Australia vs. Uruguay

[mecurial]

Less than two weeks out, TABSportsbet has Australia at $2.45 and Uruguay at $1.50. It has been reported that Uruguay's top 2 goalkeepers are both suffering injuries, a key defender is suspended for the first leg, and one of the midfielders is also carrying an injury.

I think that Australia are value at that price, however I have a strong emotional attachment to the cause of World Cup Qualification, and I worry that maybe this is affecting my judgement. I am thinking about putting a fairly large wager on the Socceroos (for my standards anyway), and was hoping that somebody with a more neutral perspective, possibly even somebody who is somewhat of a professional, could post their thoughts.

Thanks

[thefan]

TAB sportsbet has the option with draw

Uruguay $1.60
Draw $3.50
Australia $5

I have been given a tip to back Australia,because of the quality of the coach they have as well as the way they played Jamaica with the quality ball control.

[wesmip1]

Uruguay are very hard to beat at home.

Here is there last few starts at home LWWWLLWWDW
Here are their wins away from home LWDWLDWDDL

Australias home form is WWDDWWWLLW
Australias away form is LLLWLDWDLW

If you compare the Away form of Australia with the Uraguay home form it appears that Australia could find the game hard going.

BUT without a recognised Goalie this is going to give Australia are much better rating.

Uraguays rating on bet devil is 1304 Australias is 1335.

As an objective view point the bet is very good. We take a neutral rating (bet devil) and it shows Australia should be the better team. I believe taking away the top 2 goalies available to Uraguay is going to a tremedous boost to Australia.

Can Australia win ? Well personally no I don't think so, But I do think the most likely outcome now is a draw. I would take a bet on a draw hopefully 1-1 or an Australian win 1-0 or 2-1. You can't take Urugauy as a serious bet as the Goalie is unproven.

I hae no confidence is any advice I give as I don't follow soccer much .. but thought I would post the bet devil ratings for you.

Good Luck.

[Sportz]

Uraguays rating on bet devil is 1304 Australias is 1335.


Can you explain these ratings, please???

[wesmip1]

Sportz,

I just ripped the numbers from the bet devil web site ... as far as how accurate they are and how they are measured I don't know.

I just provided them for mecurial as he wanted some neutral ratings

Take a look at the web site betdevil dot com and you might find your answer.

[punta]

id be interested in what u ratings are sportz
u seem to be doing pretty well with the epl

[Sportz]

Punta,

Sorry mate, I haven't done any ratings for this as it's just too hard. Australia's been playing against inferior teams to what Uruguay has and it's just too difficult to line the two teams up.

If you want my personal opinion though, I think Uruguay will probably qualify. Purely on ability, I have no doubt that Australia SHOULD be in the World Cup finals, but we always fall short every time it comes to this point and unfortunately I think it will happen again. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

By the way, this tipping site picks Uruguay to win both legs 2-0.
http://www.soccerwinners.com/matchinternational.html
I don't know that they'll be THAT dominant.

[luv2bet]

Australia to win first leg. If they dont win I think they will score which should be enough to get them there. Ill be having a good go at the 5.50 offered...
Go AUSSIES, Show the world we need to be taken more seriously..

[Sportz]

Turned out pretty much as I expected. We played okay, but when it comes to important matches against top teams, we just don't seem to be able to get the ball in the net. And that is after all the most important part of the game.

I couldn't believe the commentators were happy with 0-1. Sure, it's certainly better than 0-2, but if Uruguay score in Sydney, we have to get 3!!!

[luv2bet]

I thought we played well. A little bit of luck in the first half and it would of been a different story. The free kick that they scored from was DEFINATELY not a free kick, if anything it should of been a free to the aussies. Im still spewin it was paid, very costly mistake there. Viduka's off side called on him was very doubtful, there didnt appear to be any camera that could line it up, and overall i thought a draw would've been a fair result in the context of the game. Nerve racking wait until wednesday now, its almost enough to throuw the boots back on....

[andrew057]

I thought we played well. A little bit of luck in the first half and it would of been a different story. The free kick that they scored from was DEFINATELY not a free kick, if anything it should of been a free to the aussies. Im still spewin it was paid, very costly mistake there. Viduka's off side called on him was very doubtful, there didnt appear to be any camera that could line it up, and overall i thought a draw would've been a fair result in the context of the game. Nerve racking wait until wednesday now, its almost enough to throuw the boots back on....
You can make all the excuses you like. We were LUCKY to only lose 1-0. Uruguay should have had 3 spot kicks, yep 3.

[Shaun]

The only thing i have to say is i hope we never host the world cup because the way the fans carry on, well they can keep thier animals over there....some one should remind them it is a game not life or death

[thefan]

why is Australia coming into the next leg favs

[punta]

i disagree with you shaun, i think fanatical fans is what australian soccer needs.
you have a look at all major leagues around the world, they all have there fanatical fans, it adds to the atomosphere and it pumps the players up even more.
60,000 in montevideo compared to 60,000 in telstra is a MASSIVE difference

[Sportz]

There were just a few hundred brave Australian fans at Sunday's game. Whereas, there'll be THOUSANDS of Uruguay fans in Sydney on Wednesday.

[Sportz]

why is Australia coming into the next leg favs

They're favourites to win the match, not to win qualification. The odds on Australia qualifying has gone out slightly from $2.40 to $2.55, so obviously the bookies think our chances are pretty much the same as they were before Sunday.

[syllabus23]

Being a fanatical fan doesn't make a person an animal.....

Being a redneck might.......

[Shaun]

You don't see to many riots at AFL games but it is pretty comon at soccer matches.....and throwing bottles and spitting on the Aussie fans and players....if that doesn't make them animals what does

[thefan]

ok uraguay half full dble is $6.00 and the Aus win is now around $1.95-$2.00 with bookies. I might take the $6 on offer with a few multis...

[Sportz]

YOU BEAUTY!!!!! :D :D :D

[thefan]

That had to be the best soccer match ive seen in along long time..

[punta]

are you kidding!!!!!
the game was so sloppy and scrappy
but who cares WERE IN!!!!!

[wesmip1]

Well even if it was a bit scrappy at times it was good to beat Uraguay espeically considering all the suspect tactics they were using through the series.

Go Aussies...