Blackbookers

[Chrome Prince]

I'm starting a blackbookers thread of my picks from terrific runs at their last race (not necessarily winners), just to see how they fare and if I am right.

They get one race to prove it and get sacked unless they re qualify, as a good run may not mean anything two or three starts later.

Flaring Sun at Geelong.

Sunline's little brother, was very green and got checked badly twice in the run home. Was working home well before he got chopped out after failing to go the early pace.

Bentley Biscuit at Randwick

No surprises here, but I think he might be spelled anyway. Very impressed with the way he dominated and won easily. No value - but if he starts in a much higher class could get away with black and white figures maybe.

Becks at Flemington

Beadman rode this a treat and the horse simply outclassed the opposition. He's now won 3 from 5 starts and looks to have good potential. He won his first start by 2 1/4 lengths which usually indicates and up and comer. I especially liked the way Beadman had a bit in hand at the end and no other horse got near him over the final 200m.


Up'n'doing at Randwick.

They went hard early which really set it up for the filly, but it was a very commanding win, very strong indeed. Especially noting that she was looking around for much of the early trip, but when she stretched out she was very very impressive. Reminded me a lot of Jetball in the run, her Sire.

Barlagarney at Flemington.

This Danehill colt really warmed up well at the end stretching out to fly home.
Rogerson had trialled him twice in Sydney and brought him to Melbourne for his first start at a $200,000 race. Smacks of a very high opinion of the horse.
Considering he smashed into another horse at the jump and went sideways and came from last position to finish a solid 2ND, a big win is around the corner.

Voltdanze at Randwick

Finished the race off nicely without being a winning chance. This one might be looking for more distance, perhaps 1800 to 2000m. Perhaps even 2040m in October ;) Rogerson has been stepping her up in distance each run, so he must be of the same opinion. She ran a very nice race on her first attempt at a city race after being handy at the country meets.
She may not win next start but will definitely figure in the finish, if she goes over more distance, she's a strong winning chance at odds.

Our Smoking Joe

Very consistent horse who dominated the race over the final stages. He's only won 9 from 34 starts now but seems to be getting better with age. His second to Lad of The Manor proves he is a bit special. Probably not a Group 1 horse but certainly G2 to Listed. Would be looking for another strong performance in similar class next start.


Smart Maxie at Randwick

Very smart horse who had trouble getting a run in a bumping duel at the rear of the field and came home with a wet sail to be placed. Another consistent horse who runs a good race each start, always a chance and looks to be ready for yet another win.

Suitology at Flemington

Massive run to win on the line. This is a distance horse who is also quite consistent. He needs distance to be at his best and any race 2000M+ he'll be very competitive in next start.

Storm Alert at Flemington

Got pipped on the post by Suitology in the same race, but looked to have it won easily at the 100m mark. Pay to follow this horse, he's only won 2 from 11 but has now been placed 8 from 12. Freedman has a strong horse here who is knocking on the door for a win.

Cargo Cult at Flemington

Very strong win down the outside beating Shadowmaker which ran third.
This horse is all class and went to the line as stongly as Suitology. Very strong win after his second at Moonee Valley in the Waterford Mile. This could be one of Alderson's best.

Malcolm at Randwick

Pace was genuine whch set the race up for him, but he absolutely pounced on the field after having to pull wide behind a wall of horses. I did not like that he almost didn't want to go past them when he got level, I'd have to see the head on, but maybe he just hung in as the rider stopped whipping and straightened him up, then he put a length on them.
He's a very smart horse, but would not be accepting red figures about him next start. If the pace was slower and he hung in, he'd be in trouble.
A good bet at reasonable odds.

[rabbitz]

malcolm is very smart,you'll see !

[Raw Instinct]

Chrome I agree on Barlagarney and Sutology both were great runs yesterday another I liked was in the NZ 1000 Guineas might be one to follow if it comes over for the brisbane winter carnival the horse is Everswindell really motored to the line in a leader dominated race.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Rabbitz,

I agree he's a very good horse.

I certainly wouldn't be taking odds on though until he sorts himself out.

Evens or better is fine, I just see a slight vulnerability there at odds on is all.

[Raw Instinct]

To be honest Chrome I didn't like the way he hit the line he sat out the back did nothing then excelerated straight past them however his run seemed to end awful quick might get better in time but I would have really liked to have seen him run away with it a bit better.

As for Barlagarney geez he was impressive this far out he could be an early slipper chance I know it is miles away but what a turn of foot.

[bl4dez]

impinge same race as flaring sun

kenshou
adel race 5

already blackbooked

syd
zinzin
up'n'doing
malcolm
october son

melb
follow the till
glamour puss
niconero
johan's toy

[Chrome Prince]

I'm going to add some more blackbookers so I have no more than 20 in the stable at any time. So each class raceday I have at least a couple of bookers running.

Rightson

Sensational run by a sensational horse.

Bel Danoro

Decisive win in impressive style.

John Syn

Strong win by this white/grey horse who swamped Kill The Cat in the concluding stages.

Hillfa

Only won by about half a length, but it was the strongest run of the race.
Very unlucky horse before this win, who found bad trouble at previous two starts.

On A Jeune

Run of the Cup. Will run very close next year.

Sky Right

Took some time to wind up, but really went to the line well.

Air Cooled

This grey horse made significant ground late and just failed to pick up the winner. Took a while to knuckle down, but was carrying 59.50kg and will be looking for more ground. 1400m plus.

Tolo

Came very wide to run 4th but was running on at the end. Finished about a length from the winner Another one looking for more ground. This might be a long distance horse rather than a medium 1600m horse.

Chiack

Finished hard to run third in a very strongly contested final 200m. Came from the rear part of the field at just the right time and punched out by Nash ran very well.

Phantom Agent

Did the chasing in the final 400m and finished it off strongly to win well under hands and heels riding careering away with the prize.

Let's see how this lot go over the coming weeks.

O.K. There's 22 in the stable, but I don't think On A Jeune or Bentley Biscuit will get another start this month :(

[Chrome Prince]

Horses Nominated this week:

Sat 12/11

Air Cooled - Sandown
Hillfa - Sandown
John Syn - Rosehill
Our Smoking Joe - Sandown
Phantom Agent - Rosehill

Sun 13/11

Chiack - Ararat (will probably go around odds on here).

Will be interesting to see how they run :D

[BJ]

I know you are probably not requesting other peoples thoughts here, and you seem to be concentrating on Metros, but... There was a big run from Dovecote Lad today at Queanbeyan. Race 5 no 8.
Ran home strong, 3rd run in. Started the roughy in the field at about 30 to 1 and flew home down the outside. Was a bit over the place in the straight, but a nice balanced run would have seen it home by a few lengths.

Might be a good one at odds next start.

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks BJ, I can't get access to Queanbeyan video, but we might add it as a supplementary.

Thanks.

[leroy]

HI GUYS.

FLEM R3-AZTEC SMYTZER.
I BACKED IT SATURDAY AND WILL BE LOOKING FOR IT NEXT TIME TOO.
GOOD WIN

JUST THOUGHT I WOULD PUT MY 2CENTS IN
CHEERS
LEROY

[Real Deal]

Forget about your early slipper and diamond chances. There is only one horse imo that can win them. I Got Chills. i'm not sure if it will win them by 5 or 6 lengths yet, will have to wait and see how he returns after injury.

[Chrome Prince]

HI GUYS.

FLEM R3-AZTEC SMYTZER.
I BACKED IT SATURDAY AND WILL BE LOOKING FOR IT NEXT TIME TOO.
GOOD WIN

JUST THOUGHT I WOULD PUT MY 2CENTS IN
CHEERS
LEROY

Hi Leroy,

Yes a good win by the horse for sure, another of Tony's "Smytzer" horses.

I didn't black book it because I thought the win was not powerful enough, or dominant enough to make it not vulnerable next start.

It's good enough to win next start, I'm just booking the best of the best runs or the horses finishing strongly to the line without winning.

The same applies to Nadeem.

The booker of the race was Barlagarney.

[Chrome Prince]

Horses Nominated this week:

Sat 12/11

Air Cooled - Sandown
Hillfa - Sandown
John Syn - Rosehill
Our Smoking Joe - Sandown
Phantom Agent - Rosehill

Sun 13/11

Chiack - Ararat (will probably go around odds on here).

Will be interesting to see how they run :D

Tolo is entered on Sun 13/11 at Newcastle over 1850m which should suit nicely.

Interesting to note that the horse is by Snippets but is looking for a longer trip.

I'l be keeping running balance stats for the horses on this thread based on 1 unit eachway.

[andrew057]

Great idea CP, this should be interesting.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Andrew,

I used to do this very successfully in the early 1980's.

The main problem is that the bulk of them will be very short odds in the market. The value comes from the occasional one that steps up in class and wins. So I expect the strike rate to be reasonable, but probably a while before a good profit is shown.

There were two very good runs today at Randwick.

Contrast in the last race was an enormous run coming from the tail of the field to pip the horse that looked to have it won.

Le Rossignol was heavily backed and really blitzed the field as he liked.
Hawkes has been steadily stepping this gelding up in distance and the owners are the famous Lam family. I'm sure Hawkes is setting this horse up for a huge jump in class soon, so he could actually be some value.

There are some very promising young horses running around at the moment, perhaps future champions if they remain sound.

I should also add that any horse which runs a disappointing race, other than bad luck, will be sacked from the list and replaced.

I will also be sacking any horse which does not race within 14 days of being added as a watch horse.

My past experience tells me that very good runs can quickly fade away in three weeks and the money still goes on, but invariably they disappoint.

Horses that don't run in 14 days, usually have suffered some minor setback, and I'd rather wait and see than put money on them.

Any horse can requalify at any time in the future.

All this work better pay off ;)

[Chrome Prince]

Final Acceptances and bets for the weekend.

Air Cooled SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 12/11/05 R5

Chiack ARARAT 13/11/05 R6

Hillfa SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 12/11/05 R7

John Syn ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R7

Phantom Agent ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R8

Sky Right ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R8

Our Smoking Joe is not running due to giving up ;)

Tolo not running due to flying to Greece ;)

Phantom Agent and Sky Right going around in the same race.
I favour Phantom Agent over Sky Right, but depending on odds, I'll probably back them both and have a small quinella bet.

[andrew057]

Final Acceptances and bets for the weekend.

Air Cooled SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 12/11/05 R5

Chiack ARARAT 13/11/05 R6

Hillfa SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 12/11/05 R7

John Syn ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R7

Phantom Agent ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R8

Sky Right ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R8

Our Smoking Joe is not running due to giving up ;)

Tolo not running due to flying to Greece ;)

Phantom Agent and Sky Right going around in the same race.
I favour Phantom Agent over Sky Right, but depending on odds, I'll probably back them both and have a small quinella bet.
Nice work CP, Sky Rights last run impressed me quite a bit...stormed home. Havent seen PA run so dont know what to think about it. Let me know how these runners go

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Andrew,

I liked the run of PA, because not only did he storm home to win, he actually put a space behind him and the second horse, so it wasn't a close finish.

So I have a better leaning towards him, having said that, Sky Right will probably be a better value bet.

Leroy,

Aztec Smytzer is going around at Sandown Saturday.

Best of luck, he should win.

[bl4dez]

2day race
syd race 3

rum cruise
safwa

[Chrome Prince]

There's some value for these runners tomorrow based on prepost price, so a couple of wins would suit nicely.

Air Cooled SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 12/11/05 R5 $13.00

Hillfa SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 12/11/05 R7 $13.00

John Syn ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R7 $5.00

Phantom Agent ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R8 $17.00

Sky Right ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R8 $9.00

Some great value amongst that lot.

The standout run of tonight was California Dane who will be added to the blackbook to replace a non-performer after the weekend's racing.
The jockey was puffing from pulling up the horse, which ran it's last 600m in 34.80 after dictating all the way. Easy win, horse is a real star.

[TESTAROSSA]

Hi CP,

I think you will find that both Phantom Agent and Sky Right will be value, i have it as a VERY open race with, Catchadane, Ashkabar, Phantom Agent, Leading Bid, Te Deum, Top Of The Top, Command Decision, Sky Right and Sob Story all having top chances, i will probably have a little something on Top Of The Top if anything, but good luck with your selections.

[Chrome Prince]

Air Cooled SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 12/11/05 R5 3rd $2.30

Stays in the blackbook as it was a good run

Hillfa SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 12/11/05 R7

SACKED - although it copped the backwash of the race fall, I still didn't like the run, it was winding up late, but not strongly enough for mine before the fall. I've watched the replay in slow motion, and I won't be on it again. That's not to say it can't win in the next couple of runs, probably will, but I don't want to follow this horse anymore, there were better runs from others today.


John Syn ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R7

SACKED - Had every chance to pick up the leaders and did make up some ground late, but was only plugging, reckon he's had enough. John to the Syn bin

Phantom Agent ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R8

SACKED - did nothing worth following this horse in future

Sky Right ROSEHILL 12/11/05 R8 3RD $3.30

Stays in the blackbook, good run too late

Chiack ARARAT 13/11/05 R6 runs Sunday.

Stable is now:

Air Cooled
Sky Right
California Dane
Chiack
Contrast
Le Rossignol
Flaring Sun
Becks
Up'n'doing
Barlagarney
Voltdanze
Our Smoking Joe
Smart Maxie
Sutology
Storm Alert
Cargo Cult
Malcolm
Rightson
Bel Danoro
Tolo

[Raw Instinct]

Was wondering what you thought of the run by Delago Broms little sister today Brom Felinity I thought it was a terrific effort in only her 3rd race start unfortunately she didn't quite get there for the win for me today but for sure is worth following.

[Chrome Prince]

Chiack ARARAT 13/11/05 R6 2ND $1.20
Stays in the blackbook - A nice run considering first try at the distance, thought the jockey may have peeled out a bit early, if you watch the replay, the jockey on Silver Birch waited some 200m extra to start his run, but there was a distance query with Chiack, these may have been the instructions. Interesting at first try at distance, he went around favourite.

TOTAL
6 Bets
0 Wins
3 Placings

Win -$6.00
Place $0.80

[Chrome Prince]

Was wondering what you thought of the run by Delago Broms little sister today Brom Felinity I thought it was a terrific effort in only her 3rd race start unfortunately she didn't quite get there for the win for me today but for sure is worth following.

What race and venue did she run?

I'll watch the video and get back to you.

[Raw Instinct]

Last race at Sandown yesterday finished 3rd.

[Chrome Prince]

Raw Instinct,

That was a very big run!

She wasn't even in the picture with 200m to go, but then I saw her flash down the outside as a swooper. Considering she came from second last and had to pull wide to make her run.

Yep, I'd be on her next start with two provisos, distance suits and a nice long straight.

She's the type who'll get up at big odds at Flemington or similar.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi everyone,

there are a few blackbookers running tomorrow.

Air Cooled SANDOWN-LAKESIDE 19/11/05 R5 Rawdon Handicap
Massive drop in grade and a small step up in distance should see him win, but he'll be short odds

Flaring Sun SEYMOUR 19/11/05 R2 Primo White Hungarian Salami S
stepping up from 1240m to 1400m, looking not to get boxed in and to be making ground late in the straight

Storm Alert SANDOWN-LAKESIDE 19/11/05 R6 Eclipse Stakes (G3)
the 2100m will suit nicely, and a bit of a drop in class, but there are some classy in form horses in this race, so we should get value about this mare

Up'n'doing RANDWICK 19/11/05 R1 Gt Rowe Handicap
Has won over this distance and won last two starts in fine style, won't be any fancy odds here

RUNNING TALLY
----------------------------
TOTAL
6 Bets
0 Wins
3 Placings

Win -$6.00
Place $0.80
----------------------------

[BJ]

The best run of yesterday imo, was Danish Prince. The greenest horse you would ever see but was way too good for them. If it switched on, it would have won by 7-8 lengths.
Paid $33 on Vic tote, might be value again next run.

[Chrome Prince]

Flaring Sun SEYMOUR 19/11/05 R2 Primo White Hungarian Salami S
stepping up from 1240m to 1400m, looking not to get boxed in and to be making ground late in the straight


Interesting race indeed, horse ridden completely opposite to last time. Went far to hard early for a horse that runs on. Was also three and four wide early.
Horse is still very green, and got bumped a few times by the horse that ran 3rd.

I won't be sacking him on the 4th today, fought on well in the straight, I reckon if ridden correctly and a bit fitter, he'll be right in the finish.

Jockey must have had instructions to keep off the rail after getting trapped last time.

I reckon this run was to get the horse fit, and next time he'll be ridden differently, I also think you'll get much better odds next start.

He'll have to show something next start, or he'll be sacked.

[Chrome Prince]

Up'n'doing RANDWICK 19/11/05 R1 Gt Rowe Handicap
Has won over this distance and won last two starts in fine style, won't be any fancy odds here



Up'n'doing ran second after looking a beaten horse 400m out, when he got going, gee he was impressive. Not as impressive as the winner, but this horse is crying out for a much longer distance. Really didn't lengthen stride until 100m out, and flew home. Why they put this horse over 1100m again, leaves me puzzled, he's looking for 1300 to 1400m in my opinion, and could be a 1600m horse later.

Stays in the blacbook for sure, but won't be backing him if they don't put him up in distance to at least 1300m, 1200m won't cut it for mine.

[Sportz]

Had a tip for Aquabelle from the trials, but I decided not to bet in the race because it was a 2yo race with only 5 runners, 4 of them unraced and 3 good winning chances.

[Chrome Prince]

Sportz,

Bad luck on that, Aquabelle is certainly something special. The jockey gave him a few cuts with the whip as they straightened and then put the whip away and he cruised to win untouched over the last 200m.

Aquabelle will be another blackbooker for sure.

[Chrome Prince]

Air Cooled SANDOWN-LAKESIDE 19/11/05 R5 Rawdon Handicap
Massive drop in grade and a small step up in distance should see him win, but he'll be short odds

Storm Alert SANDOWN-LAKESIDE 19/11/05 R6 Eclipse Stakes (G3)
the 2100m will suit nicely, and a bit of a drop in class, but there are some classy in form horses in this race, so we should get value about this mare



Air Cooled was another good run to run 4th and all things being equal should really have won. He stays in the blackbook because he was stuck behind runners and chopped and changed two or three times trying to wind up. This was a very unlucky run today.

Storm Alert is sacked!
Had the run of the race behind the leader, who was one off the fence anyway, so had every chance.

Bye Bye Storm Alert.

[Chrome Prince]

Air Cooled unplaced 4th

Flaring Sun unplaced 4th

Storm Alert unplaced

Up'n'doing 2ND $1.30

RUNNING TALLY
----------------------------
TOTAL
10 Bets
0 Wins
4 Placings

Win -$10.00
Place -$1.90
----------------------------

Waiting for the illusive winner at good odds :(

[Chrome Prince]

We have a few stable horses nominated this week:

Becks NOM ROSEHILL 26/11/05 R5 Newport Plate

California Dane NOM MOONEE VALLEY 26/11/05 R3 Super Vobis Three-years-old Co

Smart Maxie NOM ROSEHILL 26/11/05 R5 Newport Plate

Tolo NOM ROSEHILL 26/11/05 R9 Collaroy Handicap

[Chrome Prince]

We have accepted runners tomorrow:

Becks ROSEHILL 26/11/05 R5

California Dane MOONEE VALLEY 26/11/05 R4

Smart Maxie ROSEHILL 26/11/05 R5

Malcolm ROSEHILL 26/11/05 R7

[TESTAROSSA]

Good luck with those CP, i also have those 4 in my blackbook, interesting to see how they all handle the conditions except for Malcolm of course being a scratching.

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks Testarossa,

Yes, I wondered why Malcolm was missed by the blackbook site I use - coz he was scratched, I wonder if there is anything wrong with him.

The problem, as I see it, is that many of these slashing runs are well supported next start, so start very short. Just need a smokey at odds to make a profit really.

[Chrome Prince]

Results:

Becks ROSEHILL 26/11/05 R5 Unpl.

California Dane MOONEE VALLEY 26/11/05 R4 Won $1.20 $1.20

Smart Maxie ROSEHILL 26/11/05 R5 2ND $2.20

Malcolm ROSEHILL 26/11/05 R7 SCRATCHED

RUNNING TALLY
----------------------------
TOTAL
13 Bets
1 Wins
2 Placings

Win -$11.80
Place -$1.50
----------------------------

Well we had our first winner which paid a whopping $1.20, get in the queue and don't spend it all at once :(

[Chrome Prince]

Becks is sacked but the rest stay in the blackbook.

[Chrome Prince]

Yesterday Tolo and Contrast raced in Sydney.

Contrast was another good run just missing out on the place and stays in the blackbook.

Tolo ran a very good race in a roughhouse affair and also stays in the blackbook.

RUNNING TALLY
----------------------------
TOTAL
15 Bets
1 Wins
2 Placings

Win -$12.80
Place -$3.50
----------------------------

This is going to be a long process, as I'm not adding any more horses until I see some kind of return on investment.

[Chrome Prince]

Yesterday Tolo and Contrast raced in Sydney.

Contrast was another good run just missing out on the place and stays in the blackbook.

Tolo ran a very good race in a roughhouse affair and also stays in the blackbook.

RUNNING TALLY
----------------------------
TOTAL
15 Bets
1 Wins
2 Placings

Win -$12.80
Place -$3.50
----------------------------

This is going to be a long process, as I'm not adding any more horses until I see some kind of return on investment.

I haven't revisited this thread for a while, as it seemed to be that the punters are savvy enough to make the good performers well backed.

Here is an update though....

10/12/2005 Malcolm Won $1.50 $1.10
17/12/2005 Contrast 2nd $1.20
17/12/2005 Malcolm 2nd $1.50
17/12/2005 Smart Maxie 2nd $1.40
21/12/205 Flaring Sun 11th SACKED

TOTAL
21 Bets
2 Wins
6 Placings

Win -$16.30
Place -$3.30

Note that most of the stable are now out spelling, so are no longer in the stable til they requalify.

Which brings me to a new angle for the blackbook....

Horses that run well are observed and bet on by the market, so there seems to be little profit in it, although I did do very well years ago with this angle.

So now I have another angle which I'll post here shortly.

[Chrome Prince]

See thread under Betting Systems forum "Trainer's Picks"