Strike rates

[Mad Gambler]

I recieved an email that stated they get an 80% strike rate from 6 rated selections. On the other hand, I rate 2 or 3 races and take the top 5 or 6 according to the ratings, but I get only 16% strike rate.

Can someone clear up the confussion.

Mad Gambler.

[Wunfluova]

Mad Gambler, you are probably calculating the strike rate of winners to selections whereas they are referring to strike rate of winners to races?

Their strike rate of 80% means that they pick the winner of eight out of ten races from the top six selections. If you are not achieving a comparable strike rate then I suggest you change to a new ratings provider.

Wun

[mad]

They're not trying to sell you a system for $5000 by any chance?

If so - Run.

[Shaun]

I can acheive a strike rate of 75% winners to races with top 5....problem is as always what to do with your top 5 horses...if you backed them all you won't win....the best thing to do is take your top 5 and back anything paying more than $5 this should be about 3 selections a race

[Dale]

The same sort of results can be gained by using pre post prices.

I'd study their respective average win dividends before outlaying any hard earned.

I'd also try to find out if they have a field size restriction on their selections and or how they do in the bigger fields,any mug can have an 80% strike rate from 6 selections in a small field.

Either way you still need to eliminate some no hopers to turn a profit.

[davez]

why bother with any of these 'services'?

true enjoyment of the punt comes with the genuine satisfaction experienced when, as a result of your own hard work, you start to get it right more often than you get it wrong, something methinks that can never be experienced by paying for ones selections.

[Mad Gambler]

I'm going to shop around for the best prices and see if I can make a profit as I have several online accounts with several bookmakers.

Just a thought. What do you guys think?


Mad Gambler

[Oaksnaf]

To make a small fortune, start with a large one thats how i think of these services. Id rather do it myself, and like davez said its more enjoyable knowing you picked the winner yourself.

But your money, your choice. Just hope its the right one.

[Bhagwan]

Heres a plan that gets 100% SR

Target the top 7 TAB Nos in 7 horse fields .
Jokes aside.

One would acheive a high SR targeting the top 7 TAB Nos in races with 8-13 runners .

One idea would be to bet all the runners paying $5.00-25.00 at jump time among those 7 runners.

If one were to consider this approach , watch out for those days where the Fav decides to get up all day.

Best to cherry pick ones races where the Fav has a good chance of falling over . e.g. target races where the pre-post Fav is exactly the same Wt. as last start , these have a habit of not getting up one after the other after the ****** other , which is what you want. We dont want the Favs winning too often, if following this simplistic idea.

Cheers.

[Mad Gambler]

Here are the last 2 months results from backing 4 horses in the same race. Sydney metro only on saturdays.

there were 72 races for 47 winners from 270 selctions. It made a loss of $87.00 at level stakes.

At the moment I'm looking at several ideas at improving this selection method, so that I can make a profit. I'll let you all know the results of my research.

Mad Gambler

[lomaca]

I'm going to shop around for the best prices and see if I can make a profit as I have several online accounts with several bookmakers.

Mad Gambler
Hi Mad!
Just my opinion of course, and you (or anyone else) can try to prove me wrong, but if your strikerate is not good enough and-or your return is also so low, that you have to depend on a marginal difference in prices on offer, then you never really make long term profit.
Sure, sometimes you see quite large differences between TABs, but in the long run it all comes out relatively even, I have been watching it for some time now.
It is far more profitable to improve the strikerate or eliminate low paying nags. On top of that you will save yourself a lot of work and mistakes.
Just a thought.

[crash]

Thread double posted. See below for post.

[crash]

I'd agree there Lomaca, small differences but I guess they do add up and some punters chase those differences which is fair enough.

I'm pity slack about my racing win/losses [in for a penny in for a pound] % differences between accounts and have several including a TAB one for betting when I'm off-line or away. Can you believe the TAB froze withdrawals from my 20+ yr. account because I had too much money in it ? I have been trying to get access to those funds since Feb. and I'm still trying. I can put money into it and bet with it, but can't withdraw [yet] ???

[davez]

Can you believe the TAB froze withdrawals from my 20+ yr. account because I had too much money in it ? I have been trying to get access to those funds since Feb. and I'm still trying. I can put money into it and bet with it, but can't withdraw [yet] ???


then your are a much more patient man than myself crash & obviously not doing it too tough without that cash.

btw, its almost october, so you are saying they have denied you access to your account for over 7 months? i'd be putting in a claim for interest once you can get your hands on it

[KennyVictor]

I did a study a few months back on the returns from various Tabs on exotics and contrasted that with the return on best div. In all cases the best div return was at least 10% better than the return on the highest paying Tab. Total Tab returns varied up to 5 or 10% in some cases but which Tab payed highest varied so as someone said above it doesn't seem to make much difference which Tab you bet with. The study was on a total of over 3000 races betting at the shorter end of the market.
As a result I make sure I bet with IAS for exotics, they pay at least as well as the second best Tab divvy on any race and often better than best div on shorter priced wins. This has turned what would have been an ordinary performance for me betting quinellas over the last couple of months into a healthy profit.
I'm not sure if best div on wins or place would be as marked a difference but I suggest every percent you can get back adds to your bottom line. And of course, you aren't flattening the divvies with your bets if you avoid the TAB.

KV