Eagle Farm Saturday...

[Svenvlad]

G'day all,

Good day at Eagle Farm tomorrow. Some even fields should see strong betting and racing.

Race 1 - Start with the 2yos. Mr Bachelor was ultra-impressive last time, but theres no way i'd be taking even money about any 2yo. I'll just gamble on some of the first starters. Shutter has a good trainer/jockey and a reasonable barrier. Sir Teles trialled well recently, and is a half to Sir Monashee - who won his first 2 starts as a 2yo. Mr Bachelor obviously a chance, Eagle Farm is a different story to Doomben though.

Race 2 - Like the way Lasting Luck is going at the moment. Not beaten far by Hayil's Magic last time, but Hayils has the bad alley tomorrow. The extra 200m should suit, and the Eagle Farm straight will help too. Klondike Kid was the subject of some support last time he raced when he didn't have the greatest luck. With better fortunes tomorrow, he can figure in the finish with the top jock on board. Sleek Repeat won well in Toowoomba last time, this is a step up, but she might be a good place chance.

Race 3 - I've always liked Mahiman over a bit of ground and he gets it here. From the good gate, and [hopefully] with good speed on, i think he can go very close. Mameluke was a good win at Doomben a few weeks back, and he gave all impressions there that the 1800m would hold no fears - the Eagle Farm track won't harm him either. Picaplace had pretty ordinary luck at the top of the straight last time, and has got tactical speed so could take up a prominent position and prove tough to run down.

Race 4 - Cold Start is in a rare vein of form and i will not jump off now. He's stepping into the unknown tomorrow, with the 2400m but, again, i can't see much speed that will take him on. If he holds some of the form hes been in lately, it will take a good one to beat him i feel. Lester Thunderwing is an unknown though - his best form would see him win this by panels. However, the 3 duck eggs suggest he's not in great form. In the easier grade though, i'll give him a good show. Appleby has been in good form, and with some speed on (annoying Cold Start) he is a great chance to get over them all at the death.

Race 5 - Good race here. Fair bit of speed, but i've settled on a roughie with some speed. Appertain was in good form through last campaign, winning a town race and placing in a number of others. He has got great speed and will have derived plenty of benefit, fitness wise, from his 2 runs this time in. Sharp Aunty is a chance, but she'll be a long way back again - Eagle Farm is great for her...i'd like to see her win one before i back her, though. That's Better is a nice horse, and can do well here if ridden off the speed like he was first-up.

Race 6 - Good old Champion Star did the job for us last time, so i think i'll back up here. He finished off like the good horse he is at Doomben last week and this field is no stronger i feel. Hissy Fit is a nice sort of a horse by Octagonal, who from the 1 with J Byrne onboard can go very close. Templin was seen getting to the line very strongly for 3rd last time (i know, cause i was on 4th, for the place :() and can go better here with the better alley. Speed shouldn't be a worry here either, with Planagram in. You've just gotta gamble on which Planagram will show up - the one that goes hard and sticks on, or the one thats gone at the 200m.

Race 7 - Quality race this one, some really good sprinters going around. Picardi Run is a really good horse who should have no trouble mixing it with these. Has run some hot times in sprint races in the past and will certainly benefit from the likely pace in this race. Carolina's Boy was a great run last time, just hope he's not too jaded after it. If not, a great chance to take it out. Nessuno carried the grandstand last time and still won in Rocky, and while this is tougher, he has a great chance. There are 11 other great chances in the race though.

Race 8 - Last race. Tough way to finish the day. Thought Paradise Dancer was a good rough chance here. Not too heavily raced, and has shown some ability at the provincial tracks. With the good alley, she'll do me fine. Orrong needs to win one before i jump on, but he'll be running on again tomorrow. Riva Rebel might be a place chance in the easy race here too, has raced in better races before (when he was a lot younger, mind you).

Best tomorrow, on what is a really hard day, is Lasting Luck and Champion Star with good rough chances to Appertain and Paradise Dancer.

Good luck everyone,

Sven

[maverick1993]

Race 1.
Doesnt look much of betting race...Mr Bachelor looks to have the wood on this lot,, won well last start..lucky to be odds on..might see how Vita Nova looks in the yard..but otherwise a no go race..

Race 2.
Not an easy race this one...I like Prend again here..the good jock on board and should of beat Hayils Magic a couple of starts ago..
I was torned between Prend and Socialist who i think is well in this..has the better form lines but does miss the kick..guessing thats why they've engaged Ms Banks as she rides him track work and knows him best....can't beat expereince though ..i'll be leaning Prends way ..but if theres anything like the 11's in paper today for Socialist i'll back both..

Race 3.
3 chances IMO in this race..Mameluke, Ra Ra Rulenza and Zauberei ..
Hard doing the speed map here...I'm thinking Zauberie will lead or atleast be in the first 3...If Byrne can control he wins this..Zauberie has had Ra Ra Rulenza covered before and he rises 4 kgs ....the distance is a query but Zauberei has run out very strong 1600m races before so this should be ok..
Mameluke will get way back..was a fantastic ride last week,and will need the same luck again.but Pannell is in hot form so hes the man for the job...
I'll be leaning towards Zauberei though because he should get the better run...

Race 4.
Its hard to see them letting Cold Start having it his own way up front again..they must of learned by now..I'm not sure how to rate Lester Thunderwing..this horse beat Enzed a few starts ago but hasnt done much since..but in way better races than this lot have been in.. if you go back through his form he's beaten better horses than this lot.(but the new trainer ??might be still working the horse out)
.and Appelby has been rolling along very well...not in it last start but worked to the line well.
Classic Carla did very well last start aswell..only beaten by a horse thats flying at the moment..and has shown in the past that he can be competitive this distance range...
Bryne seems to sway my decisions alot..his rating is just so high ..so Classic Carla gets the nod ..the barrier is perfect and he should get the run of the race..
Lester, Cold Start, Appleby and Rue the saint for the multis..

Race 5.
I loved the way Sharp Aunty hit the line last start..in a way harder race..
looks good here..this is her easiest race for awhile and should be to good for these..
thought Video hits and Minassi would run well and a roughie for the exotics is Denises Diamond who should lead..

Race 6.
Prosecutions run was good last start ..had to stop start but was in it a long way and will only get better over the mile..
Scenic wells looks well placed from the good barrier ..shouldnt be so far back as usual and did look good last start ,,..and Terace is the class runner ..just not sure about him straight up to the mile 2nd up but he does this all the time and he's not that badly treated at the weights..
Prosecution the one for me..just ahead of Terrace..
and yes i'm probably under estimating Hissy Fit again..
Dont tell Clang just didnt look right last start..but they're racing her again so all must be ok...will watch her this time though...

Race 7.
This is a tough race...Helter Skelter from the inside will fly but did it tough last Sunday ...wonder how much that took out of him..
I can see Mastermind pressuring him and we saw last prep that Mastermind is the real deal..can fight it out and is unbeaten 1st up...
wonder how much petrol will be in the tank from the wide barrier in the last 50m..
the backmarkers Nessuno, Picardi run ,Algorithm , Lion Safari will be all making there charge...
i thought Carolinas Boy with the best run just behind the leaders and a huge weight drop could get there ahead of the pack flying at the end..
Mastermind is the one i'm most worried about ..then the backmarkers..
might get e/w odds about Carolinas Boy ..maybe ??

Race 8.
Throw a dart in this one..if i have to pick something i'd look at Perette who keeps hitting the line well ..in harder races than this so if shes going to win this is her race....but not a race i'm to intersted in..

Good Luck All...
Not an easy card tomorrow..will be intersting to hear Svens view and others as i'm sure there will be differing selections in alot of these races..took me an age to do speed maps here as theres alot of variables but i feel confident ..

Keen on Sharp Aunty as my best ..but i think Mr Bryne will have a good day..


as i type this Lord Lucan wins in Melb ...i think Mr ed and Sportz will be hating me bout now .....sorry guys nice trifecta ...

[maverick1993]

lol..i knew we'd have differnt views Sven but we arent even close,,
reckon between us both we've picked the card :)

[crash]

I like Double Portion's chances at better odds than Champion Star and Rue the Saint might surprise at even better odds. Thunderwing has lost his thunder and now he's bottom feeding looking for a win.

I was on Cold Start last outing but I think he has had his day in the sun this time in and should be outclassed here. Hawkesy's Terrece should have this lot sorted but watch for his light weight other runner, Hissy Fit at the weight, might do them all in. Bit of class about that one in this grade.

Good punting.

[Svenvlad]

Hah Mav,

Yea we don't normally differ all that much, but tomorrow its huge :).
Won't need to many collects to have a win tomorrow, thats for sure...

Sven

Ps. Don't know how you can feel confident with these big fields?! :p

[Raw Instinct]

Race 1: Pass

Race 2: Had a win on Hayil's Magic last start but I think I will take it on today, Prend was a great run a couple of starts back behind Hayil's Magic and although it doesn't get in well at the weights due to the claim by Palmer I think it can easily win this race will wait and see what sort of odds we get here.

Race 3: Pass

Race 4: I like Appleby here if he can stay in touch this is very winnable should be plenty of speed just hoping something actually goes and makes Cold Start work a bit, Rue the Saint might be the other worth looking at with Classic Karla for your multiples.

Race 5: Sharp Aunty is classes ahead of these all she needs to do is avoid bad luck and she wins this I doubt however she will be any great odds will wait and see what sort of odds I get here before making a decision on her won't be backing anything to beat her anyway.

Race 6: It was hard not to be impressed by the way that Champion Star won last week drwan well today with Stathi on top interesting however that Byrne got off him for Hissy Fit could be a positive lead there not one I am following but you never know. Terrace is an obvious danger just not sure if he can give 3.5kgs to a good horse like Champion Star and beat him.

Race 7: Picardi Run is extremely hard to beat here beaten some good horses in the past and goes very well fresh, dangers there are heaps of them Nessuno, Encierro, Carolina's Boy, Proudly Agro, Helter Skelter, Mastermind, Algorithm and Lion Safari could all win and who knows the winner maynot be even amoungst those names. Tough race best anywhere all day IMO I am leaning towards maybe Encierro e/w but it is tough I will be looking for value.

Race 8: Orrong is ready to win that was a huge run last start drawn well with a very good jockey on top in Cahill if it is decent odds this could be a good finish to the day.

[Raw Instinct]

Race 2 in brisbane after seeing them parade thought that Crackle Dash looked a nice horse with as good draw and good jockey might be worth an e/w dip.

thankfully I backed both Prend and Crackle Dash good start to the day.

[Sportz]

Good old Prend.

[Raw Instinct]

Yea was good to get a result early Sportz thankfully I haven't followed the horse in the past probably would have turned me off it big run in the end.

[luv2bet]

hmmmm, Mav's on fire again I see. Wouldnt mind swapping wallets with ya Mav about now!!!!!!!

[Merriguy]

Sven, Mav, Raw --- great selections today in Brisbane. Have done well --- and now I'm "doing a Kenchar" and getting out well ahead. :) Thanks.

[Raw Instinct]

I have just remembered why I hate Sharp Aunty gone into the never back again stable for once and for all.

[Sportz]

Raw,

17 starts, 1 win. Enough said. I couldn't bring myself to back her at the odds she was today.

[Raw Instinct]

Sportz to be honest I have never been a big fan of the horse it was her last run that suckered me in today mainly be cause the horses she was against looked ordinary, well I don't know if I changed my mind on the others but she certainly is right there with them in that class ordinary

[Sportz]

I've had a good day. All I can say is thanks again Darren Beadman!!! :D

[Raw Instinct]

I am ready to skin Michael Cahill after that last ride that was awful the horse nearly had the audacity to win aswell in fact I would love to see that photo again.

[Svenvlad]

Mav,

You are dead set on fire, congrats on another huge day...

My own day can be summed up by one word - atrocious

Sven :)

[maverick1993]

Thanks guys ...having a run of luck of late :)

Didnt do well anywhere else though..maybe i should stick to Qld..
The Gold Coast was good with Catfish at real good odds i thought,,
nothing much anywhere else..
still have Daka's Gem later in Wa ...nice e/w odds aswell...i like this horse..

Happy days ...feel almost emabarrased about all the luck of late ...
going out to celebrate..even opening a nice red that i've been saving ..
enjoying the ride because i know its bound to stop sooner than later.. :)

[kiwi]

Brilliant effort Mav, your on fire mate

[mad]

Onya Mav, enjoy it all mate. You're certainly steered me into a couple nice ones recently. Thanks.

[crash]

HELLO !!!
I thought my insights did very well indeed today considering I"m new to Brisb. racing. Picked Classic Kala in the comp. as my special and was I right about Cold Start being finished this prep. {2nd. last]? My 2 picks here in R4 with Classic Karla was the Tri. by the way in 3.
Hissy Fit was exactly what I said he was and creamed them. Gees guys, you Brisbane 'experts' can't pick your nose let alone acknowledge someone who knows how to handicap [anywhere].

[Svenvlad]

are you serious?

Mav picked 6 of the winners with his analysis, Raw got Prend at $9.00 and you want credit for picking 2 favs among ure picks? Give it a rest mate..

Sven

[Sportz]

Ahhh yeah, that's pretty crook, Crash. Hard to imagine anyone tipping any better than Mav did today, and while Sven didn't do very well, he's usually spot on when it comes to Brisbane. He went sensationally last week.

[crash]

I know , I know Sportz. Make outlandish accusations to get attention [I know these guys are good but throw in a lot of tips per race and anyone looks good. On top how many?].
My point is a little acknowledgment for my tinny but astute imput wouldn't have cost much. They were the ones raving about Cold Start[oh dear]. Did they get the Tri in 3 ?. A Brisbane newby did.

Bris. is my new Mecca this season and I'm learning fast. OK, I'll adjust my ego next week so as not to offend anyone :-)

[crash]

OK. I know how my last post will be recieved. So lets move the anti. How about a $50 Brisbane challenge. Any bets you like as long as they are $10 to $50 win bets? Max. profit wins over 4 weeks. Any Brisbane 'experts' here interested ?. lol. I doubt it, I think they will crawl under their rocks:-)

[crash]

Bugger my ego,
I don't think you guys are capable of hadicapping your Grandmothers. Do we have a challenge or what 8-) ?

I don't think either of you have the bottle. You just like to prattle on with 5 tips per race. Wacko, we'll all get rich !!!

[crash]

No response.
My point about tipping ability has legs.

[BJ]

No response.
My point about tipping ability has legs.

There were plenty of responses. It is just that they were all from you.. :)

[Svenvlad]

do you need our approval or something mate?

I post these tips as a bit of fun for the Saturdays racing. I never proclaimed to be the worlds greatest tipster/punter. If you think you're a superior punter, fine. You are. Happy?

Sven

[crash]

Oh dear,

I think it's called egg on my face. A big win day with 3 tri's and several winners [for the Handbrake too] and one too many 'cheers and down the hatch" following. Sorry guy's. "Crash, put on that Dunce's hat and stand in the corner."

No offense to anybody. I really do like your work. Reading your posts has helped me a lot over the last few weeks.

Cheers and hope you had a good weekend.

[maverick1993]

I like Double Portion's chances at better odds than Champion Star and Rue the Saint might surprise at even better odds. Thunderwing has lost his thunder and now he's bottom feeding looking for a win.

I was on Cold Start last outing but I think he has had his day in the sun this time in and should be outclassed here. Hawkesy's Terrece should have this lot sorted but watch for his light weight other runner, Hissy Fit at the weight, might do them all in. Bit of class about that one in this grade.

Good punting.

Hi Crash...i would of been the 1st to offer congrads if you did well ,,but i only saw this post on the thread....but well done on a good day..
I like you thought Cold Start wouldnt get it his own way this time ...the other horse probably ruined it for both of them but it played into the hands of our pick Classic Carla who was way further back than i thought,,,was a fantastic ride by Bryne who was on fire..
Wasn't Proudly Agro a fantastic win in almost track record time ..was ridden shockingly down south and alittle pssd i didnt give him the credit i usually do
...

The more the merrier on these threads Crash ..i look forward to it every week,,its good to read other peoples views on the race..sometimes you've might of overlooked something that can be very helpful..
Was Svens turn last week,,,my turn this week,,,maybe it'll be yours next week ,,look forward to seeing how we go :)
remember we are fighting a battle against overwhelming odds so we need to stick together..

ps.. I usually list the chances in a race but i always single out the horse i'm on ..

[crash]

Thanks for the acknowledgment Maverick,

At most I might have 3 or 4 bets on a Sat. and only 2 of them were in Brisb. [I wouldn't bother with a whole card anywhere], so anything I say might be relevant because I've done the form to death and had over 35yrs. exp. doing it [and stuff up too, like anyone else].

Classic Kara's best ever rating was over THAT distance on THAT track in THOSE condt.[and here he was for a repeat, head and shoulders above the comp.] He got back [that's what he does] and ran over the top of them [that's what he does] with arguably the best jockey in QLD. on board. I had my house [a little bit of it anyway] on him for the win and quiet a few units for a 1x6x6 tri. which turned out I'd picked in 3.

Hissy Fit was Hawke's Smokey which no one noticed. I backed both his runners just in case. His top weight did nothing. End of my Brisbane campaign. The rest of the card was rubbish as far as I was concerned. Brindabella was my Aderlaide campaign at $13+ thank you. I don't need 20 bets a day, just a few at the right odds. Look for them and they are there [every day].

R5 Taree and R6 Geelong. That's it today [Sun.].

I really do apologize though for my outlandish 'up yours and if you think you can handicap, try taking this boy on' comments here when I was ignored as a contributor to this thread. Absolutely criminal behavior that I am ashamed of. Normally I don't drink but last night I sank a few in celebration as I got the Bindabella win and the 1x tri there as well. Big mistake hitting the computer when swizzled.

Cheers to all, Crash.

[Svenvlad]

Brindabella was a nice get crash, congrats...

Just curious, what do you base your ratings on? Class, times? something else?

As mav said on his last post though, the more the merrier....its good to get different points of view for a bit of conflict :)

Sven

Ps. Theres no 'arguably' in J.Byrne being the best jockey in Brisbane. He's a genius

[Sportz]

I've had a good day. All I can say is thanks again Darren Beadman!!! :D

What the....? What's he doing in Hong Kong today??? :eek:

Wins the last race in Sydney on Saturday and then wins the first in Hong Kong on Sunday!!! First I even knew about him riding there was the caller mentioning it just as the race was about to start and it was too late to back him. Paid $14!!! :(

[mad]

LOL Sportz, I was the same when i spotted his name. WTF?

[Sportz]

Race 3 has an interesting name there.

[crash]

Svenvlad,
I was hoping you would post, at least to tell me I'm a ****** or something. You were most gracious and more than generious....thanks.

My rating system takes a bit of work. About 5 races is my max on a Saturday and usually settle on three or four. Generaly I'm looking for the 4yr. old and up races with lots of exposed form. I quickly go through the various cards and cross out most races. I used to do all my own ratings but nowadays subscribe to:
'Superform' [$60 a month but worth every dollar and no, I don't even know them let alone work for them] from E.X.P.E.R.T F.O.R.M. I have to write it like that because if you try typing ********** you get the stars.
From their base run ratings I do my own based on lots of things. I do a complete horse history on all the runners in my few selected races and I'm looking for the form peaks and if this race is going to be one of them. Classic Karla's best ever rating was that distance, that track.

Bindabella was back on her home track and pet distance with C. Lindrop on board. I am a great fan of her ability. Pity she doesn't get the top horse flesh under her during the spring carnival. She'd make the boys look foolish. When the odds blew out from $10 to $13 before the jump, I doubled my bet.

Today I scored at Geelong on R6/7 Star Lord, won and paid $6. My Taree bet came second and was beaten by a $25 smokey that no amount of rating work would have picked.

You wrote:
"Theres no 'arguably' in J.Byrne being the best jockey in Brisbane. He's a genius". Agreed, but he has to sort out his weight problems pronto.

Cheers.

[D105Black]

To Maverick1993 (and Svenlad).

Thanks for your Brissie comments, especially Mav. I had a straight tri on Saturday at our local bookmaker in Port Moresby, PNG on Race 3 which paid $69.20 on the NSW totes. Keep it up and thanks so much. I suggest you stick to the Brisbane tracks and forget about Melbourne or Syndey as you are way offside with those states selections.

Thanks again as I collected a cool $415 from an outlay of $6 for that Brisbane selection. And I skipped the second whose exacta paid a whooping $65 on NSW totes.

You too good you are, Mav.