Need advice on my system

[Silver_and_sand]

Hi Guys. I think I need some advice. After 18 months of trying to formulate a successful horse racing system I think I might finally be on to something. I've only been able to trial it for 15 days so far, but the results are looking promising.

There's been a total of 96 selections so far.
Win strike rate = 29/96 or 30%
Win return = 197.0 units
Win POT = 105%
Average win dividend = $6.79

Place strike rate = 64/96 or 66%
Place return = 137.6 units
Place POT = 43%
Average place dividend = $2.15

My longest run of outs has been 4, which has occured just the once, and there was also 1 run of 3 outs. Of the 15 days trialled so far, there have been 3 losing days, which saw losses of 4.0 units, 0.6 units and 0.1 units.

I think I need some advice on appropriate unit size. I feel fairly confident with my selections, but obviously I don't want to wager so much that the inevitable extended run of outs empties my bank. Does making the unit size 1% of my bank make any sense? If I were to make 1 unit win wagers and 3 unit place wagers that would mean I'd be wagering 4% of my bank on every selection and therefore wouldn't survive a run of 25 outs, though honestly, I'm not sure I could see that ever happening (isn't that what they always say, LOL). What do you think? How should I determine how much should be wagered? What % of your bank do you usually bet?

Though I've been studying and testing systems for a while now, I am still very much a novice, and would greatly appreciate any advice you guys can offer.

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Hi-Yo Silver, Away!

[Neil]

Nice results.

Just a few comments.

Sorry to disappoint you, but statistically the sample is probably too small to draw valid conclusions. But it's sure nice to be on the winning side! If you were staking level stakes you'd be well in front and able to easily withstand a losing run.

You mention a winning strike rate of 30%. That means on average three winners from every 10 bets or approximately one winner every three bets.

Let's assume this is a long term strike rate that would be maintained over thousands of bets.

So far with that strike rate your longest run of outs has been four.

With a 30% strike rate I think you have been very fortunate to only have a run of outs that small.

Assuming a 30% strike rate each race you have seven out of 10 chances of losing. So your chances of losing two races in a row are 7/10 x 7/10 which equals 49/100 - that's just about 50%. After you have lost two races in a row your chances of losing that third race is 70%. Your chances of losing that fourth race are also 70%. Your chances of then losing a fifth race are also 70%.

The safest staking method, unless you are able to assess what odds each of your selections should be is level stakes.

[darkydog2002]

Very sound advice there Neil.
Cheers.
darky.

[Bhagwan]

With a Win 30% SR one has to be prepared for the thoretical run of outs based on 10,000 bets of 20 outs in a row & 7 outs in a row for the 66% Place SR.

I find 3 samples of 150 continuious bets gives a fair indication if it has legs or not.
Each sample should either break even or show a profit.

Your 4% of bank betting 1x3, sounds reasonable enough.

Cheers.