Money plunges

[Chrome Prince]

Is it just me or is anyone else getting a bit tired of uninformed commentators saying that horses have been plunged when they really have no idea, but just look at what's firmed slightly.

To me a plunge is a fair dinkum go at something in the ring, the horse firms in solidly and everything else blows out in the market.

Example of uninformed commentating:

"They (the professionals) want nothing else than Mr. Celebrity in the ring, they've come for nothing else"

Rubbish - Mr. Celebrity was not the best backed runner all day.

There was money for Bush Honey, Dizelle, Uprize.

Where did Mr. Celebrity run - not informed money at all.

"Johan's Toy is the one the professionals want - the informed money is going on here"

Rubbish all money was on Shania Dane and Lotteria with a nibble at Johan's Toy, how can this be "the one they want"

It just goes on and on with this final pearler after being left with egg on their faces....

"The professionals want Headturner, nothing else, and I can tell you the RIGHT money is on THIS time. This is the one they want."

Rubbish - yes there was a solid move for Headturner, but so was there money for Duelled and Pendragon, in fact it was a battle royale for favouritism. To say Headturner is the only one they want is a false and misleading statement.

Who's money, they weren't there so they don't know - they're guessing and speculating. So all the other times the wrong money was on??? Why didn't they mention that all the other moves for the day were just mug money.

Because on feature days with massive holdings on races all big movements are not mug money.

Absolute dribble.

[kenchar]

CP,

Couldn't agree with you more.
I don't know about saturdays but midweek this is one of my betting strategies, I just love it when the call comes over this is the only one they want, it's been heavily backed on track, and the track is beyond the black stump with 3 bookies that would ****e themselves if someone had a $500 bet.
It's quite funny actually to watch the tabs plunging after these announcements, I just sit here shaking my head.
When this happens my job is then to find the one they DO want.
Today watching the odds on a race and I had my eye on a nag until the last 4 mins or so when it came over the only one THEY want is so and so. THIS announcement stopped me backing the nag and I couldn't see anything else so left the race.
You guessed it never ran a hole.
These announcements save me a lot of losing bets.

Cheers.

Management,
Got to give it you those little stars are clever as soon as one posts.

[gazman]

hey there chrome and kenchar,,,,,,,,,i like this one as well....the smart money has come for this one ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,the educated money has come for this(i've allways wondered what that means is it those people that put that money on go to private school and then uni) and they make it sound like there are couple of hundred big pro punters there with wheelbarrows full of 100$ notes just waiting to unload with 2 mins to go...cheers...gazman.kenchar can you contact me at garrie3@hotmail.com

[Chrome Prince]

gazman, basically they mean that the stable or pro money is on, but most of the time they don't know the real situation. Whenever the tote moves or a bookie winds his odds in a bit they go "oooh it's on!"

The proof they do not know, is the number of times they say it and the horses fail to even run well.

Once in a blue moon they get it right, but the pros and stables keep winning, which proves they are just not within a bull's roar of the truth.

[crash]

Plenty of 'smart money' ends up in bookie's bags. Last Saturday was a very good example. The bookies cleaned up. A good way to go broke is to follow what we might believe is other people's 'smart' money. Besides that, a lot of the big money during the Spring carnivals comes from idiots with large wallets and [usually] a very average understanding of punting.

'I got Chills' recently was a [genuine] 'smart money' move on the bookies by a handful of punters in the know. Creamed 'em and now they [the bookies] want laws against private trials.

[w924]

"Absolute dribble."



Couldn't agree with you more... sometimes the only shortening is the evening out of the state totes.


many years ago, we watched a prominent metro radio race caller (who also loved a bet) go down to the ring, and back a horse that was being specced at long odds., and he had been invited to get on.

He then went back up to to the race calling booth and went to air telling the public of the betting ring movements. We listened with interest... no mention was made of his backed horse..instead the racecaller made cases for a few other horses. The specced horse got up at good odds and the racecaller feigned surprise at the "roughie" that had just saluted.

Gazman and Kenchar, I especially enjoyed your comments... LOL.

I hate it when my selection is tipped as a Late Mail selection... usually means it can't possibly win..and I get real nervous when the race callers mention my selection just prior to a race as being backed in. Reclaim was an example on saturday... ran nowhere, and the only late mail coincider ran nowhere as well.

[Neil]

"Late mail" - that's an absolute joke. I'm amazed some punters take those consistent losing or poor value selections seriously. Late mail is often nothing more than a racecaller's tips. Maybe even the office boy's. It's consistently bad.

Tell me which stable, trainer, owner is so stupd as to give serious winning "Late mail" to be telegraphed to everyone in the mass media?

The David Hayes trained first starter I Got Chills was plunged at Flemington on 1st. October from $14.00 to $5.00 and won by many lengths. Bet you that one wasn't announced over the TV, radio or whatever as "Late Mail". If David Hayes had told the media it was a moral, you can bet David Hayes wouldn't be training it any longer!

As for the accuracy of those "plunge" calls. They are invariably useless. Often they are nothing more than a fictitious "firming" on the tote which does not even correlate with firming in the bookmakers' betting ring. The horse could even be easing in the bookies' betting ring.

Why a "fictious" firming? Because there is a game of pretend going on - the pretense is that the tote and bookies market are similar which is absolute ****.

If a horse firms in the bookies betting ring you know at least someone is getting the longer odds. If a horse "firms" in the tote you know noone is getting the longer odds.

[Oaksnaf]

Fact is, it could just be an individual who has a fair bit of cash and an interest in horse racing and have thrown lets say $50,000 on the horse to win. Big money, yes. Informed opinion, you cannot justify that comment.

[Chrome Prince]

More evidence from the bookies....

$50,000 on Jet Spur @ $4.40
$40,000 on Lotteria @ $3.50
$40,000 on Lad Of The Manor @ $3.10
$6.500 on Serenade Rose @ $16.00
$80,000 on Astronomia @ $2.10
$50,000 on Mr Celebrity @ $2.40
$40,000 on Queen Of The Hill @ $2.05
$40,000 on Astronomia @ $2.10
$40,000 on Gonski @ $10.00

No big bets on Johan's Toy, just a nibble not worthy of noting.

No mention by the commentators of the cash for Lad Of The Manor.

[kenchar]

Hey Neil,

Good to see you get the little stars on your posts too.

[w924]

Tell me which stable, trainer, owner is so stupd as to give serious winning "Late mail" to be telegraphed to everyone in the mass media?



Exactly..

"Late Mail" and "Bookies Tips" are both oxymorons...for those people who believe in the tooth fairy....

[Chrome Prince]

Good old Kenny Callander and his "Market Movers"!

If I hear one more reference to Market Movers by him, I'll need a bucket.

Market Movers are the poorest bet in history, you'd be better backing favourites straight out.

All value has gone, they are ALWAYS unders.

[Mancunian]

Good old Kenny Callander and his "Market Movers"!

If I hear one more reference to Market Movers by him, I'll need a bucket.

Market Movers are the poorest bet in history, you'd be better backing favourites straight out.

All value has gone, they are ALWAYS unders. Hear, hear.
Apart from that Chrome Prince I'd just like to thank you for providiing me summary info on that forbidden thread the other day, and being a new boy didn't know how else to contact - thanks again
cheers............Mancunian

[stebbo]

Hi All,

saying that the Late Mail is a random, uninformed pick is just plain ludicrous. All of my extensive analysis has shown that Late Mail selections win more often than similar horses that are not LM selections. Whenever I develop a strategy I always do a LM Yes/No analysis, and these invariable show that the Late Mail selections win a higher percentage of races than the non LM selections.

For example, using one set of commercial ratings. This calendar year. 12,830 races, average strike rate is 18%. Those selections that are also selected Late Mail selections win 31% of their 1,875 races, and the "no's" win 15% of their races.

Now... I agree fully with the sentiments that the LM selections are poor value. Average dividend for a LM selection was $2.75 vs $5.75 for the non LM selection.

Cheers,
Chris.

[stebbo]

another very interesting stat... Backing every single LM selection...

Again, this calendar year. 9,594 LM selections, S/R is a very healthy 24.9%. This beats the raw strike rate for many commercially available ratings systems by quite a few percent...

Now for the sad news... POT is a very nasty -18.6%... this is nowhere near most of the commercially available ratings systems.

What this shows is that the LM selections are worthy of consideration, but as soon as they're listed as LM selections, you know that there will be no value in betting them.

Cheers,
Chris.