A Question

[Oaksnaf]

Hello,

Ive read a lot about people calculating their own race odds. As in they rate #1 a $7 chance, when in fact its $12 on the real odds, or the other way round.

Im interested to know how you calculate your own race odds. Or is just based on judgement.

Cheers,

[La Mer]

Hello, Ive read a lot about people calculating their own race odds. As in they rate #1 a $7 chance, when in fact its $12 on the real odds, or the other way round. I'm interested to know how you calculate your own race odds. Or is just based on judgement. Cheers,

There are a number of methods of turning ratings into prices.

Simple example:
Horse A: 100
Horse B: 90
Horse C: 80
Total 270

Converting the ratings into prices:
Horse A: 270/100 = $2.70
Horse B: 270/90 = $3.00
Horse C: 270/80 $3.38

In reality the process is a little more complex than this example, but the principles hold true. It also depends on what the rating figure represents. kgs, time difference or some other measure.

[Oaksnaf]

Ahh ok ta.

And how do you calculate the amount of money put onto one horse in any given pool:

eg:

Win
#1 13.9
#2 15.1
#3 11.3
#4 10.7
#5 4.1
#6 7.6
#7 2.9
#8 6.9


Pool: 416

That was a real case.
But i was trying to work out the amount of money put on each singular horse. Is there a way to work that out?

Thanks,

[La Mer]

Ahh ok ta.

And how do you calculate the amount of money put onto one horse in any given pool:

eg:

Win
#1 13.9
#2 15.1
#3 11.3
#4 10.7
#5 4.1
#6 7.6
#7 2.9
#8 6.9


Pool: 416

That was a real case.
But i was trying to work out the amount of money put on each singular horse. Is there a way to work that out?

Thanks,

That would depend on what you are attempting to do, eg. if you want to return 100 units then divide 100 by the price - in the case of the fav in your example #7 to return 100 units you would have to stake 34.5 units (34.5*2.9=100.05). In the case of #1 then the stake would be 7 units (7*13.9=97.3).

[Oaksnaf]

Nah im trying to find out how much money has been put on those horses to make them those odds.

eg: whether the favourite has had 120odd dollars out of the 416 put on it to make it those odds etc.

I have rough estimates but not exact figures.

eg: Its between these two figures}}

1) 21.69784173}}}}29.92805755

2)19.97350993}}}}27.54966887

3)26.69026549}}}36.81415929

4)28.18691589}}}38.87850467

5)73.56097561}}}101.4634146

6)39.68421053}}}54.73684211

7)104}}}143.4482759

8)43.71014493}}}60.28985507

Money bet on those horses.

[BJ]

Ahh ok ta.

And how do you calculate the amount of money put onto one horse in any given pool:

eg:

Win
#1 13.9
#2 15.1
#3 11.3
#4 10.7
#5 4.1
#6 7.6
#7 2.9
#8 6.9


Pool: 416

That was a real case.
But i was trying to work out the amount of money put on each singular horse. Is there a way to work that out?

Thanks,

You would take your dividends. Work out the total market. To do this: 1/#1, +1/#2,+ 1/#3 etc etc.....

#1 7.19%
#2 6.62%
#3 8.85%
#4 9.35%
#5 24.39%
#6 13.16%
#7 34.48%
#8 14.49%
Tot 118.54%

Now divide all these percentages by the total....

6.07%
5.59%
7.47%
7.88%
20.58%
11.10%
29.09%
12.23%
100.00%

Now Multiply the total pool by each percentage...

$25.25 1
$23.24 2
$31.06 3
$32.80 4
$85.60 5
$46.18 6
$121.02 7
$50.86 8
Total $416.00

I would imagine that the favourite has about $121.02 placed on it at that time...

[Oaksnaf]

You would take your dividends. Work out the total market. To do this: 1/#1, +1/#2,+ 1/#3 etc etc.....

#1 7.19%
#2 6.62%
#3 8.85%
#4 9.35%
#5 24.39%
#6 13.16%
#7 34.48%
#8 14.49%
Tot 118.54%

Now divide all these percentages by the total....

6.07%
5.59%
7.47%
7.88%
20.58%
11.10%
29.09%
12.23%
100.00%

Now Multiply the total pool by each percentage...

$25.25 1
$23.24 2
$31.06 3
$32.80 4
$85.60 5
$46.18 6
$121.02 7
$50.86 8
Total $416.00

I would imagine that the favourite has about $121.02 placed on it at that time...
Ahhh thanks heaps BJ, much appreciated.

[DR RON]

The exact amount would be pretty much half way between your 2 figures. Multiply the pool by about 85% which leaves the amount payable on divs after the takeout. Then just divide the amount showing into the amount payable for divs . example 416 by 85% = 353.60
Number 1 showing $ 13.9 353.60/13.90 = $ 25.43 rounded up gives you about 25.50 That is my understanding of it anyway I may be wrong. If I am then I am sure someone will enlighten us.

[BJ]

The exact amount would be pretty much half way between your 2 figures. Multiply the pool by about 85% which leaves the amount payable on divs after the takeout. Then just divide the amount showing into the amount payable for divs . example 416 by 85% = 353.60
Number 1 showing $ 13.9 353.60/13.90 = $ 25.43 rounded up gives you about 25.50 That is my understanding of it anyway I may be wrong. If I am then I am sure someone will enlighten us.

Well you could probably do that. But the difference is that you are presuming that the take is a nice round 85%.

The market in question is a 118.54% market, giving the tab a 84.36% return to punters.

416*84.36% = 350.94
350.94/13.9 = 25.247 or $25.25

It depends I guess, how accurate you want to be. If you are restricted to a calculator, then 85% would do, but would be just as easy on a spreadsheet either way....

[DR RON]

BJ, I only used 85% for simplicity, as I was not sure of exactly what the take out was. Whatever it is it is too much. No wonder the tabs dont want betting exchanges, fancy punters being able to bet into a 100% market and then pay a paltry 5% if they win.

[crash]

That's why it's called a Mug's game.