Dogs

[Mad Gambler]

I did a study of my dog ratings and form 200 races rated the top 3 rated dogs won 143 out of the 200 races. a strike rate of 66.4%


Mad Gambler

[punter57]

And the profit?

[wesmip1]

Mad Gambler,

What was the POT though ? Thats the important figure.

Good Luck with it.

[Mad Gambler]

There was a total of 578 selections. And the return was $503.90 for a 12.8% loss. I'm sure with a bit of work i can turn the loss into a profit.


Mad Gambler

[wesmip1]

Mad Gambler,

I assume the loss was on level staking ? ie with $1 bets each race had $3 placed on it ($1 for each of the top 3 rated dogs )

Good luck with it.

[wesmip1]

Hey Mad Gambler,

Just thinking out loud .... Is your POT any better if you ony take the top 2 rated dogs, or only the top rated dog ?

Good Luck.

[Oaksnaf]

Meadows race 1: #4 today over 600m

Roughie #7

Selections: #4,7,6,1

Have fun

[wesmip1]

Oaksnaf,

Choose a race a bit further out and I might be able to do some form analysis before it starts.

First race after a very quick look would have been 6 or 7.

Good Luck.

[Oaksnaf]

Oaksnaf,

Choose a race a bit further out and I might be able to do some form analysis before it starts.

First race after a very quick look would have been 6 or 7.

Good Luck.
Ok ill do that now, i did have comments to the first race, but forgot to post. A bit late now anyway lol:

Coming down town to compete in the DownTown Cleaning 600m race at The Meadows, is Man About Town who will shoot out of box one, although Man About Town out of Placard – Aqua Line hasn’t showed the greatest early speed in his short career. Despite being familiar to The Meadows Mad About Town has yet to see the 600m and it could be the turning point connections have been looking for.

Lady Laganore has been around the prize money in her last few starts despite the margin between her and the winner. Trained at the Devon Meadows Lady Laganore possesses the ability to lead early and rail on home, however the distance will have to be a query.

One of the better chances is Hotline News from box three, her two placing’s at Traralgon were recorded in respectable times after beginning well over the 513m track. Her most recent form suggests the distance will suit.

Although a slow starter Maggie’s Alarm boasts an impressive finishing burst over the 600m distance at Geelong and the 699m at Cranbourne and Warragul. The distance will not be a trouble and she has seen better competition in her last few starts and should prove hard to stop.

Almost a month has passed since Moonambel Holly has had a run. Her two career placing’s have been over this trip so distance wont be a query, however returning after a month’s absence will prove to be the telling tale of her result. Certainly not without a chance.

Redcastle Patti has scored all of her three placing’s in her last four starts so there is nothing wrong with her form and this race looks to suit after finishing near the front in respectable times at Bendigo and The Meadows over 545 and 525 respectively. Should run a competitive race.

Who’s the boss. Boss Lady is the boss and has come to score her first win after an impressive second place at Sandown last start. Has the ability to lead early on from out wide and the extra distance should suit Boss Lady who will be keen to score her first win,

Running in the pink will be Ourgirl Mary who finished third over this distance last month, although her form of late might suggest a similar showing might be later on in her career.

Selections: 4,7,6,1


I was bored. Ill pick a race in the middle of the card for you then. Race 7.

[wesmip1]

Oaksnaf,

If you look at Race 4 I like Number 6 again.....

OK Race 7 ... quick analysis indicates that Number 2 WONGAWILLISUE and Number 5 BLACK PRESENCE have the speed for the race. The scratching just inside BLACK PRESENCE has reduced the bad drawing in box 5. Looking at WONGAWILLISUE shows that she is not good in box 2 ( having never won from there) and prefers the wider alleys. Number 3 BOB's BREAK Also looks a good chance especially with the scratching as well. Number 1 CAROLYN FLYER has been unlucky recently and should be able to improve with the good box draw.

Overall I think Number 3 BOBS BREAK and Number 5 BLACK PRESENCE show the best value as I think WONGAWILLISUE will be short odds.

Race 7 Rating Order : 3,5,2,1,6,7,8

Tips : 3 or 5 to win

Good Luck.

[Oaksnaf]

Tonights Christmas final at Ballarat race 7) ill be backing #3 Caruso

[Oaksnaf]

Tonights Christmas final at Ballarat race 7) ill be backing #3 Caruso
Yep won at $3.80 was happy with that one.

[baco60]

Stung ones twice shy
22Dec05

THE Queensland TAB believes Australia's corporate bookmakers will be forced to change the way they bet on greyhounds after a sophisticated sting at the Parklands dogs netted a punting syndicate about $1 million.

The Lucy's Light betting fiasco has been hailed by industry veterans as a modern-day sting.

Gaming giant Tabcorp is now demanding an Australia-wide ban on bookmakers being allowed to copy TAB totalisator dividends.

Northern Territory corporate bookmaking firms lost $500,000 in the sting, believed to have been orchestrated by a former Sydney dog bookie.

Shattered Adelaide bookmaker Curly Seal yesterday revealed he alone lost a massive $600,000.

"If you said (I lost) $600,000 that wouldn't be far off the mark," said Mr Seal.

UNiTAB delayed declaring the dividend in the controversial Gold Coast staying race on Tuesday after the hot favourite, Lucy's Light, eased in the market from $1.30 to the remarkable dividend of $13 when the dogs jumped from the traps.

UNiTAB declared the extraordinary dividend, saying the sting was 'clever and devious' but legal.

In what was a six-month planning operation, a punting syndicate waited for Queensland's best stayer, Lucy's Light, to race in a weak staying event at Parklands. The dog won by eight lengths and nearly broke the track record, after copping an early check.

Three minutes before the race, Lucy's Light was paying $1 for the win, or money back, on the Queensland TAB.

It was about this time the syndicate placed bets with many leading bookmaking agencies, which pay out on the final Queensland TAB dividend.

Just after the bets had been placed with the betting agencies, the syndicate put five separate $15,000 bets on every runner except Lucy's Light.

The inflated win pool five times the normal amount allowed Lucy's Light to drift out to odds of 12-1.

After Lucy's Light bolted in, the betting agencies faced a massive payout after the win.

UNiTAB's wagering boss Shane Adams said yesterday there had been nothing illegal about the sting.

"Basically, from our point of view, there were five dogs heavily backed to beat Lucy's Light and they simply lost their money," he said.

"Obviously, if they have bet elsewhere and received a much better price on what was clearly a $1.30 chance, good luck to them.

"The dog still had to win."

The punters who received odds of $13 were not complaining.

"It's been a very clever exercise but you have to understand that from our point of view, no one has done anything wrong," said Mr Adams.

"They just backed five losers with us.

"I think the fallout from this will be that corporate bookmakers change the way they operate.

"I'm surprised it hasn't been done before this."

Speculation is rife that the syndicate boss is a former top Sydney bookie, now based in Queensland.

Tabcorp wagering boss Michael Piggott described the incident as a disgrace and warned of the ongoing threat to the integrity of TAB pools and racing if this type of bookmak-ing service was allowed to continue.

"Although bookmakers lost out in this case, the average TAB punter and bookmakers' customer is at risk from such bookmaking activities," he said.

"Tabcorp has warned about this type of TAB pool manipulation for years.

"Thankfully, governments in all other jurisdictions except the Northern Territory have now outlawed TAB-odds betting by bookmakers.

"We see it as manipulative and totally unfair."

The syndicate set up legitimate betting accounts with several interstate betting firms including Centreracing, Sportingbet, Sportsbet, Betezy and Mr Seal in Adelaide.

Centreracing's Chr-istian Sawyer said it was the biggest sting there had ever been on a dog race in Australia

[darkydog2002]

We will see poor old "curly" at the pie stall now.

Dont worry "Curly" You can share my pie. /
I dont look down my nose at the down and out.

Cheers.
darky.

[KennyVictor]

If I remember one of Kenchar's old posts about the way he bets he said this sort of thing on a smaller scale is what he bases some of his selections on. One (or more) horses being backed in to inflate the price of another. It's just that these guys did it a bit more seriously. Good on them, any angle as long as it's legal and doesn't involve pulling horses or whatever is fair game. It's what the whole betting game is about.
(Apologies Kenchar if I remember your old post wrong).

KV

[DR RON]

KV, you are right, I am sure that it these sorts of things on a smaller scale then Kenchar keeps an eye out for. I once remember a pre post favourite in the morning paper drifting out to 25's and winning. The only reason I could put it down to was that the track condition changed from good to slow and the horse had poor form in the wet.

[moeee]

Good onya Bacon69er.
Thanks for that.
Makes me feel less miserable when I lose now.

[moeee]

And Oaksnaf.Id you gonna make comments about the runners in a race,please try to establish the possible chances.
You're reading was excellent but from a punting perspective ,all the dogs bar one had a great chance.

[kenchar]

If I remember one of Kenchar's old posts about the way he bets he said this sort of thing on a smaller scale is what he bases some of his selections on. One (or more) horses being backed in to inflate the price of another. It's just that these guys did it a bit more seriously. Good on them, any angle as long as it's legal and doesn't involve pulling horses or whatever is fair game. It's what the whole betting game is about.
(Apologies Kenchar if I remember your old post wrong).

KV
KV,
You remembered the method exactly, but is always midweek with small pools, ( it's the only way it can work), but the difference to what I look for is a person or syndicate that is trying to gain an extra 1 or 2 points, and to gain that their LOST investment is only very minimal.
I take my hat off to the guys that pulled the sting off, BUT what no one has even thought of it was a dog race and strange things do happen.
If the dog had got bowled over would all of the whining bookies have said anything, I bet not.
The syndicate would have lost a massive amount if this happened.

Cheers.

[Oaksnaf]

For the sale cup on Monday over 650 metres i will be backing #5 Lord Monelli

[KennyVictor]

For the sale cup on Monday over 650 metres i will be backing #5 Lord Monelli
And I suppose one of us has to cough up the last minute 15,000 for the other 5 dogs. :-)
KV

[moeee]

For the sale cup on Monday over 650 metres i will be backing #5 Lord Monelli

Eight dogs with seven top chances based on ability.
Pick the dog running 2nd or 3rd at the jump and you got the winner