The Good plus the Bad = Profit

[wesmip1]

All,

Just something I have been playing with recently for those who can't / don't want to sit in front of the screen all day looking for value.

Everywhere and everyone tells you the value is the key, make sure you are getting a better price than what you think the odds should be, and based on my limited experience I have made come up with heaps of systems that do work and make a consistent small profit but they require you to watch every race to see if the value is there just before the jump.

A technique I have been looking at lately is adding the good with the bad.

For Example ... Take a horse whose current form is very good (113, 333, 321, etc) and place him in a bad situation ( top weight and/or bad barrier draw).

The first instance (Good) finds the horses with a good chance of winning and the second instance (Bad) hopefully adds the value.

I have found a couple of systems that do this now and they seem to have produced a consistent profit for the time periods I have tested.

Anyway thats just my opinion of what I have noticed lately.

Good luck

[davez]

been observing similar scenarios wemip, those being BAD + BAD where ocasionally the odds should be blowing out the door, but strangely dont...

[Barny]

All,

Just something I have been playing with recently for those who can't / don't want to sit in front of the screen all day looking for value.

Everywhere and everyone tells you the value is the key, make sure you are getting a better price than what you think the odds should be, and based on my limited experience I have made come up with heaps of systems that do work and make a consistent small profit but they require you to watch every race to see if the value is there just before the jump.

A technique I have been looking at lately is adding the good with the bad.

For Example ... Take a horse whose current form is very good (113, 333, 321, etc) and place him in a bad situation ( top weight and/or bad barrier draw).

The first instance (Good) finds the horses with a good chance of winning and the second instance (Bad) hopefully adds the value.

I have found a couple of systems that do this now and they seem to have produced a consistent profit for the time periods I have tested.

Anyway thats just my opinion of what I have noticed lately.

Good luck
There you go eh ?? Just found this trawling through some old posts. Not so dissimilar to my post !!!

[moeee]

Moeee, you have been TOUd and your post has been deleted. Please do not flame/bait others and post like a 5 year old. Thank you. Moderator.

[Barny]

You cannot keep doing the same wrong things everyday moeee and expect different results.

[Vortech]

Bad Barrier needs to be assessed with assessment of the speed of the race an the track condition.

I have a couple of system with the help of Wesmip that followed this theory but I couldn't stand the run of outs with a strike rate around 15% and avg winners of $8.00

You would have months and month of no profit but then good months. Your stake had to be low.

Jockeys like B.Rawiller and Colless are the key men from taking a bad barrier draw and slotting in nicely where low key jockey with sit at the back or get stuck 3 wide.

[rails run]

I think bad barriers are a good place to start if looking for value. A genuinely good horse will overcome the problem far easier than the market calculates.
I remember following a thread where the writer backed all favs drawn in the widest barrier between $3.00 and $4.20 in the morning paper pre-post. He had 27 consequetive winners although he only had 4-7 bets per week. A fluke? Maybe but it's one ******** of streak, me thinks :)