Metro System

[Panther]

This might be worth looking at--if anyone could access past results through a database would be greatly appreciated.

1/ Operate only on Metropolitan meetings--no maiden races or jumping races

2/ Runner must have started in the last 21 days

3/ Runner must have run placed last start

4/ Eliminate any who have won last 2 starts

5/ Runner must have won over distance of today's race--allow 50 metres either side

6/ Runner must have won at track

7/ Runner must have win S/R of at least 25%--runner must have had 8 or more starts

8/ If 3 or more runners left, ignore race.

[Panther]

For tomorrow:
MR 6 Tab 4--Grand Legend
SR 6 Tab 2--Serious Empire
WR 8 Tab 1--Rustique

[stebbo]

Hi Panther,

I can't emulate your exact rules (couldn't do +/- 50m either side of today's distance and couldn't eliminate races with 3 or more contenders), but here is what I've got with the other rules as posted.


Period: 01/07/2002 to 23/11/2005
Bets: 2,315
Wins: 424
S/R: 18.3%
RaceSR: 23.0%
P/L: -372.4
POT: -16.1%
LRO: 40


About TAB Takeout I'm afraid.

here's the rules that I've programmed.

RACE RULES:
include if Area = Metropolitan
exclude if Class = Hurdle, Maiden, Steeple

HORSE RULES:
include if Days since last Run between 1 and 21
exclude if Win Strike Rate (2) = 2

FORM RULES:
include if FinPos last run between 1 and 3

RATING RULES:
include if Win% Value between 25 and 100

STATS RULES:
exclude if Distance Wins = 0
exclude if Track Wins = 0
exclude if Career Starts between 0 and 7


Cheers,
Chris.

[crash]

Like so my system rules, they get winners [if they are any good], but kill the odds.

What we all need is rules that get the winners AND the odds. No easy task. Perhaps even impossible.
An elusive conundrum, I've spent years on with only moderate success from my best efforts. My time sent on handicapping has proved far more fruitful, but lots of work involved. We all want an 'easy' golden egg. The irony though is many spend years and years looking for that egg, when a half decent handicapping effort [studying how to do it], takes a fraction of that time.
Funny that.

[davez]

The irony though is many spend years and years looking for that egg, when a half decent handicapping effort [studying how to do it], takes a fraction of that time.
Funny that.

got that right there, crash

& anyway if one doesnt enjoy the effort required to do a bit of form now & again, then one should probably be off doing something else

as far as systems go, i now believe the simpler, the better, ala PPM

[Panther]

Thanks Stebbo, looks like back to the drawing board at least after the NFL season finishes (now talk about a licence to print money)

[mad]

You killing 'em in the NFL this season Panther. This is my first year following the NFL, with moderate amounts of success and failure. Is fun though. Who you like for this weekend?

[crash]

Thanks Stebbo, looks like back to the drawing board at least after the NFL season finishes (now talk about a licence to print money)

If I asked if you used a mechanical system for your great NFL results Panther, you'd probably think I was a wacko [as would anyone else]. Too many variables involved.

Am I saying something here [to nobody in particular] about irony and horse racing systems ?

PPM gets my vote too-)

[Panther]

There is a 'system' of sorts, but if I were to tell you, I would have to kill you. Suffice to say it is centred on the most important statistics of all--points scored and conceeded, and win percentage--this week am backing both San Diego and Indianapolis giving start. Have already had very positive results backing Indianapolis to win the AFC Conference and then laying them off at much lower odds--if they win I win in excess of $500, if they lose I break even (in effect odds of 500/1--not bad considering they are now $1.65). I just love Betfair

[Sarge1]

Hi Panther - Tab Nos 1-7 ONLY helps your system a lot

Theres a selection today from your system (sandown - Forest Spy)




Meetings considered : 1831
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 46.5%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 69.8%
Average Win Dividend : $5.50<O:p</O:p

[Sarge1]

Career Starts: 8 - 21
TAB Number: 1 - 7
Weight to Carry: 53.5 - 58.0
Days to Last Start: 1 - 21
Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 3
2nd Last Start Finish Posn: 2 - 24

Theres acouple of other filters however it seems difficult to cut and paste them

[Dale]

Career Starts: 8 - 21



Good rule that one,its one of the few in this thread that actualy mean anything,by implementing that rule you are concentrating on horses who have fresh legs and hopefully have not reached their career peak and therefore are good bets.

Compare that to the must have raced within 21 days rule which has been proved a myth and only sees you betting on horses that every man and his dog is betting on because they think it has some sort of fitness edge that equates to a greater POT.

If more sytems had rules like the first one and ignored rules like the second maybe as many wouldnt fall over.