Berts best answers to your questions

Hi All
I shall answer as I read them.
post 197 placegetter
Did you get caught with a set of stake knives and you can't sell them to get enough to put on the place.

post 306 equine investor
as far as I know it has not been shown in Vic and NSW yet.
Post 306 , pretty negative

post 5 debug
I agree they didn't show my website , but what they did do is prove that it works and put it up against the Melb and SA paper tipsters.
The intensive labour part is on my end, A subscriber get the selections already to work on spreadsheet.

post 22 lumbarsua
If you have a CRAPPY looking car that works and your friend has a Mercedes that doesn't , which is the one that would do what it is built for.
My site might look crappy to you , but I have seen elaborate and beautiful looking sites that take too long to load and do nothing, so mine is more usefull , it works and is fast.

post 306 equine investor
point 1 , I have the only address puntersbankbook.com.au , I hope you are not suggesting that mine must be similar than the one that failed.

point 2, Just because YOU haven't found it does not mean it is Impossible.
Just because Those hardiest punters you know don't win every day, does not mean it can't be done.

point 3
Mathematicians have indeed known mathematics like that for hundreds of years, and they did so before they made the rockets to go to the moon.
Even when the rocket was actually on the moon some mathematicians were saying that it was a hollywood hoax and that it could not be done, How things have changed since then, I still have my slide rule from school, well before the calculators came out.
None of these 3 points stand up to being FACT.

point 4 , a money back guarantee to do what .
point 5 , You obviously haven't looked further than the advertising, ALL results are there .
point 6 , Today Tonight checked it out for a month before putting their money on it and the staff also had their own account and had a party at the end, you didn't even check it out and criticise me to the hilt.
I don't mind that if I deserve it , but I think you are unfair here.

post 169 be careful
Thank you requesting a Free trial, it shall be yours in the morning.
Q 1 we only bet on them when they show $4 or better, if they show less then don't bet it.
That is also the difference you are asking about.
All potential dividends are rounded down and the calculated bet is rounded up,to give you that extra gap if the price does drop, so a $5.90 selection gets calculated as a $4 , you round down first and then subtract one.
A $6.20 becomes $5 and if the suggested bet in the spreadsheet tells you that you have put $7.42 on it , you round it up to an $8 bet .
The spreadsheet I designed takes care of all the expenses and works them in , so each time you get a winner , all your expenses are paid for , including phone, internet and subscription cost can all be added in a special box.
people around the world can type in their Time zone and all starting times change to suit.
For more , see my LESSON on the website.

point 2
I agree that any system that uses a staking plan should first make a level stake profit, I do n't work a staking plan on this , we work to a Target , which is completely different.

post 22 lumbarsua
You need to look at the website again if you really want to see that .
The answer to your PS Q.
NO , because the stats since SEPT show a avg profit of $500-$800 per month and a 3 Months subscription is only $390 per 3 Months.

You won't find any horses names anywhere, I don't need to know those , as I study other things such as Trainers Habits and their results , as they are the people in charge , whichever horses they are training.
Whatever the Trainer says goes or else he/she is fired, just look back to the time a jockey got pulled over the coals for doing something different without the trainers approval and the horse won too.

The aim is to win 1% or preferably 1/2 % of your bank and STOP at the first collect.

To see previous spreadsheets with everything layed out including the results added, you can find those for about a month back on my website (see "our results") in the small small MENU.
Read LESSON and it will tell you more.

I better get the Trots and Dogs results ready to upload now .
Goodnight all ,
regards Bert



_________________
Berts Best 777 Ratings , supplied on spreadsheet every day for Gallops & Dogs& Trots
Others offer refunds for their failures, we help you make a profit every day
Don't believe me, try it for yourself with a FREE Trial.
FREE ,Full support avail

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2002-07-09 23:12 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Bert, I apologize if I seemed negative, however, I am very wary of anyone selling horseracing "systems" or selections. Ratings services deserve to be paid a fee for the work that they do, as they provide information but do not guarantee a profit.
Selection services such as yours do claim a longterm profit without losing one single day.

I was sincere in my wishes for you to be successful, but I was just pointing out that the service is something I won't be subscribing to.

In reply to this post, I shall respond to your responses and then leave it at that.

1. There is no system that can win at target betting in the longrun if it doesn't win at level stakes, and no amount of convincing will sway me from that. Target betting and staking plans are exactly the same in essence...chasing losses. Whilst an effective staking plan will magnify profits if the level stakes betting is profitable, it will also magnify losses and therefore send you broke in the longrun if your selections show a level stakes loss.

All my points stand up in FACT, there are mathematical probabilities which have remained unchanged since the dawn of time.

Rockets to the moon have nothing to do with the laws of probability and odds. Yes, there were mathematicians which questioned the trip to the moon, but they never denied it was possible to defy gravity given the laws of physics. You, however, if you win every single day since September 2001 are defying the basic laws of probability.
It is this claim which I find questionable, not the fact that you are able to make a profit.

You are the first person ever in the history of horseracing to win every day. I am sorry, I simply don't believe it. The fact that you are asking for subscribers tells any intelligent person, that you yourself are not winning EVERY day, otherwise you would not be running a website, you would be living in the BAHAMAS on your own island.

Had you even claimed to win six out of seven days, I could have entertained the notion, but every single day is mathematically impossible.

I concede that your webpage now has results, however we don't know which horses you suggested as bets and therefore giving TAB prices only has no benefit to people wanting clarification of the results

I am sorry for criticising you without seeing the Today Tonight program, but the judgements were made after visiting your website and seeing the claims which were made.

You won't find any horses names anywhere, I don't need to know those.

If you are seeking subscribers, I am sure they do.

Cheers.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-10 00:24 ]</font>

Thank you Equine

You are dead right that work needs to be paid for and that is exactly what I am seeking, I have spent 30 or so years being ridiculed so I can take a few knockers .
I didn't belive it myself that this was happening and didn't want to expose it too much and be carefull etc , just incase it didn't work all the time, It is absolutely TRUE and FACT that this has won right through to now , Today we collected $31 profit for a target of $5 bringing it up to $105.80 for this Month.
I don;t expect anyone to believe me , because most people have been dudded by people selling tips and systems , including me.
That is why I give a FREE Trial , so everyone can see for themselves.
I also say that one day I expect it not to produce a winner for the day, but so far it still does and not just once but several times.
Mathematical probablity is what the spreadsheet works with as per Target betting.
This puts the probability of collecting a profit in my favour.
Now you mention it , I suppose I must be the only one that wins every day and prove it as well.
The website has always been updated every day, right from day one, The selections are also on the spreadsheet you just didn't look at them , today for instance there was a track called Moe and Cessnock , that is on the spreadsheet and so are the Tabnumbers associated with the race numbers and the starting times.
so you only have to look.
I don't use horses names because I don't need them to make a profit.
So why use something that is extra work to type in, you can't win any extra if you know the name.

And my subscribers are very happy just knowing that they are winning.

Anyway , you are also welcome to get a free trial and ofcourse no obligation .
But as you say you won't subscribe so I hope you are winning lots your way and not being happy losing your money for the sake of not wanting to check something new out.

regards bert

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2002-12-04 18:19 ]</font>

Hi Puntz
that is where you are wrong.
and that is why I won't take the risk of someone stuffing it up.
If you want a free trial you get one day ,I don't care if you all take turns in getting one, but you do it my way .
The Experts have had more than 200 years to punt the way they do and still Thousands of people following them lose their money.

regards bert

[Equine Investor]

Because the way the selections are staked - often dutch betted two to a race and staked, the "system" cannot win level stakes. Therefore if selections are provided on this forum they would show a level stakes loss.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-10 05:01 ]</font>

Just a quick one before the days work,
You are right Equine
but never dutch betting.
regards Bert

[thevig]

Seems like Bert is onto something if This Day Tonight found he made a profit every day for a month- i.e. This Day Tonight found Bert won 28 days in a row. assume the probability that Bert wins on any day is .999, that is he might lose once in three years. The probability of 28 consecutive wins is .97. Entirely feasible if Bert has phenomenal strike rate, but he can still lose. Bert's strike rate would have to be above 90% for him to have any feasible chance of 28 straight wins. What I would like to know Bert is how many days has your system been running? Are you saying there has never been a losing day for the entire time? What is profit on turnover? Seems if enough people interested we could test it for say ten days.

[quapi]

Please note in the Today Tonight thread we pointed out the thread will be deleted Saturday morning.
That will occur as soon as possible and may be very early.
Any future discussion will need to be made with Bert.

[becareful]

As Bert mentioned I asked for his free trial and have received a copy of today's spreadsheet with his selections (48 in all) and "target" plan. I will post a message at the end of the day with the results and my analysis of the system.

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2002-12-04 18:20 ]</font>

Hi Puntz
it took me 9 months of collecting every day , before I decided to let the TV test it and they proved that I am right and it works , it wasn't a fluke.
What makes it work is the combination of the selection method which does not take into account any dividends or prizemoney, thus giving it a FULL chance to become a decent price and then the combined Maths of the spreadsheet ensures that accurate calculations can be achieved , thus saving on expenses, before collectin on a winner.
I doubt if any Mathematician can test the two combinations and I can't see what that proves anyway, but I won't mind as the outcome of such a test makes no difference to what is happening in reality.
That would only show one way or the other and if the profit keeps coming in every day like it has so far, then I don't really care what the outcome is and it won't benefit anyone else either.

regards Bert

[Equine Investor]

Agree puntz to a point.

Wright Bros etc were ridiculed and so were early explorers for saying that the world was round and not flat.

Centuries later we know that since Einstein, and many of the great mathematicians, despite huge technological advancements, the laws of probability, relativity and physics remain unchanged.

What is or is not possible mathematically is not governed by our imagination or past inventions or for that matter future ones, but rather basic mathematical probability. If as claimed, this system has had not one losing day, then surely the starting bank should have progressed to the point of being able to break every bookie in Australia.

That has yet to happen, basically because the odds made available are structured so that the bookie always wins a % on every race and the punter is at a disadvantage.

Even at 1% of the bank every day for 9 months this would accumulate to an enormous figure requiring neither subscribers, nor further advertising.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-11 01:08 ]</font>

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2002-12-04 18:21 ]</font>

[becareful]

Puntz,
I am not exactly a mathemetician but I have studied statistics at university level (ANU) and I am also somewhat of an expert with Excel (having worked for Microsoft in the past). Having tested Berts system yesterday and studied the underlying formulas, etc, in his spreadsheet I have the following opinion/conclusions/analysis (call it what you will).

The "target betting" is really no different to a loss-chasing staking plan. All Berts spreadsheet does is look at your daily expenses and losses so far and then sets the next bet amount to recover that amount plus your target ($5). eg. If you have $5 expenses and have bet $90 so far today then the next bet would try to win $100 (90+5+5) - so if dividend is $5 the bet would be $21. No great mathematical genius required for this - anybody could work it out with or without a spreadsheet.

The selection method - I have no real idea on how he came up with his selections but am sure it was through some formula (you couldn't do form analysis on that many races in the time available). Suffice it to say that based on the selections yesterday and some of his previous results there is no real magic here - the strike rate multiplied by average dividend is well under the value required to break even at level stakes.

So how has he won every day for 9 months?

Well the first point is that yesterdays results make this claim somewhat questionable - maybe he has but other people (ie. Me!) following HIS RULES EXACTLY with the information available made a loss yesterday. There are also other days in his results that show a loss following his rules (one day last month on dogs/trots and another day when there was a dead-heat).

In my opinion if he has won for 9 months straight (ignoring the losses listed on the website) this is nothing more than pure luck. The "secret" to his success is getting at least one $4 winner each day - if he does that he makes a small profit - if he has a day with no winner then he loses big time. In the long run can anyone guarantee at least one $4 or better winning selection? Of course not - sooner or later you are going to have days where you miss.

The simplist way to look at this statistically is to compare it to the old "doubling" scheme in roulette. Let's say I want to make $5 a day. Each day I go to the Casino and put $5 on red at roulette - if it wins I put the $5 profit in my pocket and walk away - if it loses I double it ($10) and keep doubling until I win and walk away with my $5 profit. My bet sequence is therefore 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640 - if the 640 bet loses then I blow my bank. The chance of this happening is roughly 0.5% each day - so 99.5% of the time I will win my $5, 0.5% of the time I will lose $1275. Now the chance of me being able to win every day for 9 months is around 26% (.995^270). Now the maths for Berts system will be a lot more complicated as it depends on his strike rate and the number of bets per day (ie. he will be more likely to survive a day with 50 bets than one with only 20 - but will lose a lot more if the 50 bet day fails) but the principle is exactly the same - if his selection system loses at even stakes (and he doesn't deny that it does) then in the LONG run (and 9 months is not really the long run) it will lose.

In summary if you want $5 a day then go to the casino and play roulette - if you're lucky it will work for a year and you will only waste 10 minutes of your time each day instead of many hours.

[supersoul]

Hi you guys
Just a comment or two...

Listen to yourselves! I am surprised you guys do not want to have it tested first for two thousand years to see if it makes a profit! Come on!

It is NOT PURE CHANCE- so the roulette comparison is really TOTALLY irrelevant! Even if he picks barriers it is not pure chance... if he picks it on stats.

I am sure you guys each has a much better selection system and make zillions from the bookies- this is the true reason the bookies are folding and the TAB is taking over, right? LOL!

I think you guys just prefer that warm fuzzy feeling which "tells" you "Fast One" is the horse which is going to win... How many of you guys make a profit or punt professionally? And if you do, would your your selection method stand up to the kind of scrutiny you suddenly want to impose here?

If you do not find a method which works for such a long time- nobody else can, eh?

Jeeeeez- the guy is at least not charging you $10,000 like some scams; at worst it is like paying any tipster, and he seems to be willing and able to stand up and be questioned in public on his results. AND I am sure he has some customers who are too busy making money to hang around forums trying to improve their strike rate, and NO costomers smearing his name on the "scam" sites. AND I am sure some of the characters hanging around my local TAB could do worse than pay to have ANY kind of assistance in turning a profit...

Bert, you keep up the good work mate. What these guys really want is somebody who could remove ALL "chance" altogether from racing... then they'd probably want a free year or two to try it out too. Or have a mathematician proof it does not work, and therefore refuse to apply it themselves... LOL! But they are basically a good lot of sceptics- I have learnt a lot from this forum and will continue to do so.

Supersoul,

Are you a mate of Bert's?

Anyone can pick 1 winner out of 38 races.
Anyone can employ a pyramid loss-chasing staking plan.

Why would they want to pay $33/week for the privilege?

You say users are too busy making money? They only make $5-20 per day gross??? and that takes several hours of looking at prices and spreadsheets.

Bert charges $33/week or $4.70 per day.

So people only make 30c to $15.30 per day for several hours work. Meanwhile they risk losing $1000 if they make a mistake like Becareful.

The sorts of figures this system produces is comparable with a sweat shop in Asia. The workers make $100/week while the boss gets 000's!

[Bhagwan]

Well said supersoul.

If it doese`nt suit ones temprament, its best left alone.

If one struck 8 outs in a row it would be a strong idea to divide the outstanding target by 3 or more & spread the remaining 2/3 or more, over the next 2 or more, targets.

That way you protect the bank & in the long run, one should recover all losses + target . It just takes a little longer to recover. Thats OK , the end result is the same.

At the end of the day one still has to be able to pull a winner in the sequence regardless of the staking plan.
Use his staking plan on your selections & see how you fair .
I can only agree with the conservative target percentage because the average punter would freak out & panic if it were any higher.

One has to have a "what if" plan if one is keen on progression punting, so as to be able to handle the enevitable run of outs.

I personally would back any selection paying $3.50+ but still using a Min. divisor of 3.5 that way you minimise the damage & left to fight another day.

[becareful]

Supersoul,

A couple of FACTS for you:

FACT - There are no secrets to Berts staking plan - it is a simple loss chasing system.

FACT - Bert acknowledges that his selections MAKE A LOSS at level stakes.

FACT - It is easy to prove mathematically that any system which loses at level stakes will also lose in the long run regardless of staking plan. How long you can go without hitting that loss is basically determined by what the loss % at level stakes is and how big your bank is (or what the bet limit is). If you are betting on selections that lose money at level stakes then it is EXACTLY the same as playing roulette.

FACT - following his system yesterday I lost over $1000. Now whether I made a slight mistake or not it would take months to recover at $5-$10 per day. Do you want a system where you can lose 3-6 months worth of winnings because one selection was showing $3.70 on your screen instead of $4.00?

Now if you feel that his is a good system then go ahead and buy it. I just question why anyone would spend that money to get a very basic staking plan (I will happily give you the details for free) and a load of selections that make a loss at level stakes.

[supersoul]

Hi Bert
Any chance of filling in the starting prices of all your selections on your (next)spreadsheets?

If your number of selections at $10 plus are reasonably low- ie your strike rate for the $10plus selections are OK, you might have a new customer- me! Or even say $8 plus...

I suppose I can go check myself, but not having access to a database means doing it manually ie hours of toil...

It's just that I am greedy, and want to make easy money fast - unlike normal punters... LOL!

[Equine Investor]

Let's review the whole situation.

To be fair Bert has tried to explain himself and his system to the best of his ability.
I agree that it's not fair to flame anyone just for their opinions or selection methods, I myself have been on the recieving end of this, so know what it's like.

There is one basic difference involved here. On this forum people put forward ideas for arguement, assessment and indeed criticism which is all fair. This is just a general discussion on methods etc. Some agree - some don't.

What Bert is trying to have us believe, is that we are all wrong and basic rules of probability no longer apply in his world.
He has also made outlandish claims of winning EVERY day since September 2001.
Maybe he has, I am not going to call the guy a liar without proof,however I know based on seeing his system in action, that the probability of this is about 500/1.
Sooner or later if you risk $1,000 to win $5.00, you will lose. There is no doubt about it.
And because he has no emergency stop/loss factored into his method, not only will you lose your starting bank, but any profits accrued.
Now I admit I was harsh on him in my criticism, and the guy had the brass one's to answer his critics, albeit usually skirting direct questions.
The major difference is that Bert is selling a system, that by all means cannot win in the longterm given his staking method, strike rate and average dividend. When someone is trying to get subscribers, and blatantly tells everyone that basic laws of probability do not apply, in my opinion this is misleading and could result in a less experienced gambler being put in a situation of losing his nestegg or for that matter more important things in his life.

That is my objection.

Admittedly there are far worse systems out there at a much higher pricetag. But I feel Bert has a duty of care to declare clearly the maths of the system, not tell people less experienced that he has cracked some magic system where odds and probability will not beat him in the end.

Thanks Quapi for allowing Bert's system to be scrutinised here on this forum. Any of my criticism's of Bert's system are not personal, I just feel that his system will not create a longterm profit. Hopefully it may help newcomers to learn something.

[becareful]

Well put Equine Investor. I certainly never meant any of my criticism to be taken personally by Bert or anyone else - if I have offended anyone I apologise. My criticism was purely directed at Berts system and the claims that it will never lose. I think I was very fair in testing the system for a day and posting my results for everyone to see. Now whether I made a mistake or not with that one bet the fact remains that the system either did make a loss that day or could have made a loss had someone else made the same decision as me.

His system is not magic - it is dependant on the same laws of chance and probability that affect all gambling systems and it will have losing days - for Bert to claim otherwise is simply misleading. (I am not saying he is intentionally trying to deceive people - he may just not understand how to do statistical and probability analysis). It is conceivable that he has gone 9 months without a losing day but it is also very possible that he could have 2 or 3 losing days in the next month - that is the nature of random events.

As Equine Investor said there are far worse systems out there but the fact remains that statistically speaking this system WILL LOSE in the long run.

Hi All
I am back for a couple of minutes
I just saw this post
**********
As Equine Investor said there are far worse systems out there but the fact remains
that statistically speaking this system WILL LOSE in the long run.
**********
How long do I have to wait before I have to say that you were right or wrong.
I think 9months of consistently winning is a pretty good run for any system whether you say it should work or not.
The fact remains I keep on winning.
several of you have had yesterdays and todays tips and both days were also profit days with actually a lot more winners than just one, but not one of you has had the decency to post the results of these days here.
Perhaps you are scared that you will get critcised by some of them here as one post said, "are you Berts mate or something"
Plus bagging someone else within two postings without knowing facts.
That is just criticism for the sake of it, perhaps a knowall with a superiority complex.

ok back to making tomorrows tips.
Carry on behind my back , you are doing well.
Only a couple of you have taken the time to look into my methods and posted at least a friendly comment.
Thank you for that
regards Bert

Dear Bert,

What Becareful was saying that using a staking plan like yours - ie loss chasing until you make your $5 is comparable to doubling up on a roulette table until you turn a loss into a profit. The odds are that you will be able to find at least one winner within 20 races. If you do - you make your $5-20 or so and you stop.

However, there will come a day when you are not able to achieve this and you will wipe out 6 months worth of profits. Most people do not want to risk losing 6 mth of profits in one day! Becareful (in theory) did on the 1st day because of a dispute over a dividend.

I may have been harsh on you and I'm sorry for that but you have not answered my questions. Given that people know your staking plan why would anyone want to pay $33 per week for selections that in most cases aren't any better than their own?

The majority of people on this forum would be able to find a winner above $4 inside of 20 bets. Most of them will find a $4 winner inside of 10 bets. Therefore they have no need for your system.

If there is anyone out there who can't find a $4 winner inside of 20 bets then maybe they should buy your system........

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-07-12 15:02, bertsbest wrote:
How long do I have to wait before I have to say that you were right or wrong.
I think 9months of consistently winning is a pretty good run for any system whether you say it should work or not.
The fact remains I keep on winning.

Only a couple of you have taken the time to look into my methods and posted at least a friendly comment.
Thank you for that
regards Bert



Bert, as I said any criticism was of your system, not personal. I wish you well as you believe you will win in the longrun.

If you have won up to this point without busting your bank, then it is pure luck. Maybe you're just a lucky guy. The whole thing is, if a system can bust your bank over 1 selection, it just doesn't stand up.

If you had not bet on that selection, as becareful didn't (and it says on your website clearly...If there is any doubt that the price will not be $4.00 - don't bet!) you would have busted too.

I did not criticise your system without fully assessing it's chances fairly. I don't even need your selections to assess it.

Why?

Because any loss chasing system without a safety stop gap - will sooner or later bust you. In reverse your system says to stop after a winner. Why are you more likely to lose after your first winner? Surely your selections are quality ones which should see you win more than one race out of 32 a day?

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-12 15:31 ]</font>