Favourites Plan???

[Equine Investor]

A friend of mine uses this method to back favourites, I am a little sceptical, but like to know what everyone else thinks.

Based on this theory.

1. Favourites win only about 30% of the time.

2. Many "false" favourites are in lower class races, higher class horses which are favourites have a better strike rate than 30%
(my belief is that the strike rate should remain the same).

What he does is look at the highest class race in each state each day. Then he backs the favourite in each race to win a certain target. He says this way, he is eliminating a long run of outs by basically only backing four or five horses each day out of a possible say 16 -24 favourites.

He does seem to win quite often.

Any thoughts?

[Equine Investor]

Just did a quick check yesterday's results:-

BENDIGO R6 2 Romantic Sea $2.90.

HAWKESBURY R9 7 Desert Brigadier $3.00

GRAFTON R7 2 Outyonder (2nd)

GATTON R7 4 Glittering Affair (unplaced)

MURRAY BRIDGE R5 1 General Magic (unplaced)

NORTHAM R4 4 Kee Bade (2nd)

Still just over 30% win (33.33%), but 66% place.

Mostly either won or came very close to winning which means they were not necessarily false favs. I don't class a favourite as being false if it actually placed in the race.

Also in these races, there seems to be more runs from each runner (usually) in order to more accurately assess winning chances. I'd much rather do form for races where horses have had at least more than 10 starts, than only 2/3 starts.

Interesting!



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-12 13:48 ]</font>

[Reenster]

A quick scan of yesterday's results (I think I got the best class race for each meeting).

Bendigo R6 No.2 Won $2.90/$1.40
Hawkesbury R9 No.7 Won $3.00/$1.40
Murray Bridge R8 No.1 Unplaced
Grafton R7 No2 3rd $1.60
Gatton R7 No4 Unplaced
Northam R4 No4 2nd $1.50

6 selections 2 wins. 33% S/R. Slight loss.

Damn tootin' you beat me to it EI. Good work.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Reenster on 2002-07-12 13:50 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Going back through even more races, it doesn't look too bad at all. Of course there will be marginal calls on what's the best race class wise, sometimes the highest prizemoney race is not the class race and can lead you astray.

I guess the whole mentality of the system is that a favourite in a class 6 is much better than a favourite in a maiden, for example. Therefore the favourite may have the same strike rate roughly, but has the ability to claim favouritism and you know you'll get a run for your money, not a dismal second last.
Therefore, hypothetically, you would not be as likely to suffer a horrid run of outs, whilst still maintaining the 30% strike rate.

:grin: Reenster.

I could have been wrong on a couple as I just took a quick glance on the day's runsheet, at least we both spotted the two winners for the day!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-12 13:59 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-12 14:13 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Results so far today...

GOULBURN R3 1 Forest Magic (3rd $1.40)

KILMORE R7 2 Cornbread WON $2.60 / $1.50

MOREE R8 12 Spellthorn (unplaced)

Rockhampton R9 4 Laurinel Impulse (unplaced)

Hmmm, 25% strike rate today.




:grin:



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-12 17:11 ]</font>

Maybe you should only look at group races, listed, quality and sat metro open handicaps.

One thing I found that was amazing was the healthy trifecta dividends on favs in group races.

For example Sunline/Shogun Lodge/Defier trifecta in the Doni paid over $200 - yet they were the 3 favs. I know it was a big field, but there were only about 5 or 6 good chances. ALl you had to do was standout Sunline from the next two favs. 5 units costs $10. Yields over $1000. Not bad for a simple combo.

In group races, combos involving 1,2,3 favs works suprising well.

[becareful]

Must admit I have never looked at strike rate of favourites between classes of races. If it did hold that favourites have significantly better strike rate in higher class races then my inclination would be to use this info to back AGAINST the favourite in the lower class races rather than backing with the favourite in the high class ones - they still seem to get rolled a bit too often for the short odds you get.

Maybe this would be a good basis for selection for the allup-place betting favoured by some of the posters here - I think you would still need to do some additional analysis to get a positive return though.

[Equine Investor]

both of you brought up some very good and valid points worth consideration. I have no stats on this method whatsoever, so I might just try getting some this weekend for say 1,000 races or so.

Seems to have quite a good strike rate. If you could solidly get 30% of favs winning without horror runs, and could achieve average returns above $3.30 then there may be something to this.

Lumbarsua, you're quite right. Big race trifectas always pay over the odds, in my opinion. If you can cull a great proportion of the field and leave in only what you consider to be the best chances, if you manage to snare the trifecta, you'll sure get value.

Becareful, even on country tracks this seems to work quite well, because the 30% rule always applies on averages. Therefore if you can sort out where that 30% is most likely to occur, then you've got it.
Similarly, potting the fav in lower class races is something that could be worth investigating. There is a lot of value in those races, if you overlook the favourite.

Especially on heavy tracks, when the favourite is questionable in the going. I.E. Not failed in the heavy, but no previous form on heavy tracks.

[Equine Investor]

So far this plan looks o.k. but only if you apply some further filters.

With no filters over 200 random races, it has an amazing 40% win record.

Average win price is $2.80 and longest run of outs is 8.

Will post further results when I have a bigger sample.

_________________

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I'm on the leader - Go You Good Thing!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-07-12 20:46 ]</font>

[becareful]

Unless I've had more to drink than I thought 40% @ $2.80 gives POT of about 12% - looks pretty good without any additional filters! I am assuming you are using TAB divs in which case it is excellent because you should be able to get better than that ave div with the bookies (since it is based on favourites).

[Equine Investor]

Yes becareful, this is SuperTAB dividends.

But beware, as this is only a relatively small sample, but I am working on a larger sample as we speak!

[Equine Investor]

My eyes are weary,
My fingers numb,
My friend's idea sucks,
Now I am glum!

Seriously, this was looking great til I ran it over 1,000 races...has taken me most of the afternoon, evening and night!

33% win rate only.
Average Dividend $2.67.
Level stakes loss - 11.89%

Ho Hum...back to the drawing board.

Maybe with filters, but I dunno.

Maybe I'll shout him a beer, looks like he's gonna need it when I break the news.

:sad: :sad: :sad:

[hermes]

I know the experience of getting excited about a small sample and working tirelessly on a bigger one only to find what you feared all along.

I note there are services that test systems. Ridiculously expensive for just testing out an idea.

Is there nowhere you can buy a ready-made data base of a decent sample of past races with TAB prices etc so you can test a theory without the thumb work? There are a lot of punters testing a lot of systems all the time. Someone must market a database.

Or is having dozens of old form guides spread out over your loungue room floor for whole afternoons a commonplace throughout the country?

Hermes

[Bhagwan]

Heres a filter you can try.
Last start winners who happen to be Favs today have a 35% strike rate .

20% of winners, regardless of price ,were last start winners.