Do you agree Group 1 Assessment?

[Chrome Prince]

Hi all,

Just trialling a little research.

Excluding today's races, do you think my class ranking of Group 1 races this year is correct?

I'd be interested in what you disagree on but in particular why?

Thanks.

Top to bottom - highest class to lowest.

<pre>
12/03/2005 Flemington Australian Cup
22/10/2005 Moonee Valley Carlton Draught Cox Plate
12/02/2005 Caulfield C.F. Orr Stakes
5/03/2005 Rosehill Ranvet Stakes
19/03/2005 Rosehill The Bmw
2/04/2005 Randwick Bigpond Queen Elizabeth Stakes
19/02/2005 Warwick Farm Chipping Norton Stakes
26/03/2005 Randwick Blackmores Tj Smith Stakes
29/10/2005 Flemington Motorola Mackinnon Stakes
19/02/2005 Moonee Valley Timbercorp Australia Stakes
15/10/2005 Caulfield Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup
8/10/2005 Caulfield Yalumba Stakes
2/04/2005 Randwick Daily Telegraph All Aged Stakes
5/03/2005 Caulfield Futurity Stakes
11/06/2005 Eagle Farm Aami Stradbroke
24/09/2005 Randwick George Main Stakes
21/05/2005 Doomben Carlton Draught Doomben 10,000
17/09/2005 Caulfield Dubai Duty Free Underwood Stakes
29/10/2005 Flemington Seppelt Salinger Stakes
5/02/2005 Flemington Teac Lightning Stakes
12/03/2005 Flemington Seppelt Wines Newmarket Handicap
8/10/2005 Caulfield Toorak Handicap
17/09/2005 Caulfield Dubai Racing Club Cup
30/03/2005 Randwick David Jones Galaxy
10/09/2005 Moonee Valley Cleanevent Manikato Stakes
28/03/2005 Randwick Doncaster Handicap
12/03/2005 Flemington Cadbury Guineas
29/10/2005 Flemington Myer Classic
19/03/2005 Rosehill Cathay Pacific George Ryder Stakes
2/04/2005 Randwick Schweppes Sydney Cup
14/05/2005 Morphettville Urban Pacific Goodwood Handicap
1/10/2005 Randwick Bigpond Racing Epsom Handicap
5/03/2005 Rosehill Coolmore Classic
8/10/2005 Caulfield Carlton Draught Caulfield Guineas
28/05/2005 Doomben Xxxx Gold Doomben Cup Weight For Ag
23/02/2005 Morphettville Robert Sangster Stakes
26/02/2005 Caulfield Oakleigh Plate
26/03/2005 Randwick Inglis Sires Produce
1/10/2005 Randwick Sydney City Lexus Flight Stakes
16/05/2005 Morphettville Skycity Adelaide Cup
13/06/2005 Eagle Farm Conrad Treasury Brisbane Cup
19/03/2005 Rosehill McMillanprint Queen Of The Turf Sta
19/03/2005 Rosehill Arrowfield Stud Stakes
30/03/2005 Randwick Emirates Ajc Australian Oaks
1/10/2005 Randwick The Metropolitan
26/03/2005 Randwick David Jones Australian Derby
2/04/2005 Randwick Salinger Champagne Stakes
19/03/2005 Rosehill Aami Golden Slipper
12/03/2005 Rosehill Dubai Rosehill Guineas
9/04/2005 Belmont Mount Franklin Lightly Sparklking-w
12/10/2005 Caulfield Vinery Stud Thousand Guineas
26/02/2005 Canterbury Kia Ora Stud Canterbury Guineas
29/10/2005 Flemington Aami Victoria Derby
4/06/2005 Eagle Farm Joe Richards Menswear Queensland Oa
26/02/2005 Caulfield Aami Blue Diamond Stakes
11/06/2005 Eagle Farm Bmw Queensland Derby
1/10/2005 Randwick Thrifty Spring Champion Stakes
7/05/2005 Morphettville Schweppes Oaks
13/06/2005 Eagle Farm The Racetree T.J. Smith Qtis 2-y-o
4/06/2005 Eagle Farm Borrelli Hand Made Clothing Sires'
14/05/2005 Morphettville Malaysia Airlines Sa Derby
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

No takers? Wow.

Thought there would be quite a few ready to rip it apart.

The class rating is based on field strength.

The Cox Plate rating well below the Australian Cup.

The Caulfield Cup rating well below some other less regarded races

[Raw Instinct]

Hard for me to say really have no idea here but I think that the QLD Derby could have been ranked a little higher even more so with Lachlan River running the race he did in the cup, The other I think will be a better race in a bit of time is the TJ Smith in Brisbane Darci Brahma is all quality and I have alot of time for the placegetters there in Ready As and Daemons maybe I am wrong.

[FremantleDoctor]

I would exclude the one and only WA listing CP. We don't want to get a big head over here you know! ;)

[FremantleDoctor]

And as a matter of interest how did we get that one on your list :)

[FremantleDoctor]

I see Desi has just clocked in :) Perhaps Desi could shed some light ;)

[FremantleDoctor]

I see Desi has just clocked in :) Perhaps Desi could shed some light ;)

Well Desi's been and gone, as well as CP. Must have b.o. Ah well there’s always tomorrow :)

[Chrome Prince]

And as a matter of interest how did we get that one on your list :)

That W.A. race rated well more because Plastered was running in it which really boosted the class of the field.

[Chuck]

Who was in the CFORR? surely that can't be rated that high.

BTW Do you think it would be possible to post the fields of the top5 or so? thanks

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Chuck,

The CF ORR

Elvstroem
Mummify
Pentastic
Mr. Murphy
Regal Roller
Natural Blitz
Casual Pass
Lad Of The Manor
Rizon
Pretorius
Makybe Diva
Vouvray
Savabeel
Not A Single Doubt
Danehill Express

A cracking field - won by Elvstroem, hence the high ranking.

[Duritz]

Mate the reason there was no takers was because you asked the question wrong. The way you asked it a person would have no idea if a race at the bottom was much, little or lots above one below. Instead of ranking them (which means nothing) give them a figure representing their strength. You can express this figure in whatever form you like.

[Chrome Prince]

How bout this then?
<pre>
DATE TRACK RACE NAME RATING
12/03/2005 Flemington Australian Cup 100
22/10/2005 Moonee Valley Carlton Draught Cox Plate 82
12/02/2005 Caulfield C.F. Orr Stakes 70
5/03/2005 Rosehill Ranvet Stakes 69
19/03/2005 Rosehill The Bmw 69
2/04/2005 Randwick Bigpond Queen Elizabeth Stakes 60
19/02/2005 Warwick Farm Chipping Norton Stakes 54
26/03/2005 Randwick Blackmores Tj Smith Stakes 54
29/10/2005 Flemington Motorola Mackinnon Stakes 51
19/02/2005 Moonee Valley Timbercorp Australia Stakes 48
15/10/2005 Caulfield Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup 46
8/10/2005 Caulfield Yalumba Stakes 45
2/04/2005 Randwick Daily Telegraph All Aged Stakes 44
5/03/2005 Caulfield Futurity Stakes 43
11/06/2005 Eagle Farm Aami Stradbroke 40
24/09/2005 Randwick George Main Stakes 35
21/05/2005 Doomben Carlton Draught Doomben 10,000 35
17/09/2005 Caulfield Dubai Duty Free Underwood Stakes 34
29/10/2005 Flemington Seppelt Salinger Stakes 33
5/02/2005 Flemington Teac Lightning Stakes 33
12/03/2005 Flemington Seppelt Wines Newmarket Handicap 33
8/10/2005 Caulfield Toorak Handicap 33
17/09/2005 Caulfield Dubai Racing Club Cup 31
30/03/2005 Randwick David Jones Galaxy 29
10/09/2005 Moonee Valley Cleanevent Manikato Stakes 27
28/03/2005 Randwick Doncaster Handicap 26
12/03/2005 Flemington Cadbury Guineas 24
29/10/2005 Flemington Myer Classic 24
19/03/2005 Rosehill Cathay Pacific George Ryder Stakes 22
2/04/2005 Randwick Schweppes Sydney Cup 22
14/05/2005 Morphettville Urban Pacific Goodwood Handicap 21
1/10/2005 Randwick Bigpond Racing Epsom Handicap 20
5/03/2005 Rosehill Coolmore Classic 17
8/10/2005 Caulfield Carlton Draught Caulfield Guineas 17
28/05/2005 Doomben Xxxx Gold Doomben Cup Weight For Ag 17
23/02/2005 Morphettville Robert Sangster Stakes 16
26/02/2005 Caulfield Oakleigh Plate 16
26/03/2005 Randwick Inglis Sires Produce 16
1/10/2005 Randwick Sydney City Lexus Flight Stakes 13
16/05/2005 Morphettville Skycity Adelaide Cup 12
13/06/2005 Eagle Farm Conrad Treasury Brisbane Cup 12
19/03/2005 Rosehill McMillanprint Queen Of The Turf Sta 12
19/03/2005 Rosehill Arrowfield Stud Stakes 12
30/03/2005 Randwick Emirates Ajc Australian Oaks 11
1/10/2005 Randwick The Metropolitan 10
26/03/2005 Randwick David Jones Australian Derby 10
2/04/2005 Randwick Salinger Champagne Stakes 9
19/03/2005 Rosehill Aami Golden Slipper 9
12/03/2005 Rosehill Dubai Rosehill Guineas 7
9/04/2005 Belmont Mount Franklin Lightly Sparklking-w 7
12/10/2005 Caulfield Vinery Stud Thousand Guineas 7
26/02/2005 Canterbury Kia Ora Stud Canterbury Guineas 7
29/10/2005 Flemington Aami Victoria Derby 5
4/06/2005 Eagle Farm Joe Richards Menswear Queensland Oa 5
26/02/2005 Caulfield Aami Blue Diamond Stakes 4
11/06/2005 Eagle Farm Bmw Queensland Derby 4
1/10/2005 Randwick Thrifty Spring Champion Stakes 4
7/05/2005 Morphettville Schweppes Oaks 4
13/06/2005 Eagle Farm The Racetree T.J. Smith Qtis 2-y-o 4
4/06/2005 Eagle Farm Borrelli Hand Made Clothing Sires' 3
14/05/2005 Morphettville Malaysia Airlines Sa Derby 3
</pre>

[Duritz]

OK first thought - what do the points represent?

[Chrome Prince]

Field strength compared to the classiest race.

This rating refers to the class of the field contesting the race.

[Duritz]

Yep OK but on what scale? How much is a point worth roughly?

[Chrome Prince]

Duritz, it's not a kg scale or anything.

Total points for classiest field is 100.

The points are then scaled down based on relative percentage to the top rated.

The way I constructed it was average career prizemoney for the field.

Not API, but add total career prizemoney of every runner and divide by number of starters giving a $ Class figure.

Doing it by api and then dividing it did not work at all, because of 2yo's etc with limited starts.

It's just an idea I was tossing around and that way one could compare the rating of one Cox Plate one year, to that 20 years ago using the same scale even though prizemoney had changed.

One could see instantly that a 100 Cox Plate this year and a 95 10 years ago, this was a better field etc. Without the increase of prizemoney interfering, as it is scaled to each year.

[Duritz]

Yeah see what you mean.

I would think that that method has merit, but more than likely it has merit when used in CONJUNCTION with other factors, most importantly of course some sort of ranking based on the quality of the winner/placegetters etc. Really, the best way is by ranking/classing them based on the INDIVIDUAL strength of each individual race, and the best way to do that is to compare horse against horse in each of them. Then a ranking method like the one you are outline can be used to strenghten/enhance the method itself.

Unfortunately, when it comes to accuracy, there's no easy answer. Full points for thinking outside the square though.

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks Duritz,

I might even do a comparison year by year later this weekend, seeing I've got some motivation now!

Where this will lead, I do not know, but I've been looking to find some way of measuring class and thought the best place to start was Group races and Listed races and concentrate on them.

Once you get down into Open, Welter etc. There is too much grey area and of course too many races to evaluate.

[DR RON]

C.P
what rating would you have given the Melbourne Cup??

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Dr Ron,

I haven't done it as yet, but I think it would have taken over top spot. The Diva being the catalyst with Vinnie Row.