ASHES 2005 - 2nd test

[discipline pays]

here are the prices as listed by cricketbet

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="70%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=betcomment colSpan=3> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="70%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=betcomment colSpan=3><HR style="COLOR: #000000; HEIGHT: 1px"> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=betright noWrap width="60%">England
Draw
Australia
<SMALL><SMALL> </SMALL></SMALL></TD><TD class=betcenter noWrap width="10%">5.75 (http://www.cricketbet.com.au/live/coupon.asp?Event=1344&Option=AWin&Dividend=5.75)
3.35 (http://www.cricketbet.com.au/live/coupon.asp?Event=1344&Option=Draw&Dividend=3.35)
1.81 (http://www.cricketbet.com.au/live/coupon.asp?Event=1344&Option=BWin&Dividend=1.81)
<SMALL><SMALL>102.5%</SMALL></SMALL></TD><TD class=betcenter noWrap width="30%"> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=betright noWrap width="60%">Draw
Not a Draw</TD><TD class=betcenter noWrap width="10%">3.35 (http://www.cricketbet.com.au/live/coupon.asp?Event=1344&Option=Draw&Dividend=3.35)
1.39 (http://www.cricketbet.com.au/live/coupon.asp?Event=1344&Option=NotDraw&Dividend=1.39)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Does anyone give England chance, having seen Michael Vaughan on news , he couldnt possibly play with that elbow injury... could possibly be a blessing as he is not in any form. The big question is whether after the hype, if england are just going to chuck it in after one bad effort or bounce back.....
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[Sportz]

Apparently, the pitch is likely to be a bowler's dream, so if England wins the toss, it will give them a chance. If there's no further rain (which in England you can't be sure of), I'd say there's almost no chance of a draw.

[goldmember]

sportz, heard this morning the pitch is still very wet and the curator said if he had sunshine and drying wind for the next 2 days the pitch still wouldnt be up to where he wanted it, also forecast for some rain

[Sportz]

Glenn McGrath is out of the game. Injured himself in the warmup when he stepped on a ball!!! :eek:

[Floydyboy]

You watch Kaspa clean em up ...well im hopin he does

[Floydyboy]

just watchin the coverage the pitch looks very slow maybe itll be a warne type pitch

[maverick1993]

the pitch is made for Kaspa ..this is his chance ..

[Sportz]

Backed England at $4.00. Wish I had backed them yesterday at $5.75 as I was thinking of doing. Damn! Anyway, the plan is to back Australia later on at $2+ if England gets on top today. I think we'll REALLY miss McGrath.

[iamcool]

Slow, dead track

Possibility of rain

What chance a draw fellas

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[Sportz]

Yeah, certainly a possibility, which is why I haven't outlayed a lot on the game.

We've dropped a catch already. I don't think we dropped one at Lords.

[Sportz]

Unlike at Lords, where we basically never lose, Australia has a poor record at Edgebaston only winning 3 from 11.

[Floydyboy]

theyre droppin em in short of a length and the poms are still gettin on the front foot great pitch

[Sportz]

Yep. I bet Ponting wishes he could have that toss decision all over again.

[Sportz]

Apparently, the pitch is likely to be a bowler's dream, so if England wins the toss, it will give them a chance.

Well, how silly that prediction has turned out to be. Perhaps all of that talk about the bowler friendly pitch in England was simply to get Ponting to send them in.

[iamcool]

Not to bad a result all things considered.
If the poms can score 407 on this wicket what score is reasonable for the Aussie batsmen? 600 doesn't seem too unlikely assuming no collapse.
Sportz's suggestion of letting the Aussies get out to close to $2 seems to be spot on.

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[Sportz]

Yep. Backed England at $4 and then got Australia at $3 at lunch time. As I said, I haven't outlayed a huge amount though, because I don't trust the English weather. Those that couldn't bet last night could still get $2 now about Australia.

This is the method I use for almost every Australian test. I back the opposition prior to the test at big odds. Then I wait for Australia to get into trouble (which they almost always do) and back Australia at over $2. I usually rule out the draw altogether, because Australia just don't tend to play draws. However, if I'm worried about the weather, I bet lower amounts. That's what I've done here.

[goldmember]

I backed aust to win the ashes 3-1 as i thought THIS test could be the one they have trouble winning , Ponting is not HALF the captain as Steve Waugh was,sitting there and nearly fell off my chair when he said we'll have a bowl ,only result is ENGALND win or a DRAW.

[racingnovice]

Nah Aussies will win or it will be a draw. I watched the entire days play and i tell you that pitch is a batting paradise. Aussies will make 500-600 in 2days and warne will bowl england out. Warne was turning the ball 2ft on the first day so lookout lol.

[iamcool]

Yep, i'm with you racingnovice.

Aussies can make 600 by lunchtime Saturday and take a healthy lead into 2nd innings - 200 or so. Have another crack at the Poms, all out by end of play Sunday. Leaving Monday to win at their leisure. At least thats the plan.

Updated forecast has heavy rain over there at the moment expected to clear by 10 am, in time for the start of play. Good weather then expected for the remainder of the test. Moisture levels and the related effects on the pitch might be the only concern.
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[discipline pays]

I give england a real chance.... they have runs on board. All depends on Hayden and Langer , if they go out and play like they did on day one first test, they can leave too much work for middle/lower order.

No doubt that arrogance , not england are biggest worry, and ricky ponting is he tactically bankrupt??

[mad]

600 is looking a little less likely after that first session.

Martyn should be getting to the opposite end any time now!

Reminds me of the Nag i backed in the fifth last weekend.

[Sportz]

I give england a real chance.... they have runs on board.

Same here.

[mad]

$6.50 the draw on IAS, tempting...

$7.50 now on Sportingbet, not over yet but you'll work hard for it.

[Sportz]

So much for 600, guys. Right from the first morning when McGrath went out, I've had a bad feeling about this game from Australia's point of view. Going to require some great bowling to get back in the game now.

What the hell was Warne doing last night. That's got to be one of the worst, most irresponsible innings ever!!!

[iamcool]

Yep, 600 now looks very silly prediction.

They should and could have done it but as discipline said arrogance was their downfall. With the third test following so close to this one they could find themselves in a lot of trouble. Maybe the Poms will fall over tonight - here's hoping anyway.
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[discipline pays]

Do you think that we get a little ahead of ourselves with the Aussie test team... I know that they are number 1 in world by long way, but england made 400 + on day 1 after being sent in to bat on a wicket which was expected to be under prepared the day before and everyone expects aus to make 600 !! Just maybe we dont respect opposition enough.


I was watching last night and aussie were into 1.80 to win test and they had scored 1/75 odd, still 330 behind at that stage... unbelievable . They may still win but dont think they are any value

[Sportz]

Do you think that we get a little ahead of ourselves with the Aussie test team... I know that they are number 1 in world by long way, but england made 400 + on day 1 after being sent in to bat on a wicket which was expected to be under prepared the day before and everyone expects aus to make 600 !! Just maybe we dont respect opposition enough.

I certainly didn't. I thought they'd do pretty well to get up to the England score.

As I said, I had a bad feeling about Australia's chances in this game as soon as I heard about McGrath before the first day. I knew how much that would lift the poms. Also, you must remember we have a poor record at this ground!!!

It's going to take a huge effort from Warne today for Australia to have any chance I think.

[Floydyboy]

Should make a good nights viewing

[goldmember]

Didnt watch the last session this morning, but saw a replay of warnies wicket, incredible, dumb pommies, when will they ever learn not to pad him away, i think if they get 200+ or 220+ its good night irene for australia, hope not,i want to see more of warnies magic.

[racingnovice]

Great start today for the aussies :). Poms 3-29 all batsman out.

[racingnovice]

4-31 :). Lee is on fire taken all 3 wickets sofar today. If england lose another wicket or 2 before lunch the game is over.

[racingnovice]

5-73 :). Pietersen is out unlucky but should of been out 1st ball. Going to be hard for england to win from here unless flintoff makes a big hundread.

[Sportz]

Don't think so. They're already 173 in front. The highest 4th innings score to win at Edgebaston is only 211, I think.

[racingnovice]

Yes maybe sportz but your going on 5days tests lol. It could be over in the 3rd day.

[iamcool]

A bit carried away in hindsight perhaps.

M.Slater reckons they held a team meeting immediately after the game yesterday to address some problems - good.

If they can restrict the Poms to 200 - 250, they could perform worse than they did in the first innings and crawl over the line.

Whether this turns out to be the case, well we'll have to wait and see. If they don't i think some players may need a short sideline spell to allow them to re-organise their priorities.

[Jack Daniels]

Poms all out 182

Aust need 282 to win in 2 days + 1.25 sessions.

Very do-able !!!!

[Sportz]

Ever the optimist, Jack.

As I said, nobody's got much more than 200 in the 4th innings to win at this ground and I didn't think it would happen here either.

You guys will have to face it. This England team aren't the easybeats of the past, and we're not unbeatable champions any more. As much as I can't stand the thought of it, England are a definite chance of winning the Ashes this year. No McGrath for the next game either.

[Jack Daniels]

Australia finished off day 3 at 175/8. Needing 107 to win.

Winning looks pretty unlikely now. :(

Warne is on 20 with only Lee and Kasprowicz to come, I think the Aussies are done for.

[Sportz]

Only 'pretty unlikely'??? Geez, you sure ARE optimistic!!!

[Jack Daniels]

Ok so the Ashes series is leveled at 1-1. :(

The refusal of Billy Bowden to raise the finger and award that LBW decision to Brett Lee is the worst umpiring decision EVER. :mad:

Not that it will have any real bearing on the outcome of the match. Australia's poor batting in both innings is what's letting us down.

[iamcool]

Yeah as much as it pains me to agree, it looks as if the Poms have a reasonable outfit to contest this series. You must be pretty happy with the $4 you got sportz.

So now we face the prospect of backing up with a two day break. With the lackluster bowling attack and a out of form batting line up i'm afraid the poms may go 2-1 up after Old Trafford - weather permitting.

Can someone explain to me how the poms managed to get so much movement with the ball and we did not???
How good was that delivery that got Ponting?
What's more what will happen when Mcgrath and Warne finally call it a day?
Is a drawn series now a reasonable chance?
Will these inane questions ever cease?
Ha ha ha
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[racingnovice]

Poms win by 2 runs :(. They wont win another match this series :). Aussies will get more out of this game then the poms.

[Sportz]

I can't hardly ever remember Australia winning a close match. If ever a match is decided by a small number of runs or wickets, we tend to be on the losing side. I didn't watch any of the play today, but I was following the scores on the net and the only time that I allowed myself to think we might actually win was when there was 4 to get. Silly me.

Must be heartbreaking for the Aussie players. :(

[racingnovice]

I tell ya now though that poor decision by bowden when simon jones was plumb lbw when poms were leading by 260 or so now becomes extremly costly.

[maverick1993]

you are right Racing novice..i forgot all about that decision...

still a great test..,fantastic fight back,,,,

[Sportz]

Geez, BIG difference between 2-0 and 1-1. We were 3 runs from basically retaining the Ashes. At 2-0 down, England would have had to win the last 3. Now we're under real pressure.

I don't know about your theory, RN. I reckon the poms would have taken a LOT out of this!!!

Old Trafford is supposed to be a spinning pitch. Normally, they would bring McGill in and only have McGrath and Lee as pace bowlers, but with no McGrath, would they take a risk? Perhaps, Gillespie might get dropped. Or Kasper??? The big difference is we still can't find a genuine all-rounder. If we had someone even remotely like Flintoff, we would be unbeatable. With only 4 bowlers in our team, there's too much pressure on them to get it right.

I reckon the batsmen are the real problem though. If Warne, Lee & Kasprowicz can do so well, what happened to the earlier batsmen? Batting like millionaires and throwing wickets away. Personally, I think Mike Hussey should be in the team for English tests, but he's not even in the squad.

[racingnovice]

Yeah the top/middle order for the aussies really needs to be looked at. They have under performed in all games sofar including the one day matches. Enlgand are running at 90-100% aussies are at 50% lol. If the aussies can get there batting in order the poms have no chance. England has already shown they cant handle warne could you imagine mcgill aswell. Flintoff and pieterson are the only ones to take on warne but they wont be able to do it every innings.

Still think the aussies are way to good.

[Mark]

The turnover & turnaround in odds on Betfair was amazing.
England blew from $1.04 to $3.90 in the last half hour of the test, with about $800,000 changing hands. $56,000,000 in total was traded. The stupidest bets being placed towards the end of the match were the fools taking 200/1 the draw. I don't think they knew the difference between a draw & a tie.

[Sportz]

Yeah, looks like it. Don't laugh. With that one-dayer a few weeks back that finished in a tie, I think it was Ian Botham that actually called it a draw in the commentary and it was also called a draw in a couple of news items I saw and heard. No wonder a few were confused here.

[iamcool]

Sportz,

What stats do you have for Eng vs Aus at Old Trafford?
Early market (Davidson) has Poms $3.85, however most have yet to make thier market.
Might be worthwhile taking Poms early again, considering current form and the fact the Poms will be bouyed by recent success.
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[Sportz]

It's pretty much 50-50.

[rod steel]

Lets face it, Australia were playing at around 80% and were completely outplayed in the match yet they came within 2 runs of victory. If Iwas a pom I would make sure I celebrate long and hard this btest match becuase Australia will still roll them.

[Chuck]

last time we played at Old Trafford, we won by 268 runs...Warne had match figures of 9-111, and McGrath 7-86. Steve Waugh hit two hundreds, and Warne got a fifty!

The time before that we won by 197 runs, Warne with match figures of 8-137

[Sportz]

3 runs makes a big difference. If we had won last night, England would have been totally demoralised and the series would probably have gone 5-0. But now they've got a big emotional high and will be damn hard to beat from here on.

[Sportz]

http://dailytelegraph.news.com.au/story.jsp?sectionid=1264&storyid=3576622

Two great bowlers our saving grace
By JON PIERIK in Birmingham
August 9, 2005

FORMER Australian captain Ian Chappell believes Australia's second Test loss to England proves they are overrated and just a "very good side with two great bowlers". And he has also taken aim at struggling opener Matt Hayden, saying he has shown England's bowlers a lack of respect and symbolised what was wrong with Ricky Ponting's team........







That's pretty much what I've been saying all along. The australians are overrated and they're arrogant and complacent because of all their previous results.

[Sportz]

I'm used to heartbreaking losses like this one with the Australian team. In fact, as I said, I just can't remember us winning a close game. We ALWAYS lose them. :(

Those old enough will remember a VERY similar scenario back in about '92 when the West Indies were still number 1 and we were trying to take that ranking away from them. We had a lowish total to win in Adelaide, but we collapsed. It was up to Tim May and Craig McDermott who put on a great last wicket partnership and they took us to 2 runs from victory. Then, Craig McDermott was given out caught behind, when to this day, I still believe the ball came off his helmet, not the bat.

Well, the same thing has happened here. The ball that dismissed Kasprowicz certainly hit him on the glove, but that glove wasn't holding the bat at the time and as such, he was technically not out. Don't really blame the umpire in either case as they both looked out and they were put under immense pressure from the fielding team on both occasions.

[mad]

Came across another forum last night whilst havin a bit of a surf.

As luck would have it was our English counterpart, a similar styled sports forum, except theirs was bigger, better, faster etc etc <yawn> eh hem excuse me. Anyways within those hallowed halls of infinite wisdow i managed to procure a very interesting thread related to the third test.

Well spank my ass and call me Betsy if they weren't already picking out a spot to mount the Ashes trophy - all inche and three quarters of it, if ya get my meaning. The Aussies are this and that, no good this and that and it droned on and on and on and on and on.

Well god help us all if they ever win the thing because i'm telling you now it will be unbearable, what's worse imagine the fall-out if they lose. We may have to implement tighter controls here just in case they try to migrate over to this forum to tell us all how they feel.

[Sportz]

That's what I've been saying for ages. If England win the Ashes, you will seriously never hear the end of it!!! I can't stand the thought of it happening, but it's looking like a very good chance.

[Chuck]

i thought it was very funny when i saw matthew hayden say about a week ago, "England have been talking themselves up and the media has been telling everyone how good they are, and yet they've won nothing! we won the one day series and the first test. What have they got to show for the tour?"

[mad]

That's a good point chuck!

To listen to them though, i hope beyond all hope that the aussies get up. When they do i'm gonna drop into their forum and give em all a spray - hahahaha

What would be real good is if they Poms won another one and THEN with Mcgrath and Lee back, Hayden, Ponting and Co to hit form, the Aussies sweep the final tests to win the series. Woo Hoo, i could have some fun with that!

[Sportz]

Ahh, no thanks. I'd much rather they didn't win another test. Not looking good though. :o

[goldmember]

Mcgrath is 99.99 % certain to play, he was on the radio at 7.15am this morning saying he felt "great" after his session in the nets and if he woke up the next morning feeling the same way.. he's IN , watch out pommies your in for a belting.

[Sportz]

Hmmm, not so sure whether they'd take the risk.

[Floydyboy]

The weather is the only thing that will stop the aussies winning I think ....I cant bring myself to have a decent bet because of that ......and I wont be layin the poms at over $3.50........Go you good things

[mad]

Floydy - Weather forecast is for light showers thursday and saturday. The rest is for "sunny intervals" whatever that would mean to an Englishman i'm not sure. Interestingly enough i read a few posts on another forum and even the English think the weather in Manchester is bad!

[Sportz]

Hmmm, I bet too late last week, so I missed the $5.75 on England and only got $4.

This week, I've bet too early and taken them at $3.45 when they're now getting out close to $4 on speculation that McGrath will play.

I notice the draw is coming in. Forecast I have is for a late shower today and rain on Saturday.

[goldmember]

I was worried about the last game and didnt bet ,but the aussies are a shoe - in for this game , warnie has got 17 wickets in 2 games at old trafford,so he'll take his 8 or 9 in this game.bet up this time :)

[mad]

Speaking of Warnie, who do ya like for numero 600?

[goldmember]

Probably Strauss or Bell

[goldmember]

In the warm up, all cricket balls have been removed of the ground and McGrath will play

[Sportz]

I still can't believe they allowed that to happen. It's amazing how many injuries occur from seemingly innocuous situations.

By the way, don't you think we should be posting in the 3rd test thread??? :)

[goldmember]

Yeah i thought that also [yesterday] but everyone kept posting ,so i did too,signing off from this one then!

[goldmember]

sportz, speaking of silly injuries, Ben Kennedy last year got hurt playing beach volleyball whilst in training ?