MIDDLE DISTANCE BLUES system

[crash]

Now that spring racing is sprung, I thought I'd put up this middle distance system of mine for those interested. It's a goody.

For Syd. Adl., Brisb.and Melb., Metro any day.

1. 3yrs. old and up [exclude 6yr. olds and up as contenders], 1400 to 2240m.
2. Must have had 3 runs in and be in barrier 1 to 7.
3. PP price between $3 and $9 [can use any reasonable source].
4. Last start 18 days or less.
5. If good or dead track must have won in either.
6. If slow or heavy track must have won in either
7. If more than one contender choose the lower TAB number.

Tentative runners for tomorrow using odds and condt's from the Winning Post [excluding scratchings] are:

Syd.
R3/4 Wild Queen
R4/5 Dream Ballad
R5/8 Wild Iris
R7/5 Lotteria
R8/4 Media
Melb.
R5/4 Vision and Power
R6/1 Pinezero
R8/15 Dizelle
R10/4 Niconero
Adl.
R4/4 Iceland
R5/1 Clearview Bay
Brisb.
R1/2 Rampant Lion

good luck.

PS. If I've made any mistakes, I'm sure someone will let me know [thanks] :-)

[Sportz]

2. Must have had 3 runs in and be in barrier 1 to 7.


Crash,

Not having a go at your system here, but why barrier 1-7? I've noticed that a lot of other systems also use barrier 1-7. Why??? Why should barrier 7 do so much better than barrier 8? It makes no sense.

[wesmip1]

Sportz,

My guess is that being barrier 8 means you have already given up several meters at the jump on the first few barriers. This may just be a mental thing more than a statistical thing.

Another reason is that there are 7 more horses that could get caught up in front of you IF they all jump at the same speed. I don't see this as being too much of a problem for a horse that can get away quick enough. Being in the outside barriers sometimes means falling behind till the straight, which can be an advantage or disadvantage.

As a disadvantage it means you might have to go wide on the turn to get a clear run and worst of all you might not get a clear run if there are 18 horses in front of you all side by side.

These are just my thoughts and have no scientific proof behind them. Good horses in outside barriers will still win.

Thanks

[crash]

Thanks for the input.

I'm not sure who it was, but there was published in this forum by a very respected and astute contributor here, someone with one of those vast data bases, published the averages for winning barriers. Barrier 1-7 was where the action was on average [barrier 8 is where the winners start to slide]. Beyond that, sure there is the horse in the outside barrier that gets up now and then at great odds etc. but what I am trying to do here is produce potential winners at the best frequency possible. I'm not trawling for exceptions and I know there are plenty of them. Win the war not the battle is always my war-cry.

[Sportz]

Crash,

As I said, I'm not having a go at you or this system. It's just that I've seen many systems that use barriers 1-7 and it just doesn't seem to make much sense to me. Why should barrier 7 be successful and barrier 8 not? I suppose if you're making a rule regarding barriers, you have to have a cutoff point somewhere. I just can't quite work out why it's 7.

If someone can reproduce some figures regarding barriers, it would be appreciated.

[crash]

Well I think my answer is in my post Sportz but I'd still listen to any criticism from you anyway so don't fret it. I'd like to see those figures again too. Can't remember who presented them. Party, Bagman, Chrome or someone as well known here that I have great respect for anyway.

All thing said and done, I think the system has produced a very nice line up of possible winners. I've made enough off this asystem in the past to afford an OS holiday for the handbrake and your's truly.

Then I believed in keeping good system off this forum. Now I'm experimenting with a Dr.Pergolas theory, give it a couple of bad weeks and the fireflies skip to the next new thing. In other words I don't believe a winning system that is published affects prices. That is why I have put up 2 systems and anybody who's been around these traps knows that I generally don't put up tips or systems. I'm testing a theory and thats all. If anyone can make hay along the way, well and good. Both of my systems are from my top draw and if I expose myself to ridicule if they happen to flame out, I'm big enough to handle the jibes from the back row.

[La Mer]

Well I think my answer is in my post Sportz but I'd still listen to any criticism from you anyway so don't fret it. I'd like to see those figures again too. Can't remember who presented them. Party, Bagman, Chrome or someone as well known here that I have great respect for anyway..

Crash, not saying barriers can not be important, but any drop off in strike rate by being drawn wide is more than offset by higher SP/tote returns.

And the reason is not hard to see - because people like you come up with systems or other selection methods that disregard horses coming from wide barriers and it's a fatal flaw.

[crash]

I'll look into that La Mer. I hear a voice in my head that says 'yeah. yeah he's right", but I would like to see some figures from someone who could confirm that with Stats. over a median, taking into account my intuitive [perhaps] road regarding that issue. I never mind being wrong when happy with the evidence. It's to my benefit $ wise.

[jose]

Good stuff Crash. It actually sounds similar to something I was doing a while ago, it went something like this:

1.Races 1500 and upwards
2.Only look at the first 4 lines of betting from Fri Coureir Mail.
3.Back the horse that had the most recent start.
4.If equal back the shortest PP

The theory being that if the horse was going OK the trainer would back it up reasonably quickly. The PP market will sort out the class/fitness/recent form etc.

This was actually showing a profit of 25%+ over a year or so, but it went through a pretty bad patch and I cut my bet in half, as you say some of us just won't stick.

Apologies for not posting it another thread and taking up so much of yours.

[Carnegie Express]

Crash, how much are the bets placed on each? Do you keep them the same or fluctuate? Will be keen to see your results.

[brave chief]

Crash,

As I said, I'm not having a go at you or this system. It's just that I've seen many systems that use barriers 1-7 and it just doesn't seem to make much sense to me. Why should barrier 7 be successful and barrier 8 not? I suppose if you're making a rule regarding barriers, you have to have a cutoff point somewhere. I just can't quite work out why it's 7.

If someone can reproduce some figures regarding barriers, it would be appreciated.

I remember reading in some book that barriers 1-6 win proportionally more than their fair share of races, eg:

say, B1 represents 7.2% of all runners in races, but wins 7.9% of all races.

From barrier 7 onwards it begins to fall away.

I'll see if i can dig the figures up

[Carnegie Express]

That would be great Brave Chief as I am road testing a system with barriers 1-7 too. I know why I chose those barriers but can't explain. It has been proven somewhere so if you can dig them out that'd be really helpful.

[blocka]

For Sydney Metro racing from 1/1/2003

<TABLE borderColor=#3e6901 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=336 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>Barrier

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>Wins

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>Starts

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>StrikeRate

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>ROI

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>1

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>283

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2615

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.82%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>93.92%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>2

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>280

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2615

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.71%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>65.54%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>3

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>286

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2614

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.94%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>64.83%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>4

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>283

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2614

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.83%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>72.97%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>5

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>283

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2600

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.88%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>78.89%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>6

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>255

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2558

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>9.97%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>79.52%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>7

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>235

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2443

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>9.62%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>72.54%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>8

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>200

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2235

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>8.95%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>75.77%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>9

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>175

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1933

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>9.05%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>66.96%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>10

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>125

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1528

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>8.18%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>60.42%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>11

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>92

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1120

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>8.21%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>74.42%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>12

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>65

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>755

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>8.61%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>103.39%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>13

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>28

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>408

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>6.86%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>78.95%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>14

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>13

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>246

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>5.28%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>56.71%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>15

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>8

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>79

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.13%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>205.38%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>16

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>4

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>49

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>8.16%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>105.10%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>17

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>15

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>6.67%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>73.33%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>18

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>11

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>9.09%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>190.91%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>19

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>3

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>20

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>3

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[blocka]

For Melbourne Metro from 1/1/2003

<TABLE borderColor=#396901 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=336 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>Barrier

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>Wins

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>Starts

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>StrikeRate

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>ROI

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>1

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>281

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2739

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.26%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>74.41%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>2

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>277

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2739

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.11%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>63.18%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>3

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>270

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2741

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>9.85%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>65.04%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>4

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>274

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2737

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.01%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>71.11%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>5

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>269

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2726

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>9.87%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>62.55%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>6

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>289

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2686

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.76%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>72.21%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>7

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>270

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2586

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.44%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>76.25%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>8

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>213

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2408

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>8.85%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>63.79%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>9

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>201

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2134

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>9.42%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>75.17%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>10

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>140

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1773

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>7.90%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>69.20%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>11

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>108

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1388

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>7.78%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>72.80%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>12

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>76

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>990

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>7.68%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>64.12%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>13

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>41

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>652

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>6.29%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>67.14%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>14

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>15

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>430

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>3.49%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>41.22%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>15

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>18

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>262

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>6.87%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>102.67%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>16

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>149

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.67%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>3.69%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>17

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>8

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>18

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>6

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>16.67%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>166.67%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>19

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>3

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>20

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>3

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Barriers 21+ excluded due to post length..

[Carnegie Express]

G'Day Blocka, barrier 9's results very interesting!

[crash]

We have to be very careful when interpreting those standard barrier figures [and thanks for printing them Blocka].

What looks obvious on the surface isn't exactly so. How many races are there with 16 to 20 runners during a year's racing ? Barriers 1-7 get more use than any other barriers.

The figures I saw were barrier stats for various race sizes. The differences were small but when it comes to say a field with 16 runners [common during spring] the inside 7 get more wins. I remember that much. The outside barrier [jockey can keep out of trouble] like Le Mer suggested, might pay handsomely for itself though. I haven't seen any evidence but I get a feeling he is probably right.

A system with a rule of must be in barrier 1-7 or the outside barrier might have some worth. I like it.

Generally, trainer attitude seem to be that up to barrier 7 are good and outside that are lousy. A horse's individual running style might suit either being inside or out. Different tracks and different distances on them, all would have different alley win stats., but when working out system rules, we are after what's best overall.

[w924]

Great thread guys.

I sacked barrier draws, as a factor in my methods, a long time ago...A scan look over the tables that Blocka has kindly posted doesn't change my opinion one bit.

Look at the stats for barrier 2 in melb and one can see that its actually slightly worse than barrier 8 for ROI..on these stats in both venues Barrier 2 looks rather ordinary imo.

Obviously, barriers 5 and upwards often become the outside barrier in many fields, Those who follow Dale's "outsider" method posted on this forum are well aware that the outside barriers have their fair share of winners ..often at big odds..and as a punter, winning odds do matter.

It is a given that an outside barrier draw means that horse is going to cover more ground than many of its rivals, and may have to use early speed to get to the fence, or drop back to cross over..yet despite this they still get up,. When beaten into 2nd place, however, it is very easy for us to blame the wide draw for its defeat...correctly or incorrectly.

"A system with a rule of must be in barrier 1-7 or the outside barrier might have some worth. I like it."

Food for thought there Crash..or maybe ..any barrier draw , providing that it is isnt 2 :)

Ive noticed lately that the 2nd barrier draw in from the outside has been going ok lately..there have been a few races where the two outside barrier horses have fought out the finish and grabbed 1st and 2nd...

for your system CRash, your own existing barrier rule seems to work, if your results are anything to go by, so I can imagine your reluctance to tweak it.

Would be awesome to find out if the omission of the barrier draw rule altogether, (or the inclusion of outside barrier rule) would further improve, either your strike rate, or perhaps more importantly, ..p.o.t.

[blocka]

Here is the Sydney metro from 1/1/2003. This time only including horses in the market @ <= $10. To me it shows the change is S/R and ROI is not statiscally significant and why I don't tend to worry too much about barriers in general.

<TABLE borderColor=#156901 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=336 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>Barrier

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>Wins

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>Starts

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>StrikeRate

</TD><TD width="20%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 height=16>ROI

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>1

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>230

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1262

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>18.23%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>88.75%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>2

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>241

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1291

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>18.67%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>80.70%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>3

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>256

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1306

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>19.60%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>87.43%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>4

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>241

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1301

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>18.52%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>82.98%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>5

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>237

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1253

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>18.91%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>85.17%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>6

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>204

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1189

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>17.16%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>79.99%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>7

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>194

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>1125

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>17.24%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>82.14%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>8

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>158

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>948

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>16.67%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>81.81%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>9

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>143

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>820

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>17.44%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>89.07%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>10

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>108

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>567

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>19.05%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>101.99%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>11

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>65

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>378

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>17.20%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>92.99%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>12

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>46

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>249

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>18.47%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>110.29%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>13

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>22

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>111

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>19.82%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>121.74%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>14

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>7

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>65

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>10.77%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>68.46%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>15

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>4

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>13

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>30.77%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>209.62%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>16

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>2

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>12

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>16.67%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>112.50%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>17

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>3

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD></TR><TR><TD width="20%" height=16>18

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>3

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD><TD width="20%" height=16>0.00%

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[crash]

924:
"Would be awesome to find out if the omission of the barrier draw rule altogether, (or the inclusion of outside barrier rule) would further improve, either your strike rate, or perhaps more importantly, ..p.o.t."

Well I hate to disappoint you 924 but that barrier rule is an addition I made to this system a long time ago. It was an improvement.

We should remember that the barrier figures here are probably from 1 Melb. metro track only [Flemington Blocka?] and not all 4 of them. They certainly don't represent all Metro tracks in all states. Those big Brisbane tracks would show a very different story and try outside barriers at tiny Rosehill track in Syd. !!

I can't confirm the outside barrier plus 1-7 idea, but I'm going to keep an eye on it as I really do like it.

One rule I am thinking of including though [to both my systems] is: 'ignore the race when there is a very strong under $3 PP favorite competing against your selection'. Makes good sense with Syd.R4 Pendragon at $2.40 and R5/1 Mummify at $2. They might get rolled, but in normal punting [doing the form] I always ignore those races.

[blocka]

crash, the barrier data includes all metro tracks for the indicated state.

[KennyVictor]

Crash, not saying barriers can not be important, but any drop off in strike rate by being drawn wide is more than offset by higher SP/tote returns.


I agree with you absolutely La Mer. I have added barrier draw figures to a couple of successful ratings systems and found in both cases that I have had a small increase in winners but a decrease in POT.
If anyone is interested I found that races with less than 8 runners weren't significantly affected by the barrier draw and for over 8 runners the best factor to use was 0.25Kg per barrier position. This didn't differentiate between different courses or distances and that is where any significant gains from barrier assessment must surely come. Barrier draws are complex beasts before you even take into account how a race will be run but overall as La Mer indicated over rated by the punter.

KV

[La Mer]

Results of test back to 1 Jan 04, metro only, Saturdays only, good and dead tracks only.

Including barriers 1 to 7 only
WIN
Races Bet : 685
Races Won : 231
S.R./Race : 33.7%
Outlay ($): 1208.00
Return : 1247.80
$ Profit : 39.80
% P.O.T. : 3.3%

All barriers
WIN
Races Bet : 779
Races Won : 294
S.R./Race : 37.7%
Outlay ($): 1680.00
Return : 1587.30
$ Profit : -92.70
% P.O.T. : -5.5%

[crash]

Interesting figures Le Mer.

I'm tweaking these rules to include: "ignore races with a strong PP favorite under $3". That would have at least dropped out Syd. R4, R5 and R8 and left a win in R3 Wild Queen $5.70. There were 2 scratchings: Adl. R4/4 and Melb. R5/4. That would have been 7 bets instead of 10 and a small loss rather than a canning. Also I thought Melb. was Slow not Good when I put up the runners, so the Melb. selection would have been different [no better result though].

Get rid of Group [and Cups] races and the system might have a life. Group races need their own system I think. My original sytem excluded them and I only added them at the last minute [big mistake as there was too many Group bets] because I get hounded every time I say Group or Cup races are lousy prospects in a system.

*For Syd. Adl., Brisb.and Melb., Metro any day.

1. Exclude Group and Cup races and races with a strong Favorite less than $3 PP.
2. 3yrs. old and up [exclude 6yr. olds and up as contenders], 1400 to 2240m.
3. Must have had 3 runs in and be in barrier 1 to 7.
4. PP price between $3 and $9 [can use any reasonable source].
5. Last start 18 days or less.
6. If good or dead track must have won in either.
7. If slow or heavy track must have won in either
8. If more than one contender choose the lower TAB number.

Looks like my original rules now :-)

[crash]

Blocka: "crash, the barrier data includes all metro tracks for the indicated state."

Sorry Blocka, I must have been having a 'senior's moment'. I didn't notice the Syd. figures along with the Melb. figures. Thanks.