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becareful

10th July 2002, 07:07 PM

Well it looks like the "Curse of the Propun Forum" has hit Bert. Result for the day was very disappointing with a loss of $1150

For those who did not get the trial today I have listed all the selections below along with the bet amount as specified by the spreadsheet, dividend (UNITAB as this is the one that Bert quotes on his website) and running total. The rules of the system say only bet if selection is over $4.00 so I have listed the Unitab approximate for each selection - this price was taken from the Sky TV coverage (if under $10 on meetings with SKY) or from the Internet on early Belmont races or where price was over $10 (to get accurate price). The price was from as close to the jump as possible whilst still allowing time to bet on Unitab. The bet amount is taken from the spreadsheet (rounding up as per the rules) and my "target" for the day was a $5 profit (assuming a bank of $1000). If div approx was less than $4 at jump then no bet (but I have still listed the selections and any divs). Betting was win-only so I have not listed any place divs (weren't that many anyway).

<TABLE BORDER CELLSPACING=1 CELLPADDING=7>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


Race</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


Sel($ ) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


Bet</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


Div</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


Total</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


SR1</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


3 ( 5.9)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-2</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


MR1</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


6 (18.1)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


1</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-3</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR1</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


1 ( 1.7)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


1.7</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-3</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR1</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2 ( 1.3)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-3</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


SR2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


6 (13.2)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


1</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-4</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


MR2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


4 ( 3.7)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


3.2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-4</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2 ( 7.9)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-6</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


11 ( scr) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2 ( 1.4)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-6</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


5 ( 6.9)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-8</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


SR3</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


8 (18.4)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


1</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-9</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


MR3</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


19 (14.5)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-11</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR3</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


1 ( 7.6)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


3</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-14</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR3</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


3 ( 6.7)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


4</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-18</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR3</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2 ( 4.2)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


8</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-26</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


SR4</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


1 ( 4.4)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


10</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-36</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


MR4</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


No Selection</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR4</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2 ( 5.3) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


10</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-46</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR4</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


3 ( 4.0)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-46</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR4</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


5 ( 3.1)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-46</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR1</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


4 ( 6.6)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


10</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-56</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


SR5</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


5 (13.5)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


5</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-61</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


MR5</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


6*( 4.2)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


21</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-82</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR5</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2 (15.8)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


6</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-88</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR5</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


5*( 4.7) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


26</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-114</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


11 ( scr) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


SR6</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


5 ( 8.1)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


17</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-131</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


MR6</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2 ( scr)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR6</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


3*( scr)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP"> </TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR6</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


3 ( 5.2)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


33</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-164</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR3</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


1 ( 3.7)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


4.2</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-164</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


SR7</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


1 (24.8)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


8</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-172</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


MR7</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2*(11.7) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


17</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-189</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR7</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


3 (12.4)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


18</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-207</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR7</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


1 ( 3.5)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-207</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR7</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


7 ( 6.7)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


38</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-245</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR4</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


1*( 3.5)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-245</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR4</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


4 ( 5.7)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


54</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-299</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


SR8</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2*(10.4)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


33</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-332</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


SR8</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


4 ( 3.4)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


3.5</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-332</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


MR8</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2*( 6.7)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


60</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-392</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


MR8</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


6 ( 3.9)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-392</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


BR8</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


1*( 2.5)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


2.4</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-392</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


AR8</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


3 ( 3.1)</TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


2.9</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-392</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR5</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


5 ( 4.5) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


114</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-506 </TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR6</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2 ( 5.3) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


119</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-625</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR6</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


4 ( 4.5) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


180</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-805</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR7</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


4*( 5.5) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


180</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-985</TD>
</TR>
<TR><TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


PR8</TD>
<TD WIDTH="24%" VALIGN="TOP">


2 ( 7.0) </TD>
<TD WIDTH="17%" VALIGN="TOP">


165</TD>
<TD WIDTH="19%" VALIGN="TOP">


0.0</TD>
<TD WIDTH="22%" VALIGN="TOP">


-1150</TD>
</TR>
</TABLE>

* indicates a UBUTEE selection

As you can see the selections were pretty disappointing with only a few short-priced winners getting home (all ruled out by the $4 rule).

The only questionable call in the betting was with Belmont Race 3 - as there was no sky coverage of this race I was relying on the radio coverage and the internet odds to decide whether I would have placed a bet. At jump time the internet (UNITAB) was showing 3.70 so no bet under the rules of the system (it was slightly over $4 on NSW but as I was simulating betting with Unitab that did not apply).

I think this demonstrates the great danger in a "target" betting system (or a loss-chasing staking system) as the bet size and loss you make starts to escalate rapidly if you do have an extended run of outs like Bert had today.

Certainly on today's results the selections do not look like they are worth the price being charged and the system itself (ie. target betting) can easily be applied to your own selections if you really wanted to but I would only do it if your selections make a profit at level stakes. I think Bert has just been lucky to not hit a run like this previously (actually looking at his results he did have a wipeout on his grey/trots last month and there was also another day when the last bet of the day saved him from another big wipeout).

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-10 19:29 ]

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-10 19:30 ]

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-07-10 19:31 ]

Equine Investor

10th July 2002, 07:16 PM

Thanks for posting that information becareful. It's pretty much as I suspected. Whilst I am open to new ideas and even staking plans, some things always remain unchanged. Logical mathematics will always prevail in the end and no matter how much someone argues that their system is different, if it doesn't win at level stakes, it won't win by staking.

Bert tried to tell me I was wrong, and that just doesn't make sense. There are much smarter mathematicians than myself with University Degrees who know this to be true.

"Not one losing day since September 2001."

I have been in this game long enough to spot illogical and improbable claims from afar.

As far as having cracked the trainers methods etc...I think this speaks for itself.

I'll stick to my system which shows a level stakes profit.

becareful, had you employed this system with a $1,000 bank, chasing a $5.00 profit - you would have lost your $1,000.00.

Risking $1000.00 to win $5.00 is simply illogical. There is no way you can win in the end. It's like backing an odds on favourite. You'd be better putting the $1,000 on a favourite showing $1.05 the win, that way you at least win $50.00.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-10 19:20 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-10 19:26 ]

10th July 2002, 08:28 PM

I forgive you for getting the wrong figures because it's only your first day .
I have no idea how you made today a loss of that much.
We all won , Yes I agree we had a bad day , we only got one winner at $4 or better in all states , I just checked that with my customers, so I think you should perhaps download the spreadsheet again and see where you went wrong.

I have now added the results to it.

regards Bert

becareful

10th July 2002, 08:28 PM

lambarsua,

I haven't checked his results but it seems his students decided the $3.70 Unitab bet was OK because it was above $4 on NSW Tab. It was certainly a marginal call (and on his site he advises not placing a bet if you have doubts that it will meet the $4 cutoff) so depending on which way you went you either finished $10 up or $1000 down. I think I will leave this system for others - I prefer my "old thinking" system that shows a good profit on level stakes - it may not win every day but at least I don't need 100 good days to make up for 1 bad day!

10th July 2002, 08:29 PM

ANOTHER POINT
I have already posted, Your way of betting does not work on my selections.

regards Bert

10th July 2002, 08:37 PM

Is Bert arguing that you increase the size of your bets until you find a winner then stop?

Risking $1000 to win $5 is not worthwile.

A whole days effort for $5 or $10 - what a waste of time!!!!

becareful

10th July 2002, 08:38 PM

On 2002-07-10 20:28, bertsbest wrote:
I forgive you for getting the wrong figures because it's only your first day .
I have no idea how you made today a loss of that much.

How gracious of you to forgive me! Lucky I wasn't betting with real money! My results are here for all to see so maybe you can tell me where I went wrong. As far as I can see the only difference was that I decided a $3.70 approx on UNITAB did not meet the $4 minimum and therefore I did not place that bet - I know it ended up over $4 but at 20 seconds before the jump it was showing $3.70 and that is when I made the decision. Surely you can see that the decision not to bet (based on the advice on your website not to bet if in doubt about the div being over $4) was a reasonable decision. Basically from then on it was all downhill and the increasing bet size through loss chasing savaged the bank.

As I have said many times previously on this forum I have no problem with others betting how it suits them - it is just this plan is not for me - the difference between a small win and a huge loss is just too fine. Any system where the potential loss is 100 times worse than your daily target is just too scary for me. Also to make the type of money I can get out of my system would require a truly enormous bank and probably placing bets with 20 different bookies.

becareful

10th July 2002, 08:39 PM

On 2002-07-10 20:29, bertsbest wrote:
ANOTHER POINT
I have already posted, Your way of betting does not work on my selections.

regards Bert

Bert,
I followed your system EXACTLY (as I understood it, anyway) with the only difference being the decision on the $3.70 starter. It seems your selections do not work on your system!

Equine Investor

10th July 2002, 08:54 PM

One further point on this system...

Bert says he is extending it to cover Greyhounds. Well unless you are getting fixed odds or betting on track, there is no possible way to make it work. The pools are so small, that there is no way you can accurately predict the starting price on any TAB runner.

The spreadsheets for some reason include quinella(column X) and trifecta (columnY)and place bets, with SP prices etc.
This is very confusing when trying to work out the win only component.

10th July 2002, 08:54 PM

I understand that you made that decision, but that was a definate bet at starting time as we (several students ) were all watching all 3 states prices on Austext , because as you said sky didn't show it.
Nsw was floating between $4 and $4.30
Vic was around $4.60
Unitab was $4 to $4.20, Unitab did go down to $3.70 , but was back up when we placed our bets.
And we all got on .
Sure we had a bad day , but how did you get to $1150
Our records here show $277 with a profit of $21.20 7.7%
if you think that is peanuts, try and get the bank to pay that.

I have uploaded the finished spreadsheet so you can see where you may have gone wrong.

I just received a call from WA and the price there was $4.40 and he collected.

As a Beginner of one day , it is easy to make a mistake, You may not see it , but I know that $1150 loss is one of them.

regards Bert

10th July 2002, 09:07 PM

4-5 hours work for $5-20 is not very good.
Works out at $1-$5/hour.
That's less than Macdonalds!!!!

You also have to risk at least $500 to achieve this.

Crazy Clint picked 7 winners from 16. Much easier to make money by selecting winners rather than chasing losses.

becareful

10th July 2002, 09:18 PM

Bert - If you have a look at my bets above you can see how I got to 1150 loss. After that $3.70 bet (unfortunately I do not have Austext so was relying on Unitab internet site for that race) the bets were 8, 17, 18, 38, 54, 33, 60, 114, 119, 180, 180 and 165 - most of the damage was in those last Belmont races.

Lambrussa - Yes Bert's system does require you to increase bet size as your losing streak continues (basically you are always aiming to win back what you have lost plus $5. So if you are down $500 and the next runner is a $10 chance you would be betting around $56, if it is a $5 chance you need to bet $102 - this is where you get into serious trouble very quickly if you have a long losing streak.

Basically as I see it the system is simply based on having a large enough number of selections each day that you are almost certain to have at least one win, combined with a low goal so your first bets are small (stops things getting out of hand too quick), a large bank to cover your losing streak, and balls the size of a bull to keep increasing your bet when you are losing big time. The staking/target plan is nothing special (any person with a knowledge of Excel could knock that up in a few hours) so you are really just paying for the selections - and as you say they don't look like anything special.

My advice is to save your money - if you really like the sound of the system then work up your own spreadsheet for the target betting and put in your own selections. But I wouldn't do it because any increasing staking plan with no limits is just too dangerous.

10th July 2002, 09:28 PM

If anyone out there wants to trial this type of staking on Clint's Crazy selections go ahead. You've have made your $5 profit after only a couple of bets. Sure beats paying money for selections which at best can only be described as "ordinary".

You can then put the money saved from not paying for tips into your "mortgage" as Bert suggested.

One thing I've learnt from punting/investing is to cut your losses short and let your profits run. Bert seems to think the opposite is true.

Sure you have to take a profit at some point - but a $5 profit is miserable. I've made $2-4,000 some days. Those days sure make up for plenty of losing days.

Big Orange

10th July 2002, 09:28 PM

Bert,

I'm sure the forum members are grateful for you providing an excellent demonstration of how desperate, loss-chasing, target-betting plans can do nothing to inject any value into poorly made selections.

Whether or not you busted your bank today (it looks like you did), it is clear that it is not a viable method. If you have to grasp at straws and claim an extremely marginal selection as the only difference between a tiny day's profit or a massive bank wipeout, then something's not quite right.

And you want people to pay you for this?

10th July 2002, 09:53 PM

Hi Be careful
Ofcourse I was watching Unitab as I bet via internet on my account and the price is still still there NOW if you want to have a look

the bets were 8, 17, 18, 38, 54, 33, 60, 114, 119, 180,
180 and 165 -
Those bets is where you made the mistake .
The first bet showed more than $5 so we rounded it down to $5 and that makes the first bet only $2 NOT $8 like in your tally
The second bet was better than $15 so we took it as $15 , that makes the bet $1 not $17
and so on.
No wonder you ran out of bank.

Don't worry , this is normal with beginners, you are allowed to make mistakes , so before anyone puts money on , I want them to learn how yo work the spreadsheet, then and only they start with a small target such as $5 and don't try to be greedy .
it only takes a mistake to stuff things up , so learn your tools first.

Have you downloaded the spreadsheet again , that has the results on it now
regards Bert

becareful

10th July 2002, 10:35 PM

Bert,

That string of bets that I listed were the ones AFTER Belmont Race 3. ie. The $8 bet was on SR7 (showing 24.80 so $8 bet), then MR7 (showing 11.70 so $17 bet), etc. If you looked at my results you would see that - my first bets were $2, $1, etc. I did download your spreadsheet to compare and the results are similar to mine - we had some differences on starting price which gave slightly different bet sizes but nothing too major. Also I had a few bets you missed as my data said $4.20, etc when you had $3.90. Only major difference is you took the bet on PR3 and then stopped for the day - I did not take the bet based on my data and blew my bank.

I suggest you try putting in the bets for the rest of the day in your spreadsheet assuming you did not bet on PR3 and see what happens - very scary!

If anyone wants a copy of my spreadsheet to check my results just email me.

Equine Investor

10th July 2002, 11:03 PM

The bottom line is that Bert claims to have cracked trainers methods etc. This is the whole basis of his plan, so whether you missed the one selection or not, he certainly hasn't cracked this particular area given his strike rate.

Reenster

11th July 2002, 08:24 AM

Ever wonder how false favourites are created? Imagine we're well into one of these losing streaks and Bert comes up with a selection that (realistically) has a 5% chance of winning ($20). But Bert knows the trainer's habits. We're down $500+ for the day but this'll get us out and give us our $5 (enough to buy tomorrow's Sportsman but then we don't need the Sportsman when we have Bert so that's $5 profit woohoo).

The horse starts at $4.30 and is anchored by the weight of everyone's money (Doh).

Keep going Bert. You have nerves of steel and you're creating value (mmmmm value) aplenty for everyone else. For that I thank you.

11th July 2002, 10:19 AM

I just find it amazing that from the hundreds of people on Free trials and subscribers around the Country and some overseas, I am have not received any emails even asking about that price in question.
From what I can gather , this forum is mostly supported by people who say they are prof punters or at least bragg that they are.
This type of experience does not come overnight and I respect the fact that you think you know eveything there is to know , if you are indeed prof punters, this type of profession takes a lot of anitial studies.
With all that knowledge within this group, nobody seems to question that "be careful" could have made a mistake.
I don't expect anyone to believe me either, That is why I give a FREE Trial and only a couple of you did so, only the one that got it wrong is talking and without bothering to check it yourself you criticise everything that you don't believe or understand.
So what if it is different than what you were taught.
If you don't check it yourself and just want to knock new things, you will never really know if you are missing out .

I am sure that from my whole mailing list , if some people also had the result that be careful had , I would get flooded with calls and questions, instead I got some praises.

A couple of posts want Mathematical analysis , I reckon if you can come up with a few million dollars I might buy a cruiser and move around a few islands for a while.
These Math analysis only prove things if they are on solid Mathematical foundations.
You all throw up the question about the price drop if thousands of people bet on the same horse.
Mathematically that is correct and I agree that this could indeed drop the price.
But in real life it is not correct to assume that.
There are other factors involved, such as , the size of the pool and which states are they betting the most and in which states punters are following the money and in which states they are backing this one to beat the favourite if our is not.

There are more , but I am sure some of you know that , you just don't want to consider them, so you can shoot yet another system down, without even at least checking it out.

Some of you asked what my strike rate is ,
As some of the learned people here should agree, strike rate means nothing without getting the right price too and also have the capability to collect a profit.
those are the 3 things that matter most if you want to be successful in punting.
These 3 things combined are what is making my system successful, although yesterday the strike rate was only 1 in 7 (6 winners) from 44 possible bets.
that was a bad day and the prices were also shocking and still the third thing came up and made a profit.
Most days we have been collecting a profit within the first few races, and even if we have to wait sometimes for a few , the strike rate including short prices is still better than most tipsters although at short prices you are battling uphill.

So whatever systems you try , those are the critical foundations you need.
But to just judge a system on strike rate alone , will not prove that it is a good system.

I shall be too busy to get ready for the weekend now, so I won't be coming back here to answer any of you.
You know where to find me.
May the cash be with you
regards bert

Shaun

11th July 2002, 10:59 AM

Hi Bert....as i was the one that started all this i guess i should have my say.....if i ever come up with something that works remind me nerver to display it here......i know 90% of the people on this forum provide useful information and it is true if you find a money maker why sell it.....i have to hand it to bert in not backing down from his system and if it works for him good on it....yes i am haveing a look at the free trial today so we will see how it goes.....good luck in the future bert.....Shaun

The Catparrot

11th July 2002, 12:10 PM

I must admit, I raised a few queries about Bert's method.
But Shaun you are so right. I was looking forward from memory to watching EIs Stable System in action until others shot it down before it could even be given a fair go.
I have my own stable system and I'm doing very well out of it.

michaelg

11th July 2002, 12:13 PM

Hi, Bert.
Would there be any merit in reducing the minimum allowable dividend of $4.00 to say, $3.50? I realise the outlay will increase as losers are struck, but the strike rate of winners will also increase. From my understanding, this might have avoided the criticism directed against yesterday's performance even though one day's results is hardly conclusive.
Is the $4.00 minimum a notional figure or did you actually test a lesser cut-off dividend, and consequently discovered that $4.00 was the ideal minimum dividend?

Shaun

11th July 2002, 04:07 PM

I really think there is merit in a stable system like bert has because like he says the trainers are there to train the horses to provide the owners with the prize money.....so for them to stay in business they have to win...the only problem i have with berts system is the amount of bets...30+ bets a day is to much for me to handle...but if he wins in the end and his customers are happy well so be it....because if they were not happy they would not subscribe.....we all have our own ideas and i hope the day i post another one of my systems for your comments that you go easier on me than you have on bert.