The DART System

[moeee]

The DART system.

FACT 1.
If all the money in a win pool was distributed as dividends,then throwing darts at a form guide to come up with a selection would be a break-even system.
If you can't acknowledge that,then read no further.Either go back to the start,or go away.

FACT 2.
But only 83% of the WIN POOL is refunded.
So the dart system will incur a loss of 17 cents for every dollar invested.
Not in every race,but the more races bet on,the closer the loss of 17 cents in the dollar will be realized.

So it seems the only,YES,the ONLY,way to profit from gambling the WIN pool is to cause the dart to be attracted more towards the potential winners and repelled from the potential losers.But even with a 17% sharper edge on your dart,you still only break even.

Well I'm going to sharpen my dart so pointy that the mug punters at the TAB are going to be too frightened to stand in front of me.

[moeee]

First of all we get a dart board.
And because the system will be confined to greyhound win betting,The dartboard is divided up into 8 equal parts numbered from 1 to 8.
What we need to do is to increase the area occupied by the dogs with the greater chances.

ENTER RATINGS!
Let the fastest dog around be called "THE FASTEST DOG AROUND".He has run the fastest time ever recorded at the distance.It gets a rating of ZERO.
All other dogs are rated in margins beaten by THE FASTEST DOG AROUND.
They are calculated by subtracting their best time from our record setters time and multiplying by 16.
Now we have a way of comparing dogs ability against each other.
But of course dogs don't always run to their best time so we penalize our dog for things like...
Poor recent form.Box draw.Consistency.

Fast times from over year,or ten starts ago won't be used as the rating.
Penalties will be added to poor box draw.
Inconsistent dogs are usually clumsy.

Then we convert our modified ratings into percentages and set up our dartboard with the appropriate sized areas...and fire away!

[moeee]

NO WE DON'T!

WE BACK ALL DOGS according to Mo's Secret Formula of..
*IF I TOLD YOU THEN IT WOULDN'T BE A SECRET*

I will make the base unit $100 and the investment will be a percentage of this according to the percentage chance of the animal.
And the races will be rated also by a seat of the pants system which will be biased as to how much unknown factors are about.
So a group 1 race will be worth the full base unit and a race with 2 interstate quantities or a race with several first starters might only be worth a tenth of the base rating.
It's all about good betting races.
Anyway.The covers shall reveal as the story unfolds.

I will be back with examples for this Saturday nights Meadows meeting.
BEFORE THE EVENT!.PROBABLY SATURDAY MORNING.

And if the results don't reflect the predictions,at least we can see what went wrong and weigh up the modifications that have caused grief.

[moeee]

Had a bit of a play today at The Meadows and found a good bet in the 6th in EASY CAPTAIN.
Didn't even run a place!
Followed up with LING WAH in the 10th and it finished a mile back in third place behind the top rated even money favourite RUSTIC RIVER.
Financially was a reasonable result because LING WAH paid $4.00.

Found another variable today called FIRST ATTEMPT AT THE DISTANCE.

It really is much too early to go swimming in the uncharted waters but cosider JOMATO PEDRO from BOX 8 has a 6 to 4 chance of winning the 3rd event at Ballarat Cup Heat night.

$10 Each/way to start the ball rolling.

[darkydog2002]

I know it well .
Used to punt the dogs there years ago.
Wonder if Jim Burns is still alive / a lovely gentleman.

Cheers.
darky.

[Dr Pangloss]

The DART system.

FACT 1.
If all the money in a win pool was distributed as dividends,then throwing darts at a form guide to come up with a selection would be a break-even system.
If you can't acknowledge that,then read no further.Either go back to the start,or go away.



Well, I'm going to go away for good (and look for Stebbo and Crash).

FACT 1 is wrong wrong wrong. Everyone knows the favourite/longshot proliferates Australian gambling markets - well I thought everyone knew that but it appears there is an odd one out.


$$$$$$$$$$

[Winston_Smith]

Well, I'm going to go away for good (and look for Stebbo and Crash).Doc they dont deserve you here. I hear Stebbo and Crash are over at that other forum.
Thank you. Winston.

[darkydog2002]

Will you be using the name "fizzer " over there ?

Cheers.
darky.

[La Mer]

Will you be using the name "fizzer " over there ?
Cheers.darky.

Some say it's an ace of a site for punting. But I wouldn't know that. :-)

[moeee]

QUOTE
"It really is much too early to go swimming in the uncharted waters but cosider JOMATO PEDRO from BOX 8 has a 6 to 4 chance of winning the 3rd event at Ballarat Cup Heat night.

$10 Each/way to start the ball rolling."
ENDQUOTE

STILL RUNNING!!!

When I was much younger,I used to see great mirth and merriment in another young boy falling over.
As I became more older and wiser I found that there is nothing funny about other people suffering misfortune.
I now know that the appropriate response is to assist the poor bugger up and dust him down and offer sympathy.

And you would think that would certainly be the response from somebody who declares themself to be a Doctor!
Good Luck and best wishes to you Doctor Pangloss.Hope those at the other Forum find you entertaining their needs.

For those other young children out there I will be putting out a detailed report on the first at THE MEADOWS and if that turns to s h i t , as most of my endeavours tend to, I will catch you all next footy season.

[moeee]

1.TUFFAZ ALLEN
Has ability but is very erratic in performance.
Does have a reasonable record at THE MEADOWS though.
Four starts ago came out of BOX 1 here and rated a 17.9 in finishing 3rd.
Ran poorly twice since gives a penalty of 2.5 makes a Final rating of (20.4)

2.CUNNING LAD
Quick beginner very suitably drawn.
Has won one of two starts here.
Rated a 17.4 winning here 2 starts ago.
Unplaced last run gives a penalty of 0.9 making a Final Rating of (18.3)

3.FLIGHTNING
Very small bitch that tends to get knocked over a fair bit.
Does all her racing in town.
Rated a 21.6 three starts ago and has performed better at Sandown.
Give a 0.8 bonus for improvement gives a Final rating of (20.8)

4.SERBO CHARGED
Only the four starts to never miss a place.
Yet to win in town but ran second in both starts in maiden races here.
Rated 19.5 at it's very first start here.
Failed three times since gives a penalty of 2.1.Final rating (21.6)

5.ONE PLEDGE
Just out of Maiden Class but is improving in ability.
Small bitch usually keeps out of harms way.
Rated 16.5 last start here.
BOX penalty of 2.1 gives a Final rating of (18.6)

6.BOT FLYER
Three starts here for two seconds.
Overall a capable but very inconsistent performer
Rated a 16 here four starts ago
Penalized 2 for BOX and 2.3 for inconsistency gives Final rating (20.3)

7.DYNA MANN
Two starts here for a Maiden heat and final win
Both out of this very box but in slow times.
Rated 18.9 at it's first win but expect improvement
Learning to race and give a bonus of 1.3 gives Final rating (17.6)

8.ISSI AUSSIE
Very consistent performer having first run here
Has a win in good time at Sandown
Rated 14.6 at Sandown six starts ago
0.7 penalty for first start at the track is a Final rating of (15.3)

9.MEREY LASS
First start in town.
Seems like a dog prepared to have a go but hard to catch
Rated 19.8 when began slowly at Geelong two starts ago
Averaging that run and the following run give Final rating (16.3)

10.ORTOBE
Lovely name.Second attempt in town after failing
Definately improving in ability.
Rated 16.5 at Geelong recently then continues to run well
Unfamiliar with circuit gives a penalty of 0.9 and Final rating (17.4)


Margins converted to prices gives this assessment

1. - $27.2
2. - $11.7
3. - $31.9
4. - $43.9
5. - $13.2
6. - $26.1
7. - $8.8
8. - $3.5
9. - $5.3
10.- $8.2

Of course there will be at least 2 scratchings so the prices need to be adjusted to suit.
They are set to 100%

[moeee]

Race 1. The Meadows.Assessed and needed prices.

1. - $18.3 ($68)
2. - $7.9 ($17)
3. - $21.5 ($90)
4. - $29.6 ($160)
5. - $8.9 ($20)
6. - $17.6 ($64)
7. - $6.7 ($13)
8. - $2.4 ($3.35)

Seems a lot of good,hard work has gone out the window studying this race as no value found.
Perhaps the PINK may come up at suitable odds!


There is a staying race at the Meadows tonight so I thought I would have a go at rating it.
My calculated prices have come up with obvious and glaring errors.

I've been going by a universal criteria of the dog's rating is calculated by subtracting its time from the track record time.
This seems to work reasonably well when comparing races at the same track.
But it seems it is much easier for a dog to run closer to the record at the minor tracks.
This appears to be that the track record at the minor tracks would have been lower had the distance been attempted by the dogs that ran the records at the city tracks.
A lower class of dog usually runs at the country tracks.
As the dog shows outstanding ability,it continues its career in the city and the country tracks don't get a chance to have their records lowered.

The good thing about RATINGS is you should be able to compare performances from different tracks over different distances and even from different eras.
There quite possibly is a formula more accurate than subtracting from the race record time.Perhaps subtracting from the overall average race time,but I think the results would be the same.

I have now decided that the benchmark time to be used is found by subtracting 1/100ths of seconds from the track records until the Ratings look about right.
So if,for example,smart dogs win at Sandown at 0.6 seconds outside the track record and run 0.3 seconds outside the record at Geelong,then instead of using the track record at Geelong as a base I will use that time minus 0.3 seconds.

BRILLIANT!
SEE YOU AT THE FRONT OF THE COLLECT WINDOW QUEUE!

[Duritz]

Mooee - that's inspirational stuff, it really is. And those people who scoff, take your lips off one another's a*ses and enjoy Mooee having the balls to publish his voyage of discovery here on the site.

Dr Pangloss - if you were any more of a wan ker you'd be arrested for public indecency. "Wrong. Wrong. Wrong." you said. "Well I thought everyone knew that but it appears there's an odd one out." Mate if you were in a real betting ring, you'd be the odd one out. Not in a long time have I read something so insulting and inexcusably degrading as your appraisal of Mooee's thoughts. Fair dinkum - if I was in the same room as you and you said that to any other person I'd rip you apart, and I don't mean physically. Your narrow mindedness is matched only by your smugness and misplaced self belief. But enough about you, you're a waste of space.

Mooee: don't use track records. They vary greatly. You were on the right path when you said to find average times. What you would be better off doing is finding a reliable track (in Victoria I'd choose Geelong, good class, plenty of racing, always about the same level) find the median (using only the 457m trip of course) for the various grades, and that gives you the difference in lengths between the classes (at Geelong). You can apply those class differences to all the provincial tracks. Next, find the median of all the grade 5's at all the tracks. (use grade 5's because biggest sample size). To all those median times add the difference b/w the G5 and the FFA median times, and you have a STD FFA time for all tracks. Now all you need to do is work out how STRONG or WEAK each of those times is. Obviously, a FFA at Sandown on a Thursday is stronger than a FFA at Wang on a Sat. This part I won't reveal on here but that's something you need to discover. Once you have that, you have a STD FFA time for EVERY track and distance, and a figure for what each of those is worth. The easy way then is to call the Sandown Thursday night and Meadows Saturday night FFA time a 100 (lengths), and to adjust the others accordingly. If you thought track X was 4 lengths inferior to the Sandown FFA, then lower it's FFA std by 4 lengths (0.23 seconds) and you have a time which reflects what a 100 length rater (ie a winner of a Sandown Thursday night FFA in STD time) would rate at that track. Then, you have what you envisioned - a way of comparing all dogs over all distances and all tracks.

Keep me posted with how you're going.

[moeee]

As it appeared after assessment,there were no over the odds selections in the Race 1 at the Meadows so I count that as a win for the ratings.

QUOTE

"There is a staying race at the Meadows tonight so I thought I would have a go at rating it.
My calculated prices have come up with obvious and glaring errors."

ENDQUOTE

Seems my glaring and obvious errors weren't huge errors after all.
Had the Yellow at Even money and the Blue at 4 to 1.
Blue wins easily and the Yellow gets brought down at the home turn after working into second place.
From what I am learning,and from last years disastrous effort,Their is no money to be made by backing the fastest or the fittest dogs.
The money seems to be given to the backers of the most consistent dogs.

I'll see what I can find for SALE on Sunday.

Yes I know no-one is interested,but I am!

[Duritz]

I'm interested Mooee, keep going at it.

[moeee]

Thanks for the leg up Duritz.
I'm going where probably many others have been before I suppose.
Don Scott got where he was bu studying the handicappers weight scales.
But still a maiden at Donald one week isn't the same as a maiden at Donald 2 weeks later.
This is the hard bit.

[Chrome Prince]

moeee,

I'm interested mate, keep at it, you are attempting something that not many are able to make successful.

The fact that you are posting your method "warts and all" is to be commended, not derided.

Have you read greg's punting page? This may enlighten you a little further or give you more ideas. I can't post the link, but a Google will find it.

I believe it is possible to use track records, but only with adjustments. A track record at Geelong is not the same as a track record at Sale, you might make an adjustment for the track variants.

The main problem one faces is the sh*t happens factor with greyhounds. Dogs get carted off the track or wiped out, through no fault of their own.

I reckon you might look at early splits rather than race time and do pace ratings, the likely leader.

How many times has the dog led in the first split?

A dog that can ping out from the boxes has the huge advantage regardless of actual race time, BUT must have the class to win.
If you can pin down the likely leaders, that have a high win strike rate, you could probably rate from there.

Instead of looking for dogs that led all the way to win last start, you should probably look for dogs that have a high strike rate of leading and winning, but did NOT win last time out, that's where the value is I think.

It's extremely hard to find value with the greyhounds, but you will when there is a short priced favourite that is vulnerable. I.E. it won it's last start well, but there was a skirmish which gave him a clear run, and normally he would not have got the lead.

Just some of my thoughts.

[moeee]

Duritz
I'm hearing what you are saying,but becareful when you make statements like "Track records vary greatly".
If the statement is untrue,then everything based on it will also be untrue.
Track record is actually quite stable and is a very good starting point.
But your mention of the average grade five time is also very stable and would also be a good starting point.
I don't wish to throw away my progress in favour of your suggestion just yet.But I did have a play with your idea and found it suggests an order of class for each track/distance combination.
The 2 city tracks about equal with Geelong.

QUOTE "Now all you need to do is work out how STRONG or WEAK each of those times is." ENDQUOTE

Pretty much what the whole procedure is about!

I find that rating dogs shows up the differences between tracks.And am finding the "strength and weakness" of fields is being reflected in the ratings.Sometimes they appear just plain wrong.
Like the Healesville ratings using the track record continually throws up ratings way over their ability.
I just play around until they get close to looking right.
And the more animals I rate the more accurate my benchmark will be.
I can see some sort of a shortcut in your proposal,DURITZ,but I'm having a ball doing it my way.

[moeee]

Chrome Prince.
Nearly everything you mentioned in your post is infinite wisdom.
But the key is to turn all that wisdom into numbers.
Because that is how mathematics works.
If you could turn all what you suggested into figures,you would be very successful.Or even more successful.
Yes an reading Greg's page,but so is every other punter.
I am following a plan and am putting it up when it shows promise.
MAKE THAT IF!

Anyway I got the first 3 at SALE to post.
So you can cheer 'em home for me if you would.

[moeee]

SALE RACE 1
1. First starter.No rating.
2. Done nothing at its only start 36.16
3. Rated on performance at Healesville 21.33
4. Rated 17.3 first up.Failed twice since 18.8
5. Averaged his last two ratings 22.16
6. Done nothing but get tired so far 33.9
7. Placed first up but done nothing since 26.35
8. Averaged the only two ratings 23.41

Very poor field but surprisingly is not too bad a betting race 50%

Take $2.35 the Blue for $28
Take $9 the White for $10

SALE RACE 2
1. Ran okay time in a 311m quali. 12.32
2. Rated 19 and then failed 21.97
3. Only one run 16.48
4. Done nothing from the cherry 1st start 26.24
5. Had 22 chances and still a maiden 18.67
6. Runs okay over the real shorts 19.53
7. Seems to prefer the inside 23.31
8. Shocking form 25.68

Terrible race 20%

Take $1.65 the RED for $15

SALE RACE 3
1. Won at Evens 2 runs ago.Failed big odds other runs 26.29
2. Form looks a lot better than it is 23.68
3. Best dog but prefers further 19.71
4. Form looks a lot worse than it is 20.65
5. Prefers it further but is better than these 16.82
6. Not suited out this wide 24.52
7. Form very hard to follow 25.09
8. Averaging the last two ratings 19.36

Plenty of shocking form to read 80%

Take $2.70 the Yellow for $18 Each/way
Take $10.60 the PINK for $7 Each/way

[downbylaw]

Keep it up moeee im finding it an enjoyable read and quite interesting. The only dog that stands out for mine today at sale is arvo's athena in the 5th.

[Duritz]

OK I've been inspired out of my laziness to apply my method to the Sale dogs today. It is an extension of what I posted advising Mooee ealier in the thread, and here's the results of handicapping based on that. Only the raced brigade have been rated. If a dog hasn't raced, it is ignored for the sake of this method:


Race 1 name price
3 STONEYS CHOICE $2.9
5 BAYLES MAGIC $4.7
7 BIG RUSO $6.1
4 POPS MEMORY $6.1
8 CAMERA SHY $14.5
6 FOXY TIGER $29.9
2 KANSAS JACK $64.1

Race 2 name price
3 MISS DAISY $1.9
2 SALE CITY $2.4
5 SNOW EXCEPTION $20.8
6 KINGA LAD $48.1

Race 3 name price
8 JOEL LEIGH $3.9
5 TEDDY EVIL $4.1
2 MADDYS TERRAH $5.6
3 GALLOPING TARA $6.7
1 FUNKY BOMBER $9.2
4 MOVE OUT $21.4
6 DAMAS DOZA $92.6
7 CRICKET CUTIE $294.2

Race 4 name price
8 THIS IS LIVING $1.6
1 ELECTRIC ELLIE $6.6
7 GRAND DUTCHESS $7.5
2 STRATHMORE $21.8
5 COMMANDO SHANE $41.0
3 MELALLY LAD

Race 5 name price
8 ATOMIC JET $3.5
1 JABBER WOCKY $4.4
2 ARVOS ATHENA $6.1
7 ROCKY $7.4
3 ENDLESS PIT $8.4
4 LEE LU SUSIE $15.2

Race 6 name price
7 BRIDGE OF HOPE $2.0
6 BLUE MANIA $5.7
5 SHELBURN $9.0
3 LINUS $12.5
1 FUZZ $16.0
8 TUCKER THIEF $31.3
2 FESTER CRAWFORD $50.5
4 DUCAL PRINCESS $78.1

Race 7 name price
1 STAY COOL $2.1
8 JAILHOUSE ROCK $4.6
6 KICKBACK MISS $11.0
4 LATROBE WARRIOR $11.1
7 SPANISH DRUM $15.4
5 FREDS GRANDO $21.2
2 DETERMINATOR $64.9
3 SMURFS ATLANDRIA $277.8

Race 8 name price
7 JOEL ALEX $3.9
6 FLYING VIRUS $4.5
8 BILLIE GENE $5.6
1 SCORCHIN $6.3
2 FEEL THE FURY $9.3
4 BLUE BONNIE $20.4
5 REMAIN SILENT $62.5
3 BAMBOO $92.6

Race 9 name price
2 SYONIC STORM $2.3
8 TWISTED TEDDY $5.8
4 BRETT TO WING $9.6
5 BE HUMBLE $12.8
1 BEAU IDEAL $13.9
6 RAITCHU $16.3
10 PANDORA LASS $17.5
3 GALLOPING GAIL $75.8

Race 10 name price
6 SCRUM $4.2
7 SILENT RUNNING $4.6
2 REGAL JAMES $6.3
8 JAGATH $6.9
3 KILMANY GHOST $12.1
5 EFFJAY HORRO $14.4
4 WILD WENCH $14.9
1 ZOLAS GIRL $43.5

[Duritz]

There is no off position on the genius switch.

[moeee]

So down $28
and $10
Then another $15
and yet another $36

WHAT'S THAT? - A RETURN? - YOU'RE KIDDING?
My Goodness!

Okay running tally.

Invested $89 - Return $34.20

POT = 34.2 - 89 = -61%

Loss of $54.20

What did we buy for this big loss.
For one thing,my Comfort Factor is not $100 but more like $50.
So the actual wagers will be halved from now on.
And I really need to sort out those short races like the Cranbourne 311 metres.They are killing me!
And perhaps move out of the poor quality and get into some reasonable quality races.
The concern here is that the fair dinkum form students would be concentrating on these races so the value would be eaten up by the professionals.

[Duritz]

The value being eaten up by the professionals is a fallacy Mooee, because we all get the same odds on the dogs. If they were eating up the value, then there'd not only be none left for you, there'd be none left for them too, thereby defeating the purpose.

Hey BTW about track records, trust me, they vary greatly. You'll improve the method markedly as soon as you stop using them and use average times.

[moeee]

If it looks like a horse and walks like a horse,then it is probably a horse.
The only way to judge whether the ratings being outputted are accurate,is to record the results.
And the sample has to be large.I CAN'T WAIT!
So I have decided to rate races where I have some sort of idea of the main chances and approximate prices using the Watchdog formguide assessed prices.
Then I can compare the ratings suggestion of the market.

GEELONG Race 8.

1. TUSKEN RAIDER -5.5 5% $20
2. FLYING EOS -6.8 3% $33
3. DYNA SHERLOCK -5.9 4% $23
4. PEDRO ALLEN -4.3 8% $12
5. SCRATCHED
6. WANNADOO Winner 45% $2.20
7. FIRING ZONE -3 13% $7.30
8. ROUGE FOX -2.2 20% $5.20

Okay.So looking at these,there are 2 concerns.
The white has had a lot of success in Queensland and is having its 1st start here.Did I under estimate its ability?.It left the scene 2 months ago with ordinary form.Will the trainer have it near its peak?Just in case it runs its best let's adjust its rating.

And the other query is will the PINK be able to run out the distance.
I am having a lot of trouble with dogs running well over short distances and failing over further.This is mainly due to my yardstick of using track records being wrong.Let's adjust here as well.

The chances are now.

1. TUSKEN RAIDER $21
2. FLYING EOS $36
3. DYNA SHERLOCK $23 down to $6.10
4. PEDRO ALLEN $12.40
5. SCRATCHED
6. WANNADOO $2.20 out to $2.40
7. FIRING ZONE $8.00
8. ROUGE FOX $5.20 out to $7.10

I find these a very comfortable set of prices.
So the betting goes like this:

TRIFECTA
6/3,7,8/3,4,7,8 - cost is $4.50

And the Green for $20 a win at over $3.20 but will take any odds.

[wesmip1]

Moeee,

As per your request in the other thread here is my analysis of the Cranbourne Race 5 (races in 15mins)

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 230pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=307 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 113pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5522" width=151><COL style="WIDTH: 41pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2011" width=55><COL style="WIDTH: 76pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3693" width=101><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" width=151 height=18>Dog</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 41pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" width=55>TAB_No</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 76pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" width=101>Norm Dist Odds</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>INQUISITIVE JAY (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=1#1)</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="14558.855718265628">$ 14,558.86 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>TURBO UNO (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=2#2)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="1.8808679232337824">$ 1.88 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>FLICKA FRIEND (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=3#3)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="29.465188185866303">$ 29.47 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>GUNNADOO CHARM (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=4#4)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="2.5099009583369489">$ 2.51 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>DYNA CONROD (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=9#9)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>5</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="43.076811264963808">$ 43.08 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>DYNA JEWEL (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=6#6)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>6</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="78.968822406549293">$ 78.97 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>MOONSHINE MAGIC (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=7#7)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>7</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="41930.007757746906">$ 41,930.01 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>BLACK BUBBLE (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=8#8)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>8</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="17579.072877776878">$ 17,579.07 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

This program doesn't give the exact market figures but lets you identify which dogs to concentrate on. I wouldn't bet this race normally but for today lets see how this pans out for a fun bet : Any2 for dogs 2 , 4 and 3.

Sorry about the colours but it was a cut paste job from excel.

Hope this helps.

[wesmip1]

OK by the time I wrote the thread the race was just about to start.

It finished with Number 2 winning.

One thing I forgot to mention was that was a 3 race rating. Below is the 2 race rating :

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 230pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=307 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 113pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5522" width=151><COL style="WIDTH: 41pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2011" width=55><COL style="WIDTH: 76pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3693" width=101><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" width=151 height=18>Dog</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 41pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" width=55>TAB_No</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 76pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" width=101>Norm Dist Odds</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>INQUISITIVE JAY (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=1#1)</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="24.324084877831513"> $ 24.32 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>TURBO UNO (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=2#2)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="1.8030507239590643"> $ 1.80 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>FLICKA FRIEND (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=3#3)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="9.6920737520853155"> $ 9.69 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>GUNNADOO CHARM (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=4#4)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="320400.7812323377"> $ 320,400.78 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>DYNA CONROD (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=9#9)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>5</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="15.341284151693463"> $ 15.34 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>DYNA JEWEL (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=6#6)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>6</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="4.2389206445420511"> $ 4.24 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>MOONSHINE MAGIC (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=7#7)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>7</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" align=middle x:err="#DIV/0!">#DIV/0!</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 113pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" width=151 height=17>BLACK BUBBLE (http://www.tabonline.com.au/netbet/getform?Form=/2005/12/12/MG05form.html&Runner=8#8)</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #33cccc" x:num>8</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" align=middle x:err="#DIV/0!">#DIV/0!</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Depending on the number of races you go back you will get different numbers. I usually look around the 2 race rating, 3 race rating and 5 race rating before determining my selections.

Obviously in this race we should have taken the any2 using the 2 race rating as it resulted in paying $4.10 with 2 and 6 coming in. It also picked the quinella paying $8.20 and exacta paying $7.80

Good Luck

[moeee]

I don't understand why you have 2 sets of ratings WESNIP.
Firstly Gunnadoo Charm is way overs,but in the other market,Dyna Jewel is way overs.
Obviously one or both of those markets is wrong.
I didn't rate that race yet,but will try and be honest without bias and do it soon.
I would like to see if I can run as well as you did by picking the winner.
Today I had a shortie called WANNADOO and it ran nowhere.
And the winner had 8 starts at the track distance for one minor placing.
And the winner only pays $5.40!
Can anyone out there tell me the system that predicted Pedro Allen as being the winner?
That is the system I would like to read more about.

Bye the way THANKS WESNIP.

[wesmip1]

Moeee,

The way the ratings work is purely based on times (with some track and box bias). Obviously each race time is going to be different for different reasons.
Thus the different ratings look at different time frames for the race times. The first rating (2 races) takes a look at a shorter number of races thus I class this as the current form of the dog. Whichever dog shows the lowest odds using this is more than likely the dog in "form". The 3 race rating is the one most people use as it allows a better feel for the last month of racing in the dogs career.
The 5 race rating (if available) is used for the medium term - longer term rating that shows which dogs have performed over their career. Further back than 5 races isn't really necessary but I sometimes do it if a dog has raced a lot.

The ratings allow me to look at which dogs have improved over the 5 race period and also which dogs just ran into a bit of bad luck. I usually look for a certainity which is a og which rates lower than $1.20 on all 3 ratings and then I check out the form. The form usually shows a couple of the other dogs got checked heavily. For instance you said Pedro Allen, Did you know in its last 8 starts it had been checked 6 times. This is because it was a bit slow out of the box, or because it had bad box draws. It lost a combined 22 lengths due to the checks. This shows that if this dog actually got a clear run he was a good chance. On the other hand our favourite Wannadoo had only been checked 4 of his last 8 starts and hadn't been checked at all in his 3 previous starts. This is because he usually gets away quickly but looking at his draws he has been running out of the inside boxes recently and this could have been improving his chances. Looking at Wannadoo also shows that he has not raced well in outside boxes with no wins from boxes 6,7,8.

So based on the form it looks like Wannadoo is not such a good selection after all. In fact it is about even with Pedro Allen if Pedro Allen can get a clear run. Of course in box 4 I wouldn't think this likely. o lets go to the speed charts. Looking at those Pedro Allen has the best split time marginally. And Box 5 is scratched which will give Pedro Allen an easier run. looking at his rating he had a Quick escape from the box last race and there is a good chance he could repeat this performance.

Looking further into this I noticed the dog in box 2 has been running wide which could be a problem for Pedro Allen. He has a 1 dog gap and this may be enough to get clear before any collisions occur. This also shows me the dog in Box 1 is going to get a nice clean run through the first corner. So my rating for Dog 1 should be up a bit more as he should get a good run and miht be able to rail it and get to the lead.

Finally the dog who ran third has a great record from box 8. He likes to run from the outisde boxes so he needs a rating boost as well.

I could through this for most of the dogs but it takes a long time to rate a race properly. That is why i use my 3 rating system to come up with some selections and then I concentrate on these races.

I hope this explains how I do some of my form and might help you in some of your ratings.

Good Luck.

[moeee]

IT'S NOT WORKING!

My deadly set of ratings have died.
God rest their poor soul.

Enter the DART SYSTEM Mark-II.

We have a Dart-board with 8 equal sized areas on it.
If we discharge our missile,say 10,000 times, we would hit each number 12.5% of the time.
If the 8 areas weren't of equal size then the larger sized areas would be struck a greater percentage of throws than the areas of smaller size.
If you can't understand that,then perhaps you may need to go and join Doctor Pangloss at the other Forum.

Now we get rid of the dartboard and replace it with a greyhound race with 8 competitors.
If this race with those 8 competitors was rerun 10,000 times,it is unlikely that each greyhound would win 12.5% of the races.
The goal we are seeking is to find what share of those 10,000 races each greyhound will win.Then we can convert those percentages into prices and have a deadly accurate set of prices to use for the 10,001th race.

Let's suppose some Scientists or Geologists,(Good-day Punter57),actually conducted this experiment of 10,000 races,and recorded the results on a top secret document.

Here is the document.It turned up in my email box this morning.

1. 12.5%
2. 12.5%
3. 12.5%
4. 12.5%
5. 12.5%
6. 12.5%
7. 12.5%
8. 12.5%

LOOK FAMILIAR?
Yes it's our dartboard.Those scientists were playing darts!

We know those results ain't greyhound races because,even though we have never seen 10,000 races rerun, races won't look like that.
The percentage wins of races are decided by things called Factors.
And the various Factors contribute to percentages by varying degrees.
We need to establish what these Factors are, and then establish the importance of each Factor.
The way to find out some of these factors are to watch races and see what takes place.
I used to believe the biggest single factor is that the dog that wins the race is usually the dog that can run that distance in the quickest time.
Well playing around with ratings has given me second thoughts.
Probably the biggest factor is the dog that can lead will win a large proportion of the races.And the dog that can begin in the first 2 will win a large share.
Racing style is another.

If you are out there ROCKSTEADY,take notice.I'M SORRY!

PEOPLE!
I am going to videotape Greyhound races.
I am going to watch what the winning greyhounds did and what the losing greyhounds didn't do.
I am coming back to let you all know.

[moeee]

Looks like I've been given the ****.
Gotta give yourselves credit for that.
Can I tell you something?
I was at the tote tonight and I looked at the formguide for races 8,9,10 and 11.
I looked at a thing called position in running.
It shows where a dog was positioned during the race.
I didn't go through any sort of rating or market framing exercise.
But I did use it to try and position where the field might finish.
The run through tells how a dog began,whether it weakened or ran on or just plodded.
Well compared to my computerised deadly ratings,it just leaves it for dead.
Race 8 I picked the winner although it was odds-on.
Also had the second and third as fair chances.But so did most punters.
But the thing is,that with very little mathematics,the result was approximately what I predicted.
Race 9 had the winner in my top 2 but didn't fancy the 2nd dog but the 3rd was the other of my top 2.
Race 10 thought the winner was a place chance,didn't like the 2nd dog,and I can't remember who ran third.Maybe I gave it a winning chance.Anyway a poor result.
Race 11.Had the winner in my only 3 chances,didn't like the 2nd dog and the 3rd dog was also in my top 3.
So there you go!
Now I will study the dogs using this part of the formguide as my number one step.
I'll put my tips up for Ballarat quaddie races and for Warrnambool.
Still might have a go at videotaping races.
I have access to the races and a vcr with a timer so maybe...one day in the near future...
BIG KEV...If you're up there...I'M EXCITED!!!

[punter57]

Morning Moeee. I would never bet on Greyhounds unless I could discover a certain MATHEMATICAL way of beating them. The reason is pretty simple; for far too many owners/trainers the "dogs" is a hobby. Many are amateurs giving their pets a night out after the pets have given them (the owners/trainers} an excuse to go for a walk every morning, to get away from the missus, to have a drink with their mates at the track etc etc. In other words they are NOT serious.This is not BAD in itself but as they are not motivated enough for me to risk my dough on them and their mutts, I'll pass. As was pointed out in a very fine song one time (not about Greyhound Racing!!!} "whether he won or whether he lost; to him it was always the same". For me it ISN'T!!! Still, I always enjoy your postings, Moeee as it's clear you read OTHER'S postings closely. good on ya and good punting!!!

[moeee]

Stuff the calculations.I got brains.Ain't no computer ever built that can outperform the human brain.Just interpret the information that needs interpretting and away we go.The prices are what I suggest as being the TRUE ODDS.

Sandown Greyhounds.

Race 1
1. Slow beginner and hopeless as well 1%
2. Yet to race.Not today 1%
3. Has had 3 runs.Heaps better than the above 19%
4. Better chance of leading than the white 35%
5. Slow beginner continually gets spanked 5%
6. Moderate beginner could get close at the finish 13%
7. Will get home but the bird would have flown 25%
8. Same chance as the inside boxes.NONE! 1%

No.4 @ $2.90
No.7 @ $4
No.3 @ $5.20

Race 2
1. Begins alright but don't really want to chew the bunny 10
2. Will go past the toppy at about the home turn 28
3. And this bugger will come over the top of both of 'em 38
4.
5. Just a dog making up the numbers at the rear 2
6. perhaps a chance of finishing third.NAH! 4
7. Begins okay so must have a place chance 11
8. They say it's suited out here 7

No. 3 @ $2.60
No. 2 @ $3.60

Race 3
1. No way 1
2. Probable leader 5
3. Will account for the check with ease 12
4. If can avoid the tiring runners can run second 22
5. Maybe can catch the bus with the red 1
6. Leaders stopping so quickly this one will appear as Tulloch 51
7. Making up the numbers 3
8. So is this 5

No. 6 @ $2
No. 4 @ $4.50

Race 4
1. Chance of leading from here 15
2. First starter.Unknown quantity 1
3. Place chance 4
4. Could get on the bunny against these 33
5. Making up the numbers 2
6. Better than yellow worse than white 3
7. Had it drawn inside would be odds on 41
8. No Phar Lap here 2

No. 7 @ $2.40
No. 4 @ $3

Race 5
1. Almost certain leader 36
2. Quick beginner outside another quick beginner 23
3. Reserve comes out of here with no chance 1
4. Another quick beginner of a whole group 8
5. My goodness what a lot of speed to the 1st turn 7
6. Getting very messy out here 5
7. And the speedsters keep on coming 6
8. Because the guide says it's a wide runner 14

No. 1 @ $2.80
No. 2 @ $4.30

Race 6
1. Will be in the finish 11
2. Can see this one avoiding any trouble 17
3. Looks like the leader 32
4. Could get messy soon after the start 14
5. No way 1
6. The yellows twin 1
7. Might be the smokey out here 18
8. Expect to get too far back 6

No. 3 @ $3.10
No. 8 @ $5.50

That should be enough to see whether this type of study needs to go in the wheelie bin.
They certainly are an ordinary lot of greyhounds going around today.

Did find a big change to prices can occur when you check the scratchings.
If a quick beginner is replaced by a slow beginner,or not replaced at all,leaving a vacant box.
There will be a change to the expectations to the greyhounds on either side of the scratching.

[moeee]

Yes I know there's no point now except to show off how I did manage to make a profit.

Ballarat Greyhound quaddie races.

Race 5
1. JEFF'S SUB - Nothing in the form says he has a chance 1
2. ANOTHER WHISKY - beaten by a good one last time 13
3. PATH TO POWER - Got the runs on the board 28
4. INNER SPEED - Won't get around white.They may bump 14
5. SUPERMAN - bad box draw for him 11
6. PASSED HISTORY - His name says it all 1
7. JA JA - Must have a top chance of leading 20
8. LARUE - Better than most of these 12

SUGGESTION - Trifecta 3,7/3,4,7/2,3,4,7,8 Cost $8

Race 6.
1. ROCK COOL DADDY - Doesn't win a high proportion 10
2. SENNI WENDY - High strike rate but just a dog really 14
3. RUSERIOUS - Best beginner of those drawn inside 22
4. BONGOOLA DREAM - Hate dogs with erratic form 4
5. SIGN HERE - Not as good as some of these 11
6. VACANT BOX
7. KID PACINO - Much preferred from inside 8
8. EKALA MAN - Should overpower these 31

SUGGESTION - RUSERIOUS $5 Eachway

Race 7.
1. BOMBASTIC STORM - Won't lead 7
2. DUTCH DEAL - Killin' 'em at the minute 11
3. PYRENEES REGION - Not for me 3
4. ONE FOUR NUN - The reserve,NO 1
5. UPON A STAR - Here's our leader 23
6. BAKAROMA - But possibly here is our winner 14
7. Won't get around 15
8. Ballarat specialist 31

Suggestion No. 8 $15 Win

[SeeDee]

Probably just an abberation, or maybe not!!! But your handicapping on 14/12/05 must have done something right. If you boxed your top three dogs (not just your final selections) in a trifecta you would have hit 3 out of 6 (50% SR) and,according to WA TAB, would have returned $168.60 from $36 outlay, say 368% POT. I look forward to today's exciting instalment.

Don't throw it in the wheelie bin yet.

On that basis, my variation to your selections at Ballarat for today would have been:

Race 5 - Box 3,7,4
Race 6 - Box 8,3,2
Race 7 - Box 8,5,7

Best of luck.

[SeeDee]

Boy, was I confused. I should have checked the race card first. I didn't realise we were looking at history. Blew my observation out of the water though.

[moeee]

Hi Ayseedeesee!Thanks for the input,the faith and the idea.

Meadows Greyhounds Saturday night.

Race 5.
1. Triple Trio - Good stayer who comes home like a train 24
2. Linus - Couple of wins at Sale don't compare with city form 11
3. Camzaman - Bit better than the white 14
4. Ashlee Rhode - Runs okay without winning 9
5. Aaron's Vialie - Not here 1
6. Kinzaleigh - Runs well in its class but not against these 7
7. Walk My Way - Being the leader may allow it to pinch it 18
8. She's All In - Possibly get home for 2nd or 3rd 16

I'm doing this
1/3,7,8/2,3,4,7,8 - Cost $6
7/1,8/1,3,8 - Cost $2

Race 6.
1. Kirabilli Tiger - As good a chance as most 9
2. Sue Jane - Am considering it and the red to have a bumping duel 9
3. Mia Emma - With a clear run will figure in finish 7
4. Lygon Street - Rarely misses a place over this trip 14
5. Sign Here - Average dog you really have to put in your tips 11
6. Bundy Bill - One start for one win you gotta respect the trainer 17
7. Billy La Plume - Gets too far back 8
8. Bot Flyer - Unexpectadely pinged out last time.Can repeat 24

I'm doing this
8/4,6/4,5,6 Cost $2
Box 4,6,8 Cost $3

Race 7.
1. Dyna Caitlan - You gotta love a quick beginner from the cherry 12
2. Poetic Magic - And you gotta hate when the check is just as quick 11
3. Mystical Bree - And when the white is quick,who do you turn to? 10
4. Slamm - And the blue?.This trifecta will pay well. 10
5. September Glory - Box five ain't the place to be in this one 6
6. Wongawillisue - Here is your xmas present fans..NOT 23
7. Just Cool - Will get too far back 5
8. Leica - Just when you think you got the winner.23

I'm doing this
6,8/1,2,6,8/1,2,3,4,6,8 Cost $8

Race 8.
1. Majestic Flex - They reckon Dailly gets the worst of the Flex's 7
2. Curly Eno - Once in a row is a fluke,twice? he's hot! 14
3. Trew Touch - You think it's safe to collect,this'n flashes up 19
4. Billane Boy - Loves running third 7
5. General Deano - Not on it's last effort 8
6. Sisco Chick - Ordinary record here..NO! 3
7. Docker Dessie - Very hard to catch on his night 23
8. Barwidgee John - Killin' 'em at the minute 17

I'm doing this
3,7/2,3,7,8/2,3,7,8 Cost $6

Plus a Quaddie 1,7/8/6,8/3,7 Cost $4

Plus $6 Each/way Docker Dessie.

So that's $43.

[moeee]

Some scratchings caused these new bets

Meadows Greyhounds Saturday night.

Race 5.
9. Cyclone Entity - I don't know 4
2. Linus - Couple of wins at Sale don't compare with city form 12
3. Camzaman - Bit better than the white 16
4. Ashlee Rhode - Runs okay without winning 10
5. Aaron's Vialie - Not here 1
10. Rustic River - 3 unplaced runs here 20
7. Walk My Way - Being the leader may allow it to pinch it 20
8. She's All In - Possibly get home for 2nd or 3rd 18

I'm doing this
7,10/7,8,10/2,3,7,8,10 - Cost $6
Box 7,8,10 Cost $3

Plus a Quaddie 7,3,8,10/8/6,8/3,7 Cost $8


So that's $47.

[downbylaw]

Hi Ayseedeesee!Thanks for the input,the faith and the idea.

Meadows Greyhounds Saturday night.


Race 6.
1. Kirabilli Tiger - As good a chance as most 9
2. Sue Jane - Am considering it and the red to have a bumping duel 9
3. Mia Emma - With a clear run will figure in finish 7
4. Lygon Street - Rarely misses a place over this trip 14
5. Sign Here - Average dog you really have to put in your tips 11
6. Bundy Bill - One start for one win you gotta respect the trainer 17
7. Billy La Plume - Gets too far back 8
8. Bot Flyer - Unexpectadely pinged out last time.Can repeat 24

I'm doing this
8/4,6/4,5,6 Cost $2
Box 4,6,8 Cost $3

Race 7.
1. Dyna Caitlan - You gotta love a quick beginner from the cherry 12
2. Poetic Magic - And you gotta hate when the check is just as quick 11
3. Mystical Bree - And when the white is quick,who do you turn to? 10
4. Slamm - And the blue?.This trifecta will pay well. 10
5. September Glory - Box five ain't the place to be in this one 6
6. Wongawillisue - Here is your xmas present fans..NOT 23
7. Just Cool - Will get too far back 5
8. Leica - Just when you think you got the winner.23

I'm doing this
6,8/1,2,6,8/1,2,3,4,6,8 Cost $8

Race 8.
1. Majestic Flex - They reckon Dailly gets the worst of the Flex's 7
2. Curly Eno - Once in a row is a fluke,twice? he's hot! 14
3. Trew Touch - You think it's safe to collect,this'n flashes up 19
4. Billane Boy - Loves running third 7
5. General Deano - Not on it's last effort 8
6. Sisco Chick - Ordinary record here..NO! 3
7. Docker Dessie - Very hard to catch on his night 23
8. Barwidgee John - Killin' 'em at the minute 17

I'm doing this
3,7/2,3,7,8/2,3,7,8 Cost $6

Plus a Quaddie 1,7/8/6,8/3,7 Cost $4

Plus $6 Each/way Docker Dessie.

So that's $43.
Hi moeee, just a few questions here. In race 6 you rate n1 as as good as chance of any yet u leave it out of your tri. What is the reason for this? To keep the cost down or just gut feeling that it wouldnt be up there? In race 7 how do u figure just cool will get too far back? Off the top of my head i think she has been right up there at the finish and has been a lil unlucky in previous runs. In race 8 who is they that reckon dailly gets the worst of the flex dogs?

I dont mean for this post to sound like im having a go at you in any way im just interested in the way you come to your conclusions. Ill nick off and have a look at the results now and see how last night went. Hope you had a winner but looking at ur tips im not overly confident of a return.

Good Punting!!!

[moeee]

Hi downbylaw.
I start my assessment from box 1 and work my way up.
And being the first dog I looked at I wrote my comment on it without knowing what else was in the race.
As I looked at the other contenders,I went off the red.

Just Cool had a big number next to it's name in the runthrough at all its past starts using the Rocket Scientist.I thought it wouldn't be able to catch up with so many quick dogs in the race.

They are "They know who they are"
Can't and won't say.
But they are industry people.
They got massive knowledge,but financially don't do a helluva lot better than me.

You were right about my tips.WIPEOUT!

I'll be back but!

[downbylaw]

The only way is up!!!!

Good Punting.