Why pay money for a system?

[Guitar Jim]

Regarding horse racing; no mechanical system, or versions or variations thereof, has ever..... not once........produced a *genuine*, *permanent* and thus verifiable profit. Never, ever, over the past few hundred years. ALL seemingly profitable systems eventually collapse into loss.
Yet every day someone, somewhere, claims to have cracked the safe that delivers the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Mostly it's just the casual punter boasting of his skill to his friends and acquaintances.
However, right from the beginning, there's been crafty people who fully understand all this: So they develop a "system", a system that shows past paper profits; they market the system and very cleverly walk the legal highwire that enables them to advertise in certain ways. They of course "charge" for their "profitable" methods.

Can even one person out there tell me why someone who knows of a "genuine, permanent" profit making method of punting would tell ANYONE about it? And then proceed to ask money for it?
We really know the answer to that don't we.......... or do we? There's still millions of desperados the world over who live in hope of finding a winning method. If it wasn't for these naive individuals, hooked on gambling, the horse racing industry would collapse overnight: The owners, trainers, tipsters, racecourses and everyone who makes a living out of the industry knows it.
So nobody, absolutely nobody, who is involved with running the various sections of the industry is willing to educate and counsel the punter......... they rely on naive punters who think they can win.
And those my friends, are the cold, hard facts of life.

[jose]

Are you a punter Guitar?
If so, why?
If not, why in the name of fortune are you in this forum.

[Guitar Jim]

To answer your 3 questions:
(1) I have a history of punting. But I'm not one of the professional .01% who actually win. I don't bet anymore, but maintain an interest .
(2) I answered your second question with my above sentences.
(3) To witness how the naive masses, after centuries of losing, still maintain hope....... it's a poignant representation of psychology, and determination in the face of unbearable odds. It's fascinating. It's sad. And it's very, very human.

[jose]

You must be at about the same stage as myself.
Try as I might I couldn't seem to get on top of the punt, from buying oil to setting up my own ratings to testing systems and back again.
I am now just happy to have my $20 or $30 dollars spread around on a saturday afternoon and write it off as entertainment.
Still love the challenge of it all though.
Good on the lucky few who can make a go of it though.(barring the bookmakers of course)

[Guitar Jim]

I think I better shut up now. I've probably offended a few punters with my views. I don't really want to start a war of words so I'll just butt out on this topic now. If anyone wants to comment on this subject, or criticize my views, please do so if you wish.... or just totally ignore it, but this is the last word I'll post on the topic. I think I'm probably coming across too strongly and you guys aren't here to listen to that sfuff.

[crash]

Initially I thought you might just be 'slumming it' Jim but I've read few of your posts [more positive ones] and you seem genuine enough to me and even half decent !! You might just be right about systems, but might also be wrong. Your logic on the matter would stand up to any opposing logic but proof either way of course is impossible so it's a mute point.

Perhaps you have recently had a bad day on the punt[?] We all have those and boy, it's a lonely game punting, especially on a bad day. We all visit that place.

[Mark]

.01% ???? I honestly believe you'll find it's higher than that.

[crash]

Na, your it Mark [rolling in our losses]. Mr .01% !!!

[BJ]

To answer your 3 questions:
(1) I have a history of punting. But I'm not one of the professional .01% who actually win. I don't bet anymore, but maintain an interest .
(2) I answered your second question with my above sentences.
(3) To witness how the naive masses, after centuries of losing, still maintain hope....... it's a poignant representation of psychology, and determination in the face of unbearable odds. It's fascinating. It's sad. And it's very, very human.


In regards to point 1...
Do you not think that this is a complete contradiction to your initial post.?

Here you admit that people win on the punt. Yet your first post says that this is impossible.

Also, another thing I would like to comment on.
"(3) To witness how the naive masses, after centuries of losing, still maintain hope....... it's a poignant representation of psychology, and determination in the face of unbearable odds. It's fascinating. It's sad. And it's very, very human."

Are you talking about yourself here? Or what is it you wish to achieve by visiting a forum like this?
Are you here to preach to us? Or are you here to maintain hope, with the rest of the naive masses....?

[gazman]

hey jim i've read your posts and jim jim jim jim jim if you have done your nuts on the punt mate you really are in the wrong place to be telling us who bother to read and post on here becouse i think you might find that some of us are doing A. O .K so i think you should do alittle bit more homework and you might stop losing and your world might be a lot brighter than it sounds..cheers..gaz..

[Guitar Jim]

Ok, you drew me out of the woodwork regarding one or two comments , which I'll address...... then I'll go away.
BJ, there's zero contradiction there; you didn't read my post properly, not that that's unexpected considering this is a gambling forum. I didn't say it's impossible to win. I said it's impossible to win, on a permanent basis, by using mechanical systems and related methods. Regarding your second point; I'm here to "preach", because lets face it, gamblers on a betting forum will otherwise never be told the truth.... for obvious reasons; and the vast majority don't want to hear the truth anyway. That's why I initially said I won't continue posting on this subject... I know folks don't want to hear this stuff. So I said it once and intended to simply leave it at that. You asked am I talking about myself......... that's an old debating trick well known, well used and well researched: When someone complains or criticizes something the trick is to turn the debate around and accuse the complainer of exactly the thing he/she is complaining about. You'll have to do better than that BJ ol' boy.
Now to Gazman; here we go again, gamblers are highly predictable. According to Gazman there's a chance I may have "done my nuts on the punt", I should "do my homework and then I might stop losing" then my "world might be a lot brighter"........ presumably I'd then be a real profit taker like the "some of us that are doing A.O.K.". Remember what I said about that debating ploy Gazman? Go back and read it, you've probably forgotten..... then read it 10 times .... ah forget it, you probably still wouldn't understand it. That's the problem with some gamblers, they are so blinkered and lacking in insight that they can't understand even the simple mechanics and mathematics of losing. There's always the next bet, or next system, to give hope.
So that's it! My last word. Really, truly!
You may now take out the knives.... convinced that I'm a hopelessly addicted losing gambler who needs a life and who really comes here so he might get some important information about winning on the punt.. As Jeff Fenech would say "I love youse all". Ya gotta smile. Bye.
By the way, the above was written with a good dose of sarcasm and humour...... but I suspect that will go over the heads of some. That's life.

[crash]

Hi Jim,

Haven't you noticed everyone here is a 'winner'? Ever read a post here saying "I'm a looser"? Course you haven't.
I've punted on and off for 35yrs. and no punter say's it [I'm a mug-punter idiot].Banging their head away on the wall saying"this doesn't hurt and I keep doing it because there is hope I won't get a headache".
Yeah, there is a bit of that going on here, but many punters, like with their drinking, have punting well under control
and enjoy what they are doing. It's budgeted into our lifestyle along with everything else. And yes, winning is possible but not all the time and probably never long term for most of us anyway.

[davez]

glad to see the doom & gloom merchants peddling their wares once again.

the thing about being an "ex" (smoker, drinker, gambler, husband!) appears to be tragic amount of baggage that one accumulates & ocassionally needs to unload.

& as i am currently 2 out of the 4 "ex's" mentioned above i do know what i am talking about! :)

[w924]

Hi Jim,

well you have certainly stirred the pot with that post :)

"ALL seemingly profitable systems eventually collapse into loss."

What is the longest period, that you know of, that a systematic approach has been profitable? I'd be interested to learn...

Without a systematical approach to finding selections, and backing them, I dont see how anyone can possibly produce long term profits. This applies equally to using ratings...and applying a systematic approach to best using them..

maybe i'm misinterpreting what you are writing..becasue unless I am, you are saying that no one can make money in the long term...bookies included..dont forget bookies are betting on horses too....

" Can even one person out there tell me why someone who knows of a "genuine, permanent" profit making method of punting would tell ANYONE about it? And then proceed to ask money for it?"


Jim, I just dont buy that.."why would someone sell a winning method?" line. If that was the case Don Scott would never have written his book... and I have given one example where a selection method was given away freely. Not everyone in this world is driven by personal selfish needs...trust me...For some it is ego..for others it's an inability to keep a secret for a long time, and for others it is purely just to help out fellow humans..

I am the first to agree that there are people out there who develop systems for the sole reason of making money by selling those methods...but that is a totally different story in my book. I admit that it certainly gives methodical approaches a bad name.

All the best Jim
Cheers

[joelance]

I think what Jim is saying is that most punters will finish behind in the long run. Betting mathematics would suggest this is true. If we look at betting on the tote...win betting returns 86% of the pool back to the punter..therefore most punters by definition must lose. The bookies operate at over 100% most of the time therefore they have the odds in their favour and this is one of the main reasons they finish in front.

Some punters do win..they are usually the ones that have a unique logical approach that is not in the mainstream. Don Scott published his methods after they became well known to others as he stated. If you purely followed Don Scotts methods today you would end up losing. When Don Scott was using his approach in the 70's and early 80's they were unique and he was getting great overlays. Today most of the ratings based on DS are favourites and not overlays but underlays. You need to take them to a higher level.

And i am sure some punters have either taken them to a higher level or established better techniques to rating horses. Of course we wont know about these people because they are unlikely to publish their methods.

[john spencer]

well said joelance. in recent years the wider racing and betting community has taken on the fast food rush-rush mentality of society in general . having been punting for over 30 years i have seen this lead to a sharp growth in an almost keno mentality in the way racing is promoted and hence also a rise in 'get rich sytems' .

It think the point to be made is that a system is just that - systematic . it is rigid and allows for limited flexibility . just the very words " guaranteed' , 'sure thing' , 'instant wealth' should send a shiver up most peoples spines.

from where i sit what lacks most in recent years is a 'get back to basics' approach . this has been lost in the 1 race every 3 and 4 minutes 7 days a week beamed into our tabs and pubs and homes. for this reason , i for one have found it heartening that some of the newer sites like racehorsedata.com (http://www.racehorsedata.com/) are actually seen to be trying to promote re-education by challenging the punter to think for themselves and not listen to the guy on the radio with the 'late mail' heard over last night steak and chips.


John

[BJ]

Ok, you drew me out of the woodwork regarding one or two comments , which I'll address...... then I'll go away.
BJ, there's zero contradiction there; you didn't read my post properly, not that that's unexpected considering this is a gambling forum. I didn't say it's impossible to win. I said it's impossible to win, on a permanent basis, by using mechanical systems and related methods. Regarding your second point; I'm here to "preach", because lets face it, gamblers on a betting forum will otherwise never be told the truth.... for obvious reasons; and the vast majority don't want to hear the truth anyway. That's why I initially said I won't continue posting on this subject... I know folks don't want to hear this stuff. So I said it once and intended to simply leave it at that. You asked am I talking about myself......... that's an old debating trick well known, well used and well researched: When someone complains or criticizes something the trick is to turn the debate around and accuse the complainer of exactly the thing he/she is complaining about. You'll have to do better than that BJ ol' boy.
Now to Gazman; here we go again, gamblers are highly predictable. According to Gazman there's a chance I may have "done my nuts on the punt", I should "do my homework and then I might stop losing" then my "world might be a lot brighter"........ presumably I'd then be a real profit taker like the "some of us that are doing A.O.K.". Remember what I said about that debating ploy Gazman? Go back and read it, you've probably forgotten..... then read it 10 times .... ah forget it, you probably still wouldn't understand it. That's the problem with some gamblers, they are so blinkered and lacking in insight that they can't understand even the simple mechanics and mathematics of losing. There's always the next bet, or next system, to give hope.
So that's it! My last word. Really, truly!
You may now take out the knives.... convinced that I'm a hopelessly addicted losing gambler who needs a life and who really comes here so he might get some important information about winning on the punt.. As Jeff Fenech would say "I love youse all". Ya gotta smile. Bye.
By the way, the above was written with a good dose of sarcasm and humour...... but I suspect that will go over the heads of some. That's life.

You didn't say it is impossible to win, just impossible to win on a permanent basis by using mechanical systems and related methods. Well how are these "professional .01%" winning on the punt then?
I call that a contradiction.

"Can even one person out there tell me why someone who knows of a "genuine, permanent" profit making method of punting would tell ANYONE about it? And then proceed to ask money for it?"

Here you are suggesting that these systems exist, but the ones getting sold are clearly scams. Yet another contradiction.

Please do not categorise everybody that has a punt on the horses as desperadoes. I personally take offense to it. Yes there are people that are desperate to find the holy grail and they probably never will. At the same time though, there are people who enjoy having a bet. They have fun it is within their budget, and nobody gets hurt. Then there are people that treat it like a business.

Let me tell you this Guitar Jim. It is possible to win long term on the punt. Just because you don't know how to, doesn't mean it can't be done.
Right now the opportunities are there to do this. It may not last forever, but no money will be lost on it when the opportunities dry up. It cannot lose.
I do not need to go into any detail, I am in it for myself. I could care less what you believe because I believe something different. You haven't provided any proof of anything, just your opinion, which you are welcome to.
I know I haven't provided any proof either. But, the difference is you are trying to change my views, not the other way around.

Now go and preach somewhere else.

[gazman]

hey there all ,,,,,,,JIM,JIM.JIM,JIM,JIM,,,,,,momma allways said funny is as funny does...but great wordsmith work there jim i'm sure you were the champ at debate camp!!!!!!!!!!goining for a fish in the morning ,so i'll put all my loses on then and that will be that easy job out of the way i wont even check my accounts out when i get home becouse i''ll know the outcome thanks to your insights too how my world works....but like unlike you jim some of the best things in my life i did not pay for..................
crash if you read this ''thread ''you will see that some one said that they could not make any money and they use it as a recreational tool maybe in the same way as i go fishing, but some people will allways read with there ears and look with their wallet...mmmmmmfresh dhue fish ,,i'll have a nice chardonay for you jim,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.hey BJ i'd have you on my debate team but i'm not going to debate camp with you...cheers.gaz..
PS jim buy a guitar and learn how to play it and you might relise that nothing comes easy...............

[crash]

Waxing philosophical there Gazza ?
Horses ain't as hard as playing a guitar [well]. A Banjo is cooler than doing either though.

Money is...well only money. But a Banjo is a "BANJO" !!!

[gazman]

i thought a banjo was paterson and he knew a horse
cheers..gaz.........

[w924]

"well said joelance. in recent years the wider racing and betting community has taken on the fast food rush-rush mentality of society in general . having been punting for over 30 years i have seen this lead to a sharp growth in an almost keno mentality in the way racing is promoted and hence also a rise in 'get rich sytems' ."


Surely, this is getting back to what punting was all about pre Don Scott?

In the Depression years, when racecourse attendances were at an all time high, few punters were using any methodical approach to their selection and betting methods. That is precisely what racing was all about to most of the public..an enjoyable form of gambling. What the current promotions do is focus on that "luck" factor..and the enjoyment of gambling...

I think this is a good thing, not a bad thing. It helps to spread the money over more runners in a race. Bookies have been long complaining that they often struggle to lay more than a few runners in a race...melb Cup day is about the closest they ever get to what it was like in the "good old days"......with lots of mug money going on all the runners...

No matter how many times I am told that its impossible to win long term because of the Tab and bookie percentages, I just dont buy it. Im not backing all the horses in the race..Im only interested in one runner..and if i think I am getting value I take it. Surely the percentages cannot be working against me in such a scenario..they have to be working for me. Why is it that we tend to begrudge the takeouts so much when every other enterprise has these takeouts going on? The sharemarket is one example...

There is another common myth out there..that all bookies make money over the long term...yes, it was a klicence to print money in days of old, but the reality today is that many lose..its not easy for them either.. They are often just punting on the other side of the fence...I say "Punting" because as I said earlier..they can no longer set a book and expect to lay most of the field....they can usually only work with a few runners...except melb Cup day etc.

One thing I am sure of..with punting..as in many other endeavours, the real way to make money is to not do what most others are doing.....you have to think a little differently ....

I love it that there are programmes out there to crunch TABS with dutch betting methods etc..it has to be good for everyone. I love it that there are now more win pools that I can swim in...and "best fluctuations" etc on offer..

I love it that the TAbs are doing their best to bring back the gambling on to the track....The pleasure punters are a key to profitablility. .

Just my thoughts...enjoyable thread..thanks for all inputs

[crash]

Well said w924. I agree.

Mentioning Don Scott makes me wonder just how good he would have been nowadays with the amount of info. we have a mouse click away ? I'm not sure of the % of race info available now Don Scott had available in his day, but he was probably winning with up to 50% less than we can access.

Maybe we have so much info. available, it's frying our brains ? It's well know psychology that there is an optimum amount of info for any given situation that the brain can process for a "best" decision. Any more info. and the decisions become progressively worse .

[joelance]

Hi Crash,

Don Scott said he collected too much information (which i agree with). He was trying to be a perfectionist.

Unfortunately in Don Scotts time he had to collect everything manually. Today with computers, its a click of the mouse. In those times Don Scott didnt have to be extremely accurate with his ratings because he had a unique logical way of rating horses with many of his top selections going off at huge odds. His big overlays would recoup large losing runs.

Imagine if Don Scott had never written or told anyone about his methods, we may not have had ratings as we know them today. Then imagine having not told anyone or written any books and that he was now in the information age. He then proceeds to program his methods and refine them. He could sit back and let his computer do the work (historical and future ratings) and just take the massive overlays and make all the money he wants.

I would predict (guess) that had Don Scott not told people about his methods or written any books we would still have ratings today. However, I believe they would be based on time ratings along the lines of the Beyer method (I am assuming that Beyer would of published). Just remember that Rem Plante had a method of comparing horse against horse along weight lines. He published his works prior to Don Scott's books. It wasnt until Don Scott published his books that weight ratings took off in a big way. Don took them to a new level where you no longer had to look for direct or indirect links between horses. He worked out the differences for each class of race and hence his ratings were born.

If only a forumite could come up with a new revolutionary way in the computer age to select horses in a unique way and keep it all to him or herself. As Pittsburg Phil said, "he or she can make all the money they want".

[KennyVictor]

If only a forumite could come up with a new revolutionary way in the computer age to select horses in a unique way and keep it all to him or herself. As Pittsburg Phil said, "he or she can make all the money they want".

If a forumite comes up with a new revolutionary way to select horses in this forum they'd do well to keep it to themselves. Look at Punter57 and a few others who think outside the square - the doommeisters and cynics give them all sorts of crap. :-)

KV

[w924]

Joelance and Crash, like Mcain..you've done it again. two excellent posts there .THanks so much for the input..Its so great to be able to communicate with other punters again. punting can be a lonely passion..and I think a forum such as this is a tremendous asset..another advance of technology that our legendary icons did not have at their fingertips.

Don Scott said he collected too much information (which i agree with). He was trying to be a perfectionist.

I dont like brain fry either, and that is why I take someone else's brain fried ratings and then apply the very simple rules I mentioned elswhere on this forum. For other form students, their kicks are derived from doing all the form themselves...and they enjoy this more than the punt itself..

"Mentioning Don Scott makes me wonder just how good he would have been nowadays with the amount of info. we have a mouse click away ? I'm not sure of the % of race info available now Don Scott had available in his day, but he was probably winning with up to 50% less than we can access. "

yes I agree...Today is a quantum leap from the days of Pittsburg Phil and our own Don Scott. As you say,,, we hgave it so easy with all the data on tap..no filing cabintes full of racecards for m for every horse..all hand written...We are so lucky in so many ways. Just think about the videos we have now to actually revsit a race as many times as we like...Too easy!

I have only returned to the punt here in NZ becasue technology allows me to do it. When I first moved here in '92 it was impossible for me continue the way I was. Nz racing sucked as far as I was concerned and the win pools were tiny..no decent ratings services..no bookies..no fixed odds etc and most importantly, no internet or access to form that would allow me to operate in Australia from here. I had to just walk away and decide it was the end of a chapter in my life...

It really is amazing how far things have moved.
"I would predict (guess) that had Don Scott not told people about his methods or written any books we would still have ratings today."

yes I think we would have it too..would have possibly arrived from overseas, but I think it would still be weight ratings..

Don Scotts book allowed anyone to very closely duplicate what he did and I know of one ratings man/bookmaker who did exactly that.he came in with no knowledge of racing whatsoever and had never bet in his life.

Rem Plante is another Australian who has been a huge contributor to Australian racing. No question. Those still finsh photos were so precious in the days before videos..

Weight is the criteria by which the horses are handicapped...and Ive never been a big fan of race times..Im not knocking time ratings..i just dont have a successful way of using them. Weight ratings arent perfect by any means...I loved the comment that someone posted here about the horse dropping 2kgs just prior to race merely because it had a bowel movement...lol

Anyone using my longshot method yesterday had just the one bet in Sydney using the victab ratings and the nsw tab win pools... Foxy Tyra which led all the way and won at $13.06 IASbet. It only qualified in the Q plan so went around for me with just the one unit..
Unusual to have just the one bet in Sydney on a Saturday but thats all it could come up with..

In melb Final Express was the winner , and it came up using either The tab vic ratings or the qld tab ratings..take your pick..
Thought Id start monitoring the QLD tab ratings to see how they fared. QLD ratings selections were:
QLD Cold Start x1 Won 11.20
laras Way x 4

Syd: hes so canny x2
Zingam X2

melb Future analysis x1
Speedy rossa x4 (2nd) paying as much as 8.00 place
Final Express x1 Won 8.10 nsw tab 8.55 iasbet
Free at last x 4

Ive been using the Melb tab ratings so my actual bets were a little different..(Final Express being the only selection which came up in both ratings.)
I did snare a winner in Syd and Vic. but Qld is still in drought..(Might be much better using the qld tab ratings there, esp as Coldstart duly lobbed)

I also had Caprizzi Strip which paid $7 plus for a place..not much use for me as I only win bet..but results like that do show me that my methods are reasonably consistent and the horses are giving me a good sight for the money...