Who will win the Cox Plate?

[Neil]

Who will win the Cox Plate? What do you think?

[Real Deal]

Very interesting read. About the only place i have read to totally dis regard Makybe Diva. What it says makes sense i just wonder if they took into account that Makybe has been set for this race, The last 2 springs it has been set for the cup and provided its best run of the campaign on Cup day. From this assesment i rate Makybe ahead of Lad of the Manor even after the result last time at Moonee Valley.

[brave chief]

His argument against MD isn't very convincing. Not enough evidence to say she doesn't like the Valley - only 3 starts with 2 close up 2nds over distances short of her best, early in her campaigns when she had bigger fish to fry much later on.

He says its because of her come-from-behind style of racing. Yet he reckons Xcellent is a genuine chance. X will most likely sit behind MD in the run himself, as its his only racing style. I'm also gambling that X has been set for the Cup & not the Plate, while MD has been set for the Plate & the Cup is merely an afterthought.

[jonron]

Havent read the assessments mentioned as yet,but do recall Freedman saying the Cox was the race he was training her for,so would agree with the chief,the Cup is an afterthought depnding how she pulls up after the Cox I guess.

Do recall Moroney saying after Xcellent won the Kelt that he thought the Cox was the ideal race for him,and no mention of the Cup. IMO they will run the quinella,but not sure which will win.Only problem for the "X" factor is the weather forecast for rain.Although his breeding would suggest he should handle it,he failed in the heavy in the Derby.

Didnt think they would start the Diva in the Cup with the big weight,but she did go up 4.5kgs last year and still won,and the money that has gone on would suggest she will run.



Anyone watch Racing Retro last week?Richard Freedman was completely non committal as to whether she will or wont.Interesting.

[mad]

I'm a massive Diva fan, so Diva for me all the way in the Cox Plate. I'll tip her, back her, talk her up and take her for long walks on the beach if needs be.

Diva will win.
Go Diva.

[Stix]

LOTM for me...

[Real Deal]

in that case give me a call mad and i will walk with you with the other reign.

[BORDI]

i love the diva....

she lost to lad by 0.1 lengths at the valley. lad is a one of the inform gallopers going around and mind you this 0.1 length win was at lads track with diva preparing for a bigger race. this trip is 240m longer with perhaps rain, boss at the tym mentioned he hardly pushed her and freedman has set her for this race. freedman has something up his sleeve and i cant see her settleing more than 6-8 off the pace at the turn. if she busts the slightest sweat then she will make that ground in 200m as she did with grand armee and her trial run on the w/e. i dont wanna get over confident, however, i will back her for every trip in every race. she is the greatest.....

cheers

matt..

[Matilda]

I still have a feeling that she will still missed out (I mean winning the race) as the MV track might be just too short for her. It's all base on te timing for big races. She might need to get 6 wide at the 400m. Also she might get into some trouble as she is in at barrier 4.

X has a perfect distance record but Coleman might not have the right timing compare to aust jockey. Also the track might be dead or worst coming the weekend.

I might risk both of them to catch a big tri. That's gambling.

I might also risk the 3 yrs old as both are not as excellent as Octagonal. GO win was excellent in Guineas but I believe that MV might be a bit short at the straight for him.

Lad and FOO are my pick with Kid and Confectioner to follow.

go punting....!!!

[Raw Instinct]

Don't even think for a minute Lad of the Manor doesn't like the wet he loves it go no further than the sire of the his Dam Woodman there might not be a better wet track sire going around they all run in it and absolutely thrive in it. I have heard so many tell me that Lad won't run the trip but I feel this arguement is a little flawed he has gone around this journey twice now with a 2nd and a 3rd both to Makybe Diva however they were also both at her track Flemington. When she beat him last time I just saw what I needed to out of him he was an absolute muck lather before the race and he still finished about a half a length behind the great one.

Make no mistakes about it from the 1st time he set foot on the track this spring he was set for this race and it is at a track he loves not Makybe Diva and not Flemington. The biggest danger to him in my mind is Greys Inn he is a damn good horse who won't be back last or 2nd last and he has shown a penchant for getting home hard in quality races, I am sorry to all Makybe Diva fans out there don't get me wrong I don't hate the horse I backed her for alot of her earlier starts actually including her 1st Cup win for an absolute stack but these days she doesn't even get close to the odds that get me interested and for mine she is drastically underpriced in this race.

For all of you who have backed her good luck she is going to have to be a super horse and I do think she is the best stayer I have seen but at this distance at this track she has to be a query I will take my chances and am extremely confident.

[xptdriver]

Gday All

I doubt there is a bigger Makybe Diva fan than me... but I am not going to back her in the Plate...

There said it :)

As has been metioned in this thread she is mighty short, too short for my liking. When I rated the race she could only come in 6th, mind you that is a fairly compressed rating spread tho. I have Xcellent on top with no real confidence. Why shouldnt I be confident about this bloke? his form says he wins.. But it is kiwi form, and we know that these days it does'nt always stack up.. I look back over his last 5 starts.. 4 G1 wins out of 5, but the big query is that all the G 1's are kiwi G 1's, he came over here and failed miserably at G1 Level in last year's AJC Derby beaten 10 lengths.. that is why I am not confident..

Lad of the Manor and Lotteria share the next line. Obviously Lotteria is the big over In my opinion, her form has been solid including a close up 3rd in the Epsom and a nice, but close, win in the Gr 2 Shannon. Lad of the Manor has been impressive winning 2 out of his last 3 starts at Gr 2 level and placing in the Turnbull, his last run at G1 level was a 4/7, beaten 4.5 in the Aust Cup earlier in the year.. so maybe class could be a worry.

These 2 are followed by God's Own, who couldnt help but be impressed by THAT win,(there was also a fantastic run in that race from Primus.. get on next time)... His rise to G 1 level is nothing short of astounding, but the dampener for me is there is NO G Boss steering this time and is untried at the distance... and to round out the top 5 is Confectioner... I dont have a real wrap for this bloke but the numbers speak for themselves.. he has performed adequately at G 1 level, has seen the track, and is yet to be out of the money( 1/1/3) after 5 goes at the distance

Makybe Diva's last G1 was in Japan where she finished midfield.. but as we know that race has proven to be a resonable form race.. She has contested 3 Gr 2 for 2 wins and a placing in her last 3 starts.. I fear the track may well beat her here.. They run this race at Flemington.. she just wins

So with no confidence that is my opinion of the Cox.. Xcellent has the superior G 1 form of late.. and deserves to be looked at very closely

Below are my full field ratings for the big race

Good Luck if you choose to have a bet

8 XCELLENT 34
2 LAD OF THE MANOR 32
12 LOTTERIA 32
13 GOD'S OWN 30
4 CONFECTIONER 28
10 MAKYBE DIVA 27
14 HOTEL GRAND 26
5 DESERT WAR 24
1 GREYS INN 24
6 FIELDS OF OMAGH 23
11 SKY CUDDLE 22
9 OUTBACK PRINCE 21
3 SUPER KID 15
7 TOSEN DANDY 11

[Sportz]

I agree. If the race was at Flemington, it wouldn't even be a contest. A lot different here.

[Raw Instinct]

I agree at Flemington she wins but it isn't this is the worst track in australia to try and pick a winner at because there as so many horses that do not handle the surface and the ones that do grow an extra leg when they are on it. I feel that there are only 3 horses that will handle the surface they are Lad of the Manor, Greys Inn who ran a mighty race on the Strathayr in Hong Kong behind Vengance of Rain and Fields of Omagh who has shown an affinity with the track I just question if he is going aswell as in the past.

I amnot saying that the others won't handle the track I just question if they will find there best on it where I think the other 3 will. I would like to say one last thing I have never said that Makybe Diva cannot beat these horses I did say she won't beat Lad of the Manor at this track in this race.

[Raw Instinct]

XPT

I couldn't agree more on the Kiwi horses mate I think the only one that has ever done anything good for me is Miss Potential the rest owe me alot other than maybe Calveen yet to win but has run good placings at very good odds.

[Lady Frisco]

Diva just needs the perfect sit and a clear run for the short straight and the story is over. That said, getting the perfect sit and a clear run tends to be the hard part of a race. Thats up to the jockey. They say discounting her would be punting suicide. They said that about El Sig as well. I think this time however, they are probably right.

Xcellent, well everything about his form says winner. Except of course unless you add some water. Too many other horses with decent wet track form here. Sure, it was only one start in the wet, but 10 lengths doesnt bode well. Also, as XPT has already pointed out, NZ form in Australia doesnt a champion make.

Lad will make a very bold showing. But he is giving too much to the Diva. This isnt one of his better distances, and the most he really has going for him is a perfect record at this track. But as with the diva, leaving him out is bad Mojo..

As for who is going to win. I think for once, thats a good question. With other races, its never been so hard. Sure, my pick may not have been the winner, but at least I could actually pick one before. Thinking I might sit the plate out this year and concentrate one whats happening in sydney..

Besides, if what I expect to happen in the first in sydney does happen, I doubt that I will still be coherant come the Cox Plate. :D

[Shaun]

111 8 Xcellent (NZ)
102 2 Lad of the Manor (NZ)
100 13 God's Own (14)
98 12 Lotteria
97 10 Makybe Diva (GB)
96 14 Hotel Grand
92 4 Confectioner

[jonron]

The X factor will come into play here.They say he beat nothing in NZ,but Distinctly Secret is no chaff bandit and ran some great races here.Interesting to note Chris Munces comments about everyone saying his NZ form is suss,but any horse that can miss the start,cop a couple of checks in running,get turned sideways on the turn and still win easily at WFA against older more seasoned horses must have a stack of ability.I believe he will be the next superstar and will prove that status on Saturday.And the $7.50 fixed odds I took will do me nicely.My only concern is the weather,but IMO if he does not reach great heights this year,he certainly will next year.Maybe I am a year too early,only time will tell.starting this week.

[ijuandaQLD]

i would hand the race to makybe if there were only 9 or 10 horses in the field yet being 14 she might c a few more ****s on the way home in that case LOTM and Lotteria are her dangers

[Rudolph]

Hotel Grand for me, if he doesn't get caught wide then he will go mighty close.

[INTERGAZE]

be a believer in the diva ......it is BUCKETING down here in Melbourne, absolutely BUCKETING i tells ya.
Have something on Sarerra in Race 9 #9, a nice daily double....
then put it all on TREWLY SPECIAL on Sat night at the Meadows dishlickers, in the Topgun race.

[goldmember]

I reckon Makybe Diva WILL WIN, but ratings for a slow track:

110 LAD OF THE MANOR
100 CONFECTIONER
100 FIELDS OF OMAGH
100 OUTBACK PRINCE
100 MAKYBE DIVA
100 LOTTERIA
95 SUPER KID
95 DESERT WAR
95 XCELLENT


Last week was ready to bet lunchtime sat- no phone line and that went on till wed afternoon , fricken Telstra they are pathetic and missed out on the cup quin and tri.

Rated:

120 DIZELLE
110 RAILINGS / EYE POPPER
100 CARTE DIAMOND
97 MUMMIFY
95 EL SUGUNDO

So I didnt bet and just watched the races , winner after winner after winner coming in. S.O.B

[thefan]

1.lad of the manor
2.makybe diva


damn tri nations..i was saving my money last week for the match and really felt railings had it in the bag..one regret...

[mad]

The Diva has no wet track form - eh?

I remember the BMW at Randwick not so long ago, a quagmire if i remember correctly, she blew them all away. She'll do it again.

I suppose two Melbourne Cups and a coupla other silly little races as well stand for nothing these days.

Lad of the what? How many Cups he won?
He's a 1600M specialist and nothing else. Especially up against the bums running tommorrow.

That's my two cents anyway - getting fired up, excuse me.

[Sportz]

mad,

I don't think anyone's saying that Makybe Diva's got no wet track form. If they are, they don't know what they're talking about, because she loves it. But Lad Of The Manor is also pretty handy in it.

[thefan]

if i recalled correctly i read that l.o.m hasnt been defeated on that same track yet

[mad]

Yeah sorry Sportz and everyone, i am getting fired up but i think my point is valid all the same. The Diva rated 4th or 5th according to some peoples ratings due to a wet track?????

If the Diva does not win it will be by a bee's willy. I doubt very much she will come in 4th or 5th with Lad 2.5 lengths ahead of her - Come on. This is one of the best horses i have ever seen - ever.

[mad]

if i recalled correctly i read that l.o.m hasnt been defeated on that same track yet
He run against this field before?

[bl4dez]

lol how many race he have on the track?
1,2?
what distance?
1600?

[mad]

The Diva has no wet track form - eh?

I remember the BMW at Randwick not so long ago, a quagmire if i remember correctly, she blew them all away. She'll do it again.

I suppose two Melbourne Cups and a coupla other silly little races as well stand for nothing these days.

Lad of the what? How many Cups he won?
He's a 1600M specialist and nothing else. Especially up against the bums running tommorrow.

That's my two cents anyway - getting fired up, excuse me.
Thank you BL4,

He a legend though - LOL

[Raw Instinct]

I have been on Lad for ages and to be honest I am sick to death of people rubbishing him I have never rubbished the Diva at all she is up there with the best I have seen but I think she is going to have to be better than anyone thinks she is to win this race.

All I have heard is that Lad of the Manor cannot run the 2000m last time I checked he did run 2nd at Flemington to Makybe Diva beaten 3/4 of a length or something I really liked what I saw from him fighting to the line. I also felt that race was run alot harder upfront than what this race will be today it will not be hard run unless that Japanese plodder decides to go nuts which isn't entriely impossible.

There are only a few real wet trackers Lad of the Manor, Super Kid, Makybe Diva and Sky Cuddle in race book order the rest of them really might struggle in this ground it is hard to know though I amnot even sure how wet it is.

I am hoping for a good race and ofcourse I want the Lad to win I have backed him several times already for this race but I won't be whinging if Makybe Diva or anything else wins just might be alot poorer.

[strummer]

Howdy all.My first post.Figured I,d been reading the forum for long enough and time to make a contribution.Re Xcellents' wins.It is true that his wins have been at home where the class is not as strong, however I have never heard the normally conservative Moroney rate a horse like he has this one.He has plans to take on the world Japan Dubai etc.-even setting up a website for the horse{must be one smart animal}.Doubt it will run if the track is wet,they will bide their time.Anyway,can`t wait for the race,if x is out it's Gods Own for me.
.

[jonron]

xcellent
maykbe diva
desert war
lad of the manor

[brave chief]

Makybe Diva $2.60
Lad of the Manor $6.50
Confectioner $6.50
Super Kid $6.50
God's Own $8.67
Desert War $26.00

So, MD is a clear pick, but under value. So only interest bets for me as I dont like to bet against my top selection. SK & Confectioner are over the odds in my book. Both hitting the line very well recently. Not getting carried away with God's Own - I watched the Guineas replay yesterday, it was good but not great. But good 3yo's can & do run bold races in this race, and at the very least he's an impressive type.

Couldnt really come into Gai's horses - I guess I'm rating the Mlb form a notch above Syd this spring. DW will be tough but Lotty isnt accellerating & a query at the trip. Also taking on Xcellent's NZ form & ability in wet.

[downbylaw]

Does anyone here use empowerisv? They seem to have some pretty good results that look a little bit hard to beleive. Some feedback would be great. thanks

[Raw Instinct]

I was totally wrong Lad of the Manor wasn't even good enough to beat some very ordinary horses home ie. Lotteria and Sky Cuddle congrats to Makybe Diva and her fans she had it won at the 800 when they were walking and got onto Xcellents back that was when it was over. I will say one other thing doubt it makes much difference but I can see why Johns doesn't get many rides in town that was pretty ordinary.


I have never been more wrong in a big race before this time I was so far wrong it wasn't funny the way I feel right now I will give this game away after next week just couldn't believe how ordinary he ran.

[mad]

Chin up Raw mate,

Was an ordinary performance, i certainly expected better. Nevermind though, you'll get 'em next week!

[Raw Instinct]

Mad that was the bit that was disappointing just couldn't beleive it was such a bad run it was unbelievable.

[mecurial]

It must be noted of Moroney's comments during the week, something along the lines of

"If they want to loiter around the 1000 we won't be afraid to take off"

HA. Admittedly, Xcellent skipped around to the outside VERY quickly, and I thought, this is a real go. Never had the fortitude to go though, and although the track didn't suit, it couldn't be blamed, wouldn't of taken them.

Massive run from Lotteria, I sure underestimated that one. Some of those runners though, Greys Inn, Super Kid, Lad of the Manor, Confectioner, God's Own...well I'll be happy to listen to some of the excuses fettered out tommorow.

[strummer]

So much for my assessment.I have to give xcellent the benefit of the doubt over the track conditions this time,and maybe the ride(did all the jocks have instructions to go at the turn?).It aint over till the fat lady sings(the Diva)

[BORDI]

i love the diva

[Matilda]

She is just too good. That's the right word "MD is toying with her employee".

The second best was FOO....