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dinodog
29th June 2002, 09:29 AM
hi all

i have a mathematical problem. say i have 4 horses all with a chance to win, and on average, if i back all of them at level stakes, 63% of the time, one will win and show a lot of 14%. now the problem.

if i dutch bet to double my money, knowing ofcourse that sometimes the prices won't allow and sometimes i more than double, can i win. or is there a level of price on the return ie. money back plus 5% that determines a line between winning and losing and how do i work it out?

regards

dinodog

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2002-06-29 10:43 ]</font>

dinodog
29th June 2002, 09:42 AM
hi again

some of that didn't come out "right".
i know that getting a negative return on any particular race will mean a loss so therefore no bet. so obviously there are some races where price tells me i can't bet. but can i win on the others with a flat stake loss?

regards

dinodog

thekey
29th June 2002, 09:57 AM
Backing 4 horses per race it is hard to only take 50% of the market (unless you back roughies or it is a very open race) Your best chance would be if you leave out a short priced favourite. ie lay the fav as if you were a bookie only you don't take the whole field to beat it just your 4 picks.
If your strike rate is 63% you should on average bet less than 63% of the market to have any chance.

For example over 100 races you outlay 7500 (75/race average) but only 63 times do you get 100 back. Loss = 1200. However if you only outlay 5000 to get back 6300 you win!

dinodog
29th June 2002, 10:06 AM
hi thekey

i should have told you "i'm stupid" from the outset.

mate, i thankyou for the reply, but the last two paragraphs go straight over my head. is it possible that you spell it out a lttle clearer?

i should also mention the av win div is $5.41

regards

dinodog

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2002-06-29 11:11 ]</font>

thekey
29th June 2002, 05:34 PM
Sorry about that.

To understand the percentages go to the odds calculator available on this site or work them out yourself.

Example : Horse A 4/1 or 5.00 = 100/5 =20%

This is all you need to do. Bookies will always set their market to well over 100%.

When you mentioned dutch betting I assumed you would be betting to the available prices. ie 20 @ 5.00 returns 100 etc. This way you win the same amount regardless of which horse wins.

When I say you would need your average outlay to be less than the equivalent % in my previous post You would work out your outlay as follows:
A 20@5.00
B 10@10.00
C 25@4.00
D 14@7.00

This makes your total outlay 69% or 69 units so if one of these horses wins you get back 100. So you win 31. Too easy you say. Well it might seem so but if over 100 races this was your average outlay (69) but you only collected 100, 63 times, you have outlay 6900 to return 6300.

I hope this makes it a bit clearer.

Debug
29th June 2002, 06:07 PM
Hi
You might try using a banker with your dutching. Here is an example of 4 horses covered by dutching. The first group is standard dutching for a $50 bet.
Price Units Profit
$3.60 18 14.80
$5.00 12 15.00
$6.10 11 17.10
$8.20 8 15.60
Total bet 50

This second group using the same prices has made the $3.60 horse a banker. That is it is calculated for just enough return to cover your bet, but look how the profit on the other horses has gone up by approx 65%.
Price Units Profit
$3.60 14 0.40 (banker)
$5.00 15 25.00
$6.10 12 23.20
$8.20 9 23.80
Total bet 50

You would probably use this type of bet when you want to hedge your bets by covering the favourite in case it came in.

Equine Investor
29th June 2002, 08:46 PM
Always bear in mind when setting prices in dutching, that unless you can get fixed odds, that you are at the mercy of the price fluctuations, therefore any significant movement in prices can see you dutching 4 horses and getting the winner but still losing on the race.

You may also like to consider say taking the favourite only to recoup your investment (a saver), but the next three to make a profit. That way when the favourite wins, at least you get money back, but if one other salutes, you make a lot more profit.

Just a factor to consider there.

dinodog
30th June 2002, 07:44 AM
hi the key debug and el

i thankyou for your replys.

some great info there, and i assume what you are all saying is " yes , you will make a profit dutching those horses either when the prices are right or hedging, regardless of the flat stake loss"

i like the sound of the hedging when the prices are restrictive. it brings more races into play.

once again thankyou

regards

dinodog

Bhagwan
9th July 2002, 07:29 AM
Try this .
Approach No.1
Only bet on the races where there are 2 or more of the 4 horses , paying $8.00+ otherwise no bet that race.

Betting the same amt on each.