US Open Tennis

[Chuck]

Its that time again....the last big one for the year...Will the FedEx make it back to back wins, or will it be former champions Hewitt, Safin or Rat, i mean Roddick making the charge? Heres a bunch of bets from me for the first round that should win pretty easily.

Federer over Minar
Kiefer over Vanek
Nalbandian over Bogmolov Jnr.
Gonzales over Moodie
Sanguinetti over Arthurs
Srichapan over El Aynaoui
Davydenko over Zib
Hewitt over Costa
Dent over Burgsmuller
Hrbarty over Seppi
Henman over Verdasco
Lee over Ancic
Mirnyi over Gimelstob
Beck over Niemenem
Safin over Popp
Coria over Mantilla
Spadea over Weiner
Lopez over Volandri
Novak over Norman
Haas over Lukzac
Roddick over Muller
Agassi over Sabau
Fish over Karlovic
Mello over Monaco
Berdych over Kolschreiber
Malisse over Hernych
Gaudio over Baker
Grosjean over Hernandez
Robredo over Bracciali
Nadal over Reynolds

[goldmember]

I think Roger "you cant beat me" Federer has Hewitt covered :D

[goldmember]

Might go the doubles, as roger doger is so short,

FEDERER/CLIJSTERS $4.40
FEDERER/ HENIN-HARDENNE $6.95
FEDERER/ SHARAPOVA $9.30
FEDERER/WILLIAMS .V $10.50

[discipline pays]

Give Roddick a chance at value, can get 12.00 at global sportsbet.... but "Fedex" is obvious choice

[mad]

Yep Roddick a chance, 16's at Betfair.

Could you guys point me in the direction of a good tennis site for stats etc

Thanks in advance.

[Sportz]

I think Roger "you cant beat me" Federer has Hewitt covered :D

Amazing. He's just saying what I've been saying for quite a while. ;)

[Dirk Gently]

Gee, not a lot of comment yet. I always wonder with these futures like the mens winner etc if you would not be better doing eight all-ups on your chosen player. Sure roddick is $1.04 for the first round so you'd skip it but the odds later on might make it better value.
Thinking of the first round, I just put a bet on Costa to beat Hewitt. Costa is Hewitt's white whale and the 11/1 will ease the pain of another early exit for Leyton. Looking forward to more controversy as the open opens out! Cheers.

[punter57]

Hi all!! Now that Roddick has crashed at very very very short odds (twice in 3 tournaments) and last years women's champ likewise, is anyone interested in a little "fun" as well as the serious business of tipping winners. Each day we nominate who we think is the most likely/profitable UPSET winner. Not only will this "probably" be as lucrative, or better than the usual penchant for following yesterday's heros, BUT it may be good for instilling an instinct which is not stats- or tipster- driven (we could call this a "feel" for the game). We could maybe allow 3 tips per day with only the LONGEST winner (if any) being counted. Or something like that.This would mean that 1 $3 winner was better than 2 $2.50 successes. Or maybe just straightforward POT. Anyone interested? Yes? No?

[Chuck]

sounds fun.....you should win being P57 and alll

Tonights 3 Outsiders:

Agustin Calleri $4.00 over David Ferrer
Karol Kucera $2.20 over Philipoussis
Machaela Pastikova $4.80 over Sugiyama

[punter57]

Chuck. To be fair I suppose we'll all have to use the same odds source. I like Calleri too, but he's $4.80 on Betfair. Likewise, looking through them all Hewitt's opponent is $11 on Centrebet but $29 on Betfair. What shall we do? On this point Chuck; if you are quick you can get $1.88 on Unitab for Asacuso and $2.18 for Horna at Betfair (that's less than 100%!!!!) Be quick.

[karla909]

best longshot Kucera bt philly 2.40

[Chuck]

use best betfair prices

[Sportz]

best longshot Kucera bt philly 2.40

You mean Phillipoussis was favourite? I'm afraid I missed that one or I would have had a bet on Kucera too.

[Sportz]

Thinking of the first round, I just put a bet on Costa to beat Hewitt. Costa is Hewitt's white whale and the 11/1 will ease the pain of another early exit for Leyton.

Geez, that was close. You do realise the US Open isn't played on clay??? :D

[punter57]

Good one Sportz!! But what if it had been Moya? Anyway, I'll commence looking into those outsiders.
Dirk. That was surely a gest. Hewitt is probably the MOST reliable player (apart from Federer, who usually, coincidentally ends Lleyton's run) in tennis. Apart from Wimbledon '03 has Lleyton EVER disappointed early?
As for Phillipousis: well.... how could those odds BE?? And on ALL the books?

[Chuck]

Federer over Minar - WIN
Kiefer over Vanek - WIN
Nalbandian over Bogmolov Jnr. - WIN
Gonzales over Moodie - WIN
Sanguinetti over Arthurs - WIN
Srichapan over El Aynaoui - WIN
Davydenko over Zib - WIN
Hewitt over Costa - WIN
Dent over Burgsmuller - WIN
Hrbarty over Seppi - WIN
Henman over Verdasco - LOSE
Lee over Ancic - LOSE
Mirnyi over Gimelstob - WIN
Beck over Niemenem - LOSE
Safin over Popp - X
Coria over Mantilla - WIN
Spadea over Weiner - WIN
Lopez over Volandri - WIN
Novak over Norman - WIN
Haas over Lukzac - WIN
Roddick over Muller - LOSE
Agassi over Sabau - WIN
Fish over Karlovic - LOSE
Mello over Monaco - WIN
Berdych over Kolschreiber - WIN
Malisse over Hernych - WIN
Gaudio over Baker - LOSE
Grosjean over Hernandez - WIN
Robredo over Bracciali - WIN
Nadal over Reynolds - WIN

Overall 23/29....okay i guess :o

[karla909]

outsider for thursday


bjorkman bt youzhny $3.50


ps since Cinci 2003 (lost to Malisse), Hewitt has won 20 straight 1st rd matches for a collect of $2.42 per $1 wagered.
might have to put him in the statistical certainity page - lol

[thefan]

outsider for thursday


bjorkman bt youzhny $3.50


ps since Cinci 2003 (lost to Malisse), Hewitt has won 20 straight 1st rd matches for a collect of $2.42 per $1 wagered.
might have to put him in the statistical certainity page - lol

could you please back bjorkman to bt youzhny up

[karla909]

Sorry thefan


I thought we were having a guessing contest to get the highest longshot.

My figures have them even, but I am not betting on it or against it.

Just a fun selection as P57 suggested.

karla

[Dirk Gently]

Mmmmm, Hewitt did drop five games though, pity it was over three sets!

my guess's are Sanguinetti tb Moya @$4.35 and
Srichaphan tb Daveydenko @$ 3.25

[thefan]

clement to bt murray at $1.97
Davydenko to bt Srichaphan $1.35

[karla909]

With 15 of 16 favs winning last night, it is hard to pick a longshot.


However as a favourites backer me and my bank balance are all smiles.

Longshot guess tonite is Phau bt Niemenen $3.25.

I am personally not backing either. I am on the favs to repeat their performance.

[Chuck]

Srichapan tb Davydenko - $3.20
Djokovic tb Ancic - $3.20
Snaguinetti tb Moya - $5.00

[Betsy]

Srichapan tb Davydenko - $3.20
Djokovic tb Ancic - $3.20
Snaguinetti tb Moya - $5.00
Hope these picks weren't just for the longshot comp, you would've made a packet if you followed them

[Dirk Gently]

Lets see if Chuck copies these Betsy!
Berdych tb Agassi@$4
Robredo tb Grosean@$2.45
Marlisse tb Youzny @$2.30
Here's my bleeding obvious point-for-the-day:
All but one gets knocked out eventually!

[Chuck]

Hope these picks weren't just for the longshot comp, you would've made a packet if you followed them

you bet i followed them! Had a stack on all 3 + $10 on the multi @ 50-1! I didn't put them in for the fp comp though :(

Tonights outsider:
Tommy Haas vs Ginepri - $2.50

[punter57]

G'day Chuck!! Your good fortune is really great to see. I don't want anyone thinking I've got tickets on myself (!!!!) but it's really good to know that some here are following through an seeing things in a "different way". Over in the racing forums I'm STILL being abused for EVEN suggesting that outsiders might be the way. Keep it up Chucky Boy. Go you good thing!!!

Karla909. Hello too! Earlier on when you said you regarded the longshot "competition" as a guessing game, you were not really correct. It was an attempt to nudge people in the right direction,by allying deeper thought with the "competitive spirit". Having been pilloried several times before and during Wimbledon, I had enough (bruising?) experience of how difficult it is for punters to put cherished ideas aside FOR JUST A SECOND. However, once you do,and you win, your eyes are truly OPEN. Good luck to everyone.
Now, back to the gee gees.

[Chuck]

I've said it so many times, but the most common mistake made by punters is making their stake according to the odds. People take odds into account too heavily. They should be backing them on their personal opinion, not what others have laid out for them

[Chuck]

Tonights Outsiders

Hrbarty over Ferrer - $2.00
Djokovic over Verdasco - $2.85


Plus the exotic special is Federer to concede 12 games or more @ $2.75

[thefan]

Blake to bt Robredo @ 1.24
Agassi to bt Malisse @ 1.17

[Chuck]

interesting outsiders there mate! :D

Mine for tonight:

Gasquet over Ginepri @ $2.60
Likhovtseva ove rMauresmo @ $5.65