First up

[Oaksnaf]

After reading a bit about horses resuming in several other topics i wondered what the results would be if we only have one qualifier per race.

So this is bsaed on just 1 horse being first up. If there are two races resuming from a spell, the race is excluded. So naturally there would only be a few races selected a day.

Today:

Pakenham:

Race 2) #8 unplcaed
Race 4) #9 1st $70.60, $10.40

Cessnock:

Race 2) #2 1st $4.80, $1.80
Race 8) #6 unplaced

now 2/4 strikerate is pretty good (excluding odds) so ill be looking at this in the future for sure.

[odericko]

dam you oaky you got it ....dash it all against the stone wall ,,,lol

[partypooper]

I read somewhere that the vast majority of races 1200m or less are won by 1st uppers?

[Oaksnaf]

I read somewhere that the vast majority of races 1200m or less are won by 1st uppers?
Pakenham Race 4 was a 1750m race in a decent sized field.
And the other winner was at 1350m
The two losses, 1350, 1000m

[partypooper]

Oaksnaf, fair comment , but remember what I am talking about is 20,000 races plus not a couple of weeks, there will always be those amazing anomalies (spelling) I'm not saying that you haven't cottoned on to something, only that the proof is in the eating.... shall we say!!!!

[Dale]

I read somewhere that the vast majority of races 1200m or less are won by 1st uppers?

Partypooper dont this personaly but statements like that annoy me.

Heres why,races over 1200m or less have an awful lot of horses resuming in them,its no surprise that they win their fair share....


Your statement is true but it means nothing when it comes to punting,its akin to the 21 days or such since last rule that most people also put too much stock in.

i note that Oaksnaf said the big winner was in a 1750m race,i wonder how many horses resume from a spell in races over a distance like that,not many i'd say and from a punting perspective it is an interesting angle to follow.

[davez]

if we look at the other maidens run at pakenham that day we had one for 3yold's only, 2 1000m sprints & the 1750 lottery that the 1st upper won.

it would appear that the trainer considered the 1750 more suitable than either of the 1000's, maybe there had been setback of some sort so he missed a more suitable race a week or 2 earlier, then put plenty of work into the nag, but the real question is - was there any stable support? it would appear not, meaning the win was most likely simply a fluke, or considering this was only it's 2nd start after a 18 month layoff, maybe its got a smidgin of ability & could easily account for the rest of the no-hopers.

not wanting to suggest there is not an opportunity to be had backing 1st uppers, just that those that commence of such distances would almost certainly have an abysmal record, not that you need to many to win at those odds.

[w924]

it would appear that the trainer considered the 1750 more suitable than either of the 1000's

I wonder if it was in preparation for a longer distance race, or simply a big workout to get it race fit for a shorter distance race next time out?


was there any stable support?

hard to say really..it could have been a mistake, however, with the different off course betting facilities on offer now, at that price you wouldnt need to spread much off course in order to get a great collect...

Mistakes do happen. I backed a horse back in the mid 1980's at around 70-1 and it beat the fave Lets Get Physical. I cleaned up big time, only to hear weeks later that the connections of the winner didnt have a red cent on it...

First up over that sort of distance is more in line with Northern hemisphere racing imo, and we may get to see more of that perhaps...

[partypooper]

someone here's got a darn Mill Stone to cast for some reason,( where's the moderator?) exactly what I said one big priced winner first up over 1750, may be repeatable, but the proof is down the line. i.e. we haven't seen any yet!!

Oaksnaf, I wasn't having a go at you by the way just reminded me of something I read about 1st uppers over 1200 or less, and as Dale said many races have 4 or so 1st uppers, so that's a vaild point as well. I wasn't suggesting that just by backing all 1st uppers over 1200 or less would show a profit, it was merely throwing in food for thought. But got MORE ex****nt thrown back by the "Pain".

[Oaksnaf]

someone here's got a darn Mill Stone to cast for some reason,( where's the moderator?) exactly what I said one big priced winner first up over 1750, may be repeatable, but the proof is down the line. i.e. we haven't seen any yet!!

Oaksnaf, I wasn't having a go at you by the way just reminded me of something I read about 1st uppers over 1200 or less, and as Dale said many races have 4 or so 1st uppers, so that's a vaild point as well. I wasn't suggesting that just by backing all 1st uppers over 1200 or less would show a profit, it was merely throwing in food for thought. But got MORE ex****nt thrown back by the "Pain".
Oh no, i know that. I was just saying what distances today's horses ran/won at. It probably came across i was trying to imply something. But i was just stating the distance they ran at, not saying what you said is untrue.

But i have done a backtrack since Friday, and there is a handsome 500% profit after 20 selections. I will certainly keep you up to date.

Today;s races

Hamilton:

Race 5) #7

Grafton:

Race 8) #12

Only two selections via looking at the form guide from the Herald Sun.

[Oaksnaf]

Also Hamilton 2) #3

[Oaksnaf]

Well what i have been noticing. It is *very* early days, only 21 selections. But i have not had a winner which has been in a field of less than 10 starters.

Ill keep a record of it to see if this trend continues in the next 100 starters.

[Dale]

Hamilton:

Race 5) #7




I notice it has 2 spells in its last 4 starts,i always keep my eye out for these horses,i put them in the fun catagory and have a little bet on em,you get some nice priced winners.

The theory is that the trainer thinks he has a good horse and is taking it along slowly waiting for it to reach maturity.

[Oaksnaf]

I notice it has 2 spells in its last 4 starts,i always keep my eye out for these horses,i put them in the fun catagory and have a little bet on em,you get some nice priced winners.

The theory is that the trainer thinks he has a good horse and is taking it along slowly waiting for it to reach maturity.
Well we will find out in little over an hour wont we. Hehe. But there are less than 10 runners in this event, and so far, not one winner has come from a field smaller than 10. But there is always time for a first, and hope today is that day.

[Sportz]

Okay, I just noticed this thread.

I actually had a bit of fun a few years back following sole first-uppers in fields of 12 or more and particularly in races of 1300m+.

By the way, on a similar note, you could also take a look at sole first starters. By that I mean, the only horse in the race which is having it's first career start. Again fields of 12 or more and concentrate on maidens.

Don't think it's any holy grail or anything, but it's not bad for a bit of fun or perhaps include these horses in multis.

[punter57]

Dale, I don't think your reasoning is correct (post 14) with regard to this horse in Hamilton R5. It looks like it was injured or something last time in. To accept the risk of betting on it (Deneuve) the price would have to be much longer AND the trainer would have to be displaying much more confidence than is the case today. Only half an hour to go.
PS. What's your E-Mail Dale? Gothehalalau or something like that? Cheers.

[Dale]

Dale, I don't think your reasoning is correct (post 14) with regard to this horse in Hamilton R5. It looks like it was injured or something last time in. To accept the risk of betting on it (Deneuve) the price would have to be much longer AND the trainer would have to be displaying much more confidence than is the case today. Only half an hour to go.
PS. What's your E-Mail Dale? Gothehalalau or something like that? Cheers.


Yep well spotted 57,thats the trouble with those horses but sometimes my throery holds up,if like you say the odds outway the risk then its worth a punt.

Yeah my email is something like that,it should be gothehalatau not gothehalalau

Can i expect a love letter sometime soon lol.

[Bhagwan]

I did some research on resumers once & it produced a profit when targeting 1400m races for resumers , I found that strange because the stats say the percentage to starters is greater in 1200m races & less .

One wont get many bets.

Maybe there is a good reason why most trainers do not place their horses in the 1201+m range race .

[w924]

Interesting post bhagwan...kinda flies in the face of what i assumed. That's good. Thanks

[Sportz]

Yep. That's what I found just looking at results over the years. As I said, races of 1300m+ and preferably 1400m+.

[Silver_and_sand]

Here's today's sole first-uppers (barring late scratchings):

BR2 #8 Cigallo (G Colless) 1030m 54.5kg 3YO Maiden 3YO
SR1 #1 Another Time (Simon Miller(A)) 1000m 58kg Class 3 3YO Fillies
SR3 #5 Rouillac (M Bell) 1000m 53kg Class 3 3YO Colts & Geldings
SR6 #3 Lunar Creek (J Penza) 1400m 55kg Class 3 3YO+
MR4 #2 Vendome (R Wheeler) 2000m 57kg Class 6
MR7 #2 Quintanella (D Beadman) 1600m 58.5kg Open 4YO+ Mares
PR3 #13 Metal Dancer (J Brown) 1000m 54kg Class 6 3YO Colts & Geldings
FR3 #5 Safin (J Borrett) 1175m 53.5kg Class 6
ZR4 #2 British Made (J Ritchie) 1600m 57.5kg
ZR6 #10 Power Play (R Allwood (A)) 1600m 55.5kg
ZR7 #8 Rockin Ronnie (R Allwood (A)) 2100m 54kg

[Oaksnaf]

Here's today's sole first-uppers (barring late scratchings):

BR2 #8 Cigallo (G Colless) 1030m 54.5kg 3YO Maiden 3YO
SR1 #1 Another Time (Simon Miller(A)) 1000m 58kg Class 3 3YO Fillies
SR3 #5 Rouillac (M Bell) 1000m 53kg Class 3 3YO Colts & Geldings
SR6 #3 Lunar Creek (J Penza) 1400m 55kg Class 3 3YO+
MR4 #2 Vendome (R Wheeler) 2000m 57kg Class 6
MR7 #2 Quintanella (D Beadman) 1600m 58.5kg Open 4YO+ Mares
PR3 #13 Metal Dancer (J Brown) 1000m 54kg Class 6 3YO Colts & Geldings
FR3 #5 Safin (J Borrett) 1175m 53.5kg Class 6
ZR4 #2 British Made (J Ritchie) 1600m 57.5kg
ZR6 #10 Power Play (R Allwood (A)) 1600m 55.5kg
ZR7 #8 Rockin Ronnie (R Allwood (A)) 2100m 54kg
Ahh thanks very much for doing that Silver_and_sand. Appreciated.

Hopefully can pick a few good priced winners in that bunch.

[Sportz]

By the way, on a similar note, you could also take a look at sole first starters. By that I mean, the only horse in the race which is having it's first career start. Again fields of 12 or more and concentrate on maidens.

Don't think it's any holy grail or anything, but it's not bad for a bit of fun or perhaps include these horses in multis.

Taree R3-9 Goodnight Seattle 69.00/9.90. :D

[kenchar]

Oaksnaf,

You don't realise how close you are, but place betting only with one more filter it's about as good as it gets for a mechanical system.
The only drawback is you have to sit in front of the screen in every race that has first uppers.
Go back over results and just a little hint, as always it's to do with odds.

Cheers

[DR RON]

Welcome back Kenchar.

[kenchar]

Thanks DR RON,

I'll just have to watch myself in future and be a little pussycat, and try not to upset any scammers out there.
Won't be as much fun though but I can Live with it.

Cheers.

[DR RON]

I trust your regular method is still going ok?

[kenchar]

Yup!
BUT,
I will be monitoring this method of first uppers for a bit longer, and if it holds up I might even consider switching ( and that is a monumental statement ) because it doesn't have the brain damage I go through now finding a selection.
It comes back to you have to put the time in in front of the screen to find the selection but it is clear cut not like what I currently do which is a lot of guesswork.IF I switch I will still run the hit and run method as I still firmly believe get your money and run.
The good about this is if I ever disclose it then all the nonbelievers, and they know who they are can check previous results.
On second thoughts if it does hold up I won't disclose it, because I don't give a damn what the nonbelievers think, because as previously said in many a banter on the forum they don't pay my bills.
Cheers

[DR RON]

Dont rush into anything KC

[Oaksnaf]

Good day today, won at the track at Caulfield, and won with the first up from spell races across the board. Looks to be pretty consistent with a lot of decent odds.

[wesmip1]

Oaksnaf,

Can you please post the rules you are using as your filter ?

Thanks

[Oaksnaf]

Oaksnaf,

Can you please post the rules you are using as your filter ?

Thanks
At the moment im no where near using a filter as i have only just started logging results since the 7th of October.

[Oaksnaf]

Two winners from 4 races today: $2,20: $9.60

[Oaksnaf]

Today:

Orange:
R4)#10
R6) #1
R7) #9

[Oaksnaf]

Well if you were to box all first up horses (4 of them) in Mildura Race 3, would have won yourself a handy $5,740.00 not bad at all.

[cinna]

Spotted this thread a few days ago but hadn't had time to post 'till now. I've been capitalising on these for months mainly doing exactas incorporated with my ratings [Jims']. The trick in the sprints where there are multiple runners seems to be to leave the shorty or 2. Time & again there'll be 1 or 2 well backed & 2 of the longer ones run the quin for big returns. One at the G Coast sat comes to mind. Trainers know they'll get big odds 1st up if the horse was out of form prior to its' spell so target these races. I recently got a good exacta at B/go with Prince of Rhythm & one of Laings'. They were the only 2 in the race which was 1600m. There seem to be quite a few more of these 'distance' ones these days. Last Mon at Warrnambool I noticed at least 2 races won or quin. over 1400m + but unfortunately had a badly disrupted arvo!! I actually thought I was the only one taking these types of bets as they pay so well!! Sometimes I'll take the standout fav with the longer 1st ups & they still pay well.

[Oaksnaf]

Today:

Orange:
R4)#10
R6) #1
R7) #9
Race 6) #1 2nd $3.40
others unplaced

[cinna]

2nd at kyneton today, 1400m Mdn, 3 x 1stuppers ran the quin for $44. Looked a horrible race too but as the battery on my clock is apparently running out of puff, I missed not just the 1st race but 2nd as well!! What chance the rest of the arvo after that??!!

[Oaksnaf]

Races today>
Ballina R1) #1 (3rd NTD)
Ballina R4) #1
Ballina R8) #10
Kyneton R5) #16

[Oaksnaf]

Races today>
Ballina R1) #1 (3rd NTD)
Ballina R4) #1
Ballina R8) #10
Kyneton R5) #16
R5) #16.... ahh so close. Paid $22 for the place. Nice little grab.

[Michal]

Hi Gents,

First time post here and Im about to poop on your parade.
I tested the system using these parameters which I hope are right.

1 Only one 1st up horse in the race


Sys A = 1400m or longer

The result for Jan-September 2005 was
924 races for 53 wins which is 5.7% at a $351 loss

Sys B = 800m to 1200m

The result for Jan-September 2005 was
549 for 53 wins which is 9.7% at a $142 loss

It seams that you are running through a green patch in a desert. Good luck to you but the results don't lie and I tested the system with much hope. I cant say that I have
all races this year but I'll say I have 75% of all races run this year so some results may vary but I wouldnt say that the trend will be reversed if you tested races that I do not have.

Michal

[Sportz]

By the way, on a similar note, you could also take a look at sole first starters. By that I mean, the only horse in the race which is having it's first career start. Again fields of 12 or more and concentrate on maidens.

Don't think it's any holy grail or anything, but it's not bad for a bit of fun or perhaps include these horses in multis.

Hamilton R1-9 Great Steps $17.40/$4.60 :D

[Truckie]

I have often observed races with real first starters (not after spell), and often wonder if these are worth considering if the majority of the field has had three or more starts. This could indicate that the horse has not raced earlier for some reason or other, and the connections have waited until they can have a winner at a good price. If quite a few runners have only one or two starts it does not indicate the same purpose, as there is little difference between one career start and none. These are few and far between, but could be worth waiting for.