AVG PLACE DIVIDENDS

Avg place dividend from 72 races (All Sat metro races in Bris Melb, Syd) was $3.13.

The avg was boosted by several in the $5-15 range which can be hard to catch, however some of these were attainable thru good analysis.

If you took out the divs above $5, the avg would probable be about $2.30-2.40.

Therefore a strike rate of 50% would produce a POT of 17.5% based on an avg div of $2.35.

Catching some of these $2.00-$5 divs whilst maintaining the strike rate is the key.

Recent examples of good place divs:
Speaker - $2.30, yet only paid $5.70 win
Kennett - $3.20
Juanmo - $4.40
Sir Breakfast - $3.30
Pembleton - $2.80
Dandy Kid - $2.10
Hepstonall - $3.60

All good horses, so you can follow good horses and still get rewarded with good divs.

If people have trouble maintaining a 75-80% strike rate, maybe they should look at a 50% strike rate combined with $2+ divs.

Favs which are often $1.30-1.50 for a win, only place about 55% of the time.

Some stats (from earlier posting I made)

Pre-post places
favs
1st 55%
2nd 43%
3rd 37%
4th 34%
5th 28%
6th 22%
7th 21%
8th 20%

Unless the top 3 are good value, placegetters should be looking at horses that are 4th-8th in the market for good value place bets.

In theory only 9% of the time do all the top 3 favs fill the entire placings.

Therefore, 91% of the time, one or more placegetters is outside the top 3 in the market.

40% of the time, 2 placegetters are outside the top 3 in the market.

16% of the time, all 3 placegettors are outside the top 3 in the market.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-26 16:17 ]</font>