How do you determine value ?

[john spencer]

One of our fellow members posed the question earlier this week as to " how do you determine value ?". I suggested that the answer is similar in nature to 'how long is a piece of string'. In effect, there is no correct answer only personal preferences.

One of the methods that I use when determining value is to work out the percentage chance of a horse and then multiply this by the decimal percentage odds of each horse. By example, using the assessment format provided at racehorsedata.com, if i have rated a horse showing $4.00 in the pre race market at 100 % (or 100 points) I wager 25 units ( 100% x 100/$4.00) whereas if I rate the same horse at 90 points I wager 22.50 units ( 90% x 100/$4.00) and so on.


Given that my method is no doubt only one in a long list of methods and that like many I am always open to further enhance my knowledge base, i thought i would take the liberty and enquire as to "How do you my fellow punters define the term 'Value' ?"


Looking forward to all your input .


John

[topsy99]

i use the following measure which to the expert probably means nothing.

i use only listed horses in my selections.
i use a weight/margin calculation.

i add the barrier plus the calculation together and if the price is greater then i consider the horse value.

it works well as many horses at short odds have a lot against them when using this measure.
it also cuts down a lot on the betting. the downside is that you need to have the available price to make a decision to back horses.
members of the forum will say that a horse drawn barrier 12 needs 12/1 .
oh well thems the breaks.

[Top Rank]

Surely you jest, "a horse from barrier 12 requires 12-1 to be value", seems an awfully strange method, but then again this is horse racing. Third letter R probably works just as well.Value is personal preference, but surely you have to have a price for your selection before you can then shop for value. How you come to a price for your selection is also a matter of personal preference.

[Zlotti]

i add the barrier plus the calculation together and if the price is greater then i consider the horse value.

members of the forum will say that a horse drawn barrier 12 needs 12/1 .
oh well thems the breaks.
Topsy, does that go for any race length or do you filter down for different race lengths?

[topsy99]

i dont differentiate for distance. i know that certain tracks and barriers will give a different result. e.g. moonee valley drawn inside in a lot of races is a disadvantage.
but in my years of punting i have found there is not much money to be made in short odds.
on saturday my winners were media evil master radiant star for valour pinezero
out of that i got a profit. many races i didnt get prices.
some races i got bogged down on the racetab site.

but generally i have a philosophy that (forgive me for this) co-incidence plays a part in backing winners and that any winner is as good as the next winner.

for instance i backed concitaire in the coffs harbor cup last week,
he had been fancied for a few weeks but hadnt delivered.

he drew barrier 12 with a nil weight/margin adjustment so above 12/1 he was value. (paid $19)
i also backed race the ace at hawkesbury they were the only two races i bet in for the whole week.
but based on the above what i am saying is that if i dont get one race i have a good chance of the next at odds.
and i still think their legs get heavier when the price is short.
if i were allowed on the forum to venture an anti-cyclical view and that is that if the dogs are barking it then maybe it is too late to back it.
this thought is based on the view that when the market (stock market ) is featured on the front page of The Economist then sell your shares now.
you probably dont take what i say seriously but that is what i do.

[Zlotti]

On the contrary mate, I'm always interested in a new angle. In isolation, some of these things may seem, to quote Dr Pancreas, Fantasy Forum candidates but couple them with other ideas and they may become pure gems.

Thanks for replying.

[john spencer]

Hey Laurie, as I said , there is no correct answer only personal preferences . All the same, I think there is some merit in what you say as in some way, shape or form i think that most of us who rate horses provide an assessment haven taken into account the barrier position and handicap weight of each of the runners.In effect this is what you do in your own personal way .Thanks for the input . Happy punting .

John .

[william]

Value = An overlay

[Zlotti]

Value = An overlay
True, but it also needs a chance at winning too!

[topsy99]

just a last word to give an example of having a tangible can do for you.

yesterday there were only two listed horses running and they were at murwillumbah.
one was lianga bay which was mentioned elsewhere in the forum and maybe it failed. but i missed the race. it rated 13 on my measure.
dont know what price it started at.
the other was fortune's friend which i included from a race at doomben from last september.

it rated 17.131 on my measure and started at $2.80.

my requirement was 18/1 it ran unplaced.

this doesnt always work but today was the same. i didnt get a price on any of the 7 listed runners at moe, taree and rockhampton.

most ran unplaced except our guided missile and our secret agent.

so saving me some money again.

theoretically i have looked for a method that would give me a tangible measure even if it has a degree of fallibility which of course is that a horse drawn wide may not be disadvantaged.

but thanks for the tolerance. i generally like to contribute but am often on a different wavelength.

[william]

The formula for determining one’s advantage (or disadvantage) on any given wager, is as follows: winning percentage x (average winning odds + 1.0). So that when you have a 40% win expectation and average winning odds of 2-1, this becomes .40 x 3 = 1.20 over 1.0, or 20 per cent overlay. Your bet thus becomes a multiple or a fraction of the number
20 (according to the size of your bankroll). If your overlay advantage were 10 %, you would then wager by betting a multiple or a fraction of the number 10.

[Sportz]

Whatever it was you just said William, it sure sounded impressive. :D