Anyone rate MALCOLM

[rabbitz]

MALCOLM the up and coming star for John Hawkes/Nick Moraitis is in the Villiers in Sydney on saturday.Their main concern is whether he'll get the 1600m,but judging from the ease of his wins recently over 1400m he should get the trip.Other notable entries are Wild Queen and Sam sung a song,Don't know full field yet but maximum runners are 20.All of his previous wins have come with a late sprint while ridden quietly,so if he gets luck is he good enough to make the rise from Saturday class 6 1400 to Villliers
Cheers

[Chuck]

malcolm is 18th in order of entry for the villiers so he will get in it and win it!

[rabbitz]

You like him too eh Chuck,ready for next years footy/tipping comps.We'll need to lift our games I reckon,although my new strategy is to follow SPORTZ all year,he's one smart cookie.How far do you reckon MALCOLM will go,i feel sorry for NICK MORAITIS he needs a change of luck,thinking of sending him a crisco hamper for Christmas, LOL
cheers

[Mad Gambler]

I don't think he'll get the distance. I could be wrong. We'll just have to wait and see.


Mad Gambler

[rabbitz]

he's been cruising home virtually untouched over 1400m,he's broken the class record in his last two races,he needs to be about mid field out of traffic with clear running,but as you say we shall see
cheers

[maverick1993]

isnt he a full bro to Fieldsy ?? should get the mile and maybe alittle longer ..
Hawkes has been super patient with him and he'll reap the rewards for it..

[Sportz]

Listening to John Hawkes this morning and he's still not sure if he'll even run. And he wasn't sounding over-confident about Malcolm's chances either. Mind you, John Hawkes never does really.

Personally, at this early stage, I certainly have him rated on top, but I'd like to see the final field before I decide what I'm going to do. Wild Queen's in terrific form, but she seems to have been given a bit too much weight compared to horses like Malcolm, Aqua D'Amore, Uber, Benedetti, Spirit Of Tara, Spuruson & Hit The Road.

[Chuck]

You like him too eh Chuck,ready for next years footy/tipping comps.We'll need to lift our games I reckon,although my new strategy is to follow SPORTZ all year

i was thinking JD for Rugby, Sparkus for League and maybe old Mo for AFL......nah, i'm not sure what I'll do, maybe just go with you missus, lol

BTW are you enjoying sportal as wijan? I actually thought sportz was maildogg in the first week i was a member, but realised it can't be now...

[Sportz]

We'll need to lift our games I reckon, although my new strategy is to follow SPORTZ all year, he's one smart cookie.


What the....? I don't know about that!!!

I finished about 4th or 5th in each comp I think, so nothing really special about that, although I did actually change my strategy late in the year and finished off strongly.

Anyway, how come you're thinking about Football tipping in December???

[Sportz]

I actually thought sportz was maildogg in the first week i was a member, but realised it can't be now...

Hey, what's this all about? :)

[Chrome Prince]

he's been cruising home virtually untouched over 1400m,he's broken the class record in his last two races,he needs to be about mid field out of traffic with clear running,but as you say we shall see
cheers

Spot on Rabbitz,

He needs to be no further back than midfield to be a hope of winning.
You just can't spot good horses too big a break and hope to be twice as good.

[Chuck]

Hey, what's this all about? :)

see here for details.....big horse racing poster....knows everything going on....sportz?
http://forum.sportal.com.au/viewprofile.aspx?m=3904

am i allowed to post this?

[rabbitz]

i was thinking JD for Rugby, Sparkus for League and maybe old Mo for AFL......nah, i'm not sure what I'll do, maybe just go with you missus, lol

BTW are you enjoying sportal as wijan? I actually thought sportz was maildogg in the first week i was a member, but realised it can't be now...
dont go on sportal anymore,too many crappy opinions,think i'll just stay with the crap on here,its better the crap u know...LOL

GO Malcolm!

[Sportz]

Probably a better class of crappy opinions on here.

[Real Deal]

So is sportz maildogg? That would be funny! i joined up at sportal a while ago just to take the p1ss. Post crappy tips and really just stuff around. There are so many people that post on that site its a joke and to be honest i don't rate there tips one bit.

All my serious stuff goes into this site.

[Sportz]

No way. He's only 23 years old apparently. I've been following races for longer than that!!!

I only joined that forum yesterday after I saw Chuck's post about it.

[Real Deal]

Sportz i would not waste my time unless you have joined to cause a bit of chaos. Guaranteed on that forum to be a topic once a week on who is better than who and what tipsters are good and which ones are bad. All they do is argue on that site, i am still yet to find anything of any value to come out of it.

Look for jockeys using me at about the 200!

[Sportz]

Just had a bit of a look around really. Probably won't post there much if at all.

[bl4dez]

wont win

[rabbitz]

Why???

[Percentum]

For what it's worth fellas, my tips are Aqua D'amore from Precise Timing. I do a thing based on numbers though and numbers aren't good at nuances.
I'm reminded of a line in a 1940s film about a young doctor who says of his tutor (Dr MacFarlane): 'MacFarlane taught me the mathematics of anatomy but he couldn't teach me the poetry of medicine.' Malcolm, of course, must be considered an excellent chance but there are a few unknowns about him. I suppose that's why it's called 'gambling'.

[Real Deal]

Picking numbers with a dart and dartboard is gambling.


We are a little bit more advanced thn that, cmon percentum.

[Sportz]

6-4.25 CANON BERNBOROUGH VILLIERS STAKES 1600 M
1 WILD QUEEN Gai Waterhouse L Beasley 13 57.5
2 VANQUISHED Bede Murray G Boss 11 55.5
3 PRECISE TIMING Ross Stitt D McLellan 10 54.5
4 FIERY VENTURE Gai Waterhouse H Bowman 9 53.5
5 SAM SUNG A SONG Gerald Ryan Z Purton 18 53.5
6 UBER David Payne M Bell 2 53
7 AQUA D'AMORE Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 6 52.5
8 CATECLIPSE Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 1 52.5
9 HAVANA WIND Gai Waterhouse J Innes 20 52.5
10 SEUL AMOUR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson R Wiggins 4 52.5
11 SPIRIT OF TARA Gerald Ryan J Penza 7 52.5
12 WEST COUNTRY Steve Englebrecht Ms K O'Hara (a) 8 52
13 BENEDETTI Tony Noonan D Dunn 16 52
14 FORCE APOLLO John Hawkes J Ford 5 52
15 VILLA BLED Clarry Conners K Fujii (a) 17 52
16 MALCOLM John Hawkes D Beadman 19 52
17 FIRE AT WILL Barbara Joseph R Stewart 21 52
18 SPURUSON Rodney Ollerton A Pattillo 12 52
19 TRIPLE DEE John Hawkes R M Quinn 14 52
20 PEKALAN Albert Stapleford M A Cahill 3 52
21E HIT THE ROAD Jason McLachlan J Ford 15 52

[Percentum]

Hi Deal
I didn't express myself well I don't think. By numbers I meant lots of little pluses and minuses for various form factors i.e. numbers rather than watching videos etc where the little factors that can't be converted numerically are seen and used as part of the evaluation.

[Chuck]

MALCOLM and HIT THE ROAD to win

[Real Deal]

This is a massive massive call. MALCOLM cannot win from Barrier 19. There you go, i said it. Buggered if i know who will win it but i think to get this horse home the dazzla will need a career best ride.

[Sportz]

A lot of the other top fancies are drawn wide too.

[Sportz]

Sportsbet odds:

MALCOLM $3.20
AQUA DAMORE $6.50
WILD QUEEN $8.50
SAM SUNG A SONG $9.00
SPIRIT OF TARA $11.00
HIT THE ROAD (1E) $11.00
SPURUSON $13.00
BENEDETTI $17.00
FIERY VENTURE $21.00
UBER $21.00
CATECLIPSE $21.00
SEUL AMOUR $21.00
VANQUISHED $26.00
FORCE APOLLO $26.00
TRIPLE DEE $26.00
PEKALAN $26.00
PRECISE TIMING $35.00
VILLA BLED $61.00
FIRE AT WILL $61.00
HAVANA WIND $81.00
WEST COUNTRY $101.00

[umrum]

uber and sel amour e/w

[Sportz]

Uber and Benedetti do seem to be quite good value each way.

[Sportz]

Okay, don't laugh now.

I've been waiting for Havana Wind to start for some time. He's been training the place down at Randwick for a while now. Now, he's never done anything at all first up before, BUT that was over 1200m, not the more suitable 1600m. This is certainly a HUGE task, but he's also going to be HUGE odds, so who knows? He's certainly got the right trainer to do well over the Randwick mile. He might be able to sneak a place or something. If not, I still suspect their could be a good result around the corner for him in the next month or so.

At this stage, I'd probably rate them like this:
16 Malcolm
7 Aqua D'Amore
1 Wild Queen
6 Uber
13 Benedetti
9 Havana Wind

But that's leaving out Spirit Of Tara, Hit The Road, Spuruson and Sam Sung A Song. It's very tough. Have to study it a bit more.

[mad]

Nice barrier draw this weekend for old Malcolm.

Section C, Row 15, Seat a18.

[bl4dez]

AQUA DAMORE
CATECLIPSE

[Chrome Prince]

The barrier will not be a disadvantage for Malcolm, in fact it will be an advantage and a better price ;)

He's not a leader.

I can see Beadman dropping out to last, making his way to midfield and then coming home in the final 400m.

If he stays at the tail, he just won't run them down unless they go extremely hard early.

[bl4dez]

thats what im thinking
same thing with sam sung a song

[rabbitz]

i think if hawkes really wants to win he wont let him get too far back,i think malcolm could be vulnerable on slow,whats the weather

[Real Deal]

Sportz, I respect that!

Seeing something you like in a horse and telling us about it. Currently $81 to win on Fixed odds and drawn barrier 20 surely it is a massive ask. I think if Malcolm cannot win from 19 then Havana Wind is up a creek without a paddle from barrier 20. At the odds they are offering and going on your past tips and advise i guess my exotics just got a little larger for the villers.

[Sportz]

Hope I haven't cost you some money there, Real Deal. :o

Look, realistically, the chances are that he won't quite be up to it, but I personally reckon that $81 is way over the odds. In any case, as I said, I'll be following him over the next month or two.

[xptdriver]

Do they have parking cops at the Randwick car park..... If they do mal will have to be careful... ok crap joke

Having said that, I think he is good enough, but not at a silly price.. Wild Queen is not that far behind him IMO.. Me ol mate from up this way is going around in it as well, and his form has been magnificent... look for him to be finishing it off.. for those who dont know who I am talking about.. its that mighty cups horse Precise Timing.. I will be backing him at odds... he owes me nothin at all

I think Mal has a good chance to win, even taking the crap barrier into account, his form has been good, he has had 1 try at the distance and ran 3rd, 1400m and he would be 3's ON.. He is up a long way in class, from a 60K class 6 to a GR2 but will probably handle that.. they are the reasons I am not jumping in Boots'n'all..

I like Wild Queen with an impeccable record at the distance and good recent form as well as Precise Timing... His form speaks for itself...

My Ratings for the Race are

17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 16 MALCOLM 35
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 1 WILD QUEEN 31
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 13 BENEDETTI 28
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 21 HIT THE ROAD 27
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 2 VANQUISHED 27
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 3 PRECISE TIMING 27
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 7 AQUA D'AMORE 27
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 8 CATECLIPSE 26
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 19 TRIPLE DEE 26
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 9 HAVANA WIND 23
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 6 UBER 22
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 5 SAM SUNG A SONG 20
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 18 SPURUSON 20
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 14 FORCE APOLLO 19
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 4 FIERY VENTURE 19
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 11 SPIRIT OF TARA 18
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 20 PEKALAN 18
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 15 VILLA BLED 17
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 12 WEST COUNTRY 15
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 17 FIRE AT WILL 13
17/12/2005 4:25 RANDWICK 6 10 SEUL AMOUR 11
Good luck if you can find the winner

[Sportz]

How do your ratings figures work now, xpt? I remember your top picks used to have a rating of about 100 or so, but now only around 30. Is the margin of 4 between Malcolm and Wild Queen a big gap, small gap or about average?

[xptdriver]

How do your ratings figures work now, xpt? I remember your top picks used to have a rating of about 100 or so, but now only around 30. Is the margin of 4 between Malcolm and Wild Queen a big gap, small gap or about average?

Gday Sportz

It is a fair sort of gap.... If you want to make the top rater 100, just convert em.. attached is a file with the converted ratings and a price

I use the compressed numbers because they are easier for me to handle, and it takes way less work..

[Chrome Prince]

And don't forget, I reckon Triple Dee's right in this with a chance for a stable quinella, perhaps even a reverse exacta.

Often the most obvious chances are disappointing, and something comes out of the melting pot to surprise, so Sportz, you could do worse than your pick.

If you rate it, you'd be crazy to pass up the $81.00.

Racing is full of surprises - just ask my bank manager ;)

[Sportz]

It is a fair sort of gap.... If you want to make the top rater 100, just convert em.. attached is a file with the converted ratings and a price

I use the compressed numbers because they are easier for me to handle, and it takes way less work..

Yeah, that's all right. No worries.

[Chrome Prince]

A very good run by Malcolm, but he threw his chance to win away by not being closer.
All honours to the winner, but you just can't give good horses a start and hope to run them down in this class field. As stated before, he needed to be midfield coming into the straight.

The only horses that can run them down, are the horses that are miles superior. Malcolm is very very good, but he's not miles superior to this field.

[Sportz]

Sorry about Havana Wind :o , but I guess he gave a pretty good sight for a while considering his price. Anyway, I had the first 2 rated on top so I went okay. Aqua D'Amore was nice value!

How did everyone else go?

[rabbitz]

its easy to blame the jockey,but overall i was happy with malcolm,5 wide + from the 400m if not before,he will win some good races....thought redoudtable in melbourne was a good fighting win
cheers

[Sportz]

Okay, don't laugh now.

I've been waiting for Havana Wind to start for some time. He's been training the place down at Randwick for a while now. Now, he's never done anything at all first up before, BUT that was over 1200m, not the more suitable 1600m. This is certainly a HUGE task, but he's also going to be HUGE odds, so who knows? He's certainly got the right trainer to do well over the Randwick mile. He might be able to sneak a place or something. If not, I still suspect there could be a good result around the corner for him in the next month or so.


Okay, not huge odds today (big difference from the Villiers), but I hope a few of you followed up. I certainly did. I was sure there was a win coming up for him. :)