"No Brainer" system

[crash]

Although I mainly like to make my own luck through form study, I always have one system I've worked out going for interest sake.

I used this one over a couple of years and I did very well from it, but I have simplified it because a couple of rules weren't helping it. I like it because it is quick and easy. Resurrected it for last Saturday and it did fine. Win bet only:

1. Sat. Metro Adl. Syd. Brisb. No Hurdles, Maidens or 2yr. old races.
2.Add placings last 4 starts. Total must be no more than 9 [0 or S =10] Ed: I use this rule in a lot of my systems as it guarantees decent form and fitness.
3. Last start must have been 21 days or less
4. Track no worse than dead.
5. Max weight 57kg after any apprentice allowances.
6. Morning line odds no more than $7 from:
http://www.tabform.thewest.com.au/jspcontent/TFFrameset.jsp
or choose your own source.

Saturday 27th. Selections:

Melb. Slow track so no bets.
Syd. R1/1 Mamma Lamia.
Adl. R3/2 Coolgardie [Win $3.60]. R5/4 Mandezvous.
Brisb. R3/2 Umaprience [Win $3.70]. R6/1 Tycoon Rose.

Bet 5 units. Return 7.3 units. A reasonable result.

Naturally better odds could be found as these are just from the above site.

[w924]

Hi Crash, can you tell me when these morning line prices are first posted for teh Saturday meetings, and also if they closely resemble say "The Australian" newspaper morning line prices ..?

Living overseas now, I am struggling to find an easily accessible morning line price structure. on the Net....this WA tab site is the best one Ive heard of so far..

Anyone got any suggestions for any other online sites for such info?
Cheers
W924

[crash]

W24
I have tried lots of other pre-post sources and none of them performed as well as the one I nominated. They are usually up on the site by early morning [5am to 8am]. This system can be used anywhere and anytime but there are very few bets outside of Sat.

To everyone,
Don't think either that because I have put this system up it's a dud. I believe in Dr Pangloss's theory that you could 'write a winning system on the footpath outside Ranwick and it wouldn't affect the system odds long term'. If the rules are thought about, this system makes very good sense.

[Dr Pangloss]

Don't think either that because I have put this system up it's a dud. I believe in Dr Pangloss's theory that you could 'write a winning system on the footpath outside Ranwick and it wouldn't affect the system odds long term'. If the rules are thought about, this system makes very good sense.


There's a sign on a Las Vegas motel room wall that reads,

"If you wish to try your luck at our tables - you're welcome. If you have a system - STAY RIGHT WHERE YOU ARE - we'll send a limmo 'round to get you."

Not many limmos spotted in the Randwick races public carpark - but always a long line waiting for the bus after the last.

........

[Chuck]

Add placings last 4 starts. Total must be no more than 9 [0 or S =10] Ed: I use this rule in a lot of my systems as it guarantees decent form and fitness.


but not class....the last of the big three factors - and that is where the system could fall down

[Bhagwan]

Heres another source for morning prices.

https://sports.centrebet.com/

[crash]

"but not class....the last of the big three factors - and that is where the system could fall down".

The odds take care of that Chuck. No Class to suit the race? No $7 or less PP.

Don't worry though, systems fall down all the time, including this one I'm sure. I had a few long run of outs with it. But I've also had some wonderful longer runs of profit.

I forgot one rule for this system: If more than one runner found, choose the one with the shorter odds. If same, ignore the race.

[Shaun]

This rule 6. Morning line odds no more than $7 from that would handle the class factor in some sense specialy if you use a reliable morning line......i like the 9s horses reminds me of a website that has been up for years but has not been maintained....some great advise on that site.....i saved all the useful webpages for future reference in case the site closes one day

[w924]

Many Thanks to Crash and Bhagwan for that useful morning line info., and also to Pangloss for that great Vegas sign. LOL

I am sure that there are many sound plans that work over the long term...esp when combined with ratings selections. Finding one , I think, is the easy part. It is the tenacity in riding the losing sequences that is the most difficult thing for most people to master.

One of my "sound" selection methods is experiencing a run of outs in Brisbane ..now 29 as of Saturday..it takes a certain amount of discipline to stick with it. Past experience and stats show me that this is a typical run of outs..doesnt happen all the time..but it can happen..and it could go to 35 or more....... Not everyones' cup of tea, but I prefer this to backing faves and I know that it is profitable in the long term. It is working brilliantly in Sydney and ok in Melbourne...I run three states to spread the risk and incraese the action.. 24 four plans in all with 21 of them being filters of the main three. The percentage profitability rises with each refinement, but the number of bets drops sharply with each refinement. One has to consider Profit on turnover...not just percentage profit on turnover.

Some of my filtered plans may only produce four bets in a year. To make them really earn big money would requires large bets..I dont want the mortgage riding three times a year in order to make my money... Too hard on the heart for me..and those highly-refined plans could still experience a run of outs that may span three or more years...
.
If I was to post those rules up here I also doubt that anyone would bother to use them..plus the prices would not be affected either.. I think that this is even more true today..esp that we now have so many betting options and different win pools throughout the land...

Anyone here not seen "Owning Mahoney" ? true story of a Canadian bank empoyee with a major problem. A "must see" movie for every punter...

[w924]

Hi Crash you write " forgot one rule for this system: If more than one runner found, choose the one with the shorter odds."


call me stupid, but I would tend to go the other way..i.e. back the longer priced one. Logic tells me that backing the longer of the two will produce a better profit over time. Nothing worse, for me at least, than backing the shorter one and having the longer priced one saluting the judge...

When two horses come up in a selection process..they have about an equal chance of saluting, according to that selection process.

Perhaps another way of eliminating one of the two selected horses might be to look at their winning percentage...eg. sack the selection that has less than a 20% win rate...such horses can be very hard to catch..and often run around at short odds. Tropiqualo in Brisbane surprised a few people and won two weeks ago and then went out short the following week and couldnt repeat it. History shows this horse to have a poor win rate.

Another option, perhaps, is give the horse that won its previous start the nod over the one that hasn't. last start winners are known to have a high winning strike rate when they next front up....esp within the 21 days time frame that you use already in your selection process. I'll say that this might work in Sydney better than in Melbourne. My own selections this year, that also won their previous start, are performing way better in Sydney than in Melbourne.. I dont have stats going back far enough to know if this is normal, or just happening this year so far.. It may straighten uop with the quality Spring carnival horses...

All the very best

[punter57]

Morning all! Another system which can only lead you to a fav (or near fav). All the obvious "good thing" elements, with the hope that maybe THIS time it has got in light at the weights (or at least not TOO heavy). The morning line has to confirm this (ie that it WILL be short priced), so that every other punter in town will also jump aboard, and then you'll make money. After so many run-ins with Crash I'm more convinced than ever that he is a BOOKIE or else working for one. How can it be that 98% (or so) of punters bet shorties regularly and lose, but still so many hope the shorties will SAVE them??
The bookies cheer when the longies come in (while we punters were on the shorties) because they then clean up!! You know that; I know that; we ALL know that!! What about someone offerring a (mechanical) system which targets the NON-obvios chances??
You are right W924. If you found it impossible to split two competitors it would be nothing short of idiocy to take the SHORTER price. I can't split Heads from Tails so I ignore $2.50 on Tails in fanour of $1.60 on Heads???? Get real, Crash. Are you a BOOKIE???

[crash]

That's right Punter 57. I'm a Bookie [as the older members here all know:-)] and I am particularly interested in taking YOUR bets. Especially any LARGE ones on a regular basis. I'll even give you 'best on tote' for all your astute bets on pre-post 50/1 + selections that win, considering you [obviously by your betting logic] must make so many of them.

[w924]

Hi Punter 57.,

"'The bookies cheer when the longies come in (while we punters were on the shorties) because they then clean up!! ''

I thought long and hard on this and years ago I decided to get in sync with the bookies so that when I cheer, so do they...well most of them anyway.. When I hand over my cash I'm backing the horses which help the bookmaker lay the fave.

I used to listen to the radio on raceday mornings and laugh at the bookies picks given out. Talk about a conspiracy...there was just no incentive for their info to be accurate. In the early days of cellphones, a bookie conversation was tapped and it suggested that the bookies colluded into coming up with thier radio bookie bets for the day..all designed to throw the punter off the scent.

Figured that, if my bets ever got big enough, I did not want anything ,or anyone conspiring, to ensure my bets did not win. Big punters, owners and even a big bookmaker, ( in Melb years ago ) confirmed to me that things are not always as squeaky clean as we would like to think they are.

There is a lot riding on faves..and sometimes the horse is carrying far too much pressure (if you know what I mean) to actually win. So rather than join the herd, I decided long ago to be "the bookies friend" as much as possible.

here is my raw plan from which another seven plans a filtered.


Saturdays and public holidays only..(public holidays optional)


1.consider only top three rated selections as supplied free per www.tab.com.au (http://www.tab.com.au) (trb). if three horses are all rated as 100 each these are your top 3 selections to consider....look no further down. Conversly e.g if top horse 100 ,2nd horse say 98 and three horses say equal at 96..all those horses are to be considered as in the top 3rated selections. (this is easier in practice than it looks here on paper.)

2. eliminate all horses 1st or second up from a spell..horse must have at least two starts since a spell.


3. eliminate all hurdles, maidens. Eliminate two year old races From Aug 1st thru to Jan 1st

4. eliminate from consideration, all the top three rated horses that are paying less than 9.00 to win on the morning tote win pools.(ensure that the win pool has reached 10k before using this elimination.) Alternatively, you can use the morning line prices in "The Asutralian"..(this is what I used to do when I had access to them, but I've had to modify that now that I no longer live in Australia.)

If two or more horses qualify after these rules are applied..eliminate the race from consideration altogether.. (If you must bet, I suggest backing the longer priced selection, but I personally dont do this).Sure you will miss a winner or two..but generally speaking, the race is telling me that there are too many chances..ie very open race.)

we'll call the final selection "Q" for no particular reason

This final selection (Q) may also qualify for the following plans...

QNR..not mentioned/ listed in the top 4 selections as per www.nswtab.com (http://www.nswtab.com) tipster selections, (Ian Craig for sydney). It can be a late mail selection
, but must not be sleceted in the first four tipster selections.

QLSW a final selection which is also a last start winner

QNRLSW a final selection that is both a non rated (mentioned) horse and is also a last start winner

TRQ a final selection which was top rated by the www.tab.com.au (http://www.tab.com.au) ratings. This includes horses that are top equal rated with one or more other horses.

TRQNR a final selection which is both top rated and not mentioned in the first four www.nswtab.com.au (http://www.nswtab.com.au) tipster selections

TRQLSW a final selection which is both top rated by the rating service and is also a last start winner

TRQNRLSW a final selection which is top rated, not mentioned and a last start winner

This means that a selection may be backed for a maximum of units if it qualifies in all 8 plans.

In Sydney..this year since Feb, level stakes win only

Q= 86 bets, 9 wins ...10% ...strike rate ...16% return on outlay (current run of outs 9.. highest outs= 17)

QNR 42 bets, 8 winners ...135% on outlay (current outs 2..longest 12)

QLSW 23 bets. 5 winners 216% on outlay (current outs 4..longest 7)

QNRLSW 12 bets 4 winners 394% (curent outs 3..longest 4)

TRQ 15 bets 4 winners 255% (current outs 1..longest 6)

TRQLSW 3 bets 2 wins 1350% (current outs 1 longest 1)

TRQNR 9 bets 4 wins 529% ( current outs 1 longest 2)

TRQNRLSW 2 bets 2 wins 1750% (current outs 0 longest 0)


These rules and plans have not been devised and applied retrospectively to create winners....They represent what I have done physically.

I am used to long runs of outs..ive ridden them for several years....and I hate losing on short priced faves. i especially like longer priced winners, so this works very well for me. It wont suit a lot of people and I have no fear of ruining prices by posting here..Even people who knew me and wanted to win could not follow this on the punt..even when I handed them the selections on a plate....Such is the nature of punting.

The choice of ratings service, and the win pool used, do not really matter, as far as I am concerned. Other ratings services may work as well. if not better. I have merely used what is freely available..available free.

What works for me now worked 15 yrs ago..it does not seem to have changed..I have had to modify by using different ratings services now and online win pools due to circumstances which have changed over the years, but the principles remain the same.

In esence this works, I believe, partly because of the fact that the horses backed by these methods do not have the bulk of betting money riding on them. These horses often win at attractive odds for owners and connections .Sure these selections usually shorten up over the course of the day..not always .but usually.You will note that I havent set an upper limit of odds available..only a minimum. (8-1 in the old school scale). Many a horse just fails to qualify because it doesnt quite make the 9.00 by the time that the win pool is 10k....so be it..you have to draw the line somewhere.

I like the idea of using a win pool in the home state in which the race is being run..i.e nswtab.com.au for Sydney. The vic tab is terrible for slow win pool updates on Sat mornings... ..so I usually go to nswtab and use their pool for a particular race..if it reaches 10k before the Vic one shows up.. using Supertab may be a better option...or maybe someone has a better place they can suggest to get accurate actual win pool divies. May be using say Iasbet fixed odds prices or thier approx win divvies as per the various tab prices would better suit some people. I use a 10K win pool as a starting point to try and get a more genuine price. Obviously, smaller win pools are more easily distorted by single large bets than a bigger winpool. it seems senseless to me to use tab prices when the win pool may be only a thousand dollars or so.

If you like to know what your bets are as early as possible, then I suggest you use the morning line prices from the newspaper..whatever you choose..stick with it and make it a constant...I used to do this when I lived in Australia..pre internet..

The original selection rules for "Q" came from a ratings service subscriber back in the early 1980's in Melbourne....back in the double overlay days when a good rating service could come up with great value selections...and the guys who did the ratings were also punting their ratings on track. They cleaned up big time for a time before their triumphs came under notice in the ring....

Brisbane is early days for me..too early to tell how that will go...(29 outs so far) I may also monitor (Mark Reads ?)ratings on Q-TAB for Brsibane..if I think TRb isnt good enough...

Melb is running at (9% loss overall this year so far, with a current run of outs of 9 and a highest of 31 outs on the Q plan. I am not phased by this, because I know that it doesnt take much to reverse the loss into a profit and there is safety in running three states., rather than just relying upon one. Even though I know that Sydney seems to be the most profitable, I'll continue to run with Melb and Bris in my portfolio. When one is up the other may be down...

One final observation..these final selections are seldom listed as "Latemail" selections as per www.nswtab.com.au (http://www.nswtab.com.au) ...in fact I worry when they are....not so much for the shortening of price, but more so for the fact that they dont seem to win...something to think about...

I welcome any suggestions

[crash]

w924,

I like the largest number possible in a horse's last start with this system. 1215 is a lot better than 5211 as far as odds go if it wins. Last start winners kill odds. This system has a lot of shorteners and short priced winners [but rarely odds on], but a surprising amount of drifters getting up at $12 to $14. I have tried PP up to $9 with this system over hundreds of bets and they just don't get up often enough to pay. $7 seems to be the magic mark of paying divies.

[w924]

w924,

I like the largest number possible in a horse's last start with this system. 1215 is a lot better than 5211 as far as odds go if it wins. Last start winners kill odds. This system has a lot of shorteners and short priced winners [but rarely odds on], but a surprising amount of drifters getting up at $12 to $14. I have tried PP up to $9 with this system over hundreds of bets and they just don't get up often enough to pay. $7 seems to be the magic mark of paying divies.

Interesting..I would have thought that the difference in win rates of $7 versus $9 would have been minimal, but if your stats state otherwise... I wont argue with that. lol.

Re "last start winners kill odds" yes sometimes ..but not always..esp if they are seemingly rising in class, or moving interstate or a long distance to race....

I do have a bit of a phobia of backing horses that have already won their last two starts.....esp if their win rate is not flash...no factual evidence here..just pure superstition lol. (i still have to back back them if they come up in my plans)

Speaking of last start winners..anyone following the Bet Selectors last start winners longshot plan? (as referred to in Punters Choice) ...I'm not..but it sounds interesting and more in line with I like best...

Shaun I'd be keen to read any of those posts that you mentioned from that site if you care to post them here..they sound juicy..

All the best

[crash]

w924

I really feel that your system should be in a thread of it's own, don't you think? It might get awfully messy here otherwise.

[punter57]

W924. Haven't had time to digest all of post 13 but I like the point of setting a minimum price and sticking to it; the higher the better. I especially like avoiding "the people's choice" and surely everyone knows it's far, far easier to "pull" a horse than to make one win (ie pull the fav/favs). Also like what you say in Post 15. After a torrid time explaining similar in another thread recently ("overs") it's heartening to find someone else who hasn't been conned by the bookies and their shorties. I will grab my records and have a good look at your suggestions this evening.
Crash. Re your Bookie challenge: I am NOT INTERESTED in wiping you out. Don't you understand? God how must it be to be a girl on a date with YOU!!! You are asking to lose SERIOUS money.
Putting that "I want your money" thing aside (post 12); your pride may prevent publicly admitting anything but despite that I really hope you make a bundle next Saturday if you've suddenly thought up a "new" selection method that lands a few in the 50s. This is not a joke. Good luck; you know what to look for. Cheers

[Shaun]

http://www.midcoast.com.au/~turfacts/turfacts.html

A lot of the links on the page don't work as the site has not been updated for a long time but i did like some of the money managment stuff and the staking

[Merriguy]

Hi w924,

What a mamoth and interesting post. Will have much to 'sleep on' tonight. Thanks for sharing your ideas with us :)

You certainly must be a bit of a whizz on the keyboard. It took four A4 pages just to download it!

Regards.

[Dale]

What about someone offerring a (mechanical) system which targets the NON-obvios chances??



Hi Punter 57

I'm with you,all these systems are just recycled versions of the same thing.

I and a few others have tried to provide a few alternatives but time after time nobody replies to them,i guess everyone is too set in their ways.


Crash,

Two points about your system i'd like to add,

1-I've always found the 4th last start to be irrelevant,the last 3 starts are a much better guide.

2-Your comment that i like the most relating to this sytem is

"I like the largest number possible in a horse's last start with this system. 1215 is a lot better than 5211 as far as odds go if it wins"

Now your thinking outside the box.................

[punter57]

Ok. Here's one. Since there have been a few people willing to think a little differently, you might give it a go (for a while, at least!!!)

Look at any races which are Open or above. This includes Open 3yo and races for females. At those Metro tracks which have No Metro Wins/1 Metro Win races etc you may wish to include these as well.

Rule 1) Select all horses which have NO places in the past three runs. Any spell (ie - or X) is ignored; treated like it isn't there. Example 2506 or 5X06. Any horse with 1 place in the past three IS acceptable if all three places add up to 19 or more (0 is worth 10). Example 2081 or 929 or 2X89 or 88X3 etc etc. You'll note that having two places means it can't possibly add up to 19. This first rule will bring "apparent" non-performers to the fore or horses which have only one vaguely "decent" run in three.
Rule 2) Look at past three runs of those from Rule #1 and keep any that have NOT been beaten 10 lengths or more, more than ONCE. ie If a horse has been thrashed twice (or three times) in three runs it is seriously hopeless and even one win/place with two thrashings is "probably" a fluke. It shouldn't stick to this grade.
Rule 3) Bet all that are left which are at 20 or MORE.

That's it!! Here you have horses going round in better grades who have been performing moderately and who are almost certain to be ignored by any kind of person looking for "consistency". Except if the win/place was Last Start or a win Second Last Start you will see few systems pinpointing these horses.Often the win/place will be in lower grades,if recent (hence the 20s on offer), or similar grade if the third or Second Last Start (the subsequent "poor" performance will have scared punters away; hence the 20s).
Your job is to check the beaten margins as this will tell you more than the 3X89 etc about where the horse actually was in the race. This idea is pretty basic but give it a go. Bet ALL the qualifyers. After a while you MIGHT want to quinella or even trifecta them as well (keep an eye on this for a few weeks).
Theoretically, a trainer who's horse is as "hopeless" as some of these will appear, "should" either spell the horse or DROP it (further?) in grade, if possible. That they don't is "suggestive". You may wish to discard horses who's only win/place (if they had one in the three races) or a close-up finish 2 lengths or less) was AT LONG ODDS, on the principle that THAT was the upset/shock improvement you "should've" been on. Because these horses ARE inconsistent it might be too much hoping for two "shocks" so close together. This last is only a suggestion. My advice on this is method..... Bet Small if you are not convinced, but if either Big or Small betting BE BRAVE!!! Cheers.

[w924]

hello all,

Sorry Crash to have posted in this thread..i really wasnt expecting much of a response.

Punter57 I'm gonna have to digest what you wrote...i can see how what i wrote is a lot to chew on.

Many thanks for the feedback.... Im always interested in reading what you all have to write. There are many ways to skin a cat..got to go with what works for you and exictes you..if you have to feel excited. that is.

I think the best punters do not get emotionally involved. They are neither up or down emotionally...just cool. I was a better punter in the early days when horses didnt actually interest me all that much and I knew absolutely nothing. I just had a plan using ratings that someone else did and I applied a plan to it, faithfully adhering to it.

It's difficult to avoid the constant hype and emotion of the racecourse and the media and eventually it gets you..you see a special horse and fall in love with it...

I still dont do my own ratings, though I have a grasp of how they are done, and I read Don Scotts book many times. I probably got more out of punters books of old than anything else. Luckily for me, I grasped the idea of applying a selection method (system) to ratings. I figured neither ratings or systems on thier own can stand alone, but can be powerful when combined.

[punter57]

Good afternoon. I know many wouldn't have had a chance to look at my Post 21. Still I'll let you know how it did in all the races in Brisbane/Melbourne/Wyong and Balaklava. It is designed for Saturdays and good racedays (hence the use of Opens and above), but might be applicable to lower class races on weekdays as these meetings tend to be lower quality. I've never looked into this.Anyway.

BR4 #5 No Place

MR4 #4 No Place #10 2nd $5.35 #11 No Place
MR5 #11 No Place
MR6 #1 3rd $10.70 #2 WON $26.00 and $5.90

NR7 #6 3rd $5.20 #8 No Place #11 No Place #13 No Place

AR8 #11 3rd $17.30
This gives 12 Bets $26.00 W (ie 133% POT)
$ 44.15 P (ie 270% POT)

This is a little unusual as the Win is generally better than the place. Obviously, had Kehlstein won at $83.20(Unitab) in Balaklava instead of only paying $17.30 for third, this would've been more "normal".
As I said you may wish to modify the "class" of racing for mid-week. Had you chosen Class 3, for example as your bottom quality for today you would have got;
BR5 # 10 which paid $56.80 W and $11.00 P.

I hope this can be of help to anyone with an interest in avoiding shortpriced money-burners. If you read this, Crash, feel free to look into it.(No need to acknowledge it, however) Good luck everyone.

[crash]

How about you take your system and give it it's own thread that it deserves Punter 57 [I'm not knocking it]? I think that would be fair enough. Don't you ?

[w924]

Hi Punter 57, a 26.00 winner..Now THAT has certainly got my full attention..you are talking my language here LOL. have you been monitoring this method for long? I'd be real interested to learn of your findings...Thanks again for the input!

[w924]

Hi Crash, Ive changed the "display mode" on this site and now I can finally determine the nanme and start of each thread. I see this thread was started by you and entitled "No brainer" etc. I'm sorry to have intruded.
All the best

[crash]

Well the thread name certainly seem to attract an enduring clientèle :-)

[crash]

There were 6 selections for today but 2 were scratched.

Melb.
R3/9 We can't say that [2nd. beaten by 148/1 shot]
R7/7 Our Smokin Joe [still to run]
Syd.
R3/4 Foxy Tyra [win 12.60 ]
Brisb.
R6/4 Umaprince [still to run]

[crash]

Our Smoking Joe and Imuprince both ran 3rd.

Outlay 4units Return 12.6

Total Win outlay so far 9 units. Return 19.9 units.

[w924]

Interesting.,..the only selection in that lot that came up in my own methods was Foxy Tyra..and it won..very interesting...

[crash]

Quote: "very interesting". Meaning 924 ?

What were your other selection your method turned up and how did they go ? Are your system rules on the forum or if not, at least it's pre-race selections, including Foxy Tyra ?

I can't seem to find either[?] 8-)

[feather]

Evening Crash, I have been following with interest, over the last two weeks, I also happened to pick up one extra horse both saturday's. I honestly dont know what sort of track is after "dead". also is the morning line price on line different to the newspaper price? , as that is where I took my prices from. I also looked at Wednesday just gone and had three horses for two winners $13.50 & $1.80 even though this is not a rule, but just trying to get the hang of it. thanks




4. Track no worse than dead.
6. Morning line odds no more than $7 from:

[crash]

Yes Feather, it runs 7 days a week but for the forum I only named Saturday as it is time consuming for few runners during the week and I didn't want to post results daily. I ran this system [daily] very profitably for a very long time. Then things hit the fan [spring time, so be careful] and I put it away again for a time.

Newspaper odds can be used but I use that site for sat. so there is no confusion when I print the results as they are checkable by anyone anywhere.



Cheers,

[w924]

hi Crash..
Quote: "very interesting". Meaning 924 ?

What were your other selection your method turned up and how did they go ? Are your system rules on the forum or if not, at least it's pre-race selections, including Foxy Tyra ?

I can't seem to find either[?] 8-)


interesting in that Punter 57's and my own method came up with the same selection and that the only co inciding selection won. I apologise for not explaining myself better there.

Yes the rules were posted just a few days ago . It was on this very thread and someone was a bit pissed off that I put them there..wrong thread or something..

Anyway, I didnt come here to boast or to fight... and I'll post the selections here tomorrow after I retrieve them from home. the ones I posted were using the QLD tab ratings and I use the TRb ratings.

[crash]

Hi 924,

Sorry for any misunderstanding but I wasn't sure of your point because I looked for your system thread and couldn't find it. I normally don't look for other member's systems on my own thread.

No, I wasn't peeved about you posting your system here. I was just hinting at forum 'etiquette'. Threads can get very unwieldy and after checking, my thread has 2 other systems on it so far and is already up to 4 pages of posts that mostly have nothing at all to do with my system. As you are going to post your system selections here, I think I'll start a new thread because I want to follow and post results for some time. I'm not getting into what is going to start looking like a system competition either, though I'm not saying that is you intention. It just that people are going to start getting confused with which selections and results belong to which system.

Good luck and good punting.

[w924]

Hi Crash,

navigating my way around here is still a real mission for me. and again I apologise for my posting of a selection method in your thread..I started out replying to something and it just grew into a rather large post as I opened up to reveal my personal methods...I guess thats what happens when one thinks out loud lol. AS far as ettitquette goes, yes I could have begun a new thread with it. However, interest has waned much in just a couple of days so it confirms my earlier suspicions that most people would not be interested and that it didnt warrant its own thread.

Crash, I agree with you . There seems to be far too much aggression on this forum..what does that say about serious punters? Are we generally so insecure, masochistic and lacking in social skills as a result of our narrow focussed lifestyle? Does this only apply to Australian punters who feel as though they are getting the crap beat out of them and everything is a battle?, or is this a worldwide thing? lol. I think it a real shame that people are so prone to attack here..this is a great vehicle for punters to enjoy each others company.

You asked me what my selections were on saturday, as I had only posted what the selections were using the Qtab ratings. So here goes

Sydney Foxy Tyra Q Won 13.08 iasbet

melbourne: Q Long Walk unpl

Bianomour QNR (2 units) Unpl

Future analysis TRQLSW (3 units) unpl

Caprizzi Strip Q 3rd. $6.90 nsw ($8 vic?)

Final Express QNR (2 units) Won 8.55

Bris: Daneful QNR (2 units) unpl

Past Tense Q unpl

Crystal Wit QNR (2 units) unpl

Btw I only bet to win..i dont bet e/w or place

Cheers

[crash]

"Btw I only bet to win..i don't bet e/w or place"

Well we certainly have something in common there w934 and I think our logic is on firm ground [donning fireproof suit as this will be read by others].

Re your other point:
"Crash, I agree with you . There seems to be far too much aggression on this forum..what does that say about serious punters?"

Well, if we were playing tennis and we loose, well ...we just loose.
With punting when we loose, we loose $$$ and for some, probably many of them. Not everyone has a dog to kick :-)

Cheers.

[w924]

<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->

"Btw I only bet to win..i don't bet e/w or place"

Well we certainly have something in common there w934 and I think our logic is on firm ground [donning fireproof suit as this will be read by others].

I just cant live with the low p.o.t on e/w betting..it just aint worth it for me when backing longer priced horses because one seldom gets true value..i.e 1/4 the win price, or better. The profit margin on the place really knocks the win punting dollar around. Wityh short priced horses it may be a different scenario altogether...but that is not my area.

I know others will disagree, and that is fine by me. Ive looked at this long and hard and I cant make the numbers work for me...

When a horse is paying $7 or so for the place.. I can see the old maxim "pick em to win and back 'em for a place" coming to the fore, but I am not a place bettor.

With win betting you can get too many seconds..with e/w betting you get too many 4ths..lol As for Trifectas etc..it gets even worse for me..yet I know that others love Tri's...and they know how to make them work.

[crash]

I agree with all that w934 so I won't quote you.

The place prices on odds-on [or close to it] is an area that a bit of dosh can be made, but for the effort involved ....forget it. I'm happy in the $3 to $7 SP win area [mostly]. I will take long-odds if I spot something I think has a good chance who has odds way over what I think they should be. In the end it's all about percentages and trying to get better odds than the house for most of our winners.

[feather]

Crash today i looked at the ias site for opening prices, had two races today at warrick farm - r4 spy zaim and r6 sullivans creek . I accidently picked up one at tamworth today r6 laughing cavalier. Will be looking forward to the new thread saturday. thanks

[crash]

Were doing well here Feather.

Wednesday:
Just had a quick look at today's fields for this system at 2pm.

I see a qualifier at Adl. R9/4 Angelina Ballerina $4.60 pp. on the site I recommended at beginning of thread for PP prices. Very good Jock on-board.

[crash]

Rats. Came 2nd.

[feather]

crash, i had another one today ar7-3 grey knight, opening price was $4.20, came third, paying $2.00, while i normally do not place bet, i did so on these two today. so i'm happy, was grey knight a selection or did I make a mistake somewhere? thanks

[crash]

Feather,

No, I just missed seeing R7/3. Both winners of R7 and R9 were smokies.
I've looked through my records for this system and a place or e/w system would work [going on system's past performance only]. I'm a masochist though and will stick to win :-)
I'm not sure how you came up with Sullivan's Creek at W/F, as it was $8 pp not the max $7. Did you use newspaper odds?

Make sure any selections pass the no more than 21 days since last start rule, it's easy to forget to check and it's a very important rule. I originally used 16 days, but it cut out too many runners [higher % of winners though]. The goal of the rule is to assure as much as possible, that runners pulled up soundly after their last run and haven't any niggling problems we don't know about.

Forget WA with this system. It's hopeless. Their class system is not part of the real world and the lower classes kill the system. The Westies probably understand it though :-)

[feather]

Thanks for that Crash,
Sullivans creek was paying $8.00 in the newspaper, but looking on the ias site it opening price was $6.00,
I didn't realize there would be so many different pricesl

[crash]

Pre-Post prices are the ones you want. Too many runners shorten for SP to be any guide. There are differing SP prices around, but if you use the same source all the time [whatever it is], It should all come out in the wash as a similar result over time.

For this thread I'm just using the WA PP odds on Sat. [mainly, but if the odds are there on the site I'll throw in Wed.]. I've found Sund, and Mon.[ along with WA] very poor days for this system, especially Sund. All 3 should be avoided.

[punter57]

Crash and Feathers, good morning. This is a continuing problem with ANY system containing PP prices, ratings, tipster polls and the like (ie Unitab Picks and late mail) in their rules. But especially for systems trying to select "firmers" These assessments often differ from one another and are not CONSISTENT within themselves. The person assessing the PP odds may vary from week to week, even if it's in the same paper or on the same web-site. They may be in a hurry and not give their full attention or else HAND THE JOB TO THE OFFICE BOY. Thus, the punter is forced to depend on an inconsistent source, wondering why he's winning one week and not the next..
For example, that longish-priced one that Crash and w924 (their systems!) agreed on last Saturday, Foxy Tyra, may have fitted both using the Sydney papers and TAB but not the Qld etc etc (it didn't). Using anything like polls, expected odds and what-have-you puts you or me in the position of being "told" (one way or the other) how to direct our money by a multitude of (often) disagreeing "experts", who may NOT be experts. Likewise opening TAB odds: which TAB is the "best" guide? Is the "big money" using Unitab one day and Supertab the next??
This won't be a problem, while you're generally winning BUT as soon as the losers start appearing and you notice that some other ratings or odds-framer or TAB would've been "right" then the temptation to switch (or use them all) will grow. Soon enough the temptation to jiggle it a bit further will appear, (what about accepting 60% PP odds??) and so on. This is why there is a "system" for every factor known, both good and bad. The only consistent winning methods are those which have "fundamental" priciples underlying them, and which can be utilized without taking "the word" or "stated opinions" of others into account. My advice: avoid anything to do with PP odds, except (maybe) when looking for overs not UNDERS.. Cheers.

[partypooper]

Punter57, I have always been wary of any method that relies solely on the PP from any particular sourse, and suggest that a way of minimising the risk of the "office boy" is to use the selection when your choice of 3 or 4 different sources have the same clear pick as fav. eg. Radio, Tab-form and say SMH, (don't know where they get their prices just picked those 3 at random).

Consensus picks are different I reckon that's dangerous ground.
Another one that doesn't make sense to me is when a method indicates certain days of the week, as, if it's a mechanical phenomenom, how can it work on Tuesday but not Thursday?? just food for thought.

[BJ]

Well said P57 and Partypooper... Although I just skimmed your posts, I think they contain my thoughts exactly.

PrePost odds in the newspaper are just how 1 person has rated the fields...
The Late Mail, is just somebodies tips.

Information is power in this game, and if you rely purely on one source for punting then you might as well just cut a hole in the bottom of your wallet now.
And yes, if this one person that you are relying on their ratings, is only good at rating on certain days then please find another hobby.

There is another thread about suicide and the martingale system at the moment. I would suggest that this would be step 2.....

[w924]

Hi Punter 57, yes I largely agree withg you re pre post odds in newspapers. Alternatively, using the win pool of the tab of the home state at the 10k win pool mark makes much more sense to me. It is the actual price on offer, not something picked out of the sky by a person (s) or computer ratings. True, I used to use the Australian newspaper pre post prices back in the pre internet days..and they were ok because there wasnt anything better. Today it is a far different story.

Yesterday, using the QLd tab top three rated horses and the Syd tab win pool, there was just the one selection, using my Saturday plans, at Canterbury in an open company race for 4yr plus....See Me Smile...opened at around $10.00 and won at about same price, although better fixed odds were available.

At the risk of being judged a smartarse here, I'm going to use this selection to illustrate some points:

1. it won paying more than $9 (not $7 or less)

2. It was a last start winner..a factor which some people here think means no particular advantage...

3. it was a $10 last start winner, decrying the myth that last start winners go out too short....

Surely, this illustrates, rather well, that there is still good value to be had out there..esp when one also considers this:
The horse was not only in the top three rated selections as on QLD Tab., it was also in the top three or 4 Ian Craig selections..hardly a longshot chance one would think....


See me Smile (tab#5) jumped from 3 barrier, (nothing wrong with barrier draw either) hit the front and led all the way ...nice ride by J Ford... it was running around at a price that owners, trainers and bookmakers can all benefit from...but not the fave punter who has done his nuts yet again...

Did I back See me Smile? not that it really matters...but yes I did..x2 ...because it was a QLSW..and the race was of reasonable quality for a non saturday event. I also backed Texarcana, even though it was not really a qualifier..being in a restricted 3yr event of dubious betting quality..but at 26.00 I thought it worth a tickle... It certainly wasnt the worst runner and gave me a run for my money.....Midweek is play time for me anyway...Saturdays are my bread and butter..

I just dont buy the idea that value has gone out of punting..or that I will go broke backing longer priced horses...it simply makes no sense to me.. .I believe I will go broke backing faves and the real shorties tho.....it takes too much to turn the losses around whereas a good value horse quickly puts one back on top in one fell swoop...Whilever punters try and follow "smart money" (a likely oxymoron if ever there was one), late mail and media tips, I have a very reasonable chance of turning a profit. I amnot suggesting that anyone punt like me...it takes discipline to ride the outs and belive me, there are big outs.but I dont bet day to day, week to week, or month to month...and most bookies are the same...they dontb try to get out on the last race...there is no last race...until we stop punting.

[BJ]

Hi Punter 57, yes I largely agree withg you re pre post odds in newspapers. Alternatively, using the win pool of the tab of the home state at the 10k win pool mark makes much more sense to me. It is the actual price on offer, not something picked out of the sky by a person (s) or computer ratings.



The price on offer? No, it is the approximate dividend.
While this is a better idea than prepost markets, I still wouldn't rely on it... The people that are serious about backing horses will not bet on the tote. They will bet fixed odds. Watch the fixed odds, and you know where the tote is heading.
A lot of the later money on the tote is from the bookies anyway.

The 10k mark is not really relevant when the total pool reaches 500k. Perhaps a better idea would be 1 minute before jump time, when half the pools have been filled....

[feather]

I would like to reply but think I would sound to pathetic. But have taken note of whats been said.
Crash, still taking an interest in this "no brainer system" thanks. Look forward to saturday

[crash]

I'm thinking along the same lines Feather. Of course I don't see any systems posted in other threads to back the "wisdom" used to prove the point[s] of where I'm going wrong.

I am [hardly, especially when it comes to systems] not the one here making claims of superior methodology knowledge. There is nothing here for me to prove :-)

[Dale]

Could the knockers of Pre Post Prices provide an explanation as to why these odds deliver the same % of 1st favs,2nd favs etc year after year?

I'd like to meet this office boy to shake his hand,every single week he narrows the field down to 7 or 8 chances for me while i am still in bed,the fact that he can come up with the winner over 90% of the time is absolutely amazing.

Before you step up to knock the office boy and his pre post odds ask yourself if you could even get close to his over 90% of winners from 7 or 8 selctions,bet you cant.

I also have to laugh at people who knock pre post odds but spend hours and hours doing their own ratings and converting them to odds and in the end dont have a product all that much better than pre post odds.

Heres an idea why not save some time use the pre post odds as a starting point and fine tune them to produce a decent betting line.

[w924]

Hi BJ,
"The price on offer? No, it is the approximate dividend".

Yes BJ, you are correct..poor choice of words on my part....it is the actual dividend on offer at that time, if the pool was closed at that point. What it does do, over and above the pp odds in the newspaper, is display what real money has gone on to the horses thus far...its a good base to work from ...not perfect but it's a baseline...

"The people that are serious about backing horses will not bet on the tote. They will bet fixed odds. Watch the fixed odds, and you know where the tote is heading.
A lot of the later money on the tote is from the bookies anyway. "

Sorry, BJ have to disagree with you there. Serious punters do bet on the tote...trust me..esp on the longer priced horses..they usually get better value there. Big bets get spread over totses and boopkmakers to spraed the risk and hold up prices..its a fact of life. I dont know how anyone could prove otherwise...
Re bookmakers..they are also serious punters aren't they? I'll concede that some credit bettors sometimes use bookies exclusively..esp when they are experiencing a cash crisis...but make no mistake..the tote is certainly used by professionals...

The 10k mark is not really relevant when the total pool reaches 500k.
I'll agree, but we dont often have 500k win pools on the tote either. 10k is a just starting point..decreed to be more reliable than say a 3k winpool, or the newspaper pp...and used so that I can come up with my selections well ahead of race time....This is a very important factor...Many successful serious punters are successful because they go to the track, knowing exactly which horses they are going to back, before they get through the turnstiles. They dont wait until 1 minute prior to decide what they are going to back..

Perhaps a better idea would be 1 minute before jump time, when half the pools have been filled.

I agree that this could better suit some off course punters etc...esp those following the money, or betting the tris quinellas etc..and I knew pros who did this on course..jamming up tote windows to take their last minute tris etc based upon shortners in the ring......It can also place incredible pressure on a punter with time running out..judgement can get thrown so easily, and mistakes made...That 1 minute prior is the most turbulent for tote prices...the tote pools take time to adjust to the money pouring in..often the jump price is way different to the price 1 minute before the jump..and as you mention, that is time when bookies are also laying off...

Orchestrating a sizeable bet on a longshot is something to treasure.. I have lived a very full life, but nothing comes close to the feeling one gets when successfully backing a "longshot" for a substantial return. It is an experience that only those who have actually done it, will know exactly what I am writing about.

It goes something like this...you go to the track knowing which horse you are going to back..Despite whatever happens in the ring, nothing is going to sway your judgement. You are going to back this horse for x amount of dollars. You "have to bet it 5 times becasue thats how it came up in your plans..The only thing that will stop the bet from happening is if it is a late scratching, or poor value..ie opening or avail odds below what your methods tell you are required. An incredibly long price on offer is not going to make you unduly worry, switch horses, or reduce your outlay., it just means that you have to be discrete when backing it, if you want maximum returns...

You begin, placing bets around the ring, in such a way as to not draw attention, and plummet the price too dramtically. You may either do this alone or with friends to help you. You have already visited the tote window and you revisit the tote to place a bet that will not dent the win dividend too much too quickly. The minutes tick by...You have placed all your money and have time to kill before the jump. You cant believe that the tote price has held up so well and is still offering incredible value. You note the funds pouring in and the odds tumbling on the fave in the ring....not phased by this, you are instead quite excited, and decide to plonk on some more...afterall, your selection is the bargain of the year as far as you are concerned...

[w924]

Hi Dale,

"I also have to laugh at people who knock pre post odds but spend hours and hours doing their own ratings and converting them to odds and in the end dont have a product all that much better than pre post odds."

I'm lost for words lol

[BJ]

Could the knockers of Pre Post Prices provide an explanation as to why these odds deliver the same % of 1st favs,2nd favs etc year after year?

I'd like to meet this office boy to shake his hand,every single week he narrows the field down to 7 or 8 chances for me while i am still in bed,the fact that he can come up with the winner over 90% of the time is absolutely amazing.

Before you step up to knock the office boy and his pre post odds ask yourself if you could even get close to his over 90% of winners from 7 or 8 selctions,bet you cant.

I also have to laugh at people who knock pre post odds but spend hours and hours doing their own ratings and converting them to odds and in the end dont have a product all that much better than pre post odds.

Heres an idea why not save some time use the pre post odds as a starting point and fine tune them to produce a decent betting line.


Well he must be doing something wrong if he is rating the field yet only winning 90% of races...

[Dale]

Well he must be doing something wrong if he is rating the field yet only winning 90% of races...


What???????????????????