Caulfield Cup Field

[Raw Instinct]

Hey guys not sure how many of you have looked at this but the likes of Confectioner and Sir Dex are in danger of not making the field or at maybe at best being emergencies. This is how the order sits right now

1. Perlin (Excempt) (but I think it is doubtful he will go to the CC)
2. El Segundo (Excempt) (question mark still would be very surprised if he doesn't run)
3. Leica Falcon (Excempt)
4. Mummify (sounds like he will be there would be better suited in the CP I thought)
5. Dizelle
6. First Charter (pulled up badly yesterday spring is over most likely)
7. Hollow Bullet
8. Plastered
9. Razkalla (Godolphin are saying they will run only one horse in the CC I think this is the one)
10. Fight Your Corner (see above)
11. Demerger
12. Eye Popper (know nothing about this one don't even know if it is here would imagine it is a runner anyway)
13. Portland Singa
14. Stella Grande
15. Vouvray
16. Wild Iris
17. Count Ricardo
18. Irish Darling
19. Railings
20. Bazelle
21. Carte Diamond
22. Fantastic Love (Godolphin again)
23. Lachlan River
24. Natural Blitz
25. Sir Dex
26. Confectioner
27. Kindjhal
28. Grey Song
29. Hugs Dancer
30. Moscow Ballet
31. Stormhill
32. Swift Tango
33. Activation
34. Free At Last

The horses I have in bold are either ones I have doubts whether they are even in the country or doubtful to start in the race due to poor form gone for a spell or injured. The main ones I amnot sure about are Carte Diamond, Eye Popper, Irish Darling and Count Ricardo not sure if the 1st 2 are in the country and not sure if the last 2 are going towards the cup.

[Raw Instinct]

At best I see Sir Dex being about the 18th runner and Confectioner at 19th and I think that is absolute best case scenario worst case they get nowhere near it.

[Raw Instinct]

7- CARLTON DRAUGHT CAULFIELD CUP 2400 M
Of $2515000 Of $2500000 and $15000 trophy. 1st $1500000 and trophy of $15000, 2nd $375000, 3rd $200000, 4th $110000, 5th $90000, 6th $75000, 7th $75000, 8th $75000. Starter Subsidy: $200 for non-prize earning runners. (GROUP 1). No allowances for apprentices.
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No Horse Trainer Ballot Wgt Pen Rating
1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman 57
2 FIRST CHARTER (GB) David Hayes 55.5
3 RAZKALLA (USA) Saeed Bin Suroor 55
4 FIGHT YOUR CORNER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 54.5
5 EYE POPPER (JPN) Izumi Shimizu 54
6 PLASTERED Lindsey Smith 54
7 PERLIN (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 53.5
8 CARTE DIAMOND (USA) Brian Ellison 53
9 FANTASTIC LOVE (USA) Saeed Bin Suroor 53
10 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison 53
11 SIR DEX Gregory Hickman 53
12 CONFECTIONER David Hayes 52.5
13 KINDJHAL (FR) David Hayes 52.5
14 STELLA GRANDE Lee Freedman 52.5
15 COUNT RICARDO Stephen Theodore 52
16 GREY SONG Tom Hughes 52
17 HUGS DANCER (FR) David Hayes 52
18 MOSCOW BALLET (IRE) David Hayes 52
19 SWIFT TANGO (IRE) David Hayes 52
20 RAILINGS John Hawkes 52 1.0
21 DEMERGER Danny O'Brien 51.5
22 DIZELLE John Hawkes 51.5
23 HOLLOW BULLET John McArdle 51.5
24 LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) John Morrisey 51.5
25 PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) Neville McBurney 51.5
26 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody 51.5
27 WILD IRIS Guy Walter 51.5
28 MR SANDGROPER David Edwards 51
29 SHOW BARRY John Rattle 51
30 BAZELLE (NZ) Paul Jenkins 50.5
31 CHARNWOOD GREEN Chris Wood 50.5
32 RIZON Cliff Brown 50.5
33 STORMHILL Tim Martin 50.5
34 ACTIVATION (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 50
35 FREE AT LAST (NZ) Alan Mathews 49.5
36 IRISH DARLING Tony Vasil 49.5
37 LORD OF LORDS Stephen Theodore 49.5
38 MR CELEBRITY (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 49.5
39 RUNON Steven Roberts 49.5
40 SARRERA Michael Moroney 49.5
41 SHROGGINET (NZ) Colin Alderson 49.5
42 SPECIAL SCENE Dan O'Sullivan 49.5
43 UPRIZE (NZ) Lee Freedman 49.5
44 VIZ VITAE (NZ) Murray Baker 49.5
45 EL SEGUNDO (NZ) Colin Little 49.5 1.5
46 KAMSKY Bart Cummings 48.5
47 LEICA FALCON Richard Freyer 48

[Raw Instinct]

The weights above could change by 1.5kgs if Mummify doesn't run also as far as I know the 1.5kg penalty beside El Segundos name is inculded in his weight as is Railings. I did hear that El Segundo will recieve a weight penalty for yesterdays win but it willnot count towards the CC only the MC.

[Sportz]

2. El Segundo (Excempt) (question mark still would be very surprised if he doesn't run)


I know. I'm thinking the same. :(

[maverick1993]

I hope Confectioner runs in the cox,,,i have him with Makybe (MC) at 105/1

i thought it was a bad ride on him yesterday that cost him..the horse is flying ..

[Sportz]

I know. I'm thinking the same. :(

Oops, I'm sorry Raw. I'm afraid I didn't read your post properly. :o

I thought you said that you WOULDN'T be very surprised if El Segundo doesn't run.

Personally, I really hope you're right that they decide to run.

[brave chief]

What an absolute joke if Confectioner doesn't get a start in the Cup - one of the in-form WFA horses in the country. Both his last two runs have been the best Cup trails so far. Promote him into the field for God's sake.

Can anyone explain how all these overseas horses somehow manage to find themselves at or near the top of the order of entry??

Also, no way out-of-former's like Stella Grande & Hollow Bullet deserve a run in the Cup based on their Spring performances.

If it was up to me Confectioner, Railings, Stormhill, Lachlan River, Sir Dex, Mr Celebrity & Activation all should be promoted into the field if the connections wanted to run. They are all in form and would make for a great race. To hell with the imports.

[Sportz]

Can anyone explain how all these overseas horses somehow manage to find themselves at or near the top of the order of entry??


Because they are usually higher weighted than the Australian horses purely because our handicappers generally think they're better than those racing here. Apart from horses which have won races which exempted them, the order of entry is based on weight compared to weight for age. This means that often horses which you think are very well weighted, are actually TOO well weighted in that it means they struggle to get into the field.

I'm pretty sure Confectioner will be put into the field. It would be a joke if it wasn't. The last time it happened, it was the English stayer Taufan's Melody which went on to win the cup at huge odds. It would be a huge double standard if they used their powers to include an English horse, but didn't do the same here with Confectioner.

[brave chief]

It would be a huge double standard if they used their powers to include an English horse, but didn't do the same here with Confectioner.

Too right

[saratoga samchaz]

Pretty much a joke if Sir Dex doesn't get in after the prep races he has run. He's beaten some very good ones and only has the one bad race as I recall(last out).

[Raw Instinct]

SS it is a joke if either of those horses don't make the field they are both top quality stayers and are both very realistic chances in this race but if they both get in they are only just going to scrape in.

[Sportz]

I really think that they should do everything in their power to get the best in form horses into the big races. For example, perhaps the first 4 or 5 horses home in the Turnbull Stks and Yalumba Stks plus the winners of a couple of other races on Oct 1 & 8 should all be exempt from the ballot. It would be ridiculous if Confectioner and/or Sir Dex don't get in and some of the other non performing qualified horses do.

[Tenacious Spirit]

No Sir Dex has not run a bad race. His last start was good. It is a joke if Sir Dex does not get into the field. He should be in the top 4 in the betting not struggling for a spot in the field. Our WFA ranks are poor, and he has stood up as a shining light as has Confectioner. Aside from these two, give some of the youngsters a chance, railings etc, rather than including horses like plodder bullet. I wouldn;t have a clue about how the process and am just putting forward this opinion from a fair/unfair rationale, but what has plod bullet done to get into the field? Count Ricardo, Grey Song, Swift Tango, Moscow ballet the list goes on of hacks who shouldn;t be there.

[Sportz]

Well, basically it works like this: The winners of a handful of races are exempt from the ballot and can run as long as their owners/trainers want them to. They're the first three on the order of entry list - El Segundo, Leica Falcon, Perlin. Then, the rest of the order is based purely on the weight assigned to them by the handicapper. This whole system seems a bit silly really because it's all based on the handicapper's original opinion of the horses a couple of months before the race is actually run.

The higher up the horse's handicap weight is compared to weight for age, the more likely it is to gain a start. That's why owners/trainers will often actually want their horses to be given a penalty by the handicapper after winning one of the lead up feature races. It's because it will raise their horse up the order of entry.

WFA for Hollow Bullet is 54 whereas WFA for Confectioner and Sir Dex is 58. That means that on the weights, Hollow Bullet is just 2.5 kgs below WFA, and Sir Dex and Confectioner are 5 and 5.5 kgs below. That's why they're so far down the list.

Hope that explains it a bit for you.

[saratoga samchaz]

Sportz, thanks for the explanation. It does clear it up for this Yank. I also didn't see Sir Dex's last race but I thought he didn't hit the board and just ran an allowable bad one, but now knowing he didn't, it still stinks if he doesn't get in considering his recent form (that the handicappers don't consider! LOL).

[Sportz]

Yeah, nothing wrong at all with Sir Dex's last run. A good 4th and he finished ahead of Plastered, Vouvray and Dizelle which are all given excellent chances in the cup. Those three horses will all probably be more suited this week however.

[Stix]

Will the discetionary powers be used to leap frog Confectioner above 6 other horses.....?

He (Confectioner) clearly has the best case to be included..... but how do you justify burning 6 other horses and their connections - I would be absolutely ropable if I missed out...... :(

Still.... hope he runs (doubtfull).... cos my money has been on him for a long time..... :D

What do others think?

[saratoga samchaz]

Thanks about the Sir Dex finish. I wasn't sure if he just didn't fire or got a nice fourth or fifth. He really is a gamer(No Blue Collar Jack, but heh!!! LOL) and usually gives it his all. But he sure doesn't like to win by much and always gives me heart attacks. Then again he doesn't like to lose either! That's one intangible that I love in a horse, HEART. Reminds me alot of Silver Charm and Real Quiet over here in their hey day. They actually have determined that some of the best horses actually do have much larger hearts than their counterparts. SECRETARIAT-maybe the greatest of all time-no THE GREATEST- anywhere(IMO and alot of others) had a HUGE heart and that's what started the weird study in the first place.

[Oaksnaf]

They were saying Confectioner has bigger tabs on racing in the Caufield Cup because of the amount of money which has been put on the horse. Now to me they inclusion of a horse should be inconclusive of the amount of money being backed on the horse before its included or not included in the race. But that was said on Racing Retro the other night.

[Sportz]

Will the discetionary powers be used to leap frog Confectioner above 6 other horses.....?

He (Confectioner) clearly has the best case to be included..... but how do you justify burning 6 other horses and their connections - I would be absolutely ropable if I missed out...... :(


Well, I originally thought it was a clear cut case that they should be put into the field, but after listening to an interview on the radio this morning, I'm starting to think that perhaps they mightn't be. Bruce Clark from sport927 brought up something which I wasn't aware of. He said that it's not actually a case of promoting a horse above 6 others, but it's actually a case of demoting 6 horses behind that one. In other words, according to him, they have to believe that all 6 horses DON'T deserve to be there instead of simply thinking that Confectioner or Sir Dex DO. I didn't know about that interpretation.

In any case, both of those horses really should be in the field and regardless of what happens this year, I think they have to do something with the qualification rules for future years.

[Raw Instinct]

It appears now that Godolphin will pay up for 3 horses for saturday and run only 2 of them depending on whether it is a dry or wet track. If it is dry Razkalla will run if it is wet Fantastic Love will run, Personally I don't think any of them deserve a start they really are all a mob of plodders who will be flat out getting near them on saturday. Carte Diamond & Eye Popper will also both be paid up for so it doesn't look real good for either Sir Dex or Confectioner.

I have no problem having these european horses here but in Godolphins case that is BS pick 2 friggin horses and go with them don't waste a spot that could have been used for another horse when you have no intention of using it. The field size of 18 plus 3 emergenies makes it very hard for for either Sir Dex or Confectioner to get there we will all know at around 10am tomorrow.

Possible Field
1. Mummify 57kg
2. Razkalla 55kg
3. Fight Your Corner 54.5kg
4. Plastered 54kg
5. Eye Popper 54kg
6. Carte Diamond 53kg
7. Fantastic Love 53kg
8. Stella Grande 52.5kg
9. Railings 52kg
10. Dizelle 51.5kg
11. Hollow Bullet 51.5kg
12. Demerger 51.5kg
13. Portland Singa 51.5kg
14. Vouvray 51.5kg
15. Wild Iris 51.5kg
16. Bazelle 50.5kg
17. El Segundo 49.5kg
18. Leica Falcon 48kg
19. Sir Dex 53kg
20. Confectioner 52.5kg
21. Lachlan River 51.5kg

Looking at this if Godolphin do scratch one runner then Sir Dex gets a start if ofcourse this is the field I do however feel they should be made to make a decision there is to much money involved in this race for someone to be even denied a chance because of a horse who is never going to run. The other thing I have read today said that Carte Diamond maybe one of the horses on the chopping block in order to put Confectioner into the field I personally wouldn't be opposed we are talking about a horse there that has never won at G1 level which just makes me wonder why the hell is it so highly rated from what I have heard it is a glorified hurdler. Eye Popper might be the one that annoys me the most the Japanese horses should never be allowed back into the country hey have been awful, They have no guts whatsoever all they are is pace makers. I have had my say now upto the lap of the gods now.

[Chuck]

i'm pretty sure Godolphin will have people saying that the more horses he puts in, the more good horses he knocks out and doesn't have to compete with lol

[Tenacious Spirit]

Been looking into it a bit more and have changed my tune. Whilst i think Confectioner and a couple of other horses 'should' be in the field based on ability etc, they are not qualified. Rules are rules, simple as that as far as i'm concerned and based on the rules they shouldn't be in. From my understanding it is the trainers fault that confectioner isn;t in there because he has been avoiding the handicap races for fear of a penalty. Thats a risky way to get into the field and it hasn;t worked out. Bad luck. That said i thing the rules need to change, i am still pondering in what way.

[xptdriver]

Been looking into it a bit more and have changed my tune. Whilst i think Confectioner and a couple of other horses 'should' be in the field based on ability etc, they are not qualified. Rules are rules, simple as that as far as i'm concerned and based on the rules they shouldn't be in. From my understanding it is the trainers fault that confectioner isn;t in there because he has been avoiding the handicap races for fear of a penalty. Thats a risky way to get into the field and it hasn;t worked out. Bad luck. That said i thing the rules need to change, i am still pondering in what way.

Gday All

gotta agree with the above... The trainers know the route to the Caulfield Cup and other Blue Riband races for that matter.. The trainers in this case chose to ignore that route... Bugger em I say... I said the same thing when they left Free at Last out of the Melbourne Cup last year.. It was totally unfair

As for changing the rules ... Change em to take the discretion out of the picture.. Just make the trainers, if they wish their horses to run in these races, to qualify them properly... Its pretty black and white to me

[brave chief]

Carte Diamond's last 2 wins have been over the hurdles, never won a group race. Yet its weighted on 53 kg. I know nothing about Eye Popper but the Jap horses have hardly earnt respect here lately.

Irish Darling, Stella Grande & Hollow Bullet have done nothing so far this prep.

Confectioner won the G2 Craiglee first up. He won it, buts just because it's run at Flemington & not at Caulfield he's not exempt from the ballot. Maybe I'm suggesting the winners of the Craiglee & Turnbull Stks should be exempt from the ballot. Perhaps prizemoney earned from Aug 1 should be a consideration.

I just think that the race is looking pretty dodgy if the recent WFA winners are not allowed to compete, but hurdle winners & horses who havent run a place this season are.

[Sportz]

From AAP Racing And Sports:

Tuesday, 11 October 2005: A total of 26 horses have been left in Saturday's $2.5 million Caulfield Cup after final acceptances were declared today.

The final field will not be named until later today after the Melbourne Racing Club committee meets to resolve if it discretionary powers will be invoked to determine the final 18 horses plus emergencies.

The MRC is under huge pressure to include the heavily backed Confectioner in the final 18 despite the David Hayes-trained stayer remaining only equal 22nd on the order of entry after the final acceptances were declared.

Gai Waterhouse has also declared the George Main Stakes winner Mr. Celebrity as a final acceptor in the hope that the MRC committee will elevate him into the final field under the discretionary rule from his equal 25th position

The notable absentees among the qualified horses were the import First Charter, Godolphin entry Fantastic Love and Sandown Classic Count Ricardo, who was reported to have a fitness problem after he galloped on Tuesday morning.

Godolphin's other entries Razkalla and Fight Your Corner, Japan's Eye Popper and the UK stayer Carte Diamond make up the overseas contingent.

Carte Diamond is still only equal 17th on the order of entry with four other horses, his place in the final 18 now at the discretion of the MRC.

He is vying for one of the final places in the field with Bazelle, Sir Dex, Natural Blitz and Lachlan River.

Lee Freedman added to the concerns of connections with the borderline horses when he declared Stella Grande, safely in the field at equal ninth, a final acceptor.

Freedman wil also start 2003 Caulfield Cup winner Mummify.

CAULFIELD CUP FINAL ACCEPTORS

* Exempt from Ballot

1 - El Segundo*

2- Leica Falcon*

3- Mummify

4=Dizelle

4=Hollow Bullet

4=Plastered

7 Razkalla

8-Fight Your Corner

9-Demerger

9=Portland Singa

9=Eye Popper

9=Stella Grande

9=Vouvray

9=Wild Iris

15=Irish Darling

15=Railings

17=Bazelle

17=Carte Diamond

17=Lachlan River

17=Natural Blitz

17=Sir Dex

22=Confectioner

22=Kindjhal

24-Show Barry

25=Mr. Celebrity

25=Sarrera

[Sportz]

Now that I've thought about it a bit more, I tend to agree with a lot of what TS and XPT said. While I think that Confectioner & Sir Dex definitely deserve to be there on form, their trainers and owners knew what the situation was all along, so I guess that's just the way it goes.

I personally think the answer's pretty obvious. Keep the conditions exactly as they are now, but simply give an exemption to the winners of more feature leadup races during the carnival. And also remove the discretionary powers, so that everything is in black and white and everyone knows exactly where they stand.

[xptdriver]

Carte Diamond's last 2 wins have been over the hurdles, never won a group race. Yet its weighted on 53 kg. I know nothing about Eye Popper but the Jap horses have hardly earnt respect here lately.

Irish Darling, Stella Grande & Hollow Bullet have done nothing so far this prep.

Confectioner won the G2 Craiglee first up. He won it, buts just because it's run at Flemington & not at Caulfield he's not exempt from the ballot. Maybe I'm suggesting the winners of the Craiglee & Turnbull Stks should be exempt from the ballot. Perhaps prizemoney earned from Aug 1 should be a consideration.

I just think that the race is looking pretty dodgy if the recent WFA winners are not allowed to compete, but hurdle winners & horses who havent run a place this season are.

Gday Brave

kinda agreed.. about the hurdlers and such ... but... (there's always one or two) the fact remains that the trainers have avoided races which would have qualified their horses... If as you suggest that the Turnbull and Craiglee winners be exempt... fine.. write that into the rules of qualification.. but as it stands , the horses who are not qualified should be left out... Get rid of the discretion rule.. make it fair for everyone...

[Sportz]

From Racenet:

MRC force to decide the final two runners

The Melbourne Racing Club will later today be forced to decide on the last two horses into the field for Saturday’s $2.5 million Group One Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup to be run on Saturday at Caulfield after final acceptances were taken earlier today.

When final acceptances closed at 10am today, 16 of the top 19 horses in the order of entry have paid up with only Count Ricardo, Perlin and First Charter not amongst them.

This puts the MRC in the position of deciding who takes the final two positions in the field.

Amongst the horses vying for those spots are the five next in line in the order of entry that paid up this morning including Bazelle, Carte Diamond, Lachlan River, Natural Blitz and Sir Dex and to a lesser extent Confectioner who was equal 25th before final acceptances today.

Which way will the club go?

Logically thinking the club will pick two of the horses next in line in the order of entry and those two should be Lachlan River the Group One Queensland Derby winner along with the form horse and the one that’s shortest in Caulfield Cup betting markets, Sir Dex?

But all will be reveiled after 2.00pm today.

One thing is for sure, with so many more overseas raiders heading to our shores to contest our major spring handicaps [3 will contest the Caulfield Cup this year] Racing Victoria and the race clubs need to have a look at how they decide the final fields with the prospect this year of four horses with very strong form leading into the Caulfield Cup missing out on a run.

The horses referred to are, Confectioner (equal 26th prior to final acceptances), Mr Celebrity (equal 40th prior to final acceptances), Show Barry (equal 35th prior to final acceptances) and Sir Dex (equal 20th prior to final acceptances) and to a lesser extent, Activation, Bazelle, Free At Last, Lachlan River and Natural Blitz.

Especially when there are at least three Australian trained horses that have accepted and will run on Saturday, yet they are racing well below their best - Hollow Bullet, Irish Darling and Stella Grande.

I know they are all fully qualified and have every right to run but all the horses mentioned that should be in the race are also fully qualified. It all comes down to the weight allocated by the handicapper.

The question the Melbourne Race Club needs to answer is – does the club really want the best possible field for its flagship race or not?

Because this year the best possible field won’t be lining up.

By: Clinton Payne - Tuesday, 11 October 2005

[Stix]

Confectioner is Out ! :(

[Sportz]

Okay, I think this is the final field:

1. Mummify 57kg
2. Razkalla 55kg
3. Fight Your Corner 54.5kg
4. Eye Popper 54kg
5. Plastered 54kg
6. Carte Diamond 53kg
7. Sir Dex 53kg
8. Stella Grande 52.5kg
9. Railings 52kg
10. Demerger 51.5kg
11. Dizelle 51.5kg
12. Hollow Bullet 51.5kg
13. Portland Singa 51.5kg
14. Vouvray 51.5kg
15. Wild Iris 51.5kg
16. Leica Falcon 50kg
17. El Segundo 49.5kg
18. Irish Darling 49.5kg
--------------------
19. Lachlan River 51.5kg
20. Natural Blitz 53kg
21. Bazelle 50.5kg

[mecurial]

There goes my hard earned. Carte Diamond, Eye Popper and the like better absolutely put in blinding performances on the weekend.

All this does it detract interest and credibility from the race.

[brave chief]

Sir Dex made it in at least. Could have been so much better, though.

I'm sure the hurdler is a genuine winning chance, unlike Confectioner of course.

I actually backed Binding & Wild Iris in pre-post betting. WI might want some rain but got to be some chance in that race now.

[Matilda]

No quality field...Any of you disagree?.
El fav, what has he got to be fav!?. Won the Yalumba?
Plastered 2nd fav!!! Done nothing in last 2 races.
Leica Falcon 3rd fav!? Won the Edge?
Railing....Dizelle...Vouvray....

Nothing impress me lah....

[Sportz]

Brave Chief,

Not saying he's going to win or anything, but don't let the fact that Carte Diamond's won over hurdles influence your thinking. Remember, Vintage Crop won a few over the jumps too. British racing is different to us. Over there, jumps racing isn't purely for horses which are slow on the flat.

In any case, at it's last start, Carte Diamond finished a good 2nd in the Ebor Hcp which is one of the best quality staying handicap races in Britain. I think he gave about 4kgs to the winner which is a pretty fair horse. It was a good performance. He's mainly here for the Melbourne Cup, but it wouldn't be a total shock to me if he ran well this Saturday.

Anyway, here's the latest betting from TAB Sportsbet:

EL SEGUNDO $3.40
PLASTERED $5.50
LEICA FALCON $6.50
RAILINGS $11.00
DIZELLE $12.00
VOUVRAY $13.00
SIR DEX $15.00
MUMMIFY $16.00
DEMERGER $17.00
LACHLAN RIVER (1E) $26.00
PORTLAND SINGA $26.00
WILD IRIS $26.00
CARTE DIAMOND $31.00
FIGHT YOUR CORNER $35.00
HOLLOW BULLET $51.00
BAZELLE (3E) $61.00
EYE POPPER $71.00
RAZKALLA $71.00
STELLA GRANDE $81.00
IRISH DARLING $101.00
NATURAL BLITZ (2E) $101.00

[Duritz]

Loses a bit without Confectioner. If El Segundo repeats his run of the other day, he wins. End of s-s-s-story.

[Sportz]

Most Caulfield Cup runners, indeed most Caulfield Cup winners come through the Turnbull Stks and/or the Yalumba Stks. Simply exempt the first 3 placegetters in both of those races and that would make things a lot fairer I think. Confectioner would have qualified from the Turnbull for a start, so he wouldn't have even needed to run last Saturday.

[ijuandaQLD]

CONFECTIONER DOESNT DESERVE A SPOT....It's the trainers fault for the horse not getting a spot in the field... the trainers know what it takes to get a horse into the cup it is their fault for not putting the horses in the right races. horses like el segundo and leica falcon may be in it but they r because their trainers knew if they won they would be exempt and if they didnt win they didnt mind not getting in the field whereas the waterhouse and hayes have a bitch about mr celebrity and confectioner not gettin in. it is purely their fault. i agree that the field is not of the class it could be but there is nobody to blame but the trainers. fair enough the stewards could have promoted the horses into the field but then others who have earnt the right to enter the field by using the selection process to their advantage are ****ed over

[Tenacious Spirit]

Its a hard race to assess in that you have to compare weight with quality.

The turnbull looks a better race to look at than the yalumba to me. In was a weird sort of race.
El segundo's run was flattering. The chances of him getting gimme rails runs in the C cup are slim. Perlin didn;t fire a shot, confectioners chances were thwarted, FOO wasn't fully fit. I'd prefer if they didn't run him (el segundo) and put him away maybe give him an autumn campaign and target him at next year c.cup.

Mummify if the rain stays away is gonna give this a big shake. Weak race he won last time, but it was a tough on pace effort - you know he can do it, he run second fastest caulfield cup in 2003. He is proven. Can;t see anything mummify beat (ie wild iris) turning the tables.

Always have liked sir dex and am going to stick with him.

Plastered is the other one. He'll run well.

Reckon Leica Falcon's run was better than El Segundo, but he did beat a bunch of plodders. Too early?

Dizelle.Don't think shes a chance. I have been baggin her the whole way. Am going to keep potting her unless there is a deluge.

The runner i am unsure of is railings. Maybe better suited in the M cup but not sure.

There was that plunge on demerger but again would have thought she was better over 3200.

Thats my summation.

[Sportz]

8-4.05 CARLTON DRAUGHT CAULFIELD CUP 2400 M
1st $1500000, 2nd $375000, 3rd $200000, 4th $110000, 5th $90000, 6th $75000, 7th $75000, 8th $75000.

1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman D Nikolic 57
2 RAZKALLA (USA) Saeed Bin Suroor 55
3 FIGHT YOUR CORNER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor K McEvoy 54.5
4 EYE POPPER (JPN) Izumi Shimizu S Fujita 54
5 PLASTERED Lindsey Smith P J Harvey 54
6 CARTE DIAMOND (USA) Brian Ellison 53
7 SIR DEX Gregory Hickman Z Purton 53
8 STELLA GRANDE Lee Freedman N Ryan 52.5
9 RAILINGS John Hawkes G Childs 52
10 DEMERGER Danny O'Brien D Dunn 51.5
11 DIZELLE John Hawkes D Beadman 51.5
12 HOLLOW BULLET John McArdle 51.5
13 PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) Neville McBurney L Cassidy 51.5
14 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody S Seamer 51.5
15 WILD IRIS Guy Walter G Boss 51.5
16 EL SEGUNDO (NZ) Colin Little D Gauci 49.5
17 IRISH DARLING Tony Vasil D Moor (a) 49.5
18 LEICA FALCON Richard Freyer 48
19E LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) John Morrisey Steven King 51.5
20E NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison 53
21E BAZELLE (NZ) Paul Jenkins 50.5

I made a mistake with Leica Falcon's weight in an earlier post. Sorry about that.

[Raw Instinct]

Tenacious Spirit I pretty much agree with mostof what you say Dizelle looks a very good horse to pot gets to far back and hasn't been hitting the line as strongly as some others which are in this race with it. I have liked everything I have seen from Sir Dex comes down to the fact whether he can stick his head out and win one of these big ones this is his best chance. I have also been real impressed with both Vouvray & Portland Singa if either of them draw a decent gate then they are real live chances.

I finid it funny everyone has been bagging Plastered so far what alot of people forget he is an out and out stayer just really toughs it out but doesn't have a change of pace that could be his downfall I feel it will be this week I can see him running a real nice race maybe a placing just don't know if he can win it.

I really like Railings alot he has been my Meblourne Cup tip for quite sometime and he hasn't disappointed yet I am hoping he runs a good race this weekend just not win as I have doubts to whether he can win both races, The appointment of Childs is a huge bonus Beadman sometimes does have brain explosions in big races. I to wouldn't write off Mummify just yet he is to good of a horse and in good form tot totally discount.

[Duritz]

Portland Singa a great each way bet if it draws well and pace on, best value of field by far. Dizelle is a moral Melbourne Cup day. That mare will FLY over 3200 and remember, Hawkes all along has had that race and that race only in mind. People potting her on lack of zip for this prep compared to last must remember that last prep she was a lot fresher, this prep he's setting her for 3200. Look for a massive closing run over the 2400 for the first time this prep on Sat. She was a huge run last Saturday, checked badly at about the 200 and really hit the line well late. I'm tipping she'll be single figure Melb Cup odds by Monday next week and perhaps even favourite after a huge run in the Caulfield. May win it.

[Oaksnaf]

Well ive got a double of Plastered CC/Demerger MC at a handy 80-1 so ill be rooting for Plastered on the weekend. lol (i typed tommorow). But there are two light weight horses whcih im sure everyone wil be following with a keen eye, Leica Falcon and El Segundo. Whether they can master the pace in an 18 horse field giving them room for their runs will be interesting. I hope to see Demerger running on late to put him right on prime time for a Melbourne Cup performance.

But the way a few people have been talking about Railings, could become the silent killer.

[Duritz]

But if they're talking about it, it ain't silent! :)

[bl4dez]

any1 know wats happening with confectioner?

[Oaksnaf]

But if they're talking about it, it ain't silent! :)
Yeh well, its not creating the tabloid attention as most of the other horses are. Bah maybe there was no need for the silent comment.

[ijuandaQLD]

what does everyone reckon about how the race will be run. how much speed will there be up front?

[Duritz]

Pace will be good because if nothing leads, Mummify will. He won't want to crawl along, he'll want to set an even tempo because if he crawls along he lacks the turn of foot (esp with the weight) that his lightly raced rivals have. He's always been a strong 1 pacer who goes best with pace on. Look at how he blew them away in Singapore when they went cracking pace in front recently.

[Sportz]

any1 know wats happening with confectioner?
Cox Plate, then Melbourne Cup.

[Tenacious Spirit]

Confectioner....melbourne cup. LOL. Why don;t they run him in the cox and then put him away, there is NO chance repeat NO chance confectioner could run 3200 even if he had 6 legs.

[Tenacious Spirit]

Raw, you wern't referring to me potting plastered? I reckon he is even a bit too brilliant for the melbourne cup despite his trainer being adament that it is an out and out dour stayer. I think he makes a top horse over 2400.

In terms of Vouvray, i don't know what too think. Seems a 'gunna' horse. But she has obviously been set for one race and one race only.

Portland more suited to melbourne cup but a win is not beyond her.

Can't agree with you Duritz RE dizelle. My theory is that shes a bogger. She should go back to sandown and mornington races.

[brave chief]

Confectioner won't get a start in the Cox Plate either.

Either the MV Cup, Mackinnon or Dalgety, Sandown Cup.

[La Mer]

Confectioner won't get a start in the Cox Plate either.

Either the MV Cup, Mackinnon or Dalgety, Sandown Cup.

Despite what has been reported in some media today, I think you will find that Confectioner WILL get a start in the Cox Plate. The CEO of MVRC stated so on radio this morning. Unlike the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate is by invitation of the MVRC with just four horses at this stage exempted into the race: Maykbe Diva, Xcellent, Mummify and Lad Of The Manor with the other ten runners plus the three emergencies being at the discretion of the MVRC - unlike handicap races like the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups there are no formal qualifying clauses.

[Sportz]

BARRIER DRAW:

8-4.05 CARLTON DRAUGHT CAULFIELD CUP 2400 M
1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman D Nikolic 20 57
2 RAZKALLA (USA) Saeed Bin Suroor N.Rawiller 18 55
3 FIGHT YOUR CORNER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor K McEvoy 2 54.5
4 EYE POPPER (JPN) Izumi Shimizu S Fujita 9 54
5 PLASTERED Lindsey Smith P J Harvey 16 54
6 CARTE DIAMOND (USA) Brian Ellison 7 53
7 SIR DEX Gregory Hickman Z Purton 1 53
8 STELLA GRANDE Lee Freedman N Ryan 10 52.5
9 RAILINGS John Hawkes G Childs 12 52
10 DEMERGER Danny O'Brien D Dunn 11 51.5
11 DIZELLE John Hawkes D Beadman 21 51.5
12 HOLLOW BULLET John McArdle S.King 15 51.5
13 PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) Neville McBurney L Cassidy 6 51.5
14 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody S Seamer 14 51.5
15 WILD IRIS Guy Walter G Boss 19 51.5
16 EL SEGUNDO (NZ) Colin Little D Gauci 4 49.5
17 IRISH DARLING Tony Vasil D Moor (a) 3 49.5
18 LEICA FALCON Richard Freyer C.Williams 13 48
19E LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) John Morrisey Steven King 17 51.5
20E NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison 8 53
21E BAZELLE (NZ) Paul Jenkins 5 50.5

[Duritz]

don't pot confec., he would've won that Caul Cup and he will get 3200.

[La Mer]

don't pot confec., he would've won that Caul Cup and he will get 3200.

As much as I like the horse (he's won me money so why wouldn't I like him) there is no evidence to suggest that he could run out a strong 3200m. He has only ever won up to 2000m and has failed at 2400m on two occasions: in one he got beat about ten lengths.

Would be interested to know your reasoning or is it merely just a gut feeling?

[Matilda]

Latest Odds from Queesland Tab

EL SEGUNDO $3.40
PLASTERED $5.50
LEICA FALCON $7.00
RAILINGS $11.00
SIR DEX $12.00
VOUVRAY $13.00
DIZELLE $15.00
MUMMIFY $18.00
DEMERGER $21.00
PORTLAND SINGA $21.00
CARTE DIAMOND $31.00
FIGHT YOUR CORNER $31.00
LACHLAN RIVER (1E) $31.00
WILD IRIS $31.00
BAZELLE (3E) $51.00
EYE POPPER $61.00
HOLLOW BULLET $61.00
IRISH DARLING $81.00
RAZKALLA $81.00
STELLA GRANDE $81.00
NATURAL BLITZ (2E) $101.00

Good E/W is Railing and Dizelle

[Raw Instinct]

Sir Dex has to be a ****** good chance now drawing 1 he could be sitting about 4th or 5th on the rail behind a solid pace has to be a big show now and at $12-$15 he is good vaule. Tenacious Spirit I wasn't saying you were bagging Plastered just seems that alot of people around the media and on the net are I do disagree with you about him being dour though he does look very one paced to me MC is the race for him to win if he is going to win anything this prep. Also like Portland Singa more now to had to draw a good gate to be a chance in this she could also be sitting in a nice posie now to.

[Duritz]

Portland Singa is a massive chance. Huge overs. I've taken $390 the double Portland Singa into Dizelle in the Melbourne today just at the TAB. Huge overs.

As for Confectioner at the 3200, forget his Caulfield Cup run last year. Too bad a run to be indicative. In his other 2400m run, here's the expert form video comment on the run: "Eased, settled down at rear. Even tempo. well back hooked out straightening up, sprint home. Left too much to do." but still ran 4th beaten 3.4, making ground on the line. Then in the mackinnon, over 2000, whilst beaten soundly by Grand Armee he closed best of all for 2nd and thrashed the rest. Also, the way he stretched out the last bit and importantly after the line in the Yalumba indicated he had plenty left for further. Looks to be turning into a big, strong horse not unlike GRand Armee. In fact, is reminding me a lot of that horse now and is rating similarly.

I think the horse should run in the Mackinnon because he would annihilate them. would be the greatest cert of the carnival. However, David Hayes thinks that Confec will be best suited of all in the Melbourne Cup, so he obviously believes it'll get the trip.

All I am saying is that you can't say he won't get 3200 until he tries. To me he will get 2400 comfortably and a horse who does get a strong 2400m and who can settle, is a high class galloper with the ability to quicken, well, if you pot them when they're untried, do so at your own peril.

One who will eat up the trip though is Dizelle. I keep tipping that horse here, I hope some of you take notice because I think it will be a really good bet come Melbourne Cup day. Those who think it's a wet tracker, go back and watch the Turnbull run where she finished 11th, beaten 6 lens, on a dry track. Watch how well it goes. Here's the expert-form video comment of that run: "settled down midfield 4lens rails, got through between horses 3lens turn, bolting, looked a threat, badly checked when going for run 300, lost 4lens. Got going strongly late. Very stiff"

Will be very, very strong in the Melbourne, and very, very hard to beat.

[La Mer]

Portland Singa is a massive chance. Huge overs. I've taken $390 the double Portland Singa into Dizelle in the Melbourne today just at the TAB. Huge overs.

As for Confectioner at the 3200, forget his Caulfield Cup run last year. Too bad a run to be indicative. In his other 2400m run, here's the expert form video comment on the run: "Eased, settled down at rear. Even tempo. well back hooked out straightening up, sprint home. Left too much to do." but still ran 4th beaten 3.4, making ground on the line. Then in the mackinnon, over 2000, whilst beaten soundly by Grand Armee he closed best of all for 2nd and thrashed the rest. Also, the way he stretched out the last bit and importantly after the line in the Yalumba indicated he had plenty left for further. Looks to be turning into a big, strong horse not unlike GRand Armee. In fact, is reminding me a lot of that horse now and is rating similarly.

I think the horse should run in the Mackinnon because he would annihilate them. would be the greatest cert of the carnival. However, David Hayes thinks that Confec will be best suited of all in the Melbourne Cup, so he obviously believes it'll get the trip.

All I am saying is that you can't say he won't get 3200 until he tries. To me he will get 2400 comfortably and a horse who does get a strong 2400m and who can settle, is a high class galloper with the ability to quicken, well, if you pot them when they're untried, do so at your own peril.

One who will eat up the trip though is Dizelle. I keep tipping that horse here, I hope some of you take notice because I think it will be a really good bet come Melbourne Cup day. Those who think it's a wet tracker, go back and watch the Turnbull run where she finished 11th, beaten 6 lens, on a dry track. Watch how well it goes. Here's the expert-form video comment of that run: "settled down midfield 4lens rails, got through between horses 3lens turn, bolting, looked a threat, badly checked when going for run 300, lost 4lens. Got going strongly late. Very stiff"

Will be very, very strong in the Melbourne, and very, very hard to beat.

Can't say I necessarily agree with you, but thanks for your answer and reasoning.

IMO if she runs in the Melbourne Cup, THE mare will give them all wind burn as she sails past them in the straight.

[Raw Instinct]

I wish you luck with Dizelle mate it is the other Hawkes runner that has me excited about the Melbourne Cup Railings has really made huge strides this prep matter of whether it can keep going or not. I have doubles with Sir Dex-Railings @ $360, Portland Singa-Railings @ $655, Vouvray-Railings @ $465 & Portland Singa-Vouvray @ $405 right now I am pretty happy with what I have might do one or two more over the next couple of days.

[Raw Instinct]

I amnot going to say that Makybe Diva can't win the Melbourne Cup she certainly can I will take my chances on it though.

[Duritz]

I'm a huge fan of the Diva but am willing to bet against her with 58. Fact is she is maxed out with that weight, and in order to win would need everything to go right in the run (like the last 2 years) and then she would have enough in her to win by a head or so only. If anything at all goes wrong, with 58 she won't be able to win. Willing to pot her heavily actually. Not saying she "can't" win, but as I said, she'll need everything to go absolutely right. If a lightly weighted mare like Dizelle is within 2L of her turning, getting about 7kgs off her, the Diva won't be able to hold her out.

[brave chief]

Hey Duritz,

Apparently, Eye Popper has a current rating of 111 (same scale as Timeform I suggest) in Japan. Pretty much suggests he's outclassed. I couldnt find his rating for 2004, which probably means he didnt rate 100 or better during the year.

BTW, Tosen Dandy has a 2005 rating of 103 & 2004 rating of 105 on the turf.

[bl4dez]

i have money on eye popper so hope he win lol

[Duritz]

Thanks Chief. I think both those horse's will be outclassed at the elite level. Might be a lower race in there for Tosen Dandy, grinded away like a possible provincial Cup winner at Cranbourne, that looks his level.

Eye Popper's 111 might translate to a race like the Sandown Classic perhaps?

[brave chief]

Apparently Lachlan River is in & Fight Your Corner is out.

Adds a bit more spice.

I'm hoping there might be some genuine pace on. With two known one-pacers (Mummify & Plastered) drawn wide, they may have no option but to roll forward. I seriously doubt either can win by taking a sit. If one of the imports is a front-runner, it could be a closer's race.

I'm might be leaning towards Sir Dex. Vastly improved this year. I initially thought his first-up win was flukey, but now has enough good runs in the strongest company this prep as proof positive. Has always shown ability really.

[Duritz]

Yep. Strong chance, will be run to suit him too. Still though, when all's said and done, if El Segundo repeats the Yalumba run, he wins.

[moeee]

I saw areplay of El Segundo's last win.
My goodness gracious me.
I am having a hundred on it for the Cu\aulfield Cup.
SPECIAL
Bit skinny at $3.40 but!

[Stix]

I saw areplay of El Segundo's last win.
My goodness gracious me.
I am having a hundred on it for the Cu\aulfield Cup.
SPECIAL
Bit skinny at $3.40 but!
Should have got on BEFORE Confectioner was screwed over !! ;)

[Matilda]

Hi all,

Did I read the Vic Caulfield Cup form correctly on Eye Popper where he got 3rd and beat Makybe Diva (7th)??? Was carrying 58.5Kg and now only 54Kg??

Matilda.

[Sportz]

Yep.

They reckon that the track was too hard for Makybe Diva that day, but still not a bad effort by Eye Popper.

[La Mer]

Yep.

They reckon that the track was too hard for Makybe Diva that day, but still not a bad effort by Eye Popper.

It was also at the end of a long campaign, an afterthought race and didn't travel too well to Japan - in other words a race better forgotten about re MD.

[Tenacious Spirit]

Duritz just saw your post saying confectioner would get 3200. No he wouldn;t couldnt and can't. I will eat humble pie if he does but i am extremely confident he would not even get close.

[Sportz]

If he's in the Melbourne Cup, he WILL run 3200m. Exactly how fast he runs it, well that's another thing. :D

[Stix]

If he's in the Melbourne Cup, he WILL run 3200m. Exactly how fast he runs it, well that's another thing. :DYou are a Cantankerous old thing Sportz ! :D

[slowman]

he had the dream run,,,,but hey ,he won well and was not pushed to hard......
i had a good crack at him and thought it was way overs @7.00 but this is the cup and any thing under five bucks is a rip...............
have a good day.........slowman..............

[Duritz]

LOL Sportz, touche'.

Tenacious for me the clincher on whether he'll get the 3200 is Hayes. I thoroughly respect his judgement, unlike a LOT of other trainers, and I have it on quite good authority that he has always thought it a better chance for the Melbourne. You might be right, I certainly concede he's a query at it.

Moe Cup today, Gee that was a moral. It was my only bet for the day. Sportingbet put up $5.00, I thought about it and decided to wait for $5.50, their next offer was $4.60, I got annoyed so didn't take it (still 5.90 on tote) then next was 4.20, then 4.0, then 3.70. I didn't take any of those. No, clever me backed it "best price" with them, for which I got SP, at $3.30. How do you spell M-U-G?

Anyway, go the Segundo.

[bl4dez]

go RAILING AND EYE POPER!

[moeee]

Should have got on BEFORE Confectioner was screwed over !! ;)
Unfortunately my foresight cannot compare with yours.

[rabbitz]

i reckon you,ll get more than $3.40 (el segundo) on vic tote on saturday,i'd be very surprised if you didnt.
hibernation over moeee,good to seee you back
cheers

[Duritz]

Close to $4 the machine I reckon

[andrew057]

Looks like connections are going to scratch Mummify and race it in the Cox Plate due to the barrier draw. A decision will be made early tomorrow.

[Stix]

Looks like connections are going to scratch Mummify and race it in the Cox Plate due to the barrier draw. A decision will be made early tomorrow.
He WILL run...... Much better chance in the CC than the CP ! :D

[brave chief]

Looks like connections are going to scratch Mummify and race it in the Cox Plate due to the barrier draw. A decision will be made early tomorrow.

Scratching because of a bad draw? Man, thats ordinary. Reminds me a bit of G Ryan's whinge before the Slipper re Snitzel's draw.

How would you feel if you were an owner of one of the borderline horses that just failed to make the field?

[Real Deal]

Even if it is scratched which i think is a poor decision it still does not make a difference to the horses that missed out as i guarantee there will be 18 horses that leave the barriers tomorrow when they burst open!

[andrew057]

I agree guys, if they do scratch it i will be extremely disappointed.

Here is an article I just found too:

Owners ready to pull plug on Mummify start
14oct05

A MEETING of owners today will determine if Caulfield Cup (2400m) topweight Mummify lines up to try to win the race for the second time tomorrow.

Mummify's senior part-owner Mark Pegic said the 2003 Caulfield Cup winner had drawn poorly and trainer Lee Freedman had advised them not to start in the race.

Freedman said a decision would be made tomorrow morning and many factors would be considered.

"They (the stable) think we are a lot better off going straight to the Cox Plate and in light of the circumstances that could be the way to go," Pegic said.

"We are going to get together and decide what's in the best interests of the horse. He's getting a bit older and the gate is not ideal."

Mummify has 57kg and has drawn gate 20 with Danny Nikolic listed to ride.

Nikolic's availability will be clarified today when he makes an application to the Racing Appeals Tribunal over a 25-day ban and $30,000 fine for not giving Activation every chance in a race.

Mummify is expected to lead in the Caulfield Cup and speed maps for the race will change dramatically if he does not run.

[Sportz]

There was an interview with Lee Freedman on the radio this morning. Sounds like they'll probably run him.

[andrew057]

There was an interview with Lee Freedman on the radio this morning. Sounds like they'll probably run him.
Good news