What to measure ?

[wesmip1]

Hi,

I know this has probably been posted before but I couldn't find anything in the previous threads..

What are the things you should record and have a system look at :

For example I know you should at least record

Date
Track Name
Track Condition
Race Length
Number of starters
Horse Name
Horse Age
Horse WIN Dividend
Horse Place Dividend
Total horse races
Total horse wins
Total horse seconds
Total horse Thirds
Days Since last run
Course Horse races
Course Horse wins
Course horse seconds
Course horse Thirds
Distance Horse races
Distance Horse wins
Distance horse seconds
Distance horse Thirds
Weather
Trainer Name
Jockey Name
Jockey Wins
Jockey Rides Total
Jockey Course Wins
Jockey Course Places
Jockey Course Total
Jockey Distance Wins
Jockey Distance Places
Jockey Distance Total
Last Start Result
Second Last Start Result
Third Last Start Result
Length Finished behind winner
Avg Length finished behind winner

Which of these are more important ? What other things should I record (and where can I get them )?

Thanks for any help provided.

[KennyVictor]

What position it finished :-)

Maybe estimated lengths lost due to being blocked for a run, or whatever.

[beton]

You missed this one

The next winner

Regards Beton

[kenchar]

wesmip1,
Are you really serious about all those stats, you would never get to put a bet on.
Haven't you ever heard of the K.I.S.S. method.

[darkydog2002]

Backmarker or races on the pace /good early speed in the majority of their races.

Everything and more available in the WIZARD every Friday.

Cheers.
darky.

[dingoboy]

very indepth records, like kenchar says you wouldnt have time to bet,
you could use last five or ten runs, 6572654112 eg and a touch of late mail, if i looks ok in the ring and the odds are on YOUR side, bet on it.
Ive looked at lot of races and can often think that my nag is unbeatable, ie THE top trainer, THE top jockey, THE best Barrier (which i believe there isnt) THE best recent form etc, do i bet on it, well it depends on what my gut says,
Cheers dingo

[darkydog2002]

With a quality racing paper like the Friday WIZARD most of this stuff your looking at is "at a glance" stuff.
Meaning its all there in front of you.
Concentrate on those horses that are in the top 6 WT/TIME ratings and also in the top 6 of any online bookmakers OPENING quote.

As OSULDJ( a top line proffessional punter who used to occasionally post here) once told me "learn to correctly read form and you cant go far wrong."

Cheers.
darky.

[Shaun]

I agree...i could win as many bets with 3 bits of form as i could with 10...using lots of form just confuses things....a horse will be up and down on different bits of form and if it is the best at all bits of form it will be a crappy price

[Chrome Prince]

DATE
TRACK
RACE
TAB
FORM
HORSE
BARRIER
WEIGHT
CAREER PRIZEMONEY
AGE
COLOUR
SEX
TRAINER
CAREER STARTS
CAREER WINS
CAREER 2NDS
CAREER 3RDS
DISTANCE STARTS
DISTANCE WINS
DISTANCE 2NDS
DISTANCE 3RDS
TRACK STARTS
TRACK WINS
TRACK 2NDS
TRACK 3RDS
FAST STARTS
FAST WINS
FAST 2NDS
FAST 3RDS
GOOD STARTS
GOOD WINS
GOOD 2NDS
GOOD 3RDS
DEAD STARTS
DEAD WINS
DEAD 2NDS
DEAD 3RDS
SLOW STARTS
SLOW WINS
SLOW 2NDS
SLOW 3RDS
HEAVY STARTS
HEAVY WINS
HEAVY 2NDS
HEAVY 3RDS
FIRST UP STARTS
FIRST UP WINS
FIRST UP 2NDS
FIRST UP 3RDS
DAYS BREAK
RUNS SINCE SPELL
DISTANCE VARIATION
WEIGHT VARIATION
API
API RANK
API RATIO
WEIGHT RATIO
CAREER PRIZEMONEY RANK
CAREER PRIZEMONEY RATIO
CAREER WIN PERCENTAGE
CAREER PLACE PERCENTAGE
DISTANCE WIN PERCENTAGE
DISTANCE PLACE PERCENTAGE
TRACK WIN PERCENTAGE
TRACK PLACE PERCENTAGE
FAST WIN PERCENTAGE
FAST PLACE PERCENTAGE
GOOD WIN PERCENTAGE
GOOD PLACE PERCENTAGE
DEAD WIN PERCENTAGE
DEAD PLACE PERCENTAGE
SLOW WIN PERCENTAGE
SLOW PLACE PERCENTAGE
HEAVY WIN PERCENTAGE
HEAVY PLACE PERCENTAGE
FIRST UP WIN PERCENTAGE
FIRST UP PLACE PERCENTAGE
PWLTS
PWLTS RANK
PWLTS RATIO
GOING
JOCKEY
CLOSING PRICE
WIN
PLACE
CLOSING PRICE RANK
RUNNERS
RACE NAME
RACE DISTANCE
RACE CLASS
RACE PRIZEMONEY
AGE RESTRICTION
SEX RESTRICTION
APPRENTICE CLAIM
HANDICAPPING
WEIGHT LIMIT
LAST RUN PLACING
LAST RUN STARTERS
LAST RUN MARGIN
LAST RUN DATE
LAST RUN VENUE
LAST RUN PRIZEMONEY
LAST RUN PRIZEMONEY WON
LAST RUN EVENT
LAST RUN CLASS
LAST RUN AGE
LAST RUN REST
LAST RUN GOING
LAST RUN DISTANCE
LAST RUN TIME
LAST RUN LAST 600m
LAST RUN SP
LAST RUN WGT
LAST RUN ALL
LAST RUN LIMIT
LAST RUN JOCKEY
LAST RUN BP
LAST RUN 800m
LAST RUN 400m
LAST RUN WINNER
2ND LAST RUN PLACING
2ND LAST RUN STARTERS
2ND LAST RUN MARGIN
2ND LAST RUN DATE
2ND LAST RUN VENUE
2ND LAST RUN PRIZEMONEY
2ND LAST RUN PRIZEMONEY WON
2ND LAST RUN EVENT
2ND LAST RUN CLASS
2ND LAST RUN AGE
2ND LAST RUN REST
2ND LAST RUN GOING
2ND LAST RUN DISTANCE
2ND LAST RUN TIME
2ND LAST RUN LAST 600m
2ND LAST RUN SP
2ND LAST RUN WGT
2ND LAST RUN ALL
2ND LAST RUN LIMIT
2ND LAST RUN JOCKEY
2ND LAST RUN BP
2ND LAST RUN 800m
2ND LAST RUN 400m
2ND LAST RUN WINNER
3RD LAST RUN PLACING
3RD LAST RUN STARTERS
3RD LAST RUN MARGIN
3RD LAST RUN DATE
3RD LAST RUN VENUE
3RD LAST RUN PRIZEMONEY
3RD LAST RUN PRIZEMONEY WON
3RD LAST RUN EVENT
3RD LAST RUN CLASS
3RD LAST RUN AGE
3RD LAST RUN REST
3RD LAST RUN GOING
3RD LAST RUN DISTANCE
3RD LAST RUN TIME
3RD LAST RUN LAST 600m
3RD LAST RUN SP
3RD LAST RUN WGT
3RD LAST RUN ALL
3RD LAST RUN LIMIT
3RD LAST RUN JOCKEY
3RD LAST RUN BP
3RD LAST RUN 800m
3RD LAST RUN 400m
3RD LAST RUN WINNER
4TH LAST RUN PLACING
4TH LAST RUN STARTERS
4TH LAST RUN MARGIN
4TH LAST RUN DATE
4TH LAST RUN VENUE
4TH LAST RUN PRIZEMONEY
4TH LAST RUN PRIZEMONEY WON
4TH LAST RUN EVENT
4TH LAST RUN CLASS
4TH LAST RUN AGE
4TH LAST RUN REST
4TH LAST RUN GOING
4TH LAST RUN DISTANCE
4TH LAST RUN TIME
4TH LAST RUN LAST 600m
4TH LAST RUN SP
4TH LAST RUN WGT
4TH LAST RUN ALL
4TH LAST RUN LIMIT
4TH LAST RUN JOCKEY
4TH LAST RUN BP
4TH LAST RUN 800m
4TH LAST RUN 400m
4TH LAST RUN WINNER
PRIZEMONEY VARIATION
DAYS2
DAYS3
DAYS4
LAST RUN METRO TRACK
SAME TRACK
STATE
PWLS RANK
CAREER WIN PERCENTAGE RANK
CAREER PLACE PERCENTAGE RANK
DISTANCE WIN PERCENTAGE RANK
DISTANCE PLACE PERCENTAGE RANK
TRACK WIN PERCENTAGE RANK
TRACK PLACE PERCENTAGE RANK
FIRST UP WIN PERCENTAGE RANK
FIRST UP PLACE PERCENTAGE RANK

<b>PLUS</b>

AUTO SUMMARY CALCULATIONS:


Number of Selections.
Winners.
Win & Place Strike Rates
Win & Place returns based on 1 unit bet on each selection.
Profit / Loss based on 1 unit bet on each selection.
Win & Place Profit On Turnover.
Win & Place Average Dividends.
Win & Place Minimum Dividends.
Win & Place Maximum Dividends.
Unique System Viability Calculations.

http://www.propun.com.au/horse_racing_betting_systems.html

[kenchar]

Shaun, And probably not run a hole.

C.P. You forget whether to check if it has a dump before the race, because if it does all the weight ratings would have to be done again.

[Mark]

and be odds on

[Sportz]

Does the horse read all the stats and realise that it's supposed to win???

[Chrome Prince]

Too True Kenchar...not sure what to call that field -

Excremental Allowance? :)

Actually that works very well at the dogs, the dumping dog is the one to be on, except when it runs like what it left behind :(

[marcus25]

Does the horse read all the stats and realise that it's supposed to win???

Hi!
That seems to be my problem too. I work everything out, neat as can be, but can't communicate it to the ignorant nags.
Now there is a challenge for someone!

[kenchar]

HAY CHEE WHERE ARE YOU YOUR SKILLS ARE NEEDED.

[Chrome Prince]

Does the horse read all the stats and realise that it's supposed to win???

Hi Sportz,

No, the horse doesn't know, but the bookie knows the value of the longterm stats and sets a price in his advantage. It's about getting value, not picking winners.

[kenchar]

Hi Sportz,

No, the horse doesn't know, but the bookie knows the value of the longterm stats and sets a price in his advantage. It's about getting value, not picking winners.
C.P.
This always intrigues me, getting value and not picking winners.
What IS value, WHO determines the value.
So you look at a race you have a selection and you don't think it's value so you don't back it and it bolts in. This happens on 6 of your selections for the day.
You have another 6 selections on the day and they are all twice the odds you expect so you bet them BECAUSE THEY ARE VALUE and they all lose.
So you had 12 selections for the day, the value ones lose and the non value ones win.
The way I see it you had 12 picks for the day and 6 won and unless the 6 winners were all in the red you would have turned a profit on the day.
I know this value thing goes back to the Don Scott days, but I don't think the like of him will ever be seen again.
The other thing that was a looong time ago and things are a 1000% different today.
I'm not trying to be a smartie, just curious.
I repeat What IS value, WHO determines the value.
I look to turn a profit daily, if I achieve that I am a happy camper.
I might get a $2.5 place and the nag was $10 win, now that is BAD value for the place,
if it runs a hole I'm happy.
What I'm trying to say is I look at 6 races can't see anything, the 7th race comes up and something catches my eye and I keep watching and to me looks a good chance to run a hole. I start chasing odds, and I know to get VALUE it MUST be better than $3.25, the best I can get tabs or books is $2.5 so I leave the race, it runs a hole I miss out, when I could have been finished for the day.
Better than $3.25 would be a luxury but sadly it doesn't happen very often.
I agree when chasing odds sometimes I curse and splutter at what is offered, but there is not much I can do about it.

Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Kenchar,

<i>This always intrigues me, getting value and not picking winners.
What IS value, WHO determines the value.
</i>

O.K. scenario a) I pick 20 winners on a Saturday, but due to the odds of the horses, I finish 5 units down - I got poor value, but still picked a lot of winners.

scenario b) I picked three winners and finished 6 units in front - I got good value, but picked few winners.

However, it's not just the result on the day, one can get lucky or unlucky on the day. It's the longterm result. The bottom line or profit determines whether you got value retrospectively. However, by using ratings or statistics one can forecast value to an extent. If either your ratings or statistics are accurate, you can make a judgement and only bet when value is available, therefore raising your profit.

<i>So you look at a race you have a selection and you don't think it's value so you don't back it and it bolts in. This happens on 6 of your selections for the day.
You have another 6 selections on the day and they are all twice the odds you expect so you bet them BECAUSE THEY ARE VALUE and they all lose.
So you had 12 selections for the day, the value ones lose and the non value ones win.
The way I see it you had 12 picks for the day and 6 won and unless the 6 winners were all in the red you would have turned a profit on the day.</i>

Understand what you're saying here, but a lucky day or unlucky day will always plague the punter, but it's about longterm profit and discipline, by sticking to the value horses, you'll turn a profit far more consistently than just one or two lucky days.

<i>The other thing that was a looong time ago and things are a 1000% different today.</i>

Yes, Don Scott's weight ratings are outdated now, but were a revolution at the time, until everyone including bookmakers started using them - that's when the value disappeared for the Legal Eagles. He was able to do so well, by looking at the handicapping of horses in another way and exploiting the value angle. (only betting when the odds were in his favour). I'm sure he saw many horses win, which he didn't back because of poor value. Then the value disappeared. The strike rate of his picks multiplied by the average win dividend did no longer exceed 100%.

<i>I'm not trying to be a smartie, just curious.
I repeat What IS value, WHO determines the value.</i>

I know you're not Kenchar, and never view your posts in that way.
Value is when you are able to get a better price than what you have ACCURATELY assessed via some method to win longerm.

You determine the value after having a lot of information that you have deemed accurate and has proven itself by previously returning you a longterm profit.

There can be 6 different people with 6 different methods, all rating different horses value. They are all correct if they all show a longterm profit. There's more than one way to make a profit, some are more lucrative than others.


<i>What I'm trying to say is I look at 6 races can't see anything, the 7th race comes up and something catches my eye and I keep watching and to me looks a good chance to run a hole. I start chasing odds, and I know to get VALUE it MUST be better than $3.25, the best I can get tabs or books is $2.5 so I leave the race, it runs a hole I miss out, when I could have been finished for the day.
</i>

You're already deciding what's value by looking at the market. Maybe you have a gut feel and particular finesse for doing it this way. That's not to say you're not doing it the right way. If it works for you, then you are good at identifying value without form or ratings or statistics. Don't let anyone tell you it can't be done - you're doing it!

[Shaun]

Kenchar....i know this is a pointless question to ask...lol...but do you keep any records of your bets and your turnover and your strike rate.....to any normal punter i would say these are very important...and even you could benefit from keeping these records....

[crash]

In a nutshell, you nailed it there Chrome.

Quote:"There can be 6 different people with 6 different methods, all rating different horse's value. They are all correct if they all show a longterm profit. There's more than one way to make a profit, some are more lucrative than others." End quote.

Winning battles isn't the goal, winning the war is.

I think punters shoot themselves in the foot a lot through betting on far too many poor betting races [compulsive punting]. If punters put as much effort into selecting the races to bet on as they put into selecting a runner to back, they would be well on the way to profitable punting. We can be our own worst enemy and the biggest barrier to long term profit.

Regarding race stats. Too much info. is useless info. All info. must be rated to be of any use and the more we use, the less accurate it's total often becomes.
There is an optimum amount of info for an individual. Juggling the value of 10 stats per runner is for some, all of these, some of these or none of these: Too much info, not enough info, just the right amount of info. We all have to work out our own requirements we can comfortably work with for our needs and style. What works for Jack doesn't necessarily work for Jill.

[kenchar]

C.P.

I think the paragraph of yours that Crash quoted explains a lot to me.


Quote:"There can be 6 different people with 6 different methods, all rating different horse's value. They are all correct if they all show a longterm profit. There's more than one way to make a profit, some are more lucrative than others." End quote.

This is what intrigued me, WHO defines the value.
From that paragraph it seems it is the person's METHOD that says whether to bet or not.

Shaun,
I think you already know the answer.
I list my bets as I bet using pen and paper, when the return is more than the outlay I stop.
I then put the profit into my book I use , with a running total for the month.
If a lose day, the loss goes into the book and comes off the total.
That's it, no other records, they don't mean anything to me.
As you know I'm currently running a win method in conjunction with my place.
Yesterday for example I bet 10 races, with a total of 16 bets.
To start I went down 11 points then got to up 4 points, thats it finished.
The profit goes into the book and added to the total.
I can't see how keeping numerous records of strike rate, POT etc etc can help me,
as it all comes down to $$$, As long as my last column goes up and up I'm happy.

Crash,
As we say all to our own, but I personally will never agree with you in relation to race class, BUT thats only me as I do better in the lower class races.

Cheers to all.

[Bhagwan]

Heres another idea to check out.


1)Target races where the whole field has had 8+ career starts.
2)Select 5-6 horses from any rating method or mob who does them.
e.g. AAP Neurals , Wizard Racing paper , Best Bets, API ranking, Place % ranking ect.
3)Write down the price as per IAS Bookmakers.
4)Back all the ones either paying more than IAS at jump time or chase the ones paying less at jump time . That is a subjective thing for one to work to what works best for them.

I feel with too many stats in front of oneselfe, one would end up with analysis paralysis with 2 bets out of 80 races, both loosing at odds on.

[crash]

As you can see below Kenchar I never mentioned race 'class', so there is nothing to disagree with. A "poor betting race" has nothing to do with class.

"I think punters shoot themselves in the foot a lot through betting on far too many poor betting races [compulsive punting]. If punters put as much effort into selecting the races to bet on as they put into selecting a runner to back, they would be well on the way to profitable punting. We can be our own worst enemy and the biggest barrier to long term profit."

A group 1 might be a poor race to bet on and a class 1 might be a good betting race. It all depends on the race. Yes, I do have my race class and distance preferences but among those I carefully choose which of them I think are betable races. Regardless of what class or race distance any punter preferes to bet on, some are going to be good betting propositions and others should be left well alone as dogs.

[darkydog2002]

Couldn,t agree more .
One thing I look for when using the WIZARD wt ratings is races where a maximum of 2 horses are rated at between 100 - 91 and the others below this .
This indicates to me at least that here you have 2 standouts .
With 2 standouts like this I need a minimum of $3 on both to make a profit and usually an online bookie (market forces ) will allow this .
Cheers.
darky.

[kenchar]

Crash,

Point taken.

[Shaun]

Kenchar...thats cool...atleast you are putting something in the book to know where you stand how much you have bet and how much you have won....some people don't even do that

[wesmip1]

Thanks to everyone who replied ...

I have decided on Expertform for my data, basically because I can easily write a program to download the data for myself and then I can run my own calculations on it.

Thanks again.