NFL 2005/2006

[AssumeTheCrown]

The American Football season starts this week with alot of teams looking as though they are a big show. Here are my %chance ratings and comments for each teams chance of winning the Superbowl.

Indianapolis 13% - lost all 5 preseason games but have the best offence in the competition. Unfortunately they have no defence and that is what is needed to win the Superbowl.

New England 11% - Won 3 of the last 4 superbowls and have the best coach in the league. They have lost their offensive and defensive coordinators along with a couple of players. A great team but will be challenged this year.

Philadelphia 11% - Knocking on the door in recent years but keep getting knocked out in the NFC championship game. Have a good coach and quarter back but Tyrell Owens is the key. If he spits the dummy they are no good things whereas if he has a blinder of a year they are a chance.

Carolina 6% - Made the Superbowl final 2 years ago and just went down. Have a good defence and have picked up some good players. Finished year off well last season after suffering major injuries. Big show odds.

Atlanta 6% - Have the best rushing quarterback in the competition and have a well balanced team and good rookie coach. With the NFC not as strong as the AFC they are a good chance to get to the Superbowl.

Baltimore 5% - Dissapointing last year with their number 1 ranked defence. Their offence does not score enough but on paper they look like a well balanced side. Would need to improve but are a good chance.

Pittsburgh 5% - Big improver last year and their defence and quarterback are hot. Have lost a few players but will be better off with last years playoff experience. Good chance but are drawn in the tough AFC division.

Minnesota 5% - Have a great offence but have tried hard to improve their defence in the off season. Lost Randy Moss but have a good QB and always score alot. One of the better chances in the NFC.

New York Jets 5% - Big improver last year and were unlucky not to go further in the playoffs. Have worked hard on improving their defence and their QB is getting better. A big show this year.

Kansas City 3% - No defence

San Diego 3% - Not for me

Buffalo 3% - Expect a good year

Denver 2% - Undefeated preseason but dont like

Seattle 2% - Not with their coach

St Louis 2% - Terrible defence

Jacksonville 2% - Coach is a moron

Dallas 2% - Great coach and with new QB might go OK

Detroit 2% - Smart coach and big impovers this year i fancy

Cincinatti 2% - They are a good smokie at odds

Washington 1% - With an offence they would be good

Oakland 1% - Think they will have a good year

Green Bay 1% - QB has past his better days

New York Giants 1% - Dont rate them

Arizona 1% - Expect a good year from them

New Orleans 1% - Not a bad side but wont win the SB

Tampa Bay <1% - Not expected to have a good season

Houston <1% - A few years off being decent

Miami <1% - Will improve over next few years

Chicago <1% - Not the worst side in it

Tennessee <1% - Lost the plot in recent years

San Francisco <1% - Hopeless

Cleeveland <1% - Rebuilding a competitive side

[Sportz]

I've got the top 4 being:
Indianapolis, Carolina, New England, Philadelphia
(not necessarily in that order)

And a roughie:
Detroit

What do you think of those, ATC?

[Chuck]

I'm guessing ATC would be alright with this because that is more or less exactly what he said :D

[AssumeTheCrown]

They are my top 4 in ratings Sportz.
Even though Indy have been rated top I would be wary of their defence which is hopeless. If you look at history no superbowl winner has had a bad defence. I think that they are under the odds. New England are well coached and have the best game plan of any side. With the loss of coaching staff and players I think they will come back to the field a little. I rate them highly but would want better odds than currently available. Philadelphia will no doubt be up there again but will have some stiff competition in the NFC this year. They have a great team but TO needs to fire for them to win it. I think 6/1 is under the odds. Carolina are a HUGE chance. I have secured 25/1 about them winning and i still think the 16/1 or so on offer is great value. They have a very good coach, a great defence and have been in the superbowl recently. They were the form side in the latter half of last year after a horror run with injuries. Think they will win their division. As for Detroit i really rate them well. Steve Mariucchi is a good coach and they had a fair year last season. I expect them to win half of their games.

The teams I think represent good value at odds are -

Carolina, Minnesota, Baltimore, New York Jets, Buffalo

Small outside chances that are good value include -

Dallas, Detroit,Cincinatti,Oakland, Arizona


Good Luck with your bets

Cheers
ATC

[andrew057]

Ok, the first week of the NFL is pretty much pointless betting on. With no REAL form guide to go on it is extremely hard to pick any certanties (the pre-season is useless) With that being said my two picks of the week are as following.

Philadelphia Eagles win $1.85 vs. Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers -7 $1.91 vs. New Orleans Saints


* Prices from Centrebet
* Home teams in bold

[saratoga samchaz]

Hey there Assume, Why do you have to bust on my SF 49'ers as "hopeless" yet Cleveland is "rebuilding"?! LOL The Niners are brutal now and were when I was a kid growing up in the 70's. I've always been a fan and caught some flack then but also caught the glory years of Joe Montana--and with Notre Dame Fightin' Irish!!!! I agree with everyones picks but it is pretty obvious how it's gonna play out this year. Throw out the pre season like you said! Also, the Eagles did get to the big game last year and actually covered on a back door cover near the end. They keep inching their way to the title and if QB Donovan McNabb had played better they might have won, so don't discount them. TO has caused alot of dissension this summer, but it will straighten itself out when they start winning, it did in SF when he was acting up, but he did ultimately dismantle the team(idiot). Check out the thread about Pro Sports Betting for my views on this season if you want.

[karla909]

Hi "gridiron" fans


Glad to see a thread started on the NFL. Those of you who read the tennis threads will recall that my situations were based on NFL. Unfortunatly my situations usually pick low priced favs in tennis and thus not suitable for the users of this forum. Pity though as they do produce a profit.

I buy in my NFL tips and get the situations from a book written by one of the top USA tipsters. I have had 4 straight seasons of profits following him. It would be unethical to give his tips here but I would like to contribute to the forum. I bet on totals and the point spread and the following comments refer to point spread betting.

Remember that NFL with its salary cap is a "contrarion" sport to bet on. That is if Detroit beat Green Bay by 7 this week and ST Louis beat SF by 7, the worse thing you can do is assume if Detroit were meeting SF in the following week that Detroit would be a great bet on the spread. NFL doesn't seem to work that way. The teams are pretty even with some exceptions as noted by other forum contributors. Also, a study was done which indicates that 80% of all NFL games are decided by turnovers. The same study also indicated that it is almost impossible to predict turnovers.

It is my opinion as others that "defense" is the key component of finding the Super Bowl winner. Big offenses such as KC and Phily look good, but they seldom get their names on the trophy. I wait until the 4th or 5th round and look at the defensive stats and see if there is value in the best defensive sides.

For week1 I like
DETROIT -3 bt Green Bay
Baltimore +3 bt Phil Eagles

My teams are Green Bay and Buffalo and also like to see Oakland and the 49'ers do well.

Good punting for the season

Karla

[AssumeTheCrown]

G'Day Saratoga,

Sorry to put your 49ers down but i rate them as the 2nd worst team in the comp. Dont worry I follow Tampa Bay who are not much better. Being an Aussie it is hard to keep up with all the ins and outs of the NFL but i like this game better then Australian sports. All my comments are just based on an opinion and im sure you know more about it than i do but my ratings do have some meaning and are based on a statistical model. I do a lot of betting on NFL but more long term on the superbowl winner than individual matches. Agree with you Andrew about Carolina -7 in their first game against New Orleans. The panthers are keen to get off to a good start this year and they are my pick for the superbowl.

Cheers
ATC

[karla909]

Sorry

Correction to my picks
Baltimore -3 to beat Indy

[saratoga samchaz]

Ass-u-me, (just kidding!) Hey, your opinion on the NFL is just as valid as mine. That's what's great about gambling. Bet if ya feel so strong, is what I always say. I'm glad to see so many Aussies playing the NFL. It is the most wagered on sport in the US by far. It's funny to hear people say, you bet hockey? or you bet baseball? What's the difference!!!! I try to find the best values and easiest spots. Historically, the NFL is very hard to win at long term but it seems like alot of Aussies bet the money line, is this true? This may be the better play long term as teams that cover usually win outright anyway. I was kidding about the Niners. I bust on em now too, but if it weren't for that TO breaking the team apart we might be alright there. He said Quarter Back Jeff Garcia(now with Detroit) likes men. When in fact, it's pretty widely ASS-U-MED that TO likes the guys. Alot of people in Philly don't know that, but being a Niners fan it was OUT there along time ago.I started thinking about the league this year and believe the Oakland Raiders have a legitimate shot of getting there this year. They got WR Randy Moss in the off season and he'll be able to do any kind of antics he wants on that team as long as they JUST WIN BABY! (that was there slogan in the 70's). They were getting a little old and started to young up. They also have Kerry Collins who has been to the big game and has veteran capabilities although he is by no means a super star. Plus he likes beer! Come to think of it, NFL QB's seem to have alot of substance abuse probs. Must be the pressure. Brett Favre (gotta love him now that the Niners suck) had the painkiller thing and former 1st pick overall Todd Marinovich(QB) somehow managed to get kicked off the bad boy Oakland Raiders for smokin' pot. How's ganja man Randy Moss gonna make it then? Oh yeah Ricky Williams is back in the league after taking last year off to live in a tent (IN AUSTRALIA I THINK!!!!) and smoke up and read a bunch of books. He said he'd rather do that than play football.

[Desi]

Hey guys, what happened to my beloved Tampa Bay Buccs? Followed them since 78 liked the Salmon bros...not sure what happened after their stint at the SBowl...took a liking to NFL after reading about the real mean machine with Mean Joe Greene, Randy White and cant remember the others in the Great Pittsburgh Steelers (now there was a team)...was an Earl Campbell and Franco Harris fan in the 70's for running backs and later followed the great Montana...Marino and Favre...

Love the game and it looks like theres some opportunities to wager and win too lol! Good luck for the season!:)

[saratoga samchaz]

Good oppurtunities to Wager AND win too. LOL!!!! Good one Desi ya old man. Your showing your age just like me. I hated the Steelers back then because they always won!!! They were great though and now I like that team alot. Again Mr. Irony over here in the states has something, Randy White (the manster) of the Dallas Cowboys is from, you guessed it, little old Delaware (second smallest state in the US). Heck, we're only about 100 miles long and 15 wide at the top and 25 at the bottom. Very small but we got heart! Just look at all the talent that comes out of here. Randy White, Rich Gannon, Anthony Anderson (of your Pittsburgh Team) - my fat buddy Duke who works at Delaware Park used to be faster than him when they both played at Temple-now he ways 300 lbs. His real name is Delmar. The Niners have a kid from Newark High named Kwajme or something like that who is pretty good too. See, we're like the Rodney Dangerfield of states and get busted on all the time, even though Rhode Island is smaller. How many athletes do they have?????????????

[saratoga samchaz]

Desi I also have to respect your loyalty to the Bucs as they really stunk it up for a long time. I can only think of one team who was ever that bad and I've always been loyal to them. I loved John Brodie and Gene Washington and OJ Simpson for that matter ( hey, he might have been the best running back ever so ya can't deny him that, just throw him in jail). That's when the league was great!!!! Steve Spurrier used to QB the Niners after Brodie and now I can't stand him. TB lost the man, John Gruden. He was the reason for their success. THe only coach in the league with guts enough to tell some cry baby superstar (Keyshawn Johnson) to pound sand, we don't need you. Gruden really called his bluff. Keyshawn yeah or neah Des?

[saratoga samchaz]

NFL Week one Game one LOST ONE! The Oakland Raider's, misled by QB Kerry Collins' fumble on his own 8 yd line, along with WR Randy Moss' three dropped passes that led to the Raiders having to punt, and usually reliable Field Goal Kicker and date rape drug mixer, Sebastian Janikowski missing a common 39 yard field goal helped the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (- 7-= -7 1/2 pts.) win and cover the spread 30-20 in the NFL's season opening game at Foxboro Stadium (or whatever corporation is calling the stadium their's now) in Foxboro, Massachusetts outside Boston. This was NE's 20th straight win at home and the Raider's 10th season opening loss in the last 11 years.

NE was led by QB TOM BRADY's usual mistake-free game and the same for the rest of the Patriots' team as well.

I still feel I had the right side in this game and am not surprised I took a bad beat here. It happened in the playoffs two years ago as well but this time the Raiders had no referee's to blame. Coach Norv Turner will whip this rag tag bunch of misfits into a lean and mean fighting machine by season's half point. Beware the line value though as OAK is somewhat a public team becaause of their bad boy attitude. Squeaky clean Tom Brady and the NE PATS are definitely the class of the AFC and should be tough to beat outright, but if they get points once this season I would be surprised. They have a tough couple of weeks ahead of them with road games at Carolina, Pittsburgh, Atlanta,and Denver while playing at home only one more time (San Diego on October 2) before late OCT! Look to play against them in these upcoming weeks. They will make or break their season in this scheduling fluke--that gives them a huge advantage in the frozen weather of NE in late NOV and DEC. Wonder who the NFL is routing for?????

[karla909]

Isn't it funny, Saratoga how one's bet can determine how one views an outcome. Lucky me, was on New England (-7.5) and I can't agree that the Oakland loss was a "bad beat". It could be argued over a friendly (and I stress friendly) beer that the difference was a missed 39 yard field goal that would have gotten you the smiles instead of me. However NE did miss a point-after which would have made the difference 8 points. Also the last 6 pointer was a bit of a gift as the Pats were into time management and not worried about giving up a TD. If you take away the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes it was 30-7 being Oakland only had 1 73 yard score. DEpends which side of the field you are on.


Arguing over spilt milk is good over the beer, but what I really like about your post is your indication of the future for these 2 teams. Written them down in the little black book as I think you are spot on. Oakland looked terrific in that first drive and a couple of held catches could have really opened up the running game for them. I don't think it will be too long before they catch a weak defensive by surprise and score big time. Their defense did look vulnerable but the 2nd half as you point out could have gone in a different direction if not Collins made the turnover. Oaklnd receiving points could be good. The stats show total yards was Oak 351 to NE 379, so the stats were very close and you are right, the turnover made all the difference to the momentum of the match.

The Pats looked very good and to my mind have plenty of improvement in them. But, as you say a tough schedule coming up and if the line makers follow the press, we may see 12 point spreads which are very difficult for a road team to cover.

Enjoyed your write-up and hope you have time to give us more. I think you are in the USA so you may be interested to know that down here we get the Sunday Night and Monday night games on ESPN pacific and Fox does 1 game either live or a replay on our Monday morning. After the NRL and AFL seasons are over in November they will show two. This week we are getting Detroit and the Packers. Biggest trouble is its hard to get real excited as 6 am is too early for having that beer.

[saratoga samchaz]

Hey Karla! You're right about who you have swaying your opinion, but I do usually remain objective in these matters. I wouldn't call the OAK loss a real bad beat, but I just wanted to stress the game was a lot closer than the final indicates. The FG really wasn't the determining factor either like you said, but if Oak makes a few less mistakes the game changes. i didn't play them very heavy,even though I did love 'em. I'm glad you won, too. NE schedule is strange but it could really help them in the cold december conference games.


I figured that you would get the night games down under, but I thought they would start at like 10 am or 11 am (14 hour diff???) How many time zones between Mel and Perth??? and how many hours???

[saratoga samchaz]

6 am is too LATE for having that beer!!! LOL

[karla909]

12 noon in New York is 2 am on east coast of OZ and 11 pm in perth.


So det/gb kicks off at 6 am, just in time for breakfast.

you should be in bed now, california dreamin'

[andrew057]

Good analysis by both of you, im so glad i found a place were i can discuss betting and more in general NFL. Oak's secondary worries me a bit, but pretty impressive performances by both teams.

Im going to try and get up for the packers game but i dont know if im that enthusiastic this early into the season.

Rams -5.5 is a steal against the horrible niners, i expect them to win no more than 4 games this season.

[saratoga samchaz]

Darn Andrew! Does everybody in OZ have to bust on my once proud 49'ers?!?!?!
LOL!!!!! They are terrible but those kind of teams play loose and sometimes are quite overvalued due to a favorite betting public, so tread carefully when giving points to bad teams. I made a living for 20 years with those kind of players. But you are probably right in this one. OAKLAND is not as good as I initally felt, but they still are eligible to improve and may get some decent prices. So the game you get on Monday morning is actually our 4 PM Eastern game. I thought they would show the Sunday night game as it would be on at 10 AM for E. OZ. LAte enought to quaff a few brewskis before heading into work. FAAHSTERS. Austrialian for breakfast! LOL

[AssumeTheCrown]

My bets for Week 1 of the NFL-

Detroit -3 @ 1.91 is my best bet

I have also had small wagers on the following -

New York Giants @ 1.65
Denver @ 1.53
Buffalo @ 1.45
Seattle +3 @ 1.93


Tough opening round to start proceedings.
Good Luck with your bets.

Cheers
ATC

[andrew057]

I had small bets on the Rams and Carolina, both lost :( Dont like to bet big in the opening weeks though. Im considering putting a unit on the eagles tomorrow.

BTW SS, well done to the niners, they completely surprised me, and they did it all without Eric Johnson.

[saratoga samchaz]

Thanks Andrew. I bet them small as I really didn't like too much in our 4 o'clock games. I did like the KC chiefs alot but didn't play them. i touted four games on the horse board but luckily only bet the 2 winners from there! I didn't want to bet 4 games, too much vig. So I ended up 3-0 on real small bets, but that helps for the Oakland debacle THursday, E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES! I can't stand em! Birds vs Birds on monday night football!!!! I have to look it over today to see who I like. ALL day long they'll talk about it on our Philly sports station WIP 610 AM. Listen on the net if you want to hear some real opinionated idiots! ONly in Philly! YO ADRIAN!!!!!!!!!!

[andrew057]

Thanks Andrew. I bet them small as I really didn't like too much in our 4 o'clock games. I did like the KC chiefs alot but didn't play them. i touted four games on the horse board but luckily only bet the 2 winners from there! I didn't want to bet 4 games, too much vig. So I ended up 3-0 on real small bets, but that helps for the Oakland debacle THursday, E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES! I can't stand em! Birds vs Birds on monday night football!!!! I have to look it over today to see who I like. ALL day long they'll talk about it on our Philly sports station WIP 610 AM. Listen on the net if you want to hear some real opinionated idiots! ONly in Philly! YO ADRIAN!!!!!!!!!!
LMAO :D

Congrats on your wins. Whats your opinion of the Monday night game? I havent seen much of the falcons or eagles this preseason. Wagering anything?

[saratoga samchaz]

Sorry Andrew, I just got in. I bet the Falcons at +2 1/2. they look good so far. the eagles missed a fiel goal and the falcons threw an interception deep in the philly zone. McNabb took a huge hit and was a bit shaken up. looks like an under game at 0-0 half way through the 1st quarter. Get a second half play on Atlanta because if the Eagles get frustrated, which it looks like will happen, they will implode!

[saratoga samchaz]

I'm heading up to the South Philly Turf Club to route against the Eagles! This could be ugly.

[saratoga samchaz]

TOUCHDOWN ATLANTA. Michael Vick ran one in from 10 yards out!! They are gonna kill the Eagles.

[andrew057]

Well Falcons won 14-10, nice game. I didnt end up betting on the game, decided to cut my losses from the Sunday games.

[thefan]

Assumethecorwn,i assume you know your NFL? Is this your speciality? Ive never backed NFL before,but might give it a try

[AssumeTheCrown]

Hi Thefan,

I do the majority of my sportsbetting on the NFL and have made some handsome returns in the past. Coming from Australia I dont know a heap about the game compared to our American friends on this forum (saratoga) but i do follow it big time. I have used a statistical model in the past to predict season and match outcomes with great success. I will post some results from my analysis from time to time to share with others. The model is more accurate later on in the season when it has more data to take into account so i would be wary of its predictions this early in the season.

Cheers
ATC

[thefan]

Yes ATC,I think ive seen you around in other forums 'punting ace' perhaps. Hope to learn something from you this NFL season since our footy season is nearly over. Good luck and I hope to get a few tips off ya.

[karla909]

Not giving any tips at this point but lookng at the early lines, I wonder if there is any opinions.

My thoughts

Green Bay -6.5. After scoring only 3 points and showing nothing it is hard to see how the Pack can give anybody 6.5.

Philly -13.5 Wow, 13.5 loser against a winner. Philadelphia needs to do everything right and not create any turnovers. think its too early in the season for that kind of line?

Det -2.5 Chicago doesn't seem to have an offense and the way DEtroit shut down GB running game may point to a Detroit win.

STL- Arizona - This is the Fox TV game. ST Louis came back strong and Arizona got beat by 20+ . ST Louis could be a good pick.

NY Giants -3 New Orleans were aided by a extra terrestial forces to beat Carolina. Doubt if that will happen again.

[karla909]

I wouldn't follow my tips for big money but I would like to see some NFL activity so I will offer my tips on week 2.

Week1 1-1

Miami +6 bt NY Jets. - the word is that Miami is better than first thought and their win against Denver had merit. These AFC contests can sometimes be very defense. The 6 points for Miami looks generous.

Detroit -1 bt Chicago - Chicago's offensive stats looked terrible against a not so good Washington side. They got their only TD from a turnover. Detroit didn't look that great either but at least scored. The Lions won both their games over the Bears last year and I think they can do it again.

NY Giants -3 bt New Orleans The Giants were all over Arizona last week while NO got a lucky win over Carolina. I doubt that NY will cough up the ball 4 times like Carolina did. If the turnovers are equal and the Saints have come down off their Katrina high, the Giants should get the spread at home.

St Louis +1 bt Arizona St Louis only got going in the 2nd half against SF and almost pulled it off while Arizona looked pretty bad against NY Giants. The Rams have a pretty lousy road record but Arizona sems to love paying big money for over the hill players. I think their purchase of Kurt Warner is another mistake and if anyone should know how to defend against Warner it should be the Rams. If St Louis comes to play, then they should win.

[mad]

Just for fun i might have a small go at the Home-Dogs (with the points) this weekend.
1. +3.5 Tennessee $1.962
2. +4.5 Houston $1.990
3. +1 Chicago $2.01
4. +3 Carolina $1.935

I have very little knowledge of the NFL, but let's see how we go.
Good Luck

[AssumeTheCrown]

Agree with most of your thoughts for Week 2 Karla.
My bets for this week are -

Detroit @ 1.91 (best bet)
San Diego @ 2.30
Tampa Bay @ 1.77


Good Luck with your bets

Cheers
ATC

[saratoga samchaz]

Hey everybody, Good luck in week 2. I haven't had a chance to do uch handicapping this week. As we speak the Eagles just scored a TD one minute into the game against my 49'ers. I'm glad i didn't go to that game.

[saratoga samchaz]

ATC, I'm very interested in your system's results, even early on. Post the stats as soon as you have any time, that way we can jump on board when it looks to get rolling big time. I have a nice system/trend that used to be AWESOME in it's results but had slowed down a little as of 2 years ago. I didn't follow it last year, but I am thinking about jumping back on it. It involves teams playing 3 games (OR MORE--very rare) in a row against their own division and their next game out of division. I hate to say it, but I can't remember whether you play against or with this team?!!? I will dig it up and post the games that apply. Obviously, there aren't any yet in week 2.

ATC and others, Don't knock your skill in handicapping the NFL. From what I've read here, you are as astute as most of the regular ninnies in the US that used to provide me with a nice living. Keep reading as much as you can and asking questions about things you don't understand and you will continue with that edge. That's what i do with the Aussie horse racing.

Karla: I hope you didn't play against those Eagles (28-0 early 2nd Q!!! UGH!)


My 4:00 o'clock plays:

Under St. L/Ariz***
Under Cle/GB***
Cle+6 *
Under KC/Oak**night
Oak+1*night

FYI----There are 2 Monday night football games this week(NY Giants vs. NO Saints 7:30 + Wash vs Dallas 9:00)

[mad]

Well as a wise man once said...

"Even the sun shines on a dogs ass every now and again"

3 from 4 for Home Dog system this week, a fluke perhaps but i'll take it nontheless. Awesome displays by the Eagles, Pittsburgh and Carolina. I know it's early but the Steelers, based on current form, would have to be some chance to go all the way this year.

[Sportz]

Hey, who's using my good old home dogs system??? :D

[mad]

Yes, i'll admit i certainly didn't formulate the idea.

Just stole it from ya Sportz, sorry and thanks. Hope to follow it in the NFL, went well this weekend.

[andrew057]

Giants should beat NO pretty easily and I think washington are struggling way ot much on offense so take the cowboys there.

[Sportz]

Just stole it from ya Sportz, sorry and thanks. Hope to follow it in the NFL, went well this weekend.

That's okay. :)

Not sure how it will go on NFL. Even though the home-dog system is a very basic plan, I still like to know a fair bit about the teams to decide how I'm going to bet. And I'm the first to admit my knowledge of NFL is nowhere near as good as AFL, NRL, S12 etc.

[mad]

Thanks Sportz,
The best systems are the simplest. I will use it wisely!
Just looking at some simple stats, teams travelling often struggle. Therefore unless a complete mis-match (top vs bottom or team in red hot form) i reckon the home-dog system must be as good as any other. Only exception this weekend were the Steelers who are looking a very good side this year and at the moment are playing like it.

Hi Andrew,
Not too sure about Saints - Giants.
Might have a little dabble on the Giants purely because they are playing at home.

[saratoga samchaz]

The home dog system is as strong as any, but like Sportz said, only after looking at form. The Home Dog on Monday NIght Football is one of the strongest trends in the NFL (at least it used to be, now everyone is on it and that is probably reflected in the value). Washington on the road for me tonight. Another "trend" I like to play against is when teams honor a former star player or coach at halftime (like tonight for Cowboys-Troy Aikman and Tony Dorsett). You would think it would be just the opposite, but it's not.

[mad]

Saratoga,

What do you think of the varying displays of the top ranked teams at the weekend, the Patriots, Carolina, Steelers, Colts etc.

Problem with form based systems this early in the season is that their is very little to go on. Therefore sticking with the home teams in a selective manner is as good as any method i know.

[mad]

Watching Washington and Cowboys at moment.

Unless Washington can provide some protection for their QB they gonna be in big trouble this year.

The honouring of stars is a strange one. I suppose it can sometimes distract the players, however in tonights game doesn't look to be a problem so far, the Cowboys looking to good for Washington.

[mad]

Good calls Andrew and Saratoga.

Boy that was a close one, didn't see Washington winning in 1st half.

[karla909]

Phew, If I ever say that I'm unlucky remind me of that Monday game. I was on the Redskins with 6 start and I agree with you Mad it was looking hopeless. Washington played 58 offensive plays of nothing and 2 good ones. Miracles happen. The Dallas supporters giving 5.5 can certainly call it a very bad beat.

Good picking MAD. I'll look up last year and see how home dogs prevailed.

That is an interestng theory SS. Not much good to us as there is very little info for us to go on. Keep us informed please.

Went 2-2 on my picks here and now 3-3. The service went 5-4 so a small miraculous profit for the weekend. Was down 1-4 after losing on Miami, Detroit, Atlanta and Atlanta/Sea overs and winning on Carolina. Came back from the dead when GB and Clev had their last minute shootout to get the over, and had NY Giants and the under and the Washington miracle. Very fortunate.

Notes on games excluding today.

Carolina -NE. New england had only 39 yards rushing and now only 112 in 2 games. They will be in trouble without the running game.

Detroit - Chicago 5 turnovers and lots of panic for Detroit. Chicago numbers not as impressive as the score. Don't get carried away with the Bears form.

Minnesota - Cinci. Min had 7 turnovers (t/o). Now 12 for year. Mike Tice to be first coach fired is my pick. Cinci had 504 yards total offense. Averaging 6.3 yards per play in first 2 games which is fantastic for any team but amazing for the Bungles.

Houston - Pitt. Pittsburgh sacked the Houston qb 8 times. Now the Houston QB has been sacked 13 times. No front line protection is looking bad for them. Next week we can judge how good the Steelers are as they are up against NE

Balt - Tenn Baltimore only had 14 yds rushing.

SF - Phil. SF looks very bad as they have only rushed for 92 yards in 2 games and allowed an average of 380 passing. The Eagles have only allowed an average of 101 passing in their 2.

Jax - Indy Indy sacked Jacksonville qb 6 times. The Jax and the under may be the way to go this year. I think they are a good team but remember they were a very lucky side last year.

Buffalo - TB . The bucs look pretty good defensivly in allowing my Bills only 47 yards rushing and 73 yards total in 2 games.

Stl - Ari - Both teams looked bad on T.V. STL qb now sacked 12 times in 2 games. They must shore that up to complete to the star receivers. Arizona has no good plays in red zone and Kurt can't scramble any more.

ATL - SEA Michael Vick isn't living up to his billing completing an average of 11.5 passes for 113 yards. Running the qb all year only leads to an injury. Seattle putting up big offensive numbers so far.

KC - Oak . KC is way under the totals and seem to like running a lot. If the totals stay high they may be a good bet on the under for another game or two.

Clev - GB Brett is making too many errors and GB are going nowhere. Time to change qb's but they won't. Bet against GB if giving anybody more than 3. Clevland has a very bad pass defensive giving up 608 yards in first 2 games.

Good punting and hope we are all this lucky every week.

[saratoga samchaz]

Mad, I gotta agree about the early season form being hard to figure, but that's when you can jump on some value if you form the right opinions about teams. It's more a "trust your gut" thing than anything, but if you are right, you can ride out some nice wins.

The "honoring stars... system" is tough to follow as it is usually not announced nationally what the team's intentions are, but it usually plays out for the visitor. If you can get on-line to a team's website and do some research, maybe you can find out what they are doing. Sometimes it is very applicable and sometimes not. it is very much an intangible but the closer the relation of the honoree to the players on the field, the better for the other team. the home team is distracted and can start to "put things in perspective" if the ceremony regards a sick or deceased player or other such bad things. I don't have any stats on this, but I've read about this system in a lot of publications. I have a book describing it. I'll try to dig it up.

Karla, good job on all those observations. it really sums up alot of teams in a nutshell.

[saratoga samchaz]

Washington is lucky, eh!!!!!! Mad, NE is showing they are human, Pitt + Carolina are looking good. Philly looks really tough. SF is brutal and could be a constant play against, but I can't give that many poinits. Oak may be in good form now, so keep an eye out. I would definitely play against NE for the next few road games, as they are in tough

[mad]

Agree Saratoga - particularly with the Raiders assessment. I watched that game and thought it pretty even steven, the raiders will need some time to gel and the chiefs are playing good football. However in saying that Randy Moss ran all night and the QB failed to see him, couple that with the other wide receiver Porter and their running back (forget name) and i think they will go well enough this season. Needs time.

As for the redskins they were woeful in the first half - how many times their QB get sacked?

[mad]

Just throwing my eye over this weekends games and i spy the Titans vs Rams. Titans with the points +6.5 for me or am i missing something? Don't see a big difference between these two considering the Titans are on the road.
Would love to get +7.5 so i'll keep an eye out for any line movements but it may be wishful thinking.

Also throw in the Bengals to cover -3 on the road at Chicago. Bengals in red hot form, Chicago only so-so.

New Orleans over Minnesota, Saints had their chances last wekend against the Giants but failed to capitalise. Expect them to be to good for the Vikings. Will take +4.5 points just in case

[mad]

Thinking the Eagles at home, not happy with -7.5 points though as Oakland aren't that bad a team and could make a game of it. Any thoughts??


Last but by no way least, after all my talk i am going with the Steelers to win at home and cover the spread -3. Hope i am right and the Steelers get up.

Good luck to all

[karla909]

Hi Mad

I won't be betting it, but I think Philly will cream Oakland because Oaklands weakest part is their pass defense which Manning should pick apart. 8 points is a lot on the road which means I will give it a miss.

My picks for week3 (3-3 so far)

Chicago +3 bt Cinci -3
Chicago has a good defense and their loss to Wash wasn't as bad as first thought. Cinci has been blessed with 2 weak passing defenses and 9 turnovers. Maybe I am old fashioned but early season predictions favouring Cinci generally fade and I think Chicago will slow them down. Bears at home receiving points looks good.

New Orleans +3.5 bt Minnesota -3.5
Info out of Minnesota is all bad with more offensive injuries. The Saints were put into a bad "head space" with USA media attention and gave up 5 t/o's in their loss to NY Giants. Based on a win over Carolina, who looked good last week and good offensive numbers, against a team that can't run and can't defend and whose best receiver is out and receiving points looks good.

Carolina -3 bt Miami
Carolina just beat the superbowl winners and are labelled as contenders against a Miami team that was picked for the wooden spoon. Carolina will show their class and just cover against a Miami team that may be over achieving.

KC +3 bt Denver
On the figures the KC offense is playing well while the Denver defense hasn't. The KC defense is only average but much better than last year. I really like the way the Chiefs have been rushing which will lay the foundation for their passing game and keep Denvers good offense of the field. Denver was lucky to steal a win last week and KC are outscoring their opposition 50-24. KC doesn't have a good record in Denver but I think they have the better team this year. A 2-0 team getting points is good.

[saratoga samchaz]

Great analysis, Karla. If only some of our sports handicappers could be as logical as you, I would listen more! LOL! I agree that the Philly line is high, but I can't be overly confident in Oakland, although that would be my small lean.

Here are my EARLY picks: Best Bets (Pitt, SF, Und Philly)

Pitt -3 (I've got to keep playing against NE on this early harsh schedule)

SF +6 1/2 (I'd love to get 7 or more here, but I think SF will hang in there after last week's debacle)

Cinn -3 (I've just got a feeling the public is going to jump on the Bears and I love to play contrarian)

GB +3 1/2 (This once proud organization still has some fight left, especially at home as a dog)

Under 46 Phl/Oak (like to see a chess match type game here, as the two teams are unfamiliar with each other)

Under 47 Ind/Cle (Tough to play the under with Indy, but I like this side small)

[saratoga samchaz]

Hey Mad, You're gettng your wish as St. L is now up to 7 but I'm sure you've already made your play. That time diff is a pain. I just read an analysis on the game and St. L is playing on Artificial turf for the first time this season. Tenn is 2-10 ATS on art Turf and off the grudge match w/ Balt. St L is tough at home, but I agree with you're take on the spread looking high. I'm staying away from this one. Good luck.

Karla, the Alamo Dome ini San Antonio has Artificial turf and the LSU Tiger stadium in Baton Rouge is natural grass. I am 99% sure of these but I haven't
verified it. The Philly line is up to 9 right now.

Sticking with my earlier plays, but a little scared of the Pitt play.

SF +6- ***
Und 46 Phl/Oak ***
Pitt -3 **
Und 47 Ind/Cle **
GB +3- **
Cinn -3 *1/2


Good Luck everyone in Week 3.

[karla909]

Thanks for that info SS.


My beer is filled with tears. Very very bad day. Just shows that 2 weeks of stats leads to mis judgements. Interceptions Carolina 2 minutes to go and Chicago 5 and New Orleans 2 plus the opening fumble and 2 weeks winnings is now else where.

Desperate now for KC to win a low scoring contest tomorrow.

[mad]

Good weekend of footy there Ladies and Gents, some nice calls there Saratoga.

What happened to my Steelers? Flippin' Brady and field goals will be the death of me! Didn't see the game unfortunately but Roethlisberger's stats 12/28 216 don't look all that flash. Although the underdog always seems to ruin the winning runs of the opposing team in this series, coupled with the fact the Pats would want to bounce back after last week - Always easy to pick them afterwards though.

Vikings???????? Three touchdowns from Culpepper and some rookie?????? Didn't see that one coming, although Saints third week on the road. I think i read too much into last weeks game against the Giants. Brooks 12/32 didn't help i suppose.

Oakland were unlucky, i think they are a better team than 0-3. Probably just the sort of game they needed to help them gel, expect some wins from this team soon.

Bengals in good form, thanks Karla for your accurate description of Bears performance to date. Spot on the money, Bengals 3-0 set themselves up very nicely for the season now.

Just finished watching Giants vs Chargers. Giants woeful defence, absolutely no answer for LT. Impressed with Manning, the boy can play however not sure if his receivers make him look good or the other way round. With little running game i think they will be a risky proposition to back this year particularly against good passing defences. As for Chargers just saw their schedule for next month or so, thought New England had a tough schedule, have a look at what the Chargers have got. They really needed to be 3-0 at this stage or at least 2-1, think it will be tough for them now but stranger things have happened so i guess we'll have to wait and see. Wonder how they would go if you could shut down LT.

All in all an average week for me. Decided to go with some road teams with points this time, shoulda stuck with the tried and true Home-Dogs with Miami, Packers and 9'ers all getting up with the points. Some close ones but thems the breaks. Bring on next week.

[mad]

Struggling at the moment with the last game of the round.

Denver shut down San Diego's running game last week, albeit mostly LT. I didn't see the game so i am just going on stats there. Denver don't seem to have much of a running game, at least not one that will be dominant. That leaves a scenario whereby the Chiefs are the more balanced side rushing and passing but are very susceptible to a passing game as witnessed against Oakland. Oakland kept ignoring an open Moss all night! So the question is, How good is the Denver passing game? Good enough at home i wonder. Any suggestions?

Me thinks No is the answer. Oakland are a good side, better than the Broncos. Either way i don't see the Broncos dominating, so therefore a close game is likely given that the Broncos are playing at home - worst case. So given that the Chiefs are the more balanced, if not better team, taking the Chiefs with the points is the way to go.

Ok, I'm with you Karla - best of luck to us.

[mad]

Struggling at the moment with the last game of the round.

Denver shut down San Diego's running game last week, albeit mostly LT. I didn't see the game so i am just going on stats there. Denver don't seem to have much of a running game, at least not one that will be dominant. That leaves a scenario whereby the Chiefs are the more balanced side rushing and passing but are very susceptible to a passing game as witnessed against Oakland. Oakland kept ignoring an open Moss all night! So the question is, How good is the Denver passing game? Good enough at home i wonder. Any suggestions?

Me thinks No is the answer. Oakland are a good side, better than the Broncos. Either way i don't see the Broncos dominating, so therefore a close game is likely given that the Broncos are playing at home - worst case. So given that the Chiefs are the more balanced, if not better team, taking the Chiefs with the points is the way to go.

Ok, I'm with you Karla - best of luck to us.
That was a good call.

[saratoga samchaz]

Thanks Mad. I've gotten some good luck as of late. It's about time! LOL! Rothes.... did have a terrible game, but they just barely lost, so be positive. I think NE is a little weaker than last year and Pitt is on the upswing. That game did scare me when I really started to think hard about it, but I still thought that the Steelers were the side. My 49'ers are suddenly 2-1 against the spread and play St. Louis agaain this weekend at Mexico City. I'll have to see if it's a natural grass surface. I love the Niner's if it is. Week 4 lies ahead.

[mad]

Hey Toga,

Funny old weekend for me, some good picks and some silly ones. Hey but that's the cookie crumblin and all that. Was a great weekend footy wise, woulda' loved to see the Steelers vs Pats game but of course we didn't get it over here. Bengals are going well, Chargers snapped out of their slump, home dogs continuing on a roll and the season has just begun.

Today I noticed the early lines for next week and there are some interesting selections to be made. Oakland -3 at home vs Dallas, Atlanta -5.5 vs Minnesota and the Chargers +5 vs the Pats. Of course if ever the Bengals were going to thump someone at home it would be this week against Houston. Titans at home +6.5 vs the Colts has also grabbed my attention. Colts defence is flying but the offence is only firing on three cylinders. Risky, you never know if they will fire up but i might look into this one a bit more.

Before i go i must mention SBR, American based Mr mgmt so take it easy Moderator, but they have a new forum full of NFL discussion etc and a competion running at the moment called, wait for it:
Beat the P-r-i-c-k, without the hyphens of course, for NFL tipping. Worth a look.

[karla909]

Well guys, I vote myself "****er" of the week after going 0-4 with my picks. Some very strange turn arounds, especially on defense. What really got me in the 3 TV games was that my bets KC, NO and NYG all looked like they showed up for a practice. The other sides were fired up and ready to play. In all 3 I was gone in the first 5 minutes. Very depressing weekend but as MAD has said, "bring on next week".

Quick notes - the Jets have lost their qb and Vinny is back. bye bye Jets. Fox TV games are a double header STL-NYG and Dallas-Oak. Home field advantage is sure looking big this year. The teams that outrushed the other won 11 of the 14 games. Pit-Ne were tied at 79 each. SF lost and Cinci won with the 5 interceptions.

Notes from games
Oak-phil - Oakland ran 22 times for +21 yards. Looks like its live or die with the pass for them. Phil won dispite losing two turnovers. Philly run defense looks good giving only 80 yds in last 2 games.

Tenn - Stl - even stats

Cinci - Chi - 5 interceptions for Cinci. Now have +14 t/o rate and 18 in 3 games. Can they win without that? Chicago defense still putting up a good performance.

NO-Min - 4 t/o against the Saints. Minnesota allowed 7 sacks . Hard to rate NO because of all the emotional stuff. The Vikings sure were fired up but still a mediocre lot.

Car-Mia - Carolina had a chance to tie it but got intercepted in the last minute. Carolina only had 61 yds rushing. Miami had +2 t/o. Miami now 43-8 at home in August/sept. Looks like their offensive strength is rushing and their overall strength is defense.

Jax-NYJ -Ny Jets lost their qb and only had 168 yds total offense. Jax and Cinci only teams at 3-0 on spread.

Cle- Indy - Indy defense won again and had 4 more sacks.Indy offense put up their best numbers of the year but against a very bad Clevland defense. Indy hasn't allowed a sack this year so it's a mystery to me why they can't score.

TB-GB Gb played better but gave TB 3 interceptions. Missed conversion was the difference. TB had 156 yds rushing. My figures have the Bucs as #1 defensive team

Sea-ARi. Arizona still can't convert their chances into TD's. 12 points all on field goals. Seattle put up big offensive numbers again. 163 yds rushing. 2 t/o also helped

NE-Pitt. The numbers seem to indicate that the Pat's outplayed Pitt by much more than the score 425 yds to 269 total offense. Pitt got 2 more t/o's and very strange for them to lose with a + t/o. NE had 346 yds passing but still not rushing real well.

Dall - SF The stats look as even as the scoreline

Atl-Buff Very strange game according to the stats. Must have been brutal in the trenches. ATlanta rushed for 236 and passed for 167 while the Bills rushed for 172 and wait for it - passed for 36. Atlanta also had 4 sacks. Not very often that you get rushing at twice the rate of passing. Wasn't snowing was it?

NYG - SD. I watched this game. Going into it the Giants had just about the best rush defense. The Chargers just charged right through them for 268 yards. Tomlinson was unstoppable. The Giants passe for 338 yds which made the stats look close butttt.

KC-Denv Same story here as the NYG-SD game. Denver just ran straight through the Chiefs line for 221 yds

[mad]

Thanks for the synopsis Karla, i'd be lost without it. Don't get enough games on TV, might look into getting one of those massive satellite dishes that picks up every station known to mankind.

Anyway, was looking at betting markets and see Jacksonville opened at -3, quickly out to -4. Must have been some big money coming in at -3. Must admit at -4 still looks and attrctive proposition at home vs the Broncos. Might be another one worthy of some investigation. Also Seattle +2 on the road to Washington is intiguing, however i have no basis for saying that other than i don't rate Washington very highly.

[mad]

How did i miss this one...LOL.

Eagles +2 on the road to Chiefs. Opened at +3, some money came for it i assume after the abismal performance of KC last week.

[karla909]

Hi Mad

The line on Philly maybe because McNab (QB) was listed as doubtful. I heard now (11 am Sydney) that he is now probable. The line has come into 1.5 at most places.

Stan James has it at 2.5 ($1.91). Stan James seems to be going their own way on NFL this year. They are offering $1.91 but as opposed to most bookies instead of moving the price (ie 1.92 to 1.87) they are moving the line. Not sure if they actually know how imprtant the difference is between 2.5 and 3 etc.

Better for us. Right now they have 9 of their lines .5 point different then everyone else. Anyway could be worth keeping an eye on them.

[karla909]

Hi - guys

I'll go slow this weekend as I do like a lot of the away dogs but they aren't winning. Just 2 picks and need to improve my 3-7 record.

Green Bay +8 bt Carolina.
The struggling Packers don't lose 4 in a row often. They played well against TB and went within a whisker of a tie. Carolina haven't exactly been world beaters either at 1-2. The Packers have a -5 t/o ratio which has been their main problem. THe defenses are better than the offenses for both teams. I expect a close defensive game with Carolina not risking too much and that should give the "pack" a chance to cover the 8 points.

Arizona - San Francisco over 43.
The NFL is on show in Mexico and both these teams are very poor defensively especially against the pass. SF scored over 28 in two of their games and have a good passing stats. THe 49ers have averaged 38 points against Arizona on the road in their last 3 starts. Arizona have allowed an average of 40 points in their 2 road games. I expect Arizona to get the ball to their speedster Johnson and to have worked on their red zone offense. Hopefully both teams will want to put on a spectacular passing show for the Mexicans and go over the total.

[saratoga samchaz]

Haven't had any time to study the NFL this week, what with all the horse racing going on in every continent imaginable. But I've been lucky this weekend so far so hopefully it carries over into football. Karla, great theory about the Mexico Bowl! Only makes sense that they will let loose.


Week 3
Detroit +6-(7?) ***
St L +3 ***
Minn +6 **
SD +5- **

[mad]

Hey guys and gals,

Here is a little play i picked up from someone else.
Jets +7 $3.76
Vikings +6 $3.40

Only need one to get up = $$$$$$

Other plays i am considering,
Giants
Eagles
Seahawks
Raiders
Jags

Homedog = Titans

Hopefully a better weekend than last.

[mad]

Well there you go, the folly of listening to tips from others displayed there.

Homedog system let me down, well i suppose it served me well the last couple of weeks so it was due a down week. Was always a risk against the Colts but thought +7 points at home might be good enough against an offence not firing on all cylinders. Colts would have to be worthy Superbowl favourites.

Jags very disappointing but i think the Broncos are a good team and are playing well so i suppose there is no shame in that. Other selections were OK, Seahawks went close and a couple of winners as well. Another so-so week for me.

Some nice calls Toga and Karla, especially Lions and Chargers. See ya all again next week - some interesting games i spy at this early stage.

[karla909]

Hi mad

Another interesting weekend of NFL. I need Green Bay to cover to get a split for the weekend as again my service went for away dogs and STL and MIN bit the dust although I did have San Diego. Nothing like waking up at 3.30 am to see your bet down 14 0. If I could survive the first 2 minutes of some of these games I would be ok. Anyway go the Pack.

Still early days but the San Diego running game must impress as they ran straight through defensive lines again this week, with New England being the victim. Running a line through their matches I think Denver and the NY Giants must also be good teams.

Week 4 stats wrap

Buffalo - NO - difficult to judge where the Saints are at, but they looked happier this week against a very bad Buffalo team. Buffalo have no offense especially passing (67 yds). They replaced their qb to try and get something going to no avail. NO won with good ball control and the help of 2 t/o's. NO pass defense looked good.

Detroit - TB Despite the closeness of the score, the Bucs continue to impress. Detroit closed down the running game but TB took to the air with success. What kept the Lions in the game was the 4-1 t/o's. It takes a good team to overcome 3 interceptions. The Lions played well defensively but were ordinary on offense. The Bucs defense won the game.

Sea - Wash - stats were as even as the o/t scoreline. This was the Redskins worse defensive game which I think just shows how good the Seattle offense is. Seattle passed well and have only 1 t/o in the last 3 games.

STL - NYG. I think the Giants are a good team and the loss to SD last week shows how good SD is. STL had 5 t/o, no rushing (42 yds) and put up big passing numbers (434 yds) in desperation mode. NY rushed for 164 yards.

Hou-Cinci The Bengals came down to earth getting only1 turnover. Then won against a very poor Houston team and continued to look good on offense. Houston's offensive line aren't geting the job done allowing 7 sacks and only getting 128 yds through the air.

SD-NE Vey impressive offensive figures for the Chargers including 183 yds rushing against a pretty good NE defense. NE have lots of injuries and losing 2 to's to none didn't help. NE are losing the t/o battle each week and still haven't rushed for more than 80 yds in any game this year.

Denver-Jax . Denver 188 yds rushing - Jax 12 yds rushing plus 4 t/o's favouring Denver sums it up. Denver had the ball for most of the game.

Indy-tenn - stats pretty close despite the score (31-10) Indy has 4 wins but only ordinary stats on both sides of the ball. They are winning on mistake free football (0 sacks and only 2 T/o's this year) and a great red zone defense. The Titans have a very inexperienced team whose numbers aren't that bad. As the season progress, they will improve and can't be taken for granted.

NYJ -Balt The Jets have no qb and no offense. 7 first downs and 28 yds rushing. Baltimore were lucky they caught NY in this mode. Baltimore won with +2 to's but showed little on offense. Not impresive at all.

MIN-ATL. Atlanta rushed for 285 yds and sacked Minnesota 9 times. Atlanta has passing problems with Vick being hurt again. The Vikings are very bad and I think their win last week against New Orleans was an anomaly. They can't run and can't defend the rush. Culpepper has been sacked 16 times in 2 games. No line = no wins.

Dallas - Oakland. Even stats with the opening 85 yd pass to Moss being the difference. Dallas have now got 5 of 7 games at home and in a tough division could surprise a few teams.

Phil-KC KC shut down the Eagles rushing game (28 yds)and Mcnabb and Owens went to the air to win in a big comeback. Phil passing stats are very impressive. KC continues to run wll (144 yds). Their run defense returned to normal which indicates how good Denver's rushing is. lost the t/o battle 2-4 in a game they should have won.

Ari-SF How bad is SF. Given a 14-0 lead on 2 fumbles they then proceeded to waste 55 minutes in a very poor effort. While their defense tried hard, they got worn down as they had a minus 33 field possession which is a very big difference. Arizona won but still can't score td's. The 49ers made them look good although they passed very well (368 yds). However against a good offense team, their defense won't hold up.

[karla909]

Can not believe this crap. For about the 8th game in a row, an opening fumble leads to a TD and I'm f**ked again.

[mad]

Yep, i know the feeling. I had Green Bay plus the points to win. Thought the same as you after the first half, third quarter even - wasn't much better. Great comeback though.

[saratoga samchaz]

Hey Karla ANd MAd, Hope all is well leading into Week 5. Karla, grreat call on the SF over and the 49'ers are terrible. ( I hate to see my once proud team reduced to the team I was used to seeing as a kid in the 70's) talk about cycles!

Thanks for the PATS on the back Mad, but the one theory I am proudest of this year is the scheduling snafu with NE. In combination with injuries and loss of assistant coaches, the lines scream to play against NE right now. Things may change in mid november on, but I'm continuing to play against them right now and i will start to play against NO as well. THe Saints can't continue to function normally with all the distractions they are facing. It will catch up. The Eagles were pretty gustsy in their comeback at KC and this shows how bad they may really want this season. We'll see. Oakland seems to be back to a competitive level, at least where the line is concerned.

[mad]

Hey Toga and Karla,

Geez, some tough games this week - to pick that is. All these lines hovering around the 3 point mark. One minute i'm leaning this way the other i've convinced myself to go the other. It is in situations like these that i find that it is better to keep my money in my pocket... LOL

ATC, any chance you would post your rankings, see if they can help.

[saratoga samchaz]

Very interesting article in Thursday's Daily Racing Form( DRF.COM) concerning teams coming off bye weeks. Last week all four teams coming off byes (Hou, Det, Wash, and Balt) covered the spread. This weeks plays would be MIAMI +3 at buffalo and PITTSBURGH +3 at san diego. Cleveland and Chicago are playng each other so they cancel each other out.

Also, the UNDER is 33-26-1 (56%) so far for the NFL season. IND, CINN, and TB are all 4-0 on their games going under. I have always felt that the under is the better value anyway, due to the linemaker's making the over slightly higher than it should be due to the public's lean towards playing the over.

Home teams are 32-26-1 ATS (55%)

HOME DOGS are 9-6 ATS (60%)
69%
Double digit underdogs are 2-1 ATS (66%)

Underdogs of 7 or more points are 9-4 (69%)
" " " " " " 7 1/2 or more points are 4-1 (80%)**

[karla909]

Hi guys


Don't you just love October. Weather impoves, baseball all day every day, the hockey starts and NFL hits full gear. Went 2-0 here to improbe to 5-7 but I must say I was lucky with SF doing everything in its power to make Arizona look good to get the over and GB gettng the back door cover as Carolina went into sleep mode. Alls well that ends well.

The Fox game is Tampa Bay v NY Jets at 3 am.

After last week you might wonder if some teams like Buffalo, the Jets, Jax, GB, SF and Houston should bother showing up. But they are all returning home and as we know bad looking teams returning home suddenly look like world beaters. The lines are all reflecting this with 11 of 14 being on a field goal to seperate them.

Thanks for the stats Saratoga. Total Points in the NFL usually average around 42.5 and they are down to 40 this year.

My picks are

Carolina v Arizona under 43.5. Arizona showed us last week that they still can't score td's even if they are given the ball for the whole game. Facing a much tougher defense here in Carolina I don't expect them to get too many 7 pointers again. Carolina also doesn't have a great offense and the stats show that Arizona defense is about the same as Carolina's. Two poor offenses against 2 average to good defenses looks like field goals will be the order of the day which should lead to a score about 4-6 points beneath the line.

Jacksonville -2.5 bt Cinci. The Bengals are +15 on the t/o table and have beaten teams that are a combined 3-11. Recieving all the breaks and only beating poor teams makes the Bengals look pretty good. The JAX are 2-2 and have played much harder opposition (10-6 combined). Cinci have been getting it done through the air and I expect that to stop on Sunday as the Jaguars are #2 in pass defense on my stats. Time for Cinci to be unlucky with the turnovers and facing a real good defense leads me to think the Jag's will win a low scoring contest by 3 or 6.

Seattle +3 bt STL. Seattle are my #1 offensive team and playing a poor defensive team in the Rams. The Seahawks should be able to run well and then set up the long passes. Stl passes ok but their rushing is poor. Seattle has a good pass defense and should hold St Loius at bay. It could be a high scoring game but I think Seattle has too many guns for the Rams.

Good luck to you all

[mad]

Hi Guys and Gals,

Been busy this week so i haven't done much. Thinking along the lines of Miami, Tennessee, Broncos and the Steelers this week. All underdogs with points, except the Broncos of course. I tempted to take the Pats as Vick is injured.

Anyways take care and good luck to all our teams.

[saratoga samchaz]

Det -1

Chi +2-

Jax(on Karla's advice, but no pressure, lass! LOL)

[mad]

Close call on Jax, pheew!
Need the Steelers to get up for a winning weekend.
Redskins maybe not as bad as i once thought - perhaps, huge numbers for them this weekend but don't tell saratoga i said that though. Broncos D must have been clinging on for their lives.

Anyway, i hope you guys and gals did OK. Only so-so pour moi, again. Oh well haven't lost much nor won much so can't really complain. Go Steelers!

[saratoga samchaz]

Hey there Mad, no shame in not being able to get a handle on this year's parity filled NFL crop. It only figures that the year I give up booking, it starts to get wierd again! LOL! I have always held the opinion of (and not just "On Any Given Sunday...") the NFL being filled with the BEST football players and coaches, no matter how bad the team is record wise. These guys are all professionals and almost all are equally matched in most categories at their respective positions. Obviously there are greats that use their intangibles to outperform others, but usually the talent level is closer than perceived (even with the Skins and Niners LOL). Good luck on Pitt tonight Mad. They are the eam off the bye so we'll see what happens. Thanks for Jax also Karla though I got a push. No biggy though as my friend who books would have gotten killed if J'ville covered with him.

[karla909]

Hi guys

Yes the Jax game had me squirming. Thankfully the t/o's caught up with Cincy in the last minute. I thought for sure it was going for o/t. But, I won't be bagging the Bengals any more. They are a good team with a very good qb and that Johnson is a super receiver. If you saw the game, did you notice how Cinci created tunnels for their running back. He kept going into the middle of the line and popping up 6 yards downfield? If their defensive line was better they would be a real force.

We are on oposite sides today, MAD as I am on the Chargers. Maybe we should bet with each other and save the vig? LOL

It sure is important to get those .5 points on the 3 mark. It probably only makes a difference a couple of times a year, but it does make a difference.

Hey, Saratoga, do you know whats going on with College football. Watched the Thursday nite game and 2 guys got penalized for demonstrating after scoring. One guy did a somersault and the other guy did hardly anything. From memory he spun the ball into the fence. Seems weird to not allow any sort of enthusiam after a TD. After a t/o they seem to be allowed to celebrate all they want. They are college age guys after all.

Speaking of penalties, it must be nearly impossible to be a defensive player in the NFL. Can't touch a qb, can't touch a receiver. Soon they will be playing touch or flag football.


Very sad news I'm afraid. Karla, the 14 year old German shepherd died of liver cancer last week. She had a good life spent running wild and guarding the sheds and property out here. I am a Canadian born male person who happily resides in outback Australia. And I really wish somebody would show CFL on TV.

Back later with the stats review.

[saratoga samchaz]

Sorry to hear about Karla. Can't be anything harder than losing your best friend. I have two questions I like to ask people to judge a little about their character. 1) Do you like dogs? 2)Do you like the Beatles? Gotta say yes to both or we're not even close to being in the same ballpark.

Canadian, eh? You missed a great hockey game tonight between the Leafs and Senators (Ott 6-5 in ot). Hockey is my #1 sport and the Habs rule!

Yeah, i should have shopped around, especially after preaching earlier in the season but I was too lazy to grab the 1/2 point advantage in the J'ville game.

Those celebration penalties are stupid anyway, but some guys go to the extreme and it can be unnerving.

[karla909]

Thanks Saratoga

We've got 2 other dogs but not in the same class as the pure bred Karla. The missus is already talking about finding another.

I was born in TO and old enough to remember NHL when there was only 6 teams. Grew up in Ottawa where my dad still lives but never seen the Sens. Of course, the arch rival is the Habs until of course they play anybody else then its "go Habs go". I am French Canadian by the way.

Never bet on hockey as I always lose and the empty net goals are a real bummer for the totals. Is the o/t shoot out working out? Only hockey we get is from ESPN but they don't have anything scheduled for October. Espn never never never show Canadian teams in either Baseball or Hockey unless its the playoffs. (contratual thing with Canadian TV I think). In hockey, if last couple of years are a guide we will get Detroit, Colorado, or Rangers games once or twice a week. They do a good job when playoffs come around though.

Pittsburgh sure look good now the Bus is back.

Bon chance mon ami et je t'aime les "Beatles".

[saratoga samchaz]

Bon chance aussi! or is it Aussie?!?! That's great that you were around when the original six played. You would remember my Dad's cousin then. He was one of the greats--Bill Durnan goalie for the Habs. I went to the last game at the Forum. It was great!

[karla909]

Hi guys


I went 2-1 with picks last week with Seattle outscoring STL and the Jax barely holding on to beat a good Cinci side and losing the unders bet on Ari/Car by .5 when Carolina scored 2 late td’s. Now 7-8.

Notes. St Louis loss at home was only 10<SUP>th</SUP> in last 50 games. Miami have lost 9 of their last 10 road games. Fox game at 3 am is NY Giants v Dallas on Monday


Stats wrap (winner in bold)

Tampa Bay – NY Jets. Watched this game and still can’t figure out how the Jets won. TB won the stats and had a huge (71-48) advantage in the total plays and had 2 more t/o’s . According to the stats NY is still a very bad offensive team (212 yds all up) and TB is a very good defense team. Vinny must have had god on his side. The Jets defense is fairly solid.

NO – GB The Packers got 5 t/os and played a very good defensive game. NO looks like they are going to be very hard to pick this year as its going to be hard to figure out where their collective heads are at. GB on offense figures were average for them so not to get carried away as they are still a below average bunch of cheeseheads.

Chi – Cle Cleveland got 2 t/os in the last 3 minutes to salvage a very close game statistically. Chicago’s run defense had another good game and haven’t been blown out yet on pass defense. Their offense had a good running day (176 yards) but their passing offense is very bad averaging only 128 yds per game. Clevland are the opposite in they can move the ball through the air but can’t run. Clevlands defense had their worse day against the run but their best day against the pass (90 yds)


Miami – Buf As a Bills fan I am happy with a win but it really was a loss by Miami. The Dolphins were the better team statistically playing up to their averages and their defense played well against a very very bad Buffalo pass offense (avg 100 yds per game). However 5 t/os and 18 penalties handed the game to Buffalo.


Balt – Det Similar stats to the Miami/Buf game with Baltimore winning the stats (387 to 260) but self destructing giving away 21 penalties and 4 to’s. Baltimore finally got a running game going (159 yds). Their defense reversed itself shutting down Detroits passing (90 yds) but allowing Detroit to run for 169 yards which is about twice as much as their average for the first 3 games. Detroit played average on both sides of the ball with a little better running game but their average is not going to get a lot of wins unless they get lots of help like the Ravens provided.

NE – ATL Both teams ran riot on offense with +400 yards each in a close statistically game. Vick didn’t play which may have provided the 3 point difference. Atlanta had their worst defnsive game, their worst rushing game and their best passing game. NE finally rushed for over 100 yds (141) but continued to play badly on defense.

SEA – STL Both teams passed for over 300 yards in a bit of a shoot out. Close game with Seatle getting 2 t/o’s to make the differnce. Seattle has a good running game (avg 135 yds) and has not allowed a t/o in their last 3 games. STL can pass but has no defense.

Ten – Hou Both teams played up to the mediocre averages. Houston again got sacked 7 times bringing their total to 27 for the year. Both teams are headed for mediocrity this year.

Indy- SF - Indy won their 5<SUP>th</SUP> straight but again played below last years numbers on offense. Their defense completely shut down SF’s very bad offense (44 yds passing). Indy gave up their first sack and 3 t/os (only 2 in first 4 games) but the 49’s coughed it up 5 times. Hard to tell exactly where the Colts are but SF are going nowhere. The Monday night game this week against STL might tell us more.

Car – Ari The Panthers got +2 to’s which got them the game as Arizona had most of the ball and put up the better numbers. (Car 56 plays for 330 and Ari 74 for 464). Both teams are having trouble running the ball.

Phi- Dallas The most suprising result of the day as Dallas absolutely shut down the Phil offense and dominated the play. The Cowboys outplayed the Eagles by 456 yds to 129 without any t/os. Philly could only get 6 first downs and 19 yds rushing. Big big came for Dallas against the division leader.

Wash- Denv Another game where the away team dominated the statsbut lost a close one. Denver had another good rushing game but their pass offense was shut down (92 yds) for the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> straight game. Washington put up good enough numbers to win especially on yds passing but the fickled finger of fate was not on their side this week.

Cin-Jax Very close game that could have gone either way. The jax got their running game going (181 yds) and got their t/o at the right time. Cinci proved that thier early form is good form and kept their numbers up against a very good defence.

Pit – SD Despite losing my dough, no complaints as the better team got up in the last minute. Close game statistically. The Steelers played up to their numbers while the Chargers were held to 66 yards rushing. Seeing that they averaged 225 in their last 2 efforts that was a big effort by the Steeler defense. But it was a cliff hanger of a game marred by too many penalties and Steelers proved if you have only a tiny distance to go then use “the bus”.

[karla909]

Hi Everyone

Can't see any team that looks like they will beat the spread this week, so I'll try and improve my 7-8 record with a couple of totals.


Baltimore - Cleveland over 34.5

Rather a low total considering that the Ravens have allowed 24, 25 and 35 points in 3 of their 4 games this year. THe other game was against the NY Jets when the Jets didn't have a qb. If they allow that average they only have to score about 10 themselves. The Browns are a pretty average team and Baltimore should have an easier time of scoring. Really 2 average teams on offense and defense and since the NFL average points is about 40 I am going with the over.

Seattle - Houston under 46

Houston can't score and can't pass. They have had a little success running the ball so I figure that they are going to run and try and keep the Seattle offense off the field. Seattle are about the number 1 offensive team and have set up their great passing game with the run. So I figure they will run a lot also. The Seattle coach (Holgrem) is a very conseravitive guy and doesn't see much value in thrashing the opposition. If Seattle are ahead, which they should be, I figure the Seahawks will eat up the clock by running and rest their somewhat beat-up receiving corp. One team who are very bad offensively against another team who aren't looking to prove anything by winning by heaps should lead to game that will go under the 46.

[thefan]

Chicago vs Minnesota $2.30 win

[saratoga samchaz]

DET +2 ***

WASH +6 **

MIA +3 **

Under Sea ** (Karla, your analysis has lured me again. Looks like sound advice. Good luck)