3 Horse Plan Plan

[Bhagwan]

Heres a simple plan that has some fantastic days.

Betting 3 horses a race.

We target the first horse in TAB market order that is paying $4.10+ ,plus the next two horses in the market order after the $4.10 horse.

One of the 3 horses must be $7.50+ at jump time before it can be a bet.

Bet 1 unit on the $4.10+ horse & 2 units on the other 2 longer priced horses , keep the bet the same for all races.
Total O/L for each race 5 units

Because we are betting 3 horses a race , the runs of outs should not be too long.

It seems to work very well in races with 8 & less runners.
It strikes some amazing long priced winners from time to time.

Check it out on past results.

Cheers.

[harry_boodes]

Hey Bhagwin,


Why would you only have 1 unit on the short priced horse?

I would say if you had a $4.10, $5.00 and a $7.50+ a more profitable staking plan would be:

$4.10 x 2.5 units
$5.00 x 1.5 units
$7.50 x 1 units

best case $4.10 wins
worst case (exc a blowout!) $5.00 or $7.50+ wins, of course that changes dependant on the actual price of the $7.50+ horse.

More or less a dutch betting system.

Harry

[crash]

The idea is to always have the largest bet amount on the largest underlay Any winning runner at $4.10+ is an underlay. The larger the winning odds the bigger the [true] underlay.

[partypooper]

Bhagwan, I like that one, much better than 2nd, 3rd, 4th pre-post favs, many thanks!

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for your input Harry & Crash.

The idea here is to try & obtain a 2/1 advantage on successful bets if the $7.50+ horses get up rather than even money outcome regardless of which one wins.

If one had a situation of say one winner out of 3 bets , one would usually be still behind if using traditional Dutching because the odds would approx. be equivalant to 1/1 outcome.

The idea here is if our $7.50 selection gets up we should end up with an equivalant 2/1 result.

I feel it would be a stronger bet , to make the lowest payer of the 3 be treated as a saver bet.

I guess one would feel sick if the lower payer of the 3 got up all day & one had treated it as a saver all day, but that is not normally the case.


Cheers.

[harry_boodes]

Bhagwin,

Ok lets see sale Race 1 in 25 mins, the selections at this stage would be:

13 @ $4.70 (1 unit)
10 @ $10.10 (2)
1 @ $12.50 (2)


Gonna have little something on them, unless the prices change just b4 the jump
good luck

Harry

[crash]

Sale race 1: 12/8/13 Winner paid $2,80.
Race was a maiden though and short favorites regularly get up.

I really like the methods idea though, but I'd rule out maidens and betting against a less than $3 fav.
5 units across 3 bets against a short fav. might not be a good idea.

Races at Sale: 2 [12.80w], 4[11.70w] and 7[4,40w] would have been a nice collect for the day and I wish I'd used real money. I missed the results for the last, race 8.

Race 3 was another maiden so I left it out.

[Nigel]

Nice plan Bhagwan. Probably needs a bit of tweaking along the lines that crash suggested but a fun way to bet the way it stands all the same. I looked at the idea yesterday and with betting on selected races at $1 on each selection with a progression of up $1 after a loss it did quite nicely.

[crash]

Bagman,

A little query is what happens if the next 2 horses up from the $4.10 selection are both under $7.50 is it a no bet race ?

[Bhagwan]

Hi Crash,
If one sights the rules again , it clearly states.

"One of the 3 horses must be $7.50+ at jump time before it can be a bet."

SO

There must be a $7.50+ runner among those 3 runners , otherwise ,it`s a no bet race.

Cheers.

[TESTAROSSA]

Just had a check through the dogs tonight using the NSW TAB and results were:

3 Dog Plan Results:

Thursday 6/10: +28.30

Dapto: -10.10

Sandown: +37.20

Albion Park: +11.70

Angle Park: +44.30

Bendigo: -30.20

Cessnock: +42.80

Hobart: -45.40

Geelong: -22.00

Not to bad :)

Also checked the last few days with the horses and it lost BIG on all occasions :(

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Testarossa,
Thanks for your input.
Your findings look interesting

The thing that kills a plan like this is if the dame Favs getting up all day.
In the last few days a lot of short payers have been getting up one after the ****** other , its quite amazing.
Its just one of those fases that occures in raceing from time to time.

If one had a system based aroud Favs , it would be haveing something like a 45% SR over the last few days , but we all know these go in cycles, then change & go the other way , the 30% Fav stat will not be denied.


I guess one would be best off trying to target the races where the Fav has a chance of falling over .

As said previously ,it seems to work well on races with 8 & less runners for some reason based on past results.