 5% but increasing your t/o to $10.000 gives you $500 i think thats where this all leads...if you want to make a liveing at this you have to have a large bank and stack on the cash to make the profits for a liveing.

If you are only getting 5% POT on $500/week, if you increased your t/o to $10,000/week POT would fall significantly unless you're only betting on large pools.

So if you're starting out with a lot less than that you need to aim for higher returns.

POT of 5% at $500/week would be a loss at the $50,000/week level.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-26 11:39 ]</font>

[Shaun]

yes i agree on that point....i guess if you are going to make money on the place bet you need to spread it around....maybe at the track and have a few accounts with different tabs

Shauno,

One way to do it if you were betting large, would be to bet thru STAB, UniTAB and IAS.
IAS guarantees to beat the div paid on the NSWTAB for place divs. Therefore, best to not bet in NSW and take the higher odds thru IAS. Their limits are not all that big though from memory. But you could for instance place 3 $1,000 place bets thru STAB, UniTab and IAS.

This is where Win betting is better - you can secure fixed odds. Agencies don't have fixed odds place betting for this particular reason I would imagine - they would get killed by system players.