Dutching Systems

[wesmip1]

Anyone,

I have recently started looking at some dutch book type of betting systems where you take 2-4 horses in a race depending on size.

I am sure there are people out there who have been/are using this type of betting successfully.

Does anyone have any good suggestions regarding this form of betting ?

Essentially the way I am doing it at the moment is doing the form on a race and working out which races have only 2-4 horses with a good chance. I then stake these accordingly to win.

What percentage of the field should I dutch ? For example its no good betting on 4 horses in a 6 horse race as you can't dutch it very well. If anyone has any suggestions it would be appreciated. At the moment I am using approx 15-30% of the field. For example 1-2 horses up to 7 horse fields, 2-3 for 8-10 horse fields and 3-4 in anything greater than 10 horses.

Thanks

[BJ]

Anyone,

I have recently started looking at some dutch book type of betting systems where you take 2-4 horses in a race depending on size.

I am sure there are people out there who have been/are using this type of betting successfully.

Does anyone have any good suggestions regarding this form of betting ?

Essentially the way I am doing it at the moment is doing the form on a race and working out which races have only 2-4 horses with a good chance. I then stake these accordingly to win.

What percentage of the field should I dutch ? For example its no good betting on 4 horses in a 6 horse race as you can't dutch it very well. If anyone has any suggestions it would be appreciated. At the moment I am using approx 15-30% of the field. For example 1-2 horses up to 7 horse fields, 2-3 for 8-10 horse fields and 3-4 in anything greater than 10 horses.

Thanks

I would recommend only dutching horses that are value. The more horses you take, the less value you are getting across the board increasing your chance of losing in the long run.
Also I would suggest taking a % of the market as opposed to number of runners.
Taking 3 horses when 1 is showing $1.2 is completely different to taking 3 horses all showing $10.

[wesmip1]

BJ,

What do you mean by percentage of market ? I assume you means the chance of it winning according to the odds ?

Thanks

[marcus25]

Anyone,

I have recently started looking at some dutch book type of betting systems where you take 2-4 horses in a race depending on size.

I am sure there are people out there who have been/are using this type of betting successfully.

Does anyone have any good suggestions regarding this form of betting ?


Hi, I am a place bettor and don't do dutching, but here is what I do, and it works excedingly well, it may work for you too instead of dutching.
I select the horse paying the highest place divi above or = $2.00 from my first four selections. That's it. I could go for the win also but I am more comfortable with place (I put a few bucks on for win as well but not in a true each way fashion).
If you are worried about a short priced fav., Don't! Just look at Canberra race one and two today. both winners were only my second selections and actually won despite the short fav. It happens often enough I can assure you.
I think by dutching you always finish up with short odds.
I'm sure the devotees of dutching will disagree.
Good luck!

[BJ]

BJ,

What do you mean by percentage of market ? I assume you means the chance of it winning according to the odds ?

Thanks

Basically.
The example I gave was
3 $10 horses (representing 30% of the market)
versus
a $1.2 horse and 2 others. ($1.2 represents about 85% of the market.) Add 2 $10 horses onto that and you are betting your 3 horses, but betting into a 105% market already. Guaranteed to lose.

A tab market is ~117%. Say there is 10 horses. You can take the first 8 horses in betting.
You have bet on 80% of the field.
But
Chances are you have bet to about 110% market.

I basically always convert prices to chances of winning. On average, this works fine. Although obviously you have individual horses being well over/under rated.

[La Mer]

Anyone,

I have recently started looking at some dutch book type of betting systems where you take 2-4 horses in a race depending on size.

I am sure there are people out there who have been/are using this type of betting successfully.

Does anyone have any good suggestions regarding this form of betting ?

Essentially the way I am doing it at the moment is doing the form on a race and working out which races have only 2-4 horses with a good chance. I then stake these accordingly to win.

What percentage of the field should I dutch ? For example its no good betting on 4 horses in a 6 horse race as you can't dutch it very well. If anyone has any suggestions it would be appreciated. At the moment I am using approx 15-30% of the field. For example 1-2 horses up to 7 horse fields, 2-3 for 8-10 horse fields and 3-4 in anything greater than 10 horses.

Thanks


Try the following which should be of some assistance:

http://twonix.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28&Itemid=44

[crash]

Try the win bet. If 2 of value back both. dutch betting has an inbuilt problem with odds to win ratio [averages on your wins] in the real world of punting. It's theory sound wonderful, but isn't. Bit like trying to win on odds-on selections, which often your total dutch bet is [odds-on].

[Bhagwan]

Hi Wismip,
I have always been interested in the concept of Dutch betting & feel the most profitable way to approach it is to target races with 9-12 runners only & target 2 horses a race only, with a fixed amount being bet each race e.g. say $50 a race, the amount on each horse would be staggered depending on the price of the horse e.g. $34 on a 2/1 shot & $17 on a 5/1 shot.

This way , one has a chance to recover some losses more quickly if one has a good run & one is minimising the frustration of odds on value ,which often comes about when one is taking 3-4 horses a race.

Cheers.

[jonron]

Always remember that Dutch betting is a method of staking and NOT a method of selecting!! Basically what I am saying is if your selections are poor then Dutching will not save you.If you choose your races carefully( I prefer good class races with the fav at 2 or 3/1)then it is quite possible to make money by either

a) betting to win a certain amount per race

b) betting a certain amount per race,as suggested by Baghwan

The first step you MUST TAKE is to convert your selections odds to percentages.

If anyone is interested we can take this further

cheers

[Chrome Prince]

If anyone is interested we can take this further
cheers

So, you want to step outside eh jonron?

:D


Seriously, you make some good points. Also dutching erodes your overlays unless you can get a reasonable price. Try sticking to races where you'd actually think of laying the favourite, then you keep things easier with plenty of room to move.

If you can only make 20% of your invested amount per race, you must have a very high strike rate to make a profit overall.

[KennyVictor]

I select the horse paying the highest place divi above or = $2.00 from my first four selections. That's it.
Hi Marcus,

I've been meaning to check this out using my selections since you wrote it (only taken just over a year to get round to it) and it's showing some promise. Are you still doing it? Is it working still? Are you watching a screen up to jump time or how do you decide which horse to bet on. Did you try any other similar things before you settled on this.

I've just checked betting on my first two selections if they are over $2 for the place (mainly because I remembered the details of what you were doing wrongly) and it works quite well like that (about 5% profit).

KV

[marcus25]

Hi Marcus,

I've been meaning to check this out using my selections since you wrote it (only taken just over a year to get round to it) and it's showing some promise. Are you still doing it? Is it working still? Are you watching a screen up to jump time or how do you decide which horse to bet on. Did you try any other similar things before you settled on this.

KV
Hi KV!
Sure I do. Done it for years and it works fine.
Actually I concentrate mostly on the second and maybe on my third selection.
If none of the first three qualify,(ie.<$2.00), and the fourth is not too far down in my ratings, AND pays well, then I bet on that.
Of course the first selection has a better SR. just as it should, but I find the sec. returns more for a slightly lower SR.
I find the $2.00 or more return, very satisfying, it covers the next bet in full, if I want a next bet. Sometimes I get annoyed that I don't bet because it is below my odds, and it comes in paying $1.60, but I know from my analysis that I am far better off, leaving them alone.
Also the last few months I have followed Kenchar's hint, and watch the NZ races on Saturdays, looking for anomalies between the win and place prices.
The results are amazing, strange, that the same thing never happens in local races.
One thing though, I preselect horses to rate, that are not going to be popular picks, but have a solid chance of placing or winning.
Most days I just put in a small bet on the sec. selection because of work, but if I have a chance yes, I watch the odds couple min. before the jump, in the TAB, can't do it at home, get distracted and miss the race, and also I find that in the long run the prices you get on the different TABs even out, maybe with the bookies it would be different, but I'm doing OK so why increase the workload?
PS. Most important!!! I am not a gambler, I do it solely for the money and if I am up a certain amount, I want to win, I stop, also if I can see the day is not panning out right , I STOP! I am sure you know the feeling yourself, that some days are just losing days, so why persevere? There is always an other day tomorrow!
Good luck

[davez]

been dutching for sometime & made not too bad a fist of it, however as with any methods it always comes back to your selection method(s), if they hold up all is sweet.

you may want to consider setting a minumum price about your shortest nag, say 3/1, which should assist in you never having to bet into an odds on situation.

maybe also consider a reversal of the standard way of doing things by having the larger share of your total bet on the longer priced nag(s) & less on the shorties.

[Skater]

You could also chase the Favorite dutch style.

Lets say you wanted to win $10 when one of the Fav's get up an also recover any past loss along the way.

Divide the price of the Fav minus 1 into ten dollars.Thats it
Next bet will be the loss plus $10 = Total (Divide the price of the Fav minus 1 ).
Look its all been done before and this method will require a large bank lets say 40 times your target to handle the run outs and at times you will lose your bank.
But this method does,will work.

Cheers
Skater

[Shaun]

Any system that requires you to increase your bets after a loss or a win for that matter will in the end fail and is bad money managment to use

[syllabus23]

I'm not sure if dutching is about winning or trying not to lose.Having been there in desperate times,I suspect the latter.

If you go down the dutching path I suggest target betting.Get in,grab the cash and get out.Other than that try a few weeks "dry" punting,get your confidence back.Re-charge the batteries,refresh the brain cells.

IMHO (lolol I never did the imho thingo before) dutching is the last step before admitting defeat.I know,I've been there.

Good luck,,, cheers Bill.

[wesmip1]

Well I have been dutching 2 horses a race (1 unit on each).

I am doing well because my selection method is sound and based on common sense. I don't intend to dutch any more horses than 2 as the math gets more complicated and it only added a further 10% to my strike rate.

I have increased my strike rate from 25% winning races to approx 45%.

I usually will only alter the bets if one of the horses is below $2.00 ( place an extra unit on it ).

Thanks for all the constructive feedback.

[syllabus23]

Well I have been dutching 2 horses a race (1 unit on each).

I am doing well because my selection method is sound and based on common sense. I don't intend to dutch any more horses than 2 as the math gets more complicated and it only added a further 10% to my strike rate.

I have increased my strike rate from 25% winning races to approx 45%.

I usually will only alter the bets if one of the horses is below $2.00 ( place an extra unit on it ).

Thanks for all the constructive feedback.
Two horses a race ?? 1 unit on each ?? Dutching ???

Your strike rate for two horses 45% is fantastic.

Well done.

[wesmip1]

syllabus,

Here are the horses I took today ( yes its old news now But I am not going to start giving away free tips anymore when I can make money on them ). I did that before and showed I earned a profit just with my top selection. Taking my top 2 seems to work even better :

Grafton :
Race 2: 3,4 - Winner 4 - $3.10 (2nd Pick)
Race 4: 9,4 - Winner 4 - $3.10 (2nd Pick)
Race 5: 1,2 - Winner 1 - $4.90
Race 7: 1,4 - Winner 4 - $6.10 (2nd Pick)

Horsham
Race 6: 3,5 ( LOST 2nd and 3rd)
Race 7: 1,2 - WINNER - $4.60
Race 8: 1,2 - WINNER - $5.40 (2nd Pick)

Muswellbrook
Race 4: 1, 2 - WINNER $3.40 (2nd Pick)

Outlay $16 Return $30.60 Strike Rate ( 7/8 races = 87%)

Without dutching the top 2 selections :

8 selections for only 2 winners for $9.50 return.

No doubt about it, today was a good day.

[Shaun]

Nothing wrong with taking more than one runner a race but i would think the limit is about 3 and the best is to just put equal amounts on each....when the longer priced winners come in you will enjoy the profits.

[syllabus23]

I agree with you shaun there is nothing wrong with putting equal amounts on any number of selections.Every punter is entitled to do precisely as he/she chooses.I have no argument with anyones method,and wish all punters good luck.

However,putting equal amounts on (any number of) multiple selections is most certainly not dutching.It's something else.

[Stix]

syllabus,

Here are the horses I took today ( yes its old news now But I am not going to start giving away free tips anymore when I can make money on them ). I did that before and showed I earned a profit just with my top selection. Taking my top 2 seems to work even better :

Grafton :
Race 2: 3,4 - Winner 4 - $3.10 (2nd Pick)
Race 4: 9,4 - Winner 4 - $3.10 (2nd Pick)
Race 5: 1,2 - Winner 1 - $4.90
Race 7: 1,4 - Winner 4 - $6.10 (2nd Pick)

Horsham
Race 6: 3,5 ( LOST 2nd and 3rd)
Race 7: 1,2 - WINNER - $4.60
Race 8: 1,2 - WINNER - $5.40 (2nd Pick)

Muswellbrook
Race 4: 1, 2 - WINNER $3.40 (2nd Pick)

Outlay $16 Return $30.60 Strike Rate ( 7/8 races = 87%)

Without dutching the top 2 selections :

8 selections for only 2 winners for $9.50 return.

No doubt about it, today was a good day.Hey Wesmip1....

you still make money on them, even if you "give them away" :D .... I don't think the collective punting power of this forum would "rape" you of any "profits"

Good luck fella.....

[wesmip1]

Stix,

What you say is true but putting up my tips takes time and I don't have enough of that as it is ( with following the races, playing poker, betting on the dogs, doing the form, etc ) .

Good Luck.

[Stix]

Stix,

What you say is true but putting up my tips takes time and I don't have enough of that as it is ( with following the races, playing poker, betting on the dogs, doing the form, etc ) .

Good Luck.
Come work with me.... problem solved !! :D

[crash]

I'll like to give a IMHO of Dutching. A betting system I have had numerous encounters with mostly poor results. Whether that had more to do with the fact that when I have turned to Dutching or betting on more than one horse a race, which seems to be the main effort of Dutching rather than exact and true Dutching [hard because very close to jump SP's are required and that is not always practical unless all a punter has to do all day is sit in front of a PC], my normal 1 bet per. race method has been having a bad trot and I'm getting desperate for a win without working out the [true] sums of the endeavor.

My experience backing more than one runner in as race is a zero sum game. Look at it this way; In a 12 horse race if you back one runner that you think has a good chance of winning [lets say 25%] at say $6. Do you double your chances of winning by taking another runner who also is at $6 [25% chance of winning] and considered the other main chance? Well of course you don't. Both runners can lose and your chance of a win by either runner is not 50% but poor maths. If one of them wins you have really taken $3 on a 25% chance as both horses still have a 75% chance of losing, independently of each other, except you have 2 chances of one of them winning which increases your chances from 1 in 12 to 2 in 12, a small improved difference in % chance of a win [not 50% or 6 chances in 12]. A big underlay. Do it with 3 or more runners and the problem compounds [zero sum game].

I would have 1 bet on the $6/25% chance and the same on another race with a $6/25% chance [this is an example for simplicity]. Why? Because a multiple bet loss of 2 bets rules out the possibility of 1 of those bets being used in another race on a $6/25% chance. I maximize my percentage chances of winning by single win bets at much better odds overall in the long run and avoid the zero sum game trap of flawed maths by multiple win betting in one race.

Even strict Dutching [price according to odds] has the a similar problem as the above example. The more horses you throw into the Dutch, the higher the SR required and lower the overall odds from the combined bets in one race.
Yes, you are improving your chances of a 'win', but only by dramatically reducing you combined odds without improving you % chances of a win to make up for the odds reduction, because the % chance of a win for each runner is not an additive maths equation. That's what sucks punters into the illusion, they wrongly think it is.

One thing always seems to be lacking from proponents of Dutching or multiple win betting and that is the maths reality. What on the surface seems to be a swing, is in fact a big slide and that's why you never see the real maths.

[BJ]

Any system that requires you to increase your bets after a loss or a win for that matter will in the end fail and is bad money managment to use

At least any system that you have seen. Doesn't mean there isn't one.

Shaun Nothing wrong with taking more than one runner a race but i would think the limit is about 3 and the best is to just put equal amounts on each....when the longer priced winners come in you will enjoy the profits.

I always look at what I am going to return on my bet, and not what I put on it. This being the case, your suggestion of equal amounts bet on each selection would basically prove the shorter priced bets to be redundant. All your money is being made on the longer priced horses getting up, because you are much more aggressive in backing them.

Your 3 selections:
$2.50
$3.00
$100

You put $50 on each but only win when the $100 pop gets up. You actually lose money on the horse that is most probably going to win the race.

If you are getting value on all 3 selections, then in the long run it won't really matter.
But.
If this is the case, would it not be better to just put the lot on the $100 horse? I mean this horse that wins just better than 1 in 100 races, you are betting to return $5000 yet the horse that will win ~40% of its races, you are only betting to return $125.

For your $150 investment, by putting it all on the longest horse, you are betting to return $15000. Or by taking all 3, you are only betting to return $5275.
Surely you would be making alot more money by sticking with the longshot.

My point here is that I agree with dutching, not neccessarily backing longshots.

[Beagle]

Somebody on this very forum once stated that if you bet each way you are halving your win odds and risking twice as much as you should. Surely Dutch betting has the same risks. I could never come to grips with it but then to each his own.

[crash]

Beagle,

The $2 to $5 SP range can have some surprisingly good place odds and $3 to $8 in stakes [or cups] races up can have some great place prices, both situations often offer up to 40-50% of the win price. In those circumstances a place only bet can be good value.

I agree however about your statement for e/w betting in most situations. It is poor maths. I missed a $17 winner the other day I had for the win, It came second and the place price was $2.30 !!! Any units for the place in an e/w bet are usually better off in another race for the win.

[davez]

while hardly being on the "dutching bandwagon" facts are, all maths aside, there are many races that are not suited to this type of betting, & the odd few that are. its all about selection, of both the right race & right nags.

in selecting the right races i would suggest keeping & eye & ear out for goodish sized fields where "the dogs are barking", the louder the better. if there are worse bets than these in racing, i aint seen too many.

as for the right nags, they tend to pick themselves in such a race.

[Stix]

while hardly being on the "dutching bandwagon" facts are, all maths aside, there are many races that are not suited to this type of betting, & the odd few that are. its all about selection, of both the right race & right nags.

in selecting the right races i would suggest keeping & eye & ear out for goodish sized fields where "the dogs are barking", the louder the better. if there are worse bets than these in racing, i aint seen too many.

as for the right nags, they tend to pick themselves in such a race.G'day Fellow Forum Posters

Just as an aside to Dutching in certain fields, what criteria do you use to judge a race as a "good betting" race where yor betting the WIN or E/Way for arguments sake?

You always hear (and see on posts) people saying this race is a GOOD betting race or that was a BAD race to have a bet on etc....

I would imagine some of the criteria would be:

Class
Number of Runners
Number of First Starters/Resumers
Just wondering as I don't really analyse a race on a "good/bad betting race" basis, I try and find a horse I think (IMHO) will win the race - I don't really discount - say Maidens, races with more than 3 resumers/first starters etc... perhaps I could incorporate this thinking into my assessments.....

Thanks In Advance

[crash]

Styx,

I think it better to stick to 'good' betting races to select from and ignore the rest [there is always tomorrow]. Today at Sandown they were races 3/5/6. open handicap, 1 city win handicap and a mares race. My only 3 bets today.

All 3 I thought the fav. could be rolled. I won on R5 Surprise impact $3.90, with a 2nd. in R5 with Tantat Secret $2,40p.[I had a win only bet] and also won on R6 with Princess Ali an easy selection on weights and due to its bad jump last start and the fav. Kepola [just beat Princess Ali who ran third last start this distance] up in weights. Payed $9.44 AIS and $9 Stab.

There were other races there that as it turned out would have been easy to select but the winners [2] were poor odds considering the race type [3yr. old fillies and worse races. etc.]. A doodle of a day. I wish they where all this easy.

[Bhagwan]

I have done some research over some 20,000 races.

This is a Value Rule I have come up with.

If one is targeting 3 horses in the market e.g.(2nd,3rd,4th Favs) price on those 3 have to add up to a total div of approx $22.00+ (21.00 is ok) before it becomes a bet.

If targeting 4 horses e.g.(2,3,4,5th Favs), the market price has to total $34.00+ (33.00 is OK)

When one is calculating this , its simpler to round off the divs that one is looking at, to get the approximation.

This is done so as to be betting equivalent to 1/1 ($2.00).

I beleive one has to try & bet to approx 1/1+ as much as possible so as to absorb the natural run of outs that are unavoidable & avoid constant odds on betting as much as possible , so as to minimise the slow death syndrome that comes with it after a few outs.

One should find, following the value rule above, that they will either break even or be in front over say 40 bets, at level stakes, same amount on each.

We are then hoping ,that Dutching will make the opportunity for profit greater because of its proportional betting nature.

I would be leaning towards outlaying the same amount for each race but having the amounts staggered on each horse in proportion to their price.
That way we can take greater advantage of the larger payers that may come along.

Cheers.

[crash]

Good one Bagman, nothing like a good 'theory' :-)

I'd like to see that little lot worked out and done 1 min. before the jump. And wow, now I have the bets on, look at all the SP prices dramatically changing on the horses I'd so carefully worked out the correct betting ratios for [heck, my bets in total are now well into odds-on as they jump] !!! . Ho Ho.

On a more serious note, yes you could do that on track with the bookies [not on the tote], but If I handicapped a race and came up with 3 good chances [if 4 i wouldn't bet the race], why not just take the best price on a single bet? The money saved would be used on more of the same in other races. Your bets are going to get up enough to come out in front unless your handicapping is way out of wack.

[KennyVictor]

This is done so as to be betting equivalent to 1/1 ($2.00).

I'm too lazy to work out the exact figures but I think a $2 a $3 and a $17 would be a vastly different prospect from a couple of $7s and an $8. Both add up to 22 but represent a very different percentage of the market. Your theory about getting better than 1/1 may well be correct but you need to sharpen up your maths to take advantage of it.

KV

[davez]

correct kv, this is why a acceptable minimum price must be set, <3/1 or 4/1 makes this all a waste of time &, of course, the folding stuff.

[davez]

& crash, all these calculations can be done & revised in seconds & bets placed as close to the jump as possible, around 5-10 seconds, sometimes a few seconds after the jump in my experience.

[crash]

And the prices can still be changing [as any punter knows] after your bets are on no matter how late you get them on and how many bets are you going to miss trying that all the time? Plenty.

Apart from all that and having to very carefully select your races, the exercise might suit someone with absolutely no selection ability, just backing the 2nd. to 5th. If it is genuinely Dutched there are no big winners, just tiny ones regardless which horse wins [or doesn't].
It all seems like a big waste of effort and for what, a couple a bucks in front if your lucky and down the gurggler if your strike a run of winning favorites or a few bolters get up? It's a good theory perhaps, but the reality would be punting nonsense for the average Joe [IMHO :-)].

[davez]

And the prices can still be changing [as any punter knows] after your bets are on no matter how late you get them on and how many bets are you going to miss trying that all the time? Plenty.


sure they can change & usually do, mostly a minimal amount which makes no difference either way in the long run.

& no, crash your not going to miss plenty, in fact the only missses should be due to factors outside your control, such as internet connection dropouts, or the dropkicker starter that cant tell time & jumps em early. it does require a degree of concentration to get it right, so of course it does not suite everyone.