The 40/60 System

[Carnegie Express]

Hi All,

Working on a simplistic win and place system which basically finds safer each way horses to bet on. Rules are as follows:
1) Only select horses with a winning percentage of 40% or higher the win and 60% or higher the place

2) No two or three year old races or restricted class races.

3) Only select horses that have finished within 4 lengths of the winner at their last start, provided they did not win.

4) Only select horses with a proven first or second up record in similar quality races.

5) Only select horses that are proven at the track or distance (50% place at worst).

6) Never select a horse with an apprentice jockey on board unless they are claiming below the minimum (generally these horses fail rules 1 & 3 hence the reason for minimum weight and the claim)

7) Never select a horse that has drawn off the track. Stick to horses that have drawn barriers 1-7 (unless down the straight at Flemington or Vic Park).

8) Only bet if the odds for the win are greater than $3.50

9) In races where there are more than one that suffice the above rules no bet.

10) 25 units the win 25 units the place.

Does it look a decent method?

[wesmip1]

Hey,

just looking at this system I would expect it to not get many bets at all and also all of the bets it does throw up are going to be very short priced.

But saying all of that it may still work as there is a high % chance the horses will win.

Good luck with it.

[Carnegie Express]

True, but not always. That is why I have applied the $3.50 rule. Tomorrow there are three to choose from:
Horses to consider 1/10/2005:

Randwick race 9 #13 Fumble

Belmont race 2 #8 Stormy Gale

Belmont race 5 #7 Local Legend

As I am in Sydney have no idea of the early market for the Belmont pair but Fumble is quoted at $9 in early markets. Thanks for your input. I'll road test it here for a month or two and see how it goes.

[wesmip1]

Something to think about ...

Maybe create yourself a blackbook as I think horses with a 40% win rate would be quite rare ( might only be a 20 or 30 meeting your criteria). That way you don't have to check each race for the form. You will just need to check if any of your horses are scheduled to be running on the day.

Good luck with it .. I will follow these selections tommorow as I am eager to see how it performs.

Good Luck

[Carnegie Express]

Hopefully it throws a few winners up. Well, we'll see on Saturday anyway. Thanks again for your input. A black book is a good idea. Didn't even think of that. But the vitual form guide is easy enough to scan.

[blocka]

Carnegie,

I have done some analysis but can't (or at least without a bit more effort) do all the criterea:
I have done:

1) Only select horses with a winning percentage of 40% or higher the win and 60% or higher the place - Win % only

2) No two or three year old races or restricted class races. - See results breakdown, assume 3yo+ is OK

3) Only select horses that have finished within 4 lengths of the winner at their last start, provided they did not win. - OK

4) Only select horses with a proven first or second up record in similar quality races. - Not done

5) Only select horses that are proven at the track or distance (50% place at worst). - Not done

6) Never select a horse with an apprentice jockey on board unless they are claiming below the minimum (generally these horses fail rules 1 & 3 hence the reason for minimum weight and the claim) - Not done

7) Never select a horse that has drawn off the track. Stick to horses that have drawn barriers 1-7 (unless down the straight at Flemington or Vic Park). - OK except for the exceptions

8) Only bet if the odds for the win are greater than $3.50 - OK

9) In races where there are more than one that suffice the above rules no bet. - Not done

10) 25 units the win 25 units the place. - Can only do win results.


Results:
As above:
<TABLE borderColor=#4c6901 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=471 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="14%" height=32>Wins






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Starts






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Places






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>S/R






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Place S/R






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Win Return






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>POT






</TD></TR><TR><TD width="14%" height=16>29






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>192






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>81






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>15.10%






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>42.19%






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>196.75






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>2.47%






</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As above but including restricted races:
<TABLE borderColor=#466901 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=471 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="14%" height=32>Wins






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Starts






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Places






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>S/R






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Place S/R






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Win Return






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>POT






</TD></TR><TR><TD width="14%" height=16>47






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>289






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>120






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>16.26%






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>41.52%






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>296.75






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>2.68%






</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As above but including 2 and 3yo races and including restriced races.
<TABLE borderColor=#456901 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=471 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="14%" height=32>Wins






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Starts






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Places






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>S/R






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Place S/R






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>Win Return






</TD><TD width="14%" height=32>POT






</TD></TR><TR><TD width="14%" height=16>98






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>577






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>231






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>16.98%






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>40.03%






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>615.5






</TD><TD width="14%" height=16>6.67%






</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Edit: Results for Syd/Melb metro from 1/1/2003...

[Carnegie Express]

F**k mate. Thanks for the effort. What you did was good enough but we'll see how it goes live over the next month or so. The reason why I have left out the 2 & 3 year old races is that many of them basically fit the criteria so it is hard to nail one, plus their form is hard to line up. Hopefully I can get some positive results. Like I said though, I only had a think about it yesterday whilst tinkering with an older system. Thanks again. Go the Tigers.

[blocka]

Just a tip Carnegie, keep track of the results of those meeting the criterea that are $4 or less.

[partypooper]

Carn Ex. Just 2 cents worth mate, where I believe you are on the right track is that with 40-60, you are already amongst the winners with this rule alone!!
But I still can't go beyond implementing my pet filters: racing within 21 days over less than 2000m, (unless 1st up over 1200 or less) and must have a win in exposed form, and carrying 60kg's or less and NOT ridden by a 3kg's apprentice.

I've got more but THEY are the gospel, but Fillies and Mares races or Fillies only are really suspect in my view!

[wesmip1]

Results from todays selections :

Randwick race 9 #13 Fumble - 3rd $3.10
Belmont race 2 #8 Stormy Gale - Not Placed
Belmont race 5 #7 Local Legend - 2nd $1.70

[Carnegie Express]

Horses to consider 1/10/2005:

Randwick race 9 #13 Fumble

3rd at $3.10 (bet taken with on track bookie)

Belmont race 2 #8 Stormy Gale

unplaced

Belmont race 5 #7 Local Legend

2nd at $1.60

outlay $150

Return $117.50

accumulative -$32.50

[Carnegie Express]

Horse to consider 7/10/2005:

Doomben race 6 #1 Allambie

Horse to consider 8/10/2005

Belmont race 5 #9 Modaney

[Carnegie Express]

Horse to consider 8/10/2005

Belmont race 5 #9 Modaney

3rd at $1.40

outlay $50

Return $35

accumulative -$47.50

[Carnegie Express]

Horses to consider 15/10/2005:

Belmont Park race 6 # 9 Local Legend

Eagle Farm race 6 # 12 Minassi

Eagle Farm race 7 # 4 Naval Seal

Morphettville race 2 # 1 Oahu

Randwick race 5 # 1 Hit the Road

Randwick race 9 # 6 Pin Up

[Carnegie Express]

Horses to consider 15/10/2005:

Belmont Park race 6 # 9 Local Legend

unplaced

Eagle Farm race 6 # 12 Minassi

unplaced

Eagle Farm race 7 # 4 Naval Seal

unplaced

Morphettville race 2 # 1 Oahu

no bet as started $2.00. Won

Randwick race 5 # 1 Hit the Road

unplaced

Randwick race 9 # 6 Pin Up

no net as started $2.50. Finished 3rd

outlay $200

Return $0

accumulative -$247.50

[Carnegie Express]

Horses to consider 22/10/2005:

Belmont race 5 # 6 City of Ruins

Rosehill race 1 # 4 Doubloon

Rosehill race 4 # 7 Riverine

Rosehill race 8 # 3 Bently Biscuit

[Carnegie Express]

Horse to consider 22/10/2005:

Belmont race 5 # 6 City of Ruins

Rosehill race 8 # 3 Bently Biscuit

Moonee Valley race 9 # 1 Perlin

[Carnegie Express]

Horse to consider 22/10/2005:

Belmont race 5 # 6 City of Ruins

no bet as was under $3.50. Result won. $2.90 $1.70

Rosehill race 8 # 3 Bently Biscuit

no bet as was under $3.50. Result won. $1.70 $1.20

Moonee Valley race 9 # 1 Perlin

no bet as failed CE rule 5 which was picked up yesterday. Also started under $3.50 and finished out of a place.

outlay $0

Return $0

accumulative -$247.50

[Carnegie Express]

no horses to consider this weekend.

[Carnegie Express]

Horse to consider 1/11/2005:

Flemington race 3 # 1 Brace Lancer

Eagle Farm race 1 # 3 La Bella Mer

Morphettville race 7 # 8 Oahu

[Carnegie Express]

Horse to consider 1/11/2005:

Flemington race 3 # 1 Brace Lancer

no bet as was under $3.50. Result third at $1.40

Eagle Farm race 1 # 3 La Bella Mer

no bet as was under $3.50. Result won. $2.10 $1.40

Morphettville race 7 # 8 Oahu

no bet as was under $3.50. Result unplaced.

outlay $0

Return $0

accumulative -$247.50

[Carnegie Express]

Horse to consider 5/11/2005:

Flemington race 4 # 1 Zipping

Flemington race 9 # 18 Barricades

Randwick race 2 # 3 Rationalize

Randwick race 9 # 3 Triple Dee

[Privateer]

Hi C.E.

Your method has the basis of being "doable" but I respectfully offer the following considerations and thoughts:

Perhaps only bet on Metro events?

The "within 4 lengths" theory is one of the most over rated around. You are better off considering a horse that finished in the first 4 last start regardless of lengths from the winner.

Ruling out apprentices means missing a lot of good value bets.

Barrier positions are not overly important in the overall scheme of race results. People will point out that numbers 1 - 5 have the highest strike rate but there are always horses in barriers 1 - 5. There are not always horses in barrier 10+ because field sizes determine this stat.

If you want to bet 50 units, try 15 x 35 maybe. Even 20 x 30.

Have a look at runners listed in the newspaper market between and including $3.50 & $11.00.

Have a play around with your method and try and refine it here and there.

Good luck

Privateer

[Carnegie Express]

Thanks for the advice. I have taken some on board an amended my original rules as I was of the same belief yet wanted to let it play for a while. Comments:

Perhaps only bet on Metro events?

Yes, great idea and one that I have adopted.

The "within 4 lengths" theory is one of the most over rated around. You are better off considering a horse that finished in the first 4 last start regardless of lengths from the winner.

Perhaps, but it also a nice filter so will choose to keep it.

Ruling out apprentices means missing a lot of good value bets.

Very true but two fold, one it is a good filter and secondly an apprentice is an apprentice. I would much rather $50 on Beadman than Pearson. Experience is worth it's weight. A fortnight ago I took a risk and backed the John Hawkes trained Barricades. The jockey went hammer and tong on the thing and it was a spent force halfway down the straight. I am not looking for value but consistency.

Barrier positions are not overly important in the overall scheme of race results. People will point out that numbers 1 - 5 have the highest strike rate but there are always horses in barriers 1 - 5. There are not always horses in barrier 10+ because field sizes determine this stat.

Again, this is true but works as a great filter. This is not a concrete rule though. In an eight horse field I would have no problems taking a horse that had drawn barrier 8. In a sixteen horse field I would rule out a horse drawing barrier 10. As said above, I mainly looking for consistency rather than value. Granted I may find a $4.00 place horse but I may not.

If you want to bet 50 units, try 15 x 35 maybe. Even 20 x 30.

This was an original plan that I was going to try but then I guess I got greedy and went evens each way. Last week I changed it to $15 a win and $35 and lo and behold I backed Love and Money in Brisbane for my first win. That is the way it goes though. Had I originally started this way I would probably be doing better.
Have a look at runners listed in the newspaper market between and including $3.50 & $11.00.

I have changed to horses over $2.50 as I found I had missed a few that won at odds of between $2.50 and $3.50

I am not going to post here any more but will pop in and share my results if I am going OK. For those that post on the msn forum the link is http://groups.msn.com/TheNewHorseRacingCommunityForum/systemsstaking.msnw?action=get_message&mview=0&ID_Message=332400&LastModified=4675547415916044933

Thanks for the advice.